Surveillance of Avian Influenza in Mixed
Farming System and in Live Bird
Markets in Bali

Anak Agung Gde Putra and Ketut Santhia
Disease Investigation Centre, Region VI Denpasar

· ERADICATION STRATEGY OF HPAI IN BALI

Public Awareness

- Improved rural participation
- Public health concern
- Veterinary Public Health

Table 1
Geographical distribution of avian influenza (H5N1) in Bali

Geographical Distribution

Table 2
Number of birds at high risk during the outbreak of HPAI (H5N1) in Bali, between October 2003 and March 2004

Table 3
The mortality rate of HPAI (H5N1) infection in 80 infected villages (flocks)

Table 5
Susceptibility of various birds species to HPAI (H5N1) infection

Table 6
Investigation of avian influenza virus in two pig farms in Denpasar in April 2005

Table 7
Number of birds vaccinated in the Province of Bali in 2004

Table 8
Prevalence of avian Influenza (H5N1) at traditional live bird markets in Bali in August 2005

Table 9
Investigation of avian Influenza (H5N1) that contaminated bird cages and drinking water at traditional live bird markets in Bali in August 2005

Benefits and Costs of Reducing Risks in
Wet Markets

Marikina City Wet Market Case Study

By
Carolyn C. Benigno
with acknowledgement to
Imelda J. Santos, DVM
Ramonito D. Viliran, M.D.
Marikina City

Outline of the Change Process

• FAO/OIE/WHO Consultation meeting

• Wet Market Operations

• Feedback

• Conclusions

Background

• FAO/OIE/WHO Consultation on Avian Influenza and Human Health: Risk Reduction Measures in Producing, Marketing and Living with Animals in Asia, 3-5 July 2005, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Recommendation:

• National, provincial and local authorities should consider the appropriateness of the healthy settings approach and of other approaches in efforts to reduce the risks to human health associated with the wet markets of Asia.

Healthy Markets

Emphasis on:

• describing the marketplace

• identifying high-risk areas and practices in the market place

• identifying the members of the market community

Healthy Markets

Emphasis on:

• Engaging champions and drawing up a prioritized list of possible changes to fit the local situation

• Exploring various possible sources of finance; engaging the interest of politicians and local government

• Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact and start with these

State of Marikina City Market

• Total chaos

• Sidewalk vendors, hawkers

• Mixed selling of goods

• Unsanitary

Identifying the members of the market community

• Vision: To make Marikina Public Market as the best, modern, well-managed trading center with high standard of service nationwide

  Mission: To provide consumers and vendors best quality of service focusing on cleanliness, security, discipline and orderliness

Engaging champions and drawing up a prioritized list of possible changes to fit the local situation

• Change agent - Local Chief Executive

Organizational Chart

Exploring various possible sources of finance; engaging the interest of politicians and local government

• 1993 - requested funds from Department of Finance

• Improved, rebuilt the market, completed by 1995

• Cost of USD 1.3 M

• Land area of 9,219 square meters

Operational Cost (USD)

Market Income (USD)

Sources of Income

• Stall Rentals

• Fixed Stall Penalties

• Weights and Measures

• Weights and Measures Penalties

• Market I.D.

• Market/meat certificate

• Meat inspection fees

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

• Divided into a market zone and outside a market zone

• Market zone - dry goods section and wet section

• Outside market zone - flea market stalls

• Wet section - fish, meat, chicken section, processed products, offals sections

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

• No slaughtering of chickens and other animals

• Contracted a dressing plant within the city to slaughter the chickens

• Sources its meat supply from neighboring municipalities

Changes

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

• Operations

  24 hrs operational
  Flushing operation - 3x a week
  Garbage collection - every 2-3 hrs.
  Insecticide spraying - 2x a month
  Weights monitoring - once a week

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

• Services offered

  Public address system
  Weighing Center
  Consumer net & consumer welfare desk
  Police community precinct
  Comparative Monitoring Borad
  Healthy Market Bulletin
  Porter services
  People’s covered walk
  Clean Food Laboratory
  Public toilets
  Water pipe system

Ordinances Enforced

• Selling of "hot meat"

• Injection of water and coloring meat

• Weights and measures

• Garbage Disposal

• Dress Code

• Market ID cards for vendors

Violations come with fines and confiscation of equipment, revocation of business permit

Feedback from Stall owners

Earnings per day - USD 10/day net or 300/month
Stall rental -39/month

All stalls are always rented, no vacant stall at any one time.

Award(s)

• October 2004

  City of Marikina - awarded as one of the Healthiest Cities in Asia by the World Health Organization

  " for its promotion of healthy diet through urban planning..."

Conclusions on improving wet markets

• Makes good economic sense for the locality

• Sustains/improves the income of small entrepreneurs

• Needs a champion to educate the public

• Discipline thru public education

• Consistent implementation of local ordinances

• Packaging the B/C analysis and IRR for other cities to appreciate and implement a healthy market approach

Approaches Approaches to Costing and Budgeting for Compensation in Avian Influenza

29th APHCA Session
Bali, Indonesia

September 26-29, 2005

David Hall, FAO Consultant
davidhallfao@yahoo.com

29th APHCA SESSION, BALI, Sept 26-29 2005
Avian Influenza Economic Assessment Workshop

Outline

• Background

• Who is compensating

• Compensation program costing

• Scenario analysis

Part I:

General comments,

Country examples

Cycle of disease concerns

Rising demand, rising concerns

• Rising demand ® changes in trade

• consumer concerns for food safety

  • zoonotic disease - Nipah virus, HPAI in Asia

• higher prevalence of animal disease outbreaks:

  • high economic costs, market disruptions
  • price volatility
  • barriers to trade

  • increased trans-boundary risks

Disease outbreaks are expensive

HPAI has heavy economic impact

• Livelihoods

  • impactts small & medium scalle producers mostt,, large scale producers (with high biosecurity) least

  • 200+ million birds died or destroyed

• Trade

  • Billions of dollars in trade affected

• Control

  • emergency response, containment, prevention, restocking

Why compensate? (Benefits)

• Protect human health

  • part of a larger HPAI control program

• Protect animal health

  • encourage reporting,, reduce diisease spread

• Maintain livelihoods

  • help vulnerable producers over shocks

  • indirectly support input/output flow

• Sustain trade

  • Local and international markets

Drawbacks (cons)

• High non-sustainable cost

  • how to pay sudden unexpected compensation

  • questions of equitability; who benefits

• Administration

  • how to verify - moral hazard issue

  • federal vs. provincial

• Economic impact on other markets

  • fish, beef, pork markets may be affected

• Maintains virus entry points to prdn chain

  • keeping low bio-secure farms in business

Only part of the plan

· Part of a control program

• stamping out
• eradication of flocks
• +/- vaccination

• compartmentalization

· Part of a social program

• recovery
• restructuring

• shift to alternatives

HPAI Compensation Programs*

* (not a complete list) Government compensattion progrrams fforr HPAI; note that many private sector contractors compensate

HPAI Compensation Programs

Thailand

• c. USD 133 Mil, 410,000 farmers, 61Mil birds
• Thailand = 75% market value normally
• cabinet special approval for 100% in first outbreak
• Primarily small and medium farms

• Specialty compensation (native, quail, etc.)

Lao PDR

• Lao PDR government - has drawn up compensation plans but not yet available

• details unknown

Compensation - Indonesia

Indonesia

• Smallholders with layers < 10,000 and broilers < 15,000 per cycle or >= 50 native chickens or ducks, >= 500 quail
• 1st phase: USD 400,000 - 1068 farmers, 15 districts, 8 prov.
• 2nd phase: USD 500,000 - 1756 farmers, 14 districts, 4 prov.
• Two credit schemes available

• surveyed farmers expressed need for more funds

From Bahri and Supriatna, yesterday’s presentation:

• Java compensation greater now than last year

• Production value (not compensation) is:

  • USD 1.18 Mil (IDR15,000 per commercial broilers, layers, etc)

  • USD 448,000 (IDR20,000 per locall chicken,, ducks, etc)

Compensation - Indonesia

Simmons; Bali, 2005

• 272 households

• broilers and layers

• 90% owned farms

• 6% layer farms received govt. compensation

Compensation - Vietnam

VIETNAM - Dolberg, Feb 2005

• little compensation implemented and almost none for small holders (57% of the birds culled)

• larger farms appeared to receive "fairer treatment"

• even for larger farms, compensation amounted to 18% of market value

• costs of total losses

  • USD 200 Mil, of which 13.2 for compensation

Compensation - Vietnam update

VIETNAM - Govt. of Vietnam, Sept 2005

• Central Govt. released USD 19Mil for HPAI control

• equivalent amount from local governments

• total USD 38Mil

• "A large part of these budgets was used to compensate for farmers who had their poultry died or culled during the epidemics"

Compensation - Dolberg, 2004

• farmers surveyed in Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam

• Only 10-20% of value of birds covered (Govt. estimates)

All but Thailand:

• farmers prefer soft credit and vet services

• compensation ranked 4th or 5th over other options (better veterinary services, credit, etc.)

My conclusions:

1) low levels of compensation neither valued nor effective
2) focus program funds on high compensation for worst off

• Poultry in sector 2, 3

• Source of protein in sector 4

Compensation program recommendations

• Targeting

  • Be realistic

    • not everyone will benefit

    • budget expectations

  • Aim for >75% of market price

  • Work with private sector

• Time horizon

• Short term vs. longer term

• Recovery of local vs. international markets

• A temporary instrument

• A response to a crisis situation

• Part of a larger plan

Part II:

Costs and Budgeting

Compensation - what to consider

• Who benefits

  • Identification, verification

• Cost elements

  • Cash costs, debt servicing, administration, etc.

• Implementation (nature of program)

  • Cash transfer
  • Soft loan (interest free)
  • In-kind transfer to producers

  • Alternative livelihood training and relocation

Compensation - eligibility

• Profile of recipients

  • Scale of production

    • All producers or just most vulnerable

    • Moral questions as well as economic

  • Contract growers may be serviced by contractor

    • Buy out clause

• Valuation

  • Market value (pre-crisis prices)
  • Birds, loss of production, secondary products

  • Exceptional cases (fighting cocks, fancy breeds, etc.)

• Identification and verification

  • Avoid paying false claims (moral hazard)

    • Spot checks, production records (feed bills, etc)

  • Videotape, other documentation

Compensation - costs

• Producer compensation

  • Birds
  • Lost production

  • Lost secondary markets

• Administration

  • Accounting, distribution, records

  • Identification and verification

• Loan servicing costs

• Education and awareness

  • Advertising, restructuring

  • Policy options

Scenario analysis

• Why do a scenario analysis

  • Program planning requires thinking!!
  • Examining options for preparedness

  • An instrument for lobbying

    • government, donors, lenders

  · Inputs

  • Data

    • Often best estimates

    • Results highly sensitive to data

  • Epidemiologic linkages

  · Outputs

  • Range of options, range of costs, variables of most impact

  • Instrument for planning and lobbying

Scenario analysis

• Assumptions

  • Broiler farms, sectors 3 & 4
  • Typical farm has 150 birds
  • Average market price per bird = $1.00
  • 8-10 weeks per cycle

  • Administration = 1% market cost

• Three scenarios

  • Mild outbreak - minimal losses
  • Moderate outbreak

  • Severe epidemic - devastating losses

Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis - uncertainty

Scenario analysis - all outcomes

Scenario analysis - mild outbreak result

Scenario analysis - all outcomes

Sensitivity analysis:

• Price uncertainty

  • more impact in the mild scenario

• Lost cycles

  • more impact in moderate & severe scenarios

Policy implications:

e.g. considering restructuring vs. price supports
If expect a moderate outbreak, better to address restructuring/alternate livelihoods

Budgeting

Cash reserves:

• Emergency fund

• Requires law/cabinet order

National/Regional banks:

Loans, restructuring plans
Not NGOs, donor community

"Check off" program:

Pooled reserves
e.g. ¼-1% market value of product collected at sale birds, feed and housing sales, vaccine sales encourage sector 1 participation

• reducing overall risk improves profit expectation

Further questions

• Socially optimal solutions

  • Minimizing costs (an appropriate question?)

  • Targeting recipients

• Financing

  • Most efficient timing of program

  • Collection of funding source

• Impact

  • On other sectors (fish, beef, pork)

  • Household nutrition

Thank you!