Japan, as one of the largest importers of foods and agricultural products, is a big player in the world agricultural market. Over the last several decades, changes in the Japanese food consumption pattern have altered the food balance sheets in Japan. Japanese have been eating less rice but more meat, and all these trends have important implications for predicting the future agricultural trade patterns between Japan and its trading partners. Understanding Japanese food demand structure is critical for the assessment of Japan's future food balance and its implied effects on the world food market.
The present study by Chern, Ishibashi, Taniguchi, and Tokoyama represents one of the most comprehensive investigations on Japanese food demand structure. There have been relatively few studies on food demand in Japan in the literature. Therefore, the study provides timely and useful information for assessing the future demand for food in this country. There are several unique features of this study. First, the authors use household survey data, which have been rarely used in the study of food demand in Japan. The use of household data enables the authors to model food demand with demographic variables. The estimates of income elasticity obtained from cross-sectional household data should be more credible than those obtained from time-series data. Second, the study employs alternative modelling and estimation procedures. The authors compare the results from single equation and demand system estimation, and from different estimators dealing with the problem associated with households having zero consumption of certain food items. The estimated demand elasticities are useful for those who work on various forecasting models including Japan as well as for agricultural policymakers.
The study focuses on rice and meat, two of the most important food categories for assessing the Japanese food consumption pattern. Rice is one of the most contested agricultural products in the trade negotiation under the World Trade Organization (WTO). Frequently rice in Asian countries is considered as a staple food. This study provides evidence on whether or not rice has become an inferior good in Japan. The meat model will help us understand the important factors affecting Japanese meat consumption pattern. These econometric results should be useful for assessing the future trend of world food consumption patterns because the Japanese consumption pattern can be considered as a preceding model for other Asian countries.
This report contains much descriptive statistics and econometric results. The descriptive statistics by demographic and income groups provide a qualitative assessment of the Japanese food consumption pattern while the econometric results can be used for a quantitative assessment. This study represents only another milestone in analysing the Japanese food demand structure. Since no study can be perfect, the results contained in this report need further validation. Hopefully, this study would motivate and generate more analyses on food demand estimation in Japan and perhaps, more debates on those key demand elasticities for rice, meat and other food items.
Prabhu Pingali
Director
FAO Agriculture and Economic
Development Analysis Division
Rome, Italy
