Economic and Social Department

 global information and early warning system on food and agriculture

 food outlook
No. 5 Rome, November 2003

Previous pageTable Of ContentsNext page

highlights

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

FOOD EMERGENCIES UPDATE 1/

Cereals: Supply/Demand Roundup

Cereals: Current Production and Crop Prospects

Cereals: Trade

Cereals : Carryover Stocks

Cereals: Export prices

Ocean Freight Rates

Meat and Meat Products

Milk and Milk Products

Oilseeds, Oils and Oilmeals

Sugar

Fertilizers

APPENDIX TABLES

STATISTICAL NOTE

BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

 1999/20002000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003
estimate
2003/2004
forecast
Change 2003/04
over 2002/2003
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/(million tonnes)(percentage)
Wheat591.8585.7588.7570.2561.9-1.5
Coarse grains888.5874.8917.0881.6918.24.1
Rice, milled409.1400.7400.1384.8394.42.5
(paddy)(611.2)(599.2)(598.6)(576.0)(591.0)2.6
All cereals (incl. milled rice) 1 889.4 1 861.2 1 905.8 1 836.6 1 874.4 2.1
Developing countries 1 041.4 1 006.7 1 026.2 1 002.5 1 037.63.5
Developed countries848.0854.4879.6834.1836.80.3
WORLD TRADE 2/      
Wheat 110.3101.2108.7105.996.5-8.9
Coarse grains102.0108.2105.4103.5104.51.0
Rice (milled)23.224.228.127.926.3-5.9
All cereals 235.5 233.5 242.3 237.2 227.3 -4.2
of which: Food aid shipments 3/10.68.97.48.6  
WORLD UTILIZATION      
Wheat 594.7599.7609.0615.3615.80.1
Coarse grains898.2909.3929.9924.6937.91.4
Rice (milled)400.3405.4410.6412.4416.30.9
All cereals 1 893.2 1 914.3 1 949.4 1 952.3 1 970.0 0.9
Developing countries 1 155.9 1 163.1 1 185.4 1 187.1 1 211.12.0
Developed countries737.3751.2764.0765.2758.8-0.8
Per Caput Food Use (kg/year) 
Developing countries166.5165.3165.7164.6165.10.3
Developed countries131.5132.0131.6131.0130.8-0.2
WORLD STOCKS 4/(million tonnes) 
Wheat 257.3244.0226.0181.0128.3-29.1
Coarse grains261.9227.9211.6172.6151.7-12.1
Rice (milled)168.4163.6150.6122.4102.2-16.5
All cereals 687.6 635.4 588.3 476.0 382.3 -19.7
Developing countries522.7474.8419.9333.6254.0-23.9
Developed countries165.0160.6168.4142.4128.3-9.9
EXPORT PRICES 3/(US$/tonne) 
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/253207177197201 5/1.0 6/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW)112128127161147 7/-16.2 6/
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow)918690107102 7/-6.6 6/
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 3/      
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt13.715.015.016.722.0 7/-18.9 6/
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/(million tonnes) 
Roots & tubers production 1/438.2450.3445.9450.4451.30.2
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/820.6777.8786.9773.1782.51.2
Per caput production (kg.) 9/217.4203.2202.7196.3195.8-0.2
Cereal imports 2/80.277.784.081.877.3-5.5
of which: Food aid deliveries 3/7.17.66.46.7  
Proportion of cereal import (percentage) 
covered by food aid8.99.87.68.2  
       
Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data.
1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ For wheat and coarse grains, trade refers to exports based on the July/June marketing season. For rice, trade refers to exports based on the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June. 4/ Stock data are based on an aggregate of individual country carryovers at the end of national crop years and, therefore, do not represent world stock levels at any point in time. 5/ Average of quotations for January-October 2003. 6/ Change from the corresponding period of the previous year, for which figures are not shown. 7/ Average of quotations for July-October 2003. 8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$1 435 in 2001). 9/ Including milled rice.

Previous pageTable Of ContentsNext page

 

 Economic and Social Department

About us

Disclaimer

©FAO, 2003