S P E C I A L   R E P O R T

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION

TO SUDAN

15 February 2006

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
• 3.  AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN 2005/06
• 4. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION
• 5. EMERGENCY FOOD NEEDS ASSESSMENT
• ANNEX
• Acronyms and Abbreviations
• Note

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan from 8 to 27 October 2005 and northern Sudan from 12 November to 6 December 2005 in order to assess the current season’s cereal production, forecast wheat production from areas prepared for planting, and estimate cereal import requirements for the marketing year 2005/06 (November-October). The Mission in both northern and southern Sudan received the full cooperation of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC), Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (SRRC) and South Sudan Centre for Statistic and Evaluation (SSCSE), all assigned senior members of staff to accompany it. The Mission was accompanied by EC observers and benefited from a wide range of discussions with both national and international stakeholders. Discussion on assessment methodologies are given in Annexes 1 and 2.

In northern Sudan, the Mission was joined by two members of staff of the Strategic Reserve Corporation, three EC observers and a member of staff of the JRC. Pre-harvest estimates of area and yield were provided by the State Ministries of Agriculture and the various irrigation schemes. The Mission discussed and cross-checked these estimates during field inspections and interviews with farmers, herders and traders. Discussions were also held with key informants from relevant local government offices, credit institutions, UN Agencies and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). Location-specific information was provided by CARE International, the Danish Refugee Council, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the Jebel Marra Project, and the United Methodist Committee for Relief (UMCOR) (S Darfur).

In southern Sudan, the Mission team included, in addition to representatives from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and HAC, members of staff of the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and a member of staff of the EU Joint Research Center (JRC). Location-specific information was provided by several NGOs including Action Contre la Faim (ACF), CARE International, Oxfam-UK, the ICRC, Islamic Africa Relief Agency (IARA), International Rescue Committee (IRC), SudanAid, Swedish Free Mission (SFM), Women’s Self Help, Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Bahr El Gazhal Youth Development Agency (BYDA), CONCERN, Tearfund (TF), Vétérinaires sans Frontières (VSF)-Belgium. Information on population was provided by the Information Management Unit for Sudan of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA–IMU).

The main effect of the progress made so far since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005, is a sense of improved security in southern Sudan and in the Nuba Mountains. This has led to increased freedom of movement and investment of time and energy in land cultivation and other rural endeavours allowing for an expansion of cropped land and the incipient resettlement of previously displaced families. As a result, in 2005, area cultivated is estimated to have increased from 2004 due to more people farming and yields are also up due to favourable rainfall and a migratory pest-free year. The positive effects of timely rains, with few significant breaks, are apparent in all areas except northern regions of North Bahr el Ghazal State and Kapoeta in East Equatoria State. There were adequate seed supplies among the settled farmers, and IDPs, returnees and host families benefited from FAO-supported improved seed distributions that were both timely and appropriate. In 2005, only in limited areas was insecurity threatening the well-being of the rural population. In particular, the atrocities committed by the Lord’s Resistance Army in the south/southeast remain a real and continuing threat to any return to normal living. Elsewhere, significant disruption to the annual farming cycle in late June/early July was noted on the east bank near Malakal due to marauding militia; in payams in Yirol, due to internecine clashes related to county boundary changes and in areas where the Falata Mborroro (nomads) have temporarily relocated due to shifts in grazing patterns resulting from the effects of the conflict in Darfur and are clashing with the indigenous farmers and pastoralists.

In northern Sudan, the cropped areas in all three sectors-irrigated, mechanised rainfed, and traditional-increased significantly in 2005, and yields were generally better than in 2004. Aggregate production across the three sectors is considerably better than the previous year’s poor performance and is above the long-term average. However, insecurity in Darfur, though less pronounced during the planting season, continues to seriously hamper harvest in that region.

Overall, the Mission estimates the total cereal production from the whole of Sudan for 2005/06 at about 5.29 million tonnes, comprising 4.07 million tonnes of sorghum, 663 000 tonnes of millet, 120 000 tonnes of maize, 35 000 tonnes of rice and a forecast of 400 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2006). This represents an increase of 55 percent over the previous year’s poor crop and about 17 percent over the average for the previous five years. In anticipation of an adequate harvest, cereal prices throughout the country began to fall significantly in November from the record high prices reached during the summer months of 2005 are now about 50 percent below the peak levels. Still in many States prices are almost double the long-term monthly average. Pasture and water supplies are satisfactory over most of the country and livestock health is good. Livestock prices have begun to rise slightly in response to the favourable conditions.

Current improvements in road and river links in southern Sudan herald the re-establishment of commercial interchanges between agro-ecological zones. Better security and road rehabilitation work is already allowing traders to shift agricultural surpluses by bicycle and to a limited extent by truck, from where they are produced to the towns where the population has the cash to access the products. On a larger scale, trade is noted to be increasing between Uganda and Bahr-El Jebel following the opening of the Yei-Juba road in late September. Similarly, in East Equatoria, the opening of the road Kapoeta-Torit is leading to steady trading from Kenya. Repairs of the worst sections of the Kaja-Rumbek road, carried out by WFP as emergency repair project, have resulted in a decline in transport time and costs increasing commercial traffic from Uganda to Lakes and facilitating the movement of relief aid. Trade links are also expanding to the north with increased frequency of barges from Kosti to Malakal and Juba. These developments have generally contributed to a decline in commodity prices in many urban centres of southern Sudan.

Despite these very positive developments, key roads remain impassable and the present conditions still do not allow the required large-scale commercial exchange of agricultural surplus between the south-west “green belt” and deficit areas in the north and south-east. As a result, the overall socio-economic situation remains much as described in previous years. Communities in the lower-rainfall zones predominantly of the north and south-east still depend, ultimately, on humanitarian aid for food security. With the exception of the oil-industry in Bentiu (Unity State) and the minor boom in support services to GOSS and international agencies establishing themselves in Juba (and Rumbek), few opportunities for income generation other than the manual exploitation of natural resources are apparent for the time being. In addition, although the situation in Darfur shows some improvement since the peak of the conflict with the installation of AMIS, insecurity is still a significant constraint to agricultural production and to the free movement of agricultural produce.

Increased export earnings from oil have continued to boost overall economic activity. Oil exports rose from zero in 1998 to US$3 billion in 2004 and nearly doubled to US$5.8 billion in 2005, accounting for more than 85 percent of exports. In 2006, as a result of oil-export earnings, the current account is expected to move to a surplus for the first time since 1985. Real GDP growth accelerated to reach an average of 7.3 percent and 7.7 percent in 2004 and 2005 respectively. In 2006 GDP growth is forecast at 9 percent. Foreign exchange reserves nearly doubled to US$1.6 billion in 2004 compared to 2003 and rose to US$1.8 billion in first quarter of 2005. This is an all-time high for Sudan - during the two decades before the development of the country's oil export sector reserves averaged at just US$75m - and has done much to increase its resilience to external shocks. These factors have also led to the appreciation of the Sudanese dinar.

The overall food situation in Sudan, is therefore, favourable. At the aggregate level, the country is able to cover all of its cereal requirements following the above-average cereal production and the country’s enhanced ability to import commercially to cover any domestic shortfalls. However, the highly skewed income and food distribution within the country and the problems of physical and financial access to food due to war, displacement, economic isolation and limited purchasing power render millions of vulnerable people dependent on food assistance for their survival. More than two decades of war in southern Sudan, the current conflict in Darfur and insecurity in other parts have left millions in a precarious food situation and abysmal living conditions. As a result, for the various interventions in Sudan the Mission estimates that a total of about 800 000 tonnes of mixed food aid commodities, including 555 000 tonnes of cereals, will be required as emergency food aid during 2006 in order to meet the needs of 6.71 million people — about 10 percent of the total cereal requirements for human consumption of the country covering partial food requirements of about 15 percent of the total population.

ICRC (Greater Darfur) and some NGOs (CARE International in Khartoum; NPA and CRS in South Sudan, ADRA in White Nile, OXFAM in Red Sea) have independent food aid pipelines and primarily work in locations where WFP does not operate. It is expected that they will provide an additional 60 000 to 70 000 tonnes towards the total food aid requirement. As in previous years, careful planning of food aid related relief and rehabilitation activities will be necessary to ensure not only that the locations needing assistance are adequately covered amongst various partners but also that duplication of food assistance is avoided in States where several partners - including national institutions such as SRC - may be operating. The complex situation described above requires a cautious approach in designing both relief and rehabilitation interventions. On the one hand, steps should be taken to build on the positive developments by enhancing more medium to longer-term interventions. On the other hand, continued relief assistance is needed for IDPs, returnees and other vulnerable groups affected by the protracted conflict. In light of these factors, food assistance programmes in the country should, where feasible, attempt to purchase cereals from local sources. This is expected to encourage local production and promote the development of markets while providing commodities that are consistent with local consumption habits. In early December 2005, the Strategic Reserve Corporation announced its willingness to purchase a maximum of 500 000 tonnes of grains locally and had set the floor price at SD5 000/90 kg bag. This is encouraging but such announcements would have to be made early enough, before planting, to allow farmers to make informed decision. Furthermore, the current structure of coarse grain production and trading in Sudan is such that domestic prices are much higher than the prevailing world market price, which makes it difficult for international organizations to justify local procurement. This is so except where local purchases and deliveries are “protected” by high transportation costs, compared to world market supply prices. Also, the current situation is unlike that in 2004, when WFP alone purchased over 100 000 tonnes of cereals—about four times the average of local purchases in the previous five years. The 2005/06 harvest is an improvement over the previous year but not at the level of the 2003-04 bumper harvest.

The “real” increase in cereal prices could also have a significant impact particularly on the fixed income segment of the population who may not necessarily benefit from the boom in the labour market while absorbing the current inflationary pressures.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

2.1 General

Several parts of Sudan have been devastated by decades of civil wars and conflict, destruction of physical and human resources, and erosion of institutions and social capital. The state of continuous conflict that had prevailed since 1983 in southern Sudan ended in 2005 with the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). This agreement provides for six years of joint rule before a plebiscite in 2011 to determine whether the region will continue as an autonomous part of Sudan or become an independent sovereign state. The CPA also includes special provisions for Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile (also referred to as the Transitional Areas or the Three Areas).

The yet unresolved conflict in the three states of Darfur remains a large-scale humanitarian emergency, with a high toll in terms economic and social disruption, and loss of life. Peace talks between the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebel groups are ongoing, but conflict continues and the United Nations and NGOs are continuing to provide humanitarian relief.

Another volatile region is in Eastern Sudan where opposition forces from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) control of pockets of territory, including most of the Hamesh Koreib province on the Eritrean border. According to the terms of the CPA, the SPLA is to hand over control of the area to the Government of National Unity (GoNU) by 9 January 2006. However, continued opposition to GoNU by eastern movements presents a potential for renewed conflicts in the region.

2.2 Population

Estimating population in Sudan is a daunting task. The most recent government census, in 1993, could not be carried out in southern Sudan so that even that survey – now 12 years out of date – is not national in scope. Nevertheless, the population figure from that census – 24.9 million – serves as the point of departure for estimates of the population of northern Sudan. In southern Sudan, population dynamics are highly fluid with large refugee and IDP flows, unknown numbers of war deaths, compounded by inconsistent area definitions. Counting a semi-nomadic population is also complicated by the fact that the men are often away with their cattle. As a result, population estimates for southern Sudan differ enormously, ranging from 5 to 10 million.

In previous years, the most commonly used population estimate for southern Sudan was based on information from the 2002 and 2003 WHO/UNICEF Polio Immunization Days (NDIs)¹. The publication of the NSCSE/UNICEF report “Towards a Baseline: Best estimates of social indicators for Southern Sudan” in 2004 provided new population estimates based on a comprehensive review of available demographic indicators, migration assumptions, and the review of the WHO/NDIs based population estimate. The NSCSE estimates the population as of 2003 at 7.5 million, with a natural growth rate (NGR) of 2.85 percent. Forward projection of the 2003 population has been made difficult by the lack of accurate information on the number and family composition of refugees and IDPs returning to the south in 2004 and 2005.

The NSCSE estimate covers only the former rebel-held areas and does not include population in the towns previously controlled by the government. Figures for these populations were not available at the National Statistic Bureau in Khartoum, either, but estimates vary from 500 000 to over 1 million people.

Taking account of these separate sets of population estimates, Table 1 and Table 2 below indicate estimates for northern Sudan, based on Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and southern Sudan, based on the above-mentioned NSCSE 2003 population estimate.

Table 1: Sudan - Population estimates in Northern Sudan and three areas, 2004 and 2005 (CBS)

In estimating population data for southern Sudan, the following considerations/assumptions have been made:

• The year 2003 has been adopted as baseline because it is the latest year for which a single set of statistics showing population by county is available. NSCSE population projections for 2004 are available only for some counties.

• The administrative division of Southern Sudan shown in Table 2 on population does not reflect changes in county boundaries subsequent to 2003. (Border of counties and payams were still changing at the time of the Mission).

• An annual average growth rate of 2.85 percent has been used for all counties/states, as no disaggregated information by state was available.

• Population data from the towns excluded from the NSCSE analysis (the former “garrison towns”) has been added taking information provided to the previous year’s Mission by the State Ministries of Agriculture, projected into 2006 at the average growth rate.

• Preliminary estimates of the number of returnees, generated by OCHA, (2004: 532 650 people, 2005: 296 008 people) have been added. In the absence of better information on the family composition of the returnee population, this subset of population was also projected to grow at the same NGR as the rest of the population.

• The 2006 population refers to the mid-year settled population. Expected further returns to Southern Sudan (excluding the transitional areas and the South-south IDP returnees), estimated by OCHA between 231 000 and 632 000, have not been included.

Accordingly, Sudan’s total population in 2005 is estimated at about 39.2 million, comprising of 29.9 million in northern Sudan and about 9.3 million in southern Sudan. However, it is important to underline that in absence of firm and comprehensive statistics on population, the Mission’s population figures, and the derived production and food deficit estimates, should be taken with caution. In March 2005, UNFPA began planning for a comprehensive population census in Sudan at an expected cost of about US$60 million. A population census, to be completed within the first two years of the interim period, is required under the provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed by the Government of Sudan and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Table 2: Sudan - Population and household estimates in Southern Sudan, 2003 and 2005

2.3 Macro-economic situation

Real GDP growth accelerated to reach an average of 7.3 percent and 7.7 percent in 2004 and 2005 respectively. In 2006 GDP growth is forecast at 9 percent. The GDP sectoral composition in 2004 indicate the continued dominance of the agricultural sector at 44.5 percent followed by the service sector at 30.1 percent and the manufacturing sector at 24.4 percent.

Exports of oil have given a significant boost to Sudan’s economy and triggered large changes in the macro-economic environment. Oil exports rose from zero in 1998 to US$3 billion in 2004, and then nearly doubled – to US$5.8 billion – in 2005. They now account for more than 85 percent of exports. As a result, the current account is expected to move to a surplus position in 2006, for the first time since 1985. The surplus is projected to amount to US$310 million (0.8 percent of GDP) in 2006, as compared to a deficit of about US$720 million (2.6 percent of GDP) in 2005.

The narrowness of Sudan’s export position is an emerging structural weakness that may become a concern over the long term, given the historical volatility of international oil markets. However, in the short term the concentration has been of benefit as prices have hit record highs, and strong earnings offset the weakness of the non-oil sector in the first quarter. On the other hand, the relative importance of agricultural exports has declined dramatically. In 2004, agricultural exports accounted for about 17 percent of total exports, as compared to more than 90 percent in the early 1990s. In 2005, not only the relative importance but also the amount of revenue from agricultural exports declined. In the first six months of 2005 agricultural exports revenue declined by nearly 25 percent relative to the same period in 2004. This largely reflects the combined impacts of the poor 2004/05 agricultural season and conflict in the Darfur region, which has historically been one of the main sources of livestock for export.

Foreign exchange reserves nearly doubled in 2004, to US$1.6 billion, and rose to US$1.8 billion in first quarter of 2005.This is an all-time high for Sudan –during the two decades before the development of the country's oil export sector reserves averaged just US$75m – and has done much to increase its resilience to external shocks. The Sudanese dinar has continued to strengthen against the US dollar, reflecting Sudan's robust external-account performance during the ongoing oil boom. In 2003 and 2004 the exchange rate averaged SD261:US$1 and SD258:US$1 respectively. In December 2005 the dinar stood at SD231:US$1, compared with SD250:US$1 in the first quarter of 2005 and SD248:US$1 in the second quarter. The appreciation has been made possible by the open auctions and wider daily trading bands that the reformed currency regime allows.

The real appreciation is even greater than the nominal appreciation of close to 7 percent in 2005, and must have begun to undermine the competitiveness of Sudan's non-oil export base. The strength of the currency will also serve to further fuel rapid growth in demand for imported goods, which have become significantly cheaper in inflation-adjusted local-currency terms.

Average inflation in 2004 was 8.5 percent, up from an annual average of 7.8 percent in 2003, and is estimated at 11 percent in 2005. Consumer prices will be subject to greater upward pressures during the post-conflict era, as domestic demand strengthens and the cost of imports grows. As a result, in 2006 inflation is projected to increase further to 12.5 percent. Although these rates are higher than the government’s target of 5 percent, inflation is expected to remain much below the rates in the 1990s.

2.4 The agricultural sector

Despite the diminishing share in overall export earnings, the agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of Sudan’s economy in terms of its contribution to GDP. Overall, agriculture represented 44.5 percent of the GDP in 2004, of which 24.7 percent was from crop production while 19.8 percent was from livestock. There are no official statistics of GDP composition in the areas of southern Sudan affected by the conflict, but agriculture is considered the most important sector. Agriculture also remains the main source of employment and household income in rural areas where 65 percent of the population live. About 80 percent of the labour force is employed in agriculture and related activities such as agro-industries.

Growth rate in the agricultural sector has noticeably declined from 7.3 percent in 2002 to 5.2 percent in 2003 and to 4.5 percent in 2004. The decline in 2003 was mainly due to the deterioration in the traditional rain-fed agriculture while further decline in 2004 is attributed to the poor performance of the mechanised rain-fed agriculture. Crop production, which is dominated by cereals, is characterised by high levels of annual fluctuations mainly due to high rainfall variations. Of an estimated 84 million ha of arable land (with reasonably fertile soils), 1.89, 8.37 and 5.44 million ha respectively were under irrigated agriculture, traditional rain-fed cultivation and mechanized farming in the years 2000-2004 agricultural seasons.

Livestock form an important component of the agricultural sector, with production mainly based on traditional pastoral systems (90 percent of the livestock in the country belong to the traditional pastoral production systems). FAO estimates the camel, cattle, sheep and goat population in 2004 at 3.3, 38.3, 48.0 and 42.0 million head, respectively. At this level, Sudan has one of the largest livestock populations in Africa. Livestock are raised mainly by pastoral and agro-pastoral groups, with the former dependent on livestock and the latter on both livestock and cultivation. The herd size may vary from below fifty head to a few thousands per household. Pastoral herds are mainly semi-nomadic, as is the case in western Sudan and southern Blue Nile where traditional movements occur between wet and dry-season grazing areas. Systems range from those in southern Sudan that sell a few head of cattle to full commercial sales by pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and commercial producers in the north. Income from the sale of livestock is used to meet household food requirements, market goods, drugs, vaccines, salt, feeds and to pay water fees and tax.

With 8 million head of cattle and 8 million head of small ruminants estimated to be kept in southern Sudan the contribution of animals to household food economies is considerable. Cattle raiding may have altered local distribution patterns in Jonglei, Upper Nile, East Equatoria and Bahr el Jebel, but there is not thought to have been any significant migration out of the country, except for normal transhumance and movement of slaughter stock.

2.5  Poverty and food insecurity

Poverty research at the national level in Sudan has tended to make use of data supplied as a by-product of surveys, carried out at different times, whose principal objectives were not poverty-specific in either focus or design. These include the 1992 Household Survey (CBS 1992, mainly for northern Sudan; the Safe Motherhood Survey (1999), carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in collaboration with UNFPA, and the 2000 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) carried out in collaboration with UNICEF. All these surveys were confined to northern Sudan and, at best, some areas under Government control in the south.

Notwithstanding the recent promising economic growth in Sudan, widespread poverty, skewed income distribution, and inadequate delivery of social services remain serious problems. Sudan is a least developed country with very poor socio-economic indicators: UNDP’s 2005 human development report ranked Sudan 141^st out of 177 countries. Despite data limitations, coverage, and eventually controversies, proxy national-level data estimates tell more about conditions of endemic hunger. Nutrition data from the federal Ministry of Health show that the global acute malnutrition rate (GAM) in 1997-2001 was 26 percent – 19.5 percent for the north and 32.4 percent for the south (a rate above 15 percent is globally considered an emergency situation and requires immediate intervention).

Statistics by the New Sudan Centre for Statistics and Evaluation (NSCSE) and UNICEF provides dire information about socio-economic conditions, which put southern Sudan among the poorest regions in the world. The Gross National Income per capita in 2001 was estimated to be less than US$90 per year, some four times lower than the level of the rest of Sudan and one of the lowest in the world. The proportion of the population earning less than one dollar a day is estimated at around 90 percent. Southern Sudan has the least access to primary education in the world (2002) and, in terms of adult literacy rate (24 percent), the region is one of the lowest in the world. High rates of infant mortality results in one out of every four newborns dying before the age of five (2001-2003), and the prevalence of severe malnutrition (21 percent) among the children under-five is close to the extreme values.

Several factors have contributed to the high incidence of poverty in Sudan in spite of recent economic growth, including internal conflict; ill-conceived development policies that neglected rural development; and natural disasters – mainly drought – that led to conflict over resources. The main constraints to poverty reduction have been a near absence of investment in the social sectors and rural development along with consequent conflicts in the South and, recently, in Darfur. These conflicts have affected all aspects of life and caused massive displacement and migration of people from conflict-stricken area, to major urban centres in the northern and central parts of the country and to neighbouring countries. This exodus has further eroded the capacities of the already weak and vulnerable host communities and led to increased levels of deprivation. Poverty has also been exacerbated by environmental factors. Since the mid-1980’s, erratic rainfall and increased occurrence of drought, localized or otherwise, compounded the suffering of large numbers of farmers and agro-pastoral herders.

For Sudan to escape the poverty trap and ensure security and stability, ongoing conflicts must be speedily resolved and the root causes of conflict must be addressed. Though peace is a necessary pre-condition for the reduction of poverty and improvement of food security it is not the only one. The consolidation of the peace process might be the starting point for the achievement of sustainable food security in Sudan, progress towards recovery and development is unlikely to be linear. Emergency, recovery and development situations are likely to coexist in Sudan for many years to come. In order to pre-empt conflict, priority strategic objectives should include increasing access to food, credit, jobs, markets and basic services, and achieving a more equitable geographical and sectoral allocation of public resources, as well as reducing chronic and transitory food insecurity. Improvements in agriculture – including both crop and livestock production – will be central to achieving broad-based improvements in well-being

The level of investment needed for the reconstruction and development of the country is enormous and, despite increases in government revenues, will require external financing². Due to the state of protracted crisis that has characterised Sudan, external assistance has been mostly of a humanitarian nature (with food aid representing over 50 percent of the total value).

Table 3: Sudan - Food aid deliveries in cereal equivalent (‘000 tonnes)

Several new initiatives are being planned in agriculture and food security, both in the North and the South, mainly managed by the World Bank, in collaboration with several development partners.

3.  AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN 2005/06

3.1 Main factors affecting cereal production in 2005

3.1.1  Agricultural finance and credit

The provision of short-term agricultural credit, through the Agricultural Bank of Sudan, for the irrigated and mechanised rainfed sectors continues to show steady but slow progress, though there is wide variation amongst the various branches with regard to performance and efficiency. For instance, in River Nile State 22 percent of field crops were financed by the ABS, whereas in Northern the corresponding figure was only 10 percent. In White Nile State a large number of farmers received sorghum seed that they were told was ‘Tabet’ variety, through the ABS in Kosti. It turned out to be a poor-quality heterogeneous mix, but this was not recognised until the crop was well established in the field. Litigation is pending.

The ‘selem’ system of loans, whereby the farmers must pay back their loans in kind at a nominal value much lower than what they could expect to get in the market, is seen as a real constraint to their getting out of the perpetual loan cycle. At least two states in the North (White Nile and River Nile) commissioned local groups of farmers to produce seed but were unable to buy the seeds produced because of lack of funding. In White Nile, irrigation started much later than intended because funds were not available to buy fuel for the scheme pumps. Farmers frequently complain that they are forced to sell their produce to traders for a price below the floor price as they have urgent cash requirements.

Credit and finance for traditional agriculture remains, understandably, at a very low level, with problems of non-viable collateral, small loan levels, geographical distance and the logistics of recovery. Attempts have been made to form cooperatives but few have had any success. The national credit situation may soon improve with the recent initiation, following the signing of the north-south peace agreement, of a microfinance project involving the World Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, and a sum of USD 269 million over a period of six years. This will be aimed in part at the traditional sector.

3.1.2 Rainfall

Average annual rainfall in Sudan ranges from almost zero in the north of the country to 1 800 mm in the southern state of Western Equatoria. The seasonal maximum Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) reveals that in the 2005 season a pattern of above-average vegetation development dominated across most of Sudan. Areas where conditions have been consistently better than average through 2005 include areas of South Darfur, parts of West Kordofan, South Kordofan, northern Upper Nile, Blue Nile, Unity and western Jonglei. Other areas of improved performance include West Darfur, North Darfur, upper West Kordofan, North Kordofan, Sennar, Gedaref and Kassala. This was generally borne out by field visits and farmer interviews. Figures 1 to 8 indicate the dekadal rainfall performance of selected sites throughout the country.

Light rains started in early May in South Darfur, South Kordofan, White Nile and Blue Nile States and extended northwards over the next two months. July and August brought good, well-distributed rains to most agricultural areas although there were some important inconsistencies; part of Gedaref, the country’s largest rainfed mechanised area, and northern White Nile State reported poor, irregular rains during this period. In North Darfur, there was some flooding in August which necessitated re-planting. The chronically food-insecure parts of Red Sea State got some benefit from 2005’s better rains and registered a slight increase in main-season production; the coastal winter rains were still awaited at the end of November.

Figure 1: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Gedaref in 2005 compared to average

Figure 2: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Damazin in 2005 compared to average

While many areas in the north of the country received some rain into early October, others, such as parts of South and West Darfur experienced a sudden cessation or a substantial diminution in early September. Several farmers there, tempted by the very promising impression given by the August rains, planted late and were rewarded with good vegetative growth but poor grain-filling. Following 2005’s better rains, river levels were, and continue to be, satisfactory for irrigation. The demira crop was satisfactory, and in River Nile State the heavy rains during August allowed the expansion of residual-moisture sorghum into large areas of land that had not been cultivated for fifteen years. In eastern Sudan, Tokar spate irrigation scheme recorded 24 flushes throughout the season, and the situation in Gash was said to be similarly productive.

Figure 3: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Nyala in 2005 compared to average

Figure 4: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in El-Fasher in 2005 compared to average

Figure 5: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Kassala in 2005 compared to average

In southern Sudan, annual rainfall usually increases from north to south and from east to west, ranging from less than 300 mm in the dry lands of Eastern Equatoria to 1 800 mm in the Greenbelt. During 2005, satellite imagery suggested a basic pattern across the south that was, for the most part, far better than the previous year, with rains starting at the expected time and continuing less erratically than the previous year, albeit with some dry spells, usually of less than 10 days, in late June/early July and in September. There were some exceptions to this general pattern, such as northern North Bahr el Ghazal and eastern East Equatoria.

Figure 6: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Aweil in 2005 compared to average

Figure 7: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Torit in 2005 compared to average

Figure 8: Sudan - Dekadal rainfall and vegetation in Renk in 2005 compared to average

The quantity of precipitation over the year was within the normal range for most areas, resulting in an average or better-than-average vegetation index in all but the two localities noted above. However, in all cases, the rains were reported to be better than the previous year. This resulted in

• a much better performance of the early planted, short-cycle sorghums and early planted maize in Upper Nile, West Bahr el Ghazal, and Lakes, but a similar performance to the previous year’s poor crop in northern parts of North Bahr el Ghazal and Kapoeta.

• extended planting of middle-cycle sorghums in all areas and an improved crop performance to date over the previous year in all localities, except for the two noted above.

• extended planting of long-cycle sorghums in all areas and an improved performance to date over the previous year in all localities where such crops are regularly grown.

• a slow start to the season in West Equatoria.

3.1.3 Area planted

A larger area of cereal crop was planted in 2005 than in 2004, both north and south, and in all three sectors-irrigated, mechanised rainfed and traditional. Several factors contributed to this expansion. Firstly, the rains were better than the previous year. Secondly, because the poor rains of the previous year resulted in a poor harvest, cereal prices reached very high levels, encouraging farmers to grow more in 2005. Thirdly, security was greatly improved in the south and slightly improved in Darfur, meaning that more land could be prepared, weeded and if the situation continued, harvested in safety. There was 47 percent more land planted under cereals in Greater Darfur in 2005 than there was the previous year. Over the whole country, north and south, there was a year-on-year increase of 57 percent. The greatest increase was seen in the traditional sector which grew by 68 percent. This was followed by the mechanised rainfed sector which grew by 54 percent. The irrigated sector registered a modest expansion of 11 percent. Tokar and Gash irrigation schemes especially benefited from the good rains and covered an extra 34 000 feddans between them in 2005 compared to the previous season. New Halfa scheme saw a 46 percent increase in area, largely as a result of canal maintenance work and of clearing the invasive mesquite shrub from a large part of the scheme.

3.1.4 Agricultural inputs

There was generally good provision of crop and vegetable seed in 2005 from a variety of sources including the Federal Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), FAO and a number of NGOs. Some were distributed free of charge to traditional farmers; for instance, FAO provided more than 1 500 tonnes, 239 tonnes and 314 tonnes of crop seeds in Darfur, eastern Sudan and South Kordofan respectively. MoA provided crop seeds amounting to 239 tonnes, 668 tonnes, and 731 tonnes in South Darfur, North Kordofan and Kassala. In the other sectors, seeds were provided as loans. The varieties available were, with few exceptions, appropriate to the intended environment, and included ‘Tabet’, ‘Wad Ahmed’ and ‘Arfa Gadamek’. The use of improved seed in the irrigated and mechanised rainfed sectors appears to be on the increase.

In southern Sudan, there remains a firm reliance on local landraces, either farm-produced and carried over from one year to the next, supplied by kinship connections or purchased in local markets. In addition, most agencies providing planting material to IDPs, returnees and vulnerable households buy and redistribute local landraces rather than exotic varieties that are often not used or perform less well than indigenous material. Support in 2005 includes the provision by FAO of 284 tonnes of sorghum, 137 tonnes of groundnuts, 59 tonnes of maize/rice, 29.8 tonnes of sesame seed and 35 800 kits of assorted vegetable seeds through various agencies; and through projects organised by the Tearfund NGO, a recycling of locally grown rice seeds in Bahr el Ghazal.

Large numbers of hand-tools were distributed in 2005 to traditional farmers, especially in conflict-affected areas, in order to rehabilitate productive capacity. In West Darfur, for instance, 84 000 items were distributed as well as 2 470 donkey ploughs, while in South Darfur FAO distributed 98 000 hand-tools and 2 270 donkey ploughs. In southern Sudan, 177 000 hand tools were distributed to some 109 000 beneficiary households

Fuel for tractors and irrigation pumps continues to be subsidised, thus mitigating the increases in the cost of production occasioned by other factors. The national tractor fleet remains seriously inefficient because of poor maintenance, shortage of spare parts and simple age. However, some schemes have invested in new machinery and implements such as seed drills; with Government assistance to the agricultural sector, such as the removal of import taxes for essential items, this trend could continue. Some irrigation schemes have acquired new pumps.

In southern Sudan, animal traction, introduced in Yei, Lakes and Bahr el Ghazal, can make a difference at household level, more than doubling the area that can be farmed by an individual household. This potential may not be fully realized, however, as manpower is still required for weeding and in good rainfall years the cost of labour becomes a constraint. This, coupled with a reported lack of spare parts and the full cost- recovery approach adopted by the NGOs – requiring either cash payment or hefty deposits and complete reimbursement in the first year - is reducing uptake of plough technology. Training programmes have ceased in the sample sites visited and the few local initiatives to maintain the impetus of uptake of the technology are noted. Only in Ikotos (CRS), Yirol (BYDA) and Malualakon (Tear fund) were small sale programmes evident. Closer to the towns and in the GOS areas tractors are the preferred option for agricultural expansion. So far, only 5 000 ploughs are estimated to have been distributed in Lakes/ Bahr el Ghazal since the programmes began in the middle nineties. (Figures for Yei are not included).

The rapidly rising cost of labour across the country is of concern to all but subsistence farmers. In some cases, especially near urban centres, wage rates have risen threefold in the last 12 months. There are several reasons for this increase, including the increased level of inflation, the movement of displaced southerners back to the south (diminishing the available labour pool in high production areas); the cultivation of their own plots by erstwhile members of the labour pool in response to increased security and better rains; the increasing popularity of gum arabic collection which offers a more pleasant and more lucrative source of income than farm labour; and the movement of labourers into urban centres where, with the country’s increasing oil wealth, there are now more job opportunities in the construction industry. Partly as a response to high labour costs, increasing numbers of farmers, especially in the mechanised rainfed sector are starting to use 2,4-D for the control of broadleaved weeds in their cereal crops. The chemical is often provided by scheme management at cost.

3.1.5 Weeds, pests and diseases

The 2005 cropping season was a largely pest-free year over most of Sudan. In the North, some effective campaigns were carried out by SMOAs to control local birds and Quelea quelea, sorghum bug (Agonoscelis pubescens) and grasshoppers. Quelea is classified as a national pest and, as such, its control is the responsibility of the federal MOA; in 2005, however, numbers were relatively small. Desert locust control was carried out in some states; in South Darfur for instance a spraying campaign covered an area of 8 000 hectares and in North Darfur 4 000 hectares were sprayed out of a total of 27 000 surveyed. Sorghum midge and stem borers were reported from Kassala. In the drier parts of North Darfur, millet headworm (Heliocheilus albipunctella) caused significant local damage. Closed smut is common on the sorghum crop, but levels have generally been low in 2005.

Watermelon bug (Aspongopus viduatus) caused extensive damage in the west of North Kordofan whereas in the north and east it was controlled manually through a WFP food-for-work programme. Date palms in Northern and River Nile States are an important source of income for a very large number of families. In recent years they have been attacked by green scales which are thought to have been brought from South Africa. About one million palms are thought to be infested in Northern State alone. The scales severely limit production and may eventually kill their hosts. Cultural practices and the systemic insecticide Konfidor have been identified as an effective treatment, but the Konfidor is expensive.

Striga is a perennial problem for sorghum producers. Often when infestation reaches a certain threshold the farmer will switch to millet which is less susceptible to the parasitic weed. Another parasitic weed, Orobanche, is reported to be becoming increasingly troublesome on irrigated fields in the north, especially amongst beans and other horticultural crops. With the high cost of labour for weeding, mechanised farmers are increasingly turning to the use of 2,4-D for the control of broad-leaved weeds amongst their cereal crops. A programme to remove the thorny weed mesquite from New Halfa has achieved clearance of 75 percent of its area of coverage. The weed remains an invasive problem in other irrigation schemes.

Pest levels in the South were also low in 2005. At Renk, sorghum-bug sites were aerial-sprayed before the beginning of the season in April and May, and spraying was carried out against migratory Quelea quelea in two or three nesting locations in October. In a good rainfall year local grasses that invade continuously must be kept under control. Weeding was carried out up to three times in the traditional sector and at least once in the mechanised schemes in Renk. Striga was of less concern in 2005 with greater security permitting the avoidance of infested land. Where farmers have continued to cultivate exhausted plots the weed remains a problem. The major plant diseases-rosette virus and leaf spot of groundnuts, mosaic virus of cassava and sorghum smut-remain the same as the previous year.

3.1.6 National cereal production forecast

Total national cereal production for Sudan in 2005/06 is forecast at 5.29 million tonnes, comprising 4.1 million tonnes of sorghum, 663 000 tonnes of millet, 400 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2006), 120 000 tonnes of maize, and 35 000 tonnes of rice. Total cereal production will be about 55 percent above that of the previous year and 17 percent above the average for the preceding five years. Production from the traditional sector in the South is estimated to have increased by more than 30 percent in 2005. Production figures by state for 2005/06, and comparisons with those for 2004/05, are given in Table 4. Cereal areas, yields and production by region for the last five years are given in Table 5. Note the year-to-year fluctuations in the level of production, largely attributable to rainfall variations. These correlate well with the corresponding year-to-year fluctuations in cereal prices, suggesting a role for production and market stabilisation mechanisms.

Table 4: Sudan - Cereal production forecast for 2005/06, and estimates of 2004/05 production (‘000 tonnes)