Cover
Rapid growth of selected Asian economies
Lessons and implications for agriculture and food security
China and India

REGIONAL OFFICE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
Bangkok, © FAO 2006

Contents


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ISBN 92-5-105508-4
ISSN 1819-4591

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Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgements

PART I:
China's rapid economic growth and its implications for agriculture and food security in China and the rest of the world

Abbreviations and acronyms

Executive summary

1.   Introduction

2.   Retrospective of China's economy and agricultural and rural development

2.1   Overall economic growth

2.2   Structural changes in China's economy

2.2.1   Overall change in economic structure

2.2.2   Demographic changes

2.2.3   More open economy

2.3   Agricultural and rural development

2.3.1   Agricultural production growth

2.3.2   Structural changes in agricultural production.

2.3.3   Sources of production growth

2.3.4   Agricultural trade performance

2.3.5   Food security

2.3.6   Off-farm employment

2.3.7   The impacts of economic and agricultural growth on poverty

2.3.8   The main challenges for China's agricultural and rural development.

3.   Prospects for China's economic growth in the future

3.1   National development plan

3.2   Driving force prospective for economic growth

3.3   Economic growth prospects

4.   China's agriculture, food economy and sustainable economic growth

4.1   Major results from the baseline scenario

4.2   Major results from China's high GDP growth scenario

4.3   The impact of China's higher TFP growth.

5.   Implications of China's rapid economic growth for the rest of the world

5.1   Major results from the baseline analysis

5.2   The implications of China's high economic growth

5.3   Implications of China's higher TFP growth

6.   Concluding remarks

Appendices: Methodology, data and assumptions

A1.   The Global Trade Analysis Project

A2.   Data improvements

A3.   Assumptions under different scenarios

A3.1   The baseline scenario

A3.2   China's high GDP growth scenario

A3.3   China's higher TFP growth

Appendix figures

1.   Net export of agriculture as percentage of world trade under the baseline, 2001–2020

2.   Net export of agriculture as percentage of world output under the baseline, 2001–2020

Appendix tables

1.   Rural poverty in China, 1978–2004

2.   Regional aggregations

3.   Sector aggregation

4.   The adjusted own-price and income elasticities for China

5.   Comparison of I-O parameters (%) in the original GTAP and adjusted ones

6.   The assumptions on annual growths (%) of China's factor endowment and capital stock under the baseline in 2002–2005

7.   Summary of import and export tariff equivalent in China, 2001–2020

8.   The national import and export share of different commodities in different regions in 2001

Bibliography

Tables

1.     The annual growth rates (%) of China's economy, 1970–2004

2.     Changes in structure (%) of China's economy, 1970–2004

3.     The annual growth rates (%) of the agricultural economy, 1970–2004

4.     Changes in structure (%) of China's agricultural economy, 1970–2004

5.     Shares of crop-sown areas, 1970–2004

6.     Structure of China's food and feed trade, 1980–2002

7.     Per capita supply and sources of calories, protein and fat per day in China, 1961–2000

8.     Projection of China's economy, 2001–2020

9.     Previous projections of China's GDP growth in China in the early 21st century

10.   Self-sufficiency level (%) in different scenarios in 2020

11.   China's trade shares (%) in the world in 2020

12.   Agriculture and food trade in other countries/regions with China, 2001–2020

13.   Net export of energy, mineral, textile and apparel, manufactory and services to China

14.   Percentage output changes in different regions in 2020 due to China's higher economic growth (compared to baseline)

15.   Welfare change in different regions in 2020 due to China's higher economic growth (compared to baseline)

16.   The world price change in 2020 (compared to baseline) (%)

Boxes

1.   Land law in China

2.   Agricultural productivity and technology in China

3.   Rural enterprise development in China

Figures

1.     Poverty incidence (%) in rural China, 1978–2004

2.     Annual growth rate (%) of GDP, 1979–2004

3.     Inward FDI in China (US$ billion), 1979–2004

4.     Agricultural trade balance by land-intensive and labour-intensive products

5.     Level of participation in farming and non-farming activities, 1980–2000

6.     China's GDP share (%) in the world, 2001–2020.

7.     Self-sufficiency level (%) of agriculture under baseline, 2001–2020

8.     Agriculture and food trade under baseline, 2001–2020

9.     Self-sufficiency rates of non-agricultural sectors in China, 2001–2020

10.   Net exports of non-agricultural sectors in China, 2001–2020

11.   China's net export change: high growth scenario compared to the baseline in 2020

12.   Net export of food and natural resource products under high growth and high TFP scenarios in China in 2020

13.   Percentages of China's net export in world total production under high GDP growth and high technology scenarios in 2020

14.   Annual growth rates (%) of GDP in China, 1981–2020

PART II:
Indian agriculture and scenario for 2020

Abbreviations and acronyms

Executive summary

1.   Background

2.   Economy and agricultural economy: growth and deceleration

2.1   Growth

2.2   Poverty

2.3   Unemployment

2.4   Broad sectoral trends.

2.5   Trends in the agriculture sector

2.5.1   Phase 1

2.5.2   Phase 2

2.5.3   Phase 3 and the agricultural anomaly

2.6   The reason for deceleration

3.   Future expectations

3.1   Overview

3.2   Population

3.3   Incomes and expenditures

3.4   The changing food basket

3.5   Consumption of agricultural products

3.6   Production of agricultural commodities

3.7   Price competitiveness.

3.8   Production, consumption and surpluses

3.9   Expectations for India

4.   The agenda for reform

4.1   Land

4.2   Water.

4.3   Credit

4.4   Markets

4.5   Diversification

4.5.1   Fisheries

4.5.2   Agroforestry

4.6   Technology development and access.

4.6.1   Development

4.6.2   Access

4.7   Taxation

5.   Current efforts for agricultural and rural development

5.1   The current agenda

5.2   Constraints

5.3   The private sector

6.   International trade: multilateral, bilateral trade and potential impact

6.1   Multilateral issues

6.2   South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and agriculture

6.3   India's trade in agricultural commodities and potential impact

7.   Summary and conclusion

Appendices

Appendix 1   Tables and figures

Appendix 2   Methodology, data and assumptions

Appendix 3   India and international trade of agricultural commodities

Bibliography

Notes

Tables

1.     Incidence of poverty

2.     Growth rates in area, production and productivity of crop groups (annual percentage change).

3.     Distribution of landholdings (% of total holdings and total area)

4.     Compounded annual rates of growth of production and yield

5.     Per capita consumption

6.     Gross capital formation in agriculture at 1993–1994 prices

7.     Growth of macroeconomic variables

8.     Income elasticities across quintiles

9.     Sensitivity to prices — own price elasticities

10.   Consumption estimates (million tonnes/year)

11.   Growth in consumption

12.   Assumptions: the growth rate of exogenous variables of India in four stages (per year %)

13.   Likely production and consumption in 2020

14.   Net export share of world export in value terms (%)

15.   Number of regulated markets

16.   Progress in amending APMC Acts (as of January 2006)

17.   India's exports of agricultural products, 2003–2004 (US$ millions)

18.   Net export share of world export (%)

Boxes

1.   Operation Flood

2.   Kisan credit card.

3.   ITC e-Choupal

4.   Digital Mandi,

5.   NDDB initiative — efficient terminal markets for horticultural produce

6.   Biofuel — an alternative approach to wasteland management

Figures

1.     Trends in sectoral output — net domestic product

2.     Population 2001–2015 (figures in '000s).

3.     Poverty levels

4.     Trend in yield of major crops

5a.   Export/import earnings for selected agricultural commodities

5b.   Export/import earnings for selected agricultural commodities