No.1  February 2008  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE

Food Emergencies Update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

FAO global cereal supply and demand indicators

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries’ food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical Appendix

Note

Statistical Appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
  Average     
2000/01 -     
  2004/05 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
  ( percentage )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat33.826.329.029.426.123.1
Coarse grains19.015.119.118.215.215.0
Rice30.125.423.724.524.023.5
Total cereals25.920.623.022.920.219.2
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters’      
supplies to normal market requirements121117137133116118
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters’ stocks      
to their total disappearance     
Wheat20.417.021.723.816.111.7
Coarse grains15.210.719.017.912.511.2
Rice19.215.913.215.815.815.2
Total cereals18.314.518.019.214.812.7
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1997-2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  ( percentage )
4. Changes in world cereal production0.63.39.3-1.0-2.14.6
       
5. Changes in cereal production       
in the LIFDCs1.42.73.45.23.30.7
       
6. Changes in cereal production in       
LIFDCs less China Mainland and India3.57.9-0.27.04.2-2.2
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2000/01 -
  2004/05 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
   ( percentage )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat (July/June)110.8-1.1-1.05.225.474.5
Maize (July/June)100.27.1-15.26.444.619.8
Rice (Jan./Dec.)83.111.724.95.48.917.0
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. Rice index refers to the first year shown.

 

Table A2. World cereal stocks1 ( million tonnes)
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
estimate
2008
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 486.3 417.5 469.9 472.6 427.4 405.3
Wheat 204.4 162.5 179.6 182.8 161.8 146.8
held by:      
- main exporters 239.139.056.459.839.528.8
- others165.3123.5123.3122.9122.3117.9
Coarse grains 162.9 149.8 190.8 185.3 162.0 156.1
held by:      
- main exporters255.348.592.790.662.263.6
- others107.6101.398.294.799.892.5
Rice (milled basis) 119.0 105.2 99.4 104.6 103.6 102.4
held by:      
- main exporters221.722.518.922.923.522.9
- others97.382.680.681.680.179.5
Developed countries 145.3 123.6 189.7 192.1 136.9 118.8
Australia5.29.211.115.97.36.8
European Union 333.721.547.645.133.026.9
Canada8.910.314.516.210.59.0
Hungary 41.40.8----
Japan5.44.94.74.84.44.3
Poland 42.92.4----
Romania 52.01.25.05.63.8-
Russian Federation12.57.39.19.38.58.6
South Africa3.83.54.14.12.71.2
Ukraine5.12.84.24.84.34.2
United States45.144.474.771.749.948.1
Developing countries 341.0 293.9 280.2 280.6 290.5 286.5
Asia 307.5 253.2 236.2 236.7 242.7 245.6
China209.4163.3152.8149.0153.2160.0
India39.832.926.725.829.231.6
Indonesia5.76.05.75.15.65.8
Iran, Islamic Republic of4.43.53.23.63.52.8
Korea, Republic of2.82.92.52.83.02.5
Pakistan2.91.91.83.13.23.6
Philippines2.21.92.22.72.62.7
Syrian Arab Republic4.14.24.54.63.93.7
Turkey8.07.26.55.56.43.6
Africa 19.1 20.8 23.3 26.2 31.4 25.2
Algeria2.52.63.64.44.74.6
Egypt3.22.73.14.34.13.2
Ethiopia0.70.10.10.81.81.8
Morocco1.83.04.92.74.01.7
Nigeria1.91.61.31.42.10.9
Tunisia0.61.01.21.41.41.3
Central America 5.6 5.7 6.3 4.6 4.5 4.7
Mexico3.73.94.62.82.63.0
South America 8.5 13.8 14.1 12.7 11.7 10.8
Argentina3.33.83.23.83.03.2
Brazil1.65.86.34.13.12.3
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 to 2007 25 member countries, in 2008 27 member countries.
4 From 2005 included in the EU.
5 In 2008 included in the EU.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.

 

Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains ( US$/tonne)
  Wheat Maize Sorghum
  US No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord. Prot.
1
US Soft Red
Winter No.2
2
Argentina
Trigo Pan
3
US No.2
Yellow
2
Argentina 3 US No.2
Yellow
2
Period
 
Annual (July/June )      
2003/04161149154115109118
2004/05154138123979099
2005/06175138138104101108
2006/07212176188150145155
Monthly      
2007 – January208176183164161173
2007 – February209175175177165178
2007 – March209168187170160171
2007 – April206171209150144145
2007 – May203180219159147155
2007 – June231205239165156166
2007 – July250223249146141157
2007 – August277254273152157171
2007 – September342323325158169177
2007 – October352323321163180172
2007 – November332307290171179171
2007 – December381345310178171192
2008 – January381343330206207225
1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf.
2 Delivered United States Gulf.
3 Up River f.o.b.
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.

 

Table A4a. Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2007/08 or 2008 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2006/07 or 2007 2007/08 or 2008
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  33 947.9 2 211.1 36 159.0 38 492.9 14 566.4 1 222.4 13 344.0
North Africa   15 743.5 24.5 15 768.0 18 451.0 11 181.2 0.0 11 181.2
EgyptJuly/June11 895.5 24.5 11 920.0 12 430.0 7 363.2 0.0 7 363.2
MoroccoJuly/June3 848.0 0.0 3 848.0 6 021.0 3 818.0 0.0 3 818.0
Eastern Africa  4 015.3 1 279.2 5 294.5 4 598.0 1 092.8 593.3 499.5
BurundiJan./Dec. 74.9 45.1 120.0 139.0 2.9 2.9 0.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 41.0 0.0 41.0 41.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 67.7 5.8 73.5 72.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EritreaJan./Dec. 216.0 0.0 216.0 326.0 7.0 7.0 0.0
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 14.7 430.5 445.2 241.0 76.3 76.3 0.0
KenyaOct./Sept. 999.9 179.01 178.9 1 022.0 311.1 110.2 200.9
RwandaJan./Dec. 176.0 16.0 192.0 206.0 8.7 8.7 0.0
SomaliaAug./July 323.2 116.8 440.0 480.0 84.1 84.1 0.0
SudanNov./Oct.1 248.1 358.31 606.4 1 436.0 357.5 216.4 141.1
UgandaJan./Dec. 160.5 87.2 247.7 180.0 52.6 52.6 0.0
United Rep.of TanzaniaJune/May 693.3 40.5 733.8 455.0 192.6 35.1 157.5
Southern Africa  2 711.4 372.2 3 083.6 3 601.0 2 052.4 480.9 1 571.5
AngolaApril/March 855.3 20.7 876.0 780.0 303.7 5.8 297.9
LesothoApril/March 181.3 10.1 191.4 254.0 147.0 17.0 130.0
MadagascarApril/March 227.4 34.3 261.7 292.0 259.2 63.3 195.9
MalawiApril/March 161.4 73.0 234.4 163.0 123.6 52.8 70.8
MozambiqueApril/March 779.5 103.5 883.0 863.0 333.5 58.8 274.7
SwazilandMay/April 122.2 5.8 128.0 174.0 94.9 12.0 82.9
ZambiaMay/April 55.8 28.1 83.9 68.0 15.9 4.4 11.5
ZimbabweApril/March 328.5 96.7 425.2 1 007.0 774.6 266.8 507.8
Western Africa  9 905.3 433.9 10 339.2 10 141.4 197.7 117.8 79.9
Coastal Countries   7 582.0 133.2 7 715.2 7 768.0 74.3 30.9 43.4
BeninJan./Dec. 102.5 0.3 102.8 97.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 146.8 17.31 164.1 1 240.0 36.6 1.4 35.2
GhanaJan./Dec. 687.4 35.0 722.4 735.0 13.6 13.6 0.0
GuineaJan./Dec. 508.9 13.6 522.5 502.0 8.2 0.0 8.2
LiberiaJan./Dec. 202.6 37.4 240.0 240.0 14.9 14.9 0.0
NigeriaJan./Dec.4 580.0 0.04 580.0 4 580.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 270.1 28.9 299.0 289.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TogoJan./Dec. 83.7 0.7 84.4 85.0 1.0 1.0 0.0
Sahelian Countries   2 323.3 300.7 2 624.0 2 373.4 123.4 86.9 36.5
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 248.4 25.9 274.3 279.0 6.3 6.3 0.0
Cape VerdeNov./Oct. 65.1 8.7 73.8 73.6 3.0 3.0 0.0
ChadNov./Oct. 65.5 72.0 137.5 126.0 47.4 47.4 0.0
GambiaNov./Oct. 92.8 9.6 102.4 100.5 1.2 1.2 0.0
Guinea-BissauNov./Oct. 95.4 8.4 103.8 86.9 3.3 3.3 0.0
MaliNov./Oct. 326.9 46.5 373.4 308.7 1.1 1.1 0.0
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 318.4 33.2 351.6 296.0 12.4 12.4 0.0
NigerNov./Oct. 204.1 83.1 287.2 236.7 7.2 7.2 0.0
SenegalNov./Oct. 906.7 13.3 920.0 866.0 41.5 5.0 36.5
Central Africa  1 572.4 101.3 1 673.7 1 701.5 42.3 30.4 11.9
CameroonJan./Dec. 628.4 1.6 630.0 630.0 12.4 0.5 11.9
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 42.6 19.7 62.3 43.5 8.9 8.9 0.0
CongoJan./Dec. 310.9 6.1 317.0 317.0 1.1 1.1 0.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. Jan./Dec. 554.6 72.4 627.0 675.0 19.9 19.9 0.0
Equatorial GuineaJan./Dec. 24.0 0.0 24.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sao Tome and PrincipeJan./Dec. 11.9 1.5 13.4 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

Table A4b. Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2007/08 or 2008 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2006/07 or 2007 2007/08 or 2008
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA  41 479.5 1 429.5 42 909.0 39 154.8 18 340.5 593.6 17 746.9
CIS in Asia  3 345.0 394.6 3 739.6 3 507.0 1 989.7 23.5 1 966.2
ArmeniaJuly/June 282.0 86.4 368.4 318.0 171.7 4.2 167.5
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 265.0 118.8 1 383.8 1 052.0 853.2 2.8 850.4
GeorgiaJuly/June 907.0 95.3 1 002.3 862.0 359.4 6.9 352.5
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 272.0 0.0 272.0 310.0 245.7 0.0 245.7
TajikistanJuly/June 277.0 94.1 371.1 506.0 286.6 9.6 277.0
TurkmenistanJuly/June 4.0 0.0 4.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 338.0 0.0 338.0 430.0 73.1 0.0 73.1
Far East  28 000.6 834.3 28 834.9 24 702.8 12 679.0 469.4 12 209.6
BangladeshJuly/June2 880.5 166.1 3 046.6 3 550.0 1 892.3 268.5 1 623.8
BhutanJuly/June 70.6 0.4 71.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CambodiaJan./Dec. 31.3 8.7 40.0 40.0 1.5 1.5 0.0
China (Mainland)July/June2 566.0 0.0 2 566.0 2 877.0 406.3 0.0 406.3
D.P.R. of KoreaNov./Oct. 214.7 353.3 568.0 1 120.0 173.6 123.0 50.6
IndiaApril/March6 730.0 35.3 6 765.3 2 100.0 1 991.4 21.6 1 969.8
IndonesiaApril/March8 159.9 32.9 8 192.8 7 041.4 4 307.9 17.2 4 290.7
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 16.4 11.4 27.8 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 224.7 34.3 259.0 279.0 29.6 5.0 24.6
NepalJuly/June 232.4 7.6 240.0 160.0 8.1 8.1 0.0
Pakistan May/April 357.7 65.9 423.6 1 521.0 1 000.8 2.1 998.7
PhilippinesJuly/June5 271.8 83.0 5 354.8 4 676.0 2 853.5 14.0 2 839.5
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 184.6 35.4 1 220.0 1 180.0 8.4 8.4 0.0
Timor-LesteJuly/June 60.0 0.0 60.0 60.0 5.6 0.0 5.6
Near East  10 133.9 200.6 10 334.5 10 945.0 3 671.8 100.7 3 571.1
AfghanistanJuly/June 631.5 151.0 782.5 690.0 292.8 92.4 200.4
IraqJuly/June4 022.6 7.4 4 030.0 4 230.0 2 332.1 6.5 2 325.6
Syrian Arab Republic July/June2 728.0 8.0 2 736.0 2 750.0 1 046.2 1.1 1 045.1
YemenJan./Dec.2 751.8 34.2 2 786.0 3 275.0 0.7 0.7 0.0
CENTRAL AMERICA  1 500.2 147.1 1 647.3 1 633.0 563.4 111.3 452.1
HaitiJuly/June 492.1 90.9 583.0 593.0 172.5 61.6 110.9
HondurasJuly/June 666.7 33.1 699.8 680.0 221.5 21.3 200.2
NicaraguaJuly/June 341.4 23.1 364.5 360.0 169.4 28.4 141.0
SOUTH AMERICA  914.0 30.0 944.0 1 010.0 580.0 0.0 580.0
EcuadorJuly/June 914.0 30.0 944.0 1 010.0 580.0 0.0 580.0
OCEANIA  415.7 0.0 415.7 415.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 358.0 0.0 358.0 358.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
TongaJan./Dec. 6.4 0.0 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EUROPE   1 613.8 0.0 1 613.8 1 435.0 314.3 0.0 314.3
AlbaniaJuly/June 440.0 0.0 440.0 440.0 168.1 0.0 168.1
BelarusJuly/June 599.0 0.0 599.0 435.0 4.8 0.0 4.8
Bosnia and HerzegovinaJuly/June 574.8 0.0 574.8 560.0 141.4 0.0 141.4
TOTAL   79 871.1 3 817.7 83 688.8 82 141.4 34 364.6 1 927.3 32 437.3
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 575 in 2004), which is in accordance with guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocation of food aid.
2 Estimates based on information available as of end January 2008.

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