5. The following presentations were made during this session:
a) Ahmed Mahfuzuddin of WorldFish Center: "Outlook for fish to 2020 - Supply and demand in changing global markets";
b) John Kilpatrick of Nutreco: "How do importing companies react to the changing status of resources";
c) Roland Wiefels of INFOPESCA: "Consumer requirements for supply from sustainable resources";
d) James Anderson of University of Rhode Island: "Impact of aquaculture on resource sustainability and trade";
Ahmed Mahfuzuddin: "Outlook for fish to 2020 - Supply and demand in changing global markets"
6. In keeping with the trends in the last two decades, developing countries will not only continue to lead in fish production, their share in trade too will continue to expand, as both among developing countries and between developed and developing countries trade will grow in response to escalating demand for fish in developing countries due to population increase, urbanization and income growth, and continued dependence of the developed countries on food fish imports. In the coming years aquaculture is likely to be the greatest source of increased fish production, and its share in total food fish supply can be almost equal to the food fish supply from capture fisheries. People in the developing world will increase their consumption of both high - and low-value food fish, whereas consumption will remain static in the developed countries. The turnaround that occurred in the international fish trade in the past decade, that created a significant net export for developing countries, will continue to work in favour of the developing countries with export markets expanding further due to growing trade among developing countries. Although China, India, and Latin America are all projected to be net exporters in 2020, only in Latin America are net exports forecast to represent a significant share of domestic production through 2020. In other developing regions, demand is likely to outstrip supply signifying a further stronger role for international fish trade, particularly the trade among developing countries.
7. While developing countries will benefit from emerging trade among developing countries, those that can address new hygiene and food safety requirements, fair labour practices, and environmental needs will have the opportunity to capture more lucrative export markets by pursuing better quality management at lower cost. But, if the poor are to benefit from this potentially profitable activity, policy makers will need to find ways of including smaller-scale producers, processors and fish workers in these arrangements. On the other hand, developing countries need to reduce tariffs and remove import restrictions to facilitate trade among developing countries. The continued high demand situation will cause increase in the overall fish prices in real terms whereas the price of substitutes such as meats, egg and milk will continue to decline. Although the rise in price for high-value finfish and crustaceans, often directed for export, and fish meal and fish oil, used for high-value aquaculture and livestock industry, will be in the higher order, the poor consumers may also feel the pinch of higher prices.
John Kilpatrick: "How do importing companies react to the changing status of resources"
8. Aquacultured fishery products have or should have the advantage of consistent supply and quality. Wild capture fisheries are vulnerable on both counts. Aquaculture in developed countries focused on high quality, high value products for markets in those countries. Aquaculture in developing countries can supply high value products for export to developed countries, or can supply low cost products. For exports from developing countries and for domestic consumption, FAO, through the FISH INFONetwork, can provide invaluable support through education programmes, support for product development, and regulatory compliance guidance.
9. Regrettably, many capture fishery interests see aquaculture as a threat, and with other activist groups, have attacked aquaculture, often with vitriolic and incorrect propaganda. The tide of aquaculture cannot be stemmed through such tactics. More progressive capture fisheries interests have adopted some aquaculture practices and have focused on improving quality and finding seasonal (or frozen) niche markets for their products.
Roland Wiefels: "Consumer requirements for supply from sustainable resources"
10. It was recalled that the world average yearly per capita consumption has been increasing continuously for the last half-century as well as the world production (on a yearly average rate of 3.8 percent) up to the current 16 kg. Ten main reasons were presented to explain this evolution. An important part of this increase was due to China, and the speaker expressed his view that China should not be considered as an exception but rather as a development which will continue in other countries. The world average consumption however hides much differentiated consumption standards, which are still much differentiated according to countries. Many populous countries like India or Brazil, for instance, still have low average seafood consumption levels and present good opportunities for developing their domestic markets for these products. The constraints of domestic seafood marketing represent a bottleneck for domestic consumption and hence also for seafood imports in those countries. Increased seafood consumption and seafood trade among developing countries will benefit from improvements of domestic marketing systems.
11. A hypothetical target of attaining on a global basis a yearly per capita seafood consumption of 30 kg until 2020 would require doubling the 2000 seafood production. This could only be attained by keeping the average world aquaculture growth rate (10 percent per year during the decade 1990-2000) for 17 more years. Anticipating such demand, new countries should therefore be in a position to follow the Chinese path and strongly develop their aquaculture. This possibility however needs political will and economical means to do so in countries with high aquaculture potential (particularly in Latin America).
James Anderson: "Impact of aquaculture on resource sustainability and trade"
12. There are only two fundamental sources for increasing seafood supply: 1) better management and utilization of wild fish stocks and 2) aquaculture. However, nearly all growth in global fish harvest will come from aquaculture in the future, as much of the growth in international seafood trade during past decades has come from aquaculture production and this should continue in the future. For example, in the US per capita consumption of seafood is rapidly increasing for salmon, tilapia, shrimp and mussels that come from farmed imports. Domestically farm-raised catfish is also increasing. In contrast, per capita consumption of many wild fish such as cod and flatfish is declining.
13. The potential for growth and improved efficiency in the aquaculture sector has a long way to go. Aquaculture will benefit from: biotechnology, better disease management, improved nutrition and feed development, consolidation and better organization, and improved farm management. There is relatively little opportunity for growth in most wild fisheries. Aquaculture will have an increasing role in the global fisheries economy. Technological change will continue to make aquaculture more competitive; this improved risk/return ratio will attract new investment and growth. As aquaculture becomes more dominant in international trade the following is likely to occur: international trade will increase, marketing/distribution systems will improve, resources will be used more efficiently, there will be more value-added seafood and there will be increased promotion of consumption.
a) Strengthen support to FISH INFONetwork for the benefit of the fish industry, especially with regard to market information collection and dissemination and with regard to quality and safety of fish products. The network should intensify exchange of experience regarding entrepreneurial achievements and innovations in the sustainable use of fishery resources and consumption promotion.
b) Develop science based criteria for issues affecting international fish trade such as eco- labelling, safety and quality and traceability to satisfy the need for enhancing transparency. FAO objective advice to all operators concerned (consumers, producers, governments, traders and civil society representatives) was considered very valuable in this regard.
c) Study the impact of aquaculture on international fish trade and develop technical guidelines for responsible aquaculture and Good Aquaculture Practices (GAP) and provide assistance for their implementation.
d) Make available information on all relevant elements of import regulations for fish and fishery products and undertake a detailed analysis of the impact of global fish trade liberalization and barriers to trade in fishery products (among developing countries and also focussing on domestic markets).
e) Evaluate and facilitate improving infrastructure, especially post-harvest distribution, quality control, price development and international marketing systems.
f) Monitor international developments related to Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) aspects of fish products, including fish feed.
