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PART III: INVESTMENT PLANS AND PROJECT PROFILES: TOWARDS A ROAD MAP FOR THE TRANSITIONAL PROCESS


XVI. AN OVERVIEW OF THE THREE-YEAR PROGRAMME FOR THE NORTHERN GOVERNORATES[14]

Common programme framework of UNOHCI

To focus resources in an integrated approach on vulnerable groups of people in the more vulnerable locations of the three northern Governorates, the UN Office of the Humanitarian Co-ordinator for Iraq (UNOHCI) prepared the Common Programme Framework (CPF) in early 2002. The CPF requests all UN agencies to prepare a three-year programme of activities highlighting their targets and indicators.

Even though the mandate of UNOHCI is limited only to humanitarian challenges, the CPF recognises "that the approach in Northern Iraq should seek to integrate the issues of food security and nutrition, the rehabilitation of essential social services and economic infrastructure, while laying down the foundations for future development efforts for a stable society" According to the UNOHCI draft document, key features of the CPF are:

Natural resource management (especially water resources and irrigation, reforestation and range management) and targeted assistance to vulnerable groups (including IDPs) have, therefore, been designated as priority concerns of the FAO three-year programme.

UNOHCI requested FAO to be the lead agency in implementing area-based rural interventions targeted on vulnerable groups. The three-year programme, therefore, included practical mechanisms and institutional arrangements for targeting vulnerable groups and vulnerable areas in an area-based integrated community demand-driven approach. UNOHCI will have to rely heavily on the UN agencies working in a collaborative way in order for the area-focused approach to work.

From emergency relief to a medium-term three-year programme

As noted earlier, the transition from short-term humanitarian and emergency relief interventions to a medium-term internally consistent targeted humanitarian and rehabilitation agricultural programme, necessitates a new approach. Issues that assume greater emphasis include: (i) overall sector management and closer working relationships with LAs in a decentralised common-roof approach, (ii) clear definition of a policy framework conducive to sustainable rehabilitation, (in) targeting vulnerable areas and groups of vulnerable people, (iii) effective participation of the beneficiaries and the communities, (iv) financial and economic viability, (v) ownership and management of procured assets, (vi) sustainability and environmental soundness of the humanitarian efforts and of rehabilitation.

Since November 2000, FAO has been planning for a transition from short-term relief to rehabilitation over the medium term. To this end, two missions were fielded. The first was fielded in November/December 2000. It prepared a strategic framework for the rehabilitation process[15]. A second mission followed in August 2001, focused on the formulation of a rehabilitation programme[16]. To follow up on these initiatives, a programme formulation facilitation team worked in close collaboration with concerned technical divisions on the formulation of a three-year programme for the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector in the northern Governorates.

The three-year programme: an overview

A draft main report of the three-year programme has been prepared. The report synthesises the findings detailed in the working papers The following working papers have been prepared (i) water resources and irrigation, (ii) plant production and protection, (iii) animal production and health, (iv) agricultural research, extension and training, (v) farm mechanisation, (vi) agro-industries and marketing, (vii) forestry and rangeland management, (viii) targeting vulnerable groups and stakeholder participation, (ix) economic and financial analysis, and (x) programme implementation and management.

A logframe approach has been adopted in formulating the overall programme structure and the projects included in the Programme. Emphasis has been placed on defining project purposes (objectives), outputs and activities, implementation responsibilities and performance indicators. The logical framework of-the three-year programme is presented in Annex II, of the Programme's main report.

The main report stresses that within a medium-term framework these investments on their own will not be sufficient to rehabilitate the agricultural sector durably and sustainably without several important changes in policy.(Some of these complementary policies are highlighted in this document, see for instance Chapters VI and XVII.)

The programme consists of the following five components: (i) addressing agricultural-related needs of vulnerable groups; (ii) improving farming systems and use of land resources; (iii) rehabilitating agriculture-related infrastructure; (iv) supporting agricultural services; and (v) improving programme planning, implementation and management.

Component 1, has been designed to provide the institutional mechanisms to assess the agricultural-related needs of vulnerable areas and vulnerable households, and to ensure that the programme will respond to these needs where it is technically, economically and socially viable to do so. The component is structured in two sub-components (i) sustainable community-based activities; and (ii) agricultural rehabilitation. in the first sub-component emphasis is placed on piloting in a limited number of sub-districts (23) and clusters of village's (33) sustainable community-based activities The second sub-component is designed to provide rapid rehabilitation response through the provision of inputs to the most vulnerable households eventually in all 67 sub-districts of the three northern Governorates over the three-year span. This component will be linked closely to components 2, 3 and 4 through the creation of a Community- Participation Unit, which will be supported by the programme. The preliminary costs are estimated at US$ 38.4 million (7% of total costs).

Component 2, includes interventions which aim at paving the way to sustainable rehabilitation of the main farming systems and the use of land resources. The component is designed to ensure an integrated systems approach, is used to effectively address the main problems which cross sub-sector boundaries associated with the currently low productivity farming systems and the extremely degraded state of land resources. There are two sub components: (i) integrated farming systems; and (ii) land resources management. costs are estimated at US$ 89.3 million (15% of total costs).

Component 3, is aimed at rehabilitating rural infrastructure. The three sub components are: (i) water resources and irrigation; (ii) support to food processing; and (iii) improvement of rural and semi urban infrastructure. The water resources and irrigation interventions are aimed at improving the assessment of both ground and surface water resources and on improving the sustainable utilisation of water for irrigation, largely through rehabilitation of existing irrigation schemes and the introduction of low cost irrigation technologies. The programme includes interventions aimed at completing the installation and commissioning of seven food processing factories initiated through the Oil-for-Food Programme and the promotion of cottage industries. Rehabilitation and improvement of (i) grain storage capacity at local, sub district and district levels, (ii) fruit and vegetable market infrastructure, and (iii) village access roads will also be included in this component. Costs are estimated at US$ 221.1 million (38% of total costs).

Component 4, aims at rehabilitating and supporting agricultural services. Four sub- components included -are: (i) enhancing agricultural research; (ii) supporting agricultural extension and training; (iii) supporting agricultural-related laboratories: (iv) supporting agricultural quarantine services; (v) strengthening veterinary public health and meat hygiene; (vi) enhancing seed production; and (vii) supporting farm -mechanisation. The support to farm mechanisation services will be directed at the private sector. Costs are estimated at US$ 119.8 million (20% of total costs).

Component 5, is aimed at improving programme planning, implementation and management in northern Iraq and in Headquarters. Institutional strengthening in planning programming, and M&E, in market information and in early warning of drought, pest and disease outbreaks and other calamities. In headquarters interventions will be to support planning and programming, in M&E and in installing a management information system. Costs are estimated at US$ 6 million (1% of total costs). Overhead administration and management costs (2.2% account). These are estimated at US$ 110.7 million (19% of total costs).

The three-year programme provides a model for the formulation of a plan for the entire country. The above mentioned drafts show the linkages among various sub-sectors and the integrative approach of the plan formulation within appropriate farming systems approach. The three-year programme also attaches high priority to assisting vulnerable groups in the northern region. Another key principal of the three-year programme for the north is its emphasise on a participatory approach for the programme's further elaboration and implementation. These principals are also valid for the rest of the country[17].

XVII. TOWARDS AN AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT PLAN IN IRAQ: A ROAD MAP FOR THE TRANSITIONAL PROCESS

Agricultural development and post-war realities in Iraq: a forward looking approach

As indicated at the outset of the document, wars, sanctions and the fall of a tyranny have resulted in an almost breakdown of the national economy. The Iraqi people and the international community, including the Coalition Provisional Authority, the UN, FAO and other agencies, are therefore launching a nation-building approach for putting the Iraqi economy back on the development track.

Notwithstanding the destruction and the almost breakdown of the Iraqi national economy, there is a strong case for hope and optimism in the success of the nation-building approach in the country. This optimistic note is based on, among others, the following notions: the country's substantive heritage, deep historical roots and the existence of highly educated and professional Iraqis; the existence of substantial natural resource base including land, water and favourable climatic conditions; the existence of national working institutions for various sectors and services; and the country's endowment with a wealth of oil resources.

Since the agricultural sector assumes a prominent role in the national economy, its sustainable development should be designed and implemented within a national macro-economic setting as well as with due consideration to the linkages between the sector and other non-agricultural sectors of the economy. This section provides an overview of the post-war realities in Iraq as the context within which the transitional process towards sustainable agricultural development could be formulated and implemented.

With the above in mind, the following is a forward looking approach for nation-building in Iraq that should help the country overcome its current difficult and most challenging conditions. The following are the proposed steps for the nation-building process in the country[18]:

First, re-establishment of a sovereign power and rehabilitation of the national institutions across the entire country. The institution building process should be highly participatory and should include representations of various factions of the society. As regards the institutional regional structure, it could be based on a federal approach. Some guiding principles for the spatial dimension and the decentralized approach for the decision making process in the country are provided in Chapter V above.

Second, revisiting the macro-economic setting in the country. In this regard, two key macro-economic aspects should be addressed: i) re-establishing a reliable medium of exchange. The point here is to set-up a reliable currency. It is suggested to peg the Iraqi dinar to hard currency or currencies to ensure the national currency credibility. This is, of course, both economic and political decision to be settled by the rehabilitated concerned institutions referred to above. The obvious choices could be pegging the dinar to the US dollar, the euro and/or to a basket of both currencies; ii) settling the country's external financial position. The country faces an enormous debt problem that needs to be addressed by the international community. The principle here is that the Iraqi people should not be further "penalized" for the "sins" of their earlier regime. Some external debt forgiving and rescheduling, as appropriate, should be introduced. The bulk of the country's financial resources should, indeed, be directed towards the nation-building and the country's economic development process.

Third, introducing a mechanism for optimum utilisation of the country's revenues from its oil resources. As noted above, Iraq is blessed by oil. Oil is an exhaustible natural resource. It is not a renewable productive resource base. Consequently, it is the responsibility of the current generation towards the new generations to utilize the returns of this resource as investment into a permanent and sustainable production base. That is, the returns from oil should be utilized in building up an industrial, manufacturing, agricultural and human resource base as well as improving the quality of life. In this way the exhaustible natural resource (oil) changes its nature from a resource that would be exhausted at a certain point of time in the future into a sustainable production base (see Chapter III).

What is needed, under this step, is a mechanism for the optimization of the revenues from the oil resources, and a thorough, transparent and accountable approach for a proper utilization of this resource for the country's multi-sectoral development. In other words, the revenues from the oil should be utilized for the benefit of the entire Iraqi population.

Fourth, given the substantial destruction of the infrastructure of the agricultural sector, the transitional process should start with conducting a thorough, comprehensive and as far as feasible quantitative needs assessment analysis. Such analysis should be conducted not only for the agricultural sector as a whole, but also in relation to key sub-sectors. On the basis of the findings of the analysis, a sustainable agricultural development programme would be formulated for funding and implementation (see chapter II above on the methodological approach for the transitional process). Similar assessments should be carried out in relation to other sectors in the economy.

Appreciating that conducting the needs assessment, including analysis of the damages to the agricultural infrastructure, should be based on a thorough field work, it is planned that this exercise would be carried-out by the follow-up multi-disciplinary team during it's forthcoming field work in the country.

Fifth, developing a programme approach for the transition from short, to medium to longer-term actions for major sub-sectors as well as by geographical locations, i.e., by regions. At this analytical step a clear distinction and careful specification of the short, medium and longer-terms activities would be carried out. The programme approach in agriculture would also aim at addressing such targets as humanitarian needs of vulnerable groups engaged in agriculture, livestock and related activities; sustaining food production and income generating activities of farmers; and supporting co-ordinated interventions of organisations involved in agriculture and food security activities.

Sixth, establishing a longer-term vision that provides the approach for the transition process for the national economy including the food and agricultural sector. To this end, it is proposed that the basic philosophy and approach of FAO Special Programme for Food Security (SPFS) could be imbedded in the vision. In addition, key elements from sustainable livelihoods approach could be also incorporated in the vision, (see Chapter V above).

Seventh, in line with the conceived vision, identifying priorities for medium to longer-term recovery and elaborating key performance requirements/indicators of the national strategy to be developed with a view to meeting the set priorities.

Eighth, setting up a transparent, credible and accountable system for the expenditure of the oil revenues on the country's developmental needs. This step calls for the establishment of an appropriate budgetary process for oil revenues expenditure. To this end, expenditure programmes and proposals would be formulated for key sectors, e.g. agriculture, health, education, ... etc. by concerned line ministries, with possible technical assistance - as needed - by specialized UN (e.g. FAO for agriculture) Agencies and other international community experts. A case in point, is for the new administration to benefit from the FAO's proposed Three-year Agricultural Programme for the northern Governorates, and this report (including it's follow-up multi-disciplinary field work) on the transition towards sustainable agricultural development in the country.

Ninth, sector proposals, plans and programmes would next be forwarded by the concerned line ministries (initially by concerned technical committees until the institutional setting is put in place) to the Ministry of Finance (being reactivated) to be funded and implemented as soon as possible. As noted above, line ministries (including the Ministry of Finance) could benefit from international experts advice by concerned partners in development particularly UNDG (the UN, FAO, World Bank, the Coalition Provisional Authority ...etc.).

Tenth, monitoring, evaluation (M&E) and follow-up. Once the above steps are put in place, a rigours system of M&E should be established and carefully implemented. This is a crucial process that ensures that the national economy, including the agricultural sector, is not only back on the development track, but also stays on track.

Finally, to assist in the nation-building process, UNDG should be commended for having already started coordinating the contributions of the international community of proposals for the nation-building in Iraq. This document aims to contribute to these admirable efforts in highlighting a framework for a road map for helping the Iraqi people to put their agricultural sector back on the development track.

Principles for incorporation in the road map

With the above in mind, the extended agricultural investment plan for the entire country should stress the following principals:

Main categories of agricultural investment

As regards the main categories of agriculture investment under the national plan, those highlighted under the three-year programme for the north provide an excellent starting point. In particular, the following categories of agricultural investment should be emphasized: investment in intensification of agricultural production with particular emphasis on irrigation and more efficient water utilization; land development and improvement; supply and timely availability of inputs; farm mechanization; food processing; rural infrastructure; technology generation, adaptation and transfer; and post-harvest operations.

Follow-up: a multi-disciplinary team and field work

For the formulation of an agricultural investment plan, to function as a road map for the transitional process in Iraq, it is planned that a comprehensive follow-up work be carried out by a multi-disciplinary team of experts. The team could address the transitional process in relation to key agricultural sub-sectors within the appropriate farming systems approach.

XVIII. SOME CONCLUDING REMARKS

The following questions were raised at the outset of the document: "What does it take to put the Iraqi food and agricultural sector back on the development track?" And how could FAO and the international community collaborate with the Iraqi people in rebuilding the country?"

In trying to answer these questions, the document adopted a futuristic, optimistic and pragmatic approach in highlighting a strategy for the transition from relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction to sustainable agricultural development. The case for an optimistic approach is based on the following notions: the country's substantive heritage, deep historical roots and the existence of highly educated and professional Iraqis; the existence of substantial natural resource base including land, water and favourable climatic conditions; the existence of national working institutions for various sectors and services; and the country's endowment with a wealth of oil resources.

To assist in putting the agricultural sector back on the development track, the document presents a pragmatic strategy for the transition from relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction to sustainable agricultural development in Iraq. The envisaged strategy focuses on attaching highest priority to such aspects as supporting the optimum utilization of national, regional and local resource base; contributing to national institution building; enhancing governance including the adoption of a decentralised approach; aiming at environmental protection, natural resource conservation and sustainable development; and achieving a national ownership of the entire transitional process.

Finally, it is the Iraqi people who have the skills, capabilities, resolve, and motivation, for the sake of their current and future generations, to re-build their country. The International Community and FAO in particular, stand ready to assist and collaborate, as partners in development, in this endeavour.

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[14] This section draws on the draft three-year-programme for the rehabilitation of the agricultural sector in the northern Governorates in Iraq; Volumes I to VI, FAO (TCES), Rome, (FAO. 2003b).
[15] See the mission's report: "Towards a strategic framework for sustainable agricultural rehabilitation programme in the three northern Governorates of Iraq"; The Multi-disciplinary Reconnaissance Mission Report; TCES/FAO; Rome, 2001, (FAO. 2001b.).
[16] See the mission's report "Programme for sustainable agricultural rehabilitation in the three northern Governnorates of Iraq"; Report of the Programming Mission; TCES/TCI/FAO, Rome, 2001, (FAO. 2001a.).
[17] The draft three-year plan documents (in six volumes) is available at FAO: TCES/TCIP, FAO, Rome. (FAO. 2003b.).
[18] The proposed approach for nation-building is an extended version (nation wise) of the suggested transitional methodology (for agriculture) presented in Chapter II above.
[19] For a broad review of agricultural investment analysis, see FAO document entitled "Investment in Agriculture: Evolution and Prospects", World Food Summit, Technical Background Documents (No 10, volume 2), FAO, Rome. (FAO. 1996.)

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