SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT

MISSION TO THE DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF KOREA

30 October 2003

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. OVERALL ECONOMIC SETTING AND AGRICULTURE IN DPR KOREA
• 3. FOOD CROP PRODUCTION IN 2002/03 (REVISION)
• 4. FOOD CROP PRODUCTION IN 2003/04
• 5. FOOD SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK, 2003/04 (November - October)

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 23 September to 4 October to assess the 2003 crop harvest, forecast 2004 production of winter/spring wheat, barley and potato crops, and estimate cereal import requirements for the 2003/04 marketing year (November/October), including food aid needs.

The Mission interviewed government and cooperative officials, and observed standing and harvested crops still in fields to assess yields. The Mission also visited schools, nurseries, hospitals, Public Food Distribution Centres, and rural and urban families. The Mission covered seven out of 12 provinces of the country, which account for over 80 percent of the national cereal and potato production. The provinces visited include North Pyongan, South Pyongan, North Hwanghae, South Hwanghae, Pyongyang (rural districts and counties), Kangwon and South Hamgyong. Discussions were held with staff of UN agencies, NGOs, resident diplomatic missions, and government officials at the national, provincial and county levels. The Mission also used rainfall and temperature charts and high resolution SPOT-4 satellite images to verify vegetation conditions in 2003 compared to previous years.

This year rainfall and temperature at the beginning of the season were more favourable for crop production than they were last year. This resulted in generally better yields of spring crops and of the winter wheat sown at the end of 2002. It also benefited nursery operations and the transplanting of paddy, as well as the timely planting and establishment of maize. Some local flooding was reported, but very much less than in previous years. However, towards the end of August and throughout September most areas experienced below-average temperatures and above-average cloud cover which delayed crop maturation and reduced yield expectations. Though crop pests and diseases were widely reported this year, their levels of incidence were generally relatively low. Improved availability of electricity resulted in more effective functioning of irrigation pumping-stations; fewer paddy fields dried out during the growing season than in recent years and in cases where there were prolonged breaks in power supply favourable rainfall was often sufficient to alleviate the problem. The use of fertilizer increased again this year, and more tractors were operational as a result of better access to fuel and spare parts. Construction of the Kechan-Taesong Lake canal funded by the OPEC has been completed this year improving gravity irrigation facilities in the main Cereal Bowl region of the country. This combined with the land re-alignment exercise in the paddy fields has created improved conditions for increasing irrigation efficiency.

This generally positive situation is expected to result in a 4.7 percent increase in estimated crop production (cereal and cereal equivalent) for 2003/04 compared with 2002/03 (revised), and a continuation in the improvement in domestic food production from the low levels seen in the mid to late 1990s. It should, however, be noted that the national food-availability estimates for the coming year include forecasts for winter and spring-sown crops which will not be harvested until the second quarter of 2004. The contribution of these crops to the national total is expected to be about 12 percent. The production estimate would need to be revised once the harvest outcome of these crops is known.

Despite the good outcome, the 2003 cereal production still remains well below the minimum consumption needs of the country. The estimated total cereal production, including potatoes in cereal equivalent, available for consumption in the 2003/04 marketing year (Nov./Oct.) amounts to 4.156 million tonnes. Food use, based on an estimated population of 23.62 million, and other utilization needs are estimated at 5.100 million tonnes. This results in a deficit of 944 000 tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at only 100 000 tonnes due to low import capacity of the country, while concessional imports are estimated at 300 000 tonnes and pledged/pipeline food aid at 140 000 tonnes. This leaves an uncovered deficit of 404 000 tonnes which needs to be covered by additional food aid and concessional imports.

Although a Government/UNICEF/WFP nutrition survey in October 2002 indicated an improvement in the general nutritional status of children, malnutrition remains alarmingly high. One problem is the still inadequate availability of basic food, despite the increases in cereal production, and of food items that allow for a more balanced diet. Another problem is the further deterioration of the already insufficient purchasing power of many urban PDS-dependant households who have been recently displaced or under-employed due to the transitory effects of the economic reforms, and who at the same time face steep increases in food prices.

Continued targeted food aid interventions for vulnerable people are therefore called for to prevent a slippage towards the previous malnutrition levels. Children in orphanages, kindergartens and nurseries, primary school children, pregnant and nursing women and elderly should continue to form the core of WFP’s beneficiaries. In addition, efforts should be made to reach low income PDS-dependants in highly urban areas who may have become food insecure. In order to identify these households, WFP needs access to verifiable data on incomes, prices, family size and other information to complete its Household Food Economy Analysis, and to design the most appropriate assistance modality. The Government has recently been more forthcoming with this data than in the past.

2. OVERALL ECONOMIC SETTING AND AGRICULTURE IN DPR KOREA

2.1 Macroeconomy ¹

The economic recovery that began in 1999 continued for the fourth year in a row with an estimated GDP growth rate of 1.2 percent in 2002 following a 3.7 percent growth the year before (see table 1). The bulk of this growth during the last two years has been due to improved production in the agriculture sector. In spite of this growth the country has not yet recovered the per capita income level of US$ 811 achieved in 1997. The population suffered from a decline in per capita income of nearly 30 percent in 1998 compared to the year before. The per capita income in 2002 has been estimated at US$ 762. The DPR Korea had experienced a severe economic decline since early 1990s with unfavourable changes in trade with its traditional partners in the former USSR and Eastern Europe combined with major natural disasters affecting agricultural output in 1996, 1997 and 2000.

Total trade deficit increased from a low level of US$ 448 million in 1997 to a record high of US$ 1.02 billion in 2001 with a sharp improvement in 2002 at US$ 790 million (see Table 1). Trade with the Republic of Korea (ROK) has increased substantially over the years (excluded in Table 1 below). ROK is now the North’s number two overall trade partner (after China) and a top export destination for the first time. However, these and other positive developments such as improvement in the nutritional levels of children as outlined in the results of the Nutrition Assessment 2002, are not enough to tackle the chronic food insecurity problems for the general population.

Table 1: DPR Korea – Key Economic Indicators, 1997-2002 ^1/

1/ Excluding inter-Korea trade.

Source: Bank of Korea, Seoul and Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, Seoul

(as cited in the Economists Intelligence Unit 2003 Country Report).

2.2 Agricultural sector

Agriculture, including forestry and fisheries, contributed about 30 percent of GDP in 2002 (Bank of Korea). The performance of this sector has been erratic with negative growth rates in 1997 and in 2000. Over the past several years, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, tidal surges, hail storms, typhoons and extremely cold winters have affected agriculture with varying degrees of severity, with consequent adverse impacts on food production. Also the precarious foreign exchange situation has not allowed significant commercial imports of much needed agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, pesticides, plastic sheeting, spare parts for machinery, tyres for tractors and trucks, fuel, etc. Over the years domestic production of fertilizer has declined to a level of about 10 percent of total requirement, increasing reliance on fertilizer donations. Yields of the main crop (paddy) used to be around 7 or 8 tonnes per ha during the 1980s, but now they are about half of that due to lack of agricultural inputs. In order to increase total food production in the country, every possible piece of cultivable land is being brought under production, but cultivation of marginal lands has unintended consequences of soil erosion and further reduction in overall land productivity. The total food gap in the last 8 years has ranged from 0.97 million tonnes in 2002/03 to 2.2 million tonnes in 2000/01. Thus productivity improvement is desperately needed.

About 50 percent of tractors are not operational due to shortage of spare parts, tyres and fuel. The obsolete and decaying farm machinery and irrigation facilities need rehabilitating or systematic replacing. Irrigation facilities require streamlining, preferably linked to large gravity-fed networks. More fertilizer alone is not likely to provide sustainable enhancement in agricultural productivity; other innovative, environmentally non-degrading agricultural techniques (such as soil fertility improvement with green manuring, alternatives to chemical fertilizer, crop rotations, integrated pest management, policy reforms, etc.) need to be put into practice. Double cropping of wheat and barley after rice and maize (cereal after cereal) on already exhausted soils is non-sustainable. Introduction of leguminous crops in the crop rotation is vital. Thus, increased assistance from the international community is needed towards rehabilitation of industries, infrastructure and the agricultural sector.

2.3 Economic policy adjustment

In July 2002 the Government announced substantial increases in wages, prices and currency exchange rate from previously highly subsidised or artificially low levels². Agricultural commodities were also affected by this economic policy adjustment. Accordingly, rice and maize prices in the public distribution centres are now 46 won and 24 won per kg, respectively, compared to about 0.9 and 0.7 won/kg before July 2002. Farm gate prices after the adjustment are 29 won/kg for paddy (or 42 won for rice) and 20 won/kg for maize. Prices of various inputs such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, electricity, etc. have gone up but generally seem to have resulted in better overall economic incentives to farmers. Cash crops such as tobacco and cotton provide relatively greater profitability than the usual staple crops, however, their cultivation is restricted until the targets for staple cereals are met.

There has been an important market reform since June 2003 as farmers’ markets for the first time are officially recognised in the country. In addition to vegetables, potatoes and green maize from kitchen gardens, a variety of consumer goods are sold in these markets. Farmers, however, do not have direct access to these markets to sell their staple food commodities (over and above their grain allocation for home consumption) because these have to be sold to the government procurement agency. If allowed, farmers’ markets throughout the country can play an important role in this new incentive-based system. It is recommended that in addition to providing urgently needed food aid, the Government and the International Community enter into a policy dialogue to set an enabling framework to mobilize the economic, financial and other assistance needed to promote sustainable food production and overall food security.

In addition, the DPR Korea has implemented a policy of controlled economic liberalization on a limited scale in three selected special administrative zones in the country. These are Sinuiiju in the north-west bordering China as a free economic area, Mt. Kumgang in the south-east as tourist resort, and Kaesong in the south-west as an industrial park. Transportation is being improved with re-connection of road and rail links to Seoul in the Republic of Korea. These special administrative zones are expected to generate economic growth. However, presently these are in their infancy and only time will tell what impact they will have, if any, on the economy.

3. FOOD CROP PRODUCTION IN 2002/03 (REVISION)

The figures presented in the report of the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission of 2002 included production forecast for winter and spring crops that would be harvested in 2003. These figures were based on planned cropping areas and average yields from the previous five years. The actual areas and production of these crops have now been reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and their substitution into the 2002/03 table results in a slight increase in production for that year over the forecast level. The area planted to winter and spring crops was 20 000 ha (almost 9 percent) less than had been planned. However, the enhanced yields resulting from the favourable weather conditions at the beginning of 2003 more than compensated for this shortfall, and production in terms of cereal and cereal equivalent was 82 000 t (21 percent) above expectations. Applied to the total annual production for the year 2002/03, these amended figures represent an overall production increase of 2 percent from a cropped area 1 percent smaller than had been predicted.

The Mission of 2002 did not include household garden production which, for 2003/04, has been estimated at 50 000 tonnes of cereal or cereal equivalent nationally (see ‘Household gardens’ section below). On the assumption that household garden production was similar in both years, this figure has been added to the 2002/03 total, bringing it to 3.969 million tonnes.

Amended figures incorporating these adjustments are given below in Table 2. In this report, comparisons with 2002/03 production refer to the amended figures.

Table 2: DPR Korea - Area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 t) of food crops (Amended from report of October 2002)

1/ Converted from paddy with a milling rate of 65 percent.

2/ Potato cereal equivalent of 25 percent.

3/ Includes sorghum, millets and summer wheat and barley.

4/ Area of 20 000 hectares and production of 50 000 tonnes for potatoes and green maize together (in cereal equivalent) from the kitchen gardens has been added to the winter/spring crops and to the total national figure. The production is net of seed requirement.

* Figures may not add-up exactly due to rounding.

4. FOOD CROP PRODUCTION IN 2003/04

4.1 Climate

The Korean peninsula has a continental climate. Average temperatures in DPR Korea vary from -19°C in winter (Ryanggang in January, the coldest month) to 25°C in summer (South Hwanghae in August, the hottest month). The frost-free period ranges from 160 to 190 days, depending on altitude and latitude, and determines the length of the cropping season and choice of crops. Average annual rainfall varies from 600-980 mm in the north and north-east (Jagang, Ryanggang, North and South Hamgyong Provinces) to 880-1300 mm in the centre, south-west and south-east (North and South Pyongan, Nampo, Pyongyang, North and South Hwanghae, Kaesong and Kangwon Provinces). About 85 percent of all precipitation occurs during the spring-summer months, while 60 percent is distributed in June-September. Typhoons are a regular occurrence, the effects of which are felt at least once per growing season, usually in late summer or early autumn.

The early part of the 2003 cropping season benefited from satisfactory rainfall which was above average in many locations for April and May (see Figure 1). This was accompanied by generally favourable temperatures and sunny conditions. By the beginning of June, satellite imagery (FAO GIEWS) was indicating above-average levels of vegetation over most of the country, and this continued through July and much of August. Some parts of the country experienced localised problems with rainfall distribution during this period, but they were mostly minor. Towards the end of August, however, cloudier conditions prevailed and air temperatures, especially during the hours of darkness, fell below average for the time of year. The combination of cooler conditions and reduced sunshine hours continued through September into October, delaying maturation of the main-season crops by an estimated 7 - 10 days and reducing yield expectations. By the end of September, a large proportion of the paddy remained to be harvested, and some maize was still standing in the field. The cloudy, humid weather also tended to favour the spread of crop diseases such as leaf blight and blast of rice. Continuing rainfall into October could compromise final paddy production by increasing post-harvest losses in the field prior to the crop being removed for threshing.

DPR Korea was fortunate to avoid a typhoon in mid-September which caused considerable damage in the Republic of Korea. Some high winds and heavy rainfall were experienced along the coast of DPR Korea as a result of the typhoon, but damage was minimal.

Figure 1: Monthly rainfall in four different provinces of DPR Korea, 2003 and long-term averages

Sources: 2003 monthly average rainfall by Province – Ministry of Agriculture, DPRK and Average Data – FAOCLIM2 – World-wide agro-climatic database.

4.2 Area planted

Total land area in DPR Korea amounts to 122 543 sq. km, of which the total cultivated land area is estimated at 17-18 percent, or slightly in excess of 2 million hectares. Approximately 1.4 million hectares are considered suitable for cereal cultivation, 300 000 hectares are under vegetable crops, some 160 000 hectares under fruit orchards and a considerable area allocated to various other food and industrial crops such as mulberry, ginseng and tobacco. There is very limited scope for expanding cultivable areas. The Government has investigated the possibility of reclaiming some 300 000 hectares of tidal lands and another 200 000 hectares by terracing of mountainous areas. Due to the high cost involved, little progress has so far been made mainly in hill terracing. The ongoing land re-alignment exercise has increased the paddy production area by about 2 per cent.

Paddy

Paddy is now the most important crop of DPR Korea in terms of both area cultivated and production (though rice production, converted from paddy with a milling rate of 65 percent, is lower than that of maize). It is grown mainly in the central, south-western and south-eastern parts of the country (the lowland parts of North and South Pyongan, North and South Hwanghae, Pyongyang, Nampo and Kaesong, collectively known as the "Cereal Bowl") and the narrow east coastal strip comprising parts of Kangwon, and North and South Hamgyong Provinces. Smaller acreages are also cultivated in Jagang and Ryanggang Provinces.

Paddy is cultivated in the alluvial plains or on graded terraces equipped with irrigation control systems. The cultivated area has remained almost constant over the last decade. Paddy plots vary in shape and size. However, a province-by-province realignment operation has been under way during the past four seasons in order to improve the layout of paddies. In many of the plains in North and South Pyongan, Pyongyang, Nampo, Kangwon and South Hwanghae Provinces, smaller plots, generally varying in size between 0.25 and 0.5 hectares, have been transformed and re-aligned into well laid-out regular plots with uniform depth. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, land realignment has so far increased the overall paddy production area by 60 000 hectares.

In 2003, the area under paddy was reported as 593 390 ha, an increase of 1.8 percent over the previous year’s area. In periods of severe water shortages, the paddy area may be reduced and subsequently planted with soya, or more drought-resistant crops such as sorghum and millet. However, this year, good utilisation of this expanded area was helped by the generally favourable rainfall and the improved electricity supply for irrigation pumping stations.

Maize

Maize, which is mainly produced under rainfed conditions, is more universally distributed than paddy. Until 1998, the area under maize amounted to some 630 000 hectares. Since then, however, the government has set lower maize planting targets in order to avoid expansion into lands with low potential. On such marginal lands, less water-demanding cereal crops and pulses have substituted maize while, on lands with higher potential, vegetables and main season potato have entered into the crop rotations. This year’s area of 494 996 showed a very slight reduction compared with last year’s area of 496 390 hectares.

Potato

Potatoes are grown as a spring (double) crop in the Cereal Bowl region, and as a summer crop in the cooler northern highlands (Jagang, Ryanggang), where a shorter growing season is experienced. As a double crop, potato is sown in March-April and harvested in June, while as a main crop it is sown in May-June and harvested in August-September. In response to the reduced productivity of the main cereals in the late 1990s, the land under potato was increased in all the major agricultural areas in an attempt to boost carbohydrate production. Availability of seed is the most important limiting factor to the expansion of the area under potato, as seed must be stored during the winter months, which can be particularly severe especially in the north of the country. Potato blight has also seriously affected crops in some areas, as has aphids infestation. The maximum cultivable area of spring and main season crops under present conditions is around 190 000 hectares. The areas under spring and main-season potato this year were 99 000 hectares and 89 000 hectares respectively. The area under spring potatoes in 2004 is expected to be similar to that of spring 2003.

Winter wheat and spring barley

Winter wheat and spring barley are produced in all provinces except Ryanggang and North Hamgyong. They were the main cereals in the Double-Cropping programme initiated in 1996 jointly by FAO and UNDP as part of the Government framework for agricultural recovery. The programme is considered, under present conditions, to be an effective strategy for enhancing food production. The aim of the programme is to utilise part of the agricultural land between October and June for winter and early cereal and potato crops which are then followed by maize and paddy from June to September. Efforts to increase the use of double-cropping have led to an expansion of the double-cropped area under winter wheat, spring barley and spring potato from 38 000 hectares in 1997 to more than 211 000 hectares in 2002/03 (an increase of almost 530 percent). Winter wheat is sown from the end of September to mid-October, immediately after the harvesting of the main-season crops. Factors influencing the area under winter wheat include autumn rainfall, timely availability of seed, and the availability of adequate farm power and labour at a time when the demand for labour is high for various other operations, especially the harvesting of paddy. Spring barley is sown in March. Both winter wheat and spring barley are harvested in the latter half of June. A further 19 percent expansion of the area under winter wheat from 57 700 hectares to 68 500 hectares is planned for 2003/04, while the area under spring barley in 2004 is expected to remain close to that of 2003.

Other crops

Other important crops produced in DPR Korea include summer wheat and barley, sorghum, millet, soybean, buckwheat, vegetables (mainly cabbage, spinach, radish, cucumber, eggplant and tomato) and fruit (mainly pears, peaches, apricots, apples and persimmons). Many farms also have sizeable mulberry plantations. The short agricultural growing season limits crop rotations and favours cereal mono-culture.

Summer wheat is grown in the higher-altitude parts of Jagang, Ryanggang, and North and South Hamgyong, where the growing season is relatively short.

The area under minor cereals and grains such as sorghum, various types of millet and summer wheat and barley in mountainous areas has increased this year from 54 000 hectares to 60 000 hectares, reversing last year’s downward trend. The area under soybean, which is generally planted along the boundaries of paddy fields or intercropped with maize and/or sorghum appears to be increasing.

Household gardens

Each cooperative farm household is entitled to a private garden of 30 pyong or about 100 square metres. There are approximately two million such households in the country, constituting a total household-garden area of about 20 000 hectares. A typical pattern of cultivation in these gardens is an early crop of potatoes and green maize, followed by vegetables such as cabbage, peppers, radish and garlic. The productivity of these plots is generally better than the average achieved on cooperative farms.

Crop production on sloping land

Agricultural land in DPR Korea is distributed amongst 3 295 co-operative and state farms. However, persistent shortages of domestic fuel and food have led, in recent years, to the removal of fuel wood from sloping land and the subsequent cropping of that land. Cropping on such steep slopes has led to the erosion of fragile soils in many areas.

In the past, crop and food-supply assessment missions have not taken account of crop production on land with slopes of more than 15 percent, where timber has been removed for household fuel. Such cultivation is technically illegal, but the authorities turned a blind eye to it in the late 1990s when domestic food production was especially low and families faced severe hardship. The practice is said to be diminishing now, and reforestation is being extensively carried out. Nonetheless, slope cultivation is still very evident in many parts of the country. It would be difficult to estimate the contribution that crop production from sloping land makes to the overall national total, but the Government has indicated that it will attempt to do so in the coming year. Individual estimates based purely on observation in North Hamgyong and Ryanggang provinces suggest that slope cultivation should add about 30 percent and 20 percent respectively to the officially recorded cultivated areas of these provinces. However, yields (of maize and potatoes) on the slopes may be as low as 25 percent of those achieved on the flat land of the cooperative farms, meaning that the sloping land’s contribution to production would be an additional 5 to 8 percent of mainly maize. In the absence of quantitative information, and in anticipation of an estimate from the Government next year, the Mission has not included this land in the national production calculation for this 2003/04.

Livestock

Numbers of goats, rabbits and poultry rose again this year but numbers of pigs and draught cattle on cooperative farms remained fairly static in response to the continuing shortage of feed. Stocks of pigs on most cooperative farms are maintained for the purpose of breeding in anticipation of a future improvement in the feed situation. However, the number of pigs in private ownership appears to have risen as a result of the market accepting a measure of liberalization, with piglets representing a source of household income.

Table 3: DPR Korea - Livestock population, 1996-2003 ('000 head)

4.3 Means of production and inputs

Planting material

In DPR Korea, suitable paddy and hybrid maize seed, produced by specialised cooperative or state farms, is provided on credit each year to producer cooperative farms through the Government’s distribution system. This year, seed was available on time, and correct sowing dates were observed.

Paddy is typically planted in nurseries at the beginning of April and transplanted in late May or early June. Seed rates are high at 150 kg/ha, purportedly to compensate for low soil fertility. The availability of plastic sheeting to protect nursery seedlings from low temperatures and desiccating winds was similar to that of last year. However, the weather conditions this year were more benign, with better rainfall and slightly higher temperatures. Varieties are selected to complement the conditions of the soil in which they will be grown. Consequently in recent years varieties of rather lower yield potential have been grown, reflecting the below-optimum fertility status of most soils and the possibility that they may have to contend with adverse soil-moisture conditions during the growing season.

Hybrid maize is planted at between 40 and 50 kg/ha, giving a plant population of 35 000 - 50 000 per hectare.

Potato planting material in DPR Korea is usually of poor quality and seeding rates are lower than recommended because of supply shortages. The practice of cutting tubers into four pieces for seed not only depresses yield but also encourages disease infestation. These shortcomings are reflected in the low yields obtained - about 10 t/ha fresh weight nationally for the spring crop and 12 t/ha fresh weight for the main crop.

Sufficient seed for planting the planned area of winter wheat is said to be available. The nationally recommended seed rate for both wheat and barley is 150 kg/ha/

Fertilizer

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 244 512 nutrient tonnes of fertilizer were used in agriculture in DPR Korea during 2003, compared with only 189 000 tonnes in the previous year. Most was provided as humanitarian assistance by the Republic of Korea, the European Union, FAO and various NGOs. Just over 32 000 nutrient tonnes were produced in the country, and 37 706 nutrient tonnes were imported commercially. Of the total used, 68 percent was nitrogen, mostly in the form of urea; 15.5 percent was phosphorus; and 16.5 percent was potassium. All farms visited by the Mission reported using higher fertilizer application rates this year than they had done for several years, and on average about 10 percent higher than in 2002. Farms cited this as the main reason for increased yields. Typical fertilizer application rates this year in the Cereal Bowl provinces ranged from 380 to 500 kg ammonium sulphate equivalent per hectare of paddy (about 165 to 215 kg per hectare of urea, the most commonly used product), with slightly lower rates for maize.

The policy of the Government regarding fertilizer distribution is based on two main principles. It should be equitably distributed, and, within the constraints of availability, it should be allocated according to each area’s production potential. If, therefore, fertilizer is given by a donor for use in a particular province, the Government will adjust that province’s allocation from the national pool according to its guiding principles. The use of fertilizer by province during 2003 is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: DPR Korea - Use of fertilizer (nutrient tonnes) by province, 2003

Pest and disease control

This year saw some outbreaks of water weevils in paddy. The pest was reported to be present over an area of about 400 000 ha and to have affected yield in 150 000 ha in North Hwanghae, Pyongyang City and Nampo provinces. Damage, however, was limited in most cases by temporarily draining the paddy fields. Leaf rollers were also present and their incidence was reported as being above average in many locations. Control measures included spraying with Nubacuron. Stem borers, generally present at normal levels, were often controlled using night-lights and parasitic bees. Sheath blight was widespread, and was encouraged by the cloudy, humid conditions late in the season. Some local instances of neck blast (where the crop had been temporarily submerged or subjected to particularly humid conditions) and smut were observed.

The main pest problem faced by maize this year was attack by stem borers, though some instances of cutworms at the seedling stage were also reported. Stem borers were effectively controlled using night-lights and parasitic bees. A root and stem rot was also reported at several locations.

Potato was not reported to have been subject to exceptional pest or disease pressure this year.

DPR Korea depends on imports and assistance for its phytosanitary chemicals. According to the Ministry of Agriculture the country imported or received 50 000 litres of deltamethrin, 18 tonnes of quinchloride, 20 tonnes of NC-311, 50 tonnes of butachlor, 140 tonnes of MZ-965, 176 tonnes of nubacuron and 18 tonnes of MTS in 2003. Increasing interest is being shown in integrated pest management (IPM) from both the economic and the environmental point of view, and FAO has recently been involved in encouraging its use.

Farm power

The use of farm power has increased this year. 57 percent of the country’s 64 225 tractors are now reported to be operational as a result of enhanced availability of fuel, tyres and spare parts, compared with 55 percent last year. However, most functioning tractors are extremely old. It would appear that about half of the land preparation in the Cereal Bowl provinces must still be done using draught cattle, although some farms report that as much as 70 percent of their cultivations are carried out by tractor. Farms also report a slight improvement in power supplies this year, which is especially important for pumping-stations and threshing.

Irrigation

Although some irrigation is by gravity feed, most systems depend on electrically powered pumping stations. Some farms depend for their irrigation on series of ten or more pumping-stations and are consequently very vulnerable to water shortages. This year the power supply improved so there were fewer stoppages. In addition, rainfall was reasonably well distributed, with the result that stoppages were less serious than they might otherwise have been. Water levels in the country’s reservoirs have been satisfactory, and by September 2003 were at 68 percent of capacity, significantly higher than last year (see Figure 3).

The country’s long-term irrigation situation continues to improve. The 148 km Pyong-Nam Waterway in South Pyongan Province was recently completed, and the construction of two similar waterways (North Pyongan, North Hwanghae-Kangwon) has started. These are all gravity systems, which will be linked up to the existing network, thus reducing the need for pumping-stations.

4.4 Yield and production

Production parameters of food crops in DPR Korea for 2003/04 are presented in Tables 5, 6 and 7. Main-crop estimates (rice, maize, potato and other cereals including summer wheat, sorghum and millet in Table 5) are based on a combination of Government estimates, on-farm discussions, field observation, and discussions with other agencies involved in crop production. Winter and spring crop forecasts for 2003/04 (to be harvested in 2004, shown in Table 6) are based on a combination of Government target crop areas, on-farm discussions and recent reported yields. Table 7 gives the sum of area and production of main crops, winter and spring crops, and household garden production (see above).

Paddy

This year’s national paddy yield, at about 3.85 tonnes per hectare, was slightly higher than that of last year at 3.75 tonnes per hectare. Positive factors affecting yield included good weather early in the season, increased use of fertilizer, better power supplies and improved mechanization, while negative factors included cool, cloudy weather late in the season and some pest and disease damage. A small increase in area coupled with slightly better yield leads to an estimation of paddy production this year of 2.284 million tonnes, an increase over last year’s production (2.186 million tonnes) of 4.5 percent. Assuming a milling ratio of 65 percent, this equates to 1.484 million tonnes of rice.

Maize

Average maize yields this year were 3.48 tonnes per hectare, an increase of 4.5 percent over last year’s average yield of 3.33 tonnes per hectare. Factors contributing to the better yield included good weather at the beginning of the season, low incidence of pests and diseases, increased fertilizer use and more farm mechanization. Being harvested earlier than paddy, maize was less affected by the cool, cloudy weather of September. National maize production this year is estimated to be 1.725 million tonnes. The area under maize this year was very similar to that of last year so all extra production (74 000 tonnes) can be attributed to increased yield.

Potatoes

Main-crop potato yields were slightly higher this year than last at 3.20 tonnes cereal equivalent per hectare (about 12.8 tonnes fresh weight per hectare). This low level of productivity appears to be attributable mainly to poor-quality seed. National production of main-crop potato in cereal equivalent is estimated to be 285 000 tonnes.

Other cereals (sorghum, millets and summer wheat and barley) which are grown on less than 5 percent of the total area showed considerable increase in both area and yield this year compared to the last.

Table 5: DPR Korea - Main-season crop production, 2003 (Area in ‘000 ha, yields in t/ha and production in ‘000 tonnes)