World agriculture:

      towards 2015/2030

An FAO perspective


Foreword by the Director General of FAO 
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Explanatory Notes
Contributors to the book
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Introduction and overview 
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1.1 Introduction
1.2 Overview

2. Prospects for food and nutrition 
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2.1 The broad picture: historical developments and present situation
2.2 The outlook for food and nutrition to 2015 and 2030
2.3 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption
2.4 Concluding remarks

3. Prospects for aggregate agriculture and major commodity groups 
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3.1 Aggregate agriculture: historical trends and prospects
3.2 Cereals
3.3 Livestock commodities
3.4 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products
3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains
3.6 Main export commodities of the developing countries

4. Crop production and natural resource use 
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4.1 Introduction
4.2 Sources of growth in crop production
4.3 Agricultural land
4.4 Irrigation and water use
4.5 Land-yield combinations for major crops
4.6 Input use

5. Livestock production 
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5.1 Introduction
5.2 Consumption of livestock products
5.3 Production
5.4 Major perspective issues and possible policy responses
5.5 Concluding remarks

6. Forestry 
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6.1 Introduction
6.2 The present state of forests
6.3 Forces shaping forestry and areas of change
6.4 Probable changes up to 2015 and 2030
6.5 Major perspective issues in world forestry
6.6 Where is forestry heading?

7. Fisheries 
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7.1 Introduction
7.2 World fisheries at the end of the 1990s
7.3 Plausible developments in world fisheries
7.4 Concluding remarks

8. Agriculture in poverty alleviation and economic development 
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8.1 Introduction
8.2 Internationally agreed poverty reduction targets
8.3 The main international strategies for poverty reduction: a summary assessment
8.4 Micro and macro evidence on the impact of undernourishment
8.5 Agricultural and rural non-farm growth

9. Agricultural trade, trade policies and the global food system 
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9.1 Introduction
9.2 Long-term trends in the pattern of global agricultural trade
9.3 The trade policy environment for agriculture
9.4 Towards free trade in agriculture: what is important from a 30-year perspective?
9.5 Beyond the traditional trade agenda: emerging long-term trade policy issues
9.6 Summary and conclusions

10. Globalization in food and agriculture 
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10.1 Globalization as an ongoing process
10.2 The main features of globalization and the correlates of success
10.3 Some options to integrate developing countries better
10.4 Concluding remarks

11. Selected issues in agricultural technology 
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11.1 The scope of yield increases
11.2 Technologies in support of sustainable agriculture
11.3 Organic agriculture
11.4 Agricultural biotechnology
11.5 Directions for agricultural research

12. Agriculture and the environment: changing pressures, solutions and trade-offs 
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12.1 Introduction
12.2 Major trends and forces
12.3 Changing pressures on the environment
12.4 Current and emerging solutions
12.5 Physical and economic trade-offs
12.6 Concluding remarks

13. Climate change and agriculture: physical and human dimensions 
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13.1 Introduction
13.2 Agriculture as a moderator of climate change
13.3 Climate change impacts on agriculture
13.4 Implications of climate change for food security
13.5 Technological and policy options
13.6 Conclusions

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1. Countries and commodities
2. Summary methodology of the quantitative analysis and projections
3. Statistical tables

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All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Publishing Management Service, Information Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to

ISBN 92 5 104835 5 (FAO paperback)
1 84407 007 7 (Earthscan paperback)
1 84407 008 5 (Earthscan hardback)

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies, their products or brand names does not imply any endorsement by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In the presentation of statistical material, countries are, where appropriate, aggregated in the following main economic groupings: “developed countries” (including the developed market economies or “industrial countries” and the transition countries) and “developing countries”. The designations “developed” and “developing” economies are intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country.

© FAO 2003