S P E C I A L   R E P O R T

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO ETHIOPIA

(Phase 1)

24 January 2008

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2007
• 4. GRAIN SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION
• Annex 1
• Abbreviations and Acronyms

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

A Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 19 November to 12 December 2007 to estimate the 2007 main meher season cereal and pulse production; review the final post-harvest estimates of the 2006 main meher season and 2007 secondary belg season harvests; forecast the 2008 belg season production; and assess the overall food supply situation for the 2008 marketing year (January/December). Accompanied by experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Central Statistics Authority (CSA) and by observers from USAID and the European Commission, the Mission mobilised seven teams and visited, over an 18-day period, 63 zones and special woredas (districts) covering all the grain producing regions and the marginal areas. Unlike previous years, the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission is carried out in three phases - Phase 1: Crop and overall food situation assessment in Nov/Dec (mainly FAO); Phase 2: Meher food security assessment in Nov/Dec (mainly Government/WFP); Phase 3: Synthesis and report writing during early February (joint FAO/WFP).

The Mission obtained planted area and yield data for all major food crops from woreda, zonal and regional agricultural bureaux, which were cross-checked against information from farmers, traders, NGOs and remote sensing data from early warning systems. The WFP/VAM Unit provided charts with dekadal rainfall at zonal level and maps of Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for all cereals.

Within the visited zones and special woredas, 280 key informant interviews were conducted, including 127 with farm families to be considered as rapid case studies with associated crop inspections including spot-check crop-cuts. Market visits, livestock body condition scoring and continuous transect observation recording of crops and their conditions using the Pictorial Evaluation Tool to standardise procedures, were conducted over about 23 000 km travelled by the teams. This information provided the background with which teams audited performance data received and, where considered necessary, BoARD yield forecasts were adjusted to take into consideration the latest and broader information collected by the teams.

The overall agricultural performance of the 2007 meher season is judged to be better than the previous year, due to improved yields from a slightly increased area in both the main production zones and marginal areas. The improved yields are considered by the Mission to be due to the direct effects of well-distributed rainfall on crops, higher financial returns to grain growers prompting increased investment in inputs and timely farming operations and, finally, the overall timely availability of fertilizers, improved seeds and credit. Such inputs did not, however, meet the ever-increasing demand for improved seeds, fertilizers and herbicides from the commercially orientated smallholder farmers in the surplus producing zones.

Overall, the Mission estimates total 2007 meher cereal and pulse production at about 21.5 million tonnes, some 7 percent above the previous year’s post-harvest estimates. It is the fourth consecutive good harvest.

With a belg harvest in July/August 2008 anticipated by the Mission at 600 000 tonnes, total domestic availability of cereal and pulses for 2008 is estimated at 22 million tonnes which is expected to meet domestic requirements.

As in the previous 2006 Ethiopia CFSAM report, the cereal and pulse balance sheet is provided with a breakdown by main cereals. The balance incorporates CSA data for a) the population increase to mid-2008 and b) expected cereal use increases at national level.

The last four years have been characterized by a steady growth of the Ethiopian economy, with an average real GDP growth rate of 11.8 percent per year. As in 2006, the good performance of the agricultural sector coupled with the sustained effort by the government in poverty-targeted investments, especially in the sectors of road construction, education and agriculture, have supported a broad based expansion of the economy. Export earnings have also registered a substantial growth in recent years, owing to both increases in volume and revival in the prices of major exports in the international market. However, imports have also surged, leading to a record trade deficit of US$3.9 million, about 10 percent higher that previous year.

Since the end of 2004, prices of main cereals have followed a steady upward trend, without any significant post-harvest reduction, and have remained above the average level throughout 2007. This trend has been explained by a combination of economic factors influencing effective grain demand and supply as well as the rise in oil prices and the increasing supply of money. Nationwide good economic performance in 2006, fuelled by increasing pro-poor investments and private consumption, the injection of cash into the rural economy through the Productive Safety Net Program and the recent increase in salaries and pensions of public civil servants have boosted the demand for grains and livestock. At the same time, despite the good harvests obtained, volumes of grains available on markets may have not increased as expected or, at least, their sales may have been more evenly distributed over the year, instead of being concentrated at harvest time. Better financial capacity of farmers to retain and stock grains due to access to micro-credit, increased local purchases by governmental food security institutions, agricultural cooperatives and relief agencies, together with expanded domestic and external trade flows, seem to be the main factors behind a reduced market supply. Although the full impact on markets in 2007 of newly harvested crops is still not clear, the Mission registered some early signals of nominal price reduction for maize and, to a lesser extent, wheat, while teff’s price seems still to be stable due to the fact that the majority of the product is still being harvested or threshed.

As in 2006, it seems that the overall food situation is highly favourable, with an increase in food availability and possible access for a large number of vulnerable groups. If grain prices decline at the beginning of 2008, urban consumers and rural net buyer households will benefit from the good harvest. At the aggregate level, the country is able to cover all its cereal requirements. Stocks are expected to increase and a relatively large quantity of grains could also be exported.

In conclusion, in order to understand better the grain supply and demand situation in the country, the Mission suggests undertaking in-depth studies in the following four issues: (1) an analysis of food effective demand in urban and rural areas following recent economic growth and structural changes; (2) an analysis of flows and magnitude of crop and livestock cross-border trade; (3) an analysis of markets and prices to assess the effect of bulk sales at the beginning of 2008 (possibly between March and April); (4) an assessment of the belg season harvest to cross-check national data that are gradually diverging from the historical trend/average.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

2.1 Macro-economic situation

Ethiopian economy has experienced a strong and steady growth of real GDP over the past four fiscal years. After a decline of 3.5 percent in 2002/03 as a result of the poor performance of the agricultural sector due to a severe drought, real GDP has showed a strong positive performance, totalling a cumulative growth of more than 56 percent. The estimated real GDP growth in 2006/07 stood at 11.4 percent, with agriculture, industry and service sectors registering increases of 9.4, 11.0 and 13.5 percent, respectively. Favourable weather conditions coupled with expanding governmental programs in infrastructure, rural development and poverty alleviation as well as booming urban construction projects are the principal determinants of the sustained expansion of Ethiopian economy.

Table 1: Macro-economic indicators

Compared to the previous fiscal year, total nominal government revenue in 2006/07 (including grants) has increased by 26 percent. It reflects an improved system of tax collection and administration as well as the rise in donor funding that passed from 3.7 Million Birr in 2005/06 to 7.6 Million Birr in 2006/07. At the same time, poverty-reducing expenditure (defined to include agriculture, food security, health, education and roads) grew about 18 percent in nominal terms, while defence spending has been cut significantly, reaching the record minimum of 2 percent of GDP. In conclusion, the overall balance (including grants) shows a budget deficit of 3.6 percent of GDP, the lower in last three years.

With regard to the external sector, total export earnings have registered substantial growth in recent years, owing to both increases in volume and revival in the prices of major exports in the international market. In 2006/07, total value of exports grew by 18.5 percent, driven by an expansion in volume and price of coffee and a robust growth in other exports such as pulses, flowers, gold and leather products. Export of oilseeds, on the other hand, after the peak reached in 2005/06 essentially due to record sales of sesame seeds to China, has shrunk by 11.6 percent in volume. Imports also surged in 2006/07, reflecting the rise in private and public investment (especially in machinery and transport capital goods) and the increasing demand in consumption following the economic growth, alongside the escalating world oil price. Reflecting the good performance of the agricultural sector, imports of food and live animals decreased by 17 percent. By the end of the 2006/07 fiscal year, the trade deficit reached the record level of US$3.9 million, with an increase of about 10 percent compared to the previous year and thus exports were able only to finance 23 percent of imports.

Table 2: Major exports commodities (value in US$ millions; volume in ‘000 tonnes)

After two fiscal years of deficit, the overall balance of payments shows a surplus of US$85 million. In fact, net foreign direct investments have reached the record level of US$482 million in 2006/07 which, coupled with an increase in official long term loans (+73 percent), have determined a surplus in capital account of US$941 million, offsetting the deficit in current account balance.

At the end of 2006/07, the total external debt outstanding was US$2.3 billion, showing a 62.2 percent decline compared to previous fiscal year due to the substantial debt relief obtained from multilateral organizations and a decline in external loan disbursement. Multilateral creditors still account for more than half of the total outstanding debt, while the remaining 35 and 14 percent are owned by bilateral and other commercial creditors.

As in past years, reflecting the Government commitment to enhance the competitiveness of the export sector, the official exchange rate of the Birr continued to depreciate slightly. The average official exchange rate of the Birr against the US dollar in the inter bank foreign exchange market depreciated by 1.34 percent to stand at US$1=Birr 8.79 in 2006/07 and US$1=Birr 8.68 in 2005/06. In the average parallel market, the Birr has appreciated by 0.76 percent. The depreciation of the national currency reflects growing pressure on foreign-exchange reserves that, despite some 15 percent increase on previous year, can finance only about 10 weeks of next year’s import, representing the lower cover level attained in the recent past.

2.2 Inflation and its determinants

For a long time, Ethiopia has been a country with low inflation rates in sub-Saharan Africa. In the past, this has been the result of several factors, such as a strong currency due to prudent monetary and fiscal policies (1960's-1973), the general price control (1974-1992) or the implementation of economic reform and stabilization programs (1992-2004). Due to the high weight of food prices in the construction of the overall Consumer Price Index, peaks in inflation rates were traditionally correlated with a decline in crop production, usually a consequence of limited rainfall. However, since the end of 2004/beginning of 2005, coinciding with the first of the 4 successive years of bumper harvests, consumer prices started to climb steadily, reaching the inflation rate of 17.8 percent in 2006/07, 5.5 percentage points above the previous year’s level. It is then evident that current inflation is not caused by drought-induced shocks on agricultural output as in the past, but it may be considered as the result of several new determinants that have an impact on the effective demand and supply in the country.

The steady expansion of all economic sectors from 2003/04 to the present, fuelled by increasing pro-poor investments and private consumption (instead of governmental consumption as in the 1990s), is a key factor in explaining growth in aggregate demand. According to the latest 2004/05 Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure (HICE) Survey by the CSA, total per-capita expenditure has increased by 20 percent between 2000 and 2005. This increase is reported particularly in rural areas, where purchasing power of some households has increased due to the injections of cash into the local economy through the PSNP and the budgetary support at woreda level (salary payments of public officials). In addition, the higher agricultural prices have increased cash disposal of crop producing households, increasing their demand for marketed food and non-food commodities. In urban areas, it is worth mentioning the effect on demand of an increase in salaries and pensions of some 300 000 civil servants granted by the Government in September and amounting to about 1.2 percent of GDP.

On the supply side, despite the good harvests obtained in the last three years, the real marketed food production may have not increased as expected or, at least, sales may have taken place in a more distributed manner throughout the year, without being concentrated, as was usual, during and just following the harvest period. The growing access to micro-credit services, with the possibility to spread out loan repayments over a longer period of time, reduces the financial pressure in the early part of the season with a consequent reduction in distress sales of crops between January and March. Farmers are then gradually changing their trade practices, being able to hold some stocks in anticipation of better future prices.

Regarding the export of grains, in addition to the small amounts reported through official channels (due to the ban imposed by the Government to limit further increases in domestic prices), a significant amount export is assumed to take place to the neighbouring countries of Kenya, Sudan and Somalia through informal trade. Due to high price differentials for teff between Ethiopia and Eritrea, it is indicated that some quantities of teff illegally enter Sudan or Djibouti to be traded to Eritrea. On the other hand, official exports of pulses has increased substantially in the last few years, from 77 800 tonnes in 2003/04 to 158 800 tonnes in 2006/07. Regarding livestock, a strong increase in official exports is reported, especially to the Middle East. According to data by the Ethiopian Custom Authority, exports of live animals that were only about 3 000 tonnes in 2003/04 reached 43 700 tonnes in 2006/06. In addition, although there are no data available, it is reported by several traders and market analysts interviewed by the Mission in pastoralist regions that a significant number of live animals informally cross borders towards Kenya, Somalia and, to a lesser extent, to Sudan and Djibouti.

Local purchases of grains by some institutions like the EGTE, the agricultural cooperatives and unions and the major relief agencies (or just the expectations regarding eventual purchases) may have some impact on prices in local market. Actually, although limited in quantity when compared to the total marketable grain production, local purchases had a positive impact on market competitiveness, often representing a viable alternative selling opportunity for farmers vis-à-vis the offers made by private traders and merchants.

In addition to structural changes in Ethiopian demand and supply, inflation is also in part determined by rising world prices oil and other imported goods as well as by monetary developments, driven by a significant growth in money supply needed to meet the surge in credit demand for investment financing. Mounting remittances, foreign direct investments and funds for NGOs are other important inflows determining the increase in money supply.

The introduction of a temporary ten percent surtax on luxury imported commodities (excluding basic commodities and investment goods) to raise funds for food subsidies, the distribution of wheat at subsidized prices from April 2007 at about 800 000 low income urban households, bans on exports of main cereals as well as on grains stockpiling and some monetary measures (such as the increase in interest rates from 3 to 4 percent and in minimum reserve requirements in commercial banks from 5 to 10 percent of net deposits) are the main actions of the Government aiming at stabilizing the price trend as well as improving the purchasing power of the most affected population.

2.3 Poverty and population

Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world. According to the 2007 Human Development Report of the United Nations Development Programme (based on 2005 data), Ethiopia is ranked 169th out of 177 countries in the human development index, with a GDP per capita adjusted with the Purchasing Power Parity of only US$1,055 (compared to almost US$2 000 average for Sub-Saharan countries). According to the latest Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey by the Central Statistical Authority (CSA), the incidence of national poverty declined from 44.2 percent in 1999/00 to 38.7 percent in 2004/05. In particular, despite the historical constraint to development due to land shortage and low labour productivity, some reduction in poverty levels took place in rural areas as a consequence of the steady increase in Government’s pro-poor expenditures in support of food security. At the same time, urban poverty has showed only a marginal decline especially due to the limited capacity of the embryonic manufacturing sector to absorb the increasing number of economically active population in towns as well as the negative impact on household budget of increasing prices of food commodities.

Regarding non-income poverty indicators, gains in welfare have been significant during the last ten years when Ethiopia began decentralizing basic service delivery responsibilities, first to regions and then more recently to local governments. According to the 2005/06 annual progress report of the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the number of children in primary school increased from 8.1 million in 2001/02 to 12.6 million in 2005/06 taking the gross enrolment ratio from 61.6 percent to 91.3 percent. In the same period, access to health services has moved from 52 to 72 percent and infant mortality has declined considerably. The percentage of underweight children has also dropped from 45 percent in 2000 to 37 percent in 2004. Access to clean water supply has increased from 23 percent to 41 percent in rural areas and from 74 percent to 80 percent in urban areas between 2001/02 and the end of 2005/06.

Rapid population growth remains a major barrier to poverty reduction. The addition of about 2 million persons per year puts tremendous strains on Ethiopia's environment, the economy and the ability to deliver proper services. According to the UN World Population Prospects 1950–2050, Ethiopia's population in 2004 was 75.6 million, making it Sub-Saharan Africa's second most populous country after Nigeria and it is expected to reach 97 million by 2015. Ethiopian population is still overwhelmingly rural, with 16.5 percent living in towns and only Addis Ababa, the capital, accounting for above 3 million people (almost 4 percent of the total population). Total population for mid-year 2008 has been estimated by the Mission at 79.24 million. This estimate is based on projections by the CSA for mid-2007 population and applying the official overall annual population growth rate of 2.77 percent.

2.4 Recent developments in food security policy

The Government of Ethiopia has developed a federal Food Security Programme (FSP) within the framework of the wider Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the national strategic framework for the five-year period 2005-2010. The PASDEP represents the second phase of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process begun under the Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Programme (SDPRP), which covered the period from 2000/01 to 2003/04. The FSP seeks to ensure food security for 5 million chronically insecure people and for 10 million who are negatively affected by food shortages in drought years. The Programme rests on three pillars: (i) increasing food availability through domestic production, (ii) ensuring access to food for food-deficit households and (iii) strengthening emergency response capacity. It has two underlying principles: a reliance on helping farmers to use their own resources to overcome food insecurity, both through agricultural improvements and diversification of off-farm income sources, and a shift away from reliance on foreign food aid.

In January 2005, in close collaboration with a pool of donor partners, the Government of Ethiopia has launched the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) as the main component of the Food Security Programme for assisting initially about 5 million chronically food-insecure people in rural areas. The PSNP represented a significant transformation of the Government’s food security policy, moving away from responding to chronic hunger through short-term solutions such as emergency appeals and food aid delivery toward a more articulated development-oriented plan to address the underlying causes of household food insecurity. PSNP’s objectives are the reduction of household vulnerability, the improvement of household and community resilience to shocks and breaking the cycle of dependence on food aid. The key goal is to enable chronically food insecure household to acquire sufficient assets and income in order to “graduate” out of food insecurity.

Through the PSNP scheme, the chronic food insecure families receive cash or food transfers, either ‘for work’ (through labour-intensive public works in building roads, water and other infrastructures) or ‘for free’ (through direct support to labour-poor, elderly or otherwise incapacitated households), on a regular and predictable basis for a period of five years, with financial and technical support on a multi-annual basis. The provision of cash transfers rather than food intends to help households to meet immediate consumption needs while protecting their assets. In this way, the provision of cash intends to increase flexibility over consumption decisions, avoiding assets depletion, and to stimulate the development of local economies and rural markets. Together with complementary interventions, such as livelihoods’ packages, cash transfers intend to enable households to escape from chronic food insecurity, after which they will no longer receive any social assistance, except during emergencies.

Under the leadership of the Federal Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB), the first “transition” phase of the PSNP has been completed in December 2006, during which period the necessary institutional structures, implementation capacity, financing modalities and financial management systems are being put in place. During 2006, the PSNP was scaled up to reach 7.23 million people (more than 1.4 million households) and it operates in over 230 woredas in 7 regions (Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNPR, Afar, Harar and Dire Dawa). The second “consolidation” phase started in the first quarter of 2007 and will last until 2009. It aims at consolidating the results achieved in the first phase focusing on issues such as enhancing governance, environmental impact and financial sustainability of the programme.

The second phase of the PSNP continues the implementation of the main programme components and, for the first time, it includes activities to support drought risk financing. These activities provide timely resources for transient (and not chronic) food insecure households through a contingent grant which will provide resources for scaling up direct support and/or public works in response to localized or intermediate drought events with the aim of more effectively preventing household asset depletion and increasing levels of destitution.

Over the last 18 months, due to the escalating food prices and stagnant labour wages for public works, the proportion between food and cash transfers via PSNP has substantially shifted in favour of food, reversing the situation that was characterizing the beginning of 2006. The major activities undertaken as public works include soil and water conservation, water harvesting, small-scale irrigation, reforestation, rural infrastructure development, horticultural development and water supply schemes.

Financially, the first phase of the PSNP was very important in mobilizing substantial donor support for the second phase. Including USAID and WFP in-kind contributions, donors’ financing increased from about US$333 million for the first phase to US$557 million for the second phase. However, despite this increase, additional US$195 million are still needed in order to fully achieve the objectives of PSNP second phase.

In addition to the PSNP, the Government has designed a series of complementary actions financed by the federal budget component of the FSP (about US$230 million per year) through a grant provided to Regions. These actions aim in particular to improve access to new land (via the voluntary resettlement programme) and to provide household income generating packages (often through micro-credit). The voluntary resettlement program has already moved about 170 000 households from farming marginal lands in chronically food insecure areas to new, more productive lands. Despite some isolated cases of reverse migration, it is reported that more than 130 000 resettled households have become self-supporting in 2006 and the major part of the program has been completed in some regions. Regarding FSP’s household packages and micro-finance, they target the same families that are beneficiaries of the PSNP in order to finance productive investments and boost opportunities to graduate out of food insecurity. A growing concern is that current average size of FSP’s micro-loans may be too large (between US$230 and 575 on average) and interest rates too high relative to the households’ income, increasing their exposure to risk.

2.5 Agricultural sector policies

Since the early 1990s, in order to pursue agricultural growth, the Government has adopted the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) policy that primarily focused on the intensification of production systems. After the initial approaches of market liberalization and public investments to promote the adoption of new technologies (as improved seeds and fertilizers), the current agricultural policy is still based on the ADLI framework but, within the PASDEP, it shows a shift in strategy toward a more market-oriented agriculture, either at national than international level, and the promotion of private investments. As reported in the PASDEP, the main instruments to achieve these objectives are: (i) the construction of farm-to-market roads; (ii) the development of agricultural credit markets, (iii) the improvement of specialized extension services; (iv) the promotion of specialized export crops (such as spices, cut flowers, fruits and vegetables); (v) the increase of irrigated area through multi-purpose dams; (vi) the adoption of measures to improve land tenure security; (vii) the introduction of reforms to improve the availability of fertilizer and seeds. In order to bring the best results, the selection of agricultural development instruments takes into consideration the high variability of Ethiopian agro-ecological zones.

2.5.1 Agricultural credit

The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) is the largest source of agricultural credit in the country. Currently, more than 2.5 million farmers, accounting for 25 percent of total smallholder agriculture, obtain credit annually for the purchase of inputs, mainly fertilizer. The bulk of this credit is provided to farmers through unions and cooperatives with the intervention of the regional governments to underwrite the loans. During 2006/07, the CBE disbursed slightly less than a million Birr of agricultural input loans based on credit requests submitted by the regional governments of Oromia, Amhara, SNNP, Tigray and Addis Ababa. As it is reported in the Table 3 below, some 1.3 million Birr have already been approved for the year 2007/08 (that started in July 2007) and about one billion Birr has already been disbursed. The interest rate on these loans is 6.25 percent.

Table 3: Agricultural input loans

2.5.2 Fertilizer supply

Ethiopia totally depends on imports to meet its annual fertilizer demand. The foreign exchange needed for fertilizer importation is financed through loans, donor assistant (grants) and government treasury. Hence, precision in planning and fine-tuning of marketing activities are necessary to ensure timely imports and supplies. The fertilizer sector has been deregulated and opened for private competition since the mid 1990s. Following the issuance of the fertilizer policy, the pan-territorial fertilizer pricing system was eliminated and subsidies were removed. However, aware of the strategic role of the fertilizer sector in achieving self-sufficiency and alleviate poverty, the government of Ethiopia is still involved in the sector by making credit available to farmers and encourage more fertilizer use. New Government’s import guidelines have been recently issued in order to facilitate access to credit (especially on collateral requirements) and increase the number of private importers. However, due to the recent sharp increase in international prices, fertilizer imports have decreased by some 28 percent. In particular, imports of urea have dropped from 153 000 tonnes in 2005/06 to 50 000 tonnes in 2006/07. In fact, weighted average CIF import prices of urea at Djibouti port have increase by 32.2 percent if compared to 2006, while prices of DAP have increased only by about 14 percent. At aggregate level, total fertilizer availability amounted to about 433 000 tonnes in 2006/07, comprising about 277 000 tonnes of new imports and about 157 000 tonnes of carryover stocks.

The state-owned Agricultural Input Supply Enterprise (AISE) and two private trading companies (Ambassel and Wondo) have been dominating the fertilizer sector over the last years, holding about 80 percent of the market. However, since 2005, an increasing number of cooperative unions operates on a regional basis, importing about 177 000 tonnes of fertilizers. Currently farmers’ cooperative unions provide about 41 percent of national supply of DAP and urea.

Table 4: Fertilizer availability by type and supplier in 2006/07 (tonnes)

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2007

3.1 General

In Ethiopia, some 13.6 million hectares are presently being farmed to produce cereals, pulses, oil-seeds and root, stem, tuber and tree crops in one of the most diverse sets of agro-ecologies in the world. Of these 13-14 million ha only some 200 000 ha are irrigated, therefore, the nation’s annual harvests depend on the quality and quantity of the variable annual rains. Consequently, production at the national level varies dramatically from year-to-year. This is particularly the case in the marginal areas located predominantly in the north and east of the country and in low-lying valleys and rain-shadows throughout the main production zones of the central highland plateaux.

The crops are grown during two seasons; the minor season, belg (harvested from March up to and including August) and the major season, meher (harvested from April up to and including February). Crop diversity follows the complicated mosaic of agro-ecologies that are derived from a combination of the usual rainfall for the locality, soil types ranging from vertisols to sand and altitudes ranging from more than 3 000m to less than 600m above sea level.

The main cereal staples wheat, barley, teff, maize, sorghum and finger millet, are grown in varying proportions according to the parameters noted above conditioned by the traditional culture and prevailing market conditions.

Carbohydrate sources other than cereals include the stem of enset or false-banana (Enset ventriculosum), cassava, sweet-potatoes and potatoes all of which are found mostly in either the middle altitude or highland areas of the southern-central regions of the country.

Cash crops include oilseeds, sugar-cane, coffee, tea, chat¹, eucalyptus, citrus, mangoes and spices. The tree crops are grown in forests and plantations and as hedgerows, on-farm woodlots and orchards throughout the country in the middle altitude and highland areas.

In the western, eastern and southern lowlands and fore-mentioned valley bottoms and escarpments indigenous grasses and acacia browse support both settled and transhumant livestock. Of particular importance to the national economy are the agro-pastoralist/pastoralist herds and flocks in the Regions of Afar and Somali. Similar pastoralist systems are also found in the southern zones of Bale and Borena, Oromia Region, and in South Omo Zone, SNNPR and in the western lowland forest-savannahs that stretch from Gambella, via the Regions of Benshangul-Gumuz and western Amhara to Tigray.

National livestock production from such pastoral areas is augmented by the settled agro-pastoralism of peasant farmers throughout the central plateaux where common grasslands, comprising indigenous grasses and clovers, provide intensively grazed pasture, which, coupled with browse and crop residues provide the feed for the livestock in mixed farming systems producing sheep, goat and beef and dairy cow products for sale and home use. The sedentary livestock also include the ubiquitous oxen that provide the draught power for major peasant farming operations² viz ploughing, secondary cultivation, and threshing and some transportation of goods and commodities.

3.2 Rainfall in 2007

Rainfall in Ethiopia occurs in two distinct seasons:

• The belg³, minor rains that usually begin in February and end in April-May supporting both short cycle crops that will be harvested at the end of the rains and longer cycle crops that will be harvested up to September; and

• The meher⁴, main rains supporting crops planted in or before the meher season⁵, which usually start in June-July and end in September-October. Such crops are harvested from September to the following March.

In 2007, the Mission was provided with comprehensive rainfall data by the VAM unit, WFP, comprising 2007 data from the National Meteorological Agency NMA from all the weather stations; and zonal estimates by dekad determined by VAM by blending the NMA data with remote sensed data.

Regarding belg rains, in some ten zones in the south-central and northern parts of the country, belg rains are regular enough in most years to support belg harvests which provide contributions to the household food economies equivalent to or greater than the meher harvests. In a further twenty zones, belg harvests sometimes occur. Elsewhere, the belg rains offer the opportunity for land preparation and planting of late-maturing varieties of maize, sorghum and finger-millet, as well as stimulating new growth in the pasture and browse after the dry season thereby providing a much needed “early-bite”. The melding of belg and meher rains often generates one long season without clear-cut breaks, which although good for perennial crops and the long-maturing cereal varieties, is less than ideal for the belg sown straw crops.

In 2007, the belg rains were late in all the Tigray zones, Oromiya zone (Amhara), West Hararghe and East Haraghe (Oromia), and in Gamo Gofu (SNNPR). Elsewhere, they started on time merging with the meher rains in 23 zones. In the remaining 33 zones, the rains fell as expected, leading to a harvest from nine zones of 1.52 million tonnes of assorted cereals and pulses from 790 000 ha⁶.

Regarding the meher season, the seven Mission teams dispatched throughout the country to determine agriculture production and conditions, collected qualitative and quantitative rainfall data from all zones and woredas visited. The variable nature of the rainfall inherent in the semi-arid areas of Ethiopia means that in any zone and in any year there are always communities, particularly in the lowlands, that experience less than satisfactory rainfall. In 2007, such areas were noted to be few. Regarding zonal averages, the combined returns confirm that in all zones except West Tigray, where the rains were lower than average, meher rains were considered to be as “good” or “normal” that is to say the rains conformed to the expected pattern, they began on time, they were heavy in July and August, were reasonably evenly distributed and finished in September or early October. Extension of rains into November and December, noted last year, did not occur. In all the belg producing special woredas in SNNPR except Burji⁷, better meher rains than normal were experienced leading to greater areas planted and harvested. Extreme events including floods in Somali, hailstorms in Haraghe and long lasting water–logging in some low-lying plains such as the Cheffa Plain in Kemisse, Oromiya were noted and were of local significance causing losses and necessitating replanting but not at such a level as to influence zonal crop production. The VAM data shows that all woredas in Somali received unusual and substantial meher season rains, however, the deyr season seems to be both delayed and patchy according to the recent OCHA Humanitarian Bulletin (17 December 2007).

For every crop, seasonal-average, zonal-level water requirement maps, also prepared by VAM, WFP, indicate that only rainfed sorghum in the lowland plains of South Tigray suffered from less than adequate rainfall. Following a detailed visit to the area, the Mission feels that this concern is misplaced as all the sorghum grown on the lowland plains in the areas identified is irrigated by spate flows. This season, the Alamata plain received 10 all-encompassing flows providing more than sufficient water for excellent crops of sorghum and maize. The adjacent plains of Raya Azebo woreda received only 4 such floods, limiting the area of very highly productive sorghum⁸ compared to last year as the fields outside the reach of the diverted floods were sown to teff.

Consequently, the Mission notes that rainfall effects at the national level are:

• Maize planting, indicative of good early rains, has been increased by 13 percent above the elevated level reported last year seemingly at the expense of area sown to pulses.

• Sorghum planting, equally connected to good early rains, has increased by 3 percent.

• In most zones, the harvests of short-cycle crops were either completed or well-advanced at the time of the Mission.

• The mid/late season planting of wheat, barley and teff has also increased slightly over last years’ estimates in part because of the continuation of encouraging rainfall throughout the season in most areas.

• Where they occurred, the continuation of the rains into October and early November encouraged late, opportunistic planting of short-cycle pulse crops such as chick peas and grass peas and niche cereals such as sassa barley and semerete wheat.

Regarding the effect of rainfall on pasture and browse, the good belg rain stimulated early growth and the heavy and persistent meher sustained the development of forage throughout the year in all parts of the country.

3.3 Area planted

Agricultural data in Ethiopia is derived from two sources:

1. data from the Central Statistics Authority (CSA) under their official mandate to provide comprehensive statistical data on agriculture through the organisation and implementation of sample surveys. CSA methodology is based on widely accepted probability sampling principles and has been approved by national and international experts. The methodology is based on an objective approach of field measurements; surface measurement and crop cuttings. The sampling size covers approximately 66 000 private peasant land-holders selected from 2 200 Enumeration Areas (EAs). Each year a fresh list of HH in each EAs is prepared to account for population movements.

2. data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD), based on information collected at local level before harvest from the whole farming community by the Development Agents (DAs) of the Bureaux of Agriculture and Rural Development (BoARD). MoARD approach is subjective and based on farmers’ interview (inquiry approach). These BoARD data are processed through a hierarchical series of steps from the DA areas (called tabia/kebelles/peasants’ associations, depending on region) via woredas and zones to the regional BoARD offices.

The two data sets differ significantly with regard to area, a characteristic noted regularly in CFSAMs since 1994. A comparison between CSA and MoARD with regard to area of cereal and pulses is presented in Annex.

Table 5 presents the strengths and weaknesses of both methodologies as per international experts’ consultations in 2007 within the framework of an EC funded project GCP/ETH/071/EC, implemented by FAO, aiming at addressing the discrepancies amongst these datasets:

Table 5: Comparison of CSA and MoARD crop acreage definition methodologies’ strengths and weaknesses.

Since 1994 and in 2007, MoARD dataset has formed the basis of the CFSAMs and as such data are:

• collected by the Bureaux of Agriculture and Rural Development

• available at the time of the Mission at all entry points, and

• are presented to the Mission in their original form.

The data are discussed at each entry point and then are collated, cleaned and adjusted by the CFSAM agronomists for outlying, inconsistent and illogical figures and double counting⁹. The local woreda BoARD data are also used in the DPPA/WFP Meher Needs Assessments that form the basis of the annual food aid requirements, a summary of which provides the statistics for the WFP component of the CFSAM Special Reports.

The Mission estimates that the national area planted to cereals and pulses during the 2007 meher season is 12.25 million hectares, which is 1.0 percent higher than last year’s Mission estimate and 0.07 percent above the Federal MoA’s 2006 post-harvest data compiled in March 2007.

Explanations noted by the Mission for the c.100 000 ha expansion in 2007 include:

• Farmer confidence in agriculture given the sustained high prices of all crops.

• Very good rains in most zones.

• An increased use of fallow land in Oromia and SNNPR Regions.

• Expansion into forest and grazing lands, particularly in the vast uncultivated areas of the western lowlands.

• Entrant programmes for young, landless persons in Oromia and Amhara Regions.

• Rice area is noted to have increased by 73 percent due to extensive planting in the flood plains of South Gondar.

Closer examination of major cereal and pulse areas at national level reveals that:

• There was a 2 percent increase cereal area reflecting increases in the planted areas of all cereals but

• Area to pulses fell by 8 percent reflecting a major reduction of area to pulses in favour of maize (150 000 ha) in Oromia Region.

Regarding the situation of uncropped arable land in Ethiopia, only the mechanised sector located in the western lowlands is in a position to change radically the areas under productive management. Here, the Mission notes, with concern, that in the large-scale, mechanised farms in the Western Zone of Tigray, investors and resettled peasants have adopted, wholesale and without question, the low-input approaches of their Sudanese neighbours whereby fields of either sorghum and sesame are sown during a single land- preparation-sowing pass. Thereafter, the resulting fields may or may not be weeded and the farmers harvest the resulting crop relying on the extension of land, rather than good agricultural practices, to make their profit. Perpetrators of this system, including large scale investors with hundreds of hectares and resettlers hiring tractors from contractors to plough their 1-2 ha are already noted by the Mission to be undertaking a form of mechanised, shifting agriculture leading to the abandonment of large areas of fallow land as they leave their original allocations and move to more fertile areas. The resilience of vertisols notwithstanding, such practices is environmentally destructive, wasteful of resources and unsustainable. Similarly, in years with rainfall such as 2007’s pattern in the Western Zone, Tigray, where rains have been generally below average but occasionally heavy during the main growing season, neglecting the traditional practices of good, early, land preparation, inter-row cultivation (shilshalo or gussia) and within-field, surplus water management and weed control leads to lower yields and disappointing returns for both groups of farmers.

Regarding other factors affecting area cultivated nationally, given the sustained higher levels of cultivation achieved every year since 2003, there do not appear to be any widespread constraints on ploughing capability. However, in the wetter, forested areas the debilitating effects of trypanosomiasis on draught animals are again noted to be of concern in Dawro, Keffa and Wolaita (SNNPR) and in lowland areas of Jimma Zone (Oromia). In these localities, given that the small size of farms precludes the effective use of the normal four-wheeled tractors but where timeliness of cultivation, sowing, and weeding is of paramount importance for the production of a satisfactory series of crops to achieve food security, once again the Mission notes, with surprise, that there is still no apparent interest in testing the introduction of the diesel engine, two-wheeled, walking-tractor as an alternative power sources to oxen¹⁰.

Following the good 2005 meher and the very good 2006 belg and meher harvests, seed supply per se was not a constraint on 2007’s meher planting. Seed rates were reported to have been on a par with the higher rates noted last year across the country, resulting in the use of some 850 000 tonnes of cereal seeds. As in previous years, most seed sown came from farmer carried-over stocks. Returns from the National Agricultural Input Suppliers’ Association (NAISA) show that in 2007 improved seed sales decreased by 20 percent to 20 500 tonnes¹¹ from last year’s final estimate of 25 000 tonnes, similar to the level used in 2005. According to farmers and zonal agricultural staff in all the progressive teff, wheat and maize farming areas, the supply of certified seed is not enough.

3.4 Factors affecting yields

The national yield averages, again compare favourably with averages estimated over the past five years reflecting a sustained or an improved performance of cereals in all regions. Presently, under the prevailing BoARD system of data collection explained earlier in the report in the context of area estimates, DAs assess yields at pre-harvest and harvest stages for all field crops and pass the data to woreda specialists, who cross-check the findings with teams from the zonal and regional offices¹². Such data are then transferred to the zones (or region in the case of Tigray) for final review, analysis and onward passage.

Because of the timing of the exercise, the Mission teams usually receive at the zonal entry –points, only the early yield estimates.¹³ These are then adjusted by the CFSAM team using the qualitative information obtained from the key informants at the BoARD offices, NGOs and from the farmers themselves, and taking into account the Mission teams’ transect records, field observations, crop-cutting measurements and any changing conditions regarding the weather and late pest and disease challenges. In 2007, all Mission teams used the Pictorial Evaluation Tool (PET), developed by the Centre for Arid Zone Studies, University of Wales, Bangor, UK, to add more consistency to the auditing approach adopted. On return to Addis Ababa, all assessments are subject to rigorous reviews when performance estimates are revisited with respect to seed type, timing of sowing, extent and timing of fertilizer use, the season’s pest and disease profile, the performance of similar crops in neighbouring localities, time-series data and are finally compared with any other independent assessments available for the zones.

In 2007, given that general rainfall adequacy and timely cultivation have already been confirmed in the previous section, the remaining factors affecting crop performance reviewed below are inputs (seeds, fertilizers and chemical), pest and disease profiles and basic crop husbandry during the growing season and at harvesting.

3.4.1 Seeds

In the 2007 meher season, 97.7 percent of all seeds used were local seeds carried over from the previous harvest either by the farmers themselves, following the traditional on-farm selection process whereby the farmer identifies next year’s seed stock while it is still maturing in the field and gives it special protection, or by buying from preferred seed stock kept by other farmers in the same locality. In the surplus areas, such seeds are mostly open-pollinated releases from government seed agencies that have become stabilised over the last two decades and have acquired local identities reflecting their provenance. In recent years, organised farmer multiplication of more recent releases, followed by farmer-to-farmer exchanges, has augmented the quantity of improved seeds distributed, particularly wheat but the volume exchanged is difficult to quantify. In the more marginal areas, as well as such seeds, traditional local landraces such as black wheat and two-row barley are also in evidence and are exchanged or sold between farm families as needed.

The remaining 2.3 percent of seeds used, amounting in 2007 to the 20 500 tonnes, are certified seeds directly purchased from registered suppliers. Of these improved seeds sold 8 800 tonnes were maize seeds, 9 276 tonnes were wheat seeds and 2 547 tonnes were pulses. Whereas the volume of improved maize seed sales is 12 percent lower than last year, it still accounts for some 14 percent of the maize sown. Certified wheat seed sales are down by 8 percent over last year’s directly purchased volume but as these are all open pollinated varieties, the Mission believes that farmers regularly renew their stock with certified seed allowing the use of on-farm, carry-over seeds to be continued for another cycle of 2-3 years. Directly purchased wheat seeds are estimated to account for 4.4 percent of the wheat sown possibly reflecting the higher sowing rate-higher investment required in sowing certified wheat seed compared to maize.¹⁴

Given the favourable rainfall, no widespread replanting was necessary except in the flood affected localities in Somali¹⁵ and in a few entry-points, where, in some localities, the rains were less favourable, as noted in section 3.2.

3.4.2 Fertilizers and chemicals

Continuing the trend noted by the Mission last year, fertilizer use during the meher 2007 season, as indicated by cash and credit sales, increased by around 3.3 percent to 388 000 tonnes. Despite significant increases in base prices¹⁶ of DAP (diammonium phosphate) to c.420-440 Birr per quintal (US$511/tonne) and to c.380-390 Birr per quintal (US$444/tonne) for urea, DAP sales went up or were stable in 13 out of 16 zones in Oromia, all zones in Amhara, but declined by 30 percent¹⁷ in SNNPR and in 3 out of 5 zones in Tigray. Urea sales were lower in several zones due, variously, to late arrival, increased prices and credit repayment problems precluding farmer access or causing farmers to defer from purchase in fear of the consequences of defaulting on payments later.

The pattern of amounts distributed during meher 2007 was as follows:

• Tigray received the lowest share of fertilizer among the significant crop growing regions at 3.8 percent. This is, however, more than last year’s 2.5 percent and similar to the 3.9 percent in 2005.

• Amhara received 32.8 percent (31 percent in 2006 and 2005).

• Oromiya received 46.7 percent compared to 46 percent in 2006 and 50 percent in 2005.

• SNNPR received 7.4 percent reflecting a drop of 14 000 tonnes from the 11 percent share distributed last year due mostly to repayment problems.

• The remaining 10.3 percent (7.1 percent in 2005; 10 percent in 2004; 13 percent in 2003) was sold to farmers in the other regions and to various commercial enterprises.

  1. Pests and diseases

Regarding pests, in 2007 the season was again a virtually migratory pest free:

• No flocking of birds was noted in 2007 suggesting that all migratory Quelea quelea birds were kept under control by the aerial spraying of roosting sites.

• Army worm outbreaks were noted in only 2/63 entry-points and these all were controlled by the heavy rains in July.

• Desert locust outbreaks in North Gondar (early in the season) and Somali (September, 2007 on grassland) were reported to have been destroyed by local spraying teams, in a few days, in both cases. Further outbreaks in Somali have been reported by OCHA in the Humanitarian Bulletin, 17 December.

The endemic non-migratory pests were also noted to be of little significance in 2007, the most troublesome being sorghum chafers (packnoda), Wollo bush crickets, grasshoppers and bollworms and sesame webworm. In the forest areas, local birds and wild animals require farmers to establish routine pest scaring to avoid significant losses. Storage pests, especially weevils, are noted to be, as usual, a cause for concern throughout the country but they are particularly important in the wetter south- western zones, where stored maize losses are expected to be high. Plenty of interest in the purchase of grain storage protection chemicals was noted by the CFSAM teams among farmers in Sheka, Keffa and Bench Maji zones.

Given more crops, poor on-farm stores and few chemicals annual grain storage losses will be high in marketing year 2008 with levels expected to be around 5 percent for teff and finger millet, 10 percent for sorghum, 12.5 percent for wheat and barley and 25 percent for maize and beans.

The adverse effects of crop diseases were also noted to be mild. Despite earlier reports of rust on improved wheat, no significant events were noted or reported to the Mission. However, the significant presence of sorghum smut was noted by Mission teams in the fields of South Wollo and South and West Tigray but was seen to be of very little concern to the farmers whose fields were infested. Local seed treatment carried out using cows’ urine and garlic in some of the other localities visited was reported but it would seem that a seed dressing programme needs to be considered to prevent the further spread of the disease in the major sorghum growing areas.

Weed competition was again fierce in 2007 as the good distribution of rain generally enhanced all plant growth. The Mission notes an increase in frequency of hand-weeding of most crops in all regions and reports of “shilshalo” or “gussia” the animal-powered inter-row cultivation of maize and sorghum crops were commonly noted in all stover-crop growing areas, not, however, in the emerging low-cost mechanised farming areas in the western lowlands¹⁸. An apparent increase in the use of herbicides by farmers as diverse as wheat farmers in Arsi and Bale, teff farmers in Jimma and mixed cereal farmers in East Gojam is also noted. As was the case last year, the decision to buy herbicides is formed because of heavy weed infestations and a shortage of casual labour with daily rates ranging from 16 Birr to 25-30 Birr per day in most northern areas. Quantities of herbicides sold in the private sector are not available.

The combination of the positive factors noted above and the well-distributed rainfall described previously, has resulted in sustaining or slightly increasing the good yields per unit area noted by the CFSAM last year. The improved yields, in 2006 and 2007 are considered by the Mission to be due to:

• The direct effects of well-distributed rainfall on crop growth and development.

• Better financial returns to cereal growers prompting increased investment in inputs and timely pre-season cultivation and main season husbandry.

• Improved availability of fertilizers and credit.

• High demand and use for improved seeds from both certified sources and farmer-to-farmer exchanges.

3.5 Other crops

Crops contributing to household food security vary from north to south and from east to west. In the north, oilseeds, particularly sesame and nuq, are important to both commercial producers and peasant farmers. In 2007, enormous price rises of 100 percent in sesame prices to 1 100-1 200 Birr per quintal noted by the Mission are bound to influence area planted next year in the same way as the planting of oilseed crops increased in 2006 in response to prices of 500-600 birr per quintal for sesame in 2005. In 2007, oilseed planting was sustained at the 2006 level in Tigray (at 98 percent) and Amhara (at 99 percent) but increased in Oromia (101 percent) and Benshangul (108 percent). Yields of oilseeds are lower than last year due to the heavier rain mid-season in Amhara and Tigray but higher than last year in Oromia, resulting in a slightly increased production (101 percent) nationally, at 684 000 tonnes of which most is sesame.

Given the diverse nature and generally favourable conditions for plant growth of the southern half of the country, a greater range of other crops contribute to the household’s economy. In SNNPR and the southern zones of Oromia, crops other than cereals and pulses occupy 12 percent and 32 percent respectively of the planted area compared to 3 percent and 7 percent in Amhara and Tigray. Of these the importance of enset, which provides the main carbohydrate staple for some 8-9 million people and makes a substantial contribution to the diet of an additional 4 million people, is well understood. Enset data from southern zones were incomplete in 2007; however, the Mission teams in the enset area noted no reasons to suppose that enset harvesting is out of balance with replanting frequency, suggesting that the area noted last year will have been sustained. Enset condition is noted to be good with yields at normal levels.

Annual roots and tubers, mostly in the same agro-ecological zones as enset have also performed well during both 2007’s belg and meher seasons due to the good rains. The sweet potato and potato yields of 15-30 tonnes per ha, recorded by Mission team members during a separate study in 2003, were probably achieved in 2007 but such yields were not recorded by the BoARD officers. The Mission feels that contributions of these crops and cassava¹⁹ to the household food economies in these localities are being seriously underestimated and requires both production and consumptive use studies.

Coffee production (June 2007-2008) is expected to be better than the previous year. According to the Coffee and Tea Authority specialists interviewed by Mission teams, the biennial cycle of production that the crop follows was favourable in 2007 and growing conditions during the year were good in all zones. The expected increase in coffee in the main 18 coffee producing zones in Oromia (11 zones) and SNNPR (15 zones and special woredas) is expected to be in the order of 12 percent.

The performance of other industrial field crops such as tea, sugarcane and cotton and the performance of chat are reported to be better than to last year, again due to better rainfall, and, in the latter case, the application of urea fertilizer to chat trees.

3.6 Livestock

Ethiopia has one of the largest livestock inventories in Africa, including more than 38 million cattle, 30 million small ruminants, nearly 1 million camels and 4.5 million equines and 32 million chickens (CSA, 2007 ²⁰), with livestock ownership currently contributing to the livelihoods of an estimated 80 percent of the rural population.

In the arid and semi-arid extensive grazing areas in the Eastern, Western and Southern lowlands cattle, sheep, goats, and camels are managed in migratory pastoral production systems. In the highlands, livestock are kept under settled or transhumant systems utilising common pastures many of which have a high clover content, and crop residues. Such livestock includes some 9.3 million oxen providing draught power for the mixed farming system that prevails.

Much has been made of the sequence of droughts in the pastoral areas in the past five years, yet livestock returns continue to increase nationally, which is something of a paradox. Certainly recovery from shocks in the north-east and southern pastoralist areas should have been possible, as pastures and water points are noted to have been well-supported by the last 2 annual rainfalls and, for two years no premature herd migrations to the relief grazing pastures in east Amhara or South Tigray have been noted by the Mission team during field visits along the Afar- Amhara and the Afar–Tigray borders. However, given the frightful lack of information emanating from and relating to Somali, and, unlike last year when an especially constituted two-person team from the FAO and WFP international consultants visited Gode and Afder Zones to determine the prevailing situation, the Mission is not in a position to comment on the prevailing situation in the Ogaden regarding crops or, more importantly, livestock except to say that the rains during the meher season are noted from the VAM, WFP data to have been unusually good, however, the deyr rains up to December has been patchy with associated movement of livestock from poorer to better pastures.

Throughout the central highlands and western zones, good pasture and ready access to drinking water has resulted in enhanced livestock body condition during the main grazing season. Body condition scores of 2-4, averaging 3 in most areas, predominate except where:

• Farm animals are traditionally dependent on arable by-products, therefore end-of- season scores are usually 1-2 with the animals improving in the dry season.

• Community grasslands are being ploughed up for new entrants to farming, reducing the grazing available for the settled livestock.

• Hillside enclosures have been extended to a further round of hil