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FAO GLOBAL INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME |
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An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited DPR Korea from 28 September to 9 October to assess the 2004 main-crop harvest, forecast 2005 production of winter and spring crops (wheat, barley and potatoes) and estimate cereal import requirements for the 2004/05 marketing year (November/October), including food-aid needs.
The Mission, which was accompanied by an EU observer, interviewed government and cooperative-farm officials, and observed standing and harvested crops still in the field to assess yields. The Mission also visited schools, nurseries, hospitals, Public Food Distribution Centres, and the homes of rural and urban families. Out of the country’s 12 provinces, the FAO members of the Mission visited the eight that generally account for about 90 percent of the nation’s cereal and potato production. These provinces include North Pyongan, South Pyongan, North Hwanghae, South Hwanghae, North Hamgyong, South Hamgyong, Ryanggang, and Kangwon. The WFP members of the Mission visited the provinces in the north and north-eastern part of the country (North and South Hamgyong and Ryanggang), where household food insecurity was long assumed to be more acute than in other provinces. Discussions were held with staff of UN agencies, NGOs, resident diplomatic missions, and government officials at the national, provincial and county levels. For its assessment of vegetation and crop growing conditions, the Mission assessed the Spot-4 satellite images, NOAA Climate Prediction Centre charts and data, and FAO Artemis GIEWS dekadal vegetation indices as well as the local rainfall and temperature data.
Year 2004 was unremarkable for crop production. Rainfall was moderate at the beginning of the season and nursery preparation, transplanting and sowing were all timely. Heavy rains arrived in the second half of June and continued into August. These rains had an adverse effect on the winter wheat, which had not yet been harvested when they started, and also depressed potato yields. However, they contributed to the satisfactory growth of the main-season crops. Drier and sunny conditions, facilitating timely harvest, prevailed after mid-August and into October. Crops this year were relatively free of pests and diseases.
Irrigation was adequate throughout the season, the result of better electricity supplies and good rainfall. Construction of the Kechan-Taesong Lake canal funded by the OPEC completed last year improving gravity irrigation facilities in the main Cereal Bowl region of the country. The mechanisation situation, however, showed no improvement, and it appears that the limit of double-cropping, which is highly dependent on tractor power, may have been reached. Fertilizer use was slightly lower than last year.
As a combined effect of the above factors, total production for the year 2004/05 is expected to be slightly higher than that of 2003/04, with paddy showing an increase of about 5.6 percent. Maize production is similar to last year, and main-crop potato production is down more than 9 percent. The excessive wet conditions prevailing early in the season were beneficial for paddy but affected negatively other crops to a varying degree. The national farm total this year is forecast at 4.959 million tonnes (using the figure for paddy rather than milled rice). A further 50 000 tonnes has been added for household garden production and 55 000 tonnes for sloping-land production. This brings the overall national total to 5.064 million tonnes (or 4.235 million tonnes in milled rice terms), an increase of 2.9 percent on last year’s revised harvest. It should, however, be noted that the national food-availability estimates for the coming year include forecasts for winter and spring-sown crops which will not be harvested until the second quarter of 2005. The contribution of these crops to the national total is about 10 percent. The production estimate would need to be revised once the harvest outcome of these crops is known.
Despite the good outcome, the 2004 cereal and potato production still remains well below the total consumption and other needs of the country estimated at 5.132 million tonnes (including milled rice) for 2004/05 marketing year (Nov./Oct.). This would result in an import requirement of 897 000 tonnes. Commercial imports are estimated at only 100 000 tonnes due to low import capacity of the country, while concessional imports are estimated at 300 000 tonnes. This leaves a cereal deficit of 497 000 tonnes, of which, 170 000 tonnes are either pledged or on hand already.
Over the past 1-2 years, the WFP Country Office has been able to gather a considerable amount of data on household food security in DPRK and excerpts from its analysis of that data are presented in this report. The Mission relied on this analysis for its assessment, together with its own observations.
Since the introduction of economic policy adjustments implemented in mid-2002, both informal and semi-formal markets have mushroomed dramatically, providing produce from private plots and other goods and services, and thus opportunities to obtain food commodities outside of PDS and State Shops have also increased. On the other hand, food prices in the market have sky rocketed and many urban workers are suffering a reduction in their already meager household income as a result of the downward trend in industrial productivity. After spending two thirds of their income on food, and adopting a wide range of coping strategies, a large segment of PDS-dependent households are still not able to cover their basic energy requirements, let alone their nutrient requirements.
In earlier years, the considerable shortage in the national availability of cereals due to natural disasters was used as reference point for estimating the need for external food assistance. The continuing national shortage is still a problem and therefore external food aid is in part seen within the context of overall domestic availability. However, given that the lack of access to basic and nutritious food because of declining purchasing power is increasingly becoming the most critical problem for poor households, assistance to the food-insecure population of DPRK should now be determined more by their household food gap than the national food gap in cereal production.
The economic recovery that began in 1999 continued for the fifth year in a row with an estimated GDP growth rate of 1.8 percent in 2003 following a growth of 1.2 percent the year before (see table 1). With a steady growth in the economy the country has just reached the per capita income level of US$ 811 achieved in 1997. The population suffered from a decline in per capita income of nearly 30 percent in 1998 compared to the year before. The DPR Korea had experienced a severe economic decline since early 1990s with unfavourable changes in trade with its traditional partners in the former USSR and Eastern Europe combined with major natural disasters affecting agricultural output in 1996, 1997 and 2000.
Total trade deficit increased from a low level of US$ 448 million in 1997 to a record high of US$ 1.02 billion in 2001 with a sharp improvement in 2002 and 2003 million (see Table 1). Trade with the Republic of Korea (ROK) has increased substantially over the years (for example, about US$ 724 million in 2003; not included in Table 1). ROK is now the North’s number two overall trade partner (after China) and a top export destination. However, these and other positive developments such as improvement in the nutritional levels of children as outlined in the results of the Nutrition Assessment 2002 are not enough to tackle the chronic food insecurity problems for the general population.
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | |
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Estimated Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (% real change) |
-6.3 | -1.1 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
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Agriculture, forestry & fishing : GDP Growth Rate (% real change) |
-3.8 | 4.1 | 9.2 | -1.9 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| GDP per head (US$) | 811 | 573 | 714 | 757 | 706 | 762 | 818 |
| Total Merchandise Exports (US$ m) | 1 025 | 644 | 597 | 708 | 826 | 735 | 800 |
| Total Merchandise Imports (US$ m) | 1 473 | 1 170 | 1 212 | 1 686 | 1 847 | 1 525 | 1 600 |
| Total Trade Deficit (US$ m) | 448 | 526 | 615 | 978 | 1 021 | 790 | 800 |
Agriculture, including forestry and fisheries, contributes about 30 percent of GDP. The performance of this sector has been erratic with negative growth rates in 1997 and in 2000. Over the past several years, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, tidal surges, hail storms, typhoons and extremely cold winters have affected agriculture with varying degree of severity, with consequent adverse impacts on food production. Also the precarious foreign exchange situation has not allowed significant commercial imports of much needed agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, pesticides, plastic sheeting, spare parts for machinery, tyres for tractors and trucks, fuel, etc. Over the years domestic production of fertilizer has declined to a level of about 10 percent of total requirement, increasing reliance on fertilizer donations. Much needed lime application to improve fertility of acidic soils is severely constrained by lack of transport facilities and fuel availability. Yields of the main crop (paddy) used to be around 7 or 8 tonnes per ha during the 1980s, but now they are about half of that due to lack of agricultural inputs. In order to increase total food production in the country, every possible piece of cultivable land including plots with extremely high slopes in the mountainous areas is being brought under production. However, cultivation of marginal lands has had unintended consequences of soil erosion and further reduction in overall land productivity. The total food gap in the last 10 years has ranged from just under one million tonnes this year to just over two million tonnes in 2000/01. Thus productivity improvement is desperately needed. Double cropping of wheat and barley after rice and maize (cereal after cereal) on already exhausted soils is non-sustainable and has already reached its limits. Introduction of leguminous crops in the crop rotation is vital. It is therefore recommended that comprehensive soil fertility management program including use of fertilizer, lime, farm yard manure, green manuring crops and rotations involving leguminous crops be undertaken.
Mechanization on the farms perhaps represents the biggest challenge and biggest potential in DPRK. Not only the number of tractors is declining but about 50 percent of tractors are non-operational due to shortage of spare parts, tyres and fuel. The obsolete and decaying farm machinery need rehabilitating or systematic replacing. Judging from the area planted in last few years the double cropping seems to have reached its maximum level exacerbated by lack of farm power. Vast improvement in farm machinery capacity, perhaps with the help of joint ventures, may provide solution to eliminating the structural food deficit in the country.
In July 2002 the Government announced substantial increases in wages, prices and currency exchange rate from previously highly subsidised or artificially low levels2. Agricultural commodities were also affected by this economic policy adjustment. Accordingly, rice and maize prices in the public distribution centres were raised to 46 won and 24 won per kg, respectively, compared to about 0.9 and 0.7 won/kg before July 2002. Farm gate prices after the adjustment are 29 won/kg for paddy (or 42 won for rice) and 20 won/kg for maize. Prices of various inputs such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, electricity, etc. went up but generally seem to have resulted in better overall economic incentives to farmers. Cash crops such as tobacco and cotton provide relatively greater profitability than the usual staple crops; however, their cultivation is restricted until the targets for staple cereals are met.
There has been an important market reform since June 2003 as farmers’ markets for the first time were officially recognised in the country. In addition to vegetables, potatoes and green maize from kitchen gardens, a variety of consumer goods are sold in these markets. Cooperative farms, however, do not have direct access to these markets to sell their staple food commodities (over and above their grain allocation for home consumption) because these have to be sold to the government procurement agency. Starting last year several consumer markets, where food and non-food items of all sorts are freely marketed, are opened in Pyongyang city. Maize and rice prices in one such market were 270 and 650 won/kg, respectively, on 8 October 2004. If allowed, farmers’ markets throughout the country can play an important role in this new incentive-based system. It is recommended that in addition to providing urgently needed food aid, the Government and the International Community enter into a policy dialogue to set an enabling framework to mobilize the economic, financial and other assistance needed to promote sustainable food production and overall food security.
In addition, the DPR Korea has implemented a policy of controlled economic liberalization on a limited scale in three selected special administrative zones in the country. These are Sinuiiju in the north-west bordering China as a free economic area, Mt. Kumgang in the south-east as tourist resort, and Kaesong in the south-west as an industrial zone. Transportation is being improved with re-connection of road and rail links to Seoul in the Republic of Korea. These special administrative zones are expected to generate economic growth. However, presently these are in their infancy and only time will tell what impact they will have, if any, on the economy.
The figures presented in the report of the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission of 2003 included production forecasts for the winter and spring crops that would be harvested in 2004. These figures were based on planned cropping areas and average yields from the previous five years. The actual production figures for these winter and spring crops, which have now been reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, show a 10.5 percent reduction of approximately 51 000 tonnes from a forecast 482 000 tonnes to 431 000 tonnes (see Appendix A, Table A1). In the CFSAM report of 2003, a double-counting error was introduced for Kaesong; an extra 10 000 hectares of paddy were attributed to Kaesong which had already been counted with South Hwanghae. Total annual production for 2003/04, which had been forecast at 4.156 million tonnes (rice as milled rice as opposed to paddy), is therefore revised to 4.079 million tonnes. The revised total production is 4.920 million tonnes including paddy and 50 000 tonnes of cereal production from household gardens and 55 000 tonnes on slopes.
The planned area of 201 000 ha of winter and spring crops for 2003/04 was planted, and with favourable weather conditions in the early months of 2004 it was anticipated that at least average yields would be achieved. However, heavy rains in many parts of the country in the third dekad of June interfered with the harvesting of winter wheat; there was considerable grain loss, with extensive germination on the wet soils of the field and some germination on the head. Production of winter wheat was consequently down by 15 000 tonnes (9 percent) compared to expectations, with South Hwanghae being worst affected. Potatoes, which tend to be harvested slightly later, were also hit by the wet conditions and showed a production 35 000 tonnes (14 percent) below that which had been forecast. The harvest of spring barley, however, was mostly completed before the onset of the heavy rains, and production was close to expectations.
The Korean peninsula has a continental climate. Average temperatures in DPR Korea vary from -19°C in winter (Ryanggang in January, the coldest month) to 25°C in summer (South Hwanghae in August, the hottest month). The frost-free period ranges from 160 to 190 days, depending on altitude and latitude, and determines the length of the cropping season and choice of crops. Average annual rainfall varies from 600-980 mm in the north and north-east (Jagang, Ryanggang, North and South Hamgyong Provinces) to 880-1300 mm in the centre, south-west and south-east (North and South Pyongan, Pyongyang, North and South Hwanghae, Kaesong and Kangwon Provinces). About 85 percent of all precipitation occurs during the spring-summer months, while 60 percent is distributed in June-September. Typhoons are a regular occurrence, the effects of which are usually felt at least once per growing season, usually in late summer or early autumn.
Rainfall in 2004 was generally satisfactory over most of the country (see Figure 1). February was slightly wetter than usual, but this was followed by a relatively dry spell in March and most of April. Conditions were then very promising until late June; precipitation was about average, rice nurseries had been established and spring crops planted in a timely manner, and winter wheat was maturing well. Then at the end of June, heavy rains fell, reducing winter-wheat and early-potato yields in many parts of the country. However, damage was largely limited to these two crops, and main-season crops mostly benefited from the continuation of good rainfall till early August. From mid-August, drier weather and clear skies favoured crop maturation and problem-free harvesting.
Although several typhoons passed close to DPR Korea during 2004, the country was fortunate enough to escape any significant damage.
Total land area in DPR Korea amounts to 122 543 sq km, of which the total cultivated land area is estimated at 17-18 percent, or slightly in excess of 2 million hectares. Approximately 1.4 million hectares are considered suitable for cereal cultivation, 300 000 hectares are under vegetable crops, some 160 000 hectares under fruit orchards and a considerable area is allocated to various other food and industrial crops such as mulberry, ginseng and tobacco. There is very limited scope for expanding cultivable areas. The Government has investigated the possibility of reclaiming some 300 000 hectares of tidal lands and another 200 000 hectares by terracing of mountainous areas, but due to the high cost involved, little progress has so far been made. However, the ongoing land re-alignment exercise has increased the paddy production area by about 2 per cent over the last six years.
Paddy
Paddy is now the most important crop of DPR Korea in terms of both area cultivated and production (though milled rice production is second to that of maize). Paddy is grown mainly in the central, south-western and south-eastern parts of the country (the lowland parts of North and South Pyongan, North and South Hwanghae, Pyongyang and Kaesong, collectively known as the "Cereal Bowl") and the narrow east coastal strip comprising parts of Kangwon, and North and South Hamgyong Provinces. Smaller areas are also cultivated in Jagang and Ryanggang Provinces.
Paddy is cultivated in the alluvial plains or on graded terraces equipped with irrigation control systems. Paddy fields vary in shape and size. However, a province-by-province realignment operation has been under way during the past six seasons in order to improve the layout of paddies. In many of the plains in North and South Pyongan, Pyongyang, Kangwon and South Hwanghae Provinces, smaller plots, generally varying in size between 0.25 and 0.5 hectares, have been transformed and re-aligned into well laid-out regular plots with uniform depth. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, land realignment has so far increased the overall paddy production area by about 60 000 hectares.
In 2004, the area under paddy was reported as 583 390 ha, the same as in 20033. In periods of severe water shortages, the paddy area may be reduced and subsequently planted with soya, or more drought-resistant crops such as sorghum and millet. However, this year, with good rainfall and adequate electricity supply for irrigation pumping stations, the whole area was utilised.
Maize
Maize, which is mainly produced under rainfed conditions, is more universally distributed than paddy. Until 1998, the area under maize amounted to some 630 000 hectares. Since then, however, the government has set lower maize planting targets in order to avoid expansion into lands with low potential. On such marginal lands, less moisture-demanding cereal crops and pulses have substituted maize, while on lands with higher potential, vegetables and main-season potato have entered into the crop rotations. This year’s maize area of 495 026 ha was virtually the same as that of last year.
Potato
Potatoes are grown as a spring (double) crop in the Cereal Bowl region, and as a summer crop in the cooler northern highlands (Jagang, Ryanggang), where a shorter growing season is experienced. As a double crop, potato is sown in March-April and harvested in June, while as a main crop it is sown in May-June and harvested in August-September. In response to the reduced productivity of the main cereals in the late 1990s, and in an attempt to boost carbohydrate production, the land under potato was increased in all the major agricultural areas. Availability of planting material is the single most important limiting factor to the expansion of the area under potato, as seed must be stored during the winter months, which can be particularly severe especially in the north of the country. Losses in storage run at a minimum of 10 percent and may be considerably higher. Potato blight regularly affects crops in some areas, as does aphid infestation. The maximum cultivable area of spring and main season crops under present conditions is around 190 000 hectares. The areas under spring and main-season potato this year were 98 180 hectares and 88 988 hectares respectively. An area of 99 150 ha under spring potatoes is planned for 2005.
Winter wheat and spring barley
Winter wheat and spring barley are produced in all provinces except Ryanggang and North Hamgyong. They were the main cereals in the Double-Cropping programme initiated in 1996 jointly by FAO and UNDP as part of the Government framework for agricultural recovery. The programme is considered, under present conditions, to be an effective strategy for enhancing food production. The aim of the programme is to utilise part of the agricultural land between October and June for winter and early cereal and potato crops which are then followed by maize and paddy from June to September. Efforts to increase the use of double-cropping led to an expansion of the double-cropped area under winter wheat, spring barley and spring potato from 38 000 hectares in 1997 to more than 201 000 hectares in 2002/03 (an increase of almost 530 percent). However, no further expansion has been reported this year and it would appear that, with the country’s current static or deteriorating mechanisation situation, a limit has been reached. Further increases in the extent of double-cropping will depend on an improvement in the country’s capacity to mechanise basic field operations.
Winter wheat is sown from the end of September to mid-October, immediately after the harvesting of the main-season crops. Factors influencing the area under winter wheat include autumn rainfall, timely availability of seed, and the availability of adequate farm power and labour at a time when the demand for labour is high for various other operations, especially the harvesting of paddy. Spring barley is sown in March. Both winter wheat and spring barley are harvested in the second half of June. Areas of 70 080 ha of winter wheat and 31 500 ha of spring barley are planned for 2004/05, compared with achieved areas of 68 575 ha and 34 289 ha respectively in 2003/04. This represents a decline in planned area of more than one percent.
Other crops
Other important crops produced in DPR Korea include summer wheat and barley, sorghum, millet, soybean, buckwheat, vegetables (mainly cabbage, spinach, radish, cucumber, eggplant and tomato) and fruit (mainly pears, peaches, apricots, apples and persimmons). Many farms also have sizeable mulberry plantations. The short agricultural growing season limits crop rotations and favours cereal mono-culture.
Summer wheat is grown in the higher-altitude parts of Jagang, Ryanggang, and North and South Hamgyong, where the growing season is relatively short.
At about 60 000 ha, the area under minor cereals and grains such as sorghum, various types of millet and summer wheat and barley is similar to that of last year.
Household gardens
Each cooperative farm household is entitled to a private garden of 30 pyong: this equates to about 100 square metres or 0.01 ha. There are approximately 1.67 million such households in the country. In addition, a significant proportion of urban dwellers also have access to garden plots, albeit usually smaller than those cultivated by farm households. In the absence of more reliable quantitative data, it is therefore assumed that the country’s total household-garden area amounts to about 25 000 hectares. A typical pattern of cultivation in these gardens is an early crop of potatoes and green maize, followed by vegetables such as cabbage, peppers, radish and garlic. The contribution of kitchen gardens to the total in terms of cereal equivalent is relatively small and their importance is more likely to be in the area of nutrition and household income than in that of bulk. However, crops in kitchen gardens are usually well cared for and yields of maize and potato may be expected to be higher than those achieved in the field. Assuming yields of 4 t/ha for maize and potato on half of the country’s kitchen garden area, production from this source would result in an extra 50 000 tonnes. Recognizing the fact there is great deal of uncertainty associated with this figure, for the time being, the Mission considers this a reasonable approximation of production to be added to the total farm production.
Crop production on sloping land
In recent years, crop and food-supply assessment missions have discussed, with government officials, the contribution that cropping on land with a slope in excess of 15 degrees may make to overall national food production. Such cultivation is technically illegal, but the authorities turned a blind eye to it in the late 1990s when domestic food production was especially low and families faced severe hardship. The practice is said to have been diminishing for the last four years, and Government is carrying out a vigorous campaign of reforestation through the Ministry of Lands and Environmental Protection (MoLEP). Nevertheless, slope cultivation is still very evident in many parts of the country. In recognition of this fact, and in anticipation of a gradual phasing-out of the practice, MoLEP has apparently drawn up a register of users, most of whom are said to be from the non-farming population.
There are considerable difficulties in estimating crop production from sloping land in DPR Korea, but the issue is starting to be addressed by a group of interested people from international organisations, known as the Green Table, in discussions with MoLEP. A tentative figure of between 600 000 and one million hectares under sloping-land cultivation has been initially suggested, but this estimate, the equivalent of between 50 and 80 percent of the total area of cultivated flat land, strikes the current mission as being excessive. One of the problems associated with the estimation of sloping-land cultivation is its highly visible nature, which tends to exaggerate its extent. Not only is the contrast between naturally vegetated hillside and cultivated patch very stark, but a slope presents a wider angle of view to an observer on the ground than does a similar area of flat land. Additionally, in terms of productivity (though not of environmental damage), a slope with cultivated patches can present a misleading picture since not all the visible patches may have been productive within the last twelve months. Again with respect to productivity, many factors conspire to suggest very low yield expectations; most sloping-land soils may be assumed to be shallow, of low fertility and subject to severe erosion, and planting material and other inputs to be of poor quality; and since most cultivators are not from agricultural backgrounds, husbandry may be expected to be of a low standard.
Individual estimates, based purely on observation in North Hamgyong and Ryanggang provinces by resident aid workers, suggest that slope cultivation should add about 30 percent and 20 percent respectively to the officially recorded cultivated areas of these provinces. If half of the cultivated sloping land was planted to maize and potatoes, then the area under these two crops in these two provinces would be equivalent to about 12.5 percent of their combined farm land. Since Ryanggang and North Hamgyong almost certainly have a larger proportion of sloping-land to flat-land cultivation than most other provinces, the figure of 12.5 percent should probably be further reduced to about 6 percent if it is to be applied nationally. However, yields (of maize and potatoes) on the slopes are thought to be as low as 25 percent of those achieved on the flat land of the cooperative farms. Applying a yield of 25 percent to an area of 6 percent results in a production figure equivalent to approximately 1.5 percent of the production achieved on farms nationally during the main season. This argument is admittedly based on a number of assumptions, but in the absence of more reliable data, the approximate figure of 1.5 percent, which this year equates to an additional 55 000 tonnes, is used. Establishing a range to connote uncertainty of this number would be even more difficult.
Livestock
Livestock numbers in DPR Korea have remained fairly static over the last 12 months apart from in the area of poultry where significant expansion is evident (see Appendix Table A2). With a slight drop (2 percent) in the number of draught cattle, one would have hoped to see a corresponding increase in the number of operational tractors, but this has not been the case (see ‘Farm power’ below). Despite an expressed policy of reducing numbers of pigs because they make demands on grain supplies, the pig population has increased marginally. Since most farms visited by the mission reported a reduction in pig numbers, it must be assumed that the national increase reflects increased numbers of pigs in private ownership. Numbers of ducks and geese are reported to have increased by 12 and 27 percent respectively during the past year, again mostly in private ownership.
Planting material
In DPR Korea, a certain amount of suitable paddy and hybrid maize seed, produced by specialised cooperative or state farms, is provided on credit each year to producer cooperative farms through the Government’s distribution system. This year, seed was available on time, and correct sowing dates were observed. However, the opportunity to acquire new seed is limited by finances and availability, and most cooperative farms use a high proportion of home-produced seed.
Paddy is typically planted in nurseries at the beginning of April and transplanted in late May or early June. Seed rates are high at 150 kg/ha, purportedly to compensate for low soil fertility. The availability of plastic sheeting to protect nursery seedlings from low temperatures and desiccating winds was similar to that of last year. Rainfall and temperatures were favourable this year for nurseries and transplanting, the only reported constraint being some localised attacks of water weevil. Varieties are selected to complement the conditions of the soil in which they will be grown. Consequently in recent years varieties of rather lower yield potential have been grown, reflecting the below-optimum fertility status of most soils and the possibility that they may have to contend with adverse soil-moisture conditions during the growing season.
Hybrid maize is planted at between 40 and 50 kg/ha, giving a plant population of 35 000 - 50 000 per hectare.
Potato planting material in DPR Korea is often of poor quality and seeding rates are lower than recommended because of supply shortages. The practice of cutting tubers into four pieces for seed not only depresses yield but also encourages disease infestation (see ‘Pest and disease control’ below). These shortcomings are reflected in the low yields obtained - usually about 10 t/ha fresh weight nationally for the spring crop and 12 t/ha fresh weight for the main crop.
Sufficient seed for planting the planned area of winter wheat is said to be available. The nationally recommended seed rate for both wheat and barley is 150 kg/ha.
Fertilizer and soil fertility
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 230 173 nutrient tonnes of fertilizer were used in DPR Korea during 2004, compared with 244 512 in the previous year - a 6 percent reduction (see Figure 2). Of the total 72 percent (165 810 tonnes) was provided as humanitarian assistance by the Republic of Korea (137 220 tonnes), the European Union (21 362 tonnes), FAO and various NGOs. Domestic production amounted to 56 524 nutrient tonnes, a 75 percent increase on last year. This was reflected in a substantial reduction in commercial imports (8 161 tonnes as opposed to 37 706 tonnes last year). Of the total used, 67 percent was nitrogen, mostly in the form of urea; 16 percent was phosphorus; and 17 percent was potassium.
All farms visited by the mission reported using slightly less fertilizer this year than last, reflecting the country’s slightly reduced total consumption. Typical fertilizer application rates this year in the Cereal Bowl provinces ranged from 360 to 450 kg ammonium sulphate equivalent per hectare of paddy (about 155 to 195 kg per hectare of urea, the most commonly used product), with similar, or slightly lower, rates for maize.
The policy of the Government regarding fertilizer distribution is based on two main principles. It should be equitably distributed, and, within the constraints of availability, it should be allocated according to each area’s production potential. If, therefore, fertilizer is given by a donor for use in a particular province, the Government will adjust that province’s allocation from the national pool according to its guiding principles. The use of fertilizer by province during 2004 is shown in Appendix Table A3.
Considering the amount of fertilizer that is applied to rice and maize, especially in the Cereal Bowl, yields remain low. The mission suspects that the acidity of the soils may be a contributory factor. Farm soil analyses are carried out every three years, and several farm chairmen cited soil pHs of between 4.5 and 5.5. Chairmen are generally well aware that such low pHs represent a severe constraint to crop production, and attempt to remedy it by applying lime. However, most are limited, by lack of transport, to applying about half a tonne of lime per hectare every three years, which they acknowledge is insufficient. In a highly acid soil environment, nutrient elements are immobilised and made unavailable to the plant with the result that applied fertilizer has minimal effect; in the case of urea, applications may even increase the acidity of the soil. The Mission recommends that this issue be investigated and that consideration be given to facilitating the application of lime, chiefly through provision of transport from quarry to farm, in order to ensure that applied fertilizer is effectively utilised.
Pest and disease control
The year 2004 was, according to farm management, relatively free of crop pests and diseases. Some farms in North and South Hamgyong reported heavier-than-usual outbreaks of water weevil in paddy early in the season, but they were satisfactorily controlled either by the use of deltamethrin or by draining the fields. Armyworm was reported on maize and wheat in North Hwanghae before the heavy rains, but the outbreaks were controlled. Rice stemborers were reported in South Pyongan, but infestation levels were below normal. The mission observed open smut in the standing crop of paddy in many parts of the country, but the incidence was always low. Low levels of general fungal disease on maize leaves were reported, but were said to have had no significant effect on yield.
The potato crop had all been harvested by the time the mission visited the country. Despite the contention that the crop was relatively disease-free, the mission considers that the very low yields obtained may suggest otherwise. The highest average yield (in Ryanggang) is less than 14 t/ha fresh weight. Two practices are conducive to infection; very small chits are used as planting material and these are usually untreated; and the crop is routinely planted on the same piece of land every two years despite the recommendation to observe a four-year rotation. These issues deserve further investigation.
Farm power
The availability of tractors and haulage vehicles has remained virtually static over the last twelve months. Last year, the country had 64 225 tractors, of which 57 percent (36 608) were operational. This year the total number has fallen slightly to 64 062, of which 57.5 percent (36 836) are operational. However, since most functioning tractors are old and run inefficiently, about half of the land in the Cereal Bowl is still prepared using draught cattle and human labour. This has a very significant impact on double cropping which requires a rapid turn-around between the harvest of the main crop and the planting of winter wheat. So great is this constraint that the country appears to have reached a double-cropping limit beyond which it cannot go under the prevailing mechanisation conditions. Major problems associated with maintaining tractors operational include a lack of spare parts and tyres and a shortage of fuel. Recent studies carried out by an NGO suggest that those tractors that are operational spend only about half of their working hours carrying out tillage or other land operations; the other half is spent in haulage.
Electricity supplies have again improved this year. Main-season crop production has, however, been helped by the heavy rains of July and August which minimised farms’ pumping requirements, and by the expanding network of gravity-fed irrigation canals. All farms are satisfied that the provision of electricity for threshing the rice crop will be adequate.
Irrigation
The proportion of gravity-fed irrigation systems continues to increase gradually as a result of the new waterways completed in recent years. These include the 148-km Pyong Nam and the 154-km Lake Taesong-Kaechun waterways in North and South Pyongan. The Pakma-Cholsam waterway, also in North Pyongan, is due to be completed soon. However, most systems still depend on electrically powered pumping stations. Some farms depend for their irrigation on series of ten or more pumping-stations and are consequently very vulnerable to water shortages. This year, the power supply was better than it had been for several years, and the irrigation situation was satisfactory. In addition, heavy rainfall in July and early August reduced farms’ irrigation requirements. Water levels in the country’s reservoirs have been very satisfactory; by September 2004, levels were at 79 percent of capacity, which is significantly higher than they have been in recent years (see Figure A1 in the Appendix).
Production parameters of food crops produced on farms in DPR Korea for 2004/05 are presented in Tables 2 and 3. Estimates for the main season crops (rice, maize, potato, and other cereals including summer wheat, sorghum and millet) in 2004, shown in Table 2, are based on a combination of Government estimates, on-farm discussions, field observation, and discussions with other agencies involved in crop production. Winter and spring crop forecasts for 2004/05 (to be harvested in 2005) (Table 3) are based on a combination of Government target crop areas, on-farm discussions and recent reported yields. Table 4 gives the sum of area and production of main crops, and winter and spring crops, by province. The global total in this table includes the Mission’s estimates of household garden production and production from hillside plots (see above). Table 5 compares area, yield and production of cereals and potatoes (in cereal-equivalents) for 2004/05 with those of 2003/04.
| Province 1/ | Paddy | Maize | Potato 2/ | Other cereals | Total | ||||||||||
| Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Prod. 3/ | Prod. 4/ | |
| Pyongyang | 27 | 4.0 | 106 | 14 | 3.9 | 55 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1 | 42 | 165 | 127 |
| South Pyongan | 114 | 4.2 | 478 | 68 | 3.9 | 266 | 9 | 2.6 | 24 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 193 | 772 | 604 |
| North Pyongan | 103 | 4.1 | 423 | 87 | 3.9 | 339 | 11 | 2.7 | 30 | 5 | 1.6 | 8 | 206 | 800 | 652 |
| Jagang | 7 | 3.6 | 25 | 37 | 3.4 | 123 | 2 | 2.9 | 4 | 5 | 1.9 | 10 | 51 | 163 | 154 |
| South Hwanghae | 150 | 4.5 | 677 | 80 | 4.2 | 336 | 16 | 2.9 | 45 | 5 | 2.4 | 13 | 251 | 1 071 | 834 |
| North Hwanghae | 54 | 3.9 | 212 | 72 | 3.3 | 238 | 6 | 2.6 | 15 | 3 | 2.4 | 8 | 136 | 474 | 400 |
| Kangwon | 36 | 3.4 | 122 | 37 | 2.7 | 99 | 3 | 2.3 | 6 | 3 | 1.4 | 4 | 78 | 231 | 188 |
| South Hamgyong | 60 | 3.6 | 216 | 48 | 2.8 | 134 | 7 | 2.7 | 20 | 9 | 2.0 | 18 | 125 | 389 | 313 |
| North Hamgyong | 25 | 3.4 | 85 | 47 | 2.6 | 122 | 12 | 2.8 | 33 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 7 | 87 | 247 | 217 |
| Ryanggang | 2 | 2.7 | 5 | 3 | 2.3 | 8 | 23 | 3.4 | 77 | 22 | 2.1 | 46 | 50 | 136 | 134 |
| Kaesong | 5 | 3.9 | 21 | 2 | 3.4 | 6 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 21 |
| Total | 583 | 4.1 | 2 370 | 495 | 3.5 | 1 727 | 89 | 2.9 | 258 | 60 | 2.0 | 119 | 1 227 | 4 475 | 3 645 |
| Province | Winter wheat | Spring barley | Spring potato 1/ | Total | |||||||
| Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Prod. | |
| Pyongyang | 3 | 2.5 | 8 | 1 | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| South Pyongan | 14 | 2.5 | 35 | 7 | 2.1 | 14 | 20 | 2.7 | 54 | 41 | 103 |
| North Pyongan | 13 | 2.4 | 32 | 9 | 2.1 | 19 | 18 | 2.6 | 47 | 40 | 98 |
| Jagang | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| South Hwanghae | 19 | 2.5 | 48 | 8 | 2.1 | 17 | 20 | 2.8 | 55 | 47 | 119 |
| North Hwanghae | 9 | 2.2 | 20 | 4 | 1.9 | 7 | 11 | 2.4 | 26 | 24 | 53 |
| Kangwon | 5 | 2.1 | 10 | 1 | 1.8 | 2 | 7 | 2.3 | 16 | 13 | 28 |
| South Hamgyong | 5 | 2.0 | 10 | 2 | 1.7 | 3 | 14 | 2.4 | 34 | 21 | 46 |
| North Hamgyong | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 3 | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| Kaesong | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1 | 5 | 2.3 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| Total | 70 | 2.4 | 166 | 32 | 2.0 | 64 | 100 | 2.6 | 255 | 201 | 485 |
| Province 1/ | Total production | ||
|
Total area (including double cropping) |
Including paddy |
Including milled rice2/ |
|
| Pyongyang | 47 | 177 | 140 |
| South Pyongan | 234 | 874 | 707 |
| North Pyongan | 247 | 897 | 749 |
| Jagang | 52 | 167 | 158 |
| South Hwanghae | 298 | 1 190 | 953 |
| North Hwanghae | 159 | 527 | 452 |
| Kangwon | 91 | 259 | 216 |
| South Hamgyong | 145 | 435 | 360 |
| North Hamgyong | 91 | 255 | 225 |
| Ryanggang | 50 | 136 | 134 |
| Kaesong | 14 | 42 | 35 |
| Farm total | 1 428 | 4 959 | 4 130 |
| National household garden production3/ | 25 | 50 | 50 |
| National sloping-land production4/ | 75 | 55 | 55 |
| National total | 1 528 | 5 064 | 4 235 |
| % change, | |||||||||
| 2004/05 | 2003/04 |
2004/05 over 2003/04 |
|||||||
| Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | Area | Yield | Prod. | |
| Main season crops | |||||||||
| Paddy 1/ | 583 | 4.06 | 2 370 | 584 | 3.84 | 2 244 | -0.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Maize | 495 | 3.49 | 1 727 | 495 | 3.48 | 1 725 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other cereals | 60 | 1.99 | 119 | 60 | 2.20 | 129 | 0.0 | -9.5 | -7.4 |
| Potatoes 2/ | 89 | 2.90 | 258 | 89 | 3.20 | 285 | 0.0 | -9.3 | -9.4 |
| Total, main-season crops | 1 227 | 3.65 | 4 475 | 1 228 | 3.54 | 4 384 | -0.08 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Winter/spring crops | |||||||||
| Wheat | 70 | 2.37 | 166 | 69 | 2.13 | 146 | 2.2 | 11.2 | 13.6 |
| Barley | 32 | 2.04 | |||||||