Above-average precipitation in September, partly offset poor rainfall in July and August and significantly improved prospects for the 2002 Kharif harvest. Thus, the forecast output of the paddy crop, which is presently being gathered, has been increased to 5.9 million tonnes (3.9 million tonnes milled rice), 5 percent above the previous season, but still slightly below average. Rice exports for 2002 are estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, about 40 percent below 2.3 million tonnes exported in 2001, while the rice export target for 2003 is tentatively kept at the same level as that of 2002, 1.4 million tonnes.
The 2002 coarse grain crop, harvesting of which is almost completed, also benefited from the good late season rainfall and is now estimated to yield an average production of some 2.1 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.
Planting of the winter (Rabi) wheat, which is mainly grown under irrigation, started last month and will continue through December. Reflecting adequate soil moisture and sufficient availability of irrigation water, the outcome of the harvest in April-May 2003 is tentatively forecast at 19.8 million tonnes. The country is expected to have exported from the 2002 crop some 1 million tonnes of wheat by the end of December, at which time the government will review its stock position to determine the export availability for next year.
Over the past few years, Balochistan and parts of Sindh provinces received much below-normal rainfall, eventually leading to drought. Assistance to the drought-affected population is being provided through a WFP Emergency Operation. In addition, WFP food assistance to Afghan refugees awaiting repatriation continues to be required. On 31 October 2002, a WFP Emergency Operation was approved for providing humanitarian assistance to 288 000 Afghan refugees in the border areas inside Pakistan for an additional 12 months.