SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION

TO ZIMBABWE

19 June 2003

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING1
• 3. Food production in 2002/03
• 4. Production Situation By Province
• 5. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE, 2003/04 (APRIL/MARCH)
• 6. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATES OF EMERGENCY CEREAL REQUIREMENTS

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

Zimbabwe was hit by an erratic rainfall pattern during 2002/03 cereal growing season, following on the heels of a severe drought and the collapse of cereal production the previous year. It is against this backdrop that an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 21 April to 10 May 2003 to estimate the 2002/03 production of the main cereals and pulse crops, forecast the 2003/04 winter crop production, review the overall food situation and determine the food import requirement, including food assistance needs, for the next 12 months.

In Harare, the Mission held meetings with the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture and Rural Development (MLARR), UNDP Resident Coordinator and other UNDP officials, FAO sub-Regional Representative and other FAO officials, WFP Country Director a.i. and other WFP officials, World Bank, Embassy of Japan, FEWSNet, Zimbabwe Meteorological Department, Commercial Farmers Union (CFU), Zimbabwe Indigenous Commercial Farmers Union (ICFU), Farm Community Trust of Zimbabwe, Millers Association of Zimbabwe, SADC, Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZIMVAC), Zimbabwe AIDS Network, fertilizer and agricultural input supply companies, and international and national NGOs. The Mission also consulted remote sensing data on rainfall, vegetation indices and various interim assessment reports.

During field visits the Mission was accompanied by observers from EU, SADC, FEWSNet and UNDP/RRU. It was assisted by senior specialists from MLARR, two FAO staff members from the country and several staff members from WFP country and field offices. The Mission, split into three teams, was able to visit 24 districts across all eight provinces. Discussions were held with provincial and district level government officials, particularly from Agricultural Research and Extension Service, farmers, labourers, traders and WFP’s implementing partners and other NGOs. Market surveys were conducted and livestock condition observed and investigated enroute and in the districts visited. Field assessments were made regarding household food security, vulnerability, coping mechanism and social welfare programmes. The crop production and vulnerability situation obtaining this year was compared with the previous years to get a relative historical perspective. Data and information received from secondary sources were reviewed against data, information and insights obtained during field visits in arriving at the estimates made by the Mission.

The 2002/03 agricultural season was characterized by alternating rainfall and dry spells. Farmers had to replant on many occasions as previous plantings were largely destroyed by spells of drought. In many places two or three plantings were undertaken, the last having been reasonably successful. In other areas, all the plantings were virtual write-offs. Rather heavy rainfall received in most parts of the country in late February-early March 2003 in the wake of Cyclone Japhet was generally helpful in improving grazing conditions and water availability for livestock.

The area planted to various grains, including maize, in 2002/03 main season is almost the same as last year. Overall, the area planted in the large-scale commercial sector declined significantly mainly due to land reform activities and that in the communal areas declined slightly mainly due to adverse weather conditions, particularly as plantings had to be carried out twice or thrice in many areas. However, the area planted in the small-scale commercial sector increased despite unfavourable weather conditions, as seed availability was relatively better for this category of farmers, almost offsetting the declines in other categories. On average, yields are significantly better than last year.

The Mission estimates the main cropping season cereal harvest of 887 061 tonnes in 2002/03 (namely, maize and small grains) for consumption in the 2003/04 marketing year. This is 66 percent higher than that of 2001/02, but still 44 percent lower than that of 2000/01. Maize output in 2002/03, at 802 664 tonnes, is 61 percent higher than last year but 46 percent lower than the year before.

Winter wheat is now being planted and is forecast to be down to 90 000 tonnes compared to last year’s 160 000 tonnes. The reasons for the decline include reduction in both area planted and yield, given that fertilizer availability is seriously constrained. Winter maize is not expected to be of any significance. Altogether, this year’s total cereal production, (i.e., maize, small grains, wheat and a small quantity of rice) is estimated at 980 000 tonnes, 41 percent higher than last year, but 51 percent lower than the year before.

Based on the estimated main season cereal output, projected wheat production and an opening stock of 115 000 tonnes of all cereals, the total cereal import requirement in 2003/04 (April/March) is estimated at 1.287 million tonnes, of which maize constitutes 980 000 tonnes.

In view of low export earnings from tobacco (mainly due to lower production) and cotton, and considering the competing claims on the extremely limited foreign exchange by the critically needed imports of fuel and electricity as well as the servicing of the external debt, the Government’s ability to import maize in 2003/04 is apparently very limited. The substantial maize import last year may also have a constraining effect this year as sources of foreign exchange are as a consequence likely to be severely stressed this year. It is understood that the Government will make every effort to import as much maize as possible; thus, given that a quantity of some 174 000 tonnes of maize is to be received this year out of purchases made last year, a Government import of 196 000 tonnes of maize in 2003/04 is assumed – i.e., a total of 370 000 tonnes. It is also assumed that the deficits of 298 000 tonnes of wheat and 9 000 tonnes of rice this year will be met by commercial imports. The remaining gap, all in terms of maize, is, therefore, 610 000 tonnes to be covered by emergency food aid. Against this requirement, 120 000 tonnes are already in the pipeline leaving 490 000 tonnes to be covered by additional contributions.

Livestock condition is generally good with good pastures and water availability in most areas of the country, particularly following rains brought by Cyclone Japhet in late February/early March 2003. But the number of export quality livestock has declined rapidly from 1.66 million in 2000 to an estimated 0.2 million now. The prices of livestock are also low this year, reducing livestock owners’ coping ability in relation to accessing food grains. Other coping mechanisms have also been seriously stressed during the last year of extreme food shortages, and in many cases effective coping possibilities have been exhausted. It is also the case in certain areas that some people may find some money through different means (sale of livestock, petty trade, wages, gold mining/panning, remittances by relatives) but they cannot procure maize either because it is not available in the market or prices are exorbitant when some supplies are available. While the GMB price is Z$ 634 per 50 kg bag of maize, the market price has been found to vary from Z$ 3 000 to Z$ 8 000 per 18 kg bag in different urban areas of the country. The GMB supplies are reported to be irregular and in certain areas no supplies have been available since December 2002 or even earlier. In late May, the GMB-controlled price of maize meal was raised by almost four times. This will seriously affect the poorest households. The Mission estimates that 4.4 million people in rural areas and an additional 1.1 million in urban areas will not meet their basic cereal requirements this year and will require some food assistance.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING¹

2.1 The general setting

Zimbabwe’s economy has been contracting since 1998. Available data show that the country’s real GDP (at 1990 prices) declined by over 30 percent between 1998 and 2003. A shrinkage of 12.3 percent occurred in 2002 alone compared to the previous year. A further decline of between 7 and 12 percent is anticipated in 2003. Business closures and downsizing and the consequent job losses continue unabated.

Average inflation rate rose to 200 percent in 2002 and it is likely to be up to 300 percent in 2003. It is a classic case of too much money chasing too few goods. Money supply has been rising sharply over the past several years while the real GDP declined. A money supply expansion of about 140 percent was registered in 2002, and the estimated further expansion in 2003 is 160 percent.

Even before the crop failure of 2002, 75 percent of the country’s total population was classified as poor, and 42 percent very poor. The situation is much worse now. One estimate puts structural unemployment at 70 percent, and the situation is worsening. This very high and still increasing unemployment rate, combined with the high and increasing cost of living has caused the poverty situation to worsen to extreme levels. Successive crop failures, severely constraining people’s coping mechanisms, have compounded people’s deprivation. The poor include the rural population of farmers, petty traders and former farm workers as well as urban unemployed and informal sector operators. The situation of over 400 000 former farm workers and their families is desperate, as they have, in many cases, been displaced from their homes, have not benefited from the land reforms and have few employment opportunities.

The decline in export earnings and foreign investment and the suspension of balance of payments and project support by the international multilateral agencies have severely limited the access of Zimbabwe to foreign exchange. The country’s foreign exchange reserve position is precarious. Reportedly, the foreign exchange shortage constrained even the printing of currency notes, as of May 2003 when this Mission was in the country. The general economic decline has also had profoundly adverse effects on the funding of agricultural research, extension and veterinary services and this limits the staff’s ability to carry out their work effectively.

Usually, tobacco exports in the second quarter of a year boosts foreign exchange availability to Zimbabwe. But this year, the prospect in this regard is limited both due to the reduced tobacco production and pre-sale of substantial quantities of tobacco in 2002 by the Government in order to pay for critical imports, including food and fuel. Export earnings from gold and cotton are also reduced. It is clear that the foreign exchange crisis will persist during 2003, while demand will continue to be high in view of the need to import large quantities of food as well as of fuel and other essential capital and intermediate goods.

The country is currently in the grip of a severe and worsening fuel crisis. The Mission observed very long queues at petrol stations. The mission was informed that, not infrequently, after waiting in a queue for 10-12 hours, one may not get any fuel at all. Movement of people and goods are severely constrained as a result.

The prevailing currency exchange rate regime is highly anomalous. The officially fixed exchange rate is Z$ 55 to US$ 1. Then, there was, at the time of the Mission, a semi-official exchange rate that was allowed to be used by banks, hotels and others, which was Z$ 800 to US$ 1. But the parallel market rate was Z$ 1 700-2 200 to US$ 1.This anomaly has been exacerbating the hard currency shortages as much of the incoming foreign exchange finds its way into the parallel market.

Although the cereal production this year is significantly larger than last year’s, a large food gap remains. In certain areas, many are without food even at the harvest time as their crop almost totally failed. A large number of people in many parts of the country will run out of food within the next 2-4 months. With the people’s coping strategies severely stressed during the past year, food insecurity is becoming very serious indeed. The Grain Marketing Board (GMB), a Government agency, sells maize at Z$ 960 per 50 kg bag, but the GMB supplies are widely reported to be irregular. Moreover, even if some people can, and certain groups of people are able to, mobilize some money through, for example, sale of livestock, petty trading, remittances from relatives working in the cities or abroad, and gold panning/mining, they are usually unable to access maize/mealie meal as either there are no supplies of these food items in the market, which is often the case particularly in rural areas, or prices are too high. Food prices vary widely from one part of the country to another. For example, the price of maize was observed in May 2003 to be as high as Z$ 8 000 per 18 kg bag in Bulawayo and around Z$ 3 000 in places such as Mutare, Masvingo and Beit Bridge, and around Z$ 2 000 in Harare. But in most rural areas market prices are irrelevant as there are no maize/mealie meal supplies coming onto the market.

2.2 Agriculture in the national economy

Agriculture is the mainstay of the national economy. It generates food for the people, a large proportion of foreign exchange earnings (e.g. tobacco exports account for 20 to 30 percent of the country’s total foreign exchange; another major agricultural export earner is cotton), and the bulk of the raw materials to the manufacturing sector. The majority of the country’s population is engaged in agriculture that accounts for between 15 and 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Zimbabwe’s land is divided into five natural zones on the basis of soil type and climatic factors. Natural regions 1, 2 and 3 are suitable for intensive crop cultivation and livestock raising, while regions 4 and 5 offer limited scope for crop agriculture but are suitable for livestock raising on a large scale. The bulk of Mashonaland (West, East and Central), Midlands and Manicaland Provinces are under regions 1, 2 and 3, while Matabeleland (North and South) and Masvingo Provinces are under natural regions 4 and 5. The three Mashonaland Provinces constitute the bread-basket of the country.

Zimbabwe’s farming sector can produce, and has in the past produced, exportable surpluses of maize and certain other food crops.

2.3 The Land Reform Programme

At the time of Independence in 1980, land distribution was as follows.

Table 1. Land ownership pattern in Zimbabwe at Independence in 1980.

The large-scale commercial farms were owned by white farmers. A land reform programme was initiated following independence to increase the access of the indigenous people to land. The first phase covered the period 1980 to 1998, during which 3.5 million hectares of large-scale commercial farm land were acquired and 71 000 indigenous families were resettled on those lands. The second phase was initiated in 1998, but only an area of 0.17 million hectares was acquired and 4 697 families were resettled. In July 2000, the “Fast Track” resettlement phase was launched to speed up land acquisition and resettlement. A law was enacted for the purpose, with compulsory acquisition and resettlement being the key focus.

Data collected by the Mission (Table 2) indicate that the beneficiaries number 205 823 as A.1 model farmers (small subsistance farmers) and 28 665 as A.2 model farmers (commercial medium and large farmers), (JB to provide) as of May 2003. A total of 10.7 million hectares has been acquired and redistributed, which accounts for about a quarter of the country’s total land endowment of 39.6 million ha. Aside from the official process, there have also been informal farm invasions, which have occurred regardless of the legal status of those farms under the land reform programme.

These activities and processes have severely disrupted farming activities as many resettled farmers lack access to capital and other inputs or need time to settle down, contributing to this year’s low cereal production. They have also contributed to the catastrophic decline in the national dairy and export beef herds.

Table 2. Beneficiaries of the Land Reform Programme by Province, May 2003

2.4 The effect of HIV/AIDS

The AIDS pandemic was officially reported to be causing the deaths of 2 500 people per week in Zimbabwe in 2000. This is having a major effect on the farming community, with many heads of households succumbing to this disease, leaving orphans behind to be looked after by grandparents and other relatives. Due to general poverty, many of these orphans do not have the means to pay school fees and so do not go to school. The Mission saw many examples of families caring for up to six orphans in addition to their own children. Food aid was targeted at providing a maximum of 50 kg of maize per family per month, sufficient for five people. However, the number of members in many families is more than five, even up to ten so that the food aid supplied to such families has been inadequate.

Due to the current shortage of food throughout the country and especially in the cities, the onset of AIDS is quicker, as people have less resistance to the disease. Labour availability is greatly reduced and hundreds of thousands of orphans face life alone and with dwindling means of support. Social safety nets are breaking down as impoverished people do not have the means to feed and clothe more orphans.

3. Food production in 2002/03

Following a disastrous harvest last year, this year is significantly better in terms of the main season cereal production, estimated at 887 061 tonnes, 66 percent up on last year. Maize production is estimated at 802 664 tonnes, an increase of 61 percent compared to last year. This is attributed to a better rainfall pattern, though many other problems beset the farming industry in 2002/03.

3.1 Rainfall

While the amount of rain over the whole country from October 2002 to March 2003 was, on average, over 75 percent of normal, rainfall was erratic especially in Midlands, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. October was wetter than normal and this encouraged farmers to plant early, except in Mashonaland Central, where only 60 percent of the normal October rains fell. November was generally dry and this led to the loss of many early planted crops. In December, apart from south of Masvingo and parts of Matabeleland, rainfall was well below normal also. Farmers who had not planted were beginning to despair of rains at this point. From January to March the spatial distribution of rainfall was erratic, but sufficient to allow late planting. Cyclone Japhet brought heavy rains in most parts of the country during late February and early March, 2003, In the south of the country, these late planted crops produced some harvest, but in the Mashonalands, many late planted fields failed to produce a useful crop.

3.2 Inputs

Severe shortages at planting time of both maize seed and fertilizer were reported from all districts by communal farmers and A1 farmers, particularly as two or three plantings had to be carried out due to the vagaries of rainfall. The larger A2 farmers had better access to these inputs and thus their production was not so constrained.

A total of 48 000 tonnes of maize seed was reported to be available at the beginning of the season. Of this, the government assumed control of about 18 000 tonnes for distribution throughout the country through Grain Marketing Board depots well above the previous years. Logistical problems caused delays in distribution with the result that seed was often not available when it was needed. The amount of seed available to private sector distributors was severely constrained, especially after October. Only the larger A2 farmers could collect seed from GMB depots, while communal and A1 farmers had to wait for supplies to be distributed. Many farmers reported that they could only obtain 10 kgs of seed, sufficient for only 0.4 ha, well short of their needs. The mission was informed in many parts of the country that some seed which was received late was washed of its dressing and eaten, further reducing seed supplies. Some quantities could also have been unofficially exported due to the high price differential in neighbouring countries. Farmers planted any type of maize seed that they could obtain, thus limiting potential yields.

The fertilizer industry reported that 420 000 tonnes of fertilizer had been distributed throughout the country, compared to 418 000 tonnes in 2000 and 433 000 tonnes in 2001. Price controls held the price of fertilizer at an estimated 34 percent below the cost of production and well below prices in neighbouring countries. Price controls in 2002 had resulted in significant losses by private sector distributors. Given the reported shortages all over the country despite the normal production figure, it may be assumed that, as for seeds, some fertilizer was unofficially exported, though no figures are available to prove this.

Shortages of Ammonium Nitrate were particularly acute so that few crops received the recommended top-dressing. The fertilizer industry is still constrained by foreign exchange shortages to buy potash and spare parts, by shortages of fuel and power and by price controls such that supplies of fertilizer for the upcoming wheat season are very low indeed.

The brewing industry and a large agricultural company provided sufficient inputs to some larger A2 farmers to grow sorghum for brewing and some fine crops of sorghum were seen especially in Mashonaland West. Soya bean production was also assisted in this way and good crops were obtained. As maize is a price controlled crop, such farmers did not grow it, thereby greatly limiting production.

3.3 Pests and diseases

While the effect of erratic rainfall was very severe, pests and disease problems occurred only in few places. Most provinces reported outbreaks of Army Worm affecting 50 –200 ha, but these were efficiently controlled before they could spread and cause more widespread damage. The late rains provided ideal conditions for cob rots on some maize crops in Mashonaland Central but the areas concerned were small.

3.4 Area planted

The area planted to maize is estimated at 1 387 526 hectares, very similar to the previous year’s area of 1 317 800 hectares. Area planted was reduced in many areas, such as Mashonaland West due to lack of seed and fertilizer, lack of draught power, lack of credit to purchase inputs and failure of the GMB to provide sufficient quantities of inputs on time. In Mashonaland East, area planted increased considerably as resettled farmers who had access to sufficient seed, planted more land to maize. As noted above, private sector suppliers did not have the stocks to provide sufficient seed or fertilizer. A further factor affecting area planted was the low uptake of A2 farms, which left vast areas of the most highly productive land in the country fallow for the year. In a normal year this land would have been planted to maize and tobacco and other crops.

Tobacco production is estimated to be 41 percent less than the previous year, with much of the drop due to a sharp reduction in area. Some large scale commercial farmers who were allowed to continue farming produced an estimated 60 million kgs, with 20 million kgs being produced by resettled farmers and communal farmers.

The area planted to sorghum and other drought tolerant crops such as pearl millet and finger millet was constrained by lack of seed throughout the country. Some supplies were imported by NGOs. Some large farms in Mashonaland West were planted to sorghum to be used for industrial purposes, with high yields being obtained due to good management and sufficient inputs of herbicide and fertilizer. This combination resulted in high yielding crops of sorghum, often alongside failed maize crops.

3.5 Yields

The estimated overall maize yield of 0.58 tonnes/ha is low because of many factors. Chief of these were the drought periods during the growing season, but yield was also reduced by lack of fertilizer and quality seed and the lack of the right variety for the particular area, poor land preparation and high infestations of weeds. Farmers, especially newly resettled farmers, also lack training in proper crop husbandry practices. Weed infestation was a major constraint on high yields, especially on A2 farms, most of which did not retain the skilled farm workers who used to work on these farms. The Government tractor hire service was overwhelmed by the demand for land preparation services and many farmers planted without carrying out normal land preparation. Private agricultural contracting services have not developed to supplement the government’s mechanisation service. Ox-draught is scarce in the communal areas and on A1 farms. The effect of HIV/AIDs also militated against timely weeding and other production practices.

Sorghum yield on large commercial farms that had access to quality inputs was expected to be as high as 2 tonnes/ha due to good management and the suitability of sorghum for areas having erratic rainfall.

3.6 Estimated main season production

Table 3 presents estimates of area planted and production during the 2002/03 main season, compared to the same season in 2001/02. Total cereal production is estimated at 887 061 tonnes, 66 percent up on last year’s very poor harvest. Maize production (82 percent of total cereals) is up by 61 percent on last year.

Table 3. Zimbabwe : Area and production of cereals, pulses and cash crops in 2002/03 main cropping season compared to 2001/02 planting season

1/ Commercial sector this year includes large scale commercial farmers and small scale commercial farmers.

2/ Smallholder sector includes communal farmers, A1 and A2 and old resettled farmers. The production data for all non-cereal crops was provided by FEWSNET, using MLARR and the Crop Forecasting Committee figures. The Mission had no part in their preparation and they are included here for reference/comparison purposes.

3/ The smallholder production figures for pearl millet and finger millet include a small area produced by commercial farmers.

3.7 Winter season crops

Wheat is the main winter season crop and 95 percent of it used to be grown on large-scale commercial farms having access to irrigation. The government owned ARDA farms produced about 5 percent. Some small areas were traditionally grown in communal areas. This year there is sufficient seed to grow over 50 000 hectares, but there is a critical shortage of fertilizer. The irrigated area has been reduced considerably. The Mission estimates that only 30 000 hectares of wheat will be planted this season. Potential yields have been reduced due to lack of fertilizer. Wheat prices are lower than those for barley. Some government loans were reported to have been provided to resettled A2 farmers to upgrade irrigation infrastructure. The threat of power cuts by the electricity utility may also prevent irrigation areas powered by electric pumps from working at full capacity and shortages of diesel fuel may prevent irrigation at the desired level. The level of dams in Mashonaland Central is much lower than in the previous year and this may reduce area planted there.

Barley prices are considerably higher than wheat prices, (Z$180 000 compared to Z$150 000) and are not subject to price controls. It is expected that the maximum area of barley will be grown. Constraints on fertilizer which will affect the wheat crop are not expected to affect the barley crop to the same extent as the large companies supplying inputs to barley producers have ample access to inputs.

Table 4. Zimbabwe: Wheat and barley area, yield and production for 1991-2002 and forecast for 2003

Source: Zimbabwe Cereals Producers Association; 2003 forecast by the Mission.

3.8 Livestock

The commercial beef herd on large scale commercial farms numbered 1.66 million head in 2000. It was reported by the Department of Veterinary Services to have declined to 510 000 head in 2002. It has declined still further since then up to an estimate of 200 000 now. This is attributed to the land reform programme, as farmers slaughtered their cattle when their farms were allocated for resettlement. The commercial breeding herd declined from 720 000 to 250 000 between 2001 and 2002. Cattle numbers on communal areas remained relatively constant at 3.9 million head in 2002, but off-take from this herd is estimated at only 3 percent per annum, much lower than its potential.

The decline in the numbers of quality beef cattle has serious and long term implications for beef exports for which there is an annual demand of over 25 000 tonnes.

Cattle in communal areas benefited from rains in February and March associated with Cyclone Japhet and there is adequate grazing now throughout the country. The drought conditions in Matabeleland South in December 2002 resulted in the deaths of thousands of cattle in the districts of Gwanda and Beitbridge, further impoverishing this area. Cattle prices were reported to be very low in Matabeleland North.

The dairy herd continued to decline with prime dairy cows being slaughtered for meat. As a result, milk supplies have declined sharply.

An outbreak of foot and mouth disease, which began in the south of the country has not been controlled and threatens not only the national herd, but also cattle in neighbouring countries. The presence of this disease has also meant that important export markets for Zimbabwe beef are now closed.

Prices of acaricides and other veterinary inputs increased substantially during the year, making it difficult for poorer livestock owners to dip cattle at appropriate times.

4. Production Situation By Province

Table 5. Zimbabwe: Maize Production Estimates by Province in 2002/03 Cropping Season (tonnes)

1/ Large scale commercial production in 2001/02 only included members of the Commercial Farmers Union.

2/ Small-scale commercial farmers, that are members of the Zimbabwe Farmers Union and the Indigenous Commercial

Farmers Union.

3/ This includes 16 000 tonnes of the small-scale commercial farmers.

4.1 Mashonaland West

This province felt the full effects of the land reform programme in 2002. Large areas of the land which had been allocated to A 2 farmers, but was not taken up, were not planted at all. This resulted in a decrease of 40 percent in the area planted to maize in this normally high-producing area.

On the land that was actually planted the lack of labour for weeding and general crop care was evident, with large areas of maize overcome by weeds, with obviously high yield losses. Herbicide costs quintupled early in the season, putting them beyond the reach of most farmers. A 1 farms fared somewhat better in the east of the province, with those farmers who managed to get enough seed and fertilizer in time recording yields of up to 3 tonnes/ha. However, in Makonde District the communal lands and A1 farms succumbed to drought, exacerbated by severe shortages of inputs such as seed and fertilizer. A2 farmers, who had the resources to buy seed and fertilizer at the right time and to hire machinery for land preparation achieved yields of up to 3 tonnes/ha.

Total maize production in Mashonaland West is estimated at 70 542 tonnes, compared to 76 964 tonnes in the previous season and 188 045 tonnes in 2000/2001.

A reported 850 hectares of sorghum were grown for beer brewing, with very high yields being obtained. This was due to the provision by a commercial company of all the necessary inputs, including herbicides, fertilizers and technical advice. As a result, yields of sorghum were over 4 tonnes/ha on these farms. The quality of the sorghum crops on all farms this season, as compared to maize crops, underlined the superiority of this crop in marginal rainfall areas. A total of 290 hectares of pearl millet and 1858 hectares of finger millet were grown, with good yields being obtained. Unfortunately, seed supplies were not adequate to meet the demand at planting time.

Wheat production in Mashonaland West is expected to decline sharply due to scarcity of fertilizer and operational irrigation equipment. Barley production is expected to rise due to better prices being offered by industrial users and the availability of all necessary inputs provided on loan by these companies. Barley is also not subject to price controls, which enhances marketing opportunities.

4.2 Mashonaland Central Province

The early drought destroyed many maize crops in the communal areas of Bindura District. Crops were better in A 1 and communal farms in parts of Guruve, but in the Zambezi Valley areas, crops were either destroyed by drought on the higher lands or by flooding along the river banks. This impoverished many farmers in Guruve north and Mazarabanda. The eastern half of Rushinga District had a disastrous harvest, with early sown crops destroyed by drought. Replanting was hampered by lack of seed and fertilizer. Maize production is estimated at 109 198 tonnes, compared to 79 671 tonnes in 2002 (a very poor year) and 220 211 tonnes in 2001.

Lack of seed and fertilizer were widely cited as the cause of lower planted areas. Where crops failed due to the early dry spell during October and November, sufficient seed and fertilizer for replanting was only obtained with the greatest difficulty and in many cases farmers failed to obtain seed in time. Lower quality seed had to be planted due to scarcity of hybrid seed, with predictable declines in yields per hectare being recorded.

A total of 2 581 hectares of sorghum, 1 580 hectares of pearl millet and 1 135 hectares of finger millet were planted with production estimated at 2 216 tonnes of sorghum, 790 tonnes of pearl millet and 911 tonnes of finger millet. As in other provinces, shortage of seed prevented further plantings.

4.3 Mashonaland East

The rains which accompanied Cyclone Japhet in the last week of February and the first week of March enabled some late sown crops to complete their growth cycle. Early sown crops planted in early October ran into a prolonged dry period beginning in the second week of October and lasting until late November.

Almost all the A1 farmers took up the farms allocated to them while in some districts the uptake of A2 farms was as low as 15 percent. As a result of this, large areas of good arable land remained uncultivated. On those A2 farms which were taken up, lack of seed, fertilizer and draught power, together with lack of skilled labour (few of the original farm labourers were kept on to work on the newly allocated A2 farms) led to serious reductions in yield.

Total smallholder maize production in Mashonaland East is estimated at 143 703 tonnes, an increase of 224 percent compared to the previous year. Sorghum area planted by smallholders is estimated at 6 234 ha, producing an estimated 1 995 tonnes, with a further 260 tonnes being produced by the commercial sector.

The districts of Seke and Chikomba were badly hit by the dry period in November and December. Many farmers lost their crops and could not obtain the seed and fertilizer to plant again. Most farmers have produced only 200-250 kgs of maize, sufficient for up to July 2003.

4.4 Manicaland

The rains were erratic this year, though the overall amount was about average. After an early start in October, which favoured early planting of maize and other cereals, drought set in quickly and affected early- planted crops. Crops that were planted from early December to late December did well and are about to be harvested.