Urea prices strengthened over the past two months (May-June) and the June average was about 8 percent higher than a year earlier. This development reflects the disappearance of previously ample supplies due to continuing strong demand during the period, particularly in the United States and Asia. In eastern Europe, prices increased for both Black Sea and Baltic origin urea. However, demand is not expected to continue as strong as in recent months with summer crop planting in the region now completed. In Thailand, urea demand is strong with the onset of the rainy season while stocks are low. Demand from Viet Nam is lower than expected, domestic demand in the south has come to an end and demand in the north is met from suppliers in Indonesia, the Near East and Bangladesh. India and China are scheduled to import modest volumes of urea, China reportedly re-exported
60 000 tonnes to the Democratic People Republic of Korea. The effect of recent changes in price interventions in India has the potential to stimulate imports in August and September to meet demand during the forthcoming Kharif season. Increased urea demand in Chile is met primarily from suppliers in Argentina, demand from Brazil is about normal for this time of the season. Urea granular prices in the United States increased and resellers continued maintaining increased prices in the expectation that demand would remain for urea application on rice and the approaching cotton season. Higher urea prices in the United States would provide again, however, export opportunities for Near East producers. Urea production in Canada declined considerably in the first half of 2002 compared to one year ago.
| May 2002 |
June 2002 |
June 2001 |
Change from last year 1/ |
|
| ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | ( . percentage . ) | |||
| Urea | ||||
| eastern Europe | 88-90 | 91-93 | 85-86 | 7.6 |
| Near East | 103-105 | 107-109 | 90-93 | 18.0 |
| Ammonium Sulphate | ||||
| eastern Europe | 44-46 | 44-45 | 50-54 | -14.4 |
| U.S. Gulf | 60-65 | 60-63 | 60-65 | -1.6 |
| western Europe | 55-58 | 55-58 | 70-75 | -22.1 |
| Diammonium Phosphate | ||||
| Jordan | 161-164 | 164-166 | 158-160 | 3.8 |
| North Africa | 149-155 | 155-159 | 136-147 | 11.0 |
| U.S. Gulf | 153-156 | 160-164 | 134-136 | 20.0 |
| Triple Superphosphate | ||||
| North Africa | 121-127 | 122-126 | 118-125 | 2.1 |
| U.S. Gulf | 132-134 | 129-131 | 119-123 | 7.4 |
| Muriate of Potash | ||||
| eastern Europe | 92-107 | 92-107 | 91-106 | 1.0 |
| Vancouver | 111-123 | 111-123 | 111-130 | -2.9 |
| western Europe | 105-115 | 105-115 | 115-122 | -7.2 |
Prices of ammonium sulphate remained almost stable over the past two months and are about 22 percent lower than prices a year earlier.
Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices continued to increase from May to June. The largest increase was noted in the US Gulf region, where June prices were about 20 percent higher than a year earlier. Tight supply in the US Gulf and strong demand from Mexico augmented by occasional spot sales to China point to continuing strong prices in the short term. China is importing DAP from Morocco and Tunisia. China also introduced changes in rock phosphate exports in an effort to promote domestic phosphate fertilizer production. In Pakistan import requirements for the Rabi season were met from Tunisia and the Russian Federation, while in India from Jordan and the Russian Federation. More imports are required to meet demand during Kharif planting. Demand for DAP from Latin
America is strong and involves a substantial volume of material. Mexico’s DAP imports will considerably increase compared to last year as current domestic production is severely constrained.
Prices of triple superphosphate (TSP) from North Africa and the US Gulf have been stable over the past four weeks. Prices from both origins lower than a year earlier, by 7 and 2 percent respectively. Average spot prices of muriate of potash (MOP) remained unchanged over the past two months and similar to those at the same time last year. Potash demand in Europe is again at about the same level as in 2000. Increased MOP imports in Thailand are driven by strong demand for compound fertilizers instigated by an early start of the rainy season. Increased potash imports by Brazil are expected in the second half of the year; potash application to date has been higher than a year ago.