EU (2 June)
Latest information continues to point to a reduction in wheat output in 2003 but similar outputs to the previous year for most of the coarse grains. However, much will still depend on the weather in the coming weeks. The arrival of some significant rains across northern countries in May benefited crops after previously dry conditions. FAO maintains its previous forecast for the EU aggregate wheat output at about 103 million tonnes, some 1 million tonnes less than the 2002 harvest. While a smaller harvested area this year is fairly sure, given significant planting reductions in France and Germany in particular, the two biggest producers, and reports of significant winter frost damage in several northern parts, the prospects for yields remain quite uncertain. The aggregate coarse grain crop in the EU is forecast at almost 107 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year. The 2003 paddy season is getting underway in the EU rice producers. An overall area expansion is tentatively forecast, mostly on account of larger anticipated plantings in Italy. Production is forecast to recover in those member states affected by drought last year, namely France Portugal and Spain. Accordingly, aggregate output for the EU is currently forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, up 2.4 percent from 2002.