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1/ Bold print is used for countries with unfavourable crop prospects for current crops and/or uncovered shortfalls in food supplies in the current marketing year requiring exceptional and/or emergency assistance. Countries affected or threatened by successive bad crops and/or food shortages are marked with an asterisk (*).
Early prospects are favourable for the recently planted 2001/02 winter cereal crops to be harvested from June. Planting had been disrupted by weeks of dry weather but torrential rains in early November, particularly in the large grain growing areas in the west, helped restore much needed moisture and thus allowed ploughing and sowing operations to be resumed. The rains, however, resulted in heavy flooding and mudslides, which caused serious damage to urban housing and infrastructure, principally in the capital city, killed 720 people and affected more than 50 000 others. Emergency assistance is being provided by the international community.
Despite an anticipated good wheat outturn, imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are expected to be some 4.9 million tonnes, compared to 5.2 million tonnes in the previous year, in response to strong domestic demand. Food aid from the international community is being provided to some 155 000 refugees from Western Sahara.
Planting of the 2002 irrigated wheat crop has been completed under normal weather conditions. Total area is provisionally estimated at a slightly above-average 1.05 million hectares. Harvesting is due to start from April and early prospects are favourable.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at about 6.1 million tonnes, close to last year�s level.
Below-normal rains delayed sowing of the 2001/02 winter wheat and barley. Total plantings close to last year�s below- average level are reported, with the exception of some areas in the north and east and in the Chaouia-Doukkala zone which received abundant rains at the end of December. The much awaited rains also helped improve pasture conditions. Harvest prospects for the country as a whole are uncertain as irrigation has been restricted in some of the drought affected areas.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are provisionally forecast to be somewhat below the 2000/01 imports of some 3.3 million tonnes. Barley imports are also anticipated to be close to the 2000/01 level.
Planting of the 2001/02 wheat and barley crops has been affected by below-normal precipitation, particularly in the central and southern growing areas where the area planted is reported at below-average levels. Plantings in the north are considered average. Harvesting will start in June and below- average wheat and barley outputs are tentatively forecast.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at about 1.4 million tonnes, up from 1.1 million tonnes in marketing year 2000/01.
Harvesting of the secondary maize crop is complete and output is expected to be average. Land preparation is underway for the first maize crop to be planted with the expected onset of the rains in March. Reflecting favourable growing conditions, the 2001 cereal crop, mostly maize and sorghum, is estimated at 900 000 tonnes, some 100 000 tonnes lower than the record of the previous year but slightly above average. The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory; markets are well supplied and prices have decreased slightly. Cereal imports for domestic use and re-exports in 2001 have been estimated at 138 000 tonnes including 11 000 tonnes of food aid.
The 2001 aggregate cereal production has been estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission at 2. 80 million tonnes, 22 percent higher than the previous year and 15 percent above average.
The tight food supply situation in some areas in 2001 due to poor harvests in 2000 is expected to improve. The national food security reserves which were depleted in 2001 are expected to be replenished to the desired level of 35 000 tonnes. However, localized food shortages may persist in areas which had poor crops due to the early end of the rains.
Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 (November/October), mostly rice and wheat, is forecast at 170 000 tonnes, including 20 000 tonnes as food aid.
Production of maize (virtually the only cereal produced in the country) in 2001 has been estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in mid-October at 18 680 tonnes. This is 23 percent lower than the previous year but some 5 000 tonnes higher than average.
In anticipation of a tight food supply situation in several areas, the Government has appealed for international food assistance, as well as agricultural inputs.
Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year is forecast at 93 000 tonnes, with food aid accounting for more than 50 percent.
In early January 2002 the country experienced unseasonable heavy rains and floods which caused damage to infrastructure and farmland. An assessment of the damage is being organized locally.
Reflecting above-average rains in September, prospects for the secondary sorghum recession crop, to be harvested soon, are good and pastures are abundant.
Favourable growing conditions in 2001 resulted in an excellent cereal crop, estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission at 1.24 million tonnes, more than one-third higher than the previous year and 16 percent above average.
As a result, the food supply situation should improve, specially in the chronically food deficit areas in the Sahelian zone which harvested poor crops in 2000. However, some 143 000 people in the Sudanian zone are at risk of food shortages following floods that affected 144 0000 hectares of arable land.
Import requirement of cereals (wheat and rice) in 2001/02 marketing year (November/October) is estimated at 65 000 tonnes including 10 000 tonnes of food aid.
Land preparation is underway in the south for the sowing of the main maize crop in March. Production of cereals (mostly maize and rice) in 2001 is tentatively estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, slightly more than the previous year and above average.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. There are some 120 000 Liberian refugees still in the country, mainly in the west.
The country harvested a record cereal crop for the second consecutive year. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission estimated the aggregate 2001 cereal output at 198 600 tonnes, 13 percent above 2000 and 49 percent above the average of the last five years. The increase in production was due to generally favourable growing conditions and a significantly larger area planted to cereals. Increased production is also reported for the major cash crops. Groundnut output increased 8 percent to some 149 600 tonnes.
Following three consecutive years of bumper harvests, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory and markets are well supplied. Like Cape Verde, the country was hit by unseasonable torrential rains and floods and an assessment of the damage is being organized locally.
Cereal import requirement for the marketing year 2001/02 (November/October) is forecast at 123 000 tonnes.
Land preparation for the main maize crop, to be harvested from July, is underway. Dry weather from August 2001 in some areas, mainly in the north, seriously affected the main season cereal crop harvested in October last year. The secondary season cereal crop, recently harvested, was also adversely affected. The food outlook for 2002 is unfavourable, particularly for vulnerable groups in rural areas of the north.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission is currently in the country to assess the 2001/02 food production, the overall food supply situation and estimate commercial import and food aid requirements in 2002.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory following satisfactory harvests in 2000 and 2001. Markets are well supplied, except in the south-east where recurrent rebel incursions from Sierra Leone continue to adversely affect agricultural and marketing activities. The presence of a large refugee population and the persistent instability in the sub-region have exacted a heavy toll on the country. Armed clashes in and around the country have also resulted in increasing numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs). A UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal was launched on 26 November 2001 to assist the country to cope with the serious humanitarian situation.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission last October estimated 2001 cereal production at some 164 000 tonnes, 3 percent lower than the previous year but 3 percent above average.
Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 (November/October) is forecast at 70 000 tonnes, including 10 000 tonnes of food aid.
Reflecting generally favourable weather and a relatively calm security situation, the output of the 2001 paddy crop is estimated slightly above the 183 000 tonnes produced in the previous year. However, production has not fully recovered from several years of civil war and the country continues to require food assistance.
The general security situation has deteriorated in recent weeks, with the Government declaring a state of emergency on 8 February 2002. The number of internally displaced people is increasing, and with it the increasing need for assistance.
Seasonably dry conditions prevail. Prospects for off-season irrigated or recession crops are favourable and pastures are abundant. Reflecting adequate growing conditions, the aggregate 2001 cereal production was estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission at 2. 86 million tonnes, 20 percent more than the previous year and significantly above average. Maize production almost doubled compared with 223 000 tonnes harvested in the previous year, while sorghum and paddy outputs increased by 17 percent and 13 percent respectively to 695 000 tonnes and 840 000 tonnes.
The overall food situation is satisfactory. Markets are well supplied and prices are stable.
Import requirement in cereals in 2001/02(November/October) is estimated at 90 000 tonnes, including 5 000 tonnes of wheat as food aid.
Unseasonably heavy rains and cold weather which affected the regions of Brakna, Trarza and Gorgol on 9-11 January caused casualties and left thousands of people homeless. More than 120 000 head of livestock died and 3 000 tonnes of rice just harvested were damaged. Prices of cereals which were already higher than a year ago, have risen considerably in these regions.
A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission in October 2001 estimated aggregate cereal production in 2001 at some 160 000 tonnes, lower than both the previous year and average. This decrease was mostly due to inadequate availability of irrigation water due to the low water level in the Senegal river which reached the flood level only in early September. By contrast, production in low-lying areas has increased compared to 2000 as all operational dams reached over 70 percent of capacity.
The food supply situation continues to be very tight and civil distress has been reported, notably in the Senegal river valley and in the Aftout. Already, 79 communes in Gorgol, Brakna, Takant, Adrar, Trarza and Hodh El Chargoui have been identified as at risk of food shortages.
Cereal import requirement including re-exports in the marketing year ending October 2002 is estimated at 279 000 tonnes, including 22 000 tonnes of food aid.
Reflecting favourable growing conditions and availability of agricultural inputs, cereal production in 2001 was estimated by a joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission at a record 3.2 million tonnes, 48 percent higher than the poor crop in the previous year and about one-third more than average. Most of the increase came from millet which increased by some 0.75 million tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes.
Consequently, the food supply situation should improve from the unfavourable harvest in the previous year and farmers should be able to replenish their stocks. Prices of cereals have decreased significantly. The Government should also be able to replenish the national food security reserve to the desired level of 35 000 tonnes.
Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 (November/October) is estimated at some 320 000 tonnes, almost half the volume imported in the previous year.
Land preparation is underway in the south for the sowing of the first maize crop due to start in March with the arrival of rains. Production of cereals in 2001 is tentatively estimated at some 24 million tonnes, higher than both the previous year and the average.
The food supply situation is tight in several areas notably in the states of Benue, Nasarawa and Taraba as a result of communal conflicts. As these are some of the most important food producing areas, the adverse situation could seriously threaten national food security.
Unseasonably heavy rains and cold weather which affected the northern regions of Saint Louis and Louga between 9-11 January caused casualties and left thousands of people homeless. In addition, more than 2 000 hectares of arable land was damaged and an estimated 470 000 head of livestock died. Significant losses of food, including rice and vegetables, are also reported. On 17 January the Government launched an international appeal for assistance to meet the immediate needs of the population in the affected regions. A locally-organized assessment of the food situation is planned for 11-13 February 2002.
Overall, the food situation is satisfactory following above average 2001 cereal crop and substantial imports late last year. The markets are well supplied and prices of millet and sorghum have decreased with the arrival of fresh produce on the markets.
Cereal import requirements in 2001/02 (November/October) are forecast at 840 000 tonnes, slightly less than actual imports in the previous year.
Cereal production in 2001 is estimated to be higher than the previous year�s harvest, reflecting increased plantings by returning refugees and farmers previously displaced, as well as improved conditions for the distribution of agricultural inputs.
The security situation is reported to be relatively calm. On 18 January the President declared the end of the disarmament process and announced the lifting of the curfew which had been in force for four years.
In an effort to continue helping the country, a UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal was launched on 26 November 2001 by the UN Secretary General. The agricultural component of the Appeal includes five projects proposed by FAO with the aim of facilitating the transition from dependence on food aid to self-reliance in food production and enhanced food security.
Land preparation for the sowing of the first maize crop is about to start in the south. Notwithstanding irregular rains during the entire growing season, the aggregate output of cereals in 2001 is estimated at about 0.7 million tonnes, which is average. The overall food supply situation is satisfactory.
Planting of the first maize crop for harvest from July will begin in March in the south. Reflecting overall favourable growing conditions, 2001 cereal production is estimated to be similar to the previous year�s average crop.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. Imports of cereals in 2001 are estimated at 300 000 tonnes, virtually same as in the previous year.
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (5 February)
The main 2002 maize crop to be harvested from July will be sown in March. Reflecting normal to above normal rains and favourable growing conditions, cereal production in 2001 is estimated at the average level of about 149 000 tonnes, fractionally higher than the 2000 harvest.
The food supply situation is satisfactory.
CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF* (5 February)
The eruption of the Nyiragongo volcano on 17 January resulted in loss of life, 87 500 people made homeless in the eastern city of Goma, severe damage to infrastructure and the displacement of some 300 000 people - out of a population of 500 000 in Goma - to neighbouring Rwanda. The majority have returned to Goma and an estimated 340 000 people need emergency food assistance. The United Nations has appealed for assistance for the victims of the catastrophe and for reconstruction of the city of Goma, 40 percent of which is estimated to have been seriously damaged by lava flows. This includes an FAO appeal for US$1.35 million to provide agricultural tools and seeds of fast-growing vegetables to 6 000 affected farmers.
Elsewhere in the country, economic and agricultural activities continue to be disrupted by the persistent civil conflict. Up to 16 million people or one-third of the country�s population are estimated to be seriously food insecure. In particular, the food and nutritional situation of over 2 million internally displaced is alarming. Delivery of humanitarian assistance to this population is hampered by insecurity, mainly in eastern parts.
The overall food supply situation has improved. Most of the population displaced by the civil war have returned home and following an improvement of the security situation all areas are now accessible to humanitarian agencies. More than 27 500 refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic are reported to be in Betou. The WFP Emergency operation initially scheduled to end on 31 March has been extended until 31 May 2002.
EQUATORIAL GUINEA (5 February)
The staple crops are sweet potatoes, cassava and plantains. The country imports on average 5 000 tonnes of rice and 5 000 tonnes of wheat.
The main foodcrops are cassava and plantains but some maize is also produced (around 31 000 tonnes). The country imports commercially the bulk of its cereal requirement, estimated at around 87 000 tonnes in 2001.
The outcome of the recently harvested 2002 first season crops was good. Production of cereals and beans was estimated at almost the same as in the previous year, at 86 000 tonnes and 69 000 tonnes respectively. Roots and tubers increased by 9 percent to 527 000 tonnes and bananas and plantains by 3 percent to 477 000 tonnes. For the non-cereal crops, the increase reflects larger plantings in response to sufficient availability of planting material, stable security situation in most of the country, and adequate rains. However, plantings and yields of cereals and beans were constrained by shortages of seeds (despite large distributions of agricultural inputs by humanitarian organizations), early cessation of rains in some areas and excessive precipitation in parts. By December 2001, prices of food staples in the main provincial markets had declined significantly compared to their levels of a year ago.
However, despite the overall satisfactory harvest, production was constrained by insecurity in eastern provinces and parts of Bujumbura rural Province. The food situation of some 432 000 internally displaced people is of serious concern and food assistance continues to be required.
Harvesting of the 2001 cereal and pulse crops is complete. Expectations of a good cereal crop in 2001 were dampened by below-normal rains at flowering and seed setting stages. The Ministry of Agriculture is yet to release final production data for the 2001 harvest but recent estimates indicate a cereal output of between 150 000 to 200 000 tonnes. Even at this level, production is well above the previous year�s poor harvest. During 2001, WFP has distributed about 150 000 tonnes of food commodities to 1 million beneficiaries and expects to distribute about 130 000 tonnes to 800 000 people in 2002.
The overall food supply situation remains tight reflecting the displacement of farmers by the recent war with Ethiopia and lingering effects of drought. A UN Consolidated Inter-Agency Appeal for 2002 for US $120 million was launched in November 2001 and includes assistance for medium and long- term programmes, particularly those targeting the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Although the number of IDPs in camps is gradually declining (currently about 60 000), food assistance is also required for refugees returning from Sudan, demobilized soldiers, resettled IDPs in the TSZ and drought impacted people in the Sahel regions of the country.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country in late 2001 estimated cereal and pulse production from the 2001 main �Meher� season at 12.33 million tonnes, 4 percent below the 2000 post-harvest estimate but about 9 percent above the average of the previous five years. The increase was mainly due to favourable rains and a low incidence of pests and diseases. The bumper harvest has resulted in sharply falling grain prices in most markets, negatively impacting on farmers� income. The price fall could negatively affect next year�s production. On the other hand, the low prices offer an opportunity for a significant build- up of stocks at all levels. Export possibilities to neighbouring countries will be restricted because of good harvests in neighbouring Kenya and Sudan.
The overall good harvest masks the existence of food deficient communities in most parts of the country due to localised drought, population displacement and limited purchasing power. Emergency food requirements in 2002 are projected at about 560 000 tonnes targeting some 5.2 million people. The Mission strongly recommended local purchases to the extent possible for donors wishing to give food aid to the country. (For more details, the Mission Report can be found at the address http://www.fao.org/giews/english/alertes/2002/SRETH202.htm)
Prospects for the 2001/02 secondary "short rains" cereal crop, which accounts for some 15 percent of annual production, are favourable. This crop provides the main source of food in parts of Central and Eastern provinces.
The 2001 main "long rains" cereal crop was significantly higher than in 2000, mainly reflecting abundant and well distributed rains in the main producing area of the Rift Valley Province. Maize production has been estimated at 2.31 million tonnes for the season, an increase of about 20 percent over the previous year. Assuming an average "short rains" crop, the aggregate 2001/02 maize production is projected at 2.7 million tonnes. Reflecting the good "long rains" maize crop and carryover stocks, prices have declined sharply in recent months, prompting the Government to appeal to donors to increase local purchases.
Despite an overall improvement in food supply, serious food supply difficulties persist in pastoral areas, particularly in Turkana, Mandera and parts of Marsabit Districts. In November/December 2001 WFP distributed about 27 000 tonnes of food to about 1.5 million people in 13 drought affected pastoral and agro-pastoral districts.
Harvesting of the 2002 first season foodcrops is complete. Abundant rains during the season, which resulted in localized floods and landslides, generally benefited developing crops. The results of a locally organized joint MINAGRI/FAO/FEWS NET/WFP crop assessment are not yet available, but a good output of rootcrops and banana/plantains is anticipated. By contrast, production of cereals and beans is likely to have been adversely affected by the excessive precipitation, particularly in lowlands.
The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. Prices of the main food staples, which were at their lowest levels since 1994, have continued to decline with the arrival of the new harvest into the markets. This has improved access to food for most vulnerable groups.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 secondary �Deyr� season cereal crop, which normally accounts for 25 to 30 percent of annual cereal production, is well advanced. Despite earlier uncertainty, the outlook has generally improved with good rains in major growing areas. Latest forecasts indicate a cereal crop of some 160 000 tonnes, comprising 90 000 tonnes of sorghum and 70 000 tonnes of maize, which is about 68 percent above the previous year�s harvest.
However, the food security situation in Gedo, East Sanag, Sool and parts of Bari regions gives cause for concern. Overall, more than 500 000 people are estimated to be facing severe food difficulties in Somalia, mainly due to poor 2001 main �Gu� season crops. Slow recovery from successive seasons of drought and long-term effects of insecurity coupled with reduced foreign exchange earnings due to the continuing ban on livestock imports from eastern Africa by countries along the Arabian Peninsula on account of Rift Valley Fever have seriously undermined household food security.
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the country in October-December 2001 forecast the 2001/02 total cereal production at about 4.81 million tonnes, comprising 3.77 million tonnes of sorghum, about 579 000 tonnes of millet, 315 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2002) and about 146 000 tonnes of other cereals. At this level, cereal production is about 38 percent above last year�s crop and about 13 percent above the average of the last five years. Sorghum market prices have fallen below production costs in main producing areas, and this may depress planted area next year.
Nevertheless, several zones in southern Sudan will experience food shortages mainly due to population displacement and insecurity, while parts of northern Sudan have suffered crop failures due to erratic rainfall. Therefore, targeted emergency food assistance will be required in these areas. It is particularly important to facilitate the timely purchase and transfer of grains from surplus to deficit areas to support both producers and consumers.
For various interventions in the drought affected States of Kordofan, Darfur and the Red Sea, an estimated 78 000 tonnes of cereals are required. In southern Sudan, where insecurity is a major cause of food aid needs, the overall needs are estimated at 52 000 tonnes. In addition, food aid needs in the Nuba Mountains (both northern and southern sectors) amount to about 25 000 tonnes. In total, 155 000 tonnes of food aid will be required in 2002 to assist about 2 million IDPs, drought affected and vulnerable people.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 short �Vuli� season cereal crops in the bi-modal rainfall areas is well advanced. The overall outlook is mixed. A satisfactory crop is anticipated around the Lake Victoria Basin and western Tanzania, while a poor crop is expected in northern and eastern regions mainly due to dry weather. The aggregate 2001/02 cereal production is forecast at 4 million tonnes, about 14 percent above last year�s poor harvest but almost similar to the average for the previous five years.
Despite an overall stable food supply situation, recent reports indicate that nearly 120 000 people in 10 districts would need food assistance. Sharp increase in food prices have been noted in parts due to increased demand for cereals in neighbouring Zambia, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which have food deficits due to adverse weather or insecurity.
Harvesting of the 2001 second season crop is almost complete and maize production is expected to decline by about 25 percent of normal levels due to reduced acreage following the bumper crop in the first season. Aggregate cereal production in 2001 is estimated at 9 percent and 3 percent above the 2000 and the previous five years average respectively.
However, despite an overall satisfactory food supply situation, some 700 000 refugees, displaced persons and victims of drought earlier remain dependent on food assistance.
Widespread good rains in January, after delayed and erratic precipitation since the beginning of the season in October, improved growing conditions for crops, particularly for cereals. Prospects so far for the harvest from April are generally favourable. However, the deteriorating security situation in recent months is likely to have adversely affected plantings, while shortages of agricultural inputs and poor rainfall in central and southern provinces may reduce yield potential.
The food supply situation remains extremely precarious due to the intensified civil conflict, particularly in the central provinces of Bie, Huambo and Moxico. This is causing fresh massive population displacements, with IDPs seeking safety in provincial capital cities. The number of IDPs, previously estimated at 2.7 million, has been increasing steadily across the country in recent months. Insecurity is also hampering provision of humanitarian assistance. By late January, it was estimated that about 305 000 vulnerable people in central Angola were cut off by intense military action. Food aid requirements for marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) amount to 176 000 tonnes of cereals, most of which had been pledged by the end of January 2002.
Prospects for this year's cereal crops, mainly sorghum, are uncertain. The rainy season started well in November; however, since the third dekad of December, precipitation in growing areas has been below normal, stressing the developing crops. Rains in the coming weeks will be crucial for the outcome of the cropping season.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory reflecting the country�s commercial import capacity to cover its food deficit.
The outlook for the 2002 cereal crops, to be harvested from next April, is favourable. Normal to above-normal precipitation since the beginning of the season has encouraged farmers to plant more area and has benefited developing crops.
The food supply situation is tight as a result of the reduced cereal harvest last year, particularly for households in districts worst affected by several natural disasters. Latest official production estimates of cereals in year 2001 have been revised upwards to 159 00 tonnes. At this level, production is slightly higher than in the previous year but well below average. The cereal import requirement is estimated at 263 000 tonnes. Commercial imports have been slow and are not expected to fully cover the requirements, resulting in reduced consumption of the most vulnerable groups of population.
A dry spell during the month of January, which followed erratic rains in November and December, particularly in northern and central areas, has worsened prospects for the 2002 main paddy crop. Production may also be adversely affected by a possible decline in the area planted in response to a sharp fall in prices due to a 2001 bumper crop and large carry-over stocks.
Tropical storm Cyprien hit the south-western region in early January causing localized floods and affecting about 1 900 households. The Government has provided emergency assistance to the affected population. The overall food supply situation remains stable following last year�s good harvest and the decrease in food prices.
Food supply is very tight following a decline of one-quarter in the 2001 maize crop which was affected by excessive rains and floods. The strategic grain reserve which, despite bumper harvests in the previous two years, was at a low level at the beginning of the marketing year in April, has now been depleted. Prices of maize, the food staple, have increased by an average of 400 percent from their levels of a year ago. This has sharply reduced access to food for large sections of the vulnerable population. The Government has made arrangements to import 150 000 tonnes of maize but by late January only 60 000 tonnes had entered the country due to transport problems in the sub-region. However, substantial flows of largely unrecorded cross-border imports from Mozambique and Tanzania are reported. At the household level, food shortages have emerged in southern parts of the country, where floods affected nearly 650 000 people last year and severe crop losses were experienced. The Government has appealed for international food aid.
Prospects for the 2002 cereal crops, to be harvested from mid-April are generally favourable reflecting abundant rains since the beginning of the season and the maize crop is reported in good conditions in most parts of the country. However, excessive rains in December, the second dekad of January and early February caused many rivers to burst their banks resulting in localized floods in 11 of the 27 districts of the country. Worst affected districts are Karonga, Salima, Blantyre and Chikwawa. Overall 20 000 households are reported to have suffered property and crops losses. While the extent of the damage to crops is not yet known, the excessive rains are likely to have resulted in yield reductions in these areas.
Dry weather throughout the country during January, except in the extreme north, stressed the 2002 cereal crops, to be harvested from May.
Prices of maize, which increased immediately after the harvest in mid-May, have continued to rise. Higher increases have been reported in the northern provinces; in Nampula the average price of maize by mid-December had risen more than 300 percent from its level at the beginning of the marketing year. At the current levels, prices are well above those of last year. The increase in prices mainly reflects strong demand from neighbouring Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe where production decreased significantly in 2001. In general, access to food by the poor and vulnerable groups has become restricted by the prevailing high prices of maize, the main staple in the country.
In the southern provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane, where the 2001 harvest was reduced for the second consecutive year, the food situation is difficult. Emergency food aid is being distributed to 172 000 vulnerable people in these provinces until the next harvest from April.
Below-average rains since the third dekad of December in northern cereal growing areas adversely affected the recently planted 2002 maize and sorghum crops. Harvest prospects are uncertain.
The national food supply situation is tight following the reduced harvest last year. Planned commercial imports fall short of requirements, which is likely to leave an uncovered deficit in marketing year 2001/02 (May/April). Vulnerable groups in urban and rural areas are experiencing food difficulties.
Prospects for the 2002 maize crop, to be harvested from May, are favourable. This reflects an increase in the area planted to maize, in response to favourable prices and abundant rains at planting time. The area planted to white maize and yellow maize increased by 9 percent and 3 percent respectively. Precipitation in December and January has been about normal. Maize production is expected to recover from the reduced level of 2001.
The overall food supply situation continues to be satisfactory. The wheat crop harvested in November 2001 was above average. Latest estimates indicate an output close to 2.5 million tonnes, an increase of 6 percent on the previous year�s level. This was due to larger plantings and adequate water supplies.
Abundant and widespread rains in the third dekad of January benefited developing maize and sorghum crops stressed by erratic precipitation in December and first two dekads of January. The outlook for the 2002 maize and sorghum crops is favourable so far but rains may have arrived too late to prevent yield reductions in parts.
The food supply situation is tight as a result of two consecutive poor harvests. Cereal import requirements in marketing year 2001/02 (April/March) are estimated at 115 000 tonnes, to be covered mostly on a commercial basis. However, commercial imports so far amount to only 51 000 tonnes. The Government has started distribution of limited amounts of emergency food aid to households affected by drought in 2001.
The food supply situation is tight following a sharply reduced 2001 cereal crop. Excessive rains and floods in parts and dry weather in the south adversely affected production of maize, the country�s main staple. Output of wheat also declined due to reduced plantings. Maize prices have risen substantially since early June, when they should normally be declining. Severe food shortages are reported in several rural locations and in urban areas. The Government has made arrangements to import 150 000 tonnes of maize to be sold at subsidized prices, but less than a quarter had arrived in the country by late January due to transport constraints in the sub-region. By mid-February it has imposed prices controls on maize meal. The Government has also appealed for international food assistance and has distributed 5 000 tonnes of maize from its Food Reserve. WFP is assisting almost 1.3 million worst affected people in targeted districts and plans to distribute 42 000 tonnes of maize until the next harvest.
The outlook for the 2002 maize crop is uncertain. A prolonged dry spell in December and January in Southern, Central, Eastern and parts of Lusaka provinces, which stressed developing crops in parts, was followed by abundant rains in the second dekad of January, but the dry weather resumed in the third dekad. More rains are needed in these areas in the coming weeks. By contrast, normal rains have been received in the northern parts of the country.
The food supply situation is extremely tight following a 28 percent decline in the 2001 maize production and financial constraints on imports. The decrease in production mainly reflected a 54 percent reduction in the area planted on the large-scale commercial farms, due to disruption by land acquisitions activities. Serious food difficulties have been reported for households in southern, eastern and extreme northern parts, where the harvest was reduced by dry weather or excessive rains. The Government has appealed for international food assistance. WFP has appealed for 94 000 tonnes of cereals to assist 558 000 vulnerable people mostly in the rural areas but also in urban centres, for a period of 12 months. Distribution of 5 200 tonnes of maize started in late November, with WFP using its own resources as pledges by donors had not yet been made. Prices of food staples and fuel, which increased sharply at the beginning of the 2001/02 marketing year last April, continue to rise, reflecting decreasing stocks and general price inflation. The Government has instituted price controls on basic foods, including bread, maize meal, wheat flour, meat, sugar and cooking oil, but this has resulted in shortages of the commodities on the open markets. It has also announced its intention to import a minimum of 150 000 tonnes of maize from South Africa but by late January very reduced quantities had arrived in the country.
The wheat crop, harvested in November 2001, is estimated at 300 000 tonnes, 20 percent higher than the 2000 poor harvest, mainly reflecting an increase in the area planted.
Prospects for the 2002 maize crop are uncertain. Abundant rains in November and December were followed by a prolonged dry spell in January. More rains are needed in the coming weeks. Shortages of agricultural inputs, mainly fertilizers, are also likely to adversely affect yields this year.
Despite recent beneficial rain and snowfall, production of wheat and barley in 2002 will be seriously jeopardized by shortage of agricultural inputs and disruptions in farming activities caused by the recent military operations which coincided with the planting season.
The food situation remains grave notwithstanding the improved delivery of food assistance. During the past three years, the country has suffered a devastating drought which compounded the impact of years of conflict and brought a large section of the population to the brink of starvation. The 2001 cereal output has been estimated at about 2 million tonnes, about one-half of the production in 1998. As a result, cereal import requirements in the current marketing year (July/June 2001/02) were forecast at a near record volume of some 2.2 million tonnes. Distribution of emergency food is being seriously hampered by heavy snowfall.
Agricultural rehabilitation/reconstruction measures in Afghanistan will need to urgently address, inter alia, the restoration of irrigation systems, input supply to farmers, farm power and livestock production. FAO has appealed for some US$21 million to assist the country in these critical areas.
Grain harvest in 2001 nearly doubled at 417 000 tonnes compared to the drought reduced poor harvest in 2000. Grain production in 2001, some 46 percent higher than the average of the past five years, included 340 000 tonnes of wheat compared with 151 000 tonnes in 2000, and 74 000 tonnes of coarse grains compared with 71 000 tonnes in 2000. Winter cereals for harvest in 2002 have been seeded on 317 000 hectares, which is similar to the area under winter cereals in 2001.
Potato production, a major staple food crop, increased by 33 percent in 2001 compared to the drought reduced crop of 2000 at 300 000 tonnes. Cereal import requirement for the marketing year 2001/02 is estimated at about 303 000 tonnes including an estimated food aid requirement of 71 000 tonnes.
Grain production in 2001 was estimated at more than 2 million tonnes, which is higher than the improved harvest of the preceding year by about 550 000 tonnes. Grain harvest in 2001 included 1.5 million tonnes of wheat, 252 000 tonnes of barley and 150 000 tonnes of maize. Winter cereals are the most important crops in Azerbaijan and a similar harvest is expected this year as a matching area has been planted to cereals this winter.
Cereal import requirements for 2001/02 marketing year are estimated at 800 000 tonnes, mostly wheat, which should be commercially procured. However the most vulnerable and internally displaced population will continue to depend on targeted food assistance.
Normal to slightly above-normal rainfall was registered across the country in the last months of 2001. The main crops presently in the ground are wheat and irrigated �boro� rice crop, the latter accounting for almost 45 percent of total annual rice production.
The overall food situation is satisfactory with adequate government food grain reserves. At the end of November 2001 there was a total of 1.2 million tonnes of grain in the Government�s Public Food Distribution System, including 558 000 tonnes of rice and over 685 000 tonnes of wheat. However, despite the high rice stocks, the Government has decided to ease credit facilities to rice importers to prevent domestic prices from rising in view of uncertain prospects for the �boro� crop.
Harvesting of the country�s main wet rice crop, which accounts for nearly 80 percent of rice production, has been completed. Notwithstanding the extremely dry month of July, which registered the lowest precipitation in 30 years, and the torrential rains and flooding which followed during most of August, aggregate paddy output in 2001 was 3.6 million tonnes (2.2 in milled rice equivalent), which was average. Rice accounts for about 84 percent of annual food crop production. The satisfactory output should help stabilize the overall food supply situation which was destabilized by flooding in August, when thousands of people were forced to leave their homes and needed food assistance.
Growing conditions have improved for the 2001/02 winter wheat crop, particularly in the southern areas which were seriously affected by dry weather at planting in October. In the northern growing areas, more precipitation is still needed, despite beneficial rains and snowfall in November and December. The total area planted has decreased from 26.7 million hectares in 2000/01 to a present 24.6 million hectares and wheat output is provisionally forecast at 94.2 million tonnes compared to 99.6 million tonnes in the previous year.
Sowing of the 2001/02 wheat and barley crops for harvest from May has been completed under generally favourable weather. Production of barley in 2001 has been revised to 115 000 tonnes, an increase of 55 percent compared to the average of the previous five years. Imports of cereals in 2001/02 (May/April), mainly wheat and barley are forecast at the previous years� level of some 600 000 tonnes.
Planting of the main rice and maize crops was completed in November and weather conditions have favoured the development of the crops. Harvest is due from April and early forecasts point to average outputs.
Assistance from the international community continues to be provided for the resettlement of East Timorese returnees.
Grain harvest at 718 000 tonnes nearly doubled in 2001 compared with the drought reduced harvest of the preceding year (391 000 tonnes). Production included 305 000 tonnes of wheat, 350 000 tonnes of maize and 50 000 tonnes of barley. Drought in the western parts of the country severely compromised the spring crop and many drought-affected farmers are in need of relief assistance. Winter sewing campaign is complete and similar areas to the preceding year have been seeded. Winter cereal harvest, which is the main crop, will depend on late winter and early spring precipitation.
Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year (mostly wheat) is estimated at 460 000 tonnes, including food aid of 81 000 tonnes, which have been virtually entirely pledged. The Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation activities are planned to be extended until 30 March 2003.
Planting of the 2001/02 wheat crop was completed in November and recent timely rains have ensured favourable production prospects. Assuming weather conditions stay within normal range, a good harvest should be expected. Harvest is due to start from April and output is tentatively forecast to increase from last year�s 68.5 million tonnes to some 70 million tonnes.
Government wheat stocks were reported at 35.8 million tonnes at the beginning of November. High rice stocks are also reported and for both crops efforts are being made to encourage exports. However, much will depend upon the supply and demand situation on the world commodity markets.
Heavy monsoon rains at the end of January resulted in landslides and flooding which caused enormous damage to housing and infrastructure, and also destroyed hundreds of hectares of cropland, particularly in the islands of Java and Sumatra. Thousands of people fled their homes and an increasing number of casualties is reported. A high alert has been issued by the Government for possible further downpours. Emergency relief is being provided to the affected population. Planting of the 2001/02 main rice crop was about to be completed when the heavy rains began, and a provisonal assessment of damage would indicate that some 495 000 tonnes of paddy have been lost. Losses of a lesser extent have been incurred to maize and soya crops.
IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (1 February)
The continuing drought conditions for the last three years have severely affected all crops and livestock. Water shortage in urban and particularly in rural areas have forced migration into other areas. Thousands of nomadic herders have lost their only source of livelihood. Aggregate cereal output in 2001 is presently estimated at a 11.6 million tonnes, well below the output of 19 million tonnes in 1998 and an average of 15.5 millions for the previous 5 years. Particularly affected was the wheat crop, which was 2.2 million tonnes below the average, while coarse grains production was 2.3 million tonnes compared to an average 3.3 million tonnes.
Despite improved precipitation in the region, prospects for the 2002 winter grain crops in Iraq are uncertain. Cereal production will be affected by serious shortages of fertilizers, spare parts for agricultural machinery and other agricultural inputs. Production of cereals (mainly wheat and barley) in 2001 is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, 12 percent below average. Grain imported under the SCR 986 oil-for-food deal has led to significant improvements in the overall food supply situation, but malnutrition remains a serious problem.
Early prospects for the 2002 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from April are favourable so far, reflecting improved precipitation. Domestic production of wheat in normal years covers less than one-fifth of total requirement, the rest being imported commercially. Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 2001 is estimated at 180 000 tonnes, more than double the below-average crop harvested in the previous year and above average. Imports of cereals in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast to increase by about 10 percent to 3.1 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2001 rice crop was completed in November and output is estimated at 11.3 million tonnes compared to the past 5-year average of 12 million tonnes.
The sowing of the 2002 winter grains was completed in December under generally improved weather conditions. Heavy snow cover in early January provided relief from the severe drought conditions earlier.
Aggregate production of wheat and barley in 2001 is estimated at 20 000 tonnes, about 52 percent below the reduced crop of the previous year. Domestic cereal production normally meets only a small proportion of the country�s requirements, the rest being imported. Imports of wheat in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, slightly higher than last year. Coarse grain imports are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, about the same as in 2000/01.
Grain harvest in 2001 amounted to 16.5 million tonnes compared with 11.6 million tonnes in 2000. Grain production includes 13.5 million tonnes of wheat, 2 million tonnes of barley and 260 000 tonnes of maize. On average, grain yields in 2001 were higher by 325 kg per hectare and harvested area was higher by 784 000 hectares compared with 2000. Favourable weather conditions and virtually disease-free crops contributed to higher output this year. Heavy rains during October 2001 might have reduced the quality of some of the crops.
Cereal export during 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 4.6 million tonnes, mostly wheat, compared to 4 million tonnes last year.
KOREA, DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF* (1 February)
The country experienced a strong recovery in 2001 from the poor harvest of the previous year. This was due to favourable weather conditions and the assistance received from the international community in terms of various types of farm inputs. Aggregate cereal output for the year has been estimated at 3.7 million tonnes, some 700 000 tonnes above the previous year�s production and about 5 percent above the average of the past 5 years. At present, the important barley crop is in the ground for harvesting from April. Early prospects are uncertain due to inadequate snowfall.
Despite the improved overall food supply situation, domestic food output is not enough to meet the country�s food requirements. Food assistance estimated at 610 000 tonnes is required in 2002 to meet minimum food needs.
KOREA, REPUBLIC OF (1 February)
Aggregate cereal production, mainly rice, in 2001 was a record 7.4 million tonnes, from an area of some 1.1 million hectares. This is the first increase in production since 1997, when the number of productive farms and rice acreage started to decline to make more land available for infrastructure and urban development.
Cereal harvest in 2001 totalled about 1.5 million tonnes, some 100 000 tonnes higher than the previous year. Output in 2001 included 1.2 million tonnes of wheat, 220 000 tonnes of maize and 130 000 tonnes of barley. Regional drought and water shortages did not affect Kyrgyzstan as much as other countries due to upstream benefits. This year�s cereal harvest is seen to be at least as high as in 2001, but much will depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the coming months. Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year is estimated at 159 000 tonnes including an estimated food aid requirement of 50 000 tonnes.
Planting of the 2001/02 second season irrigated rice crop is underway and expected to be completed by the end of February. The crop accounts for some 15 percent of the annual rice production.
Despite a slightly above-average cereal crop, principally rice, in 2001, the food supply situation remains tight for some of the flood affected victims in the previous year, who lost entirely their crops and property.
The sowing of the wheat and barley crops, due for harvest from June, was completed under generally improved weather conditions. Production of cereals in 2001 is estimated at 93 000 tonnes which is about average.
Imports of cereals, mainly wheat, in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at some 0.75 million tonnes, similar to the previous year.
Harvesting of the main 2001/02 rice crop is underway and should be completed by April. The main crop accounts for about 60 percent of around 2 million tonnes of paddy that the country produces per year. The rest of the production comes from the off-season crop planted in March/April. Total production, however, does not fully cover domestic requirements and imports of 600 000 to 700 000 tonnes of rice are estimated for in 2002 (July/June). Imports of wheat are estimated at 1.3 million tonnes while those of maize are forecast at 2.5 million tonnes in 2001/02 marketing year (July/June). Efforts are being made by the Government to reduce dependency on imports.
Harvest of the 2001 wheat crop, the main food staple, was completed in November and output was about average at 190 000 tonnes. This represents only a slight recovery from the previous year�s 186 000 tonnes. The low output is attributed to recurrent harsh winters, structural changes in the economy and the absence of an integrated farming system.
In 2000-2001 the country experienced the worst winter in decades which seriously affected the food security of a large segment of the nomadic population. International food assistance helped significantly and is expected to continue through 2002. The impact of another severe cold winter this year could aggravate the fragile situation faced by thousands of herder families. A severe winter storm was experienced in December 2001 which killed over 66 000 head of livestock, while 24 000 animals disappeared. The situation is likely to deteriorate as very cold and windy conditions are forecast in the coming weeks. (In 2001 some 3.5 million animals froze to death.)
Harvesting of the 2001 main monsoon rice crop and planting of the dry season irrigated crop have been completed. Harvest prospects for the dry season crop, to be harvested from April, are good. Aggregate output from both crops is provisionally estimated at 20.6 million tonnes (13.1 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent). Wheat and maize outputs collected in 2001 are estimated at an average 85 000 tonnes and 301 000 tonnes respectively.
Despite heavy rains during the monsoon season, resulting in landslides and flooding, output from the 2001 paddy crop was 4.2 million tonnes (2.8 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent), which was average. The winter wheat crop is in the ground for harvesting from April.
Harvesting of the winter wheat (rabi) crop, presently in the ground, is due to start from late March and continue through July. The crop is planted at the end of October through November and is mostly irrigated. Despite below-normal rainfall during sowing and a current dry spell, sufficient soil moisture was accumulated in early summer and production prospects are favourable. Wheat output in 2002 is provisionally forecast at an above-average level of 20 million tonnes, some 1 million tonnes above production in 2001. Due to present large carry-over stocks, including maintenance of strategic wheat reserves, the government intends to increase wheat exports in marketing year 2002/03.
Coarse grain output in 2001 was an average 2.1 million tonnes. Production of paddy (planted May through July) improved from earlier estimates, due to monsoon rains which helped alleviate irrigation water shortages, but nevertheless remained below average at 5.7 million tonnes (3.8 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent).
Torrential rains in early January resulted in flashfloods in the southern areas, causing serious damage to housing and infrastructure, as well as to farm land. More than 42 000 people were directly affected.
The main crops in the ground are the dry season rice (planted in October-December) and maize. Harvesting is due to start from April and last through May. Early official forecasts indicate that despite possible damage to crops by heavy rains, rice production should increase considerably, mainly as a result of the government�s recent programme to improve conditions in the agricultural sector, including distribution of good certified seeds and expansion of irrigated areas. Paddy production in 2001 was as record 12.7 million tonnes (8.3 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent).
Growing conditions for the 2002 wheat and barley crops due for harvest from April have improved due to recent precipitation. Production of wheat in 2001 is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, similar to the previous year, which together with stocks, will be sufficient to cover the country�s requirements. Imports of coarse grains (mainly barley and maize) in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast to remain unchanged at 6.2 million tonnes.
In 2001 the country was affected by the worst drought in 30 years which affected 1.6 million people. Food aid from the international community is being provided to the affected population.
The Maha rice crop, the main crop, is presently in the ground for harvesting from March. Planting of the Maha crop coincides with the arrival of the northeast monsoon in December, the country�s main rainy season which started on time in 2001.
Reflecting improved weather conditions and adequate availability of agricultural inputs, the prospects for wheat and barley crops to be harvested from May are favourable. Production of wheat in 2001 is estimated to have increased by about 1.8 million tonnes to the above-average level of 4.5 million tonnes. Barley output rose significantly to 1.3 million tonnes nearly double the average for the previous five years.
Imports of wheat and rice in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at a total of 290 000 tonnes, nearly the same as last year while those of maize are forecast at 700 000 tonnes, about 80 percent above the previous year.
Grain production in 2001 was estimated at 300 000 tonnes, which was even lower than the drought reduced harvest in 2000 by about 52 000 tonnes. Wheat output, the main staple crop, was estimated at 233 000 tonnes in 2001 compared with 283 000 tonnes in 2000 and 366 000 tonnes in 1999. Wheat requirement in the country is about 1 million tonnes, nearly 800 000 tonnes of which is for food use. This year similar areas to last year have been seeded to winter cereals but harvest levels will strongly depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the two main rivers, the Amu and Syr rivers, during late winter and Spring. Tajikistan has been in the grip of severe drought three years in succession.
Cereal import requirement (mainly wheat) for 2001/02 marketing year (July/June) is estimated at 788 000 tonnes, 400 000 tonnes of which is to be commercially procured and remainder to be provided as food aid.
From July 2001 to January 2002, WFP distributed 459 000 tonnes of mixed food commodities. An additional 59 000 tonnes are expected to arrive during February-May 2002.
Harvesting of the main wet season rice crop, planted from June through September, is about to be completed while planting of the second season crop is underway. A bumper paddy crop of some 25.2 million tonnes (16.7 million tonnes in milled rice equivalent) is provisionally forecast. Rice exports in 2002 are expected to be about 7.5 million tonnes, very similar to the volume exported in 2001.
Early prospects for the 2002 wheat and barley have improved with recent heavy rain and snowfall. Production of wheat in 2001, estimated at 16 million tonnes, was about 12 percent lower than in 2000 due to dry and warm weather during last winter and spring months and poor availability of high quality seeds. Output of coarse grains (mostly barley and maize) decreased by about 1.8 million tonnes to 9.2 million tonnes. Paddy production is forecast at 300 000 tonnes similar to the previous year. Wheat imports in 2001/02 (July/June) are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes compared with 1 million tonnes estimated for the previous year. Maize imports are also forecast to increase by 150 000 tonnes to 950 000 tonnes. Exports of wheat and barley in the year ending June 2002 are expected to decline sharply.
Cereal harvest in 2001 totalled about 1.7 million tonnes, compared to 1.5 million tonnes in 2000, including 1.6 million tonnes of wheat, 50 000 tonnes of barley, 20 000 tonnes of maize and 20 000 tonnes of rice. Despite the regional drought and water shortages, cereal production levels increased due to some increase in area under wheat. The government plans to further increase area sown to wheat and other cereals as well as cotton. The areas that suffer the most from water shortages are Mary province (bordering the Islamic Republic of Iran and Afghanistan) and Dashagouz (bordering Karaklpakstan region of Uzbekistan), which should be monitored during the course of the winter cropping season. Cereal import requirement for 2001/02 marketing year was estimated at about 61 000 tonnes, which compares with only 26 000 tonnes the previous year�s imports. Area seeded to winter cereals this year is similar to 2001, harvest will depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the Amu an Murghab rivers.
Uzbekistan harvested some 3.7 million tonnes of grains in 2001, which is more than 200 000 below the drought reduced harvest of 2000. Drought and water shortages have compromised crop production for the past two years, in particular the water levels in Amu and Syr rivers were reportedly flowing at 40 percent of the normal levels at crucial cropping seasons. This year�s harvest will again depend on the level of precipitation and water availability in the two main rivers. The worst affected areas for the past two years have been Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where some 600 000 people required emergency food aid last year, water availability in the Amu river will be critical for this year�s crop production as well.
Cereal import requirements in 2001/02 are estimated at about 1 million tonnes, some 400 000 tonnes higher than the preceding year�s imports. Food aid requirement is estimated at about 121 000 tonnes, including 60 000 tonnes of wheat, 51 000 tonnes of rice and 10 000 tonnes of maize.
The country was seriously affected by heavy flooding, particularly in the Mekong Delta, in late October, and by tropical storms in December. Enormous damage to housing and infrastructure was reported and international relief assistance was provided at the request of the government. Production of paddy in 2001 declined from the 32.5 million tonnes in the previous year to some 31.9 million tonnes (21.3 millions in rice milled equivalent), which was still above average.
Rice exports in 2001 are estimated at 3.6 million tonnes, an increase of some 73 000 tonnes over 2000, but lower from what the government intended.
Harvest of the winter/spring rice crop is due to start from the middle of February in some parts. The crop is the largest of the three rice crops produced each year, contributing about 36 percent of aggregate rice production. Crop conditions are good and a bumper crop is anticipated.
Land preparation for the sowing of the main sorghum and millet crops to be harvested towards the end of the year is about to start. The output from the 2001 sorghum crop is estimated at some 400 000 tonnes, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. Output from the wheat crop increased slightly to 146 000 tonnes. Maize production estimated at 50 000 tonnes was 2 000 tonnes more than in 2000. Imports of cereals in 2001 - mainly wheat - are forecast at 2.38 million tonnes, about 8 percent higher than previous year.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 second season cereal crops has been virtually completed under normal weather conditions. A below-average maize output has been collected, partly as a consequence of the dry spell which affected the first season crops. Production of paddy in 2001 is provisionally estimated at 289 000 tonnes compared to the previous year�s volume of 351 000 tonnes. This is largely the result of reduced plantings aggravated by adverse weather conditions.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are expected to be about 200 000 tonnes, while maize imports are anticipated to be about 560 000 tonnes, mostly yellow maize. Rice imports in marketing year 2002 (January/December) are forecast to be about 50 000 tonnes, closely similar to the volume imported in 2001.
The country is still recovering from the impact of Hurricane �Michelle� in November last year, which seriously affected the provinces of La Habana, Matanzas and the Isla de la Juventud, causing severe damage to food (plantains, roots and fruits) and citrus crops in particular. No significant damage was incurred to the cereal crops as the bulk of the first season crops had been harvested. Planting of the 2001/02 second season crops is well advanced for harvesting from April. Early forecasts indicate that maize output from both crops should be an above-average 170 000 tonnes while production of paddy in 2001 is provisionally estimated at 310 000 tonnes, close to the previous year�s volume.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) are expected to be close to 1 million tonnes, while the volume of rice to be imported in 2002 (January/December) is forecast to increase from 440 000 tonnes in 2001 to some 470 000 tonnes in response to the population�s strong demand for this important food staple.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (1 February)
Harvesting of the 2001/02 second season coarse grain crops is well advanced, and average maize and sorghum outputs are anticipated. Harvesting of the second season paddy crop has been virtually completed. A bumper paddy crop of about 620 000 tonnes in 2001 is provisionally estimated. Satisfactory outputs of beans, roots and plantains have also been collected.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) should increase from the previous year�s 305 000 tonnes to some 320 000 tonnes, while maize imports, mainly yellow, should be about 700 000 tonnes, reflecting the strong demand from the feed grain industry and trade with neighbouring countries. Rice imports in marketing year 2002 (January/December) are forecast to increase slightly from the 40 000 tonnes imported in 2001.
Harvesting of the 2001 second season crops has been completed. Despite satisfactory outturns, production was not enough to fully recover from the drought induced losses to the first season crops. Production of maize, the main cereal, from both crops is estimated at about 565 000 tonnes, far below the 622 000 tonnes and 652 000 tonnes collected in 1996 and 1999 respectively when crops were planted and developed under normal weather conditions. Production of sorghum in 2001 has been a low 149 000 tonnes. Food assistance from the international community is being provided to the most food insecure families who suffered from the drought in the eastern departments of Usulut�n, San Miguel, Moraz�n and La Uni�n, as well as to victims of the earthquakes in early 2001.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 second season cereal and bean crops has been completed. Good outturns have been collected and some of the losses incurred by drought to the first season crops have been thus partially offset; however, the food supply situation continues to be tight in several of the most drought affected areas, particularly in El Quiche and Jalapa where food assistance from the international community continues to be provided. An increasing number of malnourished children has been reported in the area. The conditions are also difficult for the large number of unemployed and low paid workers from coffee plantations as a result of the crisis affecting the industry caused by the fall in international coffee prices.
Harvesting of the 2001 irrigated paddy crop has been completed under normal weather conditions and output for the year is provisionally estimated at a below-average 103 000 tonnes. Average to above-average sorghum and maize outputs respectively have been harvested. The good results have contributed stabilize the food supply situation which had been jeopardized in 2000 and part of 2001 due to the serious drought which had affected the crops during 2000. Notwithstanding, food assistance continues to be distributed to most needed groups, mainly in the poorest areas in the North and North-East of the country. The recent deterioration of the security situation in the country following a failed coup d�etat in December and riots in January could adversely affect the food supply situation in the country.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 second season cereal and bean crops has been completed and outputs for the year are estimated at below-average levels, the result of the severe drought which affected the first season crops. About 500 000 tonnes of maize, the main cereal, have been collected in 2001 which compares to the past 5-year average of 550 000 tonnes and is far from the 658 000 tonnes harvested in 1996 when the crop developed under normal weather conditions. Sorghum output was also a low 60 000 tonnes. The food supply situation continues to be tight in the most drought affected departments of Choluteca, Francisco Moraz�n, Intibuca, Valle, El Paraiso, Comayagua and El Paraiso and an increase in malnutrition, particularly among children, is expected.
Growing conditions are normal for the 2001/02 irrigated wheat crop for harvesting from April, while harvesting of the important 2001 rain-fed summer maize crop has only been completed. Despite difficulties at planting due to moisture deficits, storm rains in the second half of the year benefited the developing maize crops and outputs collected are tentatively estimated at a slightly above average 18.4 million tonnes. A bumper sorghum crop of 6.6 million tonnes was harvested which compares to the past 5-year average of 6 million tonnes.
Maize imports in marketing year 2001/02 (October/September) are expected to be about 6 million tonnes, close to the volume imported in the previous year, while imports of sorghum are tentatively forecast to decline from almost 5 million tonnes to about 4.8 million tonnes.
Despite satisfactory outturns collected from the 2001/02 second season cereal crops, and anticipated good results from the third season crop (�apante�), aggregate cereal production for the year 2001 is below the average of the past five years. This is principally the result of the severe drought which affected the first season crops and the losses incurred to the second season crops by the heavy rains and flooding brought by hurricane �Michelle� in November. Maize output for the year is provisionally estimated at 272 000 tonnes, below the 295 000 tonnes gathered in the previous year and the past 5-year average of 311 000 tonnes. Production of sorghum was also below average, and the important paddy crop was a low 210 000 tonnes, which compares to a 5-year average of 252 000 tonnes. The food supply situation is expected to continue to be tight for the drought affected rural families, as well as for those employed in coffee plantations, critically hit by the fall of international coffee prices.
The 2001/02 maize and paddy crops were particularly affected by the lack of normal precipitation during the second half of the year, and outputs collected declined from those of the year before. For 2001, production of paddy, in particular, was some 22 percent below the previous year while that of maize decreased from 80 000 tonnes to 75 000 tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2001 wheat crop has only been completed and output collected is provisionally estimated at between 15.3 and 15.5 million tonnes which compares to earlier official forecasts of 16.5 to 17 million tonnes. The comparatively lower output is mainly due to weeks of excess rain and flooding in some of the key growing areas which have resulted in plant disease and considerably lower than normal yields. According to official sources, it has been one of the worst flooding in living memory. The shortage in production, coupled with the serious economic crisis which is afflicting the country and its related monetary problems, could hamper exports to neighbouring countries.
The heavy rains have also affected planting of the 2001/02 maize crop. Harvest is due to start from March and early prospects are poor. Reduced plantings with respect to last year�s average level are reported, as well as anticipated below-average yields due to the likely outburst of plant diseases.
Normal rainfall in December in the highlands and highland valleys has benefited the development of the recently planted 2001/02 first (main) cereal and potato crops. Slightly below-normal rains are reported in the eastern parts, but without disruption to crops thanks to adequate reservoir levels. Livestock and pastures are reported in good conditions. The area planted is estimated at the average level of the past 5 years. Harvesting is due to start from April and early prospects are good assuming normal weather conditions persist.
Harvesting of the 2001 wheat crop has been recently completed and output collected has been an above-average 3 million tonnes. A higher outturn had been earlier forecast but heavy rains in November in the key producing areas of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul damaged the crops.
Harvesting of the first (main) season maize crop is about to start in the important southern producing states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, while planting of the second season crop (�zafrihna�) has started in the north and north-east areas of the country. A bumper 38.5 million tonnes is initially forecast from both crops. Damage incurred to the first season crop by dry weather at planting (August 2001) is expected to be offset by increased plantings in the second season crop. Expanding exports have been a key incentive in farmers� decision to enlarge the area planted to maize.
Harvesting of the 2002 paddy crop has recently started and an above-average production of some 11 million tonnes is tentatively forecast.
Weather conditions have benefited the development of the 2001 wheat crop. Harvesting is well advanced and output is tentatively forecast at a near record 1.8 million tonnes. Growing conditions are also adequate for the 2002 maize crop. Harvesting is due to start from March and an average output is provisionally forecast.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (December/November) are expected to decline from the previous year�s 580 000 tonnes to some 300 000 tonnes, while maize imports in 2002/03 (February/January) should remain close to the previous year�s volume of 1.1 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2001/02 second season cereal crops, principally maize and sorghum, is underway and above-average outputs from both cereals are anticipated, reflecting enlarged plantings and improved yields, particularly for sorghum.
Food assistance from the international community is being provided to the internally displaced population, victims of the civil strife affecting the country.
Planting of the 2002 maize crop has been completed virtually in most of the country. An increase in the area planted with respect to the previous year is reported. Harvesting is due to start from May and, assuming normal weather conditions, maize output is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. Planting of the important first paddy crop has been virtually completed in the main producing provinces of Guavas, Loa, Los Rio and Guanaco. Harvesting is due to start from April but the bulk of the crop should be harvested in May. An above-average output is also anticipated.
Wheat imports in marketing year 2001/02 (July/June) should decline from some 494 000 tonnes in the previous year to about 450 000 tonnes, mainly as a result of large carry-over stocks from the precedent year. Maize imports in 2002 (January/December) is forecast to about 200 000 tonnes, close to the volume imported in 2001.
Torrential rains throughout the country have been recorded during the first week of February, with consequent heavy flooding and mudslides. Considerable damage to rural housing and infrastructure is reported in some parts, as well as minor damage to crops so far. Emergency relief assistance is being provided by the government. An appeal for international aid has been made by the government.
Planting of maize, which is grown all year around, is underway. Aggregate cereal output collected in 2001 has been a record 3.7 million tonnes, much above the five year average of 2.9 million tonnes. Production of maize was a historical high 1.3 million tonnes. Above-average outputs of 170 000 tonnes and 180 000 tonnes of wheat and barley respectively were also gathered. The important paddy crop was 2 million tonnes, some 400 000 tonnes over the average.
Despite the satisfactory outputs collected, imports of wheat and maize in marketing year 2002 (January/December) are forecast to remain at the relatively high level of 2001.
Harvesting of the 2001 wheat and barley crops has been recently completed, following some year end disruptions caused by the heavy rains that seriously affected the southern areas of the sub-region. Wheat output is provisionally estimated at about 400 000 tonnes, a significant increase from last year�s poor results but still below average. An above-average barley output has been gathered, mainly reflecting enlarged plantings with respect to the previous year. Harvesting of the important paddy crop is due to start from March. Prospects are favourable due to the accumulation of soil moisture; however, the area planted is some 7 percent below last year�s level and output is tentatively forecast to be slightly below average.
Harvesting of the 2001 maize crop has been just completed and output is provisionally estimated at a record 1.4 million tonnes, compared to the past 5-year average of 1.1 million tonnes. Production of sorghum in 2001, by contrast, was slightly below average while an average paddy output was collected.
In the EC, wheat output in 2001 is estimated at 92 million tonnes, more than 12 percent lower than the previous year, due to reduced area and adverse weather at planting time. Output of coarse grains remained virtually unchanged from 2000 at 109.6 million tonnes. Early indications for the 2002 winter cereals point to a significant recovery in the wheat area by about 10 percent. Although overall planting conditions were reported to be below average, they were considerably improved compared to the previous year and crops are generally in good condition. Large increases in plantings are reported particularly in France and the United Kingdom after last year�s reduced outputs. Paddy production rose in the EC in 2001, with improved crops in Italy, Portugal and Spain, more than offsetting a contraction in France and Greece. Although planting of the 2002 crop will not start until April-May, the drought that is affecting the northern rice producing regions of Italy (the Community�s largest producer) may lead to a smaller crop next year, if availability of irrigation water remains short.
Prospects for the winter cereal crop (mostly wheat) are satisfactory and normal production is expected. Winter conditions are reported to be particularly harsh this winter in some northern mountainous areas. Government food reserves and WFP food aid has been mobilized for distribution to the worst affected people.
Grain harvest in 2001 amounted to 5.2 million tonnes compared with about 5 million tonnes the previous year. The 2001 grain harvest included 0.8 million tonnes of wheat, 1.7 million tonnes of barley and 1.6 million tonnes of rye. Winter planting campaign has been completed under favourable conditions. However, much depends on later winter frost and the level of precipitation.
Cereal import requirements for 2001/02 marketing year are estimated at 706 000 tonnes, which is slightly below the previous year�s import estimates of 734 000 tonnes. Cereal imports in 2001/02 comprised of 550 000 tonnes of wheat, 65 000 tonnes of barley, 40 000 tonnes of maize and 29 000 tonnes of rye. The source of imports are mainly the CIS countries.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA* (1 February)
Cereal production in 2001 was estimated at 1 million tonnes, which is slightly above the drought reduced harvest in the preceding year. Last year�s harvest included 269 000 tonnes of wheat, 640 000 tonnes of maize and 55 000 tonnes of barley. The reduced harvest in 2001 was due to May floods and hail in the northern regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the adjacent areas of Republica Serbska. Cereal import requirement in 2001/02 marketing year is estimated at 290 000 tonnes, including 100 000 tonnes of food aid.
Good snowfalls during the winter so far have improved prospects for the winter crops, providing protection from low temperatures and also ensuring better moisture availability for spring development after prevailing dry conditions in the past two seasons. Despite the excessively dry conditions in the autumn, the area sown to wheat and barley for the 2002 harvest is officially reported to have increased by about 8 percent from the previous year to 1.4 million hectares, although germination rates were reported to be sub-normal in parts.
Cereal harvest in 2001 amounted to 3.1 million tonnes, which is about 450 000 tonnes higher compared with 2000. Cereal production in 2001 included 912 000 tonnes of wheat, 2 million tonnes of maize and 165 000 tonnes of barley, which compares to 929 000 tonnes of wheat, 1.5 million tonnes of maize and 151 000 tonnes of barley in the previous year. Cereal exports this year are seen at about 320 000 tonnes, which includes 170 000 tonnes of maize and 150 000 tonnes of wheat. This year winter cereals have been planted to a comparable area sown in 2001.
In the Czech Republic latest information suggests that the winter wheat area has probably declined as a result of the particularly wet conditions during the autumn sowing period. However, the overwinter weather for the dormant grains is reported to have been generally satisfactory so far.
Grain production in 2001 is estimated at 579 000 tonnes, which is about 124 000 tonnes lower than the harvest in 2000. Grain harvest in 2001 comprised of 131 000 tonnes of wheat, 284 000 tonnes of barley, 85 000 tonnes of oats and 41 000 tonnes of rye. Cereal import requirement for the 2001/02 (July/June) is estimated at 247 000 tonnes, which is slightly more than the previous marketing year�s reports and includes 140 000 tonnes of wheat, 60 000 tonnes of maize and 30 000 tonnes of barley.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA (6 February)
After two years of predominantly dry conditions, indications of increased precipitation this winter point to a likely improvement in soil moisture reserves and some recovery in cereal yields in 2002.
The winter grain area is tentatively estimated to be similar to the previous year�s level and about the average of the past five years. The wheat area is put at 1.1 million hectares compared to 1.2 million hectares for the 2001 harvest. Winter conditions are reported to be generally satisfactory as good snow cover has protected crops from cold winter temperatures.
Grain harvest in 2001 totalled 894 000 tonnes from an area of 420 000 hectares, which is similar to the 2000 production and area under grains. Output in 2001 included 390 000 tonnes of wheat, 260 000 tonnes of barley and 120 000 tonnes of rye, which compares with the 2000 harvest of 400 000 tonnes of wheat, 255 000 tonnes of barley and 130 000 tonnes of rye. This year, similar area to 2001 has been seeded to winter cereals and winter kill seems to be minimal with a high proportion of cereal crops in good condition.
Lithuania harvested about than 2.5 million tonnes of grains in 2001, which compares with 2.6 million tonnes in 2000. Last year�s harvest included 780 000 tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes of barley and 480 000 tonnes of rye. During the 2001/02 marketing year, cereal exports are estimated at about 130 000 tonnes, mainly wheat (100 000 tonnes) and rye (20 000 tonnes), while cereal import requirement is estimated at 61 000 tonnes. Area sown to winter cereals this year is similar to the preceding year while winter crops are reportedly in good conditions.
Grain harvest in 2001 at 2.7 million tonnes was about 825 000 tonnes in excess of the harvest in the preceding year and nearly 898 000 tonnes higher than the average harvest of the past five years. The 2001 output included 1.4 million tonnes of wheat, 1 million tonnes of maize and 269 000 tonnes of barley. The country remains a net importer of grains, mainly food grade wheat (20 000 tonnes) and some rice (6 000 tonnes).
Early information indicates that the winter grain area is down from the previous year, largely in response to poor price prospects. Weather conditions are reported to be generally satisfactory with a good cover of snow protecting dormant crops from this winters particularly cold temperatures.
Winter snowfall has improved conditions for the winter grain crops, which were planted into very dry soils last autumn. Despite the dry conditions, the total area of winter grains is reported to be just slightly down from that in the previous year. Under conditions of drought, winter crops give better returns than spring ones so farmers preferred to go ahead with an almost normal winter planting. On current indications, however, yields will likely be down this year because of poor germination associated with the earlier dry conditions and the fact that a lot of the crop was planted after the optimum sowing date.
RUSSIAN FEDERATION (1 February)
Grain harvest in 2001 was estimated at nearly 85 million tonnes compared with about 65 million tonnes in 2000. Higher yields, lower winter-kill and a small increase in area were the main reasons for higher production in 2001. This included 47 million tonnes of wheat, 19 million tonnes of barley, 6 million tonnes of rye and 8 million tonnes of oats. Maize production declined to about 830 000 tonnes in 2001 compared with 1.5 million tonnes in 2000 due to prolonged hot and dry weather in July/August and rainy weather in October.
Most of the winter cereals were planted before the harsh winter frost could damage large areas of crops. The government plans to increase area sown to winter cereals, in particular wheat and barley, by about 10 percent compared with 2001. Therefore, it is likely that winter cereal harvest this year will be at least as high as the harvest in 2001.
Cereal exports in 2001/02 marketing year are estimated at more than 4 million tonnes while cereal imports are estimated at about 2.8 million tonnes. In 2000/01 marketing year, Russia imported about 2.6 million tonnes and exported 1.2 million tonnes of cereals. Despite a record high cereal production since the Soviet era, exports have not increased proportionately due to increased non-food domestic consumption of cereals and lack of port facilities to handle large quantities of cereals. Cereal exports this year includes 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 1.5 million tonnes of barley, while imports include 1.2 million tonnes of maize, 900 000 tonnes of wheat, 250 000 tonnes of barley and 150 000 tonnes of rye.
Civil strife and military operations in Chechnya continue to disrupt normal life and agricultural activities. WFP and some international NGOs continue to provide supplementary food and non-food assistance to internally displaced and most vulnerable populations in the North Caucasus. WFP plans to distribute emergency food aid to 310 000 beneficiaries in Ingushetia and Chechnya. This emergency programme, which started on 1 January 2001 is expected to continue until 30 June 2002 by then about 65 000 tonnes of food aid would have been distributed to about 270 000 internally displaced and food insecure vulnerable people.
Weather condition for the over-wintering grain crops are reported to be generally satisfactory and normal production is expected in 2002.
Conditions are satisfactory for the winter grain crops and normal production is expected.
Grain harvest in 2001 is estimated at about 39.7 million tonnes, which compares with only 25.4 million tonnes in 2000. Last year�s production included 21.3 million tonnes of wheat, 10 million tonnes of barley, 3.6 million tonnes of maize and 1.8 million tonnes of rye. The significantly higher production is mainly due to higher yields, and some increase in area under wheat.
Contrary to earlier reports, cereal winter-kill have been minimal so far this year and the crop conditions in many parts of the country are reportedly good. While late November and December frost had raised fears of a significantly large winter-kill, official estimates now indicate that winter cereal harvest may not be significantly lower than the good crop of last year.
Cereal exports in 2001/02 marketing year are estimated at 7.4 million tonnes, compared to 1.7 million tonnes in the previous year. This year�s exports have been boosted partly by lower tariffs on Ukrainian cereals in the EU.
YUGOSLAVIA, FED. REP. OF (SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO)* (5 February)
Cereal harvest in 2001 totalled 8.8 million tonnes compared with the drought and conflict affected harvest of 5.2 million tonnes in 2000. Cereal harvest last year included 2.9 million tonnes of wheat, 5.5 million tonnes of maize and 303 000 tonnes of barley. Given the current estimated domestic utilization and production, cereal exports for 2001/02 marketing year are estimated at 700 000 tonnes, including 400 000 tonnes of wheat and 300 000 tonnes of maize.
The country had planned to sow about 1 million hectares to winter crops, including 750 000 hectares to wheat. However, rainy weather conditions in late September and early November hampered the sowing campaign; as a result, the expected increase in cropped area has not been fully achieved. Provided sufficient seeds and fertilizers are available and favourable weather conditions prevail, a good harvest is in prospect.
WFP has extended its emergency food assistance programme, which will continuously phase out by December 2002. WFP currently assists some 575 000 beneficiaries, of which 215 000 are refugees and 360 000 social cases. The social cases will be phased out from the combined programme by mid-2002.
Latest estimates put the 2001 wheat output at about 21.3 million tonnes, more than 20 percent down from the previous year as a result of severe drought. Precipitation has remained well below normal in many areas throughout the winter so far and prospects for the size of the 2002 wheat crop (mostly planted in May) remain very uncertain pending the weather in the coming months. Output of coarse grains in 2001 was also affected by the drought, falling sharply to 23 million tonnes, about 6 percent down from the previous year�s already reduced crop.
The final official estimate of the 2001 wheat crop is 53.3 million tonnes, some 12 percent down from 2000 and the smallest crop since 1988. The decrease was mostly caused by a reduction in plantings, although average yields also fell somewhat compared to the previous year. According to the USDA Seedings report of 11 January, the winter wheat area for the 2002 harvest has declined again marginally from last year�s already low level, to 16.6 million hectares, the smallest area since 1971. Although, the Hard Red Winter wheat area (which accounts for about 70 percent of the total) is estimated to be about 1 percent up from the previous year, this increase is more than offset by reduced plantings of Soft Red Winter and White Winter wheat. Establishment of the crops in many key producing areas was somewhat patchy due to dry conditions at planting time and persisting dryness in these areas could lead to poor development when dormancy breaks in the coming weeks.
The 2001 coarse grains crop is now estimated at 262 million tonnes, almost 5 percent down from the previous year's crop and just below the average of the past five years. Of the total, maize is estimated to account for about 241 million tonnes, compared to 253 million tonnes in 2000. A record rice crop was harvested in 2001 following an 8 percent expansion in plantings and increased yields. All of the production gain was in the form of long grain rice, while low prices at planting time resulted in falling production of medium and short grain rice.
The island was affected by heavy rains and strong winds on 27-28 December 2001, leaving behind fallen trees and flooded homes and roads, and incurring damage to the country�s infrastructure, including drainage pipes in some areas.
In Australia, the 2001 wheat harvest is estimated at about 23 million tonnes. Although the season got off to a poor start in Western Australia and Queensland, due to dry weather, conditions in Western Australia improved as the season went on. As a result, average yields in this state have turned out much higher than anticipated. Output of winter coarse grains (mostly barley and oats), is estimated to have remained about the level of the previous year at some 8 million tonnes. The development of the rice plants for the 2002 season in Australia has been delayed by cool temperatures at the onset of the season in October last year and again in January. As a result, yields are expected to be significantly lower than in 2001. Combined with a 10 percent contraction in the area to 167 000 hectares, production is expected to reach about 1.4 million tonnes, down from almost 1.8 million tonnes in 2001.
The country has been affected by several natural disasters in the past few months. Early in December, tropical storm �Trina� hit the islands of Avarua and Mangaia, causing heavy rainfall and coastal flooding, particularly in the latter island. The floods destroyed fruit and root crops, mainly taro, as well as livestock, thus jeopardizing the food supply situation in the island. Emergency food and other types of relief assistance are being provided by the government and local and international institutions in the island. An appeal has been launched to the international community to help rehabilitate the agricultural sector.
The country is also threatened by the presence of the fruit fly, discovered in November 2001, in the surrounding areas of the capital Rarotonga. The insect is considered one of the most destructive pests of fruit and vegetables (between 80 and 90 percent of crops under threat). A surveillance programme has been initiated by the government and latest official information indicates that the threat might be receding. Cases of dengue fever have also been discovered in the capital. An eradication programme in the affected areas is being carried out by the government.
The island was severely hit by tropical cyclone �Waka� on the first days of the year. High winds and rough seas resulted in devastating coastal and inland flooding which destroyed or seriously damaged both urban and rural infrastructure, and seriously affected the agricultural sector. Food and cash crops were wiped out in several areas and fruit trees destroyed in many villages. Severe damage to property and infrastructure is also reported in the neighbouring islands, principally the Vava�u group of islands. An appeal to the international community has been made by the government to assist in the rehabilitation of the economy. Emergency relief assistance has been provided by the government in collaboration with national and international institutions.
The country was shaken by a strong earthquake on 3 January 2002, which caused damage to buildings, bridges, wharves and other infrastructure. This may have affected the food situation, particularly in Port Vila, the capital, the most affected location. No request for international assistance has been made by the government.