No.3  May 2007  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE1 (total: 33 countries)

Food Emergencies Update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

FAO’s global cereal supply and demand Indicators point to another tight season

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical appendix

NOTE

Statistical appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators

Top
  Average     
2000/01 -     
  2004/05 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat33.626.128.328.023.622.3
Coarse grains19.015.119.118.614.414.9
Rice30.225.523.825.124.323.9
Total cereals25.820.622.922.819.119.0
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters’      
supplies to normal market requirements121117137133117117
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters’ stocks      
to their total disappearance     
Wheat20.417.021.723.214.816.0
Coarse grains15.210.719.018.09.610.1
Rice19.215.913.215.714.313.9
Total cereals18.314.518.019.012.913.3
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1997-2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
4. Changes in world cereal production0.63.49.1-1.1-2.54.8
       
5. Changes in cereal production       
in the LIFDCs1.23.03.05.12.60.2
       
6. Changes in cereal production in       
LIFDCs less China and India3.58.7-1.06.64.3-1.3
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2000/01 -
  2004/05 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat (July/June)110.821.3-1.1-1.05.225.4
Maize (July/June)100.218.67.1-15.26.444.0
Rice (Jan./Dec.)83.1-3.914.726.7-1.05.8
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to
July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100;
For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. For 2006/07, all price indices are calculated based on average selected prices from the beginning of the seasons up to April 2007. Rice index refers to the first year shown.

Table A2. World cereal stocks1 (million tonnes)

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  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
estimate
2008
forecast
Total cereals 484.2 416.4 465.6 471.1 401.5 400.8
Wheat 202.5 161.3 176.1 175.4 148.5 142.5
held by:      
- main exporters 239.139.055.458.636.940.5
- others163.4122.3120.7116.8111.6102.0
Coarse grains 162.8 149.8 190.2 190.2 150.1 155.1
held by:      
- main exporters255.348.592.891.349.054.0
- others107.5101.397.498.8101.1101.1
Rice (milled basis) 119.0 105.4 99.3 105.6 102.9 103.2
held by:      
- main exporters221.722.518.922.921.320.6
- others97.382.980.482.781.682.6
Developed countries 145.2 123.5 189.3 191.3 120.6 122.4
Australia5.29.211.115.65.3 
European Union 333.721.547.745.833.6 
Canada8.910.314.516.312.2 
Hungary 41.40.8--- 
Japan5.44.94.74.84.4 
Poland 42.92.4--- 
Romania2.01.25.05.03.0 
Russian Federation12.57.39.19.38.5 
South Africa3.83.54.14.12.6 
Ukraine5.12.94.45.04.1 
United States45.144.474.771.734.9 
Developing countries 339.1 292.9 276.3 279.8 280.9 278.4
Asia 306.2 251.9 233.8 237.7 237.7 
China209.1162.9151.9152.6155.7 
India39.832.926.725.826.9 
Indonesia5.76.05.75.25.3 
Iran (Islamic Republic of)4.43.52.73.23.1 
Korea, Republic of2.82.92.63.03.2 
Pakistan2.91.91.83.23.3 
Philippines2.21.92.22.73.2 
Syrian Arab Republic4.14.24.54.43.7 
Turkey8.07.26.54.63.8 
Africa 18.8 21.5 23.5 26.2 30.8 
Algeria2.52.63.64.54.7 
Egypt3.22.73.14.14.0 
Ethiopia0.90.40.31.02.7 
Morocco1.82.94.62.63.3 
Nigeria2.01.61.21.42.2 
Tunisia0.61.01.21.41.2 
Central America 5.6 5.9 6.5 5.4 4.7 
Mexico3.73.94.73.73.1 
South America 8.2 13.3 12.3 10.2 7.5 
Argentina3.23.82.32.71.7 
Brazil1.65.86.24.02.5 
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 25 member countries.
4From 2005 included in EU 25.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.

Table A3. Estimated Cereal Import Requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit countries 1( 000 tonnes )

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   2005/06 or 2006 2006/07 or 2007
  Actual imports Total import
requirements
(excl. re-
exports)
Marketing
year
 
Marketing
year
Commercial
purchases
Food aid Total commercial and aid Commercial
purchases
Food aid 
AFRICA  36 651.8 2 709.1 39 360.9 35 375.6 16 003.2 1 583.9 14 419.3
North Africa   16 347.7 5.3 16 353.0 15 238.0 9 775.4 12.2 9 763.2
EgyptJuly/June12 019.7 5.3 12 025.0 12 120.0 7 938.4 12.2 7 926.2
MoroccoJuly/June4 328.0 0.0 4 328.0 3 118.0 1 837.0 0.0 1 837.0
Eastern Africa  4 053.9 1 685.9 5 739.8 4 743.0 2 016.9 873.8 1 143.1
BurundiJan./Dec. 44.1 56.9 101.0 119.0 12.9 12.9 0.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 42.6 0.0 42.6 41.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 62.1 9.9 72.0 72.0 2.7 1.2 1.5
EritreaJan./Dec. 176.6 42.0 218.6 296.0 7.0 7.0 0.0
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 9.5 552.1 561.6 241.0 197.3 197.3 0.0
KenyaOct./Sept.1 140.0 230.7 1 370.7 1 182.0 465.4 172.3 293.1
RwandaJan./Dec. 168.2 32.4 200.6 210.0 14.2 9.6 4.6
SomaliaAug./July 317.3 102.7 420.0 440.0 164.5 112.4 52.1
SudanNov./Oct.1 225.0 508.8 1 733.8 1 380.0 592.3 281.6 310.7
UgandaJan./Dec. 124.7 116.5 241.2 180.0 39.4 39.4 0.0
United Rep.of TanzaniaJune/May 743.8 33.9 777.7 582.0 521.1 40.1 481.0
Southern Africa  3 810.9 456.9 4 267.8 3 045.0 2 835.0 323.4 2 511.6
AngolaApril/March 702.3 32.8 735.1 838.0 774.2 20.7 753.5
LesothoApril/March 193.7 15.6 209.3 213.0 182.9 7.9 175.0
MadagascarApril/March 279.8 34.7 314.5 305.0 230.1 32.7 197.4
MalawiApril/March 287.2 91.3 378.5 195.0 192.8 62.3 130.5
MozambiqueApril/March 945.6 107.0 1 052.6 845.0 836.4 96.4 740.0
SwazilandMay/April 106.5 15.3 121.8 127.0 125.8 3.8 122.0
ZambiaMay/April 167.9 68.3 236.2 100.0 76.1 22.9 53.2
ZimbabweApril/March1 127.9 91.9 1 219.8 422.0 416.7 76.7 340.0
Western Africa  10 889.6 448.7 11 338.3 10 782.6 1 323.6 334.1 989.5
Coastal Countries   8 555.5 172.3 8 727.8 8 195.1 784.7 81.4 703.3
BeninJan./Dec. 109.5 7.2 116.7 118.0 40.3 0.3 40.0
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 492.1 14.71 506.8 1 256.1 53.8 9.3 44.5
GhanaJan./Dec. 812.1 39.7 851.8 815.0 64.7 37.8 26.9
GuineaJan./Dec. 499.7 22.9 522.6 467.0 4.2 3.5 0.7
LiberiaJan./Dec. 205.8 58.8 264.6 265.0 42.7 12.6 30.1
NigeriaJan./Dec.5 080.0 0.05 080.0 4 880.0 560.9 0.0 560.9
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 260.3 28.7 289.0 299.0 17.9 17.9 0.0
TogoJan./Dec. 96.0 0.3 96.3 95.0 0.2 0.0 0.2
Sahelian Countries   2 334.1 276.4 2 610.5 2 587.5 538.9 252.7 286.2
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 294.0 26.4 320.4 348.1 35.8 22.7 13.1
Cape VerdeNov./Oct. 54.0 23.8 77.8 79.6 32.0 5.1 26.9
ChadNov./Oct. 68.8 50.4 119.2 110.0 62.2 55.3 6.9
GambiaNov./Oct. 105.7 7.6 113.3 114.7 21.0 4.8 16.2
Guinea-BissauNov./Oct. 70.8 4.4 75.2 85.7 6.6 5.6 1.0
MaliNov./Oct. 243.4 27.5 270.9 236.6 76.8 40.8 36.0
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 341.8 59.7 401.5 321.0 55.2 34.6 20.6
NigerNov./Oct. 252.7 62.1 314.8 292.4 71.2 71.0 0.2
SenegalNov./Oct. 902.9 14.5 917.4 999.4 178.1 12.8 165.3
Central Africa  1 549.7 112.3 1 662.0 1 567.0 52.3 40.4 11.9
CameroonJan./Dec. 619.3 7.0 626.3 630.0 9.7 0.0 9.7
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 40.6 11.1 51.7 47.0 11.7 11.7 0.0
CongoJan./Dec. 326.0 4.5 330.5 310.0 2.8 2.6 0.2
Dem.Rep.of the CongoJan./Dec. 521.9 88.7 610.6 545.0 28.1 26.1 2.0
Eq. GuineaJan./Dec. 27.5 0.0 27.5 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sao Tome and PrincipeJan./Dec. 14.4 1.0 15.4 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table A3. continued

Top
   2005/06 or 2006 2006/07 or 2007
  Actual imports Total import
requirements
(excl. re-
exports)
Import position 2
Marketing
year
Commercial
purchases
Food aid Total
commercial
and aid
Total
commercial
and aid
Food aid
allocated,
committed
or shipped
Commercial
purchases
ASIA   42 001.9 1 313.1 43 315.0 48 999.7 30 892.3 1 194.3 29 698.0
CIS in Asia   2 685.0 186.0 2 871.0 2 777.0 2 355.7 156.3 2 199.4
ArmeniaJuly/June 104.0 3.0 107.0 262.0 149.8 3.2 146.6
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 045.0 6.0 1 051.0 1 060.0 1 015.0 83.5 931.5
GeorgiaJuly/June 878.0 15.0 893.0 726.0 668.1 13.7 654.4
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 140.0 30.0 170.0 190.0 164.9 0.0 164.9
TajikistanJuly/June 226.0 132.0 358.0 281.0 249.9 55.9 194.0
TurkmenistanJuly/June 13.0 0.0 13.0 39.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UzbekistanJuly/June 279.0 0.0 279.0 219.0 108.0 0.0 108.0
Far East   27 612.3 973.0 28 585.3 35 927.7 23 683.2 878.4 22 804.8
BangladeshJuly/June2 867.0 183.0 3 050.0 3 350.0 1 560.0 240.6 1 319.4
BhutanJuly/June 70.7 0.3 71.0 71.0 0.4 0.4 0.0
CambodiaJan./Dec. 37.5 4.4 41.9 40.0 9.8 3.7 6.1
China July/June10 533.0 0.0 10 533.0 10 012.0 4 752.7 0.0 4 752.7
D.P.R. of KoreaNov./Oct. 94.3 534.5 628.8 960.0 455.4 411.4 44.0
IndiaApril/March 721.6 37.0 758.6 6 602.3 6 531.3 35.3 6 496.0
IndonesiaApril/March5 896.4 48.3 5 944.7 7 522.3 7 210.5 39.5 7 171.0
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 18.3 9.5 27.8 27.8 4.1 4.1 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 235.3 29.7 265.0 249.0 158.6 34.3 124.3
NepalJuly/June 130.5 9.7 140.2 280.0 7.6 7.6 0.0
Pakistan May/April 932.1 0.0 932.1 422.1 71.1 19.9 51.2
PhilippinesJuly/June4 835.0 71.0 4 906.0 5 181.2 2 845.8 76.6 2 769.2
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 190.6 45.6 1 236.2 1 150.0 75.9 5.0 70.9
Timor-LesteJuly/June 50.0 0.0 50.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Near East   11 704.6 154.1 11 858.7 10 295.0 4 853.4 159.6 4 693.8
AfghanistanJuly/June 433.4 47.6 481.0 740.0 225.4 145.1 80.3
IraqJuly/June5 980.2 28.8 6 009.0 4 430.0 2 922.3 7.4 2 914.9
Syrian Arab RepublicJuly/June2 267.8 7.0 2 274.8 2 300.0 1 405.0 7.1 1 397.9
YemenJan./Dec.3 023.2 70.7 3 093.9 2 825.0 300.7 0.0 300.7
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 534.6 222.6 1 757.2 1 705.0 1 242.7 270.3 972.4
HaitiJuly/June 576.7 80.3 657.0 680.0 482.4 144.9 337.5
HondurasJuly/June 623.8 105.3 729.1 720.0 469.0 50.6 418.4
NicaraguaJuly/June 334.1 37.0 371.1 305.0 291.3 74.8 216.5
SOUTH AMERICA   993.7 17.0 1 010.7 946.0 695.2 30.0 665.2
EcuadorJuly/June 993.7 17.0 1 010.7 946.0 695.2 30.0 665.2
OCEANIA   415.7 0.0 415.7 415.7 53.3 0.0 53.3
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 358.0 0.0 358.0 358.0 53.3 0.0 53.3
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
TongaJan./Dec. 6.4 0.0 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EUROPE   1 617.7 1.2 1 618.9 1 550.0 705.2 0.0 705.2
AlbaniaJuly/June 458.8 1.2 460.0 440.0 168.2 0.0 168.2
BelarusJuly/June 578.0 0.0 578.0 540.0 392.5 0.0 392.5
Bosnia and Herzegovina July/June 580.9 0.0 580.9 570.0 144.5 0.0 144.5
TOTAL   83 215.4 4 263.0 87 478.4 88 992.0 49 591.9 3 078.5 46 513.4
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 575 in 2004), which is in accordance with guidelines and criteria agreed to by the CFA should be given priority in the allocation of food aid.
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-April 2007

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