FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 2002 5

• LOCUST SITUATION

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

Harvesting of the 2001/02 cereal crops has started in southern Africa. In eastern Africa, the main season crop is maturing in Tanzania, while elsewhere in the sub-region planting of the main season crops is underway except in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan, where sowing is not due to commence for one or two months. In central Africa and the coastal countries of western Africa planting has started, but in Sahelian countries it will not begin until June.

Cereal Crop Calendar

In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 2001/02 secondary season cereal crops is completed, except in Ethiopia, where the "belg" crops are harvested from June. Latest FAO estimates indicate an aggregate 2001/02 cereal production of 23.3 million tonnes, 13 percent higher than the previous year. In Eritrea, the 2001 cereal crop was much larger than the previous year due to favourable rainfall during the main cropping season. Total cereal output is estimated at 220 000 tonnes, three times higher than the previous year. In Ethiopia, cereal production is forecast at an above-average 8.8 million tonnes. A bumper main "meher" crop was gathered, mainly due to favourable weather. In Kenya, reflecting abundant rains in major cereal producing areas, the aggregate 2001/02 cereal production is provisionally estimated at 3.2 million tonnes, 54 percent and 22 percent above the previous year's crop and the previous five-year average respectively. Planting of this year's main season coarse grains is underway. In Tanzania, there has been an improvement in the recently harvested secondary cereal crop, but the main season harvest was poor due to erratic rains. The aggregate 2001 cereal output is estimated at about 4 million tonnes, about 16 percent above the previous year. Prospects for the 2001/02 main maize crop in the unimodal rainfall areas are favourable, reflecting sufficient rains since the beginning of the season. In Somalia, the output of the recently harvested secondary ("deyr") season cereal crops, forecast at 140 000 tonnes, is significantly above the post-war average, reflecting improved rainfall during the season. However, the main ("Gu") season was below average at 127 000 tonnes. Latest estimates put the aggregate 2001/02 cereal production at 267 000 tonnes, about 17 percent below the previous year. In Sudan, the 2001/02 cereal harvest has recovered from the previous year due to favourable weather, and the output is estimated at about 4.8 million tonnes, about 36 percent above the previous year. Harvesting of the wheat crop is about to start and production is forecast at 315 000 tonnes, 5 percent more than last year. In Uganda, good secondary and main season cereal crops were gathered due to favourable rains. The 2001/02 aggregate cereal output is, therefore, estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, 9 percent above the previous year's crop and 3 percent above the average of the last five years.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the sub-region in 2001/02 is estimated at 3.9 million tonnes. With commercial imports anticipated at 2.9 million tonnes, the food aid requirement is estimated at 0.96 million tonnes. Against this requirement, pledges as of late March amount to 0.3 million tonnes of which 0.3 million tonnes have been delivered.

In southern Africa, prospects for the 2002 cereal crops, to be harvested from April, have deteriorated in several countries following prolonged dry spells in the past month. In Zimbabwe, maize production is anticipated to be below average for the second consecutive year, due to reduced plantings and dry weather. Well below average precipitation in parts of Malawi, Zambia and Swaziland is also likely to result in poor crops this year. In Lesotho, prospects for the cereal harvest have deteriorated following excessive rains. In Mozambique, severe crop losses due to dry weather have been experienced in the southern provinces, and reduced cereal production is expected. Overall harvest prospects are uncertain due to erratic rains in the main northern and central producing areas. By contrast, food outlook in South Africa is generally favourable following an increase in sown area and adequate precipitation in the main maize producing areas. Maize production is, therefore, expected to recover from a reduced level last year.

In the sub-region as a whole food supply is tight following the sharply reduced maize harvest in 2001 and delayed imports. Maize prices have increased sharply, particularly in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, where severe food shortages have emerged.

The aggregate cereal import requirement in the 2002/03 marketing year (April/March) is forecast to increase over the high levels of 2001/02, reflecting reduced harvests and depletion of carry-over stocks.

In western Africa, seasonably dry conditions prevail in the Sahel while the growing season is starting in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea. Reflecting generally favourable growing conditions, particularly from June to August 2001, above average to record crops have been gathered in all Sahelian countries except Mauritania. The 2001 rainy season started generally on time and rains were regular and well-distributed throughout the rainy season. FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions in the 9 CILSS member countries estimated aggregate 2001 cereal production (including rice in paddy terms) at 11.7 million tonnes, with record crops in Burkina Faso, Gambia and Niger, and above average crops in Chad, Mali and Senegal. Production in Cape Verde was lower than the previous year but above average.

In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the rainy season has just started and planting of the first maize crop is in progress. Cereal harvests in 2001 were generally good except in Liberia and Sierra Leone where past or current civil strife hampered agricultural activities, and in northern Ghana where unusually dry weather conditions affected crop production. Liberia and Sierra Leone remain heavily dependent on international food assistance.

Cereal import requirements of the sub-region in 2001/02 is estimated at 7.3 tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 6.9 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at 0.4 million tonnes mainly in wheat and rice. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late March 2002 amount to around 0.2 million tonnes, of which 150 000 tonnes have been delivered so far. Local purchases are strongly recommended to cover ongoing or foreseen food aid programmes or for the replenishment of the national security stocks.

LOCUST SITUATION

The Desert Locust situation has remained generally calm. Insignificant numbers of adults were reported in parts of northwestern Mauritania and Niger, and on the Red Sea coast of Sudan and Eritrea.

Although very little rain fell in February, breeding conditions are likely to be favourable in southwestern Mauritania due to the unseasonable rains in January. Scattered adults have been reported near Arlit in Niger. There were also reports of a few maturing locusts at Aguelhok in Mali. No significant changes in the current situation are anticipated in the months ahead.

In Sudan scattered adults mixed with African Migratory Locust persisted in a few places in the Tokar delta on the Red Sea coast, while in Eritrea, scattered hoppers are reported on the northern coastal plains. Elsewhere the situation remains calm.

In central Africa, crop prospects are generally favourable in Central African Republic and Cameroun, where aggregate cereal output is anticipated to be average or above average. Agriculture is steadily recovering in the Republic of Congo following civil conflict in 1998 and 1999. However, persistent civil strife in the Democratic Republic of Congo continues to hamper agricultural and marketing activities.

For the 2001/02 marketing year, the cereal import requirement for the seven countries of the sub-region is estimated at 826 000 tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late March amount to 31 000 tonnes, of which 18 000 tonnes have been delivered.

The table below summarises sub-Saharan Africa's cereal import and food aid requirements by sub-region.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Import and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tonnes)