(Item 4 of the Agenda)
17. Michael COUGHLAN, Superintendent, National Climate Center, Australia, described the Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project supported by the Government of Australia. He said that it emphasized in-country training, the strengthening of client networks, and the prudent use of proven seasonal prediction systems to meet the needs of users in climate-sensitive industries. He pointed out that seasonal outlooks must have both value and quality, in the sense that users needed to be able to use the information in practical decision-making, as well as in understanding the limitations of the outlooks. The project was forging stronger links between the national meteorological services of the small Pacific island nations and their users, with sugar cane, grazing, fishing and pearling being among the target industry sectors.
18. Naoki MINAMIGUCHI, Vulnerability Analysis Coordinator (ASIA FIVIMS), described the application of geospatial and disaster information for food insecurity assessment and agricultural disaster warnings. These included the Advanced Real Time Environmental Monitoring and Information System (ARTEMIS), the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and Asia Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems (FIVIMS). He noted that drought caused the largest proportion of world food crises, and some 53 percent of those in Asia. He also observed the growing incidence of food crises due to human intervention. He outlined the various interpretive techniques employed and the growing resources, including time series satellite-derived data.
19. Shaobing PENG, Senior Crop Physiologist, International Rice Research Institute, spoke about the impact of global warming on rice productivity, as a result of the asymmetrical increase in nighttime (minimum) temperatures. He said that model simulations had suggested significant decreases in crop productivity under warm temperatures, and that experimental data had for the first time provided direct evidence of this effect. He noted that further research was now examining the possibility to develop new rice varieties that maintained yield despite increasing minimum temperatures.
20. M.V.K. SIVAKUMAR, Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), highlighted the increasing economic costs of natural disasters, and said that this trend was likely to continue well into the present century. He noted that around half of the global losses from this cause occurred in Asia, and explained the unique and successful Global Observing System (GOS) implemented by the WMO in order to facilitate better early warning systems to deal with this problem. He pointed to the role of new technology (such as satellites, ocean buoys, automatic weather stations, and better instruments on commercial aircraft) in improving the extent and temporal frequency of observations, and also the large improvements in the underpinning scientific understanding of the coupled atmospheric, oceanic and biospheric systems. He said that this improved science and technology base was leading to more valuable seasonal outlooks for agricultural and disaster management applications and emphasized the importance of improved knowledge management to enhance public awareness about weather and climate information and its applications in improved management of natural disasters.
21. Ajunapermal SUBBIAH, Team Leader, Climate Risk Management, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) spoke about various early warning products for disaster risk management, and seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts with emphasis on lead time and forecasting skills. He highlighted global and regional, as well as country specific, experiences on using the potential of seasonal forecasts and expressed the opinion that national level seasonal forecasts were useful, but cautioned that it is necessary for down scaling and appropriate value addition to these forecasts. He dealt at length on the relationship between El Niño and rice production or the impact of forest fires. He emphasized the importance of risk communication to strengthen the relationship between forecasters and user communities. He suggested the need to follow multi-hazard approaches for early warning with regard to tsunami, climate and weather forecasting to maximize the benefits from such systems and to use vulnerability maps for locating appropriately these systems.
