FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.3 - December 2002 p.5

Part II : Position by sub-region

Planting of main season crops has started in southern Africa. Crops in several countries in eastern Africa are maturing or being harvested, while harvesting of main season crops is complete or nearing completion in Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan. Harvesting is also complete in the Sahelian countries.

Cereal Crop Calendar

In southern Africa, harvesting of the 2002 wheat crop is well advanced. Aggregate output is forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, 9 percent lower than last year but still average. This reflects a decline of 9 percent in the largest producer, South Africa, mainly as a result of lower yields following high temperatures in the northern growing areas in October. In Zimbabwe, official forecasts point to a crop of 213 000 tonnes, one of the lowest in the past decade as a result of lower yields and planted area due to land reform activities.

Planting of the 2003 cereal crops, mainly maize, is underway. Prospects are uncertain. Following a good start of the rainy season in late October and early November, dry weather prevailed in the sub-region in the second and third dekad of November delaying planting and leading to failure of the early planted crops. Precipitation resumed in several areas in the first dekad of December, notably in South Africa, providing relief from dryness. However, more rains are needed in Swaziland, Botswana, southern parts of Malawi and Zimbabwe, southern and central parts of Mozambique and in north-eastern parts of Zambia.

Estimates of the 2002 coarse grains, mainly maize, stand at 14.8 million tonnes, which is slightly higher than last year's reduced level. This mainly reflects sharp declines for the second consecutive year in most countries of the sub-region, compensated by an increase of 22 percent in South Africa, which was not affected by the drought this year. As a result of adverse weather and lower plantings, production was reduced in all other countries of the sub-region, except Botswana. The food supply situation is tight and food assistance is needed for 14.4 million people affected by a poor harvest in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Swaziland and Lesotho. In Angola, food assistance is needed for 1.9 millions internally displaced people. Food assistance is also required in Madagascar following a reduced harvest in several southern districts and general economic disruption by the recent political crisis. The sub-region's aggregate cereal import requirement for marketing year 2002/03 is estimated at 7.2 million tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, leaving 1.6 million tonnes to be covered by food aid.

In eastern Africa, the main season cereal harvests have either been completed or are underway and the secondary season crops to be harvested in the coming months are developing under mixed conditions. The region's aggregate cereal production in 2002/03 is expected to decline compared to last year, mainly due to drought.

In Eritrea, following drought during the “short rains” season earlier in the year and erratic and poorly distributed rains during the “long rains” season, the 2002 cereal crop is estimated at about 74 000 tonnes, the lowest level since the country's independence in 1993. In Ethiopia, in addition to the near-total failure of the secondary “belg” season due to drought, erratic rains and pests have severely affected yields of the 2002 main season cereal crops. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just returned from the country and a report on the outcome of the 2002 “Meher” production and estimate of food assistance requirements in 2003 will be issued shortly. In Kenya, recent favourable rainfall in several previously drought-affected pastoral areas improved overall food supply prospects. However, the 2002 long rains maize crop is estimated at a lower level of about 1.89 million tonnes compared to 2.32 million tonnes in 2001. In Sudan, prospects for the 2002 main crops are generally unfavourable. A recent FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to southern Sudan indicated a larger deficit in cereal production compared to last year due to delayed and erratic rainfall and population displacement following recent escalation of the long-running conflict. In central and northern Sudan, harvesting of the 2002 main season cereal crops has just started. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission has just returned from the country and a report is to be issued shortly. In Uganda, delayed onset of the secondary season rains coupled with a serious escalation of the conflict in the north has severely affected the food supply situation. Crop failure in the north-eastern region of Karamoja due to long dry spells during the recently concluded single cropping season of the region has also aggravated the food difficulties. By contrast in Somalia, the recently harvested main “gu” season cereal crop in the south is estimated at about 260 000 tonnes (100 000 tonnes of sorghum and 160 000 tonnes of maize), more than double the poor gu crop in 2001. In Tanzania, planting of the 2002/03 short season “vuli” crops in the bi-modal northern areas is underway. The 2002 total cereal production (maize, rice, wheat, sorghum and millet) at 4.3 million tonnes is about 10 percent above last year's harvest due to more favourable rains. Similarly, production of non-cereal crops (pulses, potatoes, cassava and plantains) is reported to be good.

As a result of the anticipated decline in the sub-region's aggregate 2002 cereal production, imports in 2002/03 are expected to increase substantially to 3.5 million tonnes, about 13 percent above the previous year. Commercial imports are estimated at 2.9 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at some 0.6 million tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS up to early December amount to 115 000 tonnes, with 27 000 tonnes delivered so far.

In western Africa, a series of joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions in October to the nine CILSS member countries estimated the 2002 aggregate cereal production at 11.3 million tonnes, 3 percent below 2001 but 11 percent above the average of the last five years. Below-average production is estimated for Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau and Mauritania, while it is average in Chad, the Gambia, Mali and Senegal. Above average production is estimated for Burkina Faso and Niger. These estimates should be viewed as preliminary, as the national surveys on which they are based were generally carried out before the end of the harvest and include forecasts for flood recession and off-season crops yet to be planted.

Despite above-average to record crops in most Sahel countries in 2001, access to food has been difficult for some sections of the population, due to a sharp rise in cereal prices, notably millet prices in most markets. The rural populations were the most affected as they depend mostly on millet, sorghum and maize. Although national cereal deficits for the 2002/03 marketing year (November/October) are anticipated to be covered by commercial rice and wheat imports, prices of local cereals are likely to stay high, given the reduced harvests, notably in Cape Verde, The Gambia, Mauritania and Senegal.

In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, 2002 total cereal production estimates are not yet available. Harvest prospects are generally favourable in Benin, Nigeria and Togo but are less favourable in Ghana, following below normal rains in September and October. Rice production should increase in Sierra Leone while it will decrease in Liberia following renewed civil strife. In Côte d'Ivoire, a reduction in rice and other cereal production is forecast as a result of unfavourable weather and the outbreak of civil strife that forced many farmers to leave their land and disrupted economic activities.

In central Africa, crop prospects are generally favourable in Cameroon. In the Central African Republic, harvest prospects are uncertain following erratic and below average rains in some regions, while a resurgence of fighting in Bangui between government and rebel troops in late October led to new population displacements.