S P E C I A L R E P O R T

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO ETHIOPIA

23 February 2007

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2006
• 4. GRAIN SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION
• 5. HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY AND EMERGENCY FOOD SECURITY NEEDS ASSESSMENT
• Annex 1      Annex 2        Acronyms and Abbreviations

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 12 November to 8 December 2006 to estimate the main meher season cereal and pulse production; review the final estimates of the 2005 main meher season and 2006 secondary belg season harvests; forecast the 2007 belg season production; and assess the overall food supply situation for the 2007 marketing year (January/December). Accompanied by experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Central Statistics Authority (CSA) and by observers from the European Commission and USAID, the Mission, with seven teams, visited sixty-three zones and special woredas (districts), over an 18-day period, in all the grain producing regions. In addition, helicopter overflights of the Gode and Afder zones, in Somali region, were carried out at the end of the field work.

Parallel to the Mission, but spread over a longer period, another assessment exercise (the “Meher Assessment”), led by the Government’s Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Authority, and with members comprising staff from the WFP Country Office, bilateral donor agencies and NGOs, visited several marginal localities and vulnerable zones and woredas in order to determine their current and prospective food security situation. The Meher assessment process was observed by three CFSAM teams, including a consultant nutritionist, who visited selected areas to work along with the Meher teams but also to triangulate findings with other information such as data on the health and nutrition status. A comparison of the preliminary results from the two exercises was organized at the conclusion of the country visit.

The Mission obtained planted area and yield data for all major food crops from woreda, zonal and regional agricultural bureaux, which were cross-checked against information from farmers, traders, NGOs and donor project staff and remote sensing data from early warning systems. Data on planted area were also compared with 2006’s CSA estimates of meher area of cereals and pulses. Within the visited zones and special woredas, 258 key informant interviews (to be considered as rapid case studies) were conducted with associated crop inspections, including several samples of spot-check crop-cuts. Market visits, livestock condition observations and continuous transect observation recording of crops and their conditions were conducted over the 28 000 km travelled by the teams. This information provided the background with which teams audited performance data received and, in several cases, official yield forecasts were adjusted to take into consideration latest and broader information.

The overall agricultural performance of the meher 2006 season is better than the previous year, due to improved yields in a greater cultivated area in both the main production zones and marginal areas. The improved yields are considered by the Mission to be due to the direct effects of well-distributed rainfall on crops, higher financial returns to grain growers prompting increased investment in inputs and timely farming operations and, finally, the improved availability of fertilisers, improved seeds and credit.

Overall, the Mission estimates total 2006/07 meher cereal and pulse production at slightly above 20 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the previous year’s post-harvest estimates and 53 percent above the average of the previous five years. It represents the third consecutive bumper harvest. With a belg harvest in July/August 2007 anticipated at the historical average 275 000 tonnes, total domestic availability of cereal and pulses for 2007 is estimated at 20.4 million tonnes. For the first time, the Ethiopia cereal and pulse balance sheet is provided with a breakdown by main cereal.

Since the beginning of 2004, prices of main cereals have followed a steady upward trend, without any significant post harvest reduction, and remaining above the average level throughout 2006. This trend may be explained by a combination of economic factors affecting effective grain demand and supply, and supporting the inflationary pressure induced by rising oil prices affecting all commodity markets. Last years’ nationwide good economic performance, fuelled by increasing investments in infrastructure, the injection of cash into the rural economy through the Productive Safety Net Program and budgetary support at woreda level, may have increased the local demand for grains and livestock. At the same time, despite the good harvests obtained in the previous years, volumes of grains available on markets may have not increased as expected or, at least, their sales may have been more evenly distributed over the year, instead of being concentrated at harvest time. Better financial capacity of farmers to retain and stock grains, increased local purchases by governmental food security institutions, agricultural cooperatives and relief agencies, together with expanded domestic and external trade flows, seem to be the main factors behind a reduced domestic supply.

The last three years have been characterized by a steady growth of the Ethiopian economy, with an average real GDP growth rate of 10.7 percent per year. The good performance of the agricultural sector as well as the increasing government’s poverty-targeted capital expenditure, especially in the sectors of road construction, education and agriculture, have supported a broad based expansion of the economy. Export earnings have also registered a substantial growth in recent years, owing to both increases in volume and revival in the prices of major exports in the international market.

From the above, it follows that the overall food situation is highly favourable, with an increase in food availability and possibly access for a large number of vulnerable groups. At the aggregate level, the country is able to cover all its cereal requirements. Stocks are expected to increase and a relatively large quantity of grains could also be exported.

However, a significant number of vulnerable households are still expected to remain largely food insecure and dependent on humanitarian assistance in 2007. The sustained and relatively high grain prices, although beneficial to surplus crop producing households, will also negatively affect the poorer households that are net buyers of grains. In view of expected good domestic grain production, local purchases by governmental institutions and relief agencies in surplus producing areas should be considered, but in view of continued high prices should be based on specific availability assessments..

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

2.1 Macro-economic situation

In the last three years, the Ethiopian economy has been characterized by a steady growth of real GDP. After a decline of 3.5 percent in 2002/03 as a result of the poor performance of the agricultural sector due to a severe drought, real GDP showed a strong positive performance in the following three years, with 11.9 percent in 2003/04, 10.5 percent in 2004/05 and 9.6 percent in 2005/06. Typically overall economic growth in Ethiopia is highly dependent on the performance of the agricultural sector that represents about 47 percent of GDP, followed by 39 percent from the service sector and 14 percent from the industrial sector. However, the three consecutive years of bumper harvests as well as the government’s investments in infrastructures have contributed to support a broad based expansion in the services and industry sectors.

Compared to the previous fiscal year, total government expenditure in 2005/06 has increased by 18 percent and it reflects the priority assigned to poverty-targeted capital investments. In fact, although the share of current expenditure in GDP has remained relatively constant, slightly below 14 percent, capital spending has steadily risen up to 12.6 percent of GDP from 9.3 percent of GDP in 2002/03. This is essentially due to growth of the pro-poor capital expenditure that increased from 6.1 million Birr in 2003/04, to 9 million Birr in 2004/05, to 11.8 million Birr in 2005/06, concerning in particular the sectors of road construction (+57 percent), education (+31 percent) and agriculture (+16 percent).

Table 1 – Macro-economic indicators

For long time, Ethiopia has been a country with low inflation rates in Sub-Saharan-Africa. In the past, this has been the result of several factors, such as a strong currency due to prudent monetary and fiscal policies (1960-1973), the general price control (1974-1992) or the implementation of economic reform and stabilization programs (1992-2004). The historic peak level of inflation has been 21 percent, which was recorded in 1991/92, mainly due to the severe drought that hit agricultural production. Since the end of 2004/beginning of 2005, coinciding with a good performance of the agricultural sector as well as the development of the electoral campaign, consumer prices started to gradually climb, reaching during 2005/06 the high inflation rate of 12.3 percent, 3.7 percentage points above the previous year’s level. This increase mainly reflects the trend in food inflation that passed from 7.7 percent in 2004/05 to 14.0 percent in 2005/06 (for detailed information on food prices, see section 4.2). At the same time, the rise in non-food prices is the result of rising oil prices and the higher cost of petroleum-based imports such as fertilisers, petrochemicals and plastics. The Ethiopian government tried to limit the impact of higher world oil prices by subsidising local fuel prices, but, with the cost of subsidies spiralling in line with world oil prices, the situation has become unsustainable. As a result, the government decided to lift local fuel prices by approximately 20 percent in April 2006 and by another 20 percent in August, adding inflationary pressure into the national price system.

In fiscal year 2005/06, Ethiopia registered a budget deficit of 5.5 percent of GDP (10.7 percent of GDP excluding external grants), the higher in the previous three years, essentially due to a grant shortfall and inefficiencies in tax collection. The new budget for 2006/07 targets a 16 percent increase in spending, especially in capital accounts, and it reflects the redirection of main donors’ funding directly to the woreda (district) level instead of giving budget support to the federal government. An important vehicle for this transfer of financial resources at district level is the World Bank’s Protection of Basic Services (PBS) project, within the context of the Interim Country Assistance Strategy 2006-07, which could be worth up to US$340 million by June 2007.

With regard to trade, total export earnings have registered substantial growth in recent years, owing to both increases in volume and revival in the prices of major exports in the international market. In 2005/06, the total value of exports grew by 18.1 percent, driven by an expansion in sales of coffee and a robust growth in other exports such as oilseeds (about +70 percent increase in value compared to 2004/05, especially due to a surge of sales of sesame seed to China), gold and leather products. The sectors of horticulture, especially flowers, and meat and live animals are also experiencing growth. Export prices of coffee and strong oilseeds have gone up by about 16 and 9 percent, respectively, during 2005/06. Imports also surged in 2005/06, reflecting the rise in private and public investment (especially in machinery and transport capital goods) and the increasing consumption demand following the fast pace of economic growth, alongside the escalating world oil price. By the end of the 2005/06 fiscal year, the trade deficit reached the record level of US$3,383 million, with an increase of 21.4 percent compared to the previous year and thus exports financed only 22.8 percent of imports.

Table 2 - Major agricultural exports (values in million Birr; volumes in ‘000 tonnes)

Despite a surplus in the capital account of about 4.2 percent of GDP, the deficit of the overall balance of payments has been funded by a mixture of reserve rundown and the proceeds of debt relief. Regarding foreign-exchange reserves, they fell to US$1.1 billion in June 2006, 26 percent lower than the year before and equivalent to the minimum acceptable level of 13 weeks of import cover.

During the 2005/06 fiscal year, the total external debt outstanding was Birr 6 036 million, with an increase of 0.24 percent compared to previous year. Multilateral creditors account for 81 percent of the total and the remaining 13 and 6 percent owned by bilateral and other commercial creditors.

Reflecting the Government commitment to enhance the competitiveness of the export sector, the official exchange rate of the Birr continued to slightly depreciate. The weighted average of official exchange rate data revealed that the value of the Birr against the US Dollar has shown a 0.34 percent annual depreciation to stand at US$1=Birr 8.68 in 2005/06 and US$1=Birr 8.65 in 2004/05.

2.2 Poverty and population

Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world. According to the 2006 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (based on 2004 data), Ethiopia is ranked 170th out of 177 countries in the human development index, with a GDP per capita adjusted with the Purchasing Power Parity of only US$756 (compared to almost US$2,000 average for Sub-Saharan countries). From 1995 to 2000, the incidence of poverty has marginally declined from 46 to 44 percent. Regarding the last five years, according to initial indications of the forthcoming Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey by the CSA (quoted in the 2006/09 Country Strategy Paper of the African Development Bank, published in June 2006), national poverty is expected to fall to 36 percent in 2004/05 as a consequence of the good economic performance and the substantial increase in Government’s poverty-targeted expenditures. It is also interesting to note that wealth in Ethiopia is rather equally distributed compared to other Sub-Saharan countries, with a very low Gini coefficient. Regarding non-income poverty indicators, gains in welfare have been significant during the last ten years, when Ethiopia began decentralizing basic service delivery responsibilities, first to regions and then more recently to local governments. From 1996 to 2005, national gross primary school enrolment ratio increased from 37.4 percent to 74.2 percent; adult literacy rate passed from 25.8 percent to 37.9 percent; the proportion of rural population with access to clean water and sanitation increased from 27.9 percent to 36 percent; the proportion of infants suffering from chronic malnutrition declined from 57 percent to 47 percent.

Rapid population growth remains a major barrier to poverty reduction. The addition of about 2 million persons per year puts tremendous strains on Ethiopia's resource base, the economy and the ability to deliver proper services. According to the UN World Population Prospects 1950–2050, Ethiopia's population in 2004 was 75.6 million, making it Sub-Saharan Africa's second most populous country after Nigeria, and it is expected to reach 97 million by 2015. Ethiopian population is still overwhelmingly rural, with 16 percent living in towns and only Addis Ababa, the capital, accounting for over 1 million people.

The population of Ethiopia for mid-year 2007 has been estimated by the Mission at 77.1 million. This estimate is based on projections by the Central Statistical Authority for mid-2006 population, applying the official overall annual population growth rate of 2.77 percent.

2.3 Recent developments in food security policy

The Government of Ethiopia, in close collaboration with donor partners, has developed a Food Security Programme within the framework of the wider Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the national strategic framework for the five-year period 2005-2010. The PASDEP represents the second phase of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process begun under the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Programme (SDPRP), which covered the period from 2000/01 to 2003/04. The core objectives of the Food Security Programme are to: (i) enable about five to six million chronically food insecure people to attain food security within the coming 3 years and (ii) improve significantly the food security situation of up to ten million additional food insecure people within three to five years time. The programme has two underlying principles: a reliance on helping farmers to use their own resources to overcome food insecurity, both through agricultural improvements and diversification of off-farm income sources, and a shift away from reliance on foreign food aid.

In Ethiopia, food insecurity has conventionally been understood in terms of recurrent food crises and responses to food insecurity have been dominated by emergency food-based interventions. However, not all food insecure households have the same characteristics. On one side, there are households who face transitory and unpredictable food deficits because of erratic weather conditions or other livelihood shocks. On the other side, some households face chronic and more predictable food deficits, caused by agricultural production constraints and poverty. Building on this conceptual distinction between the two typologies of food insecure families, in January 2005 the Government of Ethiopia has launched the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) as the main component of the Food Security Programme. The PSNP represents a significant transformation of the Government’s food security policy, moving away from responding to chronic hunger through emergency appeals and food aid delivery toward the establishment of a productive safety net system. PSNP’s objectives are the reduction of household vulnerability, the improvement of household and community resilience to shocks, and breaking the cycle of dependence on food aid.

Under the PSNP scheme, the chronic food insecure families receive cash or food transfers, either ‘for work’ (through a public work programme to employ beneficiaries in building roads and other infrastructures) or ‘for free’ (called “direct support”), on a regular and predictable basis for a period of five years, with financial and technical support on a multi-annual basis. The provision of cash transfers rather than food intends to help households to meet immediate consumption needs while protecting their assets. In this way, the provision of cash is designed to increase flexibility over consumption decisions, avoiding assets depletion, and to stimulate the development of local economies and rural markets. Together with complementary interventions, such as livelihoods packages, cash transfers are to enable households to escape from chronic food insecurity, after which they will no longer receive any social assistance, except during emergencies.

The first phase of the PSNP has been completed in December 2006, during which period the necessary institutional structures, implementation capacity, financing modalities and financial management systems were put in place. During the first semester of 2006, a total of about 7.2 million beneficiaries received cash or food transfers in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, Afar, Harari and Dire Dawa. At the beginning of the 2006, 64 percent of the beneficiaries have received cash and 36 percent food. However, this proportion has gradually shifted from cash to food and, at the end of the first semester of 2006, about 55 percent of the beneficiaries received food transfer while only 45 percent received cash. This change has been essentially driven by the fact that the entire capital and administrative budget has been transferred during the first rounds of disbursement as well as by the preference in many woredas to receive food as a consequence of the high food prices. Almost 6 million beneficiaries have participated in public work, while only 1.4 million were recipients of direct support. The major activities undertaken as public works include soil and water conservation, water harvesting, small-scale irrigation, reforestation, rural infrastructure development, horticultural development and water supply schemes.

The second phase of PSNP will begin in the first quarter of 2007 with a budget of about US$645 million. This phase will continue the implementation of the main programme components and address other issues such as strengthening governance and transparency, improving efficiency and predictability of transfers, catalyzing environmental transformation and discussing the medium-term financial sustainability of the PSNP.

2.4 Agricultural sector policies

Since the early 1990s, in order to pursue agricultural growth, the Government has adopted the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) policy that primarily focused on the intensification of production systems. After the initial approaches of market liberalization and public investments to promote the adoption of new technologies (as improved seeds and fertilizers), the current agricultural policy is still based on the ADLI framework but, within the PASDEP, it shows a shift in strategy toward a more market-oriented agriculture, either at national than international level, and the promotion of private investments. As reported in the PASDEP, the main instruments to achieve these objectives are: (i) the construction of farm-to-market roads; (ii) the development of agricultural credit markets, (iii) the implementation of specialized extension services for differentiated agricultural zones and types of commercial agriculture; (iv) the development of national business plans for specialized export crops (such as spices, cut flowers, fruits and vegetables); (v) the increase of irrigated area through multi-purpose dams; (vi) the adoption of measures to improve land tenure security; (vii) the introduction of reforms to improve the availability of fertilizer and seeds.

2.4.1 Agricultural credit

The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) is the largest source of agricultural credit in the country. Currently, more than 2.5 million farmers, accounting for 25 percent of total smallholder agriculture, obtain credit annually for the purchase of inputs, mainly fertilizer. The bulk of this credit is provided by commercial banks with the intervention of the state governments to underwrite the loans. During 2005/06, CBE has approved almost Birr 1.4 billion of agricultural input loans based on credit requests submitted by the regional governments of Oromia, Amhara, SNNP, Tigray and Addis Ababa. As reported in Table 3, the amount of agricultural credit approved and disbursed in 2005/06 is the highest in the last five years. The interest rate on these loans is 7.5 percent shared between the CBE which receives 5.25 percent on the disbursed amounts and regional governments which receive 2.25 percent for loan disbursement, recovery and administrative charges.

Table 3 – Agricultural credit

2.4.2 Fertilizer balance

Ethiopia totally depends on imports to meet its annual fertilizer demand. The foreign exchange needed for fertilizer importation is financed through loans, donor assistant (grants) and government treasury. Hence, precision in planning and fine-tuning of marketing activities is necessary to ensure timely imports and supplies. The fertilizer sector has been deregulated and opened for private competition since the mid 1990s. Following the issuance of the fertilizer policy, the pan-territorial fertilizer pricing system was eliminated and subsidies were removed. However, aware of the strategic role of the fertilizer sector in achieving self-sufficiency and alleviate poverty, the government of Ethiopia is still involved in the sector by making credit available to farmers and encourage more fertilizer use. In 2005/06, total fertilizer availability amounted to 521 000 metric tonnes comprising 386 000 metric tonnes of new imports and 135 000 metric tonnes of carry-over stocks. The state-owned Agricultural Input Supply Enterprise (AISE) and the two private trading companies (Ambassel and Wondo) have dominated the fertilizer sector over the previous years, holding about 80 percent of the market. However, since 2005 several cooperative unions have started to operate on a regional basis, importing about 180 000 metric tonnes of fertilizers. Currently farmers’ cooperative unions provide about 56 percent of national supply of DAP and urea and they are also involved in the distribution of a significant quantity of fertilizer.

Table 4 – 2005/06 Fertilizer Balance (tonnes)

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2006

3.1 General

In Ethiopia, more than 14 million hectares are presently being farmed to produce cereals, pulses and a plethora of other crops. Of these, only some 190 000 ha are irrigated, therefore, every year, the nation’s 9 million peasant farmers stand hostages to the fortune of the quality and quantity of the variable annual rains. Consequently, production at the national level varies dramatically from year to year particularly in marginal areas located predominantly in the north and east of the country and low-lying valleys and rain-shadows throughout the main production zones of the central highland plateaux.

The crops grown during the minor season, belg (planted in February and March and harvested up to and including August) and the major season, meher (planted from April-May onwards and harvested up to January) are diverse and follow the complicated mosaic of agro-ecologies that are derived from a combination of the usual rainfall for the locality, soil types ranging from vertisols to sand and altitudes ranging from more than 3 000m to less than 600m above sea level.

The main cereal staples wheat, barley, teff, maize, sorghum and finger millet, are grown in varying proportions according to the parameters noted above conditioned by the traditional culture and prevailing market conditions. Carbohydrate sources other than cereals include the stem of enset or false-banana (Enset ventriculosum), cassava, sweet potatoes and potatoes all of which are found mostly in either the middle altitude or highland areas of the southern–central regions of the country. Cash crops include oilseeds, coffee, chat¹, eucalyptus, and spices. The tree crops are grown in forests and plantations and as hedgerows, on-farm woodlots/orchards throughout the country in the middle altitude and highland areas.

In the western, eastern and southern lowlands and fore-mentioned valley bottoms and escarpments indigenous grasses and browse support both settled and transhumant livestock. Of particular importance to the national economy are the agro-pastoralist/pastoralist herds and flocks in the Regions of Afar and Somali. Similar pastoralist systems are also found in the southern zones of Oromiya Region viz Bale and Borena, South Omo in SNNPR and in the western lowland forest-savannahs that stretch from Gambella, via the Regions of Benshangul-Gumuz and western Amhara to Tigray. National livestock production from such pastoral areas is augmented by the settled agro-pastoralism of peasant farmers throughout the central plateaux where common grasslands, comprising indigenous grasses and clovers, provide intensively grazed pasture, which, coupled with browse and crop residues provide the feed for the livestock in mixed farming systems producing sheep, goat and beef and dairy cow products for sale and home use and for the ubiquitous oxen that provide the draught power for major peasant farming operations² viz ploughing, secondary cultivation, and threshing and some transportation of goods and commodities.

3.2 Rainfall in 2006

As noted above, rainfall in Ethiopia occurs in two distinct seasons: (i) the belg³, the minor rains that usually begin in February and end in April-May supporting short cycle crops that will be harvested at the end of the rains and longer cycle crops that will be harvested up to September; and (ii) the meher⁴, the main rains supporting crops planted and harvested in the meher season⁵, which usually start in June-July and ends in September-October. In some ten zones in the south-central and northern parts of the country, belg rains are regular enough in most years to support belg harvests which usually provide contributions to the household food economies equivalent to or greater than the meher harvests. In a further twenty zones, belg harvests sometimes occur. Elsewhere, the belg rains offer the opportunity for land preparation and planting of late-maturing varieties of maize, sorghum and finger-millet, as well as stimulating new growth in the pasture and browse after the dry season, so providing a much needed “early-bite”. The melding of belg and meher rains in the south-west zones often generates one long season without clear-cut breaks, which although good for perennial crops and the long-maturing cereal varieties, is less than ideal for the belg sown straw crops.

In 2006, the belg rains started on time in all the major southern belg producing zones except Borena (where they were several weeks late and delivered less rain than usual) and followed their expected pattern. In the north/north-eastern zones, in the low-lying valleys of West Shoa and in similar locations in the eastern Oromiya zones of West and East Haraghe, they are noted to have started a week or so later than usual. Excessive belg rains are reported to have caused the destruction of 600 ha of crops in both Wolaita and Hadiya zones, a loss which although locally disturbing, fails to make an impact on the 2 million ha estimated to have been planted in 2006 compared to 1.5 million ha reported by the CFSAM in 2005. The overall rainfall situation was, therefore, more favourable than the previous year, a feature which is reflected in the good belg harvest summarised in Section 3.8 below.

Regarding the meher season, the Mission was provided with comprehensive rainfall data from the National Meteorological Agency from all the weather stations for 2006. Further, the seven Mission teams dispatched throughout the country to determine agriculture production and conditions, collected qualitative and quantitative rainfall data from all zones and woredas visited. The variable nature of the rainfall inherent in the semi-arid areas of Ethiopia means that in any zone and in any year there are always communities, particularly in the lowlands, that experience less than satisfactory rainfall. In 2006, such areas are noted to be fewer than the previous year. The combined returns confirm that in 59⁶ of the 64 zones and special woredas visited by Mission teams, meher rains were considered to be as “good” or “normal” that is to say the rains conformed to the expected pattern, they began on time, they were heavy in July and August, were reasonably evenly distributed and have been extended, in many localities, up to the Mission field visits in November and December. In the 5 zones/special woredas where less than satisfactory reports were filed, the meher rains began later than expected, were erratic and finished early. Such reports were filed by BoARD offices in Borena and Guji, West Haraghe in the south and in Humera and Tanqua-Abergele, Tigray. The normally sparse rainfall patterns of the agricultural areas in Afar Zone 2 (Ab Alla) and Mehoni and to a lesser extent Alamata (South Tigray) were more than adequately supplemented by an impressive series of spates⁷ throughout the meher season. Heavy rains and flooding did cause the need for more than one replanting in some areas particularly in Gode and Afder Zones, Somali Region. Consequently, the Mission notes that at the national level:

• Maize planting, indicative of good early rains, has been sustained at the elevated level reported the previous year.

• Sorghum planting, equally connected to good early rains, has increased by 6 percent and, more generally.

• The mid/late season planting of wheat, barley and teff has also increased over the previous years’ estimates, in part⁸ because of the continuation of encouraging rainfall throughout the season in most areas.

As was reported the previous year, the continuation of the rains into October and early November also encouraged late, opportunistic planting of short-cycle pulse crops such as chick peas and grass peas and niche cereals such as sassa barley and wanza sorghum and is supporting their development, adding a further positive aspect to the season. Notwithstanding increased probability of seed drop in the un-harvested teff crop in East Gojam and elsewhere, the intermittent rains in late November and December are considered, on balance, more likely to have positive effects than negative effects.

• In Tigray, harvesting campaigns, conducted as a precaution against possible storm-related losses, have secured all vulnerable crops, including the extensive sesame crop in the West Zone.

• Elsewhere in the north, the harvests of short-cycle crops were either completed or well- advanced at the time of the Mission.

• Further, the highly productive sorghum crops of Southern Tigray, North Wollo, South Wollo and Oromiya zones are being bunched and tied-up to protect the heads against lodging under the effects of inclement weather if storms were to persist.

• In the cases of late-planted sassa barley in East Tigray, the sorghum in North-West Tigray and North Gondar and the late planted barley and pulses throughout Awi zone, crop production will only benefit from any continued precipitation.

• In the south, the main barley and wheat harvests are over, any un-harvested maize crops are unlikely to be affected and a wide range of perennial crops and annual root crops will only benefit substantially from the continued rains.

Regarding the effect of rainfall on pasture and browse, the good belg rain stimulated early growth and the heavy and persistent meher and deyr rains have sustained the development of forage throughout the year in all parts of the country.

3.3 Area planted

Agricultural data in Ethiopia is derived from two sources, (i) data emanating from the Central Statistics Authority (CSA) under their official mandate to provide comprehensive statistical data on agriculture through the organisation and implementation of sample surveys; and (ii) data collected at grassroots level, at ploughing, sowing and harvesting time from the whole farming community by the Development Agents (DAs) of the Bureaux of Agriculture and Rural Development (BoARD). These BoARD data are processed through a hierarchical series of steps from the DA areas (called tabia / kebelles / peasants’ associations, depending on region) via woredas and zones to the regional BoARD offices for use by agricultural specialists in their day-to-day activities. In the past, the two data sets have differed significantly with regard to area, a characteristic noted regularly in CFSAMs since 1994. Hitherto, it has been the latter data set that forms the basis of the CFSAMs, as such data are:

• collected by the established government partner to the Mission (Federal MoARD);

• available at the time of the Mission at all entry points⁹ and

• presented to the Mission in their original form.

The data are then discussed at each entry point and cleaned, collated, audited by CFSAM teams and where necessary, adjusted by the CFSAM agronomists prior to final inclusion in CFSAM report. The local woreda BoARD data are also used in the DPPA/WFP Meher Needs Assessments¹⁰ that form the basis of the annual food aid requirements, a summary of which provides the statistics for the WFP component of the CFSAM Special Reports.

In 2006, for the second time, the seven Mission teams received from CSA, estimates of area planted in the 2006 meher season by zone and by crop for their respective entry-points, these being estimates of the crop areas sown by private peasant land-holders from a fresh list in 2006 and based on the Ethiopian Agricultural Sample Enumeration 2001-2. The area data, based on the preliminary returns of the 2006 Agricultural Sample Survey of 62 000 households selected from 2072 Enumeration Areas (EA) do not include the area sown by the large-scale commercial farmers. While the estimates are considered by CSA to account for some 96 percent of the land farmed in Ethiopia, the Regional BoARDs in most regions consider that the data do not represent their regional farming activities due to the omissions noted above and the sampling procedures adopted. The exception to this is Amhara Region. Following discussions at Federal level three years ago, the Amhara Regional Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development (BoARD) embraced the use of CSA area data. In 2006, in a new development, the Amhara Regional BoARD issued instructions to their Zonal Offices to use an adjusted version of such data, prepared at Regional level, as the envelope for their own crop estimates.

As noted in the previous year, it should be understood that the BoARD data to which this report refers, are “actual.” They refer to areas actually sown and are markedly different from the “planning data” prepared by the regional BoARD specialists in response to regional policies and used as targets for farming related programmes and other activities. During the key informant interviews with BoARD staff, Mission teams identified both the “planned” and “actual” data sets and selected only the “actual” sown area data for use in the area compilation after adjustment, if needed. Regarding the collection of the “actual” data–set the process used was confirmed during the Mission to be as follows:

• In all cases other than Amhara, Regional (BOARD) data originates from Development Agents (DAs)¹¹ based at Peasants’ Association (PA) level throughout the country.

• The DAs working through the farmer team-leaders of the 30 household head administrative units (known variously as Mengistu Guden, Lemhat Gujele, or Lemhat Gere), collect the annual crop ploughing/sowing/harvesting data and yield estimates, from all farmers farming in their domains.

• These data, collected in local units, are translated into international units, collated and passed to the woreda crop experts by the DAs for cleaning, verification and onward passage to the zonal experts.

• In all regions except Tigray, the zonal experts clean the figures and pass them forward to the Regional Bureaux¹².

• The Mission collects such data at the zonal level in all regions visited except Tigray, where there are no Zonal Agricultural Offices. In the latter case, the Mission is provided with original woreda data by the Senior Agricultural Officer of the Region for review and auditing/adjustment. The resulting files are then re-aggregated, by the Mission, into zonal clusters for time-series comparison purposes.

• In addition, the Mission teams collect data on area and production of farming companies, investors, and resettled farmers either from the BoARD offices or from original sources.

Notwithstanding the fact that a joint CSA-MoARD-FAO-EU programme was established during 2006 to resolve area differences, the Mission estimates for the 2006 meher harvest are again based on data collected from the BoARD offices as no resolution has been achieved so far. Table 5 below presents the regional level cereal and pulse area differences between the two data sets in 2006.

Table 5 - Comparison of area estimates of cereals and pulses in 2006/07 meher season (‘000 ha)