FAO/GIEWS - Food Outlook No.4 - October 2001 p. 2

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

	1997/98	1998/99	1999/2000	2000/2001	2001/02 forecast	Change 2001/02 over 2000/2001
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . million tonnes . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . )					(percentage)
Wheat	613	598	591	585	565	-3.4
Coarse grains	904	915	887	873	885	1.4
Rice, milled	387	390	409	398	392	-1.5
(paddy)	(579)	(584)	(612)	(596)	(587)	-1.5
All cereals (incl. milled rice)	1 905	1 903	1 887	1 856	1 842	-0.7
Developing countries	1 005	1 043	1 038	999	998	-0.1
Developed countries	900	859	849	856	844	-1.5
WORLD IMPORTS 2/
Wheat	102	98	109	103	104	1.0
Coarse grains	89	97	102	105	103	-1.6
Rice (milled)	28	25	22	22	23	2.5
All cereals	218	220	233	230	230	-0.1
Developing countries	159	161	168	168	171	2.0
Developed countries	59	59	65	63	59	-5.7
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/	6.2	11.3	11.1	10.0
WORLD UTILIZATION
Wheat	589	589	591	597	606	1.5
Coarse grains	890	893	894	906	917	1.2
Rice (milled)	381	390	404	407	410	0.8
All cereals	1 860	1 872	1 889	1 910	1 933	1.2
Developing countries	1 104	1 129	1 147	1 160	1 174	1.2
Developed countries	756	743	742	750	759	1.2
Per Caput Food Use	(. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . kg/year . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . )
Developing countries	168	168	169	169	169	0.0
Developed countries	131	131	131	132	132	-0.2
WORLD STOCKS 4/	(. . . . . . . . . . . ... . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
Wheat	258	265	262	250	207	-17.0
Coarse grains	270	288	280	249	218	-12.4
Rice (milled)	152	156	163	155	137	-11.6
All cereals	681	709	705	654	562	-14.0
Developing countries	512	535	541	490	426	-13.1
Developed countries	169	174	164	164	137	-16.6
EXPORT PRICES 5/	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . .. .. . . . . . )
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/	316	315	253	207	177^6/	-16.9^7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 Hard Winter)	142	120	112	128	127^8/	7.6^7/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)	112	95	91	86	92^8/	18.8^7/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt	11.7	9.3	13.7	15.0	15.0^8/	-8.0^7/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 9/	(. . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . ... . . . . )
Roots & tubers production 1/	388	414	422	428	430	0.4
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/	780	810	813	774	761	-1.6
Per caput production (kg.) 10/	216	220	218	205	199	-2.8
Cereal imports 2/	78.6	73.5	72.9	70.6	72.8	3.1
of which: Food aid	5.5	8.4	7.5	7.7
Proportion of cereal import	(. . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . ... . . . . )
covered by food aid	7.0	11.4	10.3	10.9

Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.

1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June shipments. 4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ July/June. 6/ Average of quotations for January-September 2001. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Average of quotations for July-September 2001. 9/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 445 in 1999), which in accordance with the guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocations of food aid. 10/ Including milled rice.