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Surveillance of avian influenza in mixed farming system and in live bird markets in Bali
Presented by Anak Agung Gde Putra and Ketut Santhia
(Disease Investigation Centre, Region VI, Denpasar, Indonesia)

Slide 1

Surveillance of Avian Influenza in Mixed
Farming System and in Live Bird
Markets in Bali

Anak Agung Gde Putra and Ketut Santhia
Disease Investigation Centre, Region VI Denpasar

Slide 2

· ERADICATION STRATEGY OF HPAI IN BALI

Public Awareness

- Improved rural participation
- Public health concern
- Veterinary Public Health

Slide 3

Table 1
Geographical distribution of avian influenza (H5N1) in Bali

District

Sub-district

Village (Flock)

Total

Affected

%

Total

Affected

%

Denpasar

3

2

66.6

43

2

4.7

Badung

6

2

33.3

61

2

3.3

Gianyar

7

4

57.1

69

8

11.6

Klungkung

4

3

75.0

59

9

15.3

Bangli

4

4

100.0

69

27

39.1

Karangasem

8

2

25.0

71

6

8.5

Buleleng

9

2

22.2

146

2

1.4

Jembrana

4

4

100.0

57

15

29.4

Tabanan

10

4

40.0

117

9

7.7

Total:

55

27

47.3

686

80

11.7

Slide 4

Geographical Distribution

Slide 5

Table 2
Number of birds at high risk during the outbreak of HPAI (H5N1) in Bali, between October 2003 and March 2004

District

Population in
each District

Birds
at high risk

Proportion
(%)

Denpasar

94,069

10,600

11.3

Badung

774,914

15,688

2.0

Gianyar

1,127,814

187,105

16.2

Klungkung

992,895

192,543

20.9

Bangli

1,982,649

1,778,136

89.7

Karangasem

1,461,488

518,750

35.5

Buleleng

1,009,409

1,625

0.2

Jembrana

1,381,488

521,283

37.7

Tabanan

3,282,597

1,355,284

41.9

Total:

12,037,323

4,581,104

38.0

Slide 6

Table 3
The mortality rate of HPAI (H5N1) infection in 80 infected villages (flocks)

District

Population at risk

Bird deaths

Mortality Rate
(%)

Denpasar

10,600

162

1.5

Badung

15,688

3,000

19.1

Gianyar

187,105

8,424

4.5

Klungkung

192,543

23,122

12.0

Bangli

1,778,136

78,365

4.4

Karangasem

518,750

158,850

30.2

Buleleng

1,625

100

6.2

Jembrana

521,283

11,836

2.3

Tabanan

1,355,284

656,285

48.4

Total:

4,581,104

938,144

20.5

Slide 7

Year/Month

Number of new
cases

Number of
Susceptible
birds

Attack rates
(%)

Before Vaccination Program 2003

August

0


0.0

September

0


0.0

October

4,200

1,347,364

0.3

November

113,300

1,234,064

9.2

December

89,916

1,144,148

7.9

January’ 2004

219.879

5,031,892

4.4

February

493.946

4,812,013

10.3

March

12,688

4,322,067

0.3

Slide 8

Year/Month

Number of new
cases

Number of
Susceptible
birds

Attack rates
(%)

After vaccination Program 2004

April

0


0.0

May

0


0.0

June

0


0.0

July

10

1,177,220

0.0008

August

0


0.0

September

2

118,812

0.002

October

1

15,208

0.007

November

0


0.0

December

0


0.0

Slide 9

Year/Month

Number of new
cases

Number of
susceptible
birds

Attack rates
(%)

2005

January

0


0.0

February

2

64,504

0.003

March

0


0.0

April

0


0.0

May

0


0.0

June

0


0.0

July

1

2,440

0.04

August

1

997

0.1

Slide 10

Table 5
Susceptibility of various birds species to HPAI (H5N1) infection

Species

Number of birds

Number of death

Mortality rates
(%)

Layer

2,619,083

855,340

32.7

Kampong chicken

4,042,339

4,341

0.1

Broiler

4,346,002

42,804

1.0

Bangkok chicken

50

15

30.0

Farmed duck

974,160

35,502

3.6

Muscopy duck

42

36

25.7

Goose

1,352

0

0.0

Turkey

538

0

0.0

Quail

10,358

4,000

38.6

Pigeon

76,071

6

7.9

Peaceful dove

?

1

?

Total:

12,099,954

942,009

7.8

Slide 11

Table 6
Investigation of avian influenza virus in two pig farms in Denpasar in April 2005

Farm

District

Population

Number of
specimens

Laboratory Result

1

Denpasar

50

10 nose
swabs

Negative avian influenza

2

Denpasar

50

10 nose
swabs

Negative avian influenza



100

20


Slide 12

Table 7
Number of birds vaccinated in the Province of Bali in 2004

District

Population in
Each District

Number of vaccine

Proportion
(%)

Denpasar

94,069

100,000

106.4

Badung

774,914

660,000

77.4

Gianyar

1,127,814

980,000

87.5

Klungkung

992,895

892.500

89.9

Bangli

1,982,649

1.086.000

54.7

Karangasem

1,461,488

1,040,000

71.2

Buleleng

1,009,409

150,000

14.9

Jembrana

1,381,488

610,000

44.2

Tabanan

3,282,597

2,940,000

89.6

Total:

12,037,323

8,658,500

72.0

Slide 13

Table 8
Prevalence of avian Influenza (H5N1) at traditional live bird markets in Bali in August 2005

District

Traditional
Market

Species of bird

Number of
samples
examined

Positive
H5N1 virus

Positive
H5N1
antibody

Denpasar

Sanglah

Kampong chicken

10

0

2



Broiler

10

0

3

Badung

Badung

Layer

5

0

5



Duck

5

0

2


Kumbasari

Kampong chicken

5

0

4



Broiler

5

0

2

Tabanan

Dauh Pala

Kampong chicken

10

0

4



Broiler

10

0

3

Karang asem

Seraya

Kampong chicken

10

0

7



Broiler

3

0

3



Layer

5

0

5



Duck

2

0

0



Muscopy

1

0

0

Buleleng

Seririt

Kampong chicken

5

1

4



Layer

5

0

4


Anyar

Broiler

5

0

2



Duck

5

1

1

Total:

101

2

52

Slide 14

Table 9
Investigation of avian Influenza (H5N1) that contaminated bird cages and drinking water at traditional live bird markets in Bali in August 2005

District

Traditional
Market

Number of swab
samples taken
from bird cages

Positive
H5N1
virus

Number of swab
samples taken from
drinking water

Positive
H5N1
virus

Denpasar

Sanglah

2

0



Badung

Badung

2

0



Kumbasari

2

0



Tabanan

Dauh Pala

2

0



Karang asem

Seraya

7

0

8

0

Buleleng

Seririt

2

0

2

0

Anyar

2

0

2

0

Total:

19

0

12

0

Benefits and costs of reducing risks in wet markets - Marikina city wet market case study
Presented by Carolyn Benigno (Animal Health Officer, FAO/RAP)

Slide 1

Benefits and Costs of Reducing Risks in
Wet Markets

Marikina City Wet Market Case Study

By
Carolyn C. Benigno
with acknowledgement to
Imelda J. Santos, DVM
Ramonito D. Viliran, M.D.
Marikina City

Slide 2

Outline of the Change Process

  • FAO/OIE/WHO Consultation meeting

  • Wet Market Operations

  • Feedback

  • Conclusions

Slide 3

Background

  • FAO/OIE/WHO Consultation on Avian Influenza and Human Health: Risk Reduction Measures in Producing, Marketing and Living with Animals in Asia, 3-5 July 2005, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Recommendation:

  • National, provincial and local authorities should consider the appropriateness of the healthy settings approach and of other approaches in efforts to reduce the risks to human health associated with the wet markets of Asia.

Slide 4

Healthy Markets

Emphasis on:

  • describing the marketplace

  • identifying high-risk areas and practices in the market place

  • identifying the members of the market community

Slide 5

Healthy Markets

Emphasis on:

  • Engaging champions and drawing up a prioritized list of possible changes to fit the local situation

  • Exploring various possible sources of finance; engaging the interest of politicians and local government

  • Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact and start with these

Slide 6

State of Marikina City Market

  • Total chaos

  • Sidewalk vendors, hawkers

  • Mixed selling of goods

  • Unsanitary

Slide 7

Identifying the members of the market community

  • Vision: To make Marikina Public Market as the best, modern, well-managed trading center with high standard of service nationwide

    Mission: To provide consumers and vendors best quality of service focusing on cleanliness, security, discipline and orderliness

Slide 8

Engaging champions and drawing up a prioritized list of possible changes to fit the local situation

  • Change agent - Local Chief Executive

Slide 9

Organizational Chart

Slide 10

Exploring various possible sources of finance; engaging the interest of politicians and local government

  • 1993 - requested funds from Department of Finance

  • Improved, rebuilt the market, completed by 1995

  • Cost of USD 1.3 M

  • Land area of 9,219 square meters

Slide 11

Operational Cost (USD)


2004

2005

2006

Personnel

98,314

98,314

112,914

MOE

8,272

29,454

26,174

Capital outlay

1,818

764

163,680

Total

108,404

128,532

302,768

Slide 12

Market Income (USD)


Total Income

from Meat

Chicken

1998

462,977



1999

475,948



2000

505,369



2001

362,464



2002

408,856



2003

443,865



2004

465,972

54,283

32,574

Slide 13

Sources of Income

  • Stall Rentals

  • Fixed Stall Penalties

  • Weights and Measures

  • Weights and Measures Penalties

  • Market I.D.

  • Market/meat certificate

  • Meat inspection fees

Slide 14

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

  • Divided into a market zone and outside a market zone

  • Market zone - dry goods section and wet section

  • Outside market zone - flea market stalls

  • Wet section - fish, meat, chicken section, processed products, offals sections

Slide 15

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

  • No slaughtering of chickens and other animals

  • Contracted a dressing plant within the city to slaughter the chickens

  • Sources its meat supply from neighboring municipalities

Slide 16

Changes

  • Market Personnel -

45


Market enforcer -

17


Meat Inspectors -

7


Office staff -

4


Market Cleaner

12


Maintenance Crew -

5

Slide 17

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

  • Operations

    24 hrs operational
    Flushing operation - 3x a week
    Garbage collection - every 2-3 hrs.
    Insecticide spraying - 2x a month
    Weights monitoring - once a week

Slide 18

Identifying changes that may be relatively simple and likely to show positive impact

  • Services offered

    Public address system
    Weighing Center
    Consumer net & consumer welfare desk
    Police community precinct
    Comparative Monitoring Borad
    Healthy Market Bulletin
    Porter services
    People’s covered walk
    Clean Food Laboratory
    Public toilets
    Water pipe system

Slide 19

Ordinances Enforced

  • Selling of "hot meat"

  • Injection of water and coloring meat

  • Weights and measures

  • Garbage Disposal

  • Dress Code

  • Market ID cards for vendors

Violations come with fines and confiscation of equipment, revocation of business permit

Slide 20

Feedback from Stall owners

Earnings per day - USD 10/day net or 300/month
Stall rental -39/month

All stalls are always rented, no vacant stall at any one time.

Slide 21

Award(s)

  • October 2004

    City of Marikina - awarded as one of the Healthiest Cities in Asia by the World Health Organization

    " for its promotion of healthy diet through urban planning..."

Slide 22

Conclusions on improving wet markets

  • Makes good economic sense for the locality

  • Sustains/improves the income of small entrepreneurs

  • Needs a champion to educate the public

  • Discipline thru public education

  • Consistent implementation of local ordinances

  • Packaging the B/C analysis and IRR for other cities to appreciate and implement a healthy market approach

Approaches to costing and budgeting for compensation in avian influenza
Presented by David Hall (FAO Consultant)

Slide 1

Approaches Approaches to Costing and Budgeting for Compensation in Avian Influenza

29th APHCA Session
Bali, Indonesia

September 26-29, 2005

David Hall, FAO Consultant
davidhallfao@yahoo.com

29th APHCA SESSION, BALI, Sept 26-29 2005
Avian Influenza Economic Assessment Workshop

Slide 2

Outline

  • Background

  • Who is compensating

  • Compensation program costing

  • Scenario analysis

Slide 3

Part I:

General comments,

Country examples

Slide 4

Cycle of disease concerns

Slide 5

Rising demand, rising concerns

  • Rising demand ® changes in trade

  • consumer concerns for food safety

    • zoonotic disease - Nipah virus, HPAI in Asia

  • higher prevalence of animal disease outbreaks:

    • high economic costs, market disruptions
    • price volatility
    • barriers to trade
    • increased trans-boundary risks

Slide 6

Disease outbreaks are expensive

Slide 7

HPAI has heavy economic impact

  • Livelihoods

    • impactts small & medium scalle producers mostt,, large scale producers (with high biosecurity) least
    • 200+ million birds died or destroyed

  • Trade

    • Billions of dollars in trade affected

  • Control

    • emergency response, containment, prevention, restocking

Slide 8

Why compensate? (Benefits)

  • Protect human health

    • part of a larger HPAI control program

  • Protect animal health

    • encourage reporting,, reduce diisease spread

  • Maintain livelihoods

    • help vulnerable producers over shocks
    • indirectly support input/output flow

  • Sustain trade

    • Local and international markets

Slide 9

Drawbacks (cons)

  • High non-sustainable cost

    • how to pay sudden unexpected compensation
    • questions of equitability; who benefits

  • Administration

    • how to verify - moral hazard issue
    • federal vs. provincial

  • Economic impact on other markets

    • fish, beef, pork markets may be affected

  • Maintains virus entry points to prdn chain

    • keeping low bio-secure farms in business

Slide 10

Only part of the plan

· Part of a control program

  • stamping out
  • eradication of flocks
  • +/- vaccination
  • compartmentalization

· Part of a social program

  • recovery
  • restructuring
  • shift to alternatives

Slide 11

HPAI Compensation Programs*

Compensation

No compensation

China/Hong Kong SAR


Indonesia

Cambodia

Thailand

Lao PDR

Vietnam


* (not a complete list) Government compensattion progrrams fforr HPAI; note that many private sector contractors compensate

Slide 12

HPAI Compensation Programs

Thailand

  • c. USD 133 Mil, 410,000 farmers, 61Mil birds
  • Thailand = 75% market value normally
  • cabinet special approval for 100% in first outbreak
  • Primarily small and medium farms
  • Specialty compensation (native, quail, etc.)

Lao PDR

  • Lao PDR government - has drawn up compensation plans but not yet available
  • details unknown

Slide 13

Compensation - Indonesia

Indonesia

  • Smallholders with layers < 10,000 and broilers < 15,000 per cycle or >= 50 native chickens or ducks, >= 500 quail
  • 1st phase: USD 400,000 - 1068 farmers, 15 districts, 8 prov.
  • 2nd phase: USD 500,000 - 1756 farmers, 14 districts, 4 prov.
  • Two credit schemes available
  • surveyed farmers expressed need for more funds

From Bahri and Supriatna, yesterday’s presentation:

  • Java compensation greater now than last year
  • Production value (not compensation) is:

    • USD 1.18 Mil (IDR15,000 per commercial broilers, layers, etc)
    • USD 448,000 (IDR20,000 per locall chicken,, ducks, etc)

Slide 14

Compensation - Indonesia

Simmons; Bali, 2005

  • 272 households

  • broilers and layers

  • 90% owned farms

  • 6% layer farms received govt. compensation

Slide 15

Compensation - Vietnam

VIETNAM - Dolberg, Feb 2005

  • little compensation implemented and almost none for small holders (57% of the birds culled)

  • larger farms appeared to receive "fairer treatment"

  • even for larger farms, compensation amounted to 18% of market value

  • costs of total losses

    • USD 200 Mil, of which 13.2 for compensation

Slide 16

Compensation - Vietnam update

VIETNAM - Govt. of Vietnam, Sept 2005

  • Central Govt. released USD 19Mil for HPAI control

  • equivalent amount from local governments

  • total USD 38Mil

  • "A large part of these budgets was used to compensate for farmers who had their poultry died or culled during the epidemics"

Slide 17

Compensation - Dolberg, 2004

  • farmers surveyed in Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam
  • Only 10-20% of value of birds covered (Govt. estimates)

All but Thailand:

  • farmers prefer soft credit and vet services
  • compensation ranked 4th or 5th over other options (better veterinary services, credit, etc.)

My conclusions:

1) low levels of compensation neither valued nor effective
2) focus program funds on high compensation for worst off

  • Poultry in sector 2, 3
  • Source of protein in sector 4

Slide 18

Compensation program recommendations

  • Targeting

    • Be realistic

      • not everyone will benefit
      • budget expectations

    • Aim for >75% of market price
    • Work with private sector

  • Time horizon

    • Short term vs. longer term
    • Recovery of local vs. international markets

  • A temporary instrument

    • A response to a crisis situation
    • Part of a larger plan

Slide 19

Part II:

Costs and Budgeting

Slide 20

Compensation - what to consider

  • Who benefits

    • Identification, verification

  • Cost elements

    • Cash costs, debt servicing, administration, etc.

  • Implementation (nature of program)

    • Cash transfer
    • Soft loan (interest free)
    • In-kind transfer to producers
    • Alternative livelihood training and relocation

Slide 21

Compensation - eligibility

  • Profile of recipients

    • Scale of production

      • All producers or just most vulnerable
      • Moral questions as well as economic

    • Contract growers may be serviced by contractor

      • Buy out clause

  • Valuation

    • Market value (pre-crisis prices)
    • Birds, loss of production, secondary products
    • Exceptional cases (fighting cocks, fancy breeds, etc.)

  • Identification and verification

    • Avoid paying false claims (moral hazard)

      • Spot checks, production records (feed bills, etc)

    • Videotape, other documentation

Slide 22

Compensation - costs

  • Producer compensation

    • Birds
    • Lost production
    • Lost secondary markets

  • Administration

    • Accounting, distribution, records
    • Identification and verification

  • Loan servicing costs

  • Education and awareness

    • Advertising, restructuring
    • Policy options

Slide 23

Scenario analysis

  • Why do a scenario analysis

    • Program planning requires thinking!!
    • Examining options for preparedness
    • An instrument for lobbying

      • government, donors, lenders

    · Inputs

    • Data

      • Often best estimates
      • Results highly sensitive to data

    • Epidemiologic linkages

    · Outputs

    • Range of options, range of costs, variables of most impact
    • Instrument for planning and lobbying

Slide 24

Scenario analysis

  • Assumptions

    • Broiler farms, sectors 3 & 4
    • Typical farm has 150 birds
    • Average market price per bird = $1.00
    • 8-10 weeks per cycle
    • Administration = 1% market cost

  • Three scenarios

    • Mild outbreak - minimal losses
    • Moderate outbreak
    • Severe epidemic - devastating losses

Slide 25

Scenario analysis


Mild

Moderate

Severe

Farms

20

200

1500

Districts

1

3

15

Cull nearby

Voluntary

Enforced

Enforced

Lost prodn. cycles

1

2

4

Loan servicing

No

Small

Large

Restructuring

No

Yes

Yes

Slide 26

Scenario analysis


Mild

Moderate

Severe

Farms

20

200

1500

Districts

1

3

15

Birds per farm

150

150

150

Lost cycles

1

2

4

Price per bird

$1

$1

$1

Administration costs

1%

1%

1%

Loan servicing

n.a.

5%

10%

Restructuring/farm

n.a.

$500

$500

Slide 27

Scenario analysis


Mild

Moderate

Severe

Birds

2,250

45,000

675,000

Production

2,250

90,000

2,700,000

Admin

23

450

6,750

Education

2,500

7,500

37,500

Restructuring

-

100,000

750,000

Sub-total

7,023

242,950

4,169,250

Loan servicing

-

12,148

416,925

TOTAL

$ 7,023

$ 255,098

$ 4,586,175

Slide 28

Scenario analysis - uncertainty


Mild

Moderate

Severe

Farms

20

200

1500

Districts

1

3

15

Birds per farm

150

150

150

Lost cycles

1 (+/- 10%)

2 (+/- 12.5%)

4 (+/- 12.5%)

Price per bird

1 (+/- 20%)

1 (+/- 20%)

1 (+/- 20%)

Administration costs

1%

1%

1%

Loan servicing

n.a.

5%

10%

Restructuring/farm

n.a.

500

500

Slide 29

Scenario analysis - all outcomes

Simulated total

Mild

Moderate

Severe

Mean

$ 7,033

$ 255,860

$ 4,640,922

Min

3,802

165,711

2,356,377

Max

11,426

399,512

8,312,661

Slide 30

Scenario analysis - mild outbreak result

Slide 31

Scenario analysis - all outcomes

Sensitivity analysis:

  • Price uncertainty

    • more impact in the mild scenario

  • Lost cycles

    • more impact in moderate & severe scenarios

Policy implications:

e.g. considering restructuring vs. price supports
If expect a moderate outbreak, better to address restructuring/alternate livelihoods

Slide 32

Budgeting

Cash reserves:

  • Emergency fund
  • Requires law/cabinet order

National/Regional banks:

Loans, restructuring plans
Not NGOs, donor community

"Check off" program:

Pooled reserves
e.g. ¼-1% market value of product collected at sale birds, feed and housing sales, vaccine sales encourage sector 1 participation

  • reducing overall risk improves profit expectation

Slide 33

Further questions

  • Socially optimal solutions

    • Minimizing costs (an appropriate question?)
    • Targeting recipients

  • Financing

    • Most efficient timing of program
    • Collection of funding source

  • Impact

    • On other sectors (fish, beef, pork)
    • Household nutrition

Slide 34

Thank you!


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