Special Report

FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Sudan

11 February 2004

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
• 3. CEREAL PRODUCTION IN 2003/04
• 4. AGRICULTURAL SITUATION BY REGION
• 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
• 6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan from 9 to 30 October 2003 and northern Sudan from 8 November to 1 December 2003 in order to estimate cereal production and food supply and assess food aid needs from the current harvest of mainly sorghum and millet and to make an early forecast of wheat production in 2004 from areas prepared for planting. Based on these estimates of production and carryover stocks, the Mission assessed the 2003/04 cereal supply/demand including export potential and import requirements for the marketing year 2003/04 (November–October).

The Mission received the full cooperation of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and the Humanitarian Aid Commission, both of which assigned senior staff to accompany the Mission. Pre-harvest data on area and yield were provided by the State Ministries of Agriculture and the various irrigation schemes, which the Mission cross-checked during field visits and interviews with farmers, herders and traders. Discussions were also held with key informants from local government administrations, United Nations agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

In the Government-held areas of southern Sudan, location-specific information was provided by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), Action Contre la Faim (ACF), Oxfam-UK, ICRC, IRC, NCA, Sudan Council of Churches, Sudan Aid, Swedish Free Mission, Women’s Self-Help and German Agro-Action. In the rebel-held areas, the Mission obtained information from the FAO emergency units in Nairobi, Lokichokio and Rumbek, as well as from WFP staff and USAID FEWS reports. Location-specific information was provided by several NGOs, including Norwegian People’s Aid (NPA), Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Medair, World Relief, CARE, Oxfam-UK, Tear-Fund and VSF-Belgium.

Rainfall throughout most of the country was generally favourable during the 2003 cropping season, and cereal production benefited from a relatively low incidence of pests.

In northern Sudan, the areas under mechanized and traditional cropping increased significantly in 2003 in response to the good rains, and yields in both sectors were generally very satisfactory. The irrigated sector saw a further small reduction in area and a consequent drop in production. Nevertheless, aggregate production across the three sectors is considerably better than the previous year and well above the long-term average. In the west, however, the level of civil unrest increased in many parts of Darfur during the cropping season. Many farmers in the conflict affected areas were either not able to plant or to weed their fields and those who were are likely either to lose their crops to marauders’ livestock or be unable to harvest them because of security problems.

In southern Sudan, growing conditions were better than last, with generally well-distributed rainfall and a low incidence of pests. In addition, increased security has allowed the cultivation of more land in the traditional sector and a significant expansion of the area under mechanized production. Consequently, the 2003/04 cereal production will be considerably higher than that of the previous year.

Overall, generally favourable growing conditions have resulted in a record cereal crop in 2003/04 which is forecast at about 6.3 million tonnes, comprising 5 million tonnes of sorghum, 784 000 tonnes of millet, 356 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2004), 107 000 tonnes of maize and 35 000 tonnes of rice. At this level, cereal production is 63 percent larger than last year’s crop and about 47 percent above the average of the previous five years. This record cereal crop will result in ample supplies in 2003/04. Prices of cereals, mainly sorghum, have shown a sharp decline and are expected to fall further with the arrival of the bulk of the harvest on local markets.

Livestock throughout the country are generally in good condition; with the expected national surplus of grain and declining prices, the terms of trade for pastoralists have markedly improved.

Increased export earnings from oil over the past several years and continued livestock exports to countries in the Arabian Peninsula have continued to boost economic activity. Furthermore, favourable prospects for ending the long-running civil war are expected to boost the agricultural and other economic sectors in southern Sudan.

The overall food situation is therefore highly favourable: there is the possibility of increased food availability and access for a large number of vulnerable groups except in the west where the situation is less transparent. Large quantities of grain could also be exported, provided that export markets are secured, particularly in some neighbouring countries. It is also essential that the Strategic Reserve Authority replenish its stocks in a timely manner in order to ensure that prices do not fall below the cost of production.

Despite these positive developments, an estimated 3.6 million people will need food assistance amounting to 249 278 tonnes. The escalating civil conflict in the three Darfur states has already caused a massive displacements of over a million people, and access to food has been sharply curtailed. People have lost the bulk of their current harvest; if the conflict is not resolved in the next few months, it is highly probable that they will also miss the upcoming planting season and thus lose next season’s harvest as well.

In the northern Sector an estimated 1.96 million people are expected to need 177 688 tonnes of food aid. However, the three Darfur States account for about 79 percent of the total food assistance requested for the northern Sector – 1.18 million beneficiaries and 140 585 tonnes of assorted food commodities. The remaining 21 percent (37 103 tonnes) will be used to save lives, improve nutritional status and sustain the livelihoods of approximately 0.78 million people elsewhere in the country. Excluding the Darfurs, there should be a 37 percent reduction in the number of beneficiaries and 59 percent reduction in food needs compared with estimated needs in 2003.

In the southern Sector, an estimated 1.64 million people will need 71 590 tonnes of food assistance; this represents a 2 percent decline in the number of beneficiaries and an 11 percent decrease in food aid needs compared to estimates for 2003. The numbers of beneficiaries for food assistance could have been lower but the voluntary return of about 300 000 IDPs who will require food assistance in 2004 caused the estimates to be readjusted upwards. These returnees will also require agricultural inputs (seeds, hand tools, fishing equipment and support to livestock) to enable them resume their farming activities.

Preliminary analysis shows that about 400 000 IDPs and 110 000 refugees will be returning to their places of origin or choice in Sudan during the first 12 months of the implementation of the peace agreement. These individuals are currently not covered by any WFP assistance, but it is expected that they will require food aid en-route, return packages and community based assistance at their places of return (seeds, hand tools, fishing equipment and support to livestock).

2. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

For much of the period after independence, from the late 1960s to the early 1990s, Sudan approached economic development through an expanded role for the state, both as investor and manager of enterprises. Beginning in 1969, the majority of private enterprises were nationalized, and interventionist policies such as price controls and credit and exchange rate restrictions were introduced. These policies, together with the cost of war, mainly in southern Sudan, contributed to the subsequent decline of the Sudanese economy. In the period from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, huge fiscal and balance-of-payment deficits, runaway inflation, difficult living conditions and the emigration of professional and skilled Sudanese mainly to the Gulf countries characterized the economic situation of this country.

A serious implementation of economic reforms began in the mid-1990s. The results of the reforms were evident in four main areas: the role of the state was reduced and that of the private sector increased; price and market controls were relaxed and incentives for production restored; the economy was stabilized and inflation dropped substantially from 130 percent in 1996 to 4.9 percent in 2001; and economic growth started up once again. GDP grew on average by 3.8 percent per annum during 1990–1995 and then accelerated to an average of 6.6 percent per annum during 1996–2000. The corresponding annual growth rate in income per caput was 4 percent during the period 1996–2000. Average annual income per caput was US$359 in 2001.

Oil exports have significantly boosted the Sudanese economy and triggered large changes in both the macro-economic environment and Sudan’s external position and relations. Oil exports rose from zero in 1998 to US$1 269 million in 2001, when they accounted for 75 percent of exports. In 2000, as a result of oil-export earnings, external trade figures registered a surplus for the first time in more than 20 years of US$440 million; this figure fell back slightly in 2001 to 304 million. Oil revenue in the first half of 2002 amounted to US$709 million. Oil exports in 2004 are expected to drop by 19 percent as a result of a decline in oil prices. Consequently, the current-account deficit will widen, increasing further in 2005 to US$1.5 billion (7 percent of GDP). Real growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.9 percent by 2005.

The agricultural sector continues to be the main source of sustained growth and the backbone of Sudan’s economy in terms of contribution to GDP: the share of agriculture in total GDP was estimated at 37 percent in the early 1980s. As agriculture declined in importance between the mid-1980s and early 1990s, contribution to GDP fell to 28 percent; however, it recovered to about 39.1 percent in 2002. Agriculture remains the main source of employment and household income in rural areas, where 65 percent of the population is to be found. Moreover, about 80 percent of the labour force is employed in agricultural and agro-related industries. The volume of agricultural exports increased during the 1990s with an annual growth ranging from 6–34 percent for gum arabic and cotton thread, respectively. Sesame exports overtook both groundnuts and cotton as traditional agricultural exports during the 1990s. In 2000, sesame exports earned US$145 million. In 2001, agricultural exports accounted for 25 percent of total exports compared to 96 percent in 1990. This sharp reduction has been attributed mainly to an increase in oil exports. Livestock exports are expected to regain their 1990s position, following last year’s lifting of the Gulf countries’ ban on animal imports from Sudan in 2000.

Foreign exchange reserves in terms of this year’s (2004) imports have increased from 0.3 months in 1999 to 1.7 months in 2003. However, widespread poverty, skewed income distribution and inadequate delivery of social services remain serious problems. Peace is a necessary precondition for the reduction of poverty and improvement of food security, but it is not the only one. Enormous investments are needed for the reconstruction and development of the country and, despite increases in government revenues, will require external financing. However, the prospects for external financing are uncertain because Sudan is a heavily indebted poor country (HIPC) that has struggled with a high and rising external debt since the late 1970s. The current debt is estimated at about US$21.1 billion – most of which is on non-concessional terms and in arrears. In net present-value terms, the debt is about 10 times the value of exports (including oil), 14 times the value of government revenue (including oil) and 135 percent of the GDP. Following any peace agreement, it is essential that immediate action be taken to facilitate clearance of arrears and access to HIPC-debt relief and concessional financing on favourable terms.

The vast size of the country and its fragile ecological systems make particular demands on transport facilities, communications and other infrastructure services. Low public investment in rural areas results in major constraints to rural producers: the distances are long from major producing areas to large urban markets. Improved road networks will definitely reduce marketing costs and result in higher incomes for producers and lower prices for consumers. Improved roads will also facilitate access to social services, especially health and education.

Funding for public investments in infrastructure and the delivery of basic services for agricultural development has remained minimal. Total annual development expenditures averaged only 2.3 percent of GDP during 1998–2001; the share of agriculture, irrigation, water supply and transport averaged only 1.1 percent. Expenditures in the development budget for agriculture, transport services and water averaged 0.63 percent of GDP during 1998–2002. It is recommended that public resources be reallocated from the non-agriculture to the agriculture sector, that social services remain protected; and that public expenditures within agriculture be reallocated away from subsidized irrigation schemes toward pro-poor services such as agricultural research and extension in the rainfed areas where the majority of the poor reside.

3. CEREAL PRODUCTION IN 2003/04

3.1 Main factors affecting production in 2003

3.1.1 Agricultural finance and credit

The provision of short-term agricultural credit for the irrigated and mechanized rainfed sectors has in general been good this year. According to the Agricultural Bank of Sudan, lending has increased by 25 percent over the past three years. Despite a very significant contribution to national production, the traditional sector is effectively denied access to credit by the stipulation that borrowers must possess a minimum of 500 feddans (about 200 ha). Bank credit is used mainly to finance production activities such as ploughing, weeding and harvesting. Banks providing agricultural credit include the Agricultural Bank of Sudan, the Omdurman Bank, the Islamic Bank, the Bank of Khartoum, Baraka, the French Bank and the Commercial Bank. This year, the Agricultural Bank of Sudan helped finance the operations of more than 450 000 farmers in the central and eastern regions of White Nile and South Kordofan at a total outlay of about 5 billion Sudanese dinars (SD).

Since last year, farmers have been responsible for purchasing their own inputs (mostly fertilizers) either from their own resources or using bank loans. If they use bank loans, these must be repaid prior to harvest. As a result, fertilizer use continued to decline this year, especially in the north’s mechanized rainfed sector. Clean seed of appropriate varieties was reported to have been readily available in most high-production areas.

3.1.2 Rainfall

Average annual rainfall in Sudan ranges from almost zero in the north of the country to 1 800 mm in the southern state of Western Equatoria.

The rains in 2003 began slightly late over much of the country but then continued (with a few exceptions) very favourably throughout the cropping season. Effective rainfall started between March and May over most of the south, in May in parts of South Darfur and West Kordofan (which was earlier than usual), and in late June and early July in most of the rest of the country’s rainfed agricultural areas. Good rainfall distribution at the beginning of the season limited the requirement for replanting to the minimum. One exception was in sections of the major irrigation schemes, where floods following extremely heavy rains at the end of July destroyed significant areas of established crop. Gezira reported damage to 5 000 feddans, while Rahad reported flooding of 30 000 feddans of sorghum, 10 000 feddans of groundnuts and 3 000 feddans of cotton. New Halfa reported damage to 7 500 feddans of sorghum and 9 800 feddans of other crops. Outside of the irrigation schemes, the same flooding caused serious damage to houses and peri-urban vegetable plots, especially in Kassala, but affected traditional and rainfed mechanized cereal production only slightly. The country’s two major spate irrigation schemes, Tokar and Gash, benefited from good, well-distributed floods this year. Tokar, which received only eight floods in 2002, received fourteen in 2003 between 27 July and 21 September. Rainfall continued adequately in many areas of the north and south until October, though there were isolated instances of premature cessation in early September in parts of White Nile, Gedaref and Kassala.

Rainfall this year in Red Sea state, which began in early August, was the highest in five years. However, the rains stopped at the end of September when much of the crop was approaching the grain-filling stage; only about 30 percent of the total area planted is expected to produce. Pasture, on the other hand, was able to benefit. The coastal winter rains, which usually begin around mid-November, had not yet fallen by the middle of the last dekad of that month.

The level of the River Nile was high this year, although not as high as during the record year of 1988. This resulted in a good demira sorghum crop in River Nile state, in sharp contrast to last year’s almost complete failure when water level of the river was unusually low.

3.1.3 Area planted

A larger area of cereal crop was planted this year than last and, largely as a result of the good rains, the rate of attrition has been low. Compared with last year, the area to be harvested has increased by 30 percent. A 400 percent expansion in the traditional sector in the south can be seen mainly as the increasing security in that part of the country. By the same token, the harvestable area under traditional cultivation in much of the region has diminished this year as a result of increasing insecurity. Among the three sectors, the rainfed mechanized sector showed the greatest overall expansion (56 percent), resulting mostly from an increase in the area planted to sorghum. The area planted to millet, although very much the minor crop in this sector, showed an increase of more than 350 percent over last year. The irrigated sector covered a similar area as last year, with some marked variations within the sector. For instance, the two spate schemes of Tokar and Gash expanded significantly (and Gash is expected to expand further in the coming years with the implementation of an IFAD-funded development), while the productive areas on the Gezira and Rahad schemes diminished, partly as a result of flood damage.

3.1.4 Agricultural inputs

The principal users of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides and improved seed in Sudan are the farmers in the irrigated sector. Fertilizer use is reported to have declined further this year as a result of last year’s policy change concerning the purchase and distribution of fertilizer through the scheme management bodies. Fertilizer – predominantly urea – was at one time provided to registered farmers at favourable rates by the corporations managing the schemes. The corporations have now withdrawn this service, with the result that farmers must find and negotiate their own credit and identify suppliers if they wish to purchase fertilizer.

In contrast, the use of improved seed increased again this year, with many scheme corporations providing their farmers with seed either free or at cost. Improved sorghum varieties used this year include Wad Ahmed, Gadam Hamam and Arfa Gadamek, while the premium-priced Tabet continues to be widely planted. The traditional sector in the north has also benefited from timely seed distributions through the FAO Emergency Unit and various NGOs. In the south, most seed was home-produced, though increased security has meant that there is more seed available on the market. Various NGOs and FAO conducted seed distribution programmes in the south as well.

The mechanized sector saw some improvement in numbers of operational tractors this year. In the high-production areas of the central and eastern regions, farmers reported a labour shortage for weeding and harvesting, presumably as a result of high production.

3.1.5 Weeds, pests and diseases

In the north, the good rains generally encouraged vigorous weed growth. However, some producers (presumably those who had planted at the optimal time) reported that crop growth and canopy formation were sufficiently vigorous to crowd out and smother the weeds, with the result that weeding was less onerous this year. Some areas reported that the cost of weeding was higher than usual, and that increased demand had led to a labour shortage. Striga remains one of the most important weeds in sorghum fields, with some farmers switching to millet to avoid it. The area affected by Striga is increasing in GOS-held parts of the south, where shifting cultivation is being abandoned in favour of settled agriculture with a concomitant reduction in soil fertility. The thorny mesquite tree Accacia proposis continues to colonize new areas in irrigation schemes. New Halfa and Tokar have been particularly affected; about 100 000 feddans (40 000 ha) of the New Halfa scheme are infested by the tree, which has also rendered unusable more than 50 percent of Tokar’s 102 000 feddans of flooded land. In New Halfa, a programme of manual tree removal has begun, but progress is slow.

This year has seen a relatively low incidence of cereal pests. American bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) and sorghum bug (Agonoscelis pubescens) caused some yield reduction, but infestation levels in general have not been serious. Control of the sorghum bug was carried out by several State Ministries of Agriculture during the first half of the year prior to planting. Grasshoppers, especially Edaleus senegalensis, a relative newcomer to Sudan, are reported to have caused significant crop damage in parts of the west. In parts of North Kordofan, it was estimated that E senegalensis had caused some damage to as much as 60 percent of the millet crop. Millet headworm (Heliocheilus albipunctella) was reported in the west but appears to have been present at normal levels.

Surveys carried out during the period June–September indicated that the numbers of solitary desert locusts were increasing in response to the good rains and that there was danger that they might swarm. North Kordofan, River Nile and Khartoum states appeared to be most at risk, with about 31 000 ha affected, of which 5 000 were treated. Hopper bands were later observed inland from Sinkat in Red Sea State, but no crop damage from swarms had been reported. However close monitoring is required in 2004.

There were serious outbreaks of the watermelon bug (Aspongopus viduatus) this year in North and West Kordofan, where the watermelon is an important ingredient in the coping strategy of much of the population: it serves as a source of clean moisture for human consumption, income from the sale of the seeds and fodder. Losses of more than 90 percent were reported in parts of North Kordofan, while in West Kordofan total destruction was recorded. The watermelon bug is relatively easy to control by manual removal and indeed has been so controlled in the past in response to a WFP food-for-work incentive. In North Kordofan, for instance, 280 bags (the food for work project was 1 bag of food against one bag of bugs) of the pest were collected in one season. It seems odd that the survival of the crop itself provides insufficient incentive for carrying out such a simple control measure.

Quelea quelea is classified as a national pest and, as such, is controlled in the north by the federal MOA. Control this year has been effective, with only localized and relatively minor damage to crops being reported. In the south, security concerns continue to preclude the use of aerial spraying, and late-maturing sorghum varieties are particularly vulnerable to attack. Rats and army worms were troublesome at the beginning of the season in South Kordofan.

Crop disease levels in the north have been low this year, though some sorghum smut was reported in South and West Kordofan and at Gash. In the south, rosette virus and leafspot affected the production of groundnut to some extent, and mosaic virus the production of cassava.

3.2 Cereal production forecast

Total national cereal production for Sudan in 2003/04 is forecast at 6.33 million tonnes, comprising 5 million tonnes of sorghum, 784 000 tonnes of millet, 356 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2004), 107 000 tonnes of maize and 35 000 tonnes of rice. Total cereal production will be about 63 percent above that of last year and 47 percent above the average for the preceding five years. Production figures by state for 2003/04, and comparisons with those for 2002/03, are given in Table 1. Cereal areas, yields and production by region for the past five years are given in Table 2.

3.3 Other crops

In South Darfur and West Kordofan the area under groundnut increased in response to the high prices obtained for last year’s crop. Similarly, the area under sesame, especially in White Nile, Blue Nile and Gedaref, has increased. Karkade (hibiscus sp.) production has increased in West Kordofan, and the area under cotton in Tokar showed marked expansion in expectation of good financial returns. The year 2003 was bad for watermelon in North and West Kordofan, with the loss of most of the production to the watermelon bug (which returned after a quiet year in 2002).

3.4 Livestock

Sudanese livestock are generally in good body conditions due to the availability of pasture and water and concerted efforts by FAO and NGOs to provide technical support to community-based animal health delivery services. The Rinderpest Campaign in the south has been rather successful and vaccination against the disease ceased as of June 2002 in Jonglei and Equatoria and a Rinderpest surveillance programme has been established to closely monitor the situation.

The good rains this year have resulted in better pasture than has been seen for several years in most parts of the country, with many areas having sufficient pasture to see them through the year until the return of the rains. In areas where hafirs are plentiful, water levels are generally very satisfactory. In the marginal-rainfall areas of North Darfur, West Kordofan and Red Sea, water for livestock is always a problem even when pasture is relatively plentiful. The year 2003 was no exception to this rule, and herders will move their stock as usual, though possibly at a slightly later date and possibly not so far afield. Even in areas such as Blue Nile State, which habitually has sufficient pasture for its livestock, cattle movement is dictated by access to water.

Livestock prices have risen in response to the favourable climatic conditions, with herders seeing this year as an opportunity to increase their herd size and fatten their animals for sale.

Table 1. Sudan: Cereal production forecasts for 2003/04 and estimates of 2002/03 production (’000 tonnes)

* Caution is warranted with Darfur estimates, particularly western Darfur, as they are mainly based on discussion with provincial Ministry of Agriculture staff and were difficult to verify due to insecurity.

** The sorghum data for southern Sudan includes maize.

Table 2. Sudan: Area, yield and production forecast by crop and region for 2003/04, compared with previous years