MEXICO (30 May)
Harvesting of the 2003 irrigated wheat crop in the large producing northwestern areas is underway. Output is forecast at a slightly less than 3 million tonnes which compares to the past 5-year average of 3.3 million tonnes. The decline is principally due to inadequate water supplies in the main producing states of Sinaloa and Sonora, which resulted in slightly below-average plantings in these states and considerably lower than normal yields. By contrast, normal to abundant rains are benefiting planting of the important spring/summer maize crop, currently underway and for harvesting from October through December, in the main producing states of Jalisco, México, Michoacán, Chiapas and Puebla. As an incentive to producers, it is reported that the small industry has been encouraged by the government in some states to enter into forward contract purchases. Harvesting of the 2002/03 fall/winter maize crop (planted from October through February) is underway in the main producing states of Sinaloa, Sonora and Chihuaha. The outlook is poor since 40 per cent of the crop is irrigated and water reservoir levels were extremely low at planting. Nevertheless, it is expected that the decrease in output from the 2002/03 fall/winter maize crop will be offset by the anticipated good outturns from the 2003 spring/summer crop. Overall, an average maize output of some 19 million tonnes in 2003 is tentatively forecast. Planting of the 2003 sorghum crop, for harvesting in the fall, is also underway in the main producing west central states of Guanajato, Jalisco and Michoacán. The bulk of the fall harvest is produced in these states. Plantings are forecast to decrease slightly from the past five-year average, largely as a result of farmers’ decision to shift their sorghum plantings to maize as a more profitable crop. The other main, and the largest sorghum producing state in the country, is Tamaulipas, in the northeast, where sowing takes place between February and March for harvesting early in the summer. Water availability is reported adequate and an increase in production is anticipated from 2002. However, the increase in production in Tamaulipas will not likely compensate for the anticipated decline in output from the west central states, and a slightly below average sorghum aggregate output in 2003 is tentatively forecast.