SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO ERITREA

18 January 2005

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING1
• 4. SITUATION BY REGION
• 5. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS, 2005
• 6. FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS FOR 2005
• 7. Medium- and longer-term policy directions

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission visited Eritrea from 15 November to 3 December 2004 to estimate the 2004 main season harvest, assess the overall food supply situation and forecast import requirements for 2005, including food assistance needs.

In Asmara, the Mission held meetings with the Eritrean officials of various ministries including the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the Ministry of National Development; members of the National Food Information System (NFIS) and Food Aid Working Group; officials of UN and other international agencies including FAO, WFP, UNFPA and UNICEF and the World Bank; officials of FEWSNet and several other NGOs. The Mission also consulted various reports about the economic situation, poverty levels, food security, and crop production.

The Mission split into two groups and was able to cover five of the six zobas (regions) – i.e. Anseba, Gash-Barka, Debub, Maekel and Northern Red Sea – and conducted extensive field visits in most of the sub-zobas under them. Only Southern Red Sea zoba was not visited due to logistical considerations, but no crops grow there. During field visits the Mission was assisted by senior officials from the MOA, both at central, zoba and subzoba levels, as well as by FAO officials and consultants, and accompanied by observers from FEWSNet and the European Commission (EC). Extensive discussions were held with zoba- and subzoba-level officials of the MOA, and interviews were conducted with farmers, pastoralists, labourers, traders and staff of some of the NGOs. Both crop production and livestock condition were reviewed in intensive discussions and interviews. Field assessments were made regarding household food security, vulnerability and coping strategies.

The 2004 agricultural season was characterized by erratic rainfall (started late and stopped too early with long dry spells, occasional torrential rains and hailstorms) and the total seasonal kremti rainfall was below average in most areas. This apparent pattern of seasonal rainfall characteristics has been observed in the last several years. In many places, including the potentially high-production areas of Goluj subzoba in Gash-Barka region, two or three replantings were made necessary by precipitation problems. Despite adverse weather conditions and shortages of both labour and farm equipment, this year the farmers planted a similar total area compared to last year to various crops. But in certain areas the crops failed, and in other areas yields were poor compared to expected results, mainly from erratic rainfall (including torrential rain and hailstorm damage) but also from outbreaks of chafer beetles and grasshoppers.

Against this adverse backdrop, the Mission forecasts a cereal harvest of about 85 000 tonnes, 20 percent below last year’s crop and nearly 47 percent below the average of the last 12 years. This is expected to be sufficient to cover about 15 percent of the annual national cereal requirements instead of the average of about 30 percent in the past 12 years.

The poor rains have also had a serious impact on the country's livestock. Many areas were short of fodder from about March till mid-August, and drinking water was scarce. The situation began to improve with the eventual arrival of the rains, but, by then, drought-related livestock deaths had already been reported in several parts of the country. The poor condition of oxen at the time of land preparation imposed further limitations on the area cropped.

The cereal import requirement for the marketing year 2005 (January/December) is estimated at 422 000 tonnes, setting the domestic availability of 234 000 tonnes against an estimated total utilization requirement of 656 000 tonnes. Reflecting the serious economic difficulties and precarious foreign exchange position of the country, only 80 000 tonnes, 19 percent of the requirement is anticipated to be covered through commercial imports. With another 80 000 tonnes of food aid currently in stock and pipeline, the uncovered deficit, for which international assistance is required, is estimated at 262 000 tonnes.

A shortfall of this proportion is a serious concern, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. The macro-economic environment is under severe pressure from high external and public-sector domestic debts which currently represent some 80 percent and 130 percent, respectively, of GDP. The inflation rate (measured by the Asmara CPI) has been persistently high over the past few years, but is now increasing rapidly. While inflation was 23 percent in 2003, it reached 29 percent in the 12-month period up to September 2004, and the increase was led by food products. In the same period prices were up 37 percent for food, 58 percent for cereals and 83 percent for pulses.

Vulnerable populations in 2005 include rural drought-affected populations, war-affected populations and refugees and urban vulnerable populations. Current estimates indicate that in 2005, 2.33 million people will require food aid either partially or throughout the year. Total food aid requirements in 2005 to meet the needs of these vulnerable groups will be 352 905 tonnes, including 282 425 tonnes of cereals.

Farmers will have access to only limited quantities of seed for planting, since many of them harvested little or nothing, and many others, who have indeed harvested some cereals, may be unable to put adequate quantities of seeds aside for saving. Critical emergency seed distribution support will thus be necessary to enable farmers to plant the maximum possible areas in various crops next year. In the case of livestock, emergency support will be needed to restructure animal health services so as to enable the sector to perform reasonably well next year.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING¹

Eritrea is among the least developed and poorest countries in the world, and experiences a chronic food deficit. Average cereal production since immediately before independence (1992-2003) was about 180 000 tonnes, well below total requirements estimated at more than half a million tonnes (including food, feed and seed requirements, plus losses and other uses). The per capita GDP (about US$ 200 in 2001), stagnated or falling since the 1998 border war, declined by an additional 2.8 percent in 2002 after severe drought induced the collapse of agricultural production, and grew but a mere 0.4 percent in 2003 (GDP growth just below 3 percent minus population growth of 2.6 percent). Per capita GDP growth in 2004 is also projected to be negative. Gross National Income per capita is estimated at US$ 160 for 2001-03, the same figure estimated for 1993-95.

Moreover, income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient is very high (0.45). The share of income spent on food is high: about 66 percent nationwide and about 71 percent for rural areas (such high figures are to be expected in poverty situations like Eritrea’s, but are indications of extreme food insecurity and limited access to food). On average over the past 11 years, domestic food production has met only a fraction of national requirements, and cereal production has met only about 40 percent of the total cereal requirements now estimated by the Government at 150 kg/person/annum. Food vulnerability has thus been increasing as the result of Eritrea’s extremely limited and declining commercial food import capacity on the one hand, and because people are facing more and more stressful situations in trying to cope, on the other. The 2002 cereal production of about 54 000 tonnes met less than 10 percent of the country’s requirements, and the 2004 output of about 85 000 is expected to cover just about 15 percent.

Household income and consumption is on average very low, a fact compounded by inequality: according to the Living Standard Measurement Survey taken in 2003, about 66 percent of the population had incomes or consumption below the poverty line, with extreme poverty afflicting 37 percent of the population with incomes below the extreme poverty line. The highest rates (81 percent and 42 percent respectively) were observed in secondary urban centres (other than Asmara), while the capital had 55 percent poverty and rural areas 64 percent. Nearly one-half of the adult population is illiterate; over half of all women aged 15–49 have never attended school.

The macro-economic environment is under severe pressure from high external and public-sector domestic debts which currently represent some 80 percent and 130 percent, respectively, of GDP, and the debts are increasing. The inflation rate (measured by the Asmara CPI) has been persistently high over the past few years, but is now increasing rapidly. While inflation was 23 percent in 2003, it reached 29 percent in the 12-month period up to September 2004, and the increase was led by food products: in the same period prices were up 37 percent for food, 58 percent for cereals and 83 percent for pulses. Food inflation seems also to be accelerating: the increase in food prices in the latest six months (March-September 2004) was proceeding at an annualized rate of 78 percent for all foods, 112 percent for cereals and 178 percent for pulses.

Figure 1. Eritrea: Consumer price index in Asmara: Percent change in the 12 months preceding each date

Inflation rates in the latest six months were also quite high for meat (77 percent) and fish (61 percent), much higher than in the 12 months to September (29 percent for meat and 37 percent for fish). At the time of the mission an extreme scarcity of fuel was being felt all across the economy, including difficulties for the timely transportation of food between different locations in the country, even if fuel prices (mostly controlled by the authorities) were not increasing at a rapid pace in recent months. The fuel crisis may contribute to further price increases in food, and larger price differentials between different zones. As Figure 1 suggests, food prices have been ahead of the general CPI since December 2003, and the rise in the price of cereals has been very steep along the latest six months.

The country’s official foreign exchange reserve is so low that it would not cover imports for more than one-half of one month. In 2002, the average reserve was about US$ 30 million (down from US$ 50 million in 2001), against a monthly average value of imports of about US$ 46 million, thus representing 0.7 months of imports. Official gross foreign reserves have been around US$ 16 million on average during 2003 and 2004, and are not expected to increase (rather the opposite) in the short run. At the time of the mission official gross foreign reserves represent 0.44 months of imports (about 13 days).

This extreme tightness of foreign currency reserves in the banking system has not stopped imports altogether. Resorting to various schemes, including soft credit from several countries in the region, Eritrea has managed to import goods for about US$ 400 million per year from 2000 to 2004; total imports in 2003 actually increased from US$ 400 to US$ 456 million in spite of the deteriorating reserve position, and projected imports in 2004 are about US$ 425 million. About a quarter of all imports are food, but the proportion is increasing since 2001, and is expected to reach 29 percent in 2004. Other important components of the import flow are fuel and defence purchases (about US$ 50 million each in 2004). The estimated increase in the value of food imports in 2004 is partly attributable to increasing international prices, and is compatible with a stable or slightly decreasing volume.

Table 1. Eritrea: Estimated value of imports, 2000-2004

There is little information on the precise physical composition of food imports. However, the bulk of the volume (but not of the value) is probably cereals, with vegetable oils also an important component.

The current account balance of payments is constrained by a hugely negative trade balance. Against more than US$ 400 million in imports, exports earned a mere US$12 million in 2003 and are expected to repeat the same amount in 2004; service flows (real or financial) yield a net outflow of US$ 5 million, US$ 6 million and US$ 14 million in 2002, 2003 and 2004 respectively. However, the country receives a steady flow of private transfers (remittances and taxes paid by Eritreans abroad) amounting to nearly US$ 300 million per year. Estimates of this flow do not show a clear tendency, since the amounts were more or less stable from 2000 to 2004, although a 10 percent decrease is estimated for 2004 (with receipts of US $276 million) relative to 2003 (US$ 308 million).²

The current official exchange rate for most transactions is Nakfa (Nkf) 13.55 to the US dollar, but there is a preferential rate of Nkf 19 for Eritreans receiving remittances, and the prevailing parallel market rates are much higher (at Nkf 23 per US dollar at the time of the mission). The main export items include salt, semi-processed leather goods, flowers, livestock and textiles. A wide range of items are imported, including machinery and transport equipment, spare parts, food, manufactured goods, intermediate goods, oil and chemical products. The collapse of Eritrea’s regional export trade, given that the borders with Ethiopia and Sudan are closed, is a major constraint on the country’s economy and its short-term prospects. Ethiopia used to be Eritrea’s major export destination; but the border conflicts with Ethiopia have closed this outlet. An upturn in exports to Sudan in 2002 led to an increase in export earnings to US$ 52 million for that year, compared with an annual average of US$ 26 million during 1998–2001; export earnings in 2004 estimated at a mere US$ 16 million were less than 5 percent of the total value of imports for the same year.

In conclusion, widespread and deep-seated poverty, very low incomes, large food deficits, severely constrained agriculture, extremely limited export earnings, high rates of persisting inflation, heavy and increasing external and internal debts, and social constraints (in terms of lower educational and health status, poverty and inequality), have resulted in grim prospects for Eritrea. The protracted situation of 'no war-no peace' with Ethiopia is a major factor constraining the economy, in several ways (increased defence expenditure, high level of military mobilization, restricted foreign markets, etc.). Moreover, the macroeconomic situation is worsening because of increasing indebtedness, increasing debt-servicing requirements (especially because the grace period for many past loans is now expiring requiring amortization to start), possibly a decreasing amount of revenue from Eritreans abroad (especially the portion paid as taxes, since private remittances are likely to continue albeit more of them through informal channels), an increasing gap between official and black market exchange rates, accelerating inflation and fuel shortages and rationing.

The government is aware of the constraints and the policy directions needed to overcome them, as can be seen from the evolving Food Security document, Poverty Reduction Strategy and other policy documents. These documents recognize that substantial foreign assistance will be needed for Eritrea to address its constraints and promote economic and social development; exactly how to accomplish this will need to be worked out jointly by the government and its external development partners.

The international community has been assisting Eritrea in the following areas already: rehabilitating the war-affected population (particularly returning refugees and internally displaced people) and war-damaged infrastructure and development facilities; promoting agricultural production through measures such as seed distribution, rehabilitation of veterinary services and demonstration of conservation agriculture techniques around the country; meeting emergency needs through food aid, among other measures; and supporting activities in the education and health sectors.

Much more assistance is needed, particularly so that the long-term socio-economic prospects of the country may be developed, but critical emergency needs must not be neglected. The CAP process remains relevant. In addition, to achieve poverty reduction and food security and accelerate economic and social development, longer-term strategic and programme-based financial and technical assistance is needed. Much will depend on constructing a practical environment for the Government of Eritrea and external development partners to work together purposefully. In that context, resolving the border dispute, demobilization, and socio-economic restructuring are crucially important issues.

2.1 Population estimates

According to the 2001 Government's population count (no population census was ever taken), the total population of Eritrea was then estimated at about 3.19 million people. Natural demographic growth per year for 2001 to 2005 is estimated at 2.6 percent, down from 2.9 percent in the late 1990s due to reduced birth rate (average of 32 per thousand population according to the 2002 National Demographic and Health Survey, down from 35 estimated by a similar survey in 1995) and not matched by reductions in mortality. Immigration is mostly equivalent to returning refugees, estimated at a total of 146 000 between mid 2001 and mid 2004, of which 69 000 sponsored by UNHCR, 25 600 spontaneous but registered by UNHCR, and an estimated 51 000 spontaneous and not registered. Emigration outflow was estimated at a yearly 0.4 percent of the population (about 14 000 people per year). The population count in 2001, performed at local administration level, yielded the following totals, complemented here with the mission's 2004 and 2005 estimates.

Table 2. Eritrea: population estimates in 2001 and projections in 2004 and 2005

Natural growth is estimated to be slower in Zoba Maekel due to lower fertility in Asmara, but this is compensated by higher inflows of internal migration towards the capital and higher refugee resettlement there. As a result, in the absence of more precise information, population is assumed here to grow at the same rate in all zobas during the 2001-2005 period.

2.2 The agricultural sector

Agriculture is the most vital sector in Eritrea despite a rather small estimated contribution of only 12–15 percent to national GDP. The crop and livestock sectors together employ the vast majority of the population and provide the basis for food security. However, domestic food production even in good years remains well below the requirements, and the country relies heavily on commercial imports and food aid.

Arable land in Eritrea is estimated at just over 2 million ha. But given the limited and usually erratic rainfall (in terms of quantity as well as in temporal and geographical distribution) and the extremely limited irrigation facilities, the maximum area ever cultivated was only about 500 000 ha. Usually the cultivated cereal area amounts to somewhat less than 400 000 ha. Given that Eritrea’s agriculture is mostly rain fed, agricultural production is heavily dependent on weather conditions, particularly rainfall.

There are three distinct rainy seasons in Eritrea: October to February in the eastern lowlands (winter, or bahri rains); March to May in the highlands (spring or azmera rains); and June to September over the whole country apart from the coastal plain (summer or kremti rains). The kremti rains are by far the most important for agricultural production. Normally, rainfall varies between 400 mm and 600 mm per year in the highlands and between 200 mm and 300 mm per year in the western lowlands; coastal rainfall ranges from 0 mm to 300 mm. Rainfall patterns in the western lowlands and central highlands are broadly similar with most of the rainfall concentrated in July and August during the kremti season.

Crop production is predominantly cereal based, with barley, wheat and taff grown in the highlands and sorghum and millet grown at lower altitudes; some maize is also produced at intermediate altitudes. Limited areas of chick peas and beans are grown, mainly in the central highlands, while in the south of Gash Barka sesame is locally important.

The country has no perennial rivers or streams. Irrigation coverage is extremely limited (less than 2 percent of the total cultivated areas). Since irrigation is very largely dependent on surface water, the productive area in any year closely reflects the amount of rainfall received in the highlands. There are some micro-dams in the highlands that also depend on rainfall. Use of groundwater is obviously a possibility, but knowledge of groundwater resources is limited. Appropriate survey studies to determine the availability of groundwater, replenishment prospects and how much could be utilized for irrigation and in which areas would be very useful.

Eritrea's agricultural productivity continues to be very low because of the country's fragile rainfall regime, its often poor and shallow soils, the use of unsophisticated cultivation methods and only limited use of agricultural inputs. The border conflict with Ethiopia has also rendered an estimated 12 000 ha in Debub and most of the sub-region of Lalai Gash in Gash Barka completely unusable because of unexploded landmines. Mobilization of young people for national service has depleted the agricultural workforce in many areas.

Livestock production is an extremely important sector of the rural economy, especially in the more arid areas of the country. Although the largest herds are in the lowlands, the overall herding pattern is characterized by seasonal movement, both within the lowlands and between the lowlands and the highlands, to search for grazing areas. The principal animals are sheep and goats, followed by cattle, camels, donkeys and horses. On average, rural households possess between 3–5 sheep and/or goats. Apart from work oxen, which are often put to graze in areas specially reserved for them, most livestock are raised on an extensive system that relies on natural pasture and crop residues. As a result, there is a marked annual fluctuation in stock condition which reflects the availability of fodder and water. Livestock numbers are said to have increased in the years immediately after independence, then fallen during the two years of conflict with Ethiopia. Since then, the numbers may have risen again but sharply declined in 2002 as a consequence of severe drought, thus bringing down livestock numbers to about the same levels of 1997. Pastoralists tend to over-stock, despite the frequent shortages of fodder and water, as they usually put more store by numbers than by condition; they are often reluctant to sell off stock even when times are hard. The border conflict with Ethiopia has largely halted the movement of livestock both to traditional grazing lands across the border and to grazing areas within Eritrean territory that are still mined; it has also closed important livestock trade routes.

In addition to smallholder agriculture, the government also allocates land concessions to investors to enable crop production over relatively large areas. Concessions vary in size depending on location and water availability (rain fed or irrigated) as well as on crops. Those near seasonal river beds normally measure between 10–30 ha and produce vegetables (onions, okra, carrots, etc.) and fruits (bananas, oranges, etc.), while those in arid or semi-arid areas can be as large as 400 ha and are used primarily for cereals or oilseed crops. The contribution of concession agriculture to the country's food economy, however, is not significant, and yields are often mediocre. Besides, the public sector also holds several state farms in various parts of the country. Many are devoted to dairy and vegetable production, but some are for extensive cereal production. The Mission has not been able to visit public sector cereal farms, though it was able to see some of the dairy and vegetable ones near Keren, Tesseney and Dekemhare. The Mission was also not given any figures for the production of cereals in State farms.

3. FACTORS AFFECTING FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2004

3.1 Rainfall

Rainfall in Eritrea has been low and erratic in recent years, and generally has shown a decreasing trend over the last decade or so. Yearly rainfall rates have been decreasing since the late 1990s, falling from about 500 mm to nearly 200 mm for the average of various gauging stations.

Figure 2. Eritrea: Average annual rainfall 1992 to 2004 (mm per year)

The 2004 agricultural season started poorly with widespread failure, for the sixth year in succession, of the bahri rains along the north-eastern escarpment. These rains are normally expected between November and March and are especially important for the Northern Red Sea Region. This was followed by generally unsatisfactory azmera rains for the sixth time in succession since 1998, the last “good year”; these are light rains that usually fall between March and May, but they are important for land preparation in the highlands. The 2004 azmera season was evaluated as below normal to near normal due to the poor distribution of the season's rainfall over time. Most of the rains fell during April while March and May remained literally dry. Only some areas of Debub and Maekel Regions received some amount of precipitation during the month of April, while elsewhere, in Gash Barka, Anseba and most areas of Debub and Maekel, the azmera rains were either insignificant or non-existent. As a result, land preparation was widely postponed and in those areas that did receive some azmera rains, such as around Adi Keih, Tsorona and Senafe, extensive re-planting was often involved, following the emergence and subsequent desiccation of seedlings since there was very little or no rainfall during the May and until mid-June in these areas. This also resulted in much lower-than-average plantings of long season and high-yielding crops such as sorghum, maize, taff and finger millet. Farmers instead planted barley, wheat and summer taff, which yield less, and legumes such as horse beans and fenugreek, flax and chick peas.

Figure 3. Eritrea: Monthly average rainfall in selected areas in 2004 compared with 12-year long-term average

The kremti rains, which are expected to fall from June to September over the highlands and western lowlands, arrived late in June to early July and stopped early in the first dekad of September. The rainfall performance during the Kremti season has been poor in terms of distribution as well as intensity. Farmers prepared their fields after the few showers in April. By early June the long cycle crops planted in March and April seriously suffered from lack of moisture. The continued dry spell in May, the first two dekads of June and the first dekad of July have adversely affected the long cycle crops that started to wilt due to moisture stress and the normal development of the vegetation thus affecting the availability of grazing and browsing possibilities for livestock.

The kremti season which normally receives rainfall over twelve dekads, was limited to only five dekads of rainfall this year. The southward movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is the main synoptic feature of the Kremti rainy season, restricted the rainfall activities to the southern and south-western part of the country during September. For September, the recorded rainfall amounts were generally below normal and uneven in terms of spatial and temporal distribution. Although September is not known to receive heavy rains, it usually gets good showers up to 70 mm that help the plants in their last vegetative and flowering stages. In fact these showers are so crucial especially for the crops that were planted late due to the delayed onset of the rains. Contrary to farmer’s expectations the rainfall during the first week of September was only 1-15 mm throughout the Kremti areas. This had really cast off the expectations of many farmers who were expecting for the continuation of the rains well into September hoping to compensate the delayed onset of the rains. During the second dekad of September only Gash Barka and western part of Debub received 16-40 mm of rains while the rest of the Kremti areas received only 1-15 mm of rainfall which was too little for the crops that were at their flowering and seed setting stage. Rainfall at this stage is crucial for the crops because they are extremely vulnerable to moisture stress. The third dekad of September was much drier than the previous two thus confirming the fear that the harvests for the current season will be far more less than what was expected. Unfortunately the poor performance of the Kremti season adversely affected the expected harvest this year even in the most potential grain growing areas of Gash Barka and Debub.

The pulse crops such as chick peas and vetch and late planted short cycle crops are also suffering from moisture stress due to the poor rainfall in September. In Debub Zoba, beneficial showers only began from the second dekad of July. June is the optimum time for planting long-cycle cereal crops in the highlands, so this delay resulted in very serious implications for both planted area and yield expectation. Some areas of Debub Zoba received exceptionally high rainfall during July and August. In Adequala, Debub zoba, rainfall from March to September amounted to 568 mm, with 170 and 283 mm, respectively, in July and August. However, this pattern was not repeated in the more important cropping areas such Goluj in Gash-Barka, where July and August rainfall was only 54 mm and 113 mm against an average for the previous five years of 127 mm and 137 mm, respectively. The overall result of this year's rainfall pattern has been a significant reduction of the area under long-cycle sorghum varieties, which would normally have been planted in June. Late and inadequate rains in the highlands have also led to significant reductions in the area under spate irrigation along the coastal strip as a result of the greatly reduced run-off.

3.2 Area planted

The total area planted to cereals this year in Eritrea was 393 163 ha. which is slightly lower compared to 2003 (405 859 ha,) but still high compared to the average of 360 000 ha for the previous 11 years from 1992 to 2003 and also higher than 2002 (344 000 ha). The area planted to cereals in Gash-Barka and Debub was similar to 2003 at 180 457 ha. and 134 287 ha. respectively, and was assisted by seed distributions from FAO and national and international NGOs. The area planted to cereal crops in Northern Red Sea this year declined to 11 550 ha. compared to 13 990 ha. during 2003 due to lower rainfall in highlands and much lower number of floods. The area planted to cereals in Maekel also declined from an average of about 33 000 ha to 21 909 ha because of the late arrival of the rains which caused farmers to lose hope after so many years of poor rains.

3.3 Means of production and inputs

Farm power

Large numbers of oxen were reported to have died from starvation and the effects of drought during 2002, and many farmers reported having sold oxen to survive, after a succession of bad harvests in 2002 and 2003 and also because they had no feed for them; this has left a large gap in the availability of farm power. Farmers have been cooperating with their neighbours in sharing the oxen available for ploughing and threshing. The Mission saw many instances of four to five oxen, or a combination of oxen, donkeys and even horses being used in the traditional threshing process. Camels are also extensively used for ploughing. Some tractors provided by a bilateral donor to MOA are made available on credit to farmers who become agricultural contractors for their neighbours. For use of these tractors MOA/Contractor charges 150 to 200 Nakfa/hr (one hour is generally considered sufficient to plough 0.5 hectares). Commercial hire is consistently more expensive, ranging from about 250 to more than 350 Nakfa/hr. Such high prices are too high for small farmers and often result in under-utilisation of both arable areas and existing farm power. In Gash Barka and parts of Debub, a certain dependency on tractor services is building up and this often leads to delayed planting. In Debub, tractor-assisted land preparation for taff is not of the necessary quality, resulting in poor establishment of plants. There is an increasing dependency on tractor power which, given the small size of farms (0.75 ha on average in Debub) is uneconomical.

Labour

The shortage of labour was observed everywhere. The main cause of this shortage is the conscription of men into defence forces and national service for long periods of time. The army does provide assistance in crop harvesting and threshing, but the extent of this assistance was difficult to ascertain. Due to continued critical shortage of labour, the wage rates this year have been observed to be very high ranging from 30 to 50 Nakfa/day for digging wells or for house construction activity. Since farmers cannot afford to pay such high wages for different farming activities; critical field operations such as weeding have generally been neglected. Eritrea has a very high incidence of female-headed households, which are often dependent on hired labour to cultivate their land on a share-cropping basis. This is further enforced by the traditional disapproval of a woman operating a plough, especially in the highlands.

Irrigation

The area under horticultural crops production in Eritrea this year (mainly small pumped irrigation schemes in Debub, Anseba and Maekel, where crops of potatoes, tomatoes and other vegetables) has been estimated by MOA at around 6 407 ha (1 315 ha under fruit production and 5 092 ha under vegetable production). Although, in normal rainfall years another 7 000 ha is generally planted, chiefly with cereals, under spate irrigation in the Northern Red Sea Zoba, it is estimated that this year only about 3 740 ha has been planted under spate irrigation due to low intensity and poorly distributed kremti rains in highlands, resulting in fewer and poorer floods. There are about 200 micro-dams in the highlands, but only 30 or so are used for irrigation; the others are used as sources of domestic water use for people and livestock. This year also they started to fill late, causing delayed planting and prolonged water stress among livestock. Water tables are reported to be dropping in many areas after three or more years of reduced rainfall. Water tables seem to have descended by about 6 meters on average in various regions. As noted above, there is considerable scope for water harvesting, primarily for domestic use and watering of livestock and also in suitable areas for small-scale irrigation.

Seed

The successive droughts of 2002 and 2003 caused widespread crop failures and thus a huge seed deficit for the 2004 season. Most farmers use seed saved from the previous season's harvest, with the concomitant low yields expected from this practice, resulting from genetic deterioration and contamination by weed species. Very little improved or cleaned seed is used. The country has two small seed-processing facilities, one at Halhale and the other at Tesseney. This year only a small quantity of seed (2 916 tonnes during 2004 compared to 5 600 tonnes during 2003) were supplied by FAO and other national and international NGOs of the nearly 11 000 tonnes of national seed requirement. A serious shortage of seed is anticipated for next year as a result of this year's expected poor harvest. The prospects for farmer-saved seeds in 2004 are similar to that of last year, but in areas of total crop loss and very low yields substantial seed assistance will still need to be provided. Farmers located in about 30 to 40 percent of the overall crop area will need to be assisted with at least 4 000 to 5 000 tonnes of seeds of sorghum, pearl millet, wheat, barley, taff and chickpea. Furthermore, in medium-potential areas, where the harvest is comparatively better, it will be necessary to undertake “seed protection” campaigns by which targeted food aid will be provided to vulnerable farmers to prevent the consumption of valuable seeds, which they would otherwise have saved for subsequent planting. In view of the crucial role of seed varieties adapted to the geographical area in the often fragile agro-ecological zones of Eritrea, it is also recommended that humanitarian agencies should immediately commence the procurement, cleaning and storage of good quantities of adapted local varieties currently available at the village level and at the farm gate before they enter into trade circles, after which they become mixed with other varieties and are no longer available in sufficient purity for these areas. These recommendations are considered critical so that farming in 2005 may resume for a large number of farmers whose continued seed insecurity will prolong the impact of the current and previous failed seasons. Recognizing that the yield potential of the seed in general use by farmers is a serious constraint to realizing higher production, the MOA introduced a National Seed Policy in May, 2002 with the primary goal of improving the production and distribution of improved seed, as well as suitably adapted seed varieties. In addition to this the mission is of the opinion that serious efforts should be initiated by MOA to organize a systematic seed multiplication programme at least in the important bread basket areas of Gash-Barka and Debub Zobas to multiply the few already identified promising cereal crop varieties by its research institute.

Fertilizers

The recommended fertilizer dressing for most of the country is 100 kg/ha of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 50 kg/ha of urea. Over some 400 000 Ha this would imply about 400 000 quintals of DAP and 200 000 quintals of urea. The total distribution of fertilizers by the Government of Eritrea since 1992, as provided by the Eritrean MOA, is summarized in the following table.

Table 3. Eritrea: Distribution of Fertilizers 1992 – 2004 (in quintals)*

During 2004, the government distributed only 11 734 quintals (1 173 tonnes) of the main fertilizers (compared to 3 267 tonnes distributed during 2003) comprising 750 tonnes of DAP and 423 tonnes of urea. The amount distributed represents about 2 percent of total recommended application. Fertilizer use is higher in the highlands than it is in the western lowlands. The government plays an important role in fertilizer procurement and distribution, while the private sector has not developed a major capability in this area. The low and erratic rainfall militates against the normal absorption of these nutrients by plants in many parts of the country and their effect on yields is not always guaranteed. Fertilizer is heavily subsidized in Eritrea, but many farmers still cannot afford to buy it, and in drought years most farmers abstain from applying urea.

Other agricultural inputs

The Government of Eritrea also provides inputs such as pesticides and farm implements to farmers. During 2004, a total of 4 596 litres of liquid pesticides were provided, along with 2 982 kg of powdered pesticides to control armyworms and chaffer-beetles mainly in Gash-Barka and Maekal Zobas.

3.4 Pests and diseases

Pests

Army worm and chafer beetles were the major pests, damaging sorghum, finger millet, maize, barley and pearl millet in Anseba, Gash Barka, Northern Red Sea and Maekel. According to MOA, severe incidence of these pests has affected an estimated area of 17 936 ha of various crops this year and in Gash-Barka Zoba alone 14 050 ha. of area was affected by these pests. MOA assisted farmers in aerial spraying of about 11 685 ha. with both liquid and powdered pesticides. Army worm also damaged scarce grazing resources in Northern Red Sea and Anseba.

Diseases

No major crop disease problems were reported.

Weeds

Striga and wild oats are the major weeds in Eritrea. Striga is widespread over the country and causes heavy losses in sorghum yields. The MOA is attempting to counteract this weed through introduction of crops such as sesame in rotation with sorghum. Wild oats is regarded by farmers as livestock forage and is not pulled as it should be. This automatically leads to lowered yields in barley and wheat in particular.

Weather damage

Severe hail damage has been reported to have occurred in Maekel, Debub, Anseba and parts of Gash Barka in July and August. The hail damage often occurred at flowering time and destroyed the cereal crop, usually barley or wheat, although some maize and sorghum crops were also severely damaged. Late rains in October/early November caused the catastrophic shedding of taff crops in Debub zoba, the main production area for this crop and other crops in parts of Gash Barka.

Table 4. Crop production in Eritrea, 1997-2004 (tonnes)

3.5 Crop production, 2004³

Most of crop production is controlled by smallholders. There are few relatively larger commercial farmers. There are also a number of State-owned farms producing mostly dairy and vegetables but also cereals, in various parts of the country.

Table 4 shows annual cereal and pulse crop production, from 1997 to 2003 along with the estimate for 2004. The table clearly illustrates the large variation from year to year in agricultural production. This year the expected cereal production is well below the average of the past twelve years since independence (180 000 tonnes), and about 20 percent lower than 2003 and about 56 percent more than the cereal production of 2002, the most severe drought year since 1992. Production of pulses this year is expected to be lower (4 270 tonnes) than last seven years (1997-2003) average of about 6 420 tonnes, as the rains ended earlier than usual particularly in Debub, the main production area for chickpea, the most important pulse crop.

Table 5. Eritrea: Cereal area, yield and production, 2004 by Region (Zoba)

Table 6. Eritrea: cereal area, yield and production in 2004 with production compared to the 12-year average

Figure 4. Eritrea - Cereal production, 1992-2004

3.6 Other food crops

Potatoes

Potatoes are grown in Maekel, Anseba and Debub, with total planted area in 2004 estimated at 885 ha. However, this crop requires irrigation for maximum yields. This year potato crops in Maekel exhibited good vegetative growth, but the number and size of tubers were reduced in many fields as a result of the premature ending of the rains in late August; this will significantly reduce yields.

Pulses

The total area planted with pulses this year is estimated at 28 806 ha and the estimated production from these pulse crops is 4 270 tonnes. Chick peas are by far the most important legumes. This drought-resistant crop is grown at the end of the kremti rains in August/September. This year, the rains tailed off in late-August leaving little residual moisture to support chick pea growth. Most pulse crops in Debub and Maekel, the main growing areas, also had poor growth and overall yield has thus been estimated at less than 0.2 ton per ha.

Table 7. Eritrea: Areas cropped to main pulse crops, 2004 (ha)

Oil seed crops

The main oil crop is sesame; a total of 33 723 ha is grown only in Gash Barka. This crop performed better than the cereal crops and is estimated to produce about 5 533 tonnes. Unlike most other crops grown in Eritrea, sesame has a ready market. The other oil crops are linseed and groundnut, with a total cropped area of 2 700 ha, of which 1633 ha (60 percent) is grown in Anseba and 791 ha (29 percent) is grown in Debub. As a result of the late and short duration of the rains, linseed crops were looking poor and are not expected to yield more than 0.1 ton per ha.

3.7 Livestock

The only livestock population figures available now are those obtained in the livestock survey of 1997, since no new livestock count has been conducted in Eritrea in recent years. Heavy losses of livestock in the current drought may have reduced the numbers, but no precise information is available.

Table 8. Eritrea: Estimated livestock population