S P E C I A L   R E P O R T

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION

TO SOUTHERN SUDAN

21 January 2008

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. BACKGROUND TO SOUTHERN SUDAN
• 3. Cereal production, 2007
• 4. CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION
• 5. HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY SITUATION
• Annex 1
,     Annex 2,     Annex 3

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

An FAO/WFP CFSAM worked in Southern Sudan from 21 October to 7 November 2007 to estimate cereal production and the food supply situation. Information was obtained from secondary sources, rapid case studies and key informant interviews. In addition, low flying at 300m above ground level, between Mission visiting points for 80 percent of journeys made over Southern Sudan, enabled comprehensive aerial observations by the Mission teams noting the farm, field, crop condition for the duration of the flights.

Ground verification of aerial observations was conducted by collecting area and yield data from the Mission‘s own crop cuts and field inspections cross-checked against information obtained directly from State Ministries and from the county Ministry of Agriculture (Ministry of Rural Development) staff, farmers, traders, herders, staff of NGOs and international agencies.

The Mission also undertook spot-check market surveys and, where the harvest had been completed, estimated quantities of stored grain in local on-farm silos.

The following locations were visited: Northern Bahr el Ghazal- Aweil, Alek, Muatang, and Ariek Weik; Western Bahr el Ghazal- Raja, Wau, Kor Malang, and Akoi; Unity - Bentiu and Rubkona; Central Equatoria - Yei, Terekeka, Juba, Kapuri, and Gudele; East Equatoria - Ikotos, Kapoeta and Torit; Upper Nile - Malakal, Mohamed el Jack, Obels 2 and 3, Dulip Hill, Nasir and Pagak; Jonglei - Akobo and Bor; Warrap - Tonj and Gogrial; Lakes - Rumbek and Cuibet; Western Equatoria - Yambio and Tambura.

The Mission team of 16 persons included representatives from the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and Southern Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (SSRRC), USAID-FEWS, WFP and FAO. Location specific information was provided by the NGOs Action Contre la Faim (ACF), German Agro Action, Oxfam-UK, Red Crescent, NHDF, NCDA, NPA, LWF, SudanAid, Swedish Free Mission, Women’s Self Help, Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Tearfund, and VSF-Belgium.

The Mission Team was supported by information from the FAO Emergency Unit in Juba, Food Security Information for Action (SIFSIA), Juba and Khartoum and the WFP Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit. Recent UN OCHA releases were collected relating to population and flood damage, UN RRR data were obtained regarding returnees and ECHO provided the Mission with Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC)’s Flood Watch reports. A macro-economic digest of the public sector was provided by the World Bank, Juba office.

In accordance with the approach adopted in previous years, the Mission has estimated cereal production

(CP) in each county derived from the model:

CP= number of households farming x cereal area per farming household x yield per unit area

The number of households farming is calculated using the latest estimated settled population divided by the 6 (UN adopted average household size) adjusted, this year, for flood losses. Cereal area is obtained from historical data, fine-tuned annually according to Mission observations; and yields per unit area are determined using previous CFSAM figures adjusted for this year’s conditions determined by the Mission. As well as the current harvest, the mixed cereal estimate includes grains to be harvested in the next 2 or 3 months, which consist mostly of the long-cycle sorghum planted in June in Upper Nile and Lakes and parts of Eastern Equatoria that will be harvested in January 2008. These fields are still vulnerable a) if the rains stop too early and b) if attacked by migratory Quelea quelea birds. The estimate also includes maize and short-cycle sorghum landraces that have already been harvested and eaten “green”’. The inclusion of these latter crops in the cereal balance used to determine surplus or deficit areas, anticipates a similar crop performance next year, which may not be the case.

The positive effects of timely rains with few significant breaks augmented production in all areas unaffected by floods (90 percent of farming households) with increased estimates of areas cultivated and enhanced yields. Farmed area is also expected to have increased due to the presence of 130 000 organised/assisted returnees (22 000 households) of which are thought to have arrived before 2007 and will have farmed this year¹.

However, these effects must be offset, at national, state and county levels against losses of crops on flooded and waterlogged fields. An estimated 7 955 km² of floodwater, mapped between May and August, 2007² in the three most affected states connects to a possible loss of crops for 20 000 households³. Mission disaggregated data collected from the six affected states⁴ recognised by GOSS and including floods and water-logging occurring after August, suggests some 56 000 ha of crops of some 89 000 households have been affected. Further, this year’s Mission revised the population data upon which area estimates are based, realigning the CFSAM 2006, mid-2007 prediction with UN OCHA’s latest population map thereby slightly reducing the estimated population for settled rural communities with a concomitant effect on area farmed.

The net result suggests that the area harvested in 2007 is similar to the CFSAM estimates in 2005 at 849 000 ha producing 859 000 tonnes at an average yield of 1.01 tonnes per ha. It should be noted that these production orientated figures do not include any activities of the estimated 1 100 000 spontaneous returnees (IDP and refugees), whose whereabouts are uncertain.⁵ Such returnees are most unlikely to be able to farm in their initial year for plots need clearing and the land cultivating by hand, which takes a lot of time and/or money to employ or attract labour groups under the nafeer system. Although there were adequate seed supplies among the settled farmers, IDPs and returnees and the vulnerable families in host areas, benefited from FAO supported seed distributions.

The only on-farm stocks, noted by the Mission, are those held by farmers in Western Equatoria. These may be as high as 2 tonnes of grains per homestead given the good season last year. As these stocks are carried over from year to year, they are not included in the calculation of any surplus/deficit. They comprise a mixture of cereals, oilseeds and pulses being mostly maize, upland rice, finger millet, sorghum, beans and groundnuts, the markets for which are limited and storage losses are high. This wide variety of grains is, therefore, used in the home and explains the high per capita-per annum consumption figure used in the balance for an area where the preferred staple is cassava.

Previous NGO attempts to promote the increased production of maize and sorghum for sale in Western Equatoria foundered when purchase of the increased quantities did not occur (2000). However, the area is famous for its farmers and the local capacity to produce all year round. New local purchase initiatives are highly desirable to promote development, but, because of the small size of farms and the recent history of broken promises, the initiatives will need to be connected to farmers associations (extant in Yambio, Tambura and Maridi) and long-term (five year) binding contracts. Ad hoc marketing expeditions are unlikely to find the surplus stored at farm level without the fore-mentioned type of negotiations.

The harvest estimate noted in Table 6 connects to a cereal surplus of 3 200 tonnes for a settled population in the urban and rural areas projected to mid-2008 to 8.99 million people. When 1.23 million spontaneous and organised returnees are included in consuming group, the demand, anticipating an average use of 85kg/head/annum, creates a deficit of 93 200 tonnes. Cereal production from the mechanized sector is noted to be higher than last year’s estimate at 159 000 tonnes, due to an increase in small-scale mechanised units in Renk (undemarcated farmers), and, on a much smaller scale the production from some 3 000 ha in Bentiu and 2 000 ha in Malakal. So far, pest threats have either been minimal or dealt with by the Renk-based Ministry plant protection unit. However, migratory Quelea quelea birds will remain a threat to the later sown crops until they are harvested in January.

Based on the Annual Needs and Livelihoods Assessment (ANLA) estimates, about 1.2 million vulnerable people and an estimated 372 000 expected returnees will require a total of about 102 000 tonnes (76 000 tonnes and 26 200 tonnes respectively) in food assistance.

2. BACKGROUND TO SOUTHERN SUDAN

2.1 General

Southern Sudan, is an area of 640 000 km² with a Mission estimated settled population of 8.99 million based on UN OCHA‘s 2007 rural population⁶ and an urban population estimate based on previous CFSAM estimates of garrison towns.⁷

The signing of a Peace Agreement in 2005, which ensures 6 years of peace before a plebiscite in 2011 that will determine the future of the region, either as an autonomous part of Sudan or as an independent sovereign state, has created the conditions for the return, since 2005, of an estimated 1.23 million people (UN RRR, Juba, (August 2007)) boosting population estimates to over 10 million.

During this transition phase, the autonomy of the South has been agreed and the necessary institutions to cater for “one country, two systems“ are functioning. As part of this process the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) has established inter alia four Federal Ministries directly concerned with natural resources being, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation and the Ministry of Environment and Wildlife Conservation. These four Ministries connect to ten State Ministries changing from the former State Ministries of Agriculture administered from Khartoum to Ministries of Rural Development and Natural Resources administered from Juba.

The GOSS 2007 budget was approved in January at US$1.622 billion and is similar to the actual expenditure of US$1.538 billion in 2006 summarised below in Table 1⁸

Table 1: Southern Sudan - Summary Budget 2006 by Sector

Regarding budget distribution, the percentage received for agriculture per se (component of Natural Resources and Rural Development) is small compared to other sectors and is directed to the establishment of the senior cadre. However, staffing is still weak with paid appointments only at federal and state levels resulting in Ministers, Directors-Generals and Directors with no staff to direct and no general operational funds.

Sectoral operational activities are presently limited to UN agency and NGO rehabilitation programmes linked to humanitarian aid programmes previously organised through Khartoum and from Lokichokkio, (Kenya). These are now organised from Juba providing a much greater coherence connecting to support for returning refugees, IDPs and marginalized communities with food aid and providing support to health, education, agriculture and civil development programmes for the settled and returning families throughout the South.

Table 2: Southern Sudan - Total Donor Contributions 2007 to 2010 by Sector

Funds for the extant development programmes are, in the main, from a Multi Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) and are summarised in Table 3, which, as part of the total donations summarised in Table 2, make up approximately 10 percent of the total budget for 2007. Unfortunately, the contributions of the MDTF for 2007 are not complete; however, it appears that within these funds natural resources and rural development feature prominently in 2007 but decline rapidly thereafter.

Table 3: Southern Sudan – Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) Contributions 2007 to 2010 by Sector

Underpinning the rural sector, the diverse natural resources of Southern Sudan traditionally support agro-pastoralist systems which include farming, animal production, fishing, hunting, gathering of wild fruits and honey, charcoal making and selling timber, building-poles and firewood according to location-specific agro-ecology and household demographics. In all but the South/Southwest the contribution of each activity to the household food economy varies from year to year, depending on the rainfall. As has been reported previously such complex systems have been seriously disrupted, in the past, through the major conflicts associated with the civil war, the concomitant lack of law and order and the rampages of armed forces such as the Lord Resistance Army (LRA) in the south - which has apparently subsided in recent months); and similar terrorist actions by renegade forces across the north. Notwithstanding the negotiated cessation of such hostilities and a general sense of improved security leading to increased freedom of movement and investment of time and energy in rural endeavours, insecurity still exists in the form of tribal clashes over territory, cattle raiding, farmer – pastoralist clashes, abduction of women and children and general insecurity in many areas especially in Unity, Jonglei and Warrap States. This year such clashes were reported to have been exacerbated by shifts in grazing patterns resulting from the effects of floods.

Improvements in road links through the construction of new roads and de-mining of old routes; and revitalised river links between the townships herald the re-establishment of commercial interchanges between agro-ecological zones, already allowing traders in West and East Equatoria and Lakes to move surpluses by bicycle, motor cycle and, to a lesser extent by truck from surplus producing areas to the towns where the population has the cash to access the products. Trade links are also expanding in the north, increasing the previously reported exchanges between the farming communities in Northern Bahr el Ghazal and merchants from northern Sudan. Similarly, there would appear to be steady trading between farmers in the eastern parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile States and Ethiopia. However, on a much larger scale, trade is noted to have increased dramatically between Uganda and Central Equatoria with regular daily arrivals of fleets of trucks bearing all manner of goods, commodities and foodstuffs. Regarding the latter, informal Ministry of Commerce and Trade estimates from Uganda suggest annual imports of 10 800 tonnes of maize meal, 1 800 tonnes of rice, 3 600 tonnes of roots and tubers and unspecified quantities of bananas, vegetables, fruits, eggs, frozen meats, fish and tinned items. No figures are available for estimated imports across the other borders or from north Sudan.

Exports this year, also estimated in Juba, include gum Africa (1 500 tonnes)⁹, sesame (3 tonnes) and honey (4 tonnes) plus unknown amounts of cassava flour and groundnuts.

With the exception of the oil-industry in Bentiu (Unity State) and the booming construction and service industries in Juba, the overall socio-economic situation in rural areas remains much as described in previous years with communities in the lowest rainfall zones, predominantly in the north of Northern Bahr el Ghazal and the south-east of East Equatoria, depending ultimately on humanitarian aid to augment the diverse but deficient household food economies. Elsewhere, for the time being, few opportunities for income generation other than the manual exploitation of the wide range of natural resources are apparent.

2.2 Agriculture

The agro-ecology of the south provides a growing season varying from 130-150 days per annum in the north to 280-300 days in the south-west. Consequently, agricultural performance varies considerably from place-to-place and from year-to-year ranging from the regular possibility of at least two consecutive harvests from the same area in the Greenbelt located from Tambura (Western Equatoria) to Kajo-Keji (Central Equatoria), to crop failures in the marginal areas of the East Equatoria and Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

Agricultural production is, for the most part based on small, hand-cultivated units presently farmed mostly by women-headed households belonging to larger family aggregations reflecting the polygamous nature of most communities. Animal traction is presently being introduced again, on a small-scale, by a new generation of NGO-based extension agents in Lakes and Bahr el Ghazal. The Mission findings this year suggest an upsurge in interest as the newly established NGOs revert to the previous practice of giving away free ploughs. The withdrawal of this practice, as full-cost recovery approaches for implements were introduced in the mid-late 1990s, caused the interest shown at the time by farmers in these locations, to drop away dramatically leaving piles of ploughs unsold.¹⁰

Mechanized farming using tractors is restricted to small areas close to the former garrison towns. Only in the Upper Nile State districts of Renk and Wadakona and to a much more limited extent in Malakal, and this year in Bentiu, is tractor-farming conducted at a level that could be identified with the commercial farms of South Kordofan and Blue Nile States.

Regarding cereals, in all smallholder systems farmers grow a wide range of sorghum landraces with minor crops of maize, bulrush millet, finger millet and upland rice according to location. In the northern parts of Southern Sudan other crops grown include groundnuts, which make a significant contribution to the household food economy replacing sorghum as the main staple in poorer sorghum-growing years when the rains begin later than usual. Groundnuts also provide a regular staple and cash crop in the higher localities with more sandy soils. Green grams, cowpeas, beans, sesame, pumpkins and tobacco add to the biodiversity of the northern farming areas. In the south and central areas, although groundnuts and the other crops are also grown in quantity, cassava is the most important contributor to the household food economy providing half or more of the carbohydrate nutrition requirement. Minor crops of sweet potatoes, yams, coffee, mangoes, papayas and teak are also grown for home and some localized commercial use.

As a result of such variations and variable access to wild foods and animal products, WFP food economy estimates of the late 1980s, adjusted upwards by the CFSAM in 2003, suggest that annual cereal use of the population ranges from 60 kg to 120 kg per caput per annum according to location. In the absence of other estimates, such estimates have again been used for determining domestic requirement for the marketing year 2008.¹¹

3. Cereal production, 2007

The civil war inflicted disruption led to a complete breakdown of the official gathering of agriculture statistics in all but limited areas surrounding towns previously held by the northern administration. Even in these towns, the Ministry offices, with the exception of Renk and Malakal, lacked equipment, simple materials and transport, which, compounded by access difficulties, undermined any intention of serious information collection. Despite the peace and improved access to wider catchment areas, data is not being collected as facilities remain much the same as before, that is to say field staff lack even the most rudimentary means of transport, materials, equipment and training.¹²

The ability to collect data and the understanding of the usefulness of accurate data remain unchanged from previous years. These characteristics connect to shortages of staff, training, equipment and supplies at state level and the need to transform the working culture and conditions. Further, at county and field level, workers lack the skills and experience necessary for objective agricultural assessments. The NGOs present are far better equipped and prepared for systematic data gathering and analysis but staff is not trained with regard to objective assessment of production or related activities, except for the gathering of rainfall data¹³. Local crop assessment is, therefore, based on verbal exchanges between farmers and MOA/NGO staff in the towns and SSRRC/ State Ministry volunteers/NGO staff dialogues with farmers elsewhere in the countryside. The Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) with the technical assistance of FAO through European Commission funding is implementing an institutional capacity programme, Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA), which is making headways in putting the necessary infrastructure to generate systematic and reliable food security related data.

Against this background, the Mission visited a total of twenty-four locations in the ten States encompassing the seven agro-eco systems of the south. Eighty case studies/key informant interviews were conducted as were field inspections of growing crops, crop yield estimations using the Pictorial Evaluation Tool¹⁴ (Robinson and Stirling, 2006) and crop cutting techniques; and market surveys.

Aerial observations of farms occupied, fields cropped and the type and condition of crops grown were made from aircraft flying 300m above ground level during 80 percent of the Mission’s movement from location to location. This added a further dimension to the assessing process, placing case studies of single farms into the general context of the areas over flown.

The sum of all activities enabled the Mission to obtain an independent picture of agricultural production across the south in a short period of time.

3.1 Area estimates

Given the data situation noted above, Mission area estimates for the traditional sector are compiled from derived population statistics for the traditional sector using factors selected to determine:

• number of households in each county by dividing the mid-2007 population estimate (not including the 1 100 000 spontaneous returnees) by an average of 6 persons;

• percentage of households in settled population including long-term IDPs farming in 2007 as noted by and reported to the Mission;

• area cropped by cereals per household this year, including home-gardens and far-fields as noted by and reported to the Mission.

This year’s base calculations are derived from population statistics by county prepared by the Mission based on;

• UN OCHA ‘s Population Density Map (2007) for the rural areas

• CFSAM population figures for garrison towns used in 2005.

The estimated cultivated area of the potential farms of the 130 294 organised returnees (22 000 households) of which 11 000 households are noted to have arrived before 2006 and have probably been farming, have been added to the calculated area. The estimated area affected by the extreme events during 2007 has been subtracted from the total.

Regarding the extreme events, an estimated 7 955 km² of flood water, mapped between May and August, 2007¹⁵ arising from both heavy rains and the rising waters of the Nile in the three most affected states translates to a loss of crops of 20 000 households¹⁶. Disaggregated county data, collected by the Mission during the field visits in late October from the six affected states¹⁷ and including floods and water-logging occurring later in the season, suggests some 56 000 ha of cereal crops of some 89 000 households have been lost. Further evidence of continued flooding is provided by the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs (HAC-Flood Watch September 2007, Khartoum). HAC reports that at Malakal (Upper Nile State) in September, the Nile level was 39 cm higher than the level recorded in 1988 when the last major floods were recorded, implying that areas prone to flooding in what are well-known to be flood plains, have been more severely affected this year in terms of spread and duration of flood waters and reinforcing the probability of additional affected areas.

Table 4 displays by county the estimates for population and the derived data relating to:

• Households farming, average farm sizes, flood affected areas and area of cereals.

The estimates of percentage of households actually farming and cereal area per household are based on Mission and local estimates in the areas visited or observed by the Mission during aerial transects. It is not possible to provide separate area data for each cereal. Nationally, sorghum is estimated to make up 70 percent of the total crop, however in the Greenbelt, in northern Unity and parts of Upper Nile maize is the dominant cereal.

Given the improved conditions prior to the floods, cereal area per household is noted to be higher than last year as the tendency for farmers to take advantage of improved access to agricultural land that the improved security offers to plant away from their houses in far fields, has been continued. Far-field planting is noted from the aerial transects to include:

• Small, fenced units surrounding fertile areas around leguminous trees cultivated by family members in North Bahr el Ghazal and

• Large areas cultivated by nafeer or food/drink groups, working for individuals with cash to invest in agricultural expansion in areas further south in Gogrial, Tonj, Lakes and Western Equatoria where the main season rainfall is reliable and security is better than before.

Farms in parts of Torit, all of Kapoeta in East Equatoria and in Pibor and other parts of eastern Jonglei are all comprised of far-fields being large blocks of group-based, hand-cultivated sorghum set apart from the villages. Such farms were recorded as clearly productive this year during the aerial transects across the areas noted.

Consequently, the traditional sector planted cereal area estimates are again higher this year at 0.904 million ha from a slightly reduced population figure used to derive area data. However, adjusting for the reported flooded or waterlogged areas, the net harvested area is expected to be 0.849 million ha. This area figure does not take into consideration of replanting both organised and spontaneous that will occur after the floods recede. For instance FAO has programmed to support 15 000 households with seeds under the UN 2007 Flood Appeal. It is also probable that farmers along the Sobat corridor will extend their recession farming of maize crops and ratoon crops of sorghum in Jonglei and elsewhere will flourish.

Table 4: Southern Sudan - Estimated settled population, farming households, cereal areas and flood-affected areas