SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to MOZAMBIQUE

20 June 2005

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. ECONOMY AND AGRICULTURE
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2004/05
• 4. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
• 5. EMERGENCY FOOD NEEDS
• ANNEX

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

Following the reports of poor harvests in southern and central provinces due to drought, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited all the production areas in the country from 25 April to 13 May 2005. The Mission evaluated food crop production in the 2004/05 agricultural season, assessed the overall food supply situation, forecast cereal import requirements and possible exports in marketing year 2005/06 (April/March) and determined the eventual food aid needs.

As on previous occasions, the Mission received support from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER), which provided preliminary production forecasts for this year’s agricultural season and technical staff to accompany the Mission on its field visits. Staff from National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) and Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MIC), and observers from the European Union (EU), World Vision, SARNET (IITA), and the Italian NGO - CESVI, joined the Mission.

Prior to departure to the field the Mission was briefed by representatives of FAO and WFP and by government officials, who provided information on the current situation in the country. A meeting with donors and NGOs also provided valuable information, particularly on the situation in the districts where they work.

The Mission, divided into seven groups, travelled for about 10 days to all ten provinces covering 45 selected districts in the north, centre and the south. The districts to be visited were carefully selected using a range of criteria including agro-ecological, marketing and vulnerability considerations. In each province and district, the teams met with administrative authorities and with representatives of Agriculture, Health and Commerce Ministries, INGC, as well as NGOs working in the various areas. After these meetings, the sub-teams travelled to selected production areas to conduct interviews with farmers, carry out field inspections and make crop cuttings to estimate yields. The Mission also visited markets and interviewed a wide range of traders.

The preliminary assessment of the season provided by the Early Warning Unit of MADER, and pre-harvest data on area and yield for food crops gathered at MADER provincial and district levels, were analysed by the Mission and cross-checked against qualitative information from farmers, traders, NGOs and international agencies working in the agricultural sector. Information on growing conditions, pest and disease status, rainfall, prices and input supply obtained during the field visits were triangulated with remote sensing data and intelligence reports prepared by FAO. The work of the Mission was complemented with concurrently ongoing survey work of the Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) aimed to determine food relief needs for the 2005/06 marketing year. The CFSAM and the VAC teams worked together to analyze data prior to and after the CFSAM field work in order to ensure the concordance of the two assessments.

National cereal production (maize, sorghum, millet and paddy rice) in 2005 estimated at 1.92 million tonnes, 3 percent below last year’s level, is made up of 72 percent maize at an estimated 1.40 million tonnes. While production has increased in the northern provinces by 12 percent, much lower cereal output in the southern provinces and in the drier districts of the central provinces has reduced the overall national harvest this year. The paddy crop is estimated to be 2 percent less than last year from a slightly increased area at 174 000 tonnes. Sorghum/millet output fell by 13 percent to 343 000 tonnes due to falling area estimates in the central and southern provinces.

Last year’s exceptional maize harvest in the southern provinces was not repeated this year as the continuous rains from January to April in 2004 that prompted widespread maize planting were not repeated. However, in the north, although the rains were not as well distributed as in 2004, they were heavier and more than adequate to support slightly improved maize production from a slightly increased area. In the central region, where cereal production varied from above to below last year according to location and crop, an earlier start to the rains finished early after a season characterised by heavy rains and dry spells.

The production forecast for cassava is 11.5 million tonnes (fresh weight), substantially higher than in last year’s assessment because of the Mission’s application of revised yield estimates, more compatible with recent technical study results¹ and with neighbouring countries. During the past year an independent review of cassava production confirmed the 2004 CFSAM proposition that yields per hectare were much more in line with those in neighbouring countries than had been previously indicated. Consequently, cassava production estimates have been revisited and quantities theoretically available for use have been doubled. However, given the uncertainty of areas and yields, the mission recommends a comprehensive study of cassava availability and utilization, and promotion of marketing opportunities including local purchases in the form of dried cassava and cassava flour for food aid.

At the same time, industrial crops, mainly tobacco, cotton, cashew, coconuts, tea, paprika, soybeans, sesame, sunflower and citrus are undergoing an expansion that is contributing substantially to peasant household food security and boosting agricultural exports.

Given the universally low stocking rates, plenty of grazing and browse is available in the tse-tse free pastoral areas. Ruminants, are in good condition with no disease outbreaks noted, however, terms of trade are noted to be unfavourable to herders in the remote areas of Inhambane and Gaza where the maize harvests have been very poor and cattle prices are falling as more cattle are being sold to fewer buyers.

The marked regional differences in maize production and consumption, coupled with high cost of moving the crop from the surplus northern and central provinces to the deficit south, are reflected in the high price differentials among regions. At the time of the Mission, the price of maize in the southern Maputo market was twice as much as in the central provinces of Manica and Tete.

Maize prices were declining seasonably in central and northern regions since March 2005 owing to this year’s satisfactory harvests there. However, in the South and other drought affected market areas of the centre, prices are rising as a result of poor harvest this year. Stronger demand from bordering southern provinces of Malawi, where harvests have been reduced, is expected to improve maize prices in the northern provinces of Mozambique. Already the Mission observed substantial flows of informal exports of maize into Malawi. Total informal maize exports between July 2004 to April 2005 from Mozambique to Malawi, monitored under the FEWS-NET/WFP study, were about 80 000 tonnes, and an additional 40 000 tonnes were exported through formal channels. Formal and informal exports of maize, mainly to Malawi but also to bordering areas of Zambia, and formal exports to other maize deficit countries in the region, are forecast at 190 000 tonnes in 2005/06.

As the country has a structural deficit in rice and wheat, imports of these commodities required to meet the commercial market demand are estimated at 336 000 and 352 000 tonnes, respectively, including small amounts to be received in the form of monetized food aid. Import requirements of maize for southern deficit provinces, owing to the high costs of moving the crop from the north to the south and the proximity of the southern provinces to the competitive South African market, are forecast at 175 000 tonnes. Of these about 130 000 tonnes are expected to be through commercial channels, leaving a deficit of about 45 000 tonnes to be imported with international assistance. In aggregate, total cereal import requirements in 2005/06 (April/March) including maize, rice and wheat, forecast at 863 000 tonnes, are 10 percent higher than the previous year as a result of the reduced production in the South and central provinces and increased utilization.

Food deficits are estimated in the semi-arid areas of the interior of Gaza and Inhambane provinces, semi-arid areas of Manica and Tete provinces, as well as remotely located areas across the southern (including Maputo) and central provinces. Lack of access to adequate food is a major concern, especially for communities and families who have not yet recovered from several years of poor crop production and have fully exhausted their assets and are now engaged in negative coping strategies for their survival. Approximately 587 500 people are most vulnerable and will require some 70 000 tonnes of emergency food assistance to meet the basic dietary intake between July 2005 and March 2006. This is in addition to the ongoing development programs and PRRO requiring 44 000 tonnes during the 2005/06 marketing year. Where it is possible food assistance procured locally or regionally should be used in order to avoid distortion in local markets and to encourage local production. Livelihood recovery for the next year will require immediate actions to ensure necessary seeds and other agricultural inputs for households that do not have the means to purchase them.

The negative impact of HIV/AIDS has led to “compounded vulnerability” in affected households. Although Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates have remained relatively low over the last year, there is a tendency towards deterioration in underweight in children under 5 years old from the mid-1990s onwards. Chronic malnutrition rates are estimated at 36 percent and are particularly high in the northern provinces. An integrated UN response should thus be developed to address the current food insecurity situation.

2. ECONOMY AND AGRICULTURE

2.1 Economy²

With a total area of 786 300 km² and a population officially projected at 19.42 million at mid-2005, Mozambique has a relatively low population density. It is richly endowed with natural resources, including arable land, forest, grasslands, inland water resources from its network of rivers including the mighty Zambezi, marine fisheries, minerals and hydroelectricity. As a result, the economy is diversified, and agriculture, transport, manufacturing, energy, fisheries, tourism and wage remittances all make important contributions to the economy. Following the rapid growth of the industrial sector in the past few years, the share of agriculture in national gross domestic product (GDP) has been falling, down from over 27 percent in 1998 to below 20 percent in 2004. The sector, however, still employs around 80 percent of the total labour force and provides major export earnings from commodities such as prawns and fish, cotton, sugar, timber and cashew nuts, although these exports have lagged behind aluminium and electricity in recent years.

Market liberalization policies have been implemented since 1992 in cooperation with the IMF and the World Bank. Under a poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF), renewed at the end of 2003, Mozambique continues to benefit from debt relief and renewed loans. At the same time, foreign grants continue to cover about one-half of public expenditures. The economic reforms have been remarkably successful in terms of the important macroeconomic achievements (see Table 1 for key economic indicators). Sustained by strong foreign investment, real GDP has been growing at rates in excess of 7 percent for last 4 consecutive years following the severe economic setback caused by devastating floods in 2000. Per capita income in US dollars has increased by nearly 50 percent between 2001 and 2004. Inflation, which fell to 15 percent in 1997 from over 50 percent the previous year, averaged about 13 percent in 2004 and reached little over 11 percent in March 2005. Exports of goods have increased by 3.5 times between 2000 and 2004, resulting in dramatic decline in merchandise trade deficit, while the exchange rate against the US dollar has remained relatively stable after the devaluation in 2000. Export earnings in 2005/06 are expected to be favourable in keeping with the recent trend and with estimated rise in production of cotton, cashew and coconut. Although the future of sugar exports to Europe is uncertain as the current agreement that allows Mozambique and other sugar producers of the ACP (African, Caribbean and Pacific) group to sell sugar on the EU market at a fixed, preferential price, and under a quota system, is under review. This may slash the fixed price by over one-third affecting the value of sugar exports drastically.

Despite all these gains, the impact on employment and incomes has been limited, as economic growth has mainly stemmed from a few large capital-intensive projects, with the support of huge inflows of foreign investment. This includes the Mozal Aluminium Smelter in Maputo, whose production is oriented mainly to the European market; the natural gas pipeline from the coastal port of Beira to South Africa; the rehabilitation of the power lines from the Cahora Bassa hydroelectric dam to South Africa and Zimbabwe; and several projects funded by donors for road construction and other activities.

Table 1: Mozambique - Key economic indicators, 2000–2004¹

p = projected.

a. = As of first week of May 2005, the exchange rate was 22 500 Meticais/US$.

b. = trade in goods, fob.

1. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; and Government and International Agency staff estimates.

According to the 2004 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Mozambique ranks 171^st out of 177 countries on the human development index, falling below Ethiopia and only ahead of Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Sierra Leone. Although poverty remains high by all standards, some progress in poverty reduction has been achieved in recent years as a result of sustained economic growth coupled with the Government’s road construction and rehabilitation programme and investment in social sectors. A recent official study on poverty incidence suggests that the percentage of total population falling below the absolute poverty line has decreased by 15 percent, from 69 percent in 1997 to 54 percent in 2003. Results of the study also show that poverty is higher in the southern provinces, where rates have actually increased somewhat. As part of the Government’s poverty reduction strategy for the period 2001–2005 (Plano de Accao para a reducào da pobreza absoluta, PARPA), promotion and development is planned in six priority areas with a key impact on poverty: education, health, agriculture and rural development, basic infrastructure, good governance and macro-economic and financial management.

2.2 Agriculture

Forty-five percent of Mozambique’s total land area is suitable for agriculture, but only 11 percent, around 4 million hectares, is estimated to be cultivated. Farming is conducted by some 3.04 million peasant families, a small number of commercial farmers cultivating a total of less than 60 000 hectares and refurbished agro-industrial units growing 30 000 hectares of sugar-cane. Consequently, agriculture provides food security and is an important source of income for 75 percent of the 20 million inhabitants. Mozambique’s diverse soils and climatic conditions, influenced by latitude, variations in altitude, topography and proximity to the coast, offer a wide range of production opportunities. However, as agricultural systems are predominantly rainfed, the temporal and spatial distributions of rainfall are critical to crop performance, resulting in wide-ranging fluctuations in annual crop harvests from year to year.

The main production season extends from September to March in most parts of the country, with a short second season in the south from April to August. The farming system is characterized by aggregations of near-subsistence farm-families holding an average 1.2 hectares each, who practise a manually cultivated bush fallow system, the intensity of which varies with the population pressure.

Tree crops, grown within the peasant farming systems, provide the country with an important source of foreign exchange earnings each year and provide the growers with a valuable contribution to their household food security. Table 2 shows the estimated number of peasant farmers in all provinces with a coastline growing coconuts and cashews. The numbers are particularly significant in the heavily populated littorals of Inhambane and Gaza, where the contribution to the household food economy of such crops is substantial as individual farm families own 100 to 200 trees. The official annual harvest of coconuts and cashews is noted to be usually around 240 000 and 50 000 tonnes respectively.

Table 2: Estimated percentage of farmers with the main tree crops, coconuts and cashews

Other major cash crops grown within the peasant systems include tobacco, of which the production has expanded from 3 500 tonnes (1997) to 50 000 tonnes (2004); and cotton with harvests fluctuating from 74 000 tonnes (1997) and 35 000 tonnes (1999) to 93 000 tonnes (2004). These cash crops, along with oilseeds, tea, citrus and horticultural crops, particularly tomatoes, offer alternative sources of revenue to the small farmers in the interior districts, where coconuts and cashews are not grown.

On a different scale, 30 000 hectares of industrial plantations of sugar cane are grown at four operational sites surrounding sugar mills in Maputo (2) and Sofala (2) provinces. Sugar cane production has risen from 386 000 tonnes (1998) to 2.22 million tonnes (2004) due to improved organisation and production practices.

Maize and cassava are the major staples; other food crops of significance include sorghum, beans, groundnuts, millet and rice. Cassava is grown mainly in the north and southeast where it is the main staple, and is being introduced, along with sweet potatoes under a government initiative, in drought-prone areas throughout the country. Communities in the interior whose food security was regularly threatened by insufficient or untimely rains are already appreciating the effect of this introduction. The area under sweet potatoes is increasing but the crop does not yet appear in the MADER statistics and so is not incorporated into the Missions analysis. Data collected by the Mission this year suggests that the area is probably in the order of 12 000 ha in the south, 7 000 ha in the centre and 4 000 ha in the north. Yields are estimated locally at 3 tonnes per ha but are likely to be much higher; however the Mission has not conducted any spot checks on the crop.

The use of purchased agricultural inputs, (improved seeds, fertilizers and pesticides) is limited to a small number of modern farm enterprises growing cash crops and vegetables and out growers of tobacco and cotton, producing crops on contract. The yields of cereals in the peasant sector are generally low, and losses in the field and stores are high.

Livestock numbers are low, as herds have yet to recover from the losses incurred during the civil war and, in southern provinces, from the floods of 2000. The livestock census in 2002 identified the presence of 720 000 cattle, 5 million goats, 25 million chickens and 2.3 million pigs. Cattle, goats, sheep are reared in extensive grass-based systems and at such low stocking rates that body condition is generally excellent and numbers are estimated to be increasing at around 8 percent per annum suggesting 907 000 current national head of cattle and 6.3 million goats . Pigs and poultry are kept mainly under back-yard, scavenger systems and the numbers, unlike the pastoral livestock, are expected by the Mission to be approximately the same as at the time of the census, as the husbandry system limits expansion of holdings. There is, however, a small modern poultry industry, augmenting backyard production and servicing some of the demand for broilers in the main towns although their survival is presently under challenge by an upsurge in cheap imports sold at prices apparently below local production costs.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2004/05

The Early Warning System Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER) estimates the area planted to crops using a model developed in the 1990s with the support of FAO. In this model, area planted to food crops is estimated by multiplying the number of farming households in each district by the average area cultivated, apportioned to the prevailing crops according to the historical planting patterns. The model projects the number of families from the 1997 census and uses updated farm size and cropping pattern data from annual surveys at planting time conducted by the district agricultural offices with assistance from the provincial agricultural specialists to adjust the calculated figures.

Yields, originally estimated from a water-balance model in the early 1990s, are adjusted yearly by data from crop-cutting surveys undertaken at district level at harvest time. At the time of the Mission, the district surveys had been completed, collation and data cleaning had been completed at provincial level and the final analyses were under review at a national meeting of Senior Provincial Agricultural Officers in Maputo. The finalised preliminary estimates were given to the Mission at departure.

The Mission’s own spot-check crop-cuts and field scoring techniques that are used during transects driven throughout the field trips plus in-depth farmer interviews conducted in the different agro-ecological zones in each district visited by the Mission teams, prove useful additions to understanding the sequence and timing of crops grown this year and their subsequent performance. With the exception of cassava the yields of which have been increased following last year’s Mission recommendations and an independent survey of tuber production, only slight adjustments to yields have been made to the maize yields provided by MADER. However, given the absence, at district level, of simple assessing tools such as balances, quadrats, tape measures and instructional guidelines on rational sampling and analysis, the Mission feels that it is time to review, in each district, the perceptions of field staff regarding: (i) current cropping patterns, (ii) yields per hectare of maize, sorghum and bulrush (pearl) millet and rice; (iii) to determine the district level technical assistants’ understanding of the size of a hectare (as many farmers interviewed by the Mission team visiting Niassa and Nampula, called 50m x 50m plots “half hectare”), and (iv) to see precisely how they are arriving at their figures for crop performance. Even if regularly applied, the standard 7m x 7m plot may not be the correct sampling tool to use when there are wide differences in planting density in the same field, as it causes the assessors to ignore the productive patches to the detriment of the estimate. By the same token, the 67 percent conversion factor (TIA 2002) for determining the weight of grain maize from the weight of a dry cob is too low, and should be changed to 80 percent, or better yet the grain weight taken directly. Furthermore, all attempts to estimate annual production of cereals need to include the proportions eaten before harvest. This is particularly true for maize, which may be harvested green for weeks prior to the final harvest period. Ignoring such production on the basis that it is already eaten increases the inaccuracy of the assessment, the position of such cereals in the cereal balance is justified by assuming that a similar amount of maize will be produced again and consumed again next year.

Regarding cassava production, last year the Mission expressed serious reservations regarding the production estimates used by MADER, included a note on how estimates of annual production might be improved to bring the reported performance in line with neighbouring countries and recommended that a yield survey be conducted before this year’s assessment. During the past year an independent survey by the cassava specialists in IITA/SARNET was undertaken in 27 districts and its findings, confirming the Mission’s concerns, report yields of 10.6 tonnes per ha in the south, 12 tonnes per ha in the centre and 14 tonnes per ha in the north. This year’s cassava yield estimates have, therefore, been adjusted using this data and Mission case studies as guide yields for each cassava-growing province in the three regions. These yields are more in line with cassava yields in neighbouring Malawi.

3.1 Factors affecting production

For most of the 3.04 million farm families, agricultural production is based on a rainfed, shifting, low input system. Ninety-six percent of field crops come from family farms of 1 to 3 hectares that are mostly hand-cultivated with animal traction making an important contribution in the south and south-central areas. The remaining field crops come from the entrepreneurial sector encompassing both individuals and formal associations of peasants working together.

Given a universal absence of pressure on land, the quality of the rainfall distribution, access to labour or traction and access to hand tools and seeds determine the area planted. Given an absence of inputs in the food crop sub-sector, yield per unit area of cereals, pulses, roots and tubers is determined by the distribution and quantity of rainfall, soil fertility, timing of sowing and planting, quality and sowing rates of seeds and cuttings, cultivation and weeding practices, pest and disease challenges and their control and the general enthusiasm with which the husbandry practices are undertaken. No formal credit institutions exist in the rural areas, therefore, the only farmers using credit are the limited but increasing numbers of farm families working with industrial agricultural companies on fixed price contracts that provide credit-in-kind for growing cotton, tobacco and oilseeds.

Rainfall

The main growing season usually starts with the first rains beginning in September in the south and in December in the north. There is also a minor growing season that extends from March to July, based on residual ground moisture in the low lying areas (baixos) across the country that accounts for approximately 10 percent of total output. In the past few years, the rainfall pattern has been irregular and unpredictable both within and between provinces.

This year, in all the southern provinces a false start at the beginning of September was followed by two different rainfall patterns. In Gaza and Inhambane, rainfall over the 2004/05 season is noted to range from around 350 mm in the drier districts to 600+mm in the wetter areas. The rains restarted in October, dropped away in November returned in December as a series of heavy downpours that continued into January and terminated in February. Last year’s good early season in October and November, followed by sustained rain throughout January, February and March that encouraged so much second sowing season maize to be planted and sustained vegetative growth to maturity, was not repeated this year. However, in early April the late rains began and were continuing during the Mission’s visits in May, prompting widespread opportunistic planting of maize and beans in the south-central and coastal districts of Gaza and the coastal districts of Inhambane. In Maputo, the early rains were promising and better than last year, only to be followed by dry spells in December. Erratic rains continued, however, throughout January, February and March boosting the accumulated rainfall above last year’s levels for the latter part of the season in six of the eight districts.

In the three northern provinces, the rains began early and were heavier than last year in all districts in Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula and ended early in March. The quantity that fell in the shorter period of time was up to 20 percent greater than last year, with variations according to locations following a general increase in rain away from the coast at 350-600mm and towards the north where records of more than 1100mm are noted this year. Distribution was, however, less favourable than last year with some inconvenient disruptions to the planting and weeding practices when the downpours were particularly heavy. The less humid conditions provided by the frequent dry periods between the heavy showers, seem to have been less favourable for the regular pests and diseases.

In the central region, the pattern has been a mixed with generally early starts followed by a better first half to the season than last year. In Zambezia, quantity and distribution was far better than last year, matching the long-term mean until January and but was poorer than last year after January, favouring the earlier planted crops. This pattern was repeated in Manica and in parts of Tete where the rainfall was universally better than the long term mean until February, but again similar to last year from March onwards. In Sofala, the rainfall matched the long term mean until the end of January and, in nine out of twelve districts, remained more favourable than last year for plant growth and development over the period from February until April.

Area

The average area planted per household is estimated at 1.2 hectares. Two or more plots are normally planted, including a back-yard field and at least one outfield. Intercropping of field crops and tree crops is widely practised in the large fields around the homestead. The Mission notes significant areas of mixed cropping of annual cereals and pulses, with and without cassava and groundnuts, as well as monoculture maize, sorghum, cassava and groundnuts in the outfields in the different provinces. Cotton and tobacco are grown as monocultures, whereas oilseeds including sunflowers and sesame are usually intercropped with the food crops. Given that, with the exception of the heavily populated districts of the southern provinces, bush fallow-farmland is abundant and that as clearing occurs in an outward progression of concentric circles, at farm site maturity, that is before returns on farm labour encourage shifting to a new area, the 1.2 ha average may well be an underestimate and needs to be verified under today’s conditions of peace and security. The subsistence-plus nature of most farming enterprises suggests areas planted to the main staples are unlikely to vary below a calculated minimum. Cultivating activities are often linked to traditional mutual assistance groups located within the villages and hamlets.

In cereal growing districts in the central and northern regions such annual crops are planted to suit the traditional understanding of the household demand for consumption and sale of maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts and beans. This understanding is reflected in the crop areas given in Table 3, which show estimated harvested areas suggesting a 3 percent increase in effective cropping of food crops in the north reflecting population growth and increases in the number of farming families; a 2 percent reduction in the central region possibly reflecting the growth in cash crops and cassava and a 20 percent reduction of harvested/ harvestable areas in the south.

Table 3: Mozambique - Area harvested in 2004/05 (‘000 ha) and comparison with 2003/04, by region

Note: Calculations computed from unrounded data.

In the southern provinces, where cereals are often a secondary enterprises to tree crops, cassava, or livestock rearing, cereal growing is much more speculative as is confirmed by the remarkable fluctuation in production from the region over the past four years, ranging from 105 000 tonnes (2001) to 342 000 tonnes (2004). This year, the poor early rains in Gaza and Inhambane, which were not followed by the good rains experienced last year, are considered by the Mission to have had a reducing effect on maize area planted and harvested. In May 2004, the fields in both provinces were full of maize at a multitude of stages ranging from senile to just germinating with by far the greatest proportion either tasseling or about to tassel. This year, these second sowing-season fields noted by the Mission team visiting Gaza and Inhambane in May, had only just been planted, therefore, there is no guarantee that all planted fields will produce. The consequent delay in the harvest is noted to have extended the hunger gap. In areas without cassava, like Funhalorou and Chigubu, this has increased the reliance of peasants on other livelihoods in the area and the use of wild foods. In Gaza, the Mission anticipates a 45 percent reduction in overall maize area for harvest from both sowing seasons compared to last year’s very extensive cropping. In Inhambane, using MADER figures, a 3 percent reduction in maize area is noted with 30 percent and 54 percent reductions in sorghum and millet areas. Maputo, by contrast, shows a greater maize planted and harvested area at first sowing, as the early rainfall was much more conducive to sowing maize than last year.

Elsewhere throughout the country, regarding maize planting, the rains provided sufficient encouragement for regular sowing patterns to be observed.

Except in the case of the poorest farmers, cereal seed availability was not noted to have been a limiting factor in districts where the main staple is either maize or sorghum. The same local seeds are used for planting and eating and sowing rates are low at 12–25 kg per ha. When the main cereal seeds are genuinely in short supply, lower seed rates are adopted; however, the usual approach is to borrow or work for seed from neighbours. Seed fairs organized during 2003/04, with the assistance of FAO and a wide range of agencies, provided diverse seeds to a limited number of families offering alternative planting material at no cost. In the marginal, semi-arid areas such as Funhalrou, where maize is a questionable crop in all but the best years, provision of maize seeds for sowing seems only to be perpetuating probable disappointment and the growing of alternative crops, as well as cassava and sweet potatoes, need to be investigated.

In the northern provinces stability of sorghum area is reinforced by the fact that a great deal of the plants are ratooned for a second year, consequently, only supplementary sowing is done to replace the second year plants and to fill gaps, usually after the maize has been sown, thereby easing demands on labour.

Given the nature of the Mission, it was not possible to confirm physically the estimated areas reported other than to say that the farm sizes appear to conform to expected patterns and that in all regions the areas were cultivated as usual. Crop proportions noted during major and minor road transects driven by the Mission in the south last year pointing to an increase of cassava in the Inhambane province that were not immediately obvious from the statistics, are reflected in a 5 percent increase in cassava area in the province this year.

Crop Yields

Inputs

In Mozambique, agricultural practices are predominantly traditional. Land is generally slashed with a cutlass, the trash burnt or buried and the area cultivated using the long-handled or short-handled African hoe. In the south, farmers with ox ploughs provide a contracting service to the others who can afford to pay the hire charge, which was similar to last year at 30 000–50 000 meticais (Mt) for 1 000 square metres. The commercial sector, including small-, medium- and large-scale farms and agricultural companies, uses both ox-drawn ploughs and tractors, hiring the latter at around 800 000 Mt per ha. in the south.

As is the normal practice, most farmers planted their crops with local seeds from the previous season’s production either from their own supply or from local informal sources. The potential of such seeds is limited, however, with 100 g of grain per cob commonplace and four filled cobs per square metre frequently noted during the Mission, four-five tonne per hectare crops are regularly produced. In addition, to the peasants such seeds have three advantages: they are readily available locally, their characteristics are well understood, and they are cheap and can produce 3-4 tonnes per ha under the prevailing conditions.

As reported last year, seed companies (including SEMOC, SEEDCO and Pannar) supply some seed to farmers, but adoption rates are low. A few cereal farmers close to the main towns and along the borders with Zimbabwe and Malawi make limited use of improved maize seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. This year, maize seed delivery was delayed to the commercial farmer visited in the central region, causing him to miss the early planting season. Mostly such inputs are used on cash crops, particularly tobacco, through company credit schemes run by JFS, MLT DIMON and STANCOM providing inputs in kind against guaranteed purchases of the product at negotiated prices. Rates of NPK and CAN used by the farmers varied but appeared to be in the order of 50kg-100kg per household for each type, which connects to an overall use of fertiliser on tobacco of around 16 000 tonnes. However, not all growers use fertiliser and not all the fertiliser supplied to growers is used on tobacco, the Mission noted well established vegetable growers in the north whose main sources of inputs are the tobacco farmers.

Pests and diseases

Pests and diseases noted during the Mission to be of most concern this year were cassava brown streak and mosaic viruses, oidium in cashew, cassava mealy bug, leaf miner and legata enroladora affecting groundnuts and aphids affecting beans. Such problems are not unique to this year and various steps have been taken by MADER to deal with them, including the introduction of cassava varieties resistant to the brown streak disease and the introduction of cashew planting material resistant to oidium. In the districts most affected by brown streak, farmers are digging the cassava after 6-7 months to avoid the ravages of the disease. Yields of such cassava crops, noted by the mission this year, were in the order of 6-8 tonnes per ha compared to the much higher yields noted through spot check field sampling in other parts of Nampula and in Niassa. Although other insect pests such as stem-borer and grasshoppers were noted to be ubiquitous, the cases were generally stated to be mild. By contrast, in the northern region and to a lesser extent in the forested areas of the central and southern regions, the most serious pests are wild animals, particularly elephants. Methodologies designed to ameliorate the problem of elephants, while respecting international environmental and wildlife concerns, are presently under consideration/pilot application by MADER. The Mission notes that the current method appears to be to scare them away with a “community shotgun”. Regarding wild pigs and monkeys, a 24 hour guard needs to be placed on the fields to protect the crops at all stages of growth. Such actions, along with bird scaring, place an incredible strain on the household labour throughout the season.

In the main maize producing areas, the use of storage chemicals appears is known, however, local methods which involve leaving the crops in the fields for weeks until completely dried out; stacking the unshelled cobs in above-ground stores that can be fumigated with wood smoke are still used by the vast majority of the farm families. Presently the pests of greatest concern are rats and weevils, with losses in the local maize cribs quoted as high as 40 percent per annum. The spread of the large grain borer (LGB) in major maize growing areas in Sofala noted by the Mission last year to have prompted a sanitation programme designed to eliminate stocks and stores where this pest occurs, was still reported as present in the central region and this year the LGB was noted to be in Gaza.

3.2 Food production in 2004/05

Main crops

Table 4 gives production estimates for the main crops at national, regional and provincial levels for the 2004/05 cropping season based on the May MADER final analyses adjusted by information collected by the Mission from field surveys, crop cuts and on farm case studies. Overall, maize production is slightly (1 percent) lower than last year at 1.403 million tonnes. Despite significant improvements in the estimated performance of maize in the northern provinces, which probably reflects better data collection and analysis, and a similar performance to last year reported in the central provinces, the performance of maize in the three southern provinces throughout both sowing seasons has been much worse than last year resulting in a 46 percent reduction in the estimated regional harvest.

Table 4: Mozambique - Crop production in 2004/05 (‘000 tonnes) and comparison with 2003/04, by region