FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.2 - August 2002 p.5

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

• LOCUST SITUATION

The harvesting of the 2001/02 coarse grain crops is virtually complete in southern Africa. In several countries of eastern Africa, the main season crops are either being harvested or are in the ground. However, the planting season for the main cereal crops has started in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan. Coarse grain crops are maturing in parts of the coastal countries of western Africa and are at flowering or grain formation stages in parts of central Africa. In the Sahelian countries of western Africa main season cereal crops have recently been planted.

Table I: Cereal Crop Calendar

In eastern Africa, with poor rainfall so far in most parts during the current agricultural season, the early outlook for the 2002 crops is generally unfavourable. In Eritrea, the outlook for this year�s agricultural season, which has just started, is bleak due to the failure of the short (azmera) rains. Continued drought into the important early months of the main (kiremti) season has exacerbated the problem. In Ethiopia, severe drought conditions in the eastern and north-eastern pastoral regions have severely affected pastoralists and caused the death of large numbers of livestock. The partial failure of the short rains (belg) season and the continued dry conditions into the early months of the main (meher) season have also given rise to bleak food supply prospects. In Kenya, the current �long rains� have been inadequate in several parts, leading to a poor food outlook for 2002/03. The food supply situation is quite alarming in the districts of Mandera, Moyale, southern parts of Tana River, West Pokot, Koibatek, Marakwet and Baringo. In Somalia, favourable prospects for the current main season (�Gu�) crops are reported. However, continued insecurity and escalation of conflict in parts with the attendant population displacement are cause for serious concern. In Sudan, early crop prospects are unfavourable due to delayed onset of rains and low water levels in major rivers that may affect irrigated crops. In Tanzania and Uganda, overall food outlook is favourable. However, a large number of food insecure people in both countries due to civil strife in parts (Uganda) and localized crop failures (Tanzania) depend on food assistance.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the countries of the sub-region in 2002 is estimated at 4.1 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 3.1 million tonnes and the food aid requirements at one million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late July amount to 0.5 million tonnes of which 0.45 million tonnes had been delivered.

In southern Africa, harvesting of the 2002 main season cereal crops is completed. Crops were adversely affected by a prolonged dry spell from January to March in large areas of the sub-region or by excessive rains in parts. Production declined for the second consecutive year in most countries, except in South Africa, Mozambique and Angola. Output of maize, the sub-region�s main staple is estimated at 13.6 million tonnes, only slightly above the 2001 level. The dry conditions in the sub-region this year did not affect the main growing areas in South Africa and the maize output is forecast at 9.09 million tonnes, 22 percent above last year�s reduced crop. By contrast, in Zimbabwe the combined effects of widespread drought and a decline in plantings in the commercial sector due to land reform activities, resulted in a maize output only one-quarter of the normal level two years ago. In Zambia, prolonged dry weather in five of the nine provinces, sharply reduced crop yields. Production of maize is estimated at 606 000 tonnes, 24 percent lower than the reduced level of 2001 and 42 percent below the normal level of 2000. In Malawi, maize production declined 10 percent from last year�s poor harvest to about 1.5 million tonnes. This mainly reflects dry weather during February-March and early cessation of rains in April. Consumption of green maize before the harvest, due to the severe food shortages early in the year, further diminished the output. Severe dry weather and reductions in coarse grain production were also experienced in Swaziland, Botswana and Namibia. In Lesotho, excessive rains at planting, followed by hail and frost, resulted in a decline of one-third in maize output from the already poor level of the previous year. By contrast, in Mozambique this year�s maize production increased 8 percent from the previous year to 1.2 million tonnes. However, production was sharply reduced in southern provinces. In Angola, the millet and sorghum harvest declined by 6 percent due to late rains and military activities, but the output of the main maize crop remained unchanged. In Madagascar, excessive precipitation from a recent cyclone has disrupted the 2002 paddy harvest, leading to concerns over both the quantity and quality of the crop. Paddy output is forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, down by 200 000 tonnes from 2001.

The sub-region�s aggregate cereal import requirement in marketing year 2002/03 (May/April) is estimated at 7.1 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 4.7 million tonnes, leaving 2.4 million tonnes to be covered by food aid. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late July amounted to 300�000 tonnes.

In western Africa, the rainy season in the coastal countries has generally been normal so far, except in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia where precipitation was below average until early July. In addition, agricultural activities in Liberia have been disrupted by renewed civil strife since January, pointing to a reduced rice crop this year. The 2001 aggregate cereal output for the eight coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea (Benin, C�te d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo) is estimated at some 29.5 million tonnes compared to 29.4 million tonnes in 2000. Average to above-average harvests were gathered in all the coastal countries, except in Ghana and Sierra Leone.

In the Sahel, extended dry weather conditions over most parts of the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania and Senegal have damaged crop prospects and raised serious concerns over the food supply outlook. Following the first rains in June, a dry spell through late June and July has seriously affected growing crops. Re-plantings were carried out in several areas but overall yield potential was seriously compromised. In Cape Verde, prospects for the maize crop, normally planted from July, are unfavourable due to delayed onset of rains. A recovery in crop prospects will heavily depend on the performance of rainfall in August. By contrast, crop growing conditions have improved in central and eastern parts of the Sahel with increased and better distributed rainfall in most agricultural regions of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger. However, substantial replantings were necessary.

Following the release of final production estimates for 2001 in most CILSS member countries, the aggregate output of cereals (including rice in milled equivalent) has been put at about 12 million tonnes. This is about 30 percent higher than in 2000 and 24 percent above the average for the last five years. Record crops were harvested in Burkina Faso, Gambia and Niger, while output was above average in Chad, Mali and Senegal. Production in Cape Verde was lower than the previous year but above average.

In the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the food supply situation is expected to remain satisfactory through the 2002 marketing year, except in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone where production and marketing activities have been affected by current or past civil strife. In the Sahel, the food supply situation is expected to be stable until the next harvest from October, except in Mauritania where thousands of people are threatened by serious food shortages. Elsewhere in the Sahel, farmers� stocks have been replenished and markets are well supplied. However, access to food for some sections of the population may be difficult, following above-normal cereal prices in most countries. Several areas within countries also remain at risk of food shortages and may require some assistance, notably in Cape Verde, Chad, Niger and Senegal. Localised deficits can be covered by transfers from surplus areas or through triangular transactions.

The aggregate cereal import requirement of the western Africa sub-region in the 2001/2002 marketing year is estimated at 7.4 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 7.0 million tonnes and food aid requirement at 0.4 million tonnes, mainly wheat and rice.

LOCUST SITUATION

The Desert Locust situation remained calm during July. Rainfall was generally poor in the summer breeding areas of the Sahel in West Africa but low numbers of adults are probably present in a few areas of south-eastern Mauritania and in northern Mali. Small-scale breeding is expected to occur in southern Mauritania, northern Mali and Niger as the rains increase in these areas. A few individual locust adults were reported in the summer breeding areas in Sudan during July.

In central Africa, average to above-average harvests were gathered in 2001 in most countries except the Democratic Republic of Congo affected by civil strife. Crops are currently growing under generally favourable conditions in Cameroon and Central African Republic. However, in the Republic of Congo, a resurgence of fighting in the Pool region (surrounding the capital Brazzaville) at the end of March led to new population displacements and disrupted agricultural and marketing activities. In Democratic Republic of Congo, persistent fighting continues to result in fresh waves of population displacements and increasing food insecurity. In late July, some 350 newly displaced people were reported to have arrived in the city of Kindu, fleeing fighting in surrounding areas where severe food shortages are also reported.

For the 2002 marketing year, the cereal import requirement for the seven countries of the sub-region is estimated at about 826�000 tonnes, to be met almost entirely through commercial channels.

The table below summarises sub-Saharan Africa�s cereal import and food aid requirements by sub-region.

Table II: Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Import and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region
(in thousand tonnes)