UKRAINE (28 May)
Severely cold winter, inadequate snow cover and a rather cold and late spring have significantly compromised this year’s cereal harvest. Nearly 3.7 million hectares of winter cereals were lost to frost last winter. Aggregate cereal harvest is now optimistically estimated at just over 29 million tonnes compared with 36 million tonnes last year. FAO estimates aggregate wheat harvest at about 10.5 million tonnes, which is more than 46 percent down on last year’s harvest. In contrast barley harvest estimated at 11.3 million tonnes is higher than last year’s harvest by about one million tonnes. This is in view of the resilience of barley to a relatively cold spring and larger areas planted with spring barley. Maize harvest forecast at about 4.2 million tonnes is up by more than 1.1 million tonnes.
Aggregate cereal export during the 2003/04 marketing year is forecast at about 6.6 million tonnes, which is only 54 percent of the export during the marketing year coming to an end. Wheat exports are estimated at 2.5 million tonnes during the ensuing marketing year compared with an estimated 8 million tonnes during the 2002/03 marketing year.