S P E C I A L  R E P O R T

FAO/WFP ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF 2007 FLOODS ON FOOD AND AGRICULTURE IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN UGANDA

18 January 2008

• HIGHLIGHTS
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND AGRICULTURE SECTOR CONTEXT
• 3. THE 2007 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN FLOOD-AFFECTED AREAS
• 4. Livestock and animal health
• 5. FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION
• 6. household food security
• 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
• Annex 1 - Food prices and changes in selected districts (October - November 2007)
• Annex 2 - Estimated population needing food assistance in affected sub-counties
• Annex 3 – Sub counties covered by the findings of the CFSAM report
• Annex 4 – Map of flood affected areas

HIGHLIGHTS

1. OVERVIEW

Eastern and Northern Uganda experienced heavy rains during the three months of July, August and September 2007 that resulted in severe floods in many locations. At the height of the floods in September, many rivers burst their banks and could not be crossed on foot, some bridges were washed away and roads became impassable. In the worst affected areas some schools, health centres, homes and other infrastructures were destroyed or badly damaged and many families were displaced and forced to seek shelter in school buildings on higher ground. Emergency responses by the Uganda Government and humanitarian agencies included provision of temporary shelter, food, drinkable water, sanitation facilities, medicines, and even helicopters and boats to assist those stranded. As the floods began to subside and movement improved, however, it was felt by the Government and its development partners that there was an urgent need to ascertain the extent of flood damage to the food and agriculture sector. For this reason, the Government requested the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) in late September to assist in carrying out an assessment of the impact of the floods on food production and household food security in the affected areas. The target areas were to be Eastern and Northern Regions.

In response, the two agencies jointly fielded a three-week crop and food supply assessment mission (CFSAM) to Uganda, starting on 23 October 2007. The mission was joined by an officer from the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM), another from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) and two officers from the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System (FEWS-Net). In addition, FAO’s Country Office seconded two staff members to the mission. All these officers participated fully in the assessment and their contributions are gratefully acknowledged. At district level, local staff of the Department of Agriculture, as well as local FAO Emergency Coordinators, accompanied the mission on field visits.

The first four days were spent in Kampala collecting secondary data, planning field visits and meeting relevant officials from government, UN agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). In the field starting on 28 October, the mission commenced with Teso sub-region, then moved on to Lira District where it divided into two after the assessment, with one sub-team going to Karamoja sub-region and the other sequentially covering the districts of Pader, Kitgum and Gulu.

The method of work was as follows. At each district headquarters the mission first held a meeting with the political leadership, i.e. the Local Council V (LCV) Chairman often accompanied by the Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) and senior technical staff such as the District Agricultural Officer (DAO) and District Veterinary Officer (DVO). Here the mission obtained an overview of the impact of floods in the district, with a ranking of affected sub-counties from worst affected to least affected. This was followed by a meeting with staff of UN agencies and NGOs resident in the district. Then, accompanied by the DAO and local emergency coordinators, the mission divided into sub-teams and travelled to the sub-counties. The first meeting at that level was held with the sub-county chief together with the Local Council III (LCIII) chairman accompanied by local councillors. A local briefing was received and a first general interview was conducted. The teams then fanned out to interview farmers at random and to inspect crops. Common checklists/questionnaires were used as instruments for collecting information. Furthermore, price data was collected from local markets. On returning to Kampala, a debriefing meeting was held on 14 November attended by representatives of the government, the donor community, UN agencies and NGOs.

The main findings of the mission are summarized below:

Commodity price analysis leads to the main conclusion that from an agricultural and food security standpoint and as far as the impact of 2007 floods is concerned, Amuria and Katakwi Districts in Teso sub-region were the worst affected and urgently need assistance. The two districts are extensively covered by swampy and low-lying areas and are generally of flat terrain. As a consequence, they serve as a water ‘sink’ for water flowing from surrounding higher areas of Kabong, Moroto, Kotido and Nakapiripit districts in Karamoja sub-region. Moreover, their soils are of low water permeability, which maintains high ground water levels. Thus, with the excessively high rainfall in 2007, serious flooding was inevitable.

Karamoja is next in need of assistance, but not mainly because of floods. The sub-region has been in the grip of insecurity for some time, which has curtailed cropping and livestock activities. Moreover, harvests in 2006 were poor due to drought. A severe attack of honeydew this year on the main staple, sorghum, and falling livestock prices due to unfavourable supply/demand conditions have compounded the food security problems. Thus, where they occurred, floods only aggravated an already precarious food security situation. The suggestion for food assistance for Karamoja, in this document, is only for areas where people’s vulnerability worsened due to floods. There might be relief food needs beyond these areas in Karamoja, for which a separate needs assessment should be undertaken.

Flood damage in the Northern Region, as far as food and agriculture are concerned, was not significant. Crop damage was limited to edges of swamps and rivers and was quite localized. Planting during the 2007 second season has been normal, with increasing numbers of returnees engaged in crop production since early 2007. Food prices are stable or declining compared to last year, reflecting increased supplies on the market, particularly in Acholi sub-region. The Northern Region therefore does not require additional food assistance over and above the ongoing food aid programmes for IDPs. However, certain parishes in the sub-counties of Abako, Omoro, Aloi, Apala, Oromo, Olilim and Okwang in Lira District need food assistance for immediate relief and at the same time close monitoring in the coming months would suggest future response strategy, based on market recovery and the extent of second harvest (in January-February 2008), particularly in these worst affected sub counties.

Food balance sheets for Amuria and Katakwi for the period July 2007 to June 2008 indicate that Amuria would have a deficit of 16 419 tonnes of cereals, 27 743 tonnes of roots and tubers while Katakwi would have a cereal deficit of around 3 315 tonnes but small surpluses in roots and tubers and pulses. The shortfalls are relatively small and can be imported by businesspeople from other districts, but the crucial limiting factor will be the purchasing power of the local population. Many households in both Amuria and Katakwi suffered total losses of some crops, especially cassava, sweet potato and groundnuts, and need to be immediately identified and targeted for assistance. Food assistance, in the form of General Food Distribution (GFD) is suggested as an immediate need for the survival of the people in the worst affected sub counties. Cash and food for work activities could be implemented in Acholi where market supplies are stable. These activities should target the flood affected returnees and those in transition to facilitate the return process. Cassava cuttings, sweet potato vines and some seeds (especially groundnuts) will need to be provided directly to targeted families.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND AGRICULTURE SECTOR CONTEXT

2.1 General

Administratively, Uganda is divided into regions, districts, counties, sub-counties and parishes. Teso and Karamoja sub-regions fall in Eastern Region, while the districts of Lira, Pader, Kitgum and Gulu fall in Northern Region. These were the areas affected by the 2007 excessive rains and/or floods at varying intensities. Elsewhere in Uganda, the situation was normal, with a relatively good agricultural season. Nationally, therefore, the food security situation is quite favourable. Food shortfalls in the affected regions can be covered by imports from elsewhere in the country. The table below gives some indicators of the socio-economic conditions prevailing in Uganda¹.

Table 1 - Basic Fact and Socio-Economic Indicators about Uganda

The population of Uganda is growing rapidly, at an estimated average annual rate of 3.4 percent between 1992 and 2002. Employment opportunities are quite limited, and the rate of unemployment is therefore high. At a per capita income of around US $280, Uganda is one of the poorest countries in the world. In terms of socio-economic development, it was ranked 145^th out of 177 countries according to UNDP’s 2006 Human Development Index (HDI).

In 2006 the populations of the Eastern Region and the Northern Region (including Karamoja sub-region) were estimated at 25.82 percent and 22.12 percent of the national population respectively.

2.2 Agricultural sector and policy

Agriculture contributed to about 32 percent of the total GDP in 2005. Although this contribution has been declining over the years, the sector has continued to dominate production in national economy. About 80 percent Uganda’s population depend primarily on agriculture for their livelihoods. The majority of households classified as being ‘poor’ are engaged in the agricultural sector. In order to move towards eradicating poverty, there is an urgent need to improve agricultural productivity by increasing the effectiveness of service provision in the sector as spelt out in the Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture (PMA). A mid-term evaluation of the PMA carried out in mid-2005, concluded that rural poverty is most effectively addressed through promoting the commercialization of agriculture and, in particular, that the Plan’s basic function of serving as a coordinating framework for the provision of support services and public goods in rural areas should be maintained. This conclusion remains valid today. But the review noted that there had been confusion over the function of the PMA, and that insufficient attention had been paid to overcoming some of the identified constraints and weaknesses in implementation, which needed to be addressed.

The mission’s field observations clearly indicated that yields of staple food crops remain low. Plausible explanations include declining soil fertility, low or non-use of productivity enhancing technologies and poor land management practices. Furthermore, the planned modernization of Uganda’s agriculture has not been widely implemented mainly due to resource constraints. The main programmes for agricultural modernization - the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) and District Agricultural Extension Services - are said to face important institutional and operational challenges. In addition to these shortcomings of national agricultural policies that impact all regions of Uganda, the flood affected north-eastern regions also suffer from insecurity and lack of access to land and inputs for cultivation, and from the resulting low purchasing power of the households.

2.3 Social and Humanitarian Context

Uganda’s Human Development Index has increased steadily since 1995. The country ranks 145 out of 177 countries worldwide. HIV prevalence has been reduced from 18 percent in 1993 to 6.4 percent in 2005. Progress has also been made on reaching the hunger target for Millennium Development Goal 1. The prevalence of undernurition decreased from 24 to 19 percent between 1990 and 2000².

However, recurrent extended dry spell and ongoing violence in the Karamoja sub-region of Northeastern Uganda have left many people highly food insecure. In Northern Uganda, 21 years of civil war led to more than 1.2 million people being internally displaced. These people are living in squalid camps and transit sites with limited access to their homes.

As a result, conditions in these areas are among the poorest in the country. HIV prevalence in the IDP camps is 12 percent or almost double the national average (6.4 percent). Over 27 percent of women in the camps and in Karamoja have experienced sexual violence³. The ratio of health workers to the population ranges from 1:4000 in Acholi and Lango to 1:2500 in Karamoja⁴. The school dropout rate in the North is nearly 21 percent and is compounded by afternoon absenteeism, which is partly due to hunger⁵. Basic infrastructure, such as feeder roads that link the villages to the nearest markets, needs to be rehabilitated. And concentrated populations in IDP camps and resettlement areas have contributed to environmental degradation. National deforestation rates now exceed 500 square-kilometres per year⁶.

In recent years, though, important signs of possible change have emerged. In Northern Uganda, the initiation of peace talks in Juba, Sudan between the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and Government of Uganda in 2006 has rekindled hope for a resolution to this longstanding conflict. However, a large part of the country has experienced an increase in natural disasters, reflecting in part the impact of climate change. Uganda had five droughts between 1991 and 2000 as compared to only eight in the previous 80 years. The worst flooding in decades also affected large portions of the North and Northeast in 2007.

In October 2007, the Government launched its Peace, Recovery and Development Plan (PRDP) for the Acholi, Teso, Lango and Karamoja sub-regions. The programme aims to mobilise human and financial resources to the conflict-affected districts. It has four strategic objectives: consolidation of state authority, rebuilding and empowering of communities, revitalization of the economy, and peace building and reconciliation. It made specific provisions for humanitarian assistance and community recovery. The PRDP functions within the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP 2004) developed to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Based on the Flash Appeal Progress Update, as of 30 November 2007, prepared by OCHA, the following table shows the various assistance related to food security that were provided to the flood affected people.

Table 2 - Progress of food security assistance delivered to the flood affected persons

3. THE 2007 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN FLOOD-AFFECTED AREAS

3.1 Rainfall conditions

The first growing season was characterized by a late onset of rains (mid-late April); an early onset of dry spell (June) and an unusual onset of heavy and persistent rains. Unusually heavy rainfall during July – September 2007 led to severe flooding and water-logging across many parts of eastern, central and northern Uganda. Most regions have been experiencing peak rains characterised by outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms reaching flood levels in several locations. The peak rains continued to late October. There was above normal rains over most parts of these regions.

The outlook for the period October to January 2008 is based on the current evolution the La Nina episode, which occurs when sea surface temperatures over eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean are significantly cooler than normal. The rains are expected to continue, punctuated with dry spells, over Lake Victoria Basin, Central and Western Uganda up to mid December 2007.

The Eastern Central region which includes Soroti has been receiving above-normal rains since July with floods seriously affecting localized areas. Most northern and eastern districts, particularly Katakwi and Amuria, recorded high rainfall amounts that sustained flooding conditions. Rainfall amounts were also above normal over many parts of central Uganda resulting in floods and water logging. Due to these conditions, soil moisture considerably increased in 2007 compared to the 2006 situation. However, pockets of below normal rains were observed in Rakai and Jinja districts.

The direct consequences of floods and water logging in terms of increased soil moisture have been the destruction of crops in the affected areas, huge post-harvest crop losses from the first season, and difficulties in opening land for the second season planting in those locations.

3.2 Crop production

Except for Karamoja, crops in Uganda are generally produced in two seasons: the "long rainy season” with crops planted in March-April and harvested in July-August; and the "short rainy season” with crops usually planted in August-September and harvested in December/February. The main crops are cereals (sorghum, millet, maize, and rice), root crops (cassava, sweet potato, Irish potato), groundnuts, pulses (beans, peas, green grams), oilseeds (sesame, sunflower), plantain (matooke) and others (coffee, cotton, tea, vegetables).

A major difficulty faced by the mission was a lack of reliable agricultural statistics nationwide and at the district/sub-county levels, which seriously constrain agricultural planning and programming activities. When available, data are of poor quality, and some can be misleading. There is an urgent need for a systematic agricultural data generating mechanism, including the carrying out of the agricultural census, the assessment of seasonal production of field crops and livestock, and periodic field surveys to build a time series data base. This problem was underlined in the 1997 CFSAM with important recommendations; the present mission feels that the problem should be highlighted again.

Figure 1 - Uganda: September 2007 rainfall compared to long term mean (LTM)

Figure 2 - Uganda: Monthly rainfall (mm) in selected areas in 2007 compared with 2006 and long term mean

Figure 3 - Soil moisture in 2007 compared to 2006 in Karamoja region

For the reasons given in the Overview and in Section 5, the rest of this report largely focuses on Amuria and Katakwi, the two districts worst affected by floods. Field observations confirmed that in most districts visited, except Amuria and Katakwi, extensive second season planting was observed. Also, long-cycle sorghum and pigeon peas planted earlier in May/June were still growing well. This is a good agronomic indicator of minimal flood damage elsewhere than in Amuria and Katakwi.

3.2.1 Estimation of 2007 first season production in Amuria and Katakwi

The 2007 production forecast is based on available data from government sources in Kampala and at the district level, and on field observations about areas planted, areas lost to floods and crop yields. Crosschecking this information, the mission worked out the first harvest production figures shown in Table 3 for Amuria District and Table 4 for Katakwi.

Table 3 - Amuria District: Estimated production first season 2007

Table 4 - Katakwi District: Estimated production first season 2007

3.2.2 Estimation of 2007-second season production

Following widespread destruction of first season production by floods, shortages of seed for 2007 second planting and for 2008 growing season were widely reported during farmer interviews. The second season crops which were planted mainly consist of millet, cowpea, green gram, groundnuts, and sweet potato. Most farmers still have first season cassava growing in the field but with no tubers. In all situations, crops planted are growing well. It is assumed that in Amuria and Katakwi Districts, farmers have compensated the acreages lost during the first planting season by planting those important food crops during the second season, except cassava, which was not widely planted because cuttings were scarce despite some distribution by FAO during early November. Using this assumption, which was corroborated by field observations, the expected second season production was estimated as indicated in Table 5 for Amuria and Table 6 for Katakwi.

Table 5 - Amuria District: Expected production second season planting 2007

Table 6 - Katakwi District: Estimated production second season planting 2007

3.2.3 Estimation of total production 2007

The estimated total production for Amuria is given in Table 7 and for Katakwi in Table 8.

Table 7 - Amuria: Total production from first and second planting 2007

Table 8 - Katakwi: Total production from first and second planting 2007

4. Livestock and animal health

4.1 General

Again, very little reliable baseline information exists for livestock and pastures. This poses enormous difficulties when planning any types of interventions and knowing what intervention is the most appropriate and to whom.

The heavy rains and floods also affected livestock, although the number of deaths reported was insignificant. The effects ranged from increases in disease incidences and vector infestation (including from ticks, worms, mites and black flies) to destruction of animal structures and shelters. Diseases mentioned included coccidiosis, lumpy skin disease, mange, foot rot, ‘Peste des Petits Ruminants’ (PPR) and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP). Other effects were cold stress, physical injury of animals and washing away of young birds. Some cases of deaths, especially of goats were also reported. However, unlike crops where losses could be assessed, the number of livestock lost as a direct result of floods could not be verified. However, during field visits the mission observed that livestock were in good body condition due to an abundance of water and pastures.

4.2 Impact of conflicts on farming and livestock in northern regions

A key issue in Karamoja region is general insecurity, which limits access to field crops gardens and restricts the keeping of livestock in neighbouring districts. Because of negative impact on farming, food security of most households has been affected and their vulnerability increased. In fact, the household vulnerability is caused by a wide range of complex and interacting factors such as cattle related conflicts, in particular commercialised intra-community cattle resulting in conflict over control and access of scarce grazing and water resources. Further, since the introduction of use of protected kraals, it was reported that access to oxen and cows for milking has been a problem leading to loss in time for cultivation and grazing and to reduced productivity. A recent survey conducted by FAO Emergency Coordination Unit (Kampala) in all 54 sub-counties of Amuru, Gulu, Kitgum and Pader districts, within the conflict-affected areas of Acholi sub-region, confirmed that insecurity is among the most important constraints to production in the neighbouring areas to Karamoja region.

5. FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION

Teso sub-region was more affected by the floods than the northern region and Karamoja sub-region. However, within Teso sub-region which consists of six districts, only two districts, namely Amuria and Katakwi, were the hardest hit. This was mainly due to their very flat terrain and vast wetlands which render them vulnerable to flooding. Crop losses in these two districts were therefore quite high. The rest of the districts were marginally affected, except in localized low-lying parts. In particular, some parishes in Malera and Koril sub-counties of Bukedea District experienced serious flooding. In the northern region, Lira District was the most affected by flooding, but only in the low-lying sub-counties bordering Amuria District in Teso sub-region. Elsewhere in the north and northeast, the situation could be better described as water logging due to excessive rains rather than flooding, except along river courses, depressions and swamps where flooding occurred. Direct crop losses were thus limited, but yields are likely to have been reduced by water logging.

At the time of field visits by the mission, most roads were dry and passable and the mission was able to reach virtually all the locations on its itinerary. Markets were rebounding, and market surveys were undertaken in several of them in order to ascertain the impact of the floods, if any, on market conditions.

5.1 Market prices

5.1.1 Teso sub-region

A system of market days is maintained in rural areas of Teso whereby an open market is held at a designated location on a specific day of the week. Efforts were made to visit such markets where possible and collect price data. In a few cases where this was not possible, a group of local people, including local councillors (many of them women), was interviewed. The focus was on information about current prices of major food staples compared to prices a year ago – i.e. November 2007 compared to November 2006. Amuria, Katakwi and Bukedea were targeted for the surveys, since they suffered most from the floods.

Amuria district

Tables 9 (a) and (b) show price changes in two rural markets in Amuria District.

Table 9 - Amuria - Price changes for basic staples: Nov. 2007 over Nov. 2006

(a) Abarilela Market

(b) Obalanga Market

Abarilela market is located in the south-eastern corner of Amuria while Obalanga is located in the north-west, near Amuria-Lira border. Obalanga is actually a regional market with commodities coming in from the northern region (Lira, Pader, etc), as well as from Soroti and Karamoja. At the time of the visit the market was booming. On the other hand, Abarilela is quite isolated and was rather subdued with a limited range of food commodities on offer at the time of the visit. These spatial characteristics largely explain the differentials in price changes. Nevertheless, food prices have risen sharply in both markets compared to their levels a year ago. The increase mainly reflects the impact of the floods on the food supply situation in Amuria District. Price increases of such magnitude as indicated for food staples have very serious implications for food security at the household level. Basically, they translate into reduced real incomes of families as consumers and, in the absence of alternative sources of income, reduced food intake and malnutrition.

Katakwi district

Tables 10 (a) and (b) show price changes in Katakwi District.

Table 10 - Katakwi - Price Changes for Basic Staples: Nov.2007 over Nov. 2006

(a) Magoro Market

(b) Usuk Parish

Magoro market is located in the extreme south-eastern part of Katakwi District, while Usuk parish is in central Katakwi, about 10 kilometres north of Katakwi Town Council Headquarters. As mentioned earlier, Katakwi was as severely affected by floods as Amuria. Prices in both markets are much higher than a year ago, reflecting diminished supplies. Cassava prices have risen more sharply in Usuk (67 percent) than in Magoro (12 percent) perhaps reflecting higher demand in Usuk which is close to the semi-urban Town Council Headquarters. In both places, however, prices of sorghum and groundnuts, two important complementary staples, must be beyond the reach of most families.

Bukedea district

Tables 11 (a) and (b) show price changes in two areas of Bukedea District.

Table 11 - Bukedea – Price changes for basic staples: Nov.2007 over Nov. 2006

(a) Koril Trading Centre

(b) Minit Parish

Both survey areas are located in Koril sub-county, an area affected by floods in its low-lying parts. It is evident that the impact was not significant, as current prices are generally lower than or unchanged from a year ago. However, there are families whose crop fields in low-lying areas or near swamps were destroyed and who will face seed shortages for the next planting season. Second-season planting in Bukedea was normal and crops were observed to be doing well.

5.1.2 Northern Region

The districts, which had been recommended for flood damage assessment in the northern region, were Lira, Pader, Kitgum and Gulu. Accordingly, the mission extensively travelled them. Among other types of information gathered, price data was obtained from local markets in the same way as in Teso sub-region. The findings are presented below.

Lira district

Table 12 - Lira – Price changes for basic staples: Nov. 2007 over Nov. 2006 Apur Market (Adwari Sub-county)

This market is located in one of the sub-counties reported to have been much affected by floods. However, it is evident that current food prices are significantly lower than a year ago. The main reason is that large numbers of IDPs have returned to their original home areas since the beginning of 2007, and was able to plant crops leading to increased supplies on the market. In addition, flood damage was limited to fields in low-lying and swampy areas, while crops on the upland were minimally affected. Furthermore, unlike in Amuria and Katakwi in Teso, extensive second season planting was observed throughout Lira District, while long-cycle sorghum and pigeon peas planted last May/June to be harvested in December/January were observed to be doing well. This means that the food outlook for 2008 is generally favourable. However, a number of households with fields in low-lying areas lost crops and may need assistance with seeds/planting material for the next planting season in March/April.

Pader district

Table 13 – Pader: Price changes for basic staples: Nov. 2007 over Nov. 2006 (Awere Parish)

Awere sub-county, of which this parish is a part, is located in the south-western corner of the district and lies astride Aswa River. It was reported to have been much affected by flooding. However, the flooding was very localized and had minimal damage to agriculture. The price changes shown above can be explained by the same factors as for Lira District. Second season planting was normal, while long-cycle sorghum and pigeon peas were growing well. The food outlook for 2008 is generally favourable.

Kitgum district

Table 14 – Kitgum: Price changes for basic staples: Nov. 2007 over Nov. 2006

(a) Kitgum Town market

(b) Multika market (Lokung sub-county)

Multika market lies some 50 km west of Kitgum Town. Both markets indicate favourable market conditions.

Gulu district

There is a general consensus in the district that Gulu did not experience significant flooding. Only excessive rains were experienced leading to water logging in many areas which may have reduced crop yields significantly. Palero Sub-county in the north was particularly affected by water logging, causing some crop loss. Second season planting has been normal.

The table below shows food price changes in Gulu Town market.

Table 15 – Gulu: Price changes for basic staples: Nov. 2007over Nov. 2008 (Gulu Town Market)

Except for millet and sorghum whose prices were double their levels a year ago, the food supply/demand situation looks stable. Gulu Town is situated on the road to Juba (South Sudan), which does brisk trade with Uganda. Given that millet and sorghum are also major staples in South Sudan, the price changes for these crops most likely reflect growing exports to Juba. Generally, agricultural activities in Gulu District at the time of the mission’s visit were normal.

5.1.3 Karamoja sub-region

While low-lying and swampy areas of Karamoja districts, especially in Moroto, Kotido and Kabong, experienced flooding and loss of crops, the main problems for the sub-region as a whole were a late start to the 2007 planting season rains (May instead of March), a poor harvest in 2006 due to drought, general and prolonged insecurity which limits access to fields and livestock, and falling livestock prices due to physical access problems. Karamoja sub-region has a unimodal rainfall regime and therefore depends on a single season for crop production, the main food staples being long-cycle sorghum, bulrush millet, maize, groundnuts and beans. The harvest period is September/October for most crops (compared to July/August elsewhere), but because of the late onset of rains this year some crops were still in the field at the time of the mission’s visit in early November. Where flooding or water logging occurred, most crops were at an early stage of growth and suffered retarded development. A severe attack on sorghum by honeydew exacerbated the situation. These problems have combined to produce a precarious food security situation in the sub-region. Floods only contributed to an already bad situation. A price survey similar to those undertaken elsewhere was not possible, although a cattle market was visited in Moroto District. However, Oxfam GB had carried out a market survey in Kotido Town at the end of September 2007, the results of which are summarized below.

Table 16 – Kotido: Price changes for basic staples: Oct. 2007 over ‘normal’ average

Prices in Kotido were considered by the authors to be quite similar to those ruling in neighbouring Kabong District. It is notable that prices have increased significantly in Kotido, just as was observed in Amuria and Katakwi in Teso sub-region. However, the underlying factors at play are quite different, being more complex in Kotido as mentioned above.

5.2 Food supply and demand situation in Amuria and Katakwi districts

Price analysis in the foregoing sections leads to the main conclusion that from an agricultural and food security standpoint and as far as the impact of 2007 floods is concerned, Amuria and Katakwi Districts in Teso sub-region were the worst affected and urgently need assistance. Karamoja is next, but for different reasons. The northern region was the least affected except in localized areas.

Given the severe flood damage to the food and agricultural sector of both Amuria and Katakwi Districts, and despite the poor state of agricultural statistics in Uganda, an effort has been made to develop a food balance sheet for each district in order to indicate the food gap that needs to be covered until the next harvest in July 2008. It would have been better to develop a food balance sheet for each affected sub-county, but this was precluded by lack of data. Assumptions and parameters underpinning the district balance sheets are listed below:

• Population: based on the 2006 population projections by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS) and projected further to June 2008 using the same annual growth rates, the populations of Amuria and Katakwi are estimated at 275 057 and 145 331 respectively.

• Production: estimates of production are based on figures provided by the district department of agriculture, adjusted by the mission as necessary. Cropped areas lost to floods are based on estimates by the same authority. So are estimates of crop yields. Planted areas for the 2007 second season are projections by the mission.

• Per capita annual consumption rates: norms are not available in the country. However, based on FAO food balance sheets, apparent consumption rates have been adopted as follows⁷: cereals: 75kg; pulses: 26kg; roots and tubers: 210kg. These foods are assumed to provide more than 80 percent of a person’s daily calorie intake, the balance coming from fish, meat, milk, vegetables, fruits, etc.

• Post harvest losses: these losses were heavy in the two districts this year. Poor storage conditions, damp floors, inadequate sunshine and high humidity caused high losses. They are estimated as follows⁸: cereals: 20 percent; pulses and oilseeds: 30 percent; roots and tubers: 40 percent. However, these figures are considered conservative for the two districts.

• Seeding rates⁹: finger millet: 8kg/ha; sorghum: 10kg/ha; maize: 25kg/ha; rice: 100kg/ha; beans: 60kg/ha; cowpeas: 28kg/ha; groundnuts: 110kg/ha; green gram: 10kg/ha.

• Household food stocks: assumed to be close to zero at the beginning of July 2007. At the time of the mission, families were eating whatever harvest they had managed to salvage during July and august.

The table below presents the two balance sheets.

Table 17 - Amuria and Katakwi: Food balance sheets for July 2007 to June 2008 (tonnes)

Amuria

Katakwi

It needs to be pointed out that the period July 2007-June 2008 is not an official marketing year, as Uganda uses a calendar year (January-December). The reasoning behind the choice of the period for the balance sheets above was that since the floods struck during harvest of the 2007 first season crops and significantly curtailed planting of second season crops, the next major harvest would be in July 2008 (if all goes well). Thus, the period July 2007-June 2008 would be a period of great food insecurity and therefore needs to be underscored.

The two balance sheets show that Amuria will be much worse off than Katakwi, mainly because of its larger population. Its food production will fall short of its requirements by 16 419 tonnes of cereals, 27 743 tonnes of roots and tubers. On the other hand, Katakwi falls short by 3 315 tonnes in cereals but has small surpluses in roots and tubers and pulses of 2 660 tonnes and 4 760 tonnes respectively. The shortfalls are relatively small and can be imported from other districts by businesspeople, but the crucial limiting factor will be the purchasing power of the local population. It must be strongly emphasized that many households in both districts suffered total losses in some crops, especially in cassava, sweet potatoes and groundnuts, and need to be immediately identified and targeted for assistance.

6. household food security

6.1 Pre-flood food security situation

In March-April 2007, WFP conducted an Emergency Food Security Assessment of IDP camps and settled areas in the conflict affected regions of northern and northeastern Uganda. The assessment canvassed 1 517 households residing either in Mother Camps (Gulu, Kitgum, Pader, Apac, Oyam, Amuria, Katakwi) or in Transit Camps (Gulu, Kitgum, Pader) or in resettled areas of Lira. Based on the convergence of food access, actual food consumption, food sources and expenditure on food and per capita total expenditure, the households were categorized into four groups, viz. Food Insecure, Moderately Food Insecure, Moderately Food Secure and Food Secure. The following table shows the distribution of households into these food security categories:

Table 18 - Pre flood: IDP households in food security categories (%)

Own production and the market were contributing to between 20 percent and 40 percent of the household food basket. The remainder is predominately acquired from food aid.

According to the study, 68 percent of the sample was classified as food insecure or moderately food insecure. Food aid contributed to over 40 percent of the household’s food basket in the previous 7-days and over a third throughout the year.

The small contribution of own production to the household’s food basket over the previous seven days and seasonal variations in the household sources of food throughout the year suggests that more work needs to be done to improve household access to land for agricultural production. The recent FAO Land Access Survey indicated that only 10 percent of households have access to 5 acres of more of land and 70 percent of the households had 3 acres of less of land. Households with less than 3 acres were classified as food insecure as they did not have a sufficient quantity of land to support their food needs. According to the households in this study, insecurity and lack of resources (money and inputs) were factors contributing to not having enough land. As noted earlier in this report, there is a strong relationship between household food security status and average contribution of own production to the household’s food basket. This would suggest that activities to increase the amount of land available to households for farming or programmes to provide credit or inputs would have a positive impact on the food security status of the households.

The assessment also revealed that a significantly high percentage of households have difficulty feeding themselves during the months of May, June, July and August. As the seasonal sources of food indicate, during this period, households compensate with borrowing and gathering foods.

The ongoing peace talks in Juba between the LRA and UPDF continue to create optimism for the potential return of IDPs to their areas of origin. However, due to insecurity and the lack of official guidance on the IDP return process, only 35 percent of the IDPs indicated that they would return to their area of origin in 2007. A second cohort of 30 percent of the population indicated that they would return in 2008. The report also finds that one-third of the households in camps are undecided on their return date. Improved information on returnee policy and non-food assistance such as shelter, water and education and health facilities are identified by IDPs as constraints for returning to their place of origin. Improvement in the social infrastructure and directives on returning could increase the percentage of households leaving the camps and returning to their communities of origin.

Assessment methodology for the household food access and livelihood assessment as a part of CFSAM

For the sake of the assessment, the affected sub-counties were divided into 3 categories - worst, moderately and least affected - during the stakeholders’ consultations. The worst affected are defined as those who lost more than 80 percent of their harvest in the floods, and could not produce the second crop either due to the persistent water logging or because of a hard topsoil layer which is difficult to till. These households have very limited food stocks at home that would last until December at the latest (many households do not have any stock at all even in November) and all the members of the household are eating only one meal per day. The moderately affected households are those who lost 40-80 percent of their crops, have some food stock at home from the previous harvest. The least affected are the households who lost less than 40 percent of their harvests, have enough food stock to sustain them until the next harvest in July, and may expect some yields from the second cropping season. Due to time constraint, the CFSAM team visited Teso, Lango, Acholi and Lango regions. Elgon region also got affected by floods, although the impacts were very localized and overall agricultural situation in Elgon is good. This region consistently has surplus production. However, WFP is conducting an Emergency Food Security Assessment in all 5 regions and based on the analysis, we might be able to conclude on food assistance requirements for Elgon, if any.

After the categorization, the team randomly selected 2-3 worst affected sub counties and a similar number of moderately affected sub counties for visits in each district. WFP carried out the household food security part of the assessment through (a) focus group discussions with the dominant livelihood group (mostly agriculture) and (b) household observations for physical verification of food stock. The health and nutrition status have been derived from a WFP-UNICEF-Ministry of Health Rapid Nutrition Assessment, which measured Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) of children in flood-affected areas. WFP, in collaboration with various partners, is undertaking a detailed Food Security Assessment in the flood-affected areas, covering a total of 1 250 households. Details on food consumption, coping strategies etc. will emerge from that study, once the analysis is completed by mid January 2007.

6.2 Livelihoods of the people in surveyed areas

Agriculture forms the main basis for livelihoods in the study area; the LC-5 Chairman of Amuria District estimates that 80 to 90 percent of the population depends on sale of agricultural produce, an estimate which may safely be extrapolated across the study area. Income opportunities beyond this – or in times of crop failure as experienced during and after the 2007 floods – are very limited indeed.

Though local coping strategies have been working for the past several months, these are coming to an end