The challenges ahead include the elimination of under-nutrition, coping with continued and changing demand for food and reaching a sustainable level of natural resource development and management. It is clear that given current rates of progress in addressing food insecurity, both irrigated and rainfed agriculture will need to be rethought in order to close current and projected gaps in food needs. At the same time management approaches will need to make room for transfers to other competing uses, including municipal water supply and environmental flows. It is in this sense that irrigated agriculture is under pressure to perform as a service to agriculture, not as an end in itself. This will involve shift in approach from a supply, or input- driven activity, to a much more demand responsive activity.
The contribution of rainfed agriculture is equally important and a strategic balance between irrigated and rainfed production often needs to be found. This will involve improving and intensifying rainfed farming systems through conservation agriculture, including soil moisture management as fertilizer application.
Six areas of progressive change are emerging:
In this sense there are positive opportunities for improved agricultural water use. In promoting better water use, the behaviour of the individual farmer is key, but water is only one of many farm inputs and its local economic and environmental significance needs to be put into perspective. Government agencies in developed and developing countries will need to develop into that of sophisticated economic and environmental regulators to overcome problems of food production and natural resource depletion. Therefore the continued use of water for agriculture has to be predicated on extracting the value from existing infrastructure and producing into effective markets. Agriculture and water policy have their respective roles to play here and but they need to be much more effectively 'joined up'.
However, certain institutional constraints can be expected to persist. The incentives to manage demand for irrigation services will remain weak (some subsidies to water and energy for pumping can be expected to remain in place) and water is only one of many micro-economic decisions that farmers have to take. The sheer scale of the asset base and the intensity of vested interests may well reinforce institutional rigidities for some time to come. Equally, the distorting effects of price support and input subsidies will continue to dampen private initiatives that might otherwise flourish.
With these considerations in mind, it is possible to identify three keys for unlocking the water potential in agriculture, modernization, governance and investment.