SPECIAL REPORT

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION
TO SUDAN

1 February 2007

 Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan from 7 to 29 October 2006 and northern Sudan from 11 November to 5 December 2006 in order to assess the current season’s cereal production, forecast wheat production from areas prepared for planting, and estimate cereal import requirements for the marketing year 2006/07 (November/October). The Mission in both northern and southern Sudan received the full cooperation from all concerned Government Authorities. The Mission included representatives from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MoAF) of the Government of South Sudan (GOSS), Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) and the Strategic Reserves Cooperation. The Mission was accompanied by EC and USAID observers and benefited from a wide range of discussions with both national and international stakeholders.

The mission reviewed latest available information on early warning indicators, crop production, markets, food security, nutrition and humanitarian reports combined with field observations and discussion with key informants. The main data and reports that were critically reviewed were: remote sensed vegetation indices and rainfall monitoring reports, crop production forecasts by the Ministry of Agriculture, the national Annual Needs Assessment and the inter-agency Darfur Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment. Annexes 1 and 2 provide further details on the methodology.

In northern Sudan, pre-harvest estimates of area and yield were provided by the State Ministries of Agriculture and the various irrigation schemes. The Mission discussed and crosschecked these estimates during field inspections and interviews with farmers, herders and traders. Discussions were also held with key informants from relevant local government offices, credit institutions, UN Agencies and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). It is particularly worth mentioning the valuable information provided by the Food Security Coordination Committees (FSCC) led by FAO and WFP in all three Darfur States. The formation of these committees, which consist of representatives of relevant government authorities, UN agencies and NGOs working in these areas is an encouraging development which needs to be strengthened.

In southern Sudan, the Mission held meetings with officials of various ministries of Government of South Sudan (GOSS) including the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MoAF), the South Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (SSRRC), the South Sudan Centre for Statistics and Evaluation (SSCCSE) and the Ministry of Trade and Commerce; officials of UN and other international agencies. Location specific information was provided by the NGOs Action Contre la Faim (ACF), FARM Africa, CARE International, Oxfam-UK, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Sudan Red Crescent (SRC), World Vision International (WVI), International Rescue Committee (IRC), SudanAid, Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA), Swedish Free Mission (SFM), Catholic Relief Services (CRS), CONCERN, Tearfund (TF), Vétérinaires sans Frontiéres (VSF)-Belgium, MSF-Spain, Action Africa Help (AAH), Mercy Corps, Norwegian Peoples Aid (NPA), International Aid Services (IAS), War Child, ACORD and GTZ. Information on population was provided by the Information Management Unit for Sudan of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA –IMU). The Mission Team was also supported by information from the FAO Emergency Unit, WFP VAM Unit and JRC. Information obtained from State officials, NGOs and international agencies was cross-checked by the Mission’s own field inspections and interviews with farmers and traders. The Mission also undertook spot-check market surveys. In addition, low flying, wherever possible, enabled to note the farm, field and crop condition for the duration of the flights.

Since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005, the Government of South Sudan (GOSS) has formally established four line Ministries directly dealing with natural resources: The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and the Ministry of Environment and Wildlife. These four Ministries link to ten State Ministries of Rural Development and Natural Resources that contain departments mirroring the directorates in the ministries at the federal level in South Sudan. The main effect of the progress made so far is a sense of improved security in southern Sudan and in the Nuba Mountains. This has led to increased freedom of movement and investment of time and energy in land cultivation and other rural endeavours allowing for an expansion of cropped land and the incipient resettlement of previously displaced families.

In southern Sudan, the 2006 agricultural season was characterized by increased amount of rainfall compared to the previous year. However, dry spells at critical periods of crop establishment and growth in June and July affected crops, particularly in the normally surplus regions of Central and Western Equatoria and parts of Unity and Jonglei. In addition, severe localized floods in parts of Upper Nile, Unity, Jonglei, Lakes and Warrab States have caused serious crop and livestock damage. On the other hand, better distributed rains in Greater Bahr-el-Ghazal, allowed for more production. There were adequate seed supplies among the settled farmers, IDPs, returnees and host families in most areas. FAO supported seed distributions in targeted areas were both timely and appropriate with the exception of Western Bahr-el-Ghazal where it was reported that the seeds were delivered relatively late for the planting season. In addition, improved security conditions encouraged more returnees to go to their original villages which in turn allowed for the cultivation of more land. As in previous years, the Mission’s estimate of cultivated area under traditional farming is based on numbers of households, derived from the projected population figures, and average size of holding per household. The increase in the area cultivated is not commensurate with the natural population growth and the number of returnees settling into their villages as it is still inhibited by the slow pace of de-mining activities particularly in fields surrounding the old garrison towns. In addition, armed activities of Uganda’s Lords Resistance Army (LRA) in parts of Central, Western and Eastern Equatoria last May/June and inter-clan conflicts and cattle rustling have displaced sizeable number of households, negatively affecting cultivation of land. LRA attacks at harvest time have also resulted in looting and loss of produce.

In northern Sudan, the cropped areas in all three sectors: -irrigated, mechanised rainfed, and traditional-increased in 2006, and yields were generally better than in 2005. Aggregate production across the three sectors is considerably better than the previous year’s above average performance and is above the long-term average. However, insecurity in Darfur, especially the recent upsurge in conflict, may seriously hamper harvesting in the region.

Overall, the Mission found that generally favourable growing conditions have resulted in a record cereal crop in 2006/07 which is forecast at about 6.64 million tonnes, comprising 5.2 million tonnes of sorghum, 792 000 tonnes of millet, 642 000 tonnes of wheat (to be harvested in April/May 2007) and small amounts of maize and rice. This represents an increase of 22 percent over the previous year’s good crop and about 36 percent over the average for the previous five years. This record cereal crop will result in ample supplies in the 2006/07 (November/October) marketing year. Prices of cereals, mainly sorghum, have shown a sharp decline in major producing areas and are expected to fall further with the arrival of the bulk of the harvest on local markets.

Livestock are generally in good condition throughout the country with pasture and water levels in water holes (hafirs) generally satisfactory. Livestock prices are relatively high and with the expected national surplus of grain and declining prices, the terms of trade for pastoralists are expected to improve markedly.

Increased export earnings from oil have continued to boost overall economic activity. Oil exports rose from zero in 1998 to US$4.2 billion in 2005, when they accounted for 85 percent of exports. Real GDP growth accelerated to reach an average of 8 percent and 10 percent in 2005 and 2006, respectively. In 2007 GDP growth is forecast at 10.9 percent. Foreign exchange reserves nearly doubled to US$2.5 billion in 2005 compared to 2004 and rose to US$2.8 billion in May 2006. These factors have also led to the appreciation of the Sudanese Dinar from an average of SD244:US$1 in 2005 to SD212:US$1 in December 2006. The foregoing, notwithstanding, Sudan’s debt holds sway over its development prospects. Total external debt is estimated at about US$29 billion in 2006. The World Bank is currently working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the question of arrears and debt relief, in coordination with a debt support group being led by the United Kingdom, to ensure that the country’s debt does not hinder the flow of funds from international lenders and donors. it is also estimated that the current-account deficit has widened to around US$5bn (12.6 percent of GDP) in 2006. It will forecast to fall back to about US$4.8bn (8.8 percent of GDP) in 2007, as the trade position strengthens, before widening again to US$5.4bn in 2008 although it will continue to fall as a proportion of GDP.

The overall food situation is, therefore, highly favourable. At the aggregate level, the country is able to cover all of its cereal requirements following a record level of cereal production; a relatively large carry-over stock from last year’s above average crop and the country’s enhanced ability to import commercially to cover any domestic shortfalls. Large quantities of grain could also be exported, provided that export markets are secured, particularly in some neighbouring countries.

However, problems of physical and financial access to food due mainly to war and conflict related displacement and economic isolation render millions of vulnerable people dependent on food assistance. The intermittent and recently escalating civil conflict in the three Darfur states has already caused increased displacements of people. In addition, in southern Sudan, the overall food security outlook in 2007 will be rather mixed - while the availability of food commodities will relatively improve, due to increased crop production mainly in the traditionally food deficit areas of Greater Bahr-el-Ghazal, economic accessibility varies by population groups as well as regions. The IDPs and returnees remain the most vulnerable of the population groups while Northern Bahr-El- Ghazal, Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei and Unity States are relatively more precarious regions. As a result, nearly 4.6 million people are estimated to be in need of food assistance in 2007.

Significant quantities of food assistance commodities were observed in several markets, especially in Darfur. While the WFP country office indicated that it had been intended that beneficiaries in Darfur would sell a portion of their rations to meet other needs – including milling costs and foods not included in the ration – this should be more closely monitored to ensure that the entry of food aid commodities into local markets does not provide a disincentive to local production or commercial trade. The Mission recommends the following steps – some of which are already underway – to address these concerns:

• A market study needs to be carried out to determine the extent of commodity flows, market functions & impact of food aid on agricultural production and domestic markets.

• A thorough scrutiny of beneficiary lists is recommended to minimize any inclusion errors, to ensure that the aid goes to those who need it most.

• Consider other method of financing milling cost than through increased food aid ration which is at a much higher cost to financing agencies and potential source of leakage of food aid into the market.

Given the countries recent economic growth and consecutive favourable production season’s, the central government and local institutions need to be encouraged to take more responsibilities in caring for the chronically food insecure: In particular:

• Phase down and phase out of international food assistance in eastern and central Sudan. WFP needs to prepare a work plan to ensure a coordinated use of food allocation with the SRC during the recommended final phase of food assistance.

• Strengthen early warning systems, particularly in areas where food aid is reduced or withdrawn.

• Alter the cycle of emergency appeal period from the current January to December to April to March, so that the emergency appeal benefits from the several assessment missions and surveys carried out.

Furthermore, given the large sorghum surplus in the country, it is recommended that well-timed local purchases be made by the Sudan Strategic Reserve Corporation (SRC) and for food aid programmes, in order to meet food aid requirement so as to prevent domestic food market distortions and ensure locally-acceptable varieties of cereals. In addition, timely assistance is required to support the agricultural sector, including emergency support to returnees and other vulnerable farming communities, before the start of the next cropping season in April/May in the south, and June/July in the north.

2. SOCIO ECONOMIC CONTEXT

2.1 General

Several parts of Sudan have been devastated by decades of civil wars and conflict, destruction of physical and human resources, and erosion of institutions and social capital. The state of continuous conflict that had prevailed since 1983 in southern Sudan ended in 2005 with the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). This agreement provides for six years of joint rule before a plebiscite in 2011 to determine whether the region will continue as an autonomous part of Sudan or become an independent sovereign state. The CPA also includes special provisions for Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile (also referred to as the Transitional Areas or the Three Areas).

Another peace agreement was signed in mid-October 2006, following a series of talks mediated by Eritrea, between the government and insurgents from the Eastern Front. Although this agreement provides for some power-and wealth-sharing mechanisms, its long-term viability will depend upon the success of a national conference, planned for 2007, which is intended to produce a broader consensus on the administrative balance of power between the national government, the regions and the states.

The yet unresolved conflict in the three states of Darfur remains a large-scale humanitarian emergency, with a high toll in terms economic and social disruption, and loss of life. Peace talks between the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebel groups are ongoing, but conflict continues and the United Nations and NGOs are continuing to provide humanitarian relief.

2.2  Population

Estimating population in Sudan is a daunting task. The most recent government census, in 1993, could not be carried out in southern Sudan so that even that survey – now 13 years out of date – is not national in scope. Nevertheless, the population figure from that census – 24.9 million – serves as the point of departure for estimates of the population of northern Sudan.

In southern Sudan, population dynamics are highly fluid with large refugee and IDP flows, unknown numbers of war deaths, compounded by inconsistent area definitions. Counting a semi-nomadic population is also complicated by the fact that men are often away with their cattle. As a result, population estimates for southern Sudan differ enormously between different sources. The publication of the NSCSE/UNICEF¹ report “Towards a Baseline: Best estimates of social indicators for Southern Sudan” in 2004 provided a comprehensive revision of available demographic indicators and presented new population estimates based on Census projections, migration assumptions, and the review of the WHO/NDIs based population estimate. Population in 2003 is estimated by NSCSE at 7.5 million, increasing at a high natural growth rate (NGR) of 2.85 percent. This estimate is only for the former rebel-held areas and does not include population in the towns previously controlled by the central government. Figures for these populations were neither available at the National Statistic Bureau in Khartoum, but estimates vary from 500 000 to over 1 million people. Forward projection of the 2003 population has been made difficult by the lack of accurate information on the number and family composition of refugees and IDPs returning to the south from 2004 to 2006.

Taking account of these separate sets of population estimates, Table 1 and 2 below indicate estimates for northern Sudan, based on Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and southern Sudan, based on the above-mentioned NSCSE 2003 population estimates.

Table 1. Sudan: Population estimates in Northern Sudan and three areas, 2005, 2006 and mid-2007

Source: CBS 2006 and Mission forecast.

* The population figures indicated above for the three Darfur States add up to 7.07 million people. However, the Interagency Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment (EFSNA), following provisions for the displaced within and outside Sudan, indicated that the total population figure to be around 5.775 million in mid-2007.

For southern Sudan, population projections were made with adjustments to the returnees population based on latest information and discussions with relevant institutions. The following assumptions were used to arrive at the current population estimates:

• The NSCSE 2003 population estimate of 7.5 million, reported by UN-OCHA on its “Sudan Transition and Recovery Data Base” (STARBASE), was used as a base. The year 2003 has been adopted as baseline because no further effort was made to project into subsequent years until the population and housing census, planned for November 2007, is carried out.

• As the number of counties and their borders have increased since last year and were still changing at the time of the Mission, estimates of population and production, unlike earlier years, were made at the state level.

• The annual average NGR of 2.85 percent has been used for all states, as no detailed information by state was available.

• Population data from the former “garrison towns” were used from the previous year’s CFSAM estimates and projected into 2007 at the average NGR.

• Preliminary returnee figures from 2004 to 2006 and projected returnees for 2007 were adjusted by the Mission following discussions with OCHA, SSCCSE and SSRRC. One million people are assumed to have returned from 2004 to 2006 and about 350 000 projected to return in 2007. Through further discussions, the net returnee figures to southern Sudan - to account for the returnees from one part of southern Sudan to another and avoid double counting – 75 percent of the 1 million were assumed to have returned from either northern Sudan or neighbouring countries. In the absence of better information on the family composition and growth rate of the returnee population, the average NGR of 2.85 percent was used.

Based on the above assumptions, the mid-2007 population of Southern Sudan is projected by the Mission at 9.85 million people. It is important to re-emphasize that in absence of firm and comprehensive statistics on population, the Mission’s population figures, and the derived production and cereal balance estimates, should be taken with great caution.

Table 2. Southern Sudan: Estimated Population in 2006 and Projected Population in mid-2007

Source: UN-OCHA “Sudan Transition and Recovery Data Base” (STARBASE) and Mission forecast

Accordingly, Sudan’s total population in 2006 is estimated at about 40.2 million, comprising of 30.75 million in northern Sudan and about 9.46 million in southern Sudan. However, it is important to underline that in absence of firm and comprehensive statistics on population, the Mission’s population figures, and the derived production and food deficit estimates, should be taken with caution.

2.3 Macro-economic situation

For much of the period after independence, from the late 1960s to the early 1990s, Sudan approached economic development through an expanded role for the state, both as investor and manager of enterprises. Beginning in 1969, the majority of private enterprises were nationalized, and interventionist policies such as price controls and credit and exchange rate restrictions were introduced. These policies, together with the cost of war, mainly in southern Sudan, contributed to the subsequent decline of the Sudanese economy. In the period from the late 1970s to the early 1990s, huge fiscal and balance-of-payment deficits, runaway inflation, difficult living conditions and the emigration of professional and skilled Sudanese mainly to the Gulf countries characterized the economic situation of this country.

A serious implementation of economic reforms began in the mid-1990s. The results of the reforms were evident in four main areas: the role of the state was reduced and that of the private sector increased; price and market controls were relaxed and incentives for production restored; the economy was stabilized and inflation dropped substantially from 130 percent in 1996 to 4.9 percent in 2001 and increased again to between 7 and 9 percent in 2005 and 2006. Economic growth started up once again; GDP grew on average by 3.8 percent per annum during 1990–1995 and then accelerated to an average of 6.6 percent per annum during 1996–2000. Real GDP growth accelerated to reach an average of 7.3 percent 8 percent and 10 percent in 2004, 2005 and 2006 respectively. In 2007 GDP growth is forecast at 10.9 percent. The GDP sectoral composition in 2005 indicate the continued dominance of the agricultural sector at 39 percent followed by the service sector at 34 percent and the manufacturing sector at 28 percent.

Oil exports have significantly boosted the Sudanese economy and triggered large changes in both the macro-economic environment and Sudan’s external position and relations. Oil exports rose from zero in 1998 to US$4 187 million in 2005, when they accounted for 85 percent of exports. Foreign exchange reserves in 2005, reached US$2.5 billion compared to US$1.6 billion in 2004 and rose further to US$2.8 billion in May 2006. This is an all-time high for Sudan –during the two decades before the development of the country's oil export sector reserves averaged just US$75m – and has done much to increase its resilience to external shocks. The Sudanese Dinar has continued to strengthen against the US dollar, reflecting Sudan's robust external-account performance during the ongoing oil boom. In 2004 and 2005 the exchange rate averaged SD258: US$1 and SD244: US$1 respectively. In December 2006 the Dinar stood at SD212: US$1. The foregoing, notwithstanding, Sudan’s debt holds sway over its development prospects. Total external debt is estimated at US$26 billion. The World Bank is currently working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the question of arrears and debt relief, in coordination with a debt support group being led by the United Kingdom, to ensure that the country’s debt does not hinder the flow of funds from international lenders and donors. Furthermore, although Sudan’s trade position is expected to improve over the outlook period, it must be set against a widening non-merchandise deficit. As new oil capacity comes on stream, greater income repatriation by foreign firms will result in a substantial increase in income debits, and services payments will rise roughly in line with imports and the needs of the oil sector. These negative flows will be only marginally offset by increased current transfer credits, as workers remittances rise. Overall, it is expected that the current-account deficit would have widened to around US$5bn (12.6 percent of GDP) in 2006. It will fall back to about US$4.8bn (8.8 percent of GDP) in 2007, as the trade position strengthens, before widening again to US$5.4bn in 2008"although it will continue to fall as a proportion of GDP.

2.4 The agricultural sector

Despite the diminishing share in overall export earnings, the agricultural sector continues to be the backbone of Sudan’s economy in terms of its contribution to GDP. Overall, agriculture represented 39 percent of the GDP in 2005, of which 25 percent was from crop production while 20 percent was from livestock. There are no official statistics of GDP composition in the areas of southern Sudan affected by the conflict, but agriculture is considered the most important sector. Agriculture also remains the main source of employment and household income in rural areas where 65 percent of the population live. About 80 percent of the labour force is employed in agriculture and related activities such as agro-industries.

Growth rate in the agricultural sector has noticeably declined from 7.3 percent in 2002 to 5.2 percent in 2003 and to 4.5 percent in 2004 but increased back to 7 percent in 2005. The decline in 2003 was mainly due to the deterioration in the traditional rain-fed agriculture while further decline in 2004 is attributed to the poor performance of the mechanised rain-fed agriculture. Crop production, which is dominated by cereals, is characterised by high levels of annual fluctuations mainly due to high rainfall variations. Of an estimated 84 million ha of arable land (with reasonably fertile soils), 1.89, 8.37 and 5.44 million ha respectively were under irrigated agriculture, traditional rain-fed cultivation and mechanized farming in the years 2000-2005 agricultural seasons.

Livestock form an important component of the agricultural sector, with production mainly based on traditional pastoral systems (90 percent of the livestock in the country belong to the traditional pastoral production systems). Livestock forms an increasingly important part of the agricultural economy, and has displaced cash crops as the fastest growing non-oil export sector. As a result of government encouragement (for instance, the recent and on-going rehabilitation of livestock export facilities including veterninary quarantine centres, and the policy revisions, with the help of FAO, of livestock marketing and taxation) there has been a surge in commercial livestock production, notably of camels, goats, sheep and cattle. Much of the production has been for sale abroad, with the Arab states of the Gulf (especially Saudi Arabia) showing strong demand for Sudanese output. Export growth was badly affected by an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in 2000 in Saudi Arabia, which was linked to meat exports from East Africa and led to a blanket ban on imports from the region (including Sudan) across the Gulf. As a result, export earnings fell from US$139m in 1999 to just US$15m in 2001. However, most Gulf countries had lifted their ban on Sudanese meat imports by late 2001, and the sector has rebounded strongly since. Data from the Bank of Sudan reveal that in 2005 total livestock exports had recovered to US$154m, making it the second largest export earner after crude oil.

However, in Darfur lack of mobility and access to markets due to conflict has greatly jeopardized pastoralist livelihoods.² In some cases, pastoralists and their livestock are forced to change migratory patterns to less desirable destinations, exposing animals to insufficient water and pasture. Concentration of animals also leads to over-use of water and pasture resources, environmental degradation and possibly contagious diseases, prompting distress sales. New trade routes have not compensated for the loss of usual income from livestock exports to Libya and Egypt.

Sesame earned only US$119 000 from 155 000 tonnes in 2005 compared to US$179 000 from 218 000 tonnes in 2004. Gum Arabic exports recovered in 2005 earning US$108 000 from 29 000 tonnes compared to US$61 000 from 27 000 tonnes.

3. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 2006/07

3.1 Main factors affecting cereal production in 2006

3.1.1  Agricultural finance and credit

The provision of short-term agricultural credit, through the Agricultural Bank of Sudan, for the irrigated and mechanised rainfed sectors continues to show steady but slow progress, though there is wide variation amongst the various branches with regard to performance and efficiency. Short-term credit has been much more readily available to farmers this year in northern Sudan, and not only to large farmers with obvious collateral. In Kassala, for instance, farmers with as little as 10 feddans were able to obtain loans.

The ‘selem’ system of loans, whereby the farmers must pay back their loans in kind at a nominal value much lower than what they could expect to get in the market, is seen as a real constraint to their getting out of the perpetual loan cycle. Farmers frequently complain that they are forced to sell their produce to traders for a price below the floor price as they have urgent cash requirements.

The National Wheat Programme offers incentives to farmers who grow wheat. Under the programme, urea, which normally retails at SD 4 500 per bag, is provided to wheat growers at SD 3 500, while diesel, which retails for approximately SD 24 000 per barrel, is provided at SD 13 000.

3.1.2 Rainfall

Average annual rainfall in Sudan ranges from almost zero in the north of the country to 1 800 mm in the southern state of Western Equatoria. Rainfall in 2006 was generally good, and mostly better than that of 2005, itself a good season. Although the rains started late in the south, this late start was followed by a very satisfactory rainy season in terms of amounts and distribution. Many parts of the north also experienced a late start, but again this was generally followed by a rainy season that was longer and wetter than usual.

Above-average rainfall was particularly evident in East Equatoria, the general area of Lakes, Warab and West Bahr-el-Ghazal, Kordofan and most parts of Darfur. Less favourable rainfall prevailed in parts of Eastern Sudan and in Upper Nile, but amounts were still near the long-term average. Some of the high-production areas towards the east of the country, such as parts of Gezira, Sennar, Gedaref and southern Kassala, reported poor spatial distribution of rainfall following a late start, with often large differences between closely neighbouring localities. Dry spells were also reported in this part of the country in July and September.

The chronically food-insecure state of Red Sea not only received good main-season rains this year but also benefited from an early start to the coastal rainy season. This most unreliable season sometimes skips a year or may be so slight that it is of negligible agricultural or rangeland use. This year however, it started early in November, by the end of which month it had delivered more than half of its optimal rainfall. Expectations were for about 90 percent satisfaction of the optimum by the end of the season.

Good rains in Eritrea and along the border with Sudan ensured a satisfactory season for the two major spate irrigation schemes of Tokar and Gash. Heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands in September led to flooding along the banks of the Nile north of Khartoum. Parts of Nile State and the eastern part of Northern State were adversely affected, with the loss of crops, livestock and dwellings.

3.1.3 Area planted

Cereal areas have increased in all three sectors in northern Sudan in 2006 in response to the favourable rains, improved mechanisation, and increased availability of inputs and credit. In the irrigated sector, continuing rehabilitation programmes have expanded or reclaimed cultivable areas. These programmes involve mesquite removal, canal cleaning, the replacement or rehabilitation of pumps, land levelling, and in some cases, the construction of new canals. In the mechanised rainfed sector, expansion has been assisted not only by the favourable rains but also by an increase in the number of privately owned tractors and other equipment. Further expansion would appear to be limited for the time being by a continuing reliance on increasingly scarce labour for such operations as weeding and harvesting. The first of these is gradually being addressed through the increasing use of herbicides, while some farmers are now investigating the feasibility of combine-harvesting a crop as non-uniform as rainfed sorghum in the context of Sudan.

Sorghum in the irrigated sector showed an increase in area of 22 percent compared with last year. The largest increases were on Gezira scheme and in River Nile State. In the mechanised rainfed sector, expansion has been mainly in the area under millet while the area under sorghum was, overall, only slightly larger than that of 2005. The expansion of area under millet, which was, on aggregate, more than 50 percent larger than in 2005, was consistent in all producing states, while the area under sorghum was smaller than last year in some states and larger in others.

In the traditional sector, relatively small increases in area have been registered compared with last year - 15 percent for sorghum, and 8 percent for millet. Labour is the principle constraint in this sector, and this year’s relatively small expansion probably gives a good idea of where the limit of expansion is located. However, expansion is some areas is more opportunistic than elsewhere. For instance, River Nile State reported an increase of more than 700 percent under traditional sorghum. This is explained by the utilisation this year of large areas under demira cropping which were not used at all last year.

Although the wheat crop will not be harvested until March or April 2007, it seems likely that the harvested area will be almost 50 percent up on that of 2005/06. In Darfur, however, conflict related insecurity and displacements have significantly reduced cereal area. Before the conflict, the five year (1999/00 to 2002/03) average for cereal harvested area was about 1.8 million hectares. The harvested area estimates in 2004/05, 2005/06 and the forecast in 2006/07 are 0.9 million, 1.2 million and 1.1 milllion hectares respectively.

In southern Sudan, following Mission practices of previous years, area estimates for the traditional sector are compiled from population statistics. As stated in section 2.3, this year’s calculations are based on the 2003 population by counties prepared by NSCSE for the former rebel-held areas, projected at a NGR of 2.85 percent. To these were added data from the former garrison towns, to determine the residential population in each State, as well as the preliminary OCHA figures of returnees in 2004 to 2006.

• Number of households in each county by dividing the 2006 population estimate by an average of 6 persons.

• Percentage of households in settled population, including long-term IDPs, farming in 2006 as noted by and reported to the Mission.

• Average area cropped to cereals per household this year, including home-gardens and far-fields as noted by and reported to the Mission.

• Area cultivated and production of the returnees has been considered separately as numbers are highly tentative. In estimating the percentage of returnees farming and the cropped area, it has been assumed that returnees will be able to farm only limited areas in their initial year for plots need clearing and land cultivating which takes a lot of time and/or money to employ or attract labour groups.

3.1.4 Agricultural inputs

Agricultural inputs have been more readily available in 2006 than in recent years, though some prices have risen in the past 12 months. A gallon of diesel, for instance, now costs SD 510, whereas last year it cost SD 410 - an increase of almost 25 percent. On the other hand, the price of fertilizer at about SD 4 500 has remained unchanged in most parts of the country.

This year has seen a significant increase in the use of improved seed and certified seed in the mechanised rainfed and the irrigated sectors. In Blue Nile State, for instance, it was reported that 90 percent of the mechanised rainfed area was planted with improved seed, while on the Gezira scheme, 95 percent of the sorghum seed used was improved. Improved seed was available commercially from companies such as the Arab Seed Corporation, while distributions were carried out through the SMAARI and FAO. For instance, in Kassala, the SMAARI provided 830 tonnes of seed through the Farmers Union, while FAO delivered 225 tonnes of sorghum seed to IDPs through NGOs. (Nevertheless, Kassala reported a shortage of seed for replanting areas that were hit by a dry spell in July.) Further west in South Kordofan it was estimated that about 8 percent of the seed used this year came through the SMAARI, FAO or other agencies, while in North Kordofan 10 percent of the seed used was improved. There were also distributions in Darfur. For better land preparation and in order to avoid the problems and expenses of hiring labour for weeding, many more farmers in the mechanised rainfed sector are now beginning to use herbicides (mostly 2,4-D).

Many production areas in north Sudan have reported a more acute shortage of labour for harvesting than in previous years. Reflecting this shortage, the price of labour has risen, but not as much as it did in 2005. Price increases are especially evident in the west and in parts of Central Region. Factors contributing to the shortage of labour include the return of displaced people to the south, more attractive non-agricultural labour opportunities in the fast-growing urban centres, and the increase in cropped area this year which has absorbed much of the labour that would otherwise have been available. Labour shortages are a real concern for the mechanised rainfed sector where many individual farmers still have tens of thousands of feddans of crop waiting to be harvested. Combined with the currently very low price of sorghum, this potentially puts in jeopardy a large proportion of the crop, the return from which may not justify the cost of harvesting it.

Mechanisation has improved visibly in recent years in the higher-production areas, reflecting the country’s increasing wealth. Whereas farmers used to depend very heavily on the Mechanised Farming Corporation’s old, unreliable and inefficient tractors, there is now a much expanded national fleet of new, often privately owned tractors. As illustration of this, the Agricultural Bank of Sudan recently imported 90 new tractors for private sale on five-year loans in Northern State. Thirty have already been purchased.

In southern Sudan, the traditional sector depends predominantly on family labour and hand power. Animal traction is slowly being introduced in different parts of southern Sudan by several NGOs and FAO, although as yet it is too little to make a difference. No use of fertilizers, pesticides or herbicides is noted. For seeds, households overwhelmingly depend on local landraces, either farm produced and carried over from one year to the next, supplied by kinship connections or purchased in local markets. In addition, most agencies providing planting material to IDPs, returnees and vulnerable households buy and redistribute local landraces rather than exotic varieties that are often not used or perform less well than indigenous material. In 2006, FAO supported seed distributions in targeted areas were both timely and appropriate with the exception of Western Bahr-el-Ghazal where it was reported that the seeds were delivered late.

In the mechanized sector, in Renk 60 percent of the area under sorghum is noted to be under the improved varieties of Arfagadamec and Wad Ahmed. The crop stands are in good condition but remain vulnerable to attacks from migratory quelea quelea birds until the harvest in January- March. The area financed by agricultural lending banks (mainly by Agriculture Bank of Sudan and Nile Commercial Bank) in Renk in 2006 amounted to more than SD500 million for diesel and weeding costs. This compares with SD420 million in 2005. Later in the year another sum will be provided to cover harvesting costs. Tractor hire for two passes using contractors this year was SD1400 per feddan. Regarding other inputs, most commercial farmers in Renk dressed seed against sorghum smut, as the chemical treatment was available from the MOA and a few used herbicides as a cheaper alternative to hand weeding. Weeding costs in Renk are noted at SD850 per feddan. Cutting and collecting costs SD2 500 per feddan and threshing SD400 per 90kg sack.

3.1.5 Weeds, pests and diseases

The 2006 cropping season was largely pest-free over much of Sudan, and those pests that did appear, such as birds, were satisfactorily controlled through campaigns sponsored by the Government and other agencies. There were no reports of desert locusts. Several local bird species as well as Quelea quelea, which is classified as a national pest, can wreak devastation on a standing crop. This year, SMAARIs in vulnerable states have again successfully controlled threatening bird populations by aerial spraying of nesting sites. yet birds have seriously affected millet and sorghum crops in South Darfur state. Birds also pose a threat to wheat growers and are one of the reasons for late planting. A farmer who sows his fields before his neighbours risks losing most of the seed to birds. Farmers therefore try to delay sowing until all their neighbours have sown; no farmer wants to be the first to sow. The incidence of sorghum bug (Agonoscelis pubescens) increased this year in some areas in the east as a result of the prolonged rainy season. Where it posed a threat, for instance in Gedaref, the pest was satisfactorily held in check through campaigns mounted by the SMAARI. Sorghum midge, which attacks late-planted sorghum, was reported in Nile State.

In the east of Northern and the north of Nile, the parasitic weed broomrape (Orobanche sp) has infested substantial areas of land that are usually used for the production of faba beans and vegetables. Since this is a difficult weed to eliminate (its tiny seeds can remain viable for a number of years) it has contributed to the decision of many farmers not to grow beans this year. Green scale continues to pose a threat to date producers in Northern State. At present it appears to be essentially confined to Golid and El Ghaba schemes, but it could easily spread as there is no formal control of the movement of planting material from one scheme to another.

Watermelon bug (Aspongopus viduatus) can decimate a crop of watermelons. This year, however, it was again successfully controlled in the important production area of North Kordofan through WFP’s Food for Bugs programme. Growers receive food in return for bugs removed manually from the crop. Growers’ livelihoods have thus been enhanced through both food assistance and a greatly improved crop. Although the woody weed mesquite (Prosopis spp.) has been outlawed nationally as a noxious species, it persists to some extent on most irrigation schemes by virtue of its very successful survival mechanisms. Seeds from the same pod will not all germinate at the same time but may germinate at different times over the course of a number of years. Mesquite is especially problematic in the spate irrigation schemes at Tokar and Gash. Recently however, more funds have been mobilised to combat it. At Tokar, a Sudanese company is now more than halfway through a two-year contract to clear the scheme of mesquite; 20 000 feddans have been cleared so far and the remaining 8 000 feddans are expected to be cleared to a satisfactory level by June 2007. On Gash scheme, clearance of the weed has been partially achieved under an IFAD rehabilitation programme which is set to continue till 2012. Witchweed or striga is a perennial problem for sorghum producers. Often when infestation reaches a certain threshold the farmer will switch to growing millet which is slightly less susceptible to the parasitic weed. However, striga is very difficult to get rid of as it is extremely well adapted for survival; its seeds can remain viable in the soil for twenty or more years.

3.1.6 National cereal production forecast

The year 2006/07 is forecast to produce Sudan’s largest cereal harvest on record at 6.64 million tonnes. This represents a 36 percent increase on the average production of the previous five years, and an increase of 22 percent on the previous year’s good crop. The largest increases were in the north of the country. Wheat is expected to show the largest increase in percentage terms, though the largest increase in absolute tonnage is due to sorghum. Production figures by State for 2006/07 and comparisons with those for 2005/06 are given in Table 3. Cereal areas, yields and production by region for the past five years are given in Table 4.

Table 3. Sudan: Cereal production forecast for 2006/07, and estimates of 2005/06 production (‘000 tonnes)