FAO COMMODITY AND TRADE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER No. 10 |
|
|
Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round.
|
| |
|
|
|
| ABSTRACT The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement,
simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes
of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the
negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade
Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 5.4 database. Scenarios
are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of
events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural
markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically
attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The
policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on
the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations
in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural
trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions
between the possible strategies of two wide country groups � developed
and developing countries on the basis of game theory, and to search
for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement
hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both
by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country
compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be
reached. |
|
CONTENTS
|
|
FAO Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Papers are published by the Commodities and Trade Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). They are working documents and do not reflect the opinion of FAO or its member governments. Also available at http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/ Additional copies of this working paper can be obtained from [email protected]
|
|
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Publishing Management Service, Information Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla , 00100 Rome , Italy or by e-mail to [email protected]. © FAO 2004 |
|
