SPECIAL REPORT FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SUDAN

24 December 2002

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
• 3. CEREAL PRODUCTION IN 2002
• 4. AGRICULTURAL SITUATION BY REGION
• 5. EMERGENCY SUPPORT MEASURES TO HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY
• 6. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan from 6 to 29 October 2002 and northern Sudan from 10 November to 1 December 2002 to assess the current season's cereal production, forecast wheat production from areas prepared for planting, and estimate cereal import requirements for the marketing year 2002/03 (November/October). The Mission visited 24 of the country's 26 states both in Government and rebel held areas.

The Mission received full co-operation of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC), which assigned senior staff to accompany the Mission. Pre-harvest data on area and yield were provided by the State Ministries of Agriculture and the various irrigation schemes, which the mission cross-checked during field visits and farmer and trader interviews. Discussions were also held with key informants from local government administrations, UN agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

In southern Sudan, rebel held areas (southern sector) were visited from Kenya and cropping data were provided by the Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Agency (SRRA) Agriculture Co-ordinator, with additional information from FAO Emergency Unit, WFP staff and USAID-FEWS reports. Location specific information was provided by Norwegian People's Aid (NPA), Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Save the Children UK (SC/UK), Action Contre la Faim (ACF), Concern, Oxfam UK, ANV, Tear-Fund and VSF-Holland. In Government held areas (northern sector), data were provided by State Ministries of Agriculture and HAC early warning unit, as well as FAO Emergency Unit field staff and NGOs including ACCORD, ACF, Oxfam-UK, ICRC, IIRA, Sudan Council of Churches, and Geraman Agro-Action.

For the country as a whole, the Mission found that the 2002 cropping season was characterised by a late onset of rains and poor rainfall distribution, especially during the first half of the season.

In Northern Sudan, the most important feature of the 2002 cropping season was the significant reduction in irrigated cereal area, particularly sorghum as compared to 2001. This reduction was largely an adjustment to a more average or normal level of irrigated area under cereals as opposed to the unusually large expansion in 2001 mainly in response to a Government inducement. As a result, irrigated area under cereals in 2002 declined by about 40 percent compared to 2001.

In Southern Sudan, civil conflict and insecurity have continued to hamper agricultural activities. Despite adequate and timely seed supplies for settled farmers and IDPs and a year relatively free from migratory pests, escalation of the civil war in several parts during the 2002 cropping season, cattle raiding and reprisals, and inter-ethnic conflicts have reduced cultivated area by nearly 10 percent, mostly in Bahr el Jebel and East Equatoria. This, coupled with late and erratic rains in most parts, has resulted in a decline of about 20 percent in cereal production as compared to last year.

Overall, the Mission forecasts 2002/03 total cereal production in Sudan at about 3.79 million tonnes, comprising 2.80 million tonnes of sorghum, 618 000 tonnes of millet, 232 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2003), and 138 000 tonnes of other cereals (mainly maize and rice). At this level, cereal production is nearly 30 percent below last year's good crop and about 15 percent below the average of the last five years. As a result, the cereal import requirement in the 2002/03 (November/October) marketing year is estimated at nearly 1.3 million tonnes of which about 1.1 million tonnes are anticipated to be imported commercially.

Increased export earnings from oil in the last five years and the recent resumption of livestock exports to countries in the Arabian Peninsula, mainly Saudi Arabia, following the lifting of an import ban on account of Rift Valley Fever, have all resulted in favourable outlook for the economy at both macro and micro-levels. Furthermore, the recent peace talks in Machakos (Kenya) to end the long running civil war in Sudan, including the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on 15 October 2002, augur well for resolving the conflict peacefully and this would boost agricultural and other economic activities in southern Sudan.

Livestock in northern Sudan are generally in good condition. Poor rangeland productivity in some western and eastern parts is expected to result in some feed shortages. However, the resumption of livestock exports has already firmed-up prices and tilted the terms of trade in favour of livestock producers.

While the overall food situation is relatively stable, regional and local deficits exist in several parts. Most zones in southern Sudan face serious food deficits mainly due to population displacement and poor harvests. The few expected cereal surpluses in the states of West Equatoria and Lakes will be unavailable in deficit areas, within and outside the States, due to market segmentation and the break down of normal trade routes and infrastructure. In northern Sudan, parts of greater Kordofan and Darfur and Red Sea State also suffer from successive poor harvests. Food aid needs in 2003 are estimated at 230 000 tonnes.

Furthermore, timely assistance is required to support the agricultural sector in the next cropping season that starts in April/May in the South and June/July in the North. The emergency support should include early provision of appropriate seeds and other agricultural inputs.

2. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Sudan has increasingly enjoyed favourable macroeconomic climate over the past five years afforded in large part by oil exports which rose from virtual insignificance in the mid-1990s to US$ 275.9 million in 1999, and then quadrupled to reach US$ 1.24 billion in the following year. The country has moved from a chronic trade deficit to a position of surplus, with an overall growth rate averaging 4.5 to 5 percent. Over the past year, inflation has fallen and stabilised at about 6 to 7 percent.

Agriculture is still the mainstay of the Sudanese economy in terms of its contribution to GDP (41 percent in 2001), and is, as the employer of more than two-thirds of the workforce, the main source of livelihood for the vast majority of the population. The sector's dominance in the share of export revenues has, however, been overtaken by oil since 1997. Traditional agricultural export commodities, mostly cotton and livestock, declined from their peak values in 1995/96 and 1997/98 respectively, and both have also been overtaken by sesame which has become Sudan's highest-value agricultural export, reaching a record value of US$ 150 million in 1999/2000. Favourable sesame prices in the current season are expected to stimulate expansion of the area planted. There is a move on the part of the Government to revive the production and export of gumarabic whose exports fell steadily from more than 45 000 tonnes in the 60s to less than 25 000 tonnes at present.

The total value of agricultural exports may be about to rise again, buoyed by increasing livestock exports following the lifting of an import ban previously imposed by Saudi Arabia and other major importers in the Middle East. Recent campaigns to expand the area under cotton in the major irrigation schemes may also boost agricultural exports.

The Strategic Commodity Reserve Authority, which was established in late 2000, has started to build a modest cereal reserve, mainly sorghum, with the principal aim of stabilising prices. However, limitations on storage capacity and the expense involved in maintaining such a stock may pause some difficulties

3. CEREAL PRODUCTION IN 2002

Cereals are the main staple crops of Sudan with sorghum providing about 60 percent of the total quantity of cereals consumed. Only in southern Sudan are other carbohydrate foodstuffs, particularly cassava and sweet potatoes, consumed in significant quantities. Sorghum and millet are grown throughout the country during the rainy season from April to October. During the winter months, from November to March, wheat is grown on the various irrigation schemes. Small, but locally significant, areas of maize (usually under mixed cropping) are grown under traditional hand-cultivation systems in riverine areas in the south using residual moisture left by receding floods. Small quantities of rice are grown under irrigation in some areas.

3.1 Main factors affecting production in 2002

3.1.1 Agricultural finance and credit

The Government of Sudan's capacity to invest in agriculture has risen substantially with increasing revenues from oil exports. This is reflected in the irrigated sector where special funds have been allocated for rehabilitation of irrigation systems. For instance, in Gezira irrigation scheme the authorities reported improved water management during this production season, and more funds had also been allocated for similar rehabilitation activities over the next three years.

There has been a major shift in the roles of irrigation schemes with respect to the supply of production inputs. As of the current production season, farmers are responsible for independently purchasing the main production inputs (especially fertilizers) with their own resources or through credit from banking institutions. This replaces the old system where these inputs were supplied through the schemes.

Bank credits are mainly used to finance production activities such as ploughing, weeding and harvesting. More than two-thirds of credit goes to irrigated agriculture, approximately one-quarter to mechanised rain-fed agriculture, and less than one-tenth to the traditional sector. About 60 percent of loans are in cash and 40 percent in kind. There are several banks (Agricultural Bank of Sudan, Omdurman Bank, Islamic Bank, Bank of Khartoum, Baraka, French Bank and Commercial Bank) that provide credit to agriculture at seemingly reasonable costs. The reality, however, is that credit is limited to irrigated agriculture and commercial mechanized rainfed farms of more than 500 feddan (over 200 hectares). Small-scale producers in the traditional rainfed sector are totally left out. There is anecdotal evidence suggesting that many farmers who are eligible for institutional credit do not take it, and the main reason for this appears to be a general fear of losing their assets in case of default on repayment. Additional costs to transport fertilizers and other inputs from locations of purchase to the farms are an additional disincentive. Consequently, production this year has to some extent been undermined by the reduced use of fertilizers and other inputs under the new financing arrangement.

Favourable developments in the current production season include the supply of seeds of high-yielding sorghum varieties to small-scale farmers free of charge to encourage adoption and raise production. Fuel was also widely available to the mechanised farming sector.

3.1.2 Rainfall

Annual rainfall in Sudan ranges from almost zero in the north to 1 800 mm in the southern state of Western Equatoria. In 2002 the rains started late over most of the country and many areas experienced false starts to the season and subsequent poor rainfall distribution which often necessitated re-plantings, especially in the drier areas of the north. The end of the season was rather more variable, with rainfall stopping prematurely in some areas but continuing satisfactorily in others. Throughout the country, localised rainfall variation within comparatively small geographical areas appears to have been greater this year than usual.

This year's generally poor rainfall throughout the Horn of Africa has also led to low water levels in the River Nile and its various tributaries. In some chronically drought-susceptible areas of the west (parts of Kordofan and Darfur), the rains continued into October with the result that pasture there was relatively good by the end of the season, compensating to some extent for poor crop production.

In the southern Sudan, annual rainfall increases from north to south and from east to west. During 2002, this basic pattern prevailed, but a generally late start of rainfall and dry periods of up to three weeks were reported during June and, less frequently, during July. Rainfall generally became more regular during August and September, and continued into October. However, total rainfall for the season was well below the average everywhere and especially in Aweil and Upper Nile State

3.1.3 Area planted

The current cropping season has seen a significant reduction, about 40 percent overall, in the area under irrigated sorghum compared with 2001. This was partly the result of poorer rainfall, but mostly an adjustment to the long-term average from the unusually increased area under irrigation for cereals in 2001 in response to Government inducement. This may therefore be regarded as a rational reversion to the Ministry of Agriculture's stated policy of increasing productivity rather than expanding area. The huge reduction this year in irrigated sorghum area in Northern State (from 16 000 hectares to less than 500) was the direct result of the unusually low flood levels on the River Nile. The small area of rice in the north - mostly near Kosti - shrank slightly this year to about 7 000 hectares from more than 8 000 hectares last year as a result of reduced flooding.

Total areas under both mechanised and traditional rainfed production in 2002 were similar to those of 2001. However, because of the late arrival of the rains and their frequently early cessation, rather more cultivated area gave either no economic yield or no yield at all than was the case last year. The total areas, however, mask large localised differences. For instance, Malakal reported a reduced area of mechanised production, whereas Renk reported an expansion, again reflecting the local variations in rainfall this year.

3.1.4 Agricultural inputs

The principal users of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and improved seed in Sudan are the farmers in the irrigated sector. Use of fertilizers is reported to have declined this year as a result of both increased (unsubsidised) prices and a policy change concerning the purchase and distribution of fertilizer through the scheme management bodies. Fertilizer - predominantly urea - used to be provided at favourable rates to registered farmers through the corporations managing the schemes. The corporations have now withdrawn this service, with the result that farmers must find and negotiate their own credit and identify suppliers if they wish to purchase fertilizer. This extra logistical burden on farmers, and, in many cases, their lack of conviction concerning the benefits of fertilizer use, has contributed to the reduced use of fertilizer that is evident this year. In contrast, the use of improved seed is reported to have increased this year, with many scheme corporations providing their farmers with seed either free or at cost. Improved sorghum varieties used this year include 'Wad Ahmed', 'Gadam Hamam', 'Arfa Gadamek', while the premium-priced 'Tabet' continues to be widely planted. The main wheat varieties being used this year are 'Wadi Nil', 'Nilein', 'Dibera', 'Shamsix' (all 120 days) and 'Kundur' (100 days). The traditional sector has benefited to some extent from seed distributions through various NGOs and UN agencies including FAO.

Fuel costs (which rose last year with the removal of subsidies) continue to act as a disincentive to improved cultivation and planting in the mechanised sector, although fuel availability was good this year. The mechanised sector is also experiencing an unchecked decline in numbers of operational tractors and in the level of maintenance of those tractors and other implements which are still used.

3.1.5 Weeds, pests and diseases

Levels of crop pests and diseases have been relatively low during 2002, with several state ministries carrying out extensive control campaigns during the year. For instance, Gedaref mounted a programme of aerial spraying to control birds and tree locusts over areas of 32 000 and 3 500 hectares respectively.

Striga contributes to production losses in sorghum and millet especially in the drier, less fertile areas of the west of the country. However, it is also reported to be becoming more troublesome in Government-held areas of the south where shifting cultivation has been abandoned as a result of land pressure and cropping intensity has increased with a concomitant loss of soil fertility. In White Nile State, the area of millet in the mechanised sector has been increased in the belief that it is less susceptible to striga-related yield reduction than sorghum. Although locally serious, the incidence of Striga countrywide this year can be regarded as no more than moderate. At Toker spate irrigation scheme, the mesquite tree continues to colonise cultivable land. It is now estimated that almost 25 percent of the scheme's 16 500 hectares has been lost to the tree.

Low flood levels along the River Nile in Northern State have contributed to increased weed infestation in winter vegetable crops. Weeds which would otherwise have germinated following flooding and then been removed during cultivation have this year germinated with the crop following irrigation. Grasshoppers and tree locusts appear to have been, overall, the most troublesome pests this year. In Gedaref, despite the state's control campaign mentioned above, sorghum seedlings were attacked by grasshoppers, often necessitating several re-plantings. Suki scheme in Sennar State also suffered losses from grasshoppers, as did several parts of Kordofan and Darfur. Termites were a problem in some of the drier areas of the country where they attacked both seedlings and growing plants. Sorghum midge and millet head-worm were widely reported, but incidence levels were generally not serious.

Last year's watermelon crop was devastated in many areas by the watermelon bug. This year's very low incidence of the pest is assumed by some state agriculture ministries to be a secondary benefit of their locust and grasshopper control campaigns. In other states the pest was specifically targeted, using mechanical means; in North Kordofan, for instance, more than 280 tonnes of watermelon bugs were reported to have been collected manually in a WFP-sponsored food-for-work programme. Grain losses to birds (especially to Quelea quelea, which is classified as a national pest) have been reported in various localities in the north, but they have been minor compared with other years. This is at least partly the result of the continuing control measures being taken by state authorities. At the beginning of December there is still the possibility of losses to birds, but these are not expected to be serious this year. In the south, security concerns preclude control by aerial spraying, and late-maturing sorghum varieties in the eastern parts of Upper Nile State are particularly vulnerable to attack.

Covered smut is common in both sorghum and millet, its incidence being highest in the traditional sector where untreated seed is used. Long smut was also evident on millet in many areas. Downy mildew was apparent on some millet, but generally not at serious levels. In the south, groundnut continues to be affected by rosette virus and leafspot, and cassava by mosaic virus, but levels of both diseases appear to be normal.

3.2 Cereal production forecast

Total national cereal production for Sudan in 2002/03 is forecast at 3.79 million tonnes, comprising 2.80 million tonnes of sorghum, 618 000 tonnes of millet, 232 000 tonnes of wheat, 107 000 tonnes of maize and 31 000 tonnes of rice. Total cereal production will be about 30 percent below that of last year and 15 percent below the average for the preceding five years. Production figures by state for 2002/03, and comparisons with those for 2001/02, are given in Table 1. Cereal areas, yields and production by region for the last five years are given in Table 2.

3.3 Other crops

This year a very significant expansion in the area under watermelon, especially in Kordofan and Darfur and the very low incidence of watermelon bug has resulted in a large increase in production. Near urban centres, varieties are usually grown for their fruit, while in more remote areas seed varieties are generally preferred. Both fruits and seed represent cash crops, but the plant has the added advantage of being a survival crop under adverse conditions; it can provide a limited amount of clean water and carbohydrate for human consumption, and it can be used as a source of fodder for livestock. Watermelon is comparatively easy to grow and is often inter-cropped. Groundnut areas in the north are generally down on those of last year, but yields are satisfactory at about 650 kg (unshelled) per hectare. In the south, where groundnut is often very important in the household economy, yields are poorer than they were last year. Sesame prices were low following very good production in 2001, with the result that farmers reduced their sesame area in 2002. With reduced production, prices have risen again. This year's crop is considered to be good, with yields of up to 300 kg per hectare in some areas such as West Darfur. Karkadi (roselle, Hibiscus sabdariffa) has also performed well this year, with an expansion of area in many places; the market for the crop is good. In the south, cassava yields are expected to be in the region of 15 - 25 tonnes fresh weight per hectare.

3.4 Livestock

At the end of November 2002, livestock condition was average to good throughout the country. In the south, the Rinderpest Campaign appears to have been successful, and vaccination has now been phased out except in a few areas of Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria. Pasture is plentiful in the south, and in the west it is generally good, especially in those parts where the rains continued into October In such areas, pastoralists estimate that the supply of fodder should be sufficient until April or May 2003. However, those parts of the west where the rains stopped early are already grazed down, as are many pastoral areas of the east. Livestock water supplies follow a similar pattern, with hafirs already dry in some areas but still almost full where there was good continuation of rain. Livestock prices have remained more competitive with those of grain than has been the case in recent years. This is partly due to the lifting, at the beginning of 2002, of the ban imposed by Gulf states (most importantly Saudi Arabia) on the importation of livestock from Sudan and other countries in the Horn of Africa on account of Rift Valley fever.

Table 1. Sudan: Cereal production forecast for 2002/03 and estimates of 2001/02 (`000 tonnes)

* The cereal Grand total includes maize, mainly produced in southern Sudan and small amounts of rice.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Mission forecast.

Table 2. Sudan: Area, yield and production forecast by crop and region for 2002/03, compared with previous years

* Includes maize, mainly produced in southern Sudan, and small amounts of rice.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Mission forecast.

4. AGRICULTURAL SITUATION BY REGION

4.1 Northern Region (Northern and Nile)

The population of Northern Region, which comprises Northern and Nile States, is predominantly settled along the banks of the River Nile. Cereal production is mainly based on irrigation, with maize and sorghum being produced in the summer and wheat being grown during the winter months. Summer cereals are grown on pumped irrigation schemes along the Nile as well as on low-lying flood plains during the "demira" season (August to October). Sorghum in this region is produced mainly as a cash or fodder crop, the preferred staple being wheat. By virtue of its comparatively cool winters and its access to irrigation, Northern Region is the country's main wheat producer, with irrigation being provided by pumps. Large areas of broad bean and vegetables are also grown during the winter, and a significant amount of alfalfa is produced throughout the year.

This year, the level of the Nile during the summer cropping season was reported to be lower than it had been for about 100 years. Consequently the area of summer cropping was greatly reduced and winter cropping may be adversely affected too. In Northern State, for example, 18 000 hectares of sorghum and 16 000 hectares of maize were planned, but only 450 and 375 were realised.

Sowing of wheat started on 20 November in Northern State and a few days later in Nile State. Northern planned 60 000 hectares this year, and Nile planned 40 000, both figures representing an increase on last year. However, it would appear that, given this year's low water levels in both the Nile and the Atbara, these areas will not be achieved. This year, the latter half of November was warmer than in the previous two years, suggesting that the cool winter may be shorter than usual. If this is so, the crop may be subjected to unfavourably high temperatures at the time of flowering, with a consequent reduction in yield.

Total cereal production for the region in 2002/03 is expected to be about half that recorded for 2001/02. Most of this reduction is attributable to the poor figures for sorghum, production of which is down by more than 70 percent on last year.

The area under broad beans is smaller this year than last, largely as a result of difficulties in the timely procurement of credit. 30 000 hectares were planned, but by 15 November only 18 000 had been achieved. Further planting then ceased as crops planted after that date are progressively susceptible to attack by whitefly and thrips.

4.2 Central Region (Gezira, Sennar, Damazin, Blue Nile, White Nile)

Central Region is the most important grain-producing area of the country, with about half of its production coming from Gezira State. This year the region's total production is expected to be less than two-thirds of last year's, largely as a result of a significant reduction in the mechanised farming area and the area under irrigation. For instance, on the Gezira Scheme the area under irrigated sorghum was less than 60 percent of last year's area; some compensation, however, is expected with a slight increase in the area under wheat. In Sennar, mechanised sorghum production, which last year covered more than 450 000 hectares, accounted for only 170 000, a reduction of almost 65 percent. Effective rains did not start until mid-July in Sennar, Blue Nile and White Nile. This poor start to the season was compounded in Sennar by dry spells in September and in Blue Nile by early cessation of rainfall in October. In White Nile, however, the rains continued satisfactorily into October in many areas. In most of Gezira, effective rains started even later than elsewhere in the region, in August.

On the Gezira Scheme, more money has been invested this year in cleaning irrigation canals, with the result that water management has improved. With regard to sorghum, there was in increase in the use of improved varieties, which accounted for about 90 percent of the crop; fertilizer use was also fairly high (in contrast to some other schemes), with the result that yields, at about 2.4 tonnes per hectare, showed some improvement on last year. However, with the reduction in cropped area, production is forecast to be down to about 65 percent of last year's total.

Pasture condition is generally below average in the east of the region this year, but in White Nile it is good, reflecting the continuation of rains in that state into October. Likewise, livestock water supplies are better in the west of the region than they are in the east.

4.3 Eastern Region (Gedaref, Kassala, Red Sea)

Eastern Region includes one major irrigation scheme (New Halfa), one rather smaller one at Kassala, 45percent of another (Rahad), two spate irrigation schemes (Gash in Kassala State and Tokar in Red Sea State), and the largest rainfed mechanised farming area in the country.

The irrigated areas of summer crops at New Halfa, Kassala and Rahad were all smaller this year than last. At New Halfa there is expected to be a major reduction of the area under wheat (from 10 000 hectares in 2001/02 down to 2 000 hectares this year) as a result of the low levels of water in the Khashm el Girba dam on the Atbara River. In addition to wheat, about 2 500 hectares of sunflower are planned. The area under spate irrigation planted to sorghum at Tokar also shrank relative to last year, but there was a larger area planted to millet. Despite the satisfactory floods received at Tokar, the advance of the mesquite tree into cultivable areas imposes an increasing constraint on cropping. At Gash, however, the spate-irrigated area expanded as a result of a good first flush of the Gash River during August.

Fertilizer use was generally down on last year's levels, especially at New Halfa where it was estimated that less than half of last year's amount was applied. However, there appears to have been more widespread use of improved varieties and certified seed on the irrigation schemes.

The rainfed mechanised area under sorghum in Gedaref remained similar to that of last year, as did sorghum yields. Despite its very low average yield of just over 300 kg per hectare, Gedaref is one of the country's main sorghum-producing areas (superseded only by Gezira), and satisfactory production from there is nationally important. Grasshoppers were troublesome at Gedaref and Kassala, especially at the seedling and milky stages, despite an extensive (32 000 hectares) aerial spraying campaign to control them. The area under mechanised farming at Kassala increased this year, but sorghum yields, at about 450 kg per hectare, were substantially lower than last year.

In the north of the region, in Red Sea State, winter rains along the littoral have started, but these are notoriously unreliable and may, as has frequently been the case in recent years, be insufficient for satisfactory crop production. Further inland, the Red Sea Hills are an area of chronically low crop production, with only about one year in five producing a minimally acceptable crop. 2002 is the fourth consecutive year of poor rainfall, with a late start to the season and low total precipitation.

Total cereal production for Eastern Region this year is forecast at 86 percent of that for 2001/02, which, considering the generally poorer rainfall this year is very acceptable.

The condition of pasture in the region is poor to average. Hafir levels vary widely, with some quite full and others already dry.

4.4 Kordofan (North, South and West)

Agricultural production in North and West Kordofan is predominantly traditional, while South Kordofan's production is mainly from the rainfed mechanised sector. Production was very variable this year in Kordofan, with many southern areas (the extreme south and south-east of North Kordofan, much of South Kordofan, and the southern half of West Kordofan) having a relatively good agricultural season, though not always as good as last year. In the more favoured areas, there was a reasonably timely start to the rains, which often continued, with occasional but relatively harmless breaks, into October. Further north, however, the rains came late, only to be followed by prolonged dry spells in August and September. For example, Sodiri, in North Kordofan, reported only four light showers - one per month from June to September.

Security in South Kordofan has improved over the last twelve months, and this contributed to a slight increase in the area planted to sorghum in the mechanised sector, in spite of a shortage of tractors. This increased area was further supplemented by about 7 000 hectares which were cultivated for households by the National Petroleum Company on land that would normally be cultivated traditionally. However, the poorer rains of this year led to a higher proportion of sown land not being harvested (25 percent), lower yields, and substantially lower production than last year. Traditional crop production in the south of West Kordofan has done better this year with an expansion of area for sorghum and increased yields for both sorghum and millet. Although the northern part of the state was less fortunate with regard to rainfall, the state as a whole is expected to produce about 90 percent more grain than it did last year. Where there was a poor start to the rains, as in many parts of North Kordofan, farmers were obliged to replant frequently. With poor rainfall continuing throughout the season, many farmers in the worst-affected areas reported that they had harvested less than they had sown.

Grain prices are high in the drier parts of Kordofan, reflecting the poor production year in those areas. In North Kordofan, sorghum and millet were selling for up to 4 500 SD and 6 500 SD respectively per 90 kg bag during November. There has been a very large increase in the area under watermelon this year in Kordofan, especially in the north, and the crop has not been struck, as it was last year, by the watermelon bug. Watermelon planting density is usually very low, with average productivity between 1 000 and 2 000 fruits per hectare. Apart from its financial benefits, the plant is a useful survival crop providing clean water for human consumption and fodder for livestock. The area of karkadi is said to have increased. Sesame and groundnut yielded well on some of the lighter soils of South Kordofan where rainfall was adequate, and an increase in traditional area planted to sesame was reported.

Pasture condition reflects the differences in rainfall over the region, ranging from very good in the south to very poor in the north, where pastoralists have started to migrate earlier than usual and to sell more stock than they would normally sell at this time of the year.

4.5 Darfur (North, South and West)

Agriculture in all three states of Darfur is overwhelmingly in the traditional sector. Like Kordofan, Darfur this year has seen marked differences in production, with some limited areas, such as the south of South Darfur, recording their best results since 1985 with excellen tyields of millet, sorghum and groundnuts. Elsewhere, however, production was often very low, and in many places, such as in some of the northern parts of South Darfur, partial crop failure was widely reported.

In North Darfur there was a sporadic start to the rains, but many areas received higher total rainfall than they did in 2001. Much of the state experienced a dry spell during August, with some parts experiencing excessively drying winds which burnt up seedlings, but rains resumed and continued in many places into October. In the north of South Darfur, effective rainfall did not start until July, and this was followed by a dry spell in August. In contrast, the south of the state received its first rains in May and rainfall then continued with good distribution until October. Total seasonal rainfall of up to 750 mm was reported at some stations in this area. A similar but less pronounced pattern was evident in West Darfur where rains arrived slightly late in the north but were more timely in the south. Dry spells in August and September set crop production back in the north of the state. In general, areas harvested this year were similar to those of last year, with South Darfur even showing a slight increase. Of the other two states, West Darfur exhibited the larger reduction in area harvested compared with last year.

In those parts of the region where rainfall was poor, farmers frequently had to replant and then harvested only part of what they had sown. For instance, in North Darfur it was estimated that only 52 percent of the land sown to sorghum and 56 percent of the land sown to millet was harvested. Nevertheless, as a reflection of this year's rainfall variability, there were some areas in North Darfur, such as Kabkabiya province, where production was good. Agricultural production is constrained by continuing conflict in the highly productive Jebel Mara area. As in Kordofan, there has been a very substantial increase in the area under watermelon this year, especially in North Darfur. Where rainfall was moderate to good, especially on the lighter soils, groundnuts did well.

Livestock condition is generally good throughout the region, but there is wide variation in the state of pasture. In those areas where rainfall continued into October it is better than usual, but in other areas where the rains stopped early it had already been grazed down by the end of November. Water for livestock shows a similar pattern, ranging from very adequate provision in the more favoured areas to almost dry wells in those areas that received poor rains.

4.6 Southern Sudan

Southern Sudan, with an area of 640 000 km² and a population of 6.5 million people, has been in a state of continuous conflict since 1983. Its diverse resources traditionally support agro-pastoralist systems which include farming, livestock production, fishing, hunting, gathering, charcoal-making and trading in various commodities, according to location-specific agro-ecology and household demographics. Over the past twenty years, such complex systems have been seriously disrupted as a result of the major conflicts associated with the civil war. Conscription for the armed forces, terror and scorched-earth tactics, looting, cattle-raiding, inter-factional and inter-tribal clashes and the unconstrained actions of marauding groups has further exacerbated the situation. As a result, the integrity of the region has been shattered. The outcome is a series of Government-controlled townships with a limited hegemony, accessible for the most part only by air or by protected river and rail convoys located in a matrix of rebel-held countryside.

Administratively, three distinct zones exist, encompassing GOS-, SPLA- and SSLA-held areas. Positive developments emanating from the temporarily stalled Machakos peace talks, such as the 15^th October Memorandum of Understanding, bode well for a continuing cease-fire between the GOS and rebel protagonists. These have already led to the emergence of an agreement on 25 October 2002 (Nairobi) between GOS, SPLM/A and UN/OLS, on procedures to allow opportunities for coordination and improved understanding of activities.

Despite these positive developments, the overall socio-economic situation remains as described in previous years, with most communities depending on humanitarian aid for food security. The virtual absence of safe communications outside the GOS townships restricts large-scale commercial interchange between agro-ecological zones. Whereas the Sudanese Dinar is the currency in the GOS towns, a range of currencies pertain elsewhere, with exchange rates seemingly unconnected to other realities. Nevertheless, trade routes fostered by some road improvement may be discerned between a) Uganda-Western Equatoria and Lakes; b) Northern Bahr el Ghazal and the north of Sudan; and c) Jonglei -Upper Nile and Ethiopia. However, with the exception of Farmers' Associations in Western Equatoria, the bulk of transactions along these routes are opportunistic, and individual actions are easily disrupted by insecurity and lawlessness.

The agro-ecology of the south provides a growing season varying from 130-150 days per annum in the north to 280-300 days in the south-west. Consequently, agricultural performance varies considerably from place to place and from year to year, ranging from the regular possibility of at least two consecutive harvests from the same area in the so-called "Green Belt" located from Tambura to Yei, to crop failures in the marginal areas of Eastern Equatoria and Bahr el Ghazal.

Agricultural production is, for the most, part based on some 900 000 small, hand-cultivated units presently farmed by women-headed households belonging to larger family aggregations reflecting the polygamous nature of most communities. In the southern sector, animal traction is presently being re-introduced on a small-scale by FAO and a new generation of NGO-based extension agents in Lakes and Bahr el Ghazal and is making some headway. Large-scale tractorized farming is restricted to areas close to GOS-held towns. However, it is only in the Upper Nile State district of Renk that tractor-farming is conducted at a level equivalent to the commercial farms of South Kordofan, Gedaref, Kassala and Sim-Sim. This reflects the better security for investment in Renk and a better and constant access to inputs and markets. Regarding cereals, in all smallholder systems farmers grow a wide range of sorghum landraces with minor crops of maize, pearl millet, finger millet and rice according to location. Other crops grown include, in the northern sector of Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS), groundnuts which make a significant contribution to the household food economy, beans, sesame, pumpkins and tobacco. In the south and central areas, cassava is the most important non-cereal crop, providing half or more of the carbohydrate ration. Minor crops of sweet potatoes, yams, rice, coffee, mangoes, papayas and teak are also grown for home and some localized commercial use. As a result of such variations and variable access to wild foods and animal products, according to WFP food economy estimates, annual cereal use of the farming population ranges from 60 kg to 110 kg per caput per annum according to location.

4.6.1 Cereal production, 2002

The disruption of the civil war has led, over the past 20 years, to a complete breakdown of the official gathering of agriculture statistics in all but limited areas surrounding GOS towns. Even here, the lack of equipment, simple materials and transport, compounded by insecurity and land access difficulties, undermines any intention of serious information collection. In the rebel-held areas, SRRA and RASS district offices are equally without the most basic supplies, precluding any reliable information gathering and analysis. Further, at field level, the volunteer workers lack the practical numeracy and experience necessary for objective assessment. Information gathering is, therefore, based on verbal exchanges between farmers and MOA staff in GOS areas, and SRRA-RASS agricultural extension agents and farmers elsewhere.

Against this background, the Mission visited a total of seventeen locations, conducted more than 50 case studies/key informant interviews. Aerial observations from altitudes of less than 2 000 feet were possible during the Mission's movement from location to location. This added a new dimension to the assessment, placing case studies of single farms into the general context of the areas concerned. Such activities enabled the Mission to obtain an independent picture of the agricultural production this year.

Cereal production this year from the traditional sector is expected to be some 20 percent lower than last year's comparatively good harvest and slightly lower than the average for the past 4 years. This is mostly due to the reduced quantity and unhelpful distribution of rainfall in Bahr el Ghazal and Upper Nile. The failure of the rice harvest in Aweil and reduced production of rice in Wau is a severe setback to the communities involved, and demonstrates the vulnerability of the systems practised, despite the close proximity of rivers and streams.

Preliminary estimates indicate a mixed cereal harvest of 422 000 tonnes of which some 75 percent is sorghum. The earlier Table 4 provides a breakdown of production by locality based on disaggregated population statistics adjusted by this year's factors for area and yield. Table 6 presents the time series of area and production over the past 5 years. It shows that production is less than the estimated average.

4.6.2 Area estimates

Given the data situation noted above, Mission area estimates have, for the last four years, been compiled from Mission-audited State Ministry returns for the Northern sector, added to Southern sector area estimates calculated from best-bet estimates of numbers of households farming, multiplied by estimated area farmed per household, adjusted for seasonal changes in areas cropped to cereals, as observed by or reported to the Mission teams. This year's estimates are again based on the same system. Population estimates used are from UNICEF's Multi-indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Southern sector, supplemented by State MOA information from Juba, Renk, Bentiu, Raja, Aweil and Wau and adjusted by UNFPA regional population increases for 2002/2003.

Table 3 indicates the first stages of the calculation resulting in total population and total households by location. Household totals have been estimated using the Southern sector norm of 6 persons per household unit (defined as a group of people eating together and living under the same roof).

Table 3. Population and Household Estimates in Southern Sudan, 2002/03

Source: MICS - Multi-indicator Cluster Survey and Government of Sudan

UNFPA population growth rates: Upper Nile 0.93percent, Bar el Ghazal 2.37percent, Equatoria 1.01percent. Based on 6 members per unit household.

The second stage of the calculation resulting in cereal area, which is considered to be 70 percent sorghum is shown in Table 4, is calculated based on Mission and local estimates (MOA, SRRA) of the percentage of households actually farming and are farmed by households in the areas visited or observed during aerial transects.

Table 4. Cereal Area and Production Estimates in Southern Sudan in 2002/03