FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT

MISSION TO ETHIOPIA

12 January 2004

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. Socio-economic context
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003
• 4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION
• 5. Food Supply Situation

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 5 November to 6 December 2003 to estimate the meher season cereal and pulse production, forecast the 2004 belg season production, assess the overall food supply situation and estimate grain import requirements, including food aid needs, for the 2004 marketing year. Accompanied by experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and split into six teams, the Mission visited all regions. Parallel to the crop assessment teams but spread over a longer period, over 20 teams led by the government’s Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) and comprising WFP, other United Nations agencies, bilateral donor agencies and NGOs visited marginal localities and vulnerable zones and districts (woredas) to determine their current and prospective food security situation.

The assessment teams obtained planted area and yield data for all major food crops from woreda-, zone- and regional-level agricultural bureaus, which were cross-checked against information from farmers, traders, NGO and donor project staff and remote-sensed data from early warning systems. Crop inspections, spot-check crop cutting, market surveys, livestock condition observations, and transect recordings of crops and their conditions were conducted en route. Initial yield forecasts were thus finely adjusted to take into account broader, more up-to-date information.

The overall agricultural performance in Ethiopia in 2003 was much better than last year, primarily as the result of favourable weather conditions that began with a good belg season throughout the country and culminated in rains that continued until October in many places. There were also greater incentives to invest following higher prices since November 2002. More specifically, after a good belg harvest of some 500 000 tonnes of cereal and pulses, an early start to the meher season allowed timely land-preparation routines, promoted the sowing of heavier-yielding, late maturing maize and sorghum crops in favour of short-cycle crops, encouraged early sowing of the short cycle cereals and pulses and encouraged farmers to invest in inputs that resulted in increases in improved seed and fertilizer use by about 600 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

In 46 of the 59 zones and special woredas visited by the Mission this year, evenly distributed rainfall during the season eliminated any necessity for replanting, positively affected vegetative growth, encouraged the use of top-dressing and supported seed-set and grain-fill. As these positive effects were noted to be almost universal, the major cereal producing zones in the central plateau have returned to high levels of production. Unfortunately, the demand for fertilizers, as evidenced by the emergence of a parallel market with prices at double the official rates, rapidly depleted supply in the major surplus producing areas, limiting the advantages gained. Other staple and cash crops such as enset, sweet potatoes, coffee, cotton and chat are noted to have performed as expected.

Cereal and pulse production this season was comparatively pest and disease free. Minor outbreaks of armyworm early in the season were effectively controlled by local agricultural bureaus and regular rainfall. Non-migratory pest infestations, although present throughout the country, were mostly mild with the exception of sorghum chafer in the east and red teff worm in the north-central zones. Birds and weeds were also noted as pests and these required major labour inputs this year so that heavy losses could be avoided.

Much better rainfall in the central highlands and in the northeastern pastoral areas resulted in increased availability of forage and water, which improved the condition of the livestock condition and decreased mortality rates of young stock, making early, unseasonable migration of herds and flocks unnecessary. Pastoral areas in Somali did not share similar benefits and are still undergoing water and forage shortages with associated difficulties.

Following the poor harvest in 2002/03, grain prices rose sharply and have remained high compared to the same period last year owing to a reduced supply on the market. However, with prospects of a good crop this year, prices are expected to decline when the full harvest reaches the market. Such severe price volatility is hurting producers as well as consumers, and the need for effective price stabilization cannot be overemphasized. In this regard, the Mission recommends local purchase as the main tool for securing cereals and pulses for food aid programmes in the coming year.

Overall, the Mission estimates total pulse and cereal production at about 13.3 million tonnes, comprising 13.05 million tonnes from the meher harvest and a predicted 300 000 tonnes from the belg harvest in 2004. At this level, cereal and pulse production is about 46 percent above last year’s Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) post-harvest estimates and 11 percent above the average for the past five years. As a result, cereal imports in 2004 are estimated at about 210 000 tonnes, with commercial imports forecast at 50 000 tonnes and food aid in pipeline and pledges currently amounting to 160 000 tonnes.

For 2004, it has been estimated that 7.2 million people will require assistance to meet their minimum food requirements, while 2.2 million more will require close monitoring (i.e. they do not need immediate food assistance, but have been identified during the assessments as under stress and warranting close monitoring). The population in need of assistance varies from month to month; numbers peak in mid-year. Relief food requirements for 2004 are estimated at 980 000 tonnes, mainly for general ration distribution but also including food for supplementary rations and food for emergency school feeding. Part of the requirements could be met with cash provided directly to beneficiaries as "cash-for-relief" or "cash-for-work".

Inadequate household food security, poor access to health facilities, inadequate water supplies, lack of knowledge of nutrition and health, poor maternal and child care, prevalence of infectious disease, and malaria and HIV/AIDs are all contributing to relatively high levels of malnutrition and mortality among children in Ethiopia. Under-five mortality is estimated to be 166/1000 live births, and recent analysis has indicated that 58 percent of all under-five deaths in Ethiopia stem directly from malnutrition.

There are around five million people in Ethiopia who are chronically food insecure, and even in a good year they rely partially on food aid to meet their minimum food needs. The government, in conjunction with the international community, is developing a programme for meeting and ultimately alleviating the recurring needs of the food-insecure population.

2. Socio-economic context

2.1 Macroeconomic situation¹

The Ethiopian economy is highly dependent on agriculture, which contributes to about 45 percent of GDP, followed by 43 percent from the service sector and 12 percent from the industrial sector.

The external sector posted favourable development in 2002/03: the overall balance of payment recorded a surplus of US$242.2 million compared with a deficit of US$70.5 million in 2000/01. However, compared to last year, the surplus in the overall balance declined by US$113.2 million because of lower disbursements and higher amortization and turn around in short-term capital from an inflow of US$7.8 million in 2001/02 to an outflow of US$60.9 million in 2002/03.

Furthermore, the current account deficit narrowed significantly to US$178 million in 2002/03 vis-à-vis US$361 million in 2001/02, which partially offset the widening deficit in the balance of trade. The trade deficit has increased from US$1 243 million in 2001/02 to US$1 374 million in 2000/03. The increase in the trade deficit is due mainly to a significant surge in import payments which offset the slight improvement in exports.

The level of international reserves as of June 2003 indicates that the country's capacity to import goods and services has improved to reach 4.5 months next year, compared to 2 and 3.5 months of import in fiscal years 2000/01 and 2001/02, respectively.

The external debt at the end of June 2003 stood at over US$6.794 billion or 106.8 percent of GDP compared to US$6.3 billion or 102.4 percent of GDP last year. This ratio is by far greater than the ratio of 64.3 percent for sub-Saharan countries in 2002. However, with the debt relief obtained under the HIPC Initiative, Ethiopia’s external debt servicing as a percent of exports of goods and services has continued to decline from 21.1 percent in FY 2000/01 to 14.7 percent in FY 2001/02 and further to 13.7 percent in 2002/03. The exchange rate over the past three years has remained relatively stable, varying between US$1=Birr 8.33 in FY2000/01 to US$1=Birr 8.54 in FY 2001/02 and US$1=Birr 8.58 in FY 2002/03.

Table 1. Ethiopia: key economic indicators, 2000–2003

a. US$ are in millions.
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia.    Table note: Data cover year ending June 30.

Ethiopia’s major agricultural export commodities are coffee, pulses, oilseeds and chat (Table 2). Other exports include sugar and molasses, leather and leather products, live animals, canned meat and frozen foods, fruits and vegetables, gold, etc. Notwithstanding the 2002 drought and the continued fall in the international prices of major export commodities, export revenues increased by 6.7 percent to US$482.7 million in 2002/03 compared with earnings of US$452.3 million in 2001/02.

Table 2. Ethiopia: major commodity exports (2000–2003)

Source: Customs Authority, National Bank of Ethiopia, Coffee and Tea Authority.   
Note: Data cover year ending June 30.

Coffee export earnings increased by 1.3 percent and stood at US$165.3 million in 2002/03 compared to the previous year, mainly from a 14.3 percent increase in the volume of coffee exported: exports registered a record high of 126 000 tonnes while the price of coffee declined by 11.5 percent. Export earnings from pulses, on the other hand, declined by about 39 percent in 2002/03 compared to the previous year. This was mainly because of sluggish world demand compared to last year’s rise in demand associated with floods that hit Australia, the main producer and supplier of pulses to Pakistan and India.

Earnings from oilseeds improved substantially from rises both in the quantity exported and in the international price. On the other hand, although the international price of chat stagnated, the 17 percent increase in the export volume has contributed to an improvement in total receipts.

Total imports increased by 8.9 percent from US$1 696 million in 2001/02 to US$1 856 million in 2002/03. The major import commodities in 2002/03 were semi-finished goods (US$274.6 million), petroleum products (US$287.7 million), machinery and transport equipment (US$549.5 million) and consumer goods (US$654.3 million).

Though Official Development Assistance (ODA) for Ethiopia steadily increased in magnitude from US$0.6 billion in 1997 to about US$1.9 billion in 2003, the country still has the lowest aid per capita (on average US$12.8 for the period 1997–2001) when compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa and least developed countries (LDCs) with averages of US$22.6 and $21.3, respectively.

2.2 Population

The population of Ethiopia for mid-year 2004 is estimated at 71.066 million comprising 59.867 million rural (84 percent) and 11.199 million urban (16 percent), respectively. These estimates are based on the 1994 population and housing census of Ethiopia conducted by the Central Statistical Authority under the auspices of the Office of the Population and Housing Census Commission in 1994 which were released in June 1998. The overall annual population growth rate is estimated at 2.8 percent.

Table 3. Ethiopia: Total population size by region and by sex in 2004 (‘000)

Source: 1994 Population and Housing Census of Ethiopia: Results at country level, Volume I, Statistical Report, Addis Ababa, June 1998.

2.3 Agricultural sector

Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic activity, contributing about 45 percent of GDP with some 84 percent of the population earning a living directly or indirectly from agricultural activities.

The sector is nearly totally dependent on rainfall, with only 2 percent of the total arable land being irrigated. In addition, low fertilizer use, susceptibility to pest and disease outbreaks and extensive highland soil erosion have meant high variability in year-to-year agricultural production, which is predominantly in the hands of peasant holdings. Indeed, the significant improvements in agricultural production in 2000 and 2001 were reversed in 2002 with very poor agricultural performances, primarily caused by unfavourable weather conditions and low producer incentives to invest after two years of depressed grain prices. Such high variability in agricultural production increases food risks. Consequently, food insecurity in the country has become a growing problem because the number of people in need of food aid has been increasing continuously for the past decade.

The relatively low performance of agriculture in Ethiopia is not the result of just technical constraints: price policies and the institutional environment also play a significant role. Indeed, the volatility of prices for agricultural products could seriously constrain production and adversely affect farm income, particularly when prices collapse in periods of bumper harvest.

On the institutional side, the prevailing land tenure system in Ethiopia and the constraints concerning transferability of land rights, coupled with high population growth in the rural areas, will continue to induce disincentives for land investment leading to poor agricultural performance.

2.3.1 Agricultural input credit

The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) is the largest source of agricultural credit in the country. During the current cropping year (2003/04), CBE approved a total of 780 million Birr of agricultural input loans based on credit requests submitted by the regional governments of Oromia, Amhara, SNNP, Tigray, Addis Ababa and Harari. Table 4 presents the total agricultural input credit approved, disbursed and overdue for the past five years.

Table 4. Total agricultural input credit approved, disbursed and overdue (1999–2004)

Source: The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, 2003.
a. Amount disbursed as of October 31, 2003.

The amount of agricultural credit that has been approved by CBE for the cropping year 2003/04 is about 43 percent higher than in 2002/03 and the highest for the last five cropping years. The credit repayment default rate has almost doubled since 1999/2000 to 13 percent for the cropping year 2002/03. The higher default rates are largely attributed to depressed grain prices for the 2001/02 cropping year and the poor grain production in 2002/03, which meant that farmers were not able to pay back their earlier debts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the default rate will decline in the coming year in the context of expected good crop production levels. Furthermore, the regional governments in their capacity as guarantors of agricultural input loans are implementing measures to reschedule part of the past-due loans.

Starting March 2002, CBE has also taken steps to increase the attractiveness of these loans by reducing the effective interest rate from 10.5 percent to 7.5 percent. Now CBE will receive 5.25 percent interest instead of 7.5 percent on the disbursed amounts, and the regional governments will continue to receive 2.25 percent of the interest for loan disbursement, recovery and administrative charges.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003

3.1 General

In Ethiopia, of the 11.4 million ha presently farmed to all crops, only some 190 000 ha are irrigated. Consequently, production varies considerably from year to year depending on the quality and quantity of the annual rains. The crops grown are diverse and reflect the complicated mosaic of agro-ecologies derived from soil types ranging from vertisol to sand and cropping altitudes ranging from more than 3 000 m to less than 600 m above sea level. The main cereal staples include wheat, barley, teff (Eragrostis abyssinica), finger millet, maize and sorghum grown in varying proportions according to soils, altitude and the prevailing climatic and market conditions of the year. Other carbohydrate sources include the stem of enset or false-banana (Enset ventriculosum), cassava, potatoes and sweet potatoes, all of which are found in either the middle altitude or in the highland areas of the south-central regions of the country. Cash crops include oilseeds, spices, coffee, chat and eucalyptus, the latter crops being found as hedgerows, in woodlots on the farms and in forests in the middle altitude and highland areas as well.

Common grasslands provide extensive pasture and browse for livestock in most regions, but are particularly important to livestock producers in the eastern regions of Afar and Somali, the southern zones of Bale, Borena and South Omo, and in the western lowlands that reach from Gambella to Tigray. National livestock production, mainly from these pastoral areas, is augmented by settled agro-pastoralist peasant farmers throughout the Central Plateau and the escarpments of the Rift Valley, who produce sheep, goats and – less frequently – dairy cow products for sale and home use. Livestock are further integrated into the farms through the universal use of animal traction for ploughing, secondary cultivation, threshing and the transportation of goods and commodities.

3.2 Rainfall 2003

Rain in Ethiopia falls in two distinct seasons: the belg, a minor season that usually begins in January–February and ends in April–May and the meher or kiremt, the main rainy season, which starts in June–July and ends in September–October. In about ten zones, belg rains are regularly sufficient enough to support a belg harvest which may, in a good year, account for 5 percent of national cereal production. Elsewhere, belg rains offer the opportunity for land preparation and improve pasture and browse after the dry season. The melding of belg and meher rains in the southwest zones often generates one long season without clear-cut breaks, which although good for perennial crops and the long-maturing stover cereal varieties, is less than ideal for the early maturing grains.

This year, the belg rains were generally good; pocket areas such as South Tigray had poor rainfall but were the exception. The Mission notes that SPOT-4 Vegetation Indices in March and April show a better performance in the belg crop growing zones than in the past four years, which is reflected in the belg harvest returns given in Section 3.2 below. In non-belg crop growing areas, which comprise more of the overall agricultural area, there was more vegetative growth early in the year than in the three previous years, indicative of the better rainfall distribution pattern. In late May and early June, a poorer pattern of vegetative growth was noted in several administrative zones in west Oromiya and Benshangul, reflecting dry spells between belg and a late-starting meher, but these differences were no longer evident in July and August.

The six Mission teams dispatched throughout the country to determine agriculture production and conditions collected qualitative and quantitative meher season rainfall data from all the zones and woredas visited. The combined returns confirm that in 57 of the 59 zones and special woredas identified as Mission entry points, rains were considered to be much better than last year, the two exceptions being Jijiga and Shinile in Somali Region, where the visiting team noted that last years’ rains were considered to have been more favourable in both quantity and distribution. In 46 Mission entry points, the 2003 meher rains were considered to have been “normal,” that is to say, they conformed to the expected pattern, they began on time, they were evenly distributed during the season and they either finished on time or later than expected. Only in 13 zones/special woredas were less-than-satisfactory reports filed. These reports included late starts, breaks of 10 to 20 days during the main season and early finishes. Such sites are located mostly in the south, in a cluster of traditionally belg-producing areas around Gedeo and Amaro; and in the east/northeast, conforming to the traditional pattern of rainfall security, which improves in a northeast to southwest direction.

Despite the variable nature of the rainfall inherent in the semi-arid areas of Ethiopia, which means that in any zone and in any year there are always communities that will experience a less-than-satisfactory season, the 2003 meher rains may be characterized as having been reasonably well distributed. The timely start encouraged the sowing of long-cycle crops, supported germination and vegetative development of all cereals and pulses and, in most areas, the main season continued to provide adequate moisture at flowering and grain fill. The continuation of the rains into October–November encouraged late, opportunistic planting of short-cycle crops and supported their development, adding a further positive aspect to the season. Heavy rains in December that fell after the Mission departed have (at the time of reporting) had mixed effects. In western Oromiya, southern Amhara and SNNPR there were adverse effects on teff, wheat and barley that had not yet been harvested at the time; however, late-planted crops benefited. In Tigray, harvesting campaigns conducted as a precaution against possible storm-related losses, meant that all vulnerable crops were secured before the rains began. Elsewhere in the north, the harvests of short-cycle crops were either completed or well-advanced at the time of the Mission, or – as is the case of very late planted barley and pulses throughout Awi zone – can only benefit from the precipitation.

Regarding the effect of rainfall on pasture and browse, the good belg rain and timely start to the meher season improved the availability of an early bite compared to last year in most areas. The well-distributed rains and their prolongation have increased forage production and improved water supply in all areas except the southeast where, until recently, the November–December rain is reported to be erratic and poorly distributed geographically. Consequently, no incidents of untypical or unseasonable migration were noted by the Mission teams between regions or zones, and only in Somali was such movement being anticipated for the near future if the rains did not improve. The mid-December heavy rains in the south, southeast and northeast of the country can therefore be said to have been highly beneficial for herders and grazers.

3.3 Area planted

Mission estimates for areas planted are derived from several sources. These include data collected by Bureau of Agriculture (BOA) Development Agents (DA) based at Peasants’ Association (PA) level throughout the country, and data collected by the Mission teams from farming companies, investors and any state farms that are still in operation. Historically, the data from the first source are passed from DA to District (woreda) level, where they are collated, reviewed and presented forward to the agricultural offices at zone level for further aggregation and review. Prior to 2002, the CFSAM entry point were the Zonal Agricultural Bureaus, which offered the opportunity for a complete national coverage through a practical number (50–60) of contact points that had both data and a critical mass of informed specialists who were aware of the prevailing agricultural conditions in their zones through visits to the woreda offices, PAs and farms. Under the policy of administrative decentralization in Amhara, Oromiya and SNNPR, the Zonal Agricultural Bureaus have been reduced to agricultural desks, staffed by single officers with few resources and even fewer opportunities to travel within their domains. In Tigray, the Zonal Agricultural Bureaus have been dissolved, and direct links from woreda to region have been established. Consequently, this year, as was the case last year, CFSAM team entry points varied from place to place. In order to maintain the time series and to cross-check the validity of information received, Mission teams constructed zone sets of data where necessary either using information from the woredas themselves or from sets of woreda returns collected at regional level.

Further, it should be noted that this year the Woreda Agricultural Bureaus and the Zonal Agricultural Desks in Amhara Region were given recommendations by the Regional Agricultural Bureau to use forecasts issued by the Central Statistics Authority as a basis for their meher crop estimates. This parallel data set is based on markedly different area estimates resulting from the recent 2001/02 Agricultural Sample Census, which are not considered by the other major producing regions to describe either their agricultural areas or the proportional distribution of crops grown. In all but two Amhara zones, namely South Gondar and North Shewa, the agricultural staff have opted to retain their previous time series; however the inclusion of new area data from the two above-mentioned zones reduces the Amhara area planted to cereals and pulses by 7 percent or 215 000 ha. The implications connected to using CSA area data as an alternative parameter in grain balance calculations are therefore very great, as is shown in Table 5, which compares cereal and pulse area estimates for the main producing regions. Given the practical nature of land redistribution that took place between 1975 and 1995 particularly in Tigray and Amhara, it is difficult to understand why BOA farm area estimates, which are based on aggregated PA data, should be wildly inaccurate. Consequently, the Mission recommends that sample PAs in each zone in all four regions, be accurately measured and the results compared with the two estimates to determine the closest fit. In the meantime, it seems that the Mission should continue to use the same source to maintain an effective comparator from year to year.

Table 5. CSA forecasts 2003 vs. BOA area estimates 2003 x100 percent

Based on BOA data, with the two exceptions noted above, the Mission estimates that the National area planted to cereals and pulses during the 2003 meher season is 11.1 million ha, which is similar to last years‘ post harvest estimate of 11.0 million ha. Similarly derived estimates for this year’s belg season suggest that this year’s meher planting follows a more widely planted belg crop than in 2002 at an estimated 624 000 ha in 16 zones. Maintaining the meher season area, therefore, reflects more planting generally this year through a reduction in the extensive fallowing noted last year in SNNPR (where meher cereal area this year reached, for the first time in eight years, the levels achieved in 1996) as well as the opening of new lands by both investors and settlers.

Closer examination of major cereal areas at national level reveals that maize area in 2003 increased by 11 percent or 200 000 ha, thus significantly reversing the decline of 245 000 ha noted last year. However, the national area planted to maize has not yet reached the levels achieved in 2001.

National sorghum area increased by 16 percent or 240 000 ha, more than compensating for last year’s 146 000 ha decrease in area, whereas teff and the total pulse crop showed national area reductions of 6–7 percent, such combinations confirming the anticipated, early-rain induced movement to early-planted, long-cycle crops from late-planted, short-maturing grain crops in the middle altitude and lowland areas where maize/pulse and maize/teff options exist.

At the same time, the barley and wheat returns indicate at national level a 2 percent increase and a 1 percent fall in area respectively, suggesting less flexibility in core growing areas. Although significant downward shifts are apparent in Amhara (barley and wheat both down 14 percent, with concomitant increases in maize and sorghum areas) and Oromiya (barley down 6 percent), the returns from the former region are confounded by the adoption of CSA data in two zones, North Shoa and South Gondar, which exhibited 30 percent and 40 percent falls in both crops, respectively.

A return to greater maize areas in SNNPR (an increase of 80 000 ha or 18 percent) has been analysed by the Mission as associated with better financial returns from maize production last year. In SNNPR maize is the second staple; where maize is grown, most farm families eat enset. Therefore, despite fairly similar farm sizes to the peasant farms in Oromiya, the remarkably high level of carbohydrate production from well-established enset gardens at around a minimum of 130 tonnes fresh weight to the hectare, releases the maize crop for sale. Maize also has the advantage of an early, green-cob market that provides a lucrative income when early rains are favourable, as was the case this year. As an effective cash crop, financial returns from maize influence planting decisions more strongly than where maize is needed mostly for subsistence. Teff provides a readily available substitute for maize, being agro-ecologically interchangeable and having a firmer recent price history, but it requires more tedious hand labour to harvest and thresh.

Countrywide, given the return to expected levels in areas of cultivation for a generally favourable rainy season, there appear not to have been any widespread constraints on ploughing capability. However, in the wetter areas, where the small size of the farms precludes the effective use of the normal tractors but where timeliness of cultivation, sowing and weeding is of paramount importance for the production of a satisfactory series of crops to achieve food security, the general lack of alternative power sources (oxen), suggests the need to consider the introduction of the diesel engine, two-wheeled hand-tractor for cooperative use in such areas, to improve the efficiency of land use.

Following last year’s poor harvest, the combined forces of government, NGOs, FAO and bi/multilateral agencies mounted a countrywide initiative to ensure that seed supply would not be a constraint during this year’s meher planting. Interventions including the provision of improved seeds, local seeds and the provision of cash for local purchase of seeds were noted; judging by area of cereals and pulses harvested, the initiative appears to have been successful. Given that some 650 000 tonnes of seed grains are estimated to be needed each year, most seed sown comes from farmer-saved stocks carried over from year to year. However, returns from the National Agricultural Input Suppliers’ Association show that this year improved seed sales increased approximately seven-fold to 21 000 tonnes.

3.4 Factors affecting yields

National average cereal and pulse yields this year were estimated to be 46 percent higher than last year. Calculated from Mission adjusted BOA data at 1.18 t/ha and 0.80 t/ha respectively, they include a range of regional averages from 0.4 t/ha to 3.0 t/ha according to crop and location. Such averages compare favourably with averages estimated over the past five years and are far better than last year, reflecting the improved performance of all crops in almost all localities except Jijiga and a cluster of five special woredas in SNNPR (Durashe, Amaro,Yem, Burji and Konso) that are predominantly belg producers.³

Presently, under the prevailing BOA system, yields are assessed by woreda specialists at pre-harvest and post-harvest stages for all field crops. Such data are then transferred to the zone or regional desks for review, analysis and onward passage. Because of the timing of the exercise, the Mission teams usually receive only the earlier yield assessments, which are then adjusted by Mission teams with the assistance of the key informants to take into account field observations, measurements and any changing conditions regarding the weather and late pest and disease problems. Such assessments are subject to rigorous review when the Mission teams return to base. At this stage, assessed performance is compared with seed types, extent and timing of fertilizer use, the season’s pest and disease profile, the performance of similar crops in neighbouring localities, time-series data and any other assessments available for the zone.

This year, 97 percent of the seeds used were local seeds carried over from the previous harvest. In the surplus areas, such seeds are mostly open-pollinated releases from government seed agencies that have stabilized over the past two decades, acquiring a local identity reflecting their provenance. In the more marginal areas, in addition to these seeds, local land races are also in evidence and are exchanged/sold between farm families as needed. This year, seed assistance programmes enhanced local redistribution and increased the availability of improved seed for general use. Although the programmes were not without problems, the Mission noted incidents of late delivery and of alleged mistakes in supply, the overall goal to establish seed security in a poor supply year was achieved.

Given the favourable rainfall, no widespread replanting was necessary, and the continuation of the rainfall meant that where replanting did occur, the rains supported the growth and development of the replacement crop as well as the main crops in most areas, reinforcing the role of rainfall as the single most important determinant regarding crop performance in Ethiopia.

Reversing the trend noted by the Mission in the past three reports, fertilizer use as indicated by cash and credit sales increased by around 17 percent to 271 000 tonnes, similar to the level supplied in 2001. At the same time, demand for both DAP and urea increased through the season as the favourable rains and available seeds encouraged farmers to expand and/or invest. Unfortunately, demand appears to have outstripped supply, generating conditions for the emergence of a black market in fertilizer. Consequently, the Mission notes that despite official prices of fertilizers being held at levels similar to last year at around 260 to 300 birr per quintal according to delivery costs, fertilizers were sold at prices up to 550 birr per quintal in zones in SNNPR and Amhara. Notwithstanding the foregoing statement, fertilizer distribution to the regions was very similar to the distribution during the meher season in 2000/01. Tigray received the lowest share at 5 percent (4 percent in 2000/01); Amhara 29 percent (29 percent); Oromiya 44 percent (50 percent); SNNPR 8 percent (11 percent) and the remainder – 13 percent (8 percent in 2000/01) – was sold to farmers in the remaining regions and to various commercial enterprises.

Of the 21 000 tonnes of improved seed sold, it was noted that 6 000 tonnes were maize and 14 000 tonnes wheat. It is anticipated that 12 percent of the maize seed and 8 percent of the wheat seed sown this year was thus improved, with a concomitant effect on cereal yield. Noting the increase in fertilizer use, this connects to a possible 720 000 tonne increase in the overall maize harvest and a possible 200 000 tonne increase in wheat (based conservatively on 3 t/ha increments from 240 000 ha and 2 t/ha increments from 100 000 ha, respectively).

Regarding pests and diseases, the only migratory pest noted was armyworm. The caterpillars made brief appearances in ten zones early in the season, but were controlled by a combination of cultural practices, limited knapsack spraying and rain. It is noted that Quelea quelea birds were identified as pests in Borena and Guraghe, but they were reported to the Mission as minor, easily controlled incidents.

Non-migratory pests of significance this year include sorghum chafers in East Tigray, the eastern zones of Amhara and the Oromiya zones bordering Afar Region; red teff worm, stalk borers, termites, bollworms and birds. Controlling these latter by scaring them off places a heavy and hitherto underestimated demand on household labour, particularly in sorghum growing areas, if heavy losses are to be avoided.

Storage pests, especially weevils, are noted as a cause for concern through the country but they are particularly important in the wetter southwestern zones, where stored maize losses are noted to be as high as 40 percent in good rainfall years. This year an increased interest in the use of storage chemicals was reported; however, no sales figures were available to confirm their improved availability. The adverse effects of crop diseases were mild, with no noted significant incidents of rust on barley or wheat. The presence of sorghum smut was identified by Mission teams in the fields of South Wollo and South Tigray, but was seen to be of very little concern to the farmers whose fields were infested. No seed treatment is carried out, so the widespread sorghum-producing areas are vulnerable to this problem.

Weed competition was fierce this year, as the well-distributed rains enhanced plant growth generally. The Mission teams noted an increase in frequency of hand-weeding of most crops in all regions, and more reports of shillshallo or animal-powered thinning of maize and sorghum crops, followed by inter-row cultivation, were evident this year. There was also an apparent increase in the use of herbicides. The Mission notes the use of 2.4 D by farmers as diverse as investors in West Tigray (where labour rates reached an all time high of 30 birr per day), wheat farmers in Arsi and Bale, teff farmers in Jimma and mixed cereal farmers in East Gojjam, the common elements linking their choice being the vigorous growth of weeds and a shortage of labour.

The positive factors noted above and the well-distributed rainfall explain the overall improvement in crop performance manifested by the universal increase in yields compared to last year for all cereal and pulses. These are considered by the Mission to be due to (a) the direct effects of well-distributed rainfall on crop growth and development, (b) the indirect effects of the belg rains offering the opportunity for timely pre-season cultivation, (c) early starts to the meher season in the main surplus producing areas that encouraged farmers to invest in inputs, (d) a seven-fold increase in the sale of improved seeds and (e) better financial returns to cereal growers last year.

3.5 Other crops

Crops contributing to household food security vary from north to south and from east to west. In the north, oilseeds, particularly nug and sesame, are important for both peasant farmers and commercial producers. In 2003 national sesame area increased by 12 percent to 189 965 ha, of which 81 000 ha were noted to be commercial plantings in West Tigray. Nug area in 2003 was estimated at 386 000 ha, suggesting an increase of 10 percent mostly as the result of increased planting in Oromiya Region.

Given the diverse nature and generally favourable conditions for plant growth of the southern half of the country, a greater range of other crops contribute to household economy. In SNNPR and Oromiya, crops other than cereals and pulses occupy 12 percent and 32 percent, respectively, of the planted area compared to 3 percent and 7 percent in Amhara and Tigray. The importance of enset among these other crops, which provides the main carbohydrate staple for some 8 million people and makes a substantial contribution to the diet of an additional 4 million people, is clear. Data from southern zones indicate an estimated enset area of 117 000 ha this year, which is some 6 percent larger than last year, suggesting either increased planting or reduced use of trees in the enset orchards. Enset condition is noted to be good, with yields at normal levels. Annual roots and tubers, mostly in the same agro-ecological zones as enset, are also performing well, with sweet potato yields of 15 t–30 t/ha recorded during a separate study by Mission team members at the end of the belg season this year.

Coffee production in 2003 is expected to remain below average and similar to last year, according to the Coffee and Tea Authority specialists interviewed by Mission teams, at 205 000 tonnes. Growing conditions during the year were good in all zones except for the cluster of special woredas around Gedeo, where prolonged dry spells affected the performance. Coffee berry disease remains a serious problem except where trees have been replaced by resistant varieties through government-supported nursery programmes.

Production of the other industrial field crops such as tea, sugar cane and cotton and of chat, a mild narcotic cash crop grown throughout the southern half of the country in small backyard plots, is reported better in 2003 than in the previous year from more favourable conditions.

3.6 Livestock

Ethiopia has the largest livestock inventories in Africa: more than 35 million cattle and 40 million small ruminants, 1 million camels and 8 million equines. Livestock ownership currently supports and sustains the livelihoods of an estimated 80 percent of the rural poor. In the extensive, most drought-prone arid and semi-arid grazing areas in the eastern, western and southern lowlands, cattle, sheep, goats, and camels are managed in migratory pastoral production systems. In the highlands, where 75 percent of the livestock population is found, cattle provide draught power for the mixed farming system.

Last year’s drought reportedly reduced livestock inventories in some parts of the country, notably Afar, by nearly 50 percent. The industry is recovering, and more availability of pasture has provided enhanced livestock body condition in most areas of the country. The Mission teams consider cattle body condition scores to be well above last year’s scores for stock on the central plateau and in the western lowlands. Some remaining interventions continue from last year, particularly supplementary feeding activities and vaccination by NGOs in Afar and elsewhere. No unusual disease outbreaks have been noted except concerns about internal/external parasites and reports of endemic infectious diseases such as pasteurellosis, anthrax, blackleg, CBPP, and CCPP. Trypanosomiasis is also cited as a concern in the western and southern lowlands, but the condition has not been reflected in the observed body condition scores this year. In several zones, farmer and BOA sources indicated shortages of vaccines and other veterinary pharmaceuticals at local levels, where decentralization has made it more difficult to obtain ready supplies of prophylactic and curative medicines.

Mission teams have reported only limited early migration of pastoralists in areas where water shortages and poor pastures have induced premature livestock movements: southern Borena, Haraghe, and pocket areas in Afar and Somali. While normal rainfall has been reported in most zones, pasture growth and browse in Jijiga and Shinile remain fragile and will be heavily dependent on rainfall during the coming months. In eastern parts of the Somali region, sporadic rains, water shortages and poor pastures have been inducing premature livestock movements. Extensive movement of livestock from Somalia into eastern Somali is leading to a high concentration of animals in the Warder Zone, generating reports of water sales from birkas at prices similar to those observed during the drought of 1991/92. In addition, poor pasture conditions, water shortages and military interventions are restricting cross-border trade, and the increase in unseasonable presentations at markets has caused livestock prices to fall.

Elsewhere, livestock prices are firming. In Afar, where prices plummeted last year as pastoralists liquidated drought-afflicted stock, prices are up nearly 25 percent. Better availability of feed and forage has been noted with lower prices for straw and stover. Hay, which was unobtainable at this time last year, is being sold in markets.

While conditions affecting the livestock sector in Ethiopia have improved this year, the vulnerability of the livestock sector, in particular of the pastoralists, is being reinforced by pervasive structural issues within the sector to limit access to markets and livestock services. The ban on livestock imports from Ethiopia by many of the Gulf countries since 2000 has had an adverse effect on the livelihoods of pastoralists from the Afar and Somali regions, while lack of market linkages to local abattoirs limits the market integration of local livestock economies.

Exact information is scarce regarding the use of feed grains. On the one hand, the modern poultry industry producing eggs and broilers is served by private feed mills generating some 80 000 tonnes of poultry feed per annum to accommodate an estimated 1.5 million layers and 1 600 tonnes of broilers. About 70 percent of the rations are estimated to be composed of home-grown cereals. Feed grain use in the traditional backyard poultry industry, on the other hand, is far less easily assessed. Given that the backyard chicken population has recently been estimated by MOA at 56 million birds (8 birds per household and 7 million households) and assuming that every other household feeds one menelik/wollo (0.7 kg) of home-produced cereals to the birds once a week, then the feed use is in the order of 127 000 tonnes per year. However, Mission observations suggest that both the grain ration and frequency of feeding are generally higher than what has been assumed above. In addition, cereal-based feeds are also being given in limited quantities to working equines, draught oxen at ploughing time, stock being fattened for the elite markets and to 156 000 grade and pure-bred dairy cows. Again, information on rations and frequency of feeding, outside the small modern sector, is scanty. It is understood that the bulk of the supplementary rations comes from household waste and cereal by-products, bran, mill sweepings, brewers’ grains, and oilseed cakes; however, at household level, home-grown cereals are also fed directly to livestock as cut sheaves and as grain. A further 120 000 tonnes per annum have been assessed by the Mission to cover such eventualities in 2004 when grains will be more freely available.

3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast

The CFSAM team visits coincided with all stages of the harvest from crop cutting to threshing in accordance with the crop and the geographical location. The timely start of the season, improved growing conditions and consequent performance of most long- and short-cycle cereals have resulted in noticeably better grain quality in 2003 than last year. The wide range of harvesting activities under way at the time of the Mission visits made it possible for a ready assessment of actual production per unit area to be observed by the teams. Where crops were still standing, samples were taken, threshed using local techniques and weighed to cross-check agricultural bureaus yield estimates and farmers’ production predictions. In places where harvesting had been completed, the quantities of stored grains or cobs were matched against the areas from which they had been harvested; where threshing or combining of fields had been accomplished, information was obtained directly from the harvesting contractors regarding the median yields in their areas of operation. By these methods additional information was obtained so as to adjust the estimates and predictions and to counter-balance glaring inconsistencies or supply figures for missing data. Regional totals of area and production prepared by the Mission are given by crop in Table 6. The data indicate a 2003 meher cereal harvest of 11.83 million tonnes from 9.65 million ha, 46 percent higher than last year’s post-harvest estimates. Pulses are showing a return of 1.2 million tonnes from 1.4 million ha, about 60 percent better than last year and 20 percent above the five-year average.

Time series data for the past five years are provided in Table 7 for comparison. They show that this year’s production is 10.7 percent above the running five-year national average from an average area and are similar to the production estimates of 2000/01 meher season from a slightly smaller cropped area.

Table 6. Ethiopia: area ('000 ha), production ('000 tonnes) and yield (tonnes/ha) of cereals and pulses for the 2003/04 meher season