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The objective of this chapter is to provide a forward picture for tobacco to the year 2010 based on consistent projections of consumption, production and trade patterns for tobacco leaf for all countries and for the world.

The methodology used in the projections follows the structure of a standard commodity production, consumption and trade model, albeit with some simplifications imposed mainly due to lack of price data, detailed in Annex B.

The projections take into account changing consumer demand, production trends and likely developments in national and international policy relating to tobacco production, consumption and trade with particular attention given to the likely impact of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

Alternative policy scenarios incorporating various price and non-price policy measures - including raising taxes, reducing protection to tobacco production and the adoption of bans on advertising and promotion of cigarettes in various countries - are incorporated when possible.

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