(Item 7 of the Agenda)
46. Romeo RECIDE, Director, Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, Philippines, presented the Draft Manual on Analysing and Utilizing Agricultural Censuses for consideration by the Experts. He explained that this manual was designed as a guide for conducting preliminary analysis of census data and presenting results to make them meaningful to users. It would not aim to provide detailed methods for detailed statistical analysis but would illustrate the potential of such analyses and of effective methods of presentation in assisting decision-makers in formulating and carrying out policy interventions that are evidence-based. The contents of the Draft Manual were organized as outlined below:
1. Introduction
1.1. Role of agriculture in the economy
1.2. Role of statistical information in formulation of agricultural policies and programmes
1.3. Censuses of agriculture
1.4. Complete enumeration vs sample "census"
1.5. Difference between agriculture census results and sample survey results
1.6. Need for more understanding and support of agricultural censuses2. Descriptive profiles
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Tables
2.2.1. One-way tables
2.2.2. Two-way and multiway tables
2.3. Charts and Maps
2.3.1. Bar charts
2.3.2. Pie charts
2.3.3. Statistical maps
2.4. Textual Descriptions3. Evaluating observed differences
3.1. Between two means or proportions
3.2. Among more than two means or proportions4. Establishing relationships
4.1. Among categorical observations
4.2. Among numerical measurements5. Analysing trends
5.1. Across time
5.2. Across space6. Issues related to analysis of agriculture census
6.1. Agricultural activities in households classified as "non-farms"
6.2. Capital formation in agriculture7. Concluding remarks
47. In the discussion, the Experts expressed appreciation for FAO's efforts to support the production of the Manual and recognized that the Manual would be useful for staff of the institutions responsible for the analysis, presentation and dissemination of results of censuses and surveys. It was noted that while many national statistical systems have had long experience in census-taking and had developed skills in organizing and analysing data, some others lacked experience and needed guidance in this area.
48. Specific suggestions made by the Experts to improve the Draft Manual included discussion on the issues of reconciling census and survey results and of reporting farm data by residence of the operator or by the location of the parcels. The Experts noted the wealth of examples contained in the Draft Manual but also suggested that more recent examples be given instead of outdated ones.
49. The Experts recommended that FAO take appropriate steps to finalize the Manual and make it available to users in the soonest possible time frame.
50. B. GOEL, FAO consultant, presented a number of pre-harvest crop forecasting techniques, including rapid appraisal methods based on crop reporting systems, agro-meteorological crop monitoring, crop forecasting surveys conducted jointly by ministries of agriculture and national agricultural statistics agencies, objective crop forecast sample surveys and various crop forecasting models. The strengths and weaknesses of the available approaches were discussed.
51. While it would be ideal to conduct objective crop forecasting surveys, the Experts realized that they may not be feasible on account of the high cost and delays in collection and analysis of data and that an agronomic approach based on crop monitoring and/or agro-meteorological monitoring was more likely to be sustainable.
52. The Expert Consultation was apprised of increasing demand for pre-harvest crop forecasts from various stakeholders in view of global concerns for food security and of setting up national, regional and the global information and early warning systems (GIEWS) of FAO.
53. After the Experts were provided with an overview of the crop forecasting techniques currently being used in various countries they cautioned that while timeliness in preparing crop forecasts was crucial, serious attention also needed to be given to improving their reliability and accuracy, keeping in mind the users' requirements.
54. The Experts agreed that no single forecasting technique could be recommended for use by all countries, and that a choice had to be made by the countries themselves, keeping in view their specific needs, organizational set-up and capabilities and resources of the ministry of agriculture and the national statistical agency in data/information gathering and analysis in the country.
55. Experts from several countries briefly described the crop forecasting approaches being used in their respective countries and indicated that there was a need to improve them.
56. Various types of crop forecasting models that could be used to provide quick and cost-effective forecasts of crop yields were presented to the Expert Consultation. These models, some already operational, included biometrical models, agro-meteorological models, econometric models and models based on satellite data.
57. Various types of operational models were brought to the notice of the Experts, including: i) the FAO water balance model used in several countries; ii) the agro-meteorological model for forecasting paddy yield using a weather index in Japan; iii) biometrical models using plant density; iv) the models using measurements of cobs/ear heads when they were fully developed (used for forecasting yield of maize and sorghum in some countries of Southern Africa); and v) the econometric model in China that is based on policies, market prices, weather conditions and technological progress.
58. The Experts were of the opinion that non-availability of reliable historical data for the development of models and relevance and timely availability of real-time data were major difficulties in crop forecasting. Noting that some biometrical models using data on measurement of plant characteristics were very expensive to use in practice, the Experts suggested that the models should be stable over time and should be cost-effective.
59. The Experts discussed the use of remotely sensed satellite data used by many countries and agreed that the Normalized Differential Vegetative Index (NDVI), a measure of the greenness of the ground cover correlated with plant vigour, or potential yield, was a valuable indicator of crop condition, especially in areas where rainfall was a limiting factor. However, it was felt that at its present stage of development satellite imagery did not provide a satisfactory operational method for crop yield forecasting.
60. The Experts appreciated the comprehensive presentation on crop yield forecasting techniques, including crop-forecasting models and agreed that in view of the importance of crop forecasting, it was necessary to establish or improve the existing crop forecasting systems in the countries.
61. For this purpose the Experts recommended the institutionalization of crop forecasting by setting up a unit within the ministry of agriculture or the national statistical agency with the mandate to prepare and issue national and sub-national forecasts of important crops including cereals, fruits and vegetables. The Experts further recommended that all the institutions and agencies collecting data/information required for crop forecasting should be involved in the preparation of crop forecasts. Lastly, they recommended that the quality and content of data required for crop forecasting should be regularly reviewed and improved.
62. Ramasamy SELVARAJU of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) presented the paper "Impact Assessment of Agricultural Disasters: Methodological Framework and Case Studies".
63. The Experts were informed that natural disasters caused immense financial loss, human suffering and loss of life every year, and that they could have a devastating long-term impact on food production. It was noted that natural disasters could have a cumulative impact, each incident causing further loss of resilience both in the environment and in society and that agriculture and allied sectors were affected differently and with different intensities by each type of disaster. Mr Selvaraju mentioned that, in general, agriculture was more heavily affected by the growing number of disasters of hydro-meteorological origin, such as tropical cyclones, floods, frosts, and droughts and that the effects of disasters of a geological nature such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions had marginal impacts on the agriculture sector.
64. He said that one of the major difficulties in monitoring any disaster was the manner in which a quantified assessment of its impact was made. Furthermore, he stated that the effects of disasters could be classified as direct damage (those that occur during time of disasters), losses (on flow of production of goods and services) and macro economic effects such as changes in level of growth of GDP, balance of trade, monetary resources, prices/inflation, employment and income. He mentioned that a methodology for estimation of direct damages and losses was needed for complete assessment of the impact of disasters on the agriculture sector and that comprehensive documentation of these impacts (damage + losses) was necessary to support the development of a complete, efficient and effective national disaster plan.
65. The Experts recognized that existing systems of damage and loss assessment were deficient in many ways and that damage and loss estimates did not capture mid-season adjustments in response to weather. Consequently, it was noted that since crop yields were a function of many factors, there was a need to quantify loss due to specific disasters and that well-defined loss assessment methods were required for horticultural crops. While direct damages were measured in the animal sector, Mr Selvaraju said that estimation of losses due to stress and diseases was still needed and that both damage and loss assessment methodologies were required for inland fisheries. The Experts learned that drought and cyclone early warning systems should be incorporated in the assessment process and it was emphasized that the assessment process should be quick and objective.
66. The Experts were informed about a method that used early warning systems and overall climate patterns to assess the impacts of specific disasters. Climate pattern and impact calendars were prepared to support the damage and loss assessment immediately after the disaster. The methodology included a six-stage drought impact assessment and four-stage cyclone and flood impact assessment system.
67. Mr Selvaraju said that four major components had been considered for quantifying the impact of disasters in agriculture and allied sectors, including:
Damage to farmland that included land completely eroded, land with total sedimentation or deposits of materials brought down by floods, or land whose fertility was affected by soil erosion.
Damage to physical infrastructure that included irrigation and drainage facilities, storage facilities, machinery and equipment.
Loss of crops that included destruction of crops ready to be harvested, crops lost during mid-season, crops lost during a very early stage, costs of re-sowing and other extra costs of investment.
Damage and loss to stock that included loss of stored produce (stored grain, fruit etc.), loss of inputs (seeds, fertilizer, chemicals, etc.), damage due to death of animals, and production loss due to stress or diseases.
68. He said that disaster intensity, yield reduction factors and moisture sensitive growth stages had been incorporated into a simple modeling framework and impact calculation scheme and pointed out that a quick assessment of crop loss before harvest was made possible by understanding dry and wet spells of rainfall, moisture sensitive growth stages identified for various crops, drought intensity, cyclone intensity, period of exposure, flood water type and days of submergence.
69. The Experts noted that an understanding of the impact of inter-annual climate variability driven by large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena (such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) on rainfall and production were useful for assessing impacts of hydro-meteorological disasters at a regional scale, while at the farm level water balance and crop simulation models were useful tools to assess the impact of climate variability and related disasters.
70. Given the foregoing considerations, the Experts recommended that a standardized methodology for speedy assessment of the economic impact of disasters in the agriculture sector should be developed. They further recommended that capacity building activities should be undertaken at various levels in member countries to institutionalize the disaster impact assessment system and they recommended that efforts should be made to build up disaster warning systems and comprehensive databases required for economic impact assessment of disasters.
71. TANG Wenfeng, Senior Engineer, Database Division, Information Center, Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China informed the Experts of the effects of natural disasters on crop production in China. The Experts were briefed on the methodology for estimation of crop production losses, the impact of natural disasters on crop production and some current initiatives for reducing the negative effects of such impacts.
72. Ms Tang explained that China had a vast territory with abundant natural resources and varied climate types, making it highly vulnerable to frequent occurrences of manifold natural disasters. The Experts were told that the frequency of occurrence and the severity of these disasters severely affected crop production and that it was important to study how best to prevent and control negative impacts of disasters in order to safeguard state food security, to increase farmers' income and to stabilize the rural sector.
73. According to Ms Tang, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) were jointly responsible for China's agricultural natural disaster statistical work and these units obtained, compared, exchanged and evaluated data through a combination of sampling surveys and administrative reporting systems.
74. The estimation of crop production losses caused by natural disasters was the main responsibility of the Department of Crop Production, MOA. Data about natural disasters came from administrative reporting systems, surveys of key informants and a sampling survey. Data were usually reported twice a month from county level to province level, aggregated and then forwarded from province level to MOA. For big disasters, she said that the data were reported immediately, beginning at the county level, where the agriculture expert used his/her experience to estimate the losses for crops in the ground; after harvest of the crop, a sampling survey was used to determine the actual value of the losses.
75. Ms Tang said that four types of natural disasters (drought, flood, storm and freezing) were the main influences on crop production in China. She mentioned that standards were established to guide data collection and reporting. First, "area covered" meant the area in which the yield was reduced by more than 10 percent from a normal year. Second, "area effected" meant the area in which the yield was reduced by more than 30 percent from a normal year. Lastly, "area damaged" meant the area in which the yield was reduced by more than 80 percent from a normal year. Annual provincial data on these areas, by type, had been collected and compiled for a number of years. In the last five years, the total planted crop areas hit by natural disasters were as follows: The average areas "covered" reached 48 659 thousand hectares every year, while areas "effected" averaged 28 459 thousand hectares per year. The average area "damaged" was about 7 493 thousand hectares every year. The percentage of areas "effected" to areas "covered" was 58.5 percent, while the percentage of areas "damaged" to areas "effected" was 26.3 percent.
76. At present, three initiatives had been undertaken in China to prevent or reduce impacts of natural disasters on agriculture. First, depending on the nature of the disaster to hit an agricultural area, guidance was provided to the farmers in making adjustments to their farming systems or shifting to other crops. Second, biotechnology research that had been conducted was focused on improving crop anti-adversity ability. Third, a system to reduce the impact of disasters on crops had been established.
77. The Experts appreciated the system being implemented in China for mitigating the negative effects of natural disasters on crops and suggested that countries starting to set up their own systems could benefit from studying this system.
78. Mr Som led the discussion on measuring the role of agriculture, agri-food and agri-industry in the economy. It was pointed out that it might be useful to measure the economic importance of the various stages of food production and preparation in order to appropriately understand the impact of the agricultural sector on the economy. These studies would include the importance of the primary agricultural products as well as the agri-food and agri-industry.
79. The Experts noted that the methodology for this measurement involved: (i) applying input-output tables for the food processing sector; (ii) identifying the related sectors by applying industrial classification; and (iii) compiling for each of these industries the required indicators, including the value added, the employment, the number of enterprises, and the turnover.
80. It was reported that, in the United States of America in 1999, "farming" accounted for 0.7 percent of the GDP but the total food and fiber system accounted for 12.30 percent of GDP, while the shares of employment were 1.4 percent and 16.7 percent respectively. In 2002, Canadian agriculture represented 1 percent of GDP while the agriculture and agri-food sector represented 8 percent of Canada's GDP.
81. The Experts recognized the importance of expanding the measurement of the importance of agriculture in the national economy to include also the agri-food and agri-industry. They recommended that countries make efforts to: i) analyse the importance of their agro-industry in the national economy to help better reflect the role of the agriculture sector; and ii) compile relevant indicators.
82. Indrasari WARDHANA, Head, Export Sub-Division, Trade Research and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade, Indonesia explained that trade flow data could affect agricultural policies, especially for exported or imported commodities. In cases when the production data were missing or incomplete, he said that it was necessary to make policy decisions in the agricultural sector using estimates of the export and/or import data. He noted that conditions/relationships of trade flow data such as knowing the characteristics/behaviour of the commodity, the region that produced the commodity and the use of the commodity could be used to estimate agricultural production. However, he said that it was generally necessary to conduct surveys in order to know the appropriate model and to include the important factors. He illustrated the procedures used in the Ministry of Trade to estimate the production of rattan.
83. On the other hand, Mr Wardhana pointed out that to make decisions in trade policy related to the agricultural sector (such as distribution of fertilizer and main crop commodities, price stabilization, and food availability), agricultural statistics data such as total production, cost of production, harvest period, number of farmers and consumption would be needed and that in order to make suitable trade policies related to agricultural commodities, it was important to have reliable agricultural statistics.
84. Mr Baker demonstrated the FAO statistical software developed for analysis of trade flows for agricultural commodities. By linking to the Statistics Division home page on the FAO web site, www.fao.org, he showed, e.g. the destinations of exports of rice paddy from Thailand in terms of quantity and value. He said that this software, WATF (World Agricultural Trade Flows), was interactive, but could be downloaded for use on individual computers. In addition, WATM (World Agricultural Trade Matrices) could be used for breaking down the flow of individual commodity imports/exports between countries.
85. The Experts agreed that the procedures used in the estimation of the production of rattan in Indonesia would be helpful in estimating production of other crops and suggested that it would be useful to have documentation outlining the methodology.
86. Napaporn GIRAPUNTHONG, FAO consultant, explained that most agricultural commodities were seasonal crops with price movements that depended on the influences of supply and demand conditions such as changing consumer preferences, technology, government policy, climactic conditions and other factors. Consequently, she said, the use of seasonal price indexes was useful to farmers, policy-makers, and agribusiness entrepreneurs for managing agricultural price risks, developing a marketing strategy, projecting an estimated monthly price and making agricultural price policy decisions.
87. After noting that the price trend generally also influenced seasonal patterns and that a strong trend in the dataset could provide misleading information in the seasonal price index, she mentioned that the link relative method was often used to calculate the seasonal price index because it could remove price trends from the dataset. She illustrated the method for rice and rubber in Thailand and explained that the elimination of outlier data (either for a month of for an entire year) had minimal impact on the indices.
88. Assuming normal market conditions, she said that the future price can be estimated by using the seasonal price index to explore a number of marketing plans such as a decision on crop production or establishment of marketing prices. She provided examples illustrating how future price estimates were calculated by multiplying the current monthly price by the ratio of the price index of future months to the price index of the current month.
89. The Experts considered the use and analysis of time series data in making important decisions to be quite helpful and recognized that the link relative method for forecasting future prices was a simple, but valuable tool to use. However, the importance of using more than one variable/commodity in the decision-making process was emphasized.
