S P E C I A L   R E P O R T

FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENT MISSION

TO BANGLADESH

28 August 2008

• Mission Highlights
• 1. OVERVIEW
• 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING, FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND AGRICULTURE OVERVIEW
• 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2007/08 (NOVEMBER/OCTOBER)
• 4. FOOD SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE AND FOOD MARKET
• 5. HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY
• 6. RECOMMENDATIONS
• ANNEX 1      ANNEX 2     ANNEX 3     ANNEX 4     ANNEX 5

Mission Highlights

1. OVERVIEW

Bangladesh suffered from widespread monsoon floods, followed by a severe cyclone resulting in the loss of an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of Aman rice in 2007. Food security of the country has been significantly and adversely affected by rising food prices. At the request of the Ministry of Agriculture of Bangladesh, a joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 14 April to 6 May 2008. The overall objective of the assessment was to estimate/forecast the 2008 Boro rice production and food production situation, assess the food supply and demand situation at national and sub-national levels, market access and impact of high food prices on food utilization in the country at national, sub-national and household levels so that appropriate actions can be taken by the Government and the international community to minimize the impact of potential food crisis/insecurity.

The Mission held meetings with relevant institutions, including Government, international agencies, donors, non-Governmental organizations (NGOs) and the private sector. The Mission reviewed the crop production data from Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and collected available data and information on food security from different sources. The Mission was divided into four groups and visited 37 of the country’s 64 districts, located in all 10 development regions (see Table A1 and Map A1).

The Mission observed crop-growing conditions, examined the import supply situation and the area changes and yields under different categories and different regions. The Mission assessed the impact of the 2007 cyclone and floods on food production and availability in the worst-affected districts. Extensive interviews were conducted with farmers, millers, local Government officers, agricultural research institutes, seed and fertilizer companies and local NGOs regarding short- and long-term food production and supply problems. In addition, telephone interviews were conducted with Government officials in districts that the Mission could not visit and information of local extension offices of MoA was also used for the analysis of rice and other foodcrop production in these districts.

Extensive interviews were also conducted with households in urban and rural areas to obtain information on the impact of high food prices on income, food expenditure and food consumption. The Mission visited customs points along the Indian border and interviewed officers, traders (grain, vegetables, livestock and farm inputs) in Dhaka and Chittagong and local markets, millers and farmers in the fields to obtain first-hand information regarding formal and informal trade in food and agricultural inputs.

Prior to its departure to rural Bangladesh, the Mission held debriefing sessions with Government authorities, UN agencies and other development partners in Dhaka and also debriefed FAORAP in Bangkok.

We would like to thank officials from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management for their assistance to the Mission and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for its data support. We are grateful to Mr. Ad Spijkers, the project staff in the food policy project and FAO Office colleagues in Dhaka for their strong support. We also gratefully acknowledge the considerable efforts provided by all the twelve national consultants coordinated by Mr. Badrul Arefin from the Ministry of Agriculture. The same is true for the support of many technicians, scientists and scholars as well as the efficient logistics provided by WFP colleagues.

The Mission estimates a national average Boro rice yield of 3.78 t/ha, an increase of 9.05 percent above the national yield for the previous year of 3.52 t/ha. Rice production is estimated at 17.539 million tonnes, approximately 17 percent above the previous year and 29 percent over the five-year average. Aggregate rice production in 2007/08 (including 2007 Aman, 2008 Boro and Aus) is forecast at 28.849 million tonnes, some 5.6 percent above those in the previous year and 12.4 percent above the five-year average.

This increase of production was mainly due to favourable weather conditions and extra efforts made by farmers and the Government in response to the high rice prices and production loss of 1.4 million tonnes in 2007 Aman season following severe flooding and Cyclone Sidr. Due to damage to transplanted Aman by floods during the last season, farmers planted more area of Boro and inputs received for rehabilitation were used on the Boro crop. The high price of rice in the local market also influenced farmers to cultivate each and every available plot for Boro rice. There was a positive change in some districts to the use of Hybrid Varieties. The main varieties used were BRRI Dhan 29 and BRRI Dhan 28.

There was a small overall increase in the number of irrigation pumps and in irrigation coverage. Three to four instances of intermittent rains also assisted in providing water to the crop. The Mission noted that water is being wasted in some areas due to seepage from earth canals. Pre-cast canals would save considerable amounts of water, but they require considerable investment. The weather was favourable (intermittent rainfall and strong sunshine) throughout the growing season. Though some complaints were received from farmers concerning the shortage of electricity, Government efforts to direct electricity supplies to irrigation were generally successful and this provided irrigation at lower cost to farmers.

This season had a long cool period and wheat yields in 2008 were much improved at 2.584 t/ha compared to 2.053 t/ha the previous year, resulting in production of 955 963 tonnes, an increase of 190 915 tonnes, or almost 25 percent above the previous year’s harvest.

The area of land planted to maize has been increasing rapidly in recent years, from 121 962 ha in 2006 to 193 630 ha in 2007 to 342 614 ha in 2008. The crop can be grown throughout the year, but 95 percent is planted in the Rabi season from October to late-December. Production has also increased this year by 85.6 percent to 2 089 945 tonnes at a yield, estimated by the Mission, of 6.1 t/ha.

With total domestic rice and wheat availability and utilization assessed at 33.69 million tonnes and 37.26 million tonnes respectively, estimated required imports amount to 3.07 million tonnes. Taking into account the 2.57 million tonnes of commercial imports and the 155 000 tonnes of food aid received so far, there appears a gap of 345 000 tonnes that has to be filled somehow.

There appears to be a surplus of 469 000 tonnes of rice which will be used as a substitute for wheat imports. A similar exercise for wheat reveals a gap of 814 000 tonnes, bringing the deficit for both cereals to 345 000 tonnes after substituted 469 000 tonnes of rice surplus.

Concerning the cost of food items, the surge in rice prices in recent months has been the major cause for concern. Whole and retail prices of local coarse rice, the nation’s major food staple, have increased by 78 and 82 percent respectively, from June 2007 to June 2008, with the fastest acceleration –38 percent (wholesale) and 36 percent (retail) - occurring between October 2007 and March 2008.

This increase in rice prices is attributable to both internal and external factors. At the domestic level, severe floods that swamped large tracts of agricultural land in August and September 2007, and particularly Cyclone Sidr that hit the country the on 15 November caused extensive devastation to crops. Rising costs of key inputs such as fertilizers have also fuelled the rice price hike.

The Bangladesh rice market has not been insulated from developments in the rice supply/demand situation in neighbouring countries or the world rice and food market at large. Owing to the devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis to large tracts of its rice land on 3 May, Myanmar will not this season be able to honour commitments to export some 600 000 tonnes of the staple food - part of which was destined for Bangladesh - adding to the expectations of a further tightening of supplies in the region and worldwide. The upward pressure on prices has been exacerbated by export restriction measures adopted recently by some major rice producers. The rice prices in Bangladesh have been significantly affected by India’s minimum export prices of non-basmati rice since October 2007.

Rice is the staple food, contributing to over 63 percent of the caloric intake for urban consumers and over 71 percent for the rural population based on 2005 household survey data by BBS. The percentages are much higher for the poor. Food expenditures accounted for nearly 54 percent of total consumption expenditures, a share approaching 60 percent in rural areas. These data underscore the predicament not only of the 60 million Bangladeshi still struggling to climb out poverty, but of the millions more that soaring food prices are dragging below the poverty line. As the Mission observed, the hardest hit are fixed-income earners and rural households experiencing crop failure.

The consumer on a low-fixed income is bearing the brunt of price hikes. This indicates the need for expanded social safety nets to include those falling back into severe food insecurity and the poverty trap. Such programmes should be extended to villages that have suffered crop failure this season.

The prevalence of undernourishment in Bangladesh before the mid 2007 food price increase was already very high with approximately 27.9 million people estimated to have daily caloric intake less than 1805 kcal This population is estimated to be approximately 34.7 million now, nearly 7 million higher, primarily as a result of rising food prices.

Bangladesh’s food insecure population has become significantly larger, as a result of the rising food prices. The severity of food insecurity has also worsened. The average food consumption caloric “gap” has become larger, resulting in more severe deprivation. This is a major concern for food security going forward and presents a substantial challenge to Bangladesh’s social safety net system and the large population which it serves.

The country’s food insecure population is now estimated to be 65.3 million people; and has risen by 7.5 million largely because of the impact of higher food prices. Similarly, the size of the severely food insecure population has grown by an estimated 6.9 million; up from 27.9 million to a present level of 34.7 million. As a result, nearly half (45 percent) of the country’s 145 million population is now food insecure (< 2122 kcals/person/day), and nearly one-quarter (23.9 percent) of the population is understood as severely food insecure (consuming less than 1 805 kcals/person/day).

Due to the rise in food prices and other basic essentials, the GoB has announced a significant expansion of food security oriented safety net programmes in 2008/09. This was highlighted by many high-level GoB officials, including the Finance Advisor, in public addresses associated with the launching of the new fiscal-year 2008-09 GoB budget. The Mission estimates that approximately 68 million individuals would receive support from the GoB food assistance safety net programmes; under the assumption that the plan will be implemented (i.e. targets will be reached); implying 37.5 million people more than the 30.5 million estimate associated with fiscal year 2007-08.

Estimating the total number of individuals receiving assistance, through non Government programmes that have an explicit emphasis on facilitating food access, is problematic due to the large number of organizations involved, and more specifically because of data availability constraints. The Mission estimates that as many as 8.1 million people could be receiving assistance designed to address the food access gaps from non Government channels in 2008/09. The 8.1 million number represents about 12.4 percent of the estimated 65.3 million food insecure population.

The slightly improved current Boro season production does not fully compensate for the heavy losses some farmers suffered in the previous Aman season in the south and east of the country hit by the category 4 Cyone Sidr. The Mission estimates the aggregate 2008 rice output of Boro season of the nine affected districts at about 1 million tonnes, some 89 200 tonnes above or 10 percent higher than average. However, this increase is much smaller than the crops lost during Aman season (352 400 tonnes). The aggregate 2007/08 rice production in the flood and Cyclone Sidr affected districts is expected to be at 2.02 million tonnes, some 276 000 tonnes or 12 percent below average. Agriculture assistance, including seeds, fertilizers and tools in the worst-affected districts, and food aid/assistance programmes of WFP to vulnerable households of more than 1.5 million people will continue to be needed to the end of the year.

The producer prices of rice have been increased for Boro season. Wet paddy price in 2008 is BDT 18-20/kg compared to BDT 10-12 last year; milled rice prices vary from BDT 30-40 compared with BDT 15-16/kg last year. But due to sharecropping arrangements and lack of working capital which forces forward sales, many farmers did not get the full benefit of these price increases.

The rapid increase in the planting of hybrid varieties played a part in raising overall yields and production, but much remains to be done to ensure that farmers have access to seed of the highest genetic potential for their conditions.

Government and donor-supported Participatory Water Management Schemes have shown the way to better use of irrigation water and improved land management, especially in new lands in the south of the country.

Shortages of fertilizers, particularly TSP and MOP at planting time limited crop yields. It is absolutely essential, despite doubling or tripling of world fertilizer prices in 2008, that adequate quantities of all fertilizers are procured and distributed for the next cropping season.

The recent cyclone in Myanmar and the Sidr in Bangladesh underlines the need for national preparedness for such extreme weather events and for climate change risk.

2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING, FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND AGRICULTURE OVERVIEW

2.1 Socio-economic situation

Over the last two decades, Bangladesh has achieved steady economic growth coupled with impressive strides in poverty reduction. The GDP annual growth rate in the 1990s averaged over 4 percent, accelerating to about 6 percent since 2000. Per capita income advanced by 3.3 percent per year and overall poverty incidence fell by 13.1 percent during the same period, with a notable decline from 48.9 percent to 40 percent occurring between 2000 and 2005. The number of underweight children, a significant indicator for food security, has been reduced from 66 percent in 1990 to 48 percent in 2004.

Key factors underpinning such progress include:

• A robust and resilient agricultural sector which, despite its dwindling share in the GDP from 30.1 percent in 1991 to 20.1 percent in 2005 – a normal outcome in a genuine development process - has posted an average yearly growth rate of 4.8 percent in the past decade, aided by targeted research and extension, notably for rice, an extensive network of all-season rural infrastructure and other Government programmes. Steady growth in this sector, notwithstanding frequent climate-related disasters, has had positive implications for poverty reduction and food security as it supports 75 percent of the country’s population and directly employs about 50 percent of the labour force.

• Expansion of non-farm employment opportunities, such as in the ready-made garment industry (RMG) which employs about 2.6 million people, mostly women.

• Temporary labour migration and related remittances which in 2006 amounted to USD 5.48 billion, representing 11 percent of GDP and 35 percent of export earnings.

• Foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as private domestic investment spurred by a relatively conducive business investment climate, following liberalization policies initiated in the early 1990s, and a prudent monetary policy resulting in the reduction of inflation in recent years.

• The development of micro-credit by the Grameen Bank which is essentially owned by, and caters to, the poor. Its network of services extends to about 76 000 villages across the country and 96 percent of its 7 million borrowers are women.

• Social safety nets and other specific poverty reduction programmes such as the Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) which focuses on improving the nutritional status of the poorest rural women and their children. These Government-sponsored programmes are backed by donors, and UN agencies like WFP and UNICEF which, along with NGOs, play a major role in implementation.

• Government rice procurement and agricultural input subsidy programmes, to be discussed in more detail below.

Although hailed as one of the few countries most likely to achieve most of the MDGs by 2015, Bangladesh is aware that its path towards development is fraught with major constraints and uncertainties: Its resource base, notably agricultural land, is stretched to the limit, while population is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than in previous decades; non-farm employment opportunities are not being created fast enough to ease pressure on the land. The ready-made garment industry, a low-skill sector, may in future lose market share to cheaper and more efficient competitors like China. There is also concern about the medium- to long-term sustainability of subsidies to the agricultural sector, as they may divert resources from more productive programmes (e.g., maintenance of rural infrastructure, agricultural research and technology transfer), while further straining Government’s budget and the balance of payments. Still, the current account balance posted surpluses of USD 824 million and USD 952 million in 2005-06 and 2006-07, respectively, due in large part to migrant workers’ remittances. Indeed for fiscal 2006/07, the latter amounted to almost USD 6 billion, representing about 8.80 percent of GDP and 49 percent of total export earnings.

Strategies to overcome the constraints listed above and stay the course of robust economic growth and accelerated poverty reduction have been outlined in the Government’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and other documents such as the National Food Policy. They call for, among other things, increased productivity in agricultural and non-farm activities, the development of small and medium enterprises with specific focus on the promotion of agro-based industries, the diversification of agricultural production into higher value crop chains such as fruits and vegetables as well as the expansion of fisheries and livestock production, all of which imply the promotion of a knowledge-based, high-tech agriculture.

Table 1. Bangladesh: Key economic indicators, 2002-2008

2.2 Inflation, poverty and population

After reaching a trough of 1.94 percent in 2001, the overall price index has since been under upward pressure, reaching 8.95 percent in 2007/08 as can be seen in Table 1 above. Figure 1 shows that when the index is disaggregated into non-food and food items, it is mostly the latter that has been driving its ascending trend.

2.3 Agricultural sector

Land holding systems

It is estimated that 10 percent of farmers in Bangladesh own 50 percent of the land. About 60 percent of farmers are functionally landless and depend on sharecropping land owned by landlords. Average farm sizes are very small, too small to support a family adequately. In Dinajpur District the typical farm area is 21 decimals, i.e. 0.21 acres or less than 0.1 ha. Conversely, some farmers in Dinajpur own 50 acres and these farmers have the working capital to buy the best inputs. Apart from sharecroppers, approximately 20 percent of farmers are regarded as marginal and 20 percent are regarded as viable.

The Mission learned that sharecroppers bear all the costs of production of the rice crop and other crops, including water costs of 20-25 percent of the crop production. The sharecropper then shares 75-80 percent of the crop equally with the landlord, thereby receiving from 37.5-40 percent of the total crop for his work and investment. This is hardly equitable and its long term sustainability, with ever-smaller land parcels being cultivated with minimal inputs, thus depleting the land of all its fertility and organic matter, is questionable.

Sharecroppers often do not have the necessary collateral to obtain loans from commercial banks and this makes them dependent on local moneylenders who charge very high interest rates of typically 10 percent per month over the 3-4 month duration of the crop. Expenditure on improved seeds, adequate fertilization and necessary pesticides is curtailed under this system. Also, the sharecropper does not have the incentive to manage the land for the long-term, but instead farming it for maximum short-term gain. It is, therefore, little wonder that soil organic matter levels are declining as every available product of the land is utilized for food, animal feed and fuel, leaving little biological material on the soil to be recycled into soil organic matter.

Agricultural credit

Given the fact that up to 60 percent of farmers are functionally landless with little or no collateral, the possibility of obtaining agricultural credit for working capital is severely constrained. The Mission was informed that many farmers do not understand and cannot complete the paperwork involved in obtaining seasonal credit from commercial banks. Many farmers also have a history of credit default and so are not eligible for seasonal loans.

Commercial banks’ lending rate is 13 percent, and now 10 percent for crop loans, while concessionary rates are available for production of pulses and oilseeds. However, the lack of collateral, poor credit history of many smallholders prevents them from accessing the bank loans. Thus the prevalence of informal system lending, based essentially on in-kind transactions, with the possibility of the farmers/sharecroppers being exploited by money-lenders and traders.

Fertilizer supply

The main fertilizers in use are urea, triple superphosphate, muriate of potash and zinc sulphate. Smaller amounts of Diammonium Phosphate are also used as a source of N and P while, gypsum and sulphur and copper compounds are also used as large areas of the country are deficient in calcium, sulphur and copper. Most potash and phosphatic fertilizers are imported as there are almost no sources of these elements in Bangladesh.

Until 1991 the importation, distribution and marketing of all fertilizers were carried out by a parastatal organization, the Bangladesh Agriculture Development Corporation (BADC). Following several studies aimed at improving the supply of fertilizers, including one by the International Fertilizer Development Centre (IFDC), the Government changed the system and asked the private sector to import non-urea fertilizers. The Government appointed dealers at the district, upazila and union levels and these dealers kept stocks of urea obtained from the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) and non-urea fertilizers were procured from private importers. This system was changed in 2005 when the Government again asked BADC to import non-urea fertilizers along with private sector importers. Farm-level distribution is now controlled by the Government. The extension service is very heavily involved in the administration of fertilizer distribution and the administration of the fertilizer subsidy schemes and this takes them away from their normal work of providing farmers with technical advice. Many farmers and extension staff in private and public meetings across the country expressed dissatisfaction to the Mission with the current system of fertilizer distribution, noting that the system as currently managed is not achieving the objective of providing farmers with access to the right fertilizers in the right quantity at the right time.

The methods of selling fertilizers vary across districts and even across upzailas within districts. The tools applied include cards, slips, farmers’ lists or priority lists provided by local administration. In some districts fertilizers were only sold once a week and farmers had to queue for their allocation and many farmers reported that, despite losing several days of work, they failed to get any fertilizer and had to buy at high prices from private sources. Civil administrators such as District Commissioners reported spending over half their work time in fertilizer distribution to the detriment of their normal activities.

Focus group discussions with the Mission indicated that there were severe shortages of MOP and TSP at planting time, an example of which is indicated by data from Sherpur District, below:

Table 2. Fertilizer used by farmers in Sherpur District

Urea is produced locally using natural gas as a feedstock by BCIC in a number of factories. Urea production peaked at 2.1 million tonnes in 2002-03 and since then production has been falling and now ranges from 1.4-1.7 million tonnes per annum. This is due to reported gas shortages in the last six months combined with ageing manufacturing plant. The annual demand for urea is 2.8 million tonnes, of which the local factories can supply, at most, 1.8 million tonnes.

This year, while farmers had adequate supplies of urea available to them, not enough TSP and MOP were available and this resulted in some crops being planted without a basal dressing of P and K, which undoubtedly had an adverse effect on yields. However, the earlier crop of potatoes had been given liberal applications of TSP and MOP and it was expected that there would be some residual P and K available for the Boro rice crop. In addition, the floods and Cyclone Sidr which occurred in late 2007 deposited large quantities of nutrient-rich silt on Boro lands, somewhat offsetting the lack of a basal fertilizer dressing on some farms.

In common with the rest of the world, fertilizer prices in Bangladesh have risen very sharply during 2008. The cost of TSP and MOP rose from BDT 16 last year to BDT 50 and BDT 40 per kg, while the cost of urea was maintained at BDT 6 per kg by a high Government subsidy. Given the cropping intensity of farming in Bangladesh and the low soil organic matter content in the soils in many districts, it is absolutely essential that, despite the high international prices, sufficient supplies of the main fertilizers be maintained and that procurement decisions are made for supplies to be available well in advance of the next Boro crop.

Some respondents informed the Mission that it was necessary for Government involvement in fertilizer procurement and distribution to ensure fairness of distribution in a time of perceived fertilizer shortages. Having sufficient fertilizers at the right time, is not an option but a necessity for Bangladesh and despite high international prices for TSP and MOP, sufficient stocks must be procured well in advance of need. The Mission learned that there are adequate foreign exchange reserves available at present to finance the procurement of fertilizer for the coming year. It is vital that this procurement be made on time and that the distribution system is efficient and timely. Liberalization works if it is known that there are plenty of supplies, with competition between suppliers putting a brake on prices. Failure to provide sufficient fertilizer for a second year will compromise food security in the country and could further exacerbate already serious soil fertility and soil nutrient imbalances.

The Mission noted that broadcasting was the recommended method of applying both MOP and TSP fertilizers. Broadcasting is suitable for MOP, but not for TSP. This is because phosphate does not move in the soil and hence should be applied to the root zone of the plant where it is immediately available to the emerging roots. Placement of phosphate in this way would result in much better response and also it is possible that application rates of this expensive input could be reduced significantly while maintaining response to phosphate.

Also, it must be noted that having sufficient and balanced supplies of inorganic fertilizers will not alone provide sustainable food production into the future for Bangladesh’s high and growing population. The maintenance of adequate soil organic matter and the continued presence and healthy growth of sufficient beneficial soil micro-organisms and soil fauna are essential for sustainable productivity into the future. This will require the use of more organic manures, mulches, better crop rotations and the wide scale introduction of conservation agriculture technology into Bangladesh. The current land management system needs to be changed considerably if sustainable agricultural production is to be maintained.

Irrigation

With the exception of the haor areas of the country (8 percent), the upland dry season Boro rice crop in Bangladesh is dependent upon either surface or underground irrigation water. The number of irrigation units (DTW, STW and LLP) has been increased by 8 percent this year compared to the previous year and the area coverage of irrigation by 6 percent in the important rice growing districts in Rajshahi and Dhaka Divisions. With easy availability of irrigation appliances, farmers are becoming more independent for their water sources, so irrigation units are increasing in a faster way than the coverage. Area coverage is governed by the total rice land of the region which is not easy to expand.

Table 3. Irrigation changes in recent years in selected districts

Agricultural mechanization

Animal draught power has gradually been supplemented by the use of two-wheel tractors. However, there are opportunities to use these machines more widely for transport, for threshing and other agricultural tasks. Training in the maintenance of these machines is also recommended.

General crop production

Crop production in Bangladesh is focused mainly on rice production, with 79.4 percent of the land area under this crop. Three separate rice crops are recognized, the rainfed Aus crop with 10 percent of area, the rainfed Aman crop with about 51 percent and the increasingly important irrigated Boro crop with about 39 percent of the cropped area. Area, yield and production of Boro rice are expected to increase by 9.05 percent, 7.45 percent and 17.2 percent respectively, unless affected by harvest-time storms and rains.

As noted in the table below, little land is used to grow nutritionally important foods such as vegetables, fruits, pulses and oilseeds. Pulses and oilseeds have declined markedly over recent years, with pulse area declining from 696 000 ha in 1995-96 to 337 247 ha in 2005-06. Production of pulses declined from 523 000 tonnes to 279 000 tonnes in the eleven years to 2005-06.

Oilseed area declined from 554 656 ha to 342 105 ha during the same period, though production increased to 577 000 tonnes.

Table 4. Bangladesh: Percentage of land area planted to crops

Rape and mustard are the predominant oilseed crops with 78 percent of cropped area, while groundnut has 9.29 percent of the area allocated. The main pulses are lentils (40.17 percent), Khesari (38.8 percent), mung and gram (9.72 percent). The main fruits are banana (29 percent), mango (13.5 percent), pineapple (10 percent), jackfruit (3.9 percent) and other fruits (36.2 percent). The most important vegetables are aubergine (19.7 percent), pumpkin (6.7 percent), rum – Colocasia spp (8.18 percent) and tomato (6.1 percent).¹

Food production in the Aman season in 2007

The July/August 2007 floods affected some 11.4 million people and damaged 13 percent of the total rice crop. The districts most affected by the monsoon floods were Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Bogra, Serajganj, Pabna, Manikganj, Munshiganj, Faridpur, Madaripur, Shariatpur, Sherpur, Jamalpur, Tangail, Netrokona, Sunamganj and Sylhet.

Cyclone Sidr, a Category IV storm, with wind speeds of up to 240km/hour, struck Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. The districts most affected by Cyclone Sidr were Barguna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Jhalokati, and Patuakhali. Government estimates indicated that a total of 8.9 million people or nearly 2 million households were affected by Cyclone Sidr. In the five most affected districts some 18 percent of the poultry, 11 percent of goats and sheep, 7 percent of ducks and some 3 percent of the cattle and buffalos were lost. The FAO impact assessment reported that “up to 70 percent of the Aman season crops, mainly rice and grass pea, were damaged in the severely affected sub-districts and between 20-40 percent in the moderately damaged sub-districts.” For more data on the worst affected districts, see Table 6 below.

Nearly 1.5 million houses and some 4.1 million trees were damaged in addition to the loss of a large number of livestock, fish ponds and fishing boats and equipment. The Sunderban mangrove forests, a World Heritage Site and the largest in the world, incurred severe damage. In the Sundarbans some 4-5 percent (20-25 000 ha) of forest area was badly damaged and nearly 15 percent (60 000 ha) partially damaged. Some alien species, which had been planted in various parts of the Sundarbans on a pilot basis, were uprooted while in the severely-affected areas a large number of trees have been broken from the stem or uprooted.²

The Sundarbans form a natural buffer protecting millions of people in Bangladesh from the Bay of Bengal and provide critical breeding grounds for fisheries. In addition to significant environmental and ecological functions, the Sundarbans also play major social and economic functions and many communities depend on them for their livelihoods.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2007/08 (NOVEMBER/OCTOBER)

3.1 Factors affecting 2007/08 Boro crops

Area planted – comparison of BBS and DAE figures

Two sets of production data are prepared, by the Bangladesh Bureau of Standards (BBS) and the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE). The Mission noted major discrepancies and differences at district level between the two data sets in terms of area planted, yield estimates and other variables. In a few areas, such as Dinajpur, the DAE and BBS and the local provincial administration agree on a single data set. BBS does not have enough staff in the districts to carry out its cluster surveys and crop cuts in the required frequency. Greater cooperation and coordination between BBS and DAE in the gathering and compilation of agricultural statistics at district and upazila level is desirable.

Rainfall in 2007/08

Heavy flooding and Cyclone Sidr, which struck Bangladesh in November 2007 caused the loss of an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of rice. The Cyclone also delayed harvesting of potato and other crops, which in turn delayed transplanting of the Boro rice crop.

The Boro rice crop is irrigated and thus does not depend on rainfall. However, the 2007/08 Boro season was characterized by a few intermittent showers which improved water supplies and reduced water costs to this crop. The winter season had been cool with adequate rainfall for crop growth and this favoured the growth of wheat and potatoes, yields of which were markedly increased in many districts.

Irrigation

Considerable damage had been caused to irrigation infrastructure in the south of the country, but despite this the area under irrigation for Boro increased in most areas of the country. Efficiency of irrigation water usage is very low, at an estimated 28 percent, due to seepage from earth canals, though in some parts of the country Government and donor-funded community water management projects have improved the efficiency of irrigation and helped to improve essential maintenance of small- and large-scale irrigation infrastructure. In these areas, damage by flooding and Cyclone Sidr in 2007 was minimized, providing lessons for other areas of the country.

Some farmers in Rajshahi Division complained that there were insufficient supplies of electricity, the cheapest form of power for irrigation, but in general, Government efforts to ensure electricity supplies available for irrigation were successful. The Government also provided a subsidy on diesel costs of approximately BDT 450 per small farmer and this was also helpful as it put liquidity into the local economy. This subsidy scheme was administered by the DAE and this diverted staff from their normal extension work to a considerable extent.

Seeds

This season the use of hybrid varieties increased dramatically in many districts. These hybrid seeds are imported from China and there is some dispute about the amount of these imports, varying from 7 000–9 000 tonnes. The other main varieties grown were BR28 and BR29, both high yielding varieties which have been on the market for over 10 years. Use of low-yielding local varieties was minimal this season.

Some farmers are not familiar with the different management required by hybrid seed, especially the need to transplant early, at 30 days, not at 45 days, the period recommended for high-yielding varieties. Late transplanting of hybrids resulted in low rates of tillering, with some plants only having 6 tillers instead of the normal twenty. This resulted in lower yields on some farms.

The main HYV varieties, BRRI Dhan 28 and BRRI Dhan 29 are now over ten years old and replacements are needed. Also, new hybrid seed varieties need to be released at regular intervals to stay ahead of pest and disease attacks. There is much room for improvement in the provision of good seed in Bangladesh and more research is needed to develop improved varieties with good yield, disease and pest resistance. Various studies in Bangladesh have shown that there is a high cost/benefit ratio to investment in plant breeding and more such investment is needed now.

Agrochemicals

Farmers and extension staff remarked on the very low levels of pest and disease attacks on the Boro crop this season and this reduced the need for chemical spraying. Also, considerable efforts have been and are being made in the use of Integrated Pest Management to control pests without recourse to chemical pesticides. In Rajshahi Division, the DAE does not implement demonstrations of the correct use of pesticides, including herbicides. Use of herbicides is estimated at 10-15 percent of cropped rice area and farmers interviewed were familiar with a number of commercial herbicide products. Herbicides, especially pre-emergence herbicides, offer the possibility of increasing yields through prevention of weed competition.

There is a steady increase in the use of herbicides with many farmers consulted by the Mission being familiar with the use of three products, despite lack of overt extension support. The use of pre-emergence herbicides removes weed competition and enhances yields while reducing labour costs. As farmers are clearly using these products without advice from research or extension, it is desirable that research and extension should become familiar with their proper usage so that they can advise farmers to use the correct product for the weed flora in their areas

Pests and diseases

The most commonly seed diseases were Bacterial Leaf Streak and Bacterial Leaf Blight on hybrid rice. These diseases were exacerbated by the imbalance in the use of NPK fertilization. Some farmers in Bogra and Gaibandha used an antibiotic, Streptomycin, as a control measure, having heard of its use on Indian TV, but this practice was universally discouraged by extension officers. The use of Muriate of Potash as a spray at the rate of 1-5 kg/ha, with dressings of sulphur and copper containing supplements was advocated instead and good results were reported from these treatments with K of affected crops.

Damage by stem borers and other pests were reported to be minimal this season, with no spray treatments being required.

3.2 Rice yield and production in 2007/08 (November/October)

Table 5 presents area, yield and production of rice for Aman (2007), Boro (2008), and Aus (2008) and comparison with those of 2006/07 and five-year average. The district level estimate is reported in Table A3.

Yield and production of Boro rice in 2008

The Mission estimates a national average Boro rice yield of 3.78 t/ha, an increase of 9.05 percent above the national yield for the previous year of 3.52 t/ha (Table 5). Rice production is estimated at 17.539 million tonnes, approximately 17 percent above previous year and 29 percent over the five-year average.

The crop cut results of Nilphamari showed yield of BRRI Dhan 28 as 3.42 t/ha (clean rice) while in Sherpur the crop cut results for different varieties were 5.42 t/ha for hybrid and 4.67t/ha for HYV. A crop cut of BRRI Dhan 29 on a large farm in Tangail indicated a yield of 12.5 t/ha of paddy or 8.125t/ha of rice. This indicates the potential production if all inputs are available at the right time, in the right quantities and used properly.

Production forecast of Aus rice in 2008

According to IRRI, ”over the last three decades, the area under high-yielding Boro rice has increased from 0.8 to 3.4 million ha, at the expense of the very low-yielding and risky deepwater Aman and upland Aus rice crops. Over this period, the area under Aus rice has declined from 3.4 to 1.3 million ha and that of deepwater Aman rice from 2.1 to 0.7 million ha. However, Aman rice still covers 5.7 million ha. Recently, some Aus rice land has been diverted for the cultivation of high-value vegetable and fruit crops”³

The Aus rice crop is rainfed and planted in April/May and harvested in July and August. This year the area planted to Aus rice is estimated by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics at 1.041 million hectares, an increase of 135 145 ha, or 14.9 percent above last year’s area of 905 995 ha. Production is also forecast to be higher at 1.647 million tonnes, an increase of approximately 9 percent above the level of the previous year (Table 5).

Aggregate rice production in 2007/08

As shown in Table 5, aggregate rice production in 2007/08 (including 2007 Aman, 2008 Boro and Aus) is forecast at 28.849 million tonnes, some 5.6 percent above those in the previous year and 12.4 percent above the five-year average.

Table 5. Bangladesh: 2007/08 rice production forecast and comparison with the previous year and five-year average (area in ‘000 ha, yield in tonne/ha, production in ‘000 tonnes)

3.3 Boro and aggregate annual rice production in cyclone-affected districts in 2007/08 (November/October)

Overall, the 2008 Boro season is deemed to be a good one, though it must be considered that the two previous rice crops were badly damaged by floods and a cyclone. This Boro production does not fully compensate for the heavy losses some farmers suffered in the previous Aman season in the south and east of the country. In the cyclone-affected districts, production was slightly less than in the previous year, due to lack of fertilizer and improved inputs.

Flood and cyclone damage to the transplanted Aman rice crop in 2007 was estimated at up to over 50 percent in the worst affected areas (Table 6). Most districts are estimated to have a good production of Boro season, due to increased areas and favourable weather. Farmers made every effort to increase production of Boro rice. Increases in area came from former wheat land, river basins, dry ponds and planting along river banks. Some farmers planted hybrid seedlings which were over the recommended 30 days old and this resulted in poor tillering. TSP and MOP fertilizers were not always available, but farmers considered that heavy applications to the preceding mustard and potato crops and the nutrient rich silt brought down by the floods and Cyclone Sidr in 2007 were expected to compensate somewhat for fertilizer shortage for the Boro season. Pest and disease attacks were minimal this year due to favourable weather conditions.

The aggregate 2008 rice output of the Boro season of the 9 worst-affected districts is forecast at about 1 million tonnes, some 89 200 tonnes above or 10 percent higher than average. However, this increase is much smaller than the crops lost during the Aman season (352 400 tonnes). The aggregate 2007/08 rice production in the flood and Cyclone Sidr affected districts is expected to be at 2.02 million tonnes, some 276 000 tonnes or 12 percent below average.

Table 6. Rice production in the Cyclone Sidr-affected districts of Barisal Region (‘000 tonnes)

3.4 Other crops and livestock

The Department of Agricultural Extension has published the following statistics on area, yield and production of major crops for the period 2006-2008, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7. Area, yield and production of maize, wheat and potato (area in ‘000 ha, yield in tonne/ha, production in ‘000 tonnes)

Wheat

Wheat production has been declining over recent years, from 1.83 million tonnes in 2001-02 to 735 462 tonnes in 2005-06. This year, the area planted to wheat has declined by 2 798 ha or 7.5 percent compared to 2007 and the land was planted instead to Boro. The main reason for the decline in wheat area is weather, which in recent years has been blamed for low yields. If low temperatures are prolonged in the winter season, the yield of wheat is increased. If winter is short the yield declines because of the temperature sensitivity of this crop. This season had a long cool period and wheat yields in 2008 were much improved at 2.584 t/ha compared to 2.053 t/ha the previous year, resulting in production of 955 963 tonnes, an increase of 190 915 tonnes, or almost 25 percent above the previous year’s harvest.

Potato

According to DAE figures, potato area has increased by 38.2 percent this year to 520 447 ha with farmers planting the crop between transplanted Aman and Boro rice. The DAE estimates potato production this year at 9.236 million tonnes, an increase of 75.2 percent above that of the previous year. Higher prices for potatoes were the main influence in expanding area planted to this crop. A major concern is the availability of cold storage for potatoes, given that production has risen from 5.3 million tonnes to over 9 million tonnes this year.

Maize

The area of land planted to maize has been increasing rapidly in recent years, from 121 962 ha in 2006 to 193 630 ha in 2007 to 342 614 ha in 2008. The crop can be grown throughout the year, but 95 percent is planted in the Rabi season from October to late-December. Production has also increased this year by 85.6 percent to 2 089 945 tonnes at a yield, estimated by the Mission, of 6.1t/ha. Hybrid seed is used. With this level of yield, maize is a profitable crop and there is a very large demand for it as a component of poultry feed. Maize stover is a valuable livestock feed. Because of the high price of rice some poor farmers are mixing maize flour with wheat flour in making bread.

Livestock

Bangladesh, for its size, supports huge numbers of cattle, sheep, goats, poultry and ducks as shown in Table 8 below. Cattle and buffalo numbers rose by 2 840 434 heads or 16.5 percent from 1996 to 2005, while sheep and goat numbers increased from 14.61 million heads to 17.46 million, or 19.5 percent. Poultry and duck numbers rose spectacularly in the same period from 126.67 million to 188.4 million, or 48.7 percent.

Livestock are an important source of income and a store of value for the many millions of families that own them. They also provide milk, meat and eggs to supplement the generally poor diets of the people. However, extension staff noted that often well over 50 percent of cattle manure is dried and used for fuel, thereby further depleting the already low levels of organic matter in the soil. This is a serious problem, for without organic matter, the water and nutrient holding capacity of the soil is much reduced, lowering soil fertility.

Finding adequate forage for ruminants is a continuing problem, given the intensity of cultivation and the rapid increase in overall livestock numbers as shown in the Table below. Also, prices of poultry and other livestock feeds have risen in line with other grain products, threatening the economic viability of layer and broiler businesses throughout the country.

Avian influenza outbreaks were first reported in March 2007 and since then over 1.6 million birds have been culled at 546 farms in the country, including 504 commercial and 42 private or backyard farms. Avian flu has been reported from 47 of the 64 districts in Bangladesh⁴ and was quickly controlled by destroying affected birds and all other birds from surrounding farms. Training is being given to Livestock Extension Agents on Avian Influenza and the number of outbreaks continues to decrease.

Outbreaks of mucosal disease and Newcastle Disease are sporadic in the poultry flock. Peste de Petit Ruminants (PPR) was introduced to Bangladesh from Kenya in 1993 and now is a major disease of goats and sheep. Some farmers vaccinate their animals against the major diseases such as Black Quarter, which is an important disease of cattle.

No other major outbreaks of cattle, sheep or goat diseases were reported during the year. Staff of the Livestock Division consulted by the Mission noted lack of transport and equipment as constraints to their efforts to provide livestock extension and disease prevention and control services to meet the demands of livestock owners.

Table 8. Bangladesh: Livestock population (million)