Table 8: CGI and IARC Contributions to Yield Growth
|
Annual Yield Growth Contribution for CGI |
Adoption shares |
IARC Growth Contribution |
||||||||
|
Crop/Region |
1960s |
1970s |
1980s |
1990s |
1960-98 |
IX |
IA |
¼ |
½ |
|
|
Wheat |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latin America |
0.394 |
1.320 |
1.563 |
0.768 |
1.059 |
0.54 |
0.30 |
0.620 |
0.518 |
|
|
Asia |
0.678 |
1.118 |
1.168 |
0.846 |
1.006 |
0.23 |
0.35 |
0.465 |
0.427 |
|
|
M.E.N.A. |
0.189 |
0.531 |
0.861 |
1.388 |
0.829 |
0.50 |
0.32 |
0.477 |
0.406 |
|
|
S.S. Africa |
0.183 |
0.838 |
1.093 |
0.855 |
0.531 |
0.37 |
0.26 |
0.285 |
0.254 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.514 |
0.981 |
1.125 |
0.975 |
0.960 |
0.32 |
0.32 |
0.464 |
0.412 |
|
|
Rice |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Latin America |
0.077 |
0.787 |
1.315 |
0.876 |
0.818 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.374 |
0.331 |
|
Asia |
0.375 |
0.998 |
0.966 |
0.713 |
0.868 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.370 |
0.327 |
|
|
S.S. Africa |
0.000 |
0.085 |
0.572 |
1.219 |
0.545 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.174 |
0.153 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.342 |
0.940 |
0.959 |
0.747 |
0.794 |
0.29 |
0.29 |
0.352 |
0.312 |
|
|
Maize |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Latin America |
0.402 |
0.474 |
0.547 |
0.862 |
0.625 |
0.10 |
0.27 |
0.203 |
0.192 |
|
Asia |
0.407 |
0.694 |
1.016 |
1.377 |
0.959 |
0.30 |
0.32 |
0.454 |
0.405 |
|
|
S.S. Africa |
0.041 |
0.131 |
0.481 |
0.197 |
0.224 |
0.20 |
0.50 |
0.129 |
0.123 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.311 |
0.481 |
0.733 |
0.906 |
0.665 |
0.23 |
0.32 |
0.291 |
0.265 |
|
|
Sorghum |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Asia |
0.148 |
0.622 |
1.403 |
0.976 |
0.847 |
0.05 |
0.20 |
0.195 |
0.186 |
|
S.S. Africa |
0.000 |
0.257 |
0.316 |
0.514 |
0.304 |
0.50 |
0.10 |
0.133 |
0.122 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.055 |
0.091 |
0.716 |
0.683 |
0.504 |
0.22 |
0.16 |
0.151 |
0.127 |
|
|
Millets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Asia |
0.515 |
0.963 |
0.954 |
1.392 |
1.043 |
0.27 |
0.41 |
0.552 |
0.510 |
|
S.S. Africa |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.205 |
0.425 |
0.184 |
0.26 |
0.26 |
0.075 |
0.066 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.228 |
0.428 |
0.537 |
0.854 |
0.565 |
0.27 |
0.58 |
0.286 |
0.262 |
|
|
Barley |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
M.E.N.A. |
0.073 |
0.199 |
0.424 |
1.010 |
0.490 |
0.50 |
0.30 |
0.278 |
0.235 |
|
Lentils |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
M.E.N.A. |
0.000 |
.000 |
0.193 |
0.750 |
0.283 |
0.70 |
0.20 |
0.144 |
0.112 |
|
Beans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Latin America |
0.034 |
0.041 |
0.463 |
0.281 |
0.222 |
0.70 |
0.10 |
0.127 |
0.092 |
|
S.S. Africa |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.188 |
0.426 |
0.180 |
0.80 |
0.20 |
0.122 |
0.094 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.022 |
0.027 |
0.367 |
0.331 |
0.208 |
0.75 |
0.15 |
0.131 |
0.098 |
|
|
Cassava |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latin America |
0.000 |
0.043 |
0.055 |
0.238 |
0.100 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
0.005 |
0.003 |
|
|
Asia |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.091 |
0.485 |
0.174 |
0.80 |
0.20 |
0.118 |
0.091 |
|
|
S.S. Africa |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.093 |
0.771 |
0.249 |
0.80 |
0.20 |
0.169 |
0.129 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.087 |
0.636 |
0.222 |
0.74 |
0.19 |
0.142 |
0.109 |
|
|
Potatoes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Latin America |
0.672 |
0.885 |
0.631 |
0.694 |
0.752 |
0.07 |
0.09 |
0.104 |
0.092 |
|
Asia |
0.811 |
0.672 |
0.759 |
0.846 |
0.825 |
0.05 |
0.07 |
0.086 |
0.077 |
|
|
S.S. Africa |
0.000 |
0.716 |
0.864 |
1.099 |
0.739 |
0.55 |
0.17 |
0.379 |
0.294 |
|
|
All Regions |
0.708 |
0.711 |
0.749 |
0.846 |
0.807 |
0.08 |
0.09 |
0.117 |
0.102 |
|
|
All Crops |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Latin America |
0.312 |
0.600 |
0.781 |
0.751 |
0.658 |
0.28 |
0.27 |
0.279 (.42) |
0.245 (.37) |
|
Asia |
0.452 |
0.932 |
1.030 |
0.890 |
0.884 |
0.26 |
0.31 |
0.393 (.44) |
0.353 (.40) |
|
|
M.E.N.A. |
0.141 |
0.270 |
0.681 |
1.228 |
0.688 |
0.50 |
0.31 |
0.391 (.57) |
0.332 (.48) |
|
|
S.S. Africa |
0.017 |
0.142 |
0.358 |
0.497 |
0.280 |
0.38 |
0.24 |
0.128 (.46) |
0.108 (.33) |
|
|
All Regions |
0.321 |
0.676 |
0.832 |
0.823 |
0.718 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.328 (.46) |
0.291 (.41) |
|
Table 9: Price Production Area and Trade Effects. Alternative Counterfactual Scenarios
| |
Wheat |
Rice |
Maize |
Other Grains |
Potatoes |
Other Root |
All Food Crops |
|
Price Effects (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
29-61 |
80-124 |
23-45 |
21-50 |
13-31 |
28-52 |
35-66 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
19-22 |
30-35 |
13-15 |
14-16 |
2-3 |
15.32 |
18-21 |
|
Production Effects (Negative) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
9-14 |
11-14 |
9-12 |
5-9 |
12-18 |
2-3 |
8-12 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
5-6 |
4-5 |
4-5 |
3-4 |
3-4 |
1-2 |
4-5 |
|
Area Effects (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
3.2-2.1 |
7.5-9.4 |
1.1-1.9 |
.4-2.2 |
0.0-0.0 |
2.2-3.2 |
2.8-4.6 |
|
No IARC CGI |
2.1-2.1 |
2.9-3.3 |
.5-.6 |
.5-.6 |
0.0-0.0 |
1.4-3.2 |
1.5-2.7 |
|
Trade Effects (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
31-19 |
0-2 |
45-46 |
25-19 |
190-192 |
21-65 |
27-30 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
7-6 |
0-2 |
16-18 |
1-2 |
16-33 |
11-12 |
6-9 |
Table 10: Yield, Area and Production Effects - Developed and Developing Countries: Counterfactual Scenarios
| |
Wheat |
Rice |
Maize |
Other Grains |
Potatoes |
Other Root |
All Crops |
|
A. YIELD EFFECTS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed Countries (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
4.4-7.5 |
0.0-6.7 |
1.4-3.1 |
0.0-1.8 |
1.5-2.0 |
nc |
2.32-4.77 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
2.7-5.1 |
0.0-1.0 |
.5-2.5 |
0.0-1.8 |
0.5-1.0 |
nc |
1.35-2.45 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developing Countries (Negative) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
26.2-31.3 |
18.3-22.9 |
21.5-25.9 |
15.0-17.1 |
23.5-28.3 |
4.3-4.4 |
19.45-23.50 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
11.6-12.9 |
7.8-8.7 |
8.7-9.5 |
5.6-5.8 |
3.4-3.9 |
2.5-4.0 |
8.07-8.91 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B. AREA EFFECTS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed Countries (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
4.5-7.5 |
11.8-15.8 |
2.2-3.4 |
.4-1.8 |
0.0-.1 |
nc |
2.82-4.92 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
2.7-3.1 |
4.8-5.5 |
.9-1.1 |
.3-.4 |
0.0-.1 |
nc |
1.59-1.86 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developing Countries (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
1.7-3.6 |
7.3-9.3 |
.6-1.2 |
.5-.6 |
0.0-.1 |
´2.2-3.3 |
2.82-4.92 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
1.4-1.5 |
6.1-6.5 |
.3-.4 |
.4-.5 |
0.0-.1 |
1.4-3.3 |
1.59-1.86 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. PRODUCTION EFFECTS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed Countries (Positive) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
8.3-11.0 |
15.7-19.3 |
2.0-5.3 |
1.8-2.3 |
1.2-4.9 |
nc |
4.43-6.93 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
1.6-2.1 |
3.1-5.5 |
1.6-1.3 |
1.3-1.4 |
1.2-1.6 |
nc |
.96-1.68 |
|
Developing Countries (Negative) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1965 CGI |
25.0-28.6 |
12.1-15.2 |
21.0-24.9 |
14.0-14.6 |
24.5-29.1 |
2.0-2.5 |
15.85-18.63 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
10.4-11.6 |
5.1-5.7 |
8.5-9.3 |
4.9-5.2 |
4.9-5.4 |
1.1-2.1 |
6.48-7.30 |
Table 11. Area Effects (Positive Except where Noted) by Region and Crop: Counterfactual Scenarios
| |
Wheat |
Rice |
Maize |
Other |
Potatoes |
Other |
All Food |
|
Latin America |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
5.1-9.6 |
9.1-11.7 |
2.1-3.6 |
.4-.6 |
-1.2-.0 |
.3-.5 |
3.10-5.12 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
3.1-3.6 |
3.5-4.0 |
1.0-1.2 |
.4-.6 |
-.1-.0 |
.3-.3 |
1.54-3.08 |
|
Sub-Saharan Africa |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
2.5-4.4 |
6.7-7.4 |
.8-1.5 |
2.1-4.8 |
-.2-2.0 |
2.5-3.6 |
2.19-4.00 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
1.7-2.0 |
2.3-2.6 |
.4-.5 |
.2-.3 |
0.1-0 |
1.6-3.6 |
.63-1.01 |
|
Middle East-North Africa |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
4.0-7.1 |
12.5-14.3 |
1.2-1.3 |
.9-3.1 |
-.0-.0 |
|
3.20-5.78 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
2.5-2.9 |
4.3-4.8 |
.2-.3 |
.6-.7 |
-.1-.0 |
|
1.84-2.14 |
|
Asia (including China) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
1.4-1.8 |
7.2-9.2 |
-.5-.0 |
-.4-.7 |
-.1-.0 |
2.6-3.5 |
3.52-4.74 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
.6-.7 |
2.8-3.2 |
-0.0-0.0 |
.5-.6 |
-.1-.0 |
1.0-1.5 |
1.47-1.71 |
Table 12: Production Effects by Region and Crop. Alternative Counterfactual Scenarios
| |
Wheat |
Rice |
Maize |
Other |
Potatoes |
Other |
All Food |
|
Latin America(negative) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
25.6-29.6 |
9.6-12.0 |
15.8-18. |
26.8-31.1 |
23.8-28.2 |
1.5-4.0 |
15.41-18.32 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
12.3-14.6 |
3.8-4.3 |
3 4.0-4.1 |
9.8-10.3 |
4.6-5.0 |
1.5-4.0 |
5.41-5.62 |
|
Sub-Saharan Africa (negative) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
9.3-10.1 |
1.6-2.0 |
2.0-3.4 |
2.0-5.0 |
22.5-26.3 |
1.8-2.5 |
2.04-3.32 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
3.6-3.8 |
1.6-2.0 |
1.6-1.9 |
1.1-1.9 |
10.8-14.0 |
.9-1.5 |
1.15-1.73 |
|
Middle East-North Africa (negative) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
27.1-31.5 |
3.0-3.5 |
3.3-3.9 |
3.5-5.1 |
22.5-26.9 |
|
17.56-20.66 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
10.9-11.6 |
3.0-3.5 |
2.4-2.5 |
1.6-1.7 |
10.6-15.0 |
|
7.36-7.87 |
|
Asia (including China) (negative) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
26.7-30.8 |
12.9-16.3 |
27.5-33.3 |
27.5-32.1 |
24.1-29.8 |
.6-1.6 |
20.12-22. |
|
NO IARC CGI |
10.7-11.4 |
5.3-5.9 |
12.0-13.3 |
10.0-10.6 |
3.9-4.1 |
.6-1.6 |
8.30-9.1275 |
|
Developed Countries (Positive) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
8.3-11.0 |
15.7-19.2 |
2.0-5.3 |
1.8-2.3 |
1.2-4.9 |
|
4.43-6.93 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
.6-2.1 |
3.2-5.5 |
1.0-1.3 |
1.3-1.4 |
1.2-1.6 |
|
.96-1.68 |
|
Developing Countries (Negative) |
|||||||
|
1965 CGI |
25.0-28.6 |
12.1-15.2 |
21.0-24.9 |
14.0-14.6 |
24.5-29.1 |
2.0-2.5 |
15.85-18.63 |
|
NO IARC CGI |
10.4-11.6 |
5.1-5.7 |
8.5-9.3 |
4.9-5.2 |
4.9-5.4 |
1.1-2.1 |
6.48-7.30 |
Table 13: Price Projections 2020/1997: IFPRI IMPACT Model
|
Commodity |
Base Case |
Trade |
Delayed |
Delayed |
Global |
|
Wheat |
.93 |
8.1 |
5.9 |
10.6 |
1.2 |
|
Rice |
.88 |
14.0 |
7.5 |
20.0 |
1.0 |
|
Maize |
.99 |
8.8 |
5.2 |
16.8 |
1.0 |
|
Other Cereals |
.89 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
9.3 |
0.1 |
|
Beef |
.96 |
17.5 |
7.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
Pork |
.97 |
10.9 |
15.5 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
|
Sheep-Goats |
.97 |
18.9 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Poultry |
.96 |
11.7 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
