No.1  February 2009  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

Countries in crisis requiring external assistance (total: 32 countries)

Food emergencies update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries’ food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical appendix

Note

Statistical appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
  Average     
2001/02 -     
  2005/06 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat31.428.828.925.422.728.8
Coarse grains18.219.118.215.015.418.0
Rice27.623.824.623.924.426.6
Total cereals24.223.022.819.919.423.0
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters’      
supplies to normal market requirements123137133115119123
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters’ stocks      
to their total disappearance     
Wheat20.321.822.214.811.017.7
Coarse grains15.318.717.912.512.815.3
Rice17.313.516.015.417.118.2
Total cereals17.618.018.714.313.617.1
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1998-2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
4. Changes in world cereal production1.39.4-1.1-2.16.06.6
       
5. Changes in cereal production       
in the LIFDCs1.33.65.03.13.43.4
       
6. Changes in cereal production in       
LIFDCs less China and India2.70.56.23.8-0.84.2
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2001/02 -
  2005/06 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09*
   (. . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat (July/June)116.3-1.05.225.487.3-19.5
Maize (July/June)103.7-15.26.444.633.319.9
Rice (Jan./Dec.)95.95.48.917.085.540.2
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States, and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to July/June 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For maize, the U.S. maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered U.S. Gulf ports) with base July/June, 1997/98-1999/00 = 100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 1998-2000=100, is based on 16 rice export quotations. Rice index refers to the second year shown.* For wheat and coarse grains, July/January, for rice January average.

Table A2. World cereal stocks1 ( million tonnes)
  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
estimate
2009
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 418.4 470.5 469.9 421.9 426.6 496.2
Wheat 162.7 178.9 179.5 156.7 147.4 183.1
held by:      
- main exporters 238.655.156.236.527.147.0
- others165.3123.7123.3120.2120.3136.1
Coarse grains 150.4 191.7 185.3 160.6 169.8 195.8
held by:      
- main exporters248.592.790.762.373.484.5
- others107.699.094.698.396.4111.3
Rice (milled basis) 105.3 99.9 105.2 104.6 109.3 117.4
held by:      
- main exporters222.519.323.423.125.928.4
- others97.380.781.781.583.489.0
Developed countries 123.3 188.6 189.8 133.3 124.0 168.1
Australia8.810.013.56.24.75.4
Canada10.314.516.210.59.011.7
European Union 321.547.645.132.731.244.1
Hungary 40.8-----
Japan4.94.74.84.44.23.9
Poland 42.4-----
Romania 51.25.05.63.8--
Russian Federation7.39.19.37.05.512.0
South Africa3.54.14.12.71.83.7
Ukraine2.84.24.84.23.37.9
United States44.474.771.749.954.368.3
Developing countries 295.1 281.9 280.1 288.6 302.5 328.1
Asia 253.8 237.3 237.7 242.9 263.0 284.6
China163.3152.8149.0152.8168.6189.6
India32.926.725.828.535.938.9
Indonesia6.05.75.15.86.77.1
Iran, Islamic Republic of3.53.23.63.53.01.9
Korea, Republic of2.92.52.82.92.93.0
Pakistan2.22.13.22.52.93.1
Philippines1.92.32.92.83.43.5
Syrian Arab Republic4.24.54.63.32.52.1
Turkey7.26.55.66.24.72.8
Africa 21.1 23.6 25.4 29.8 24.2 23.5
Algeria2.63.64.44.74.64.2
Egypt2.73.14.54.53.93.7
Ethiopia0.10.10.10.20.80.7
Morocco3.04.82.64.02.12.0
Nigeria1.61.31.42.10.91.1
Tunisia1.01.21.41.31.91.3
Central America 5.9 6.3 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.6
Mexico3.94.62.92.92.82.8
South America 14.0 14.4 11.9 10.6 10.3 15.3
Argentina3.83.22.61.63.03.4
Brazil6.06.64.53.62.26.7
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 to 2007 25 member countries, from 2008 27 member countries.
4 From 2005 included in the EU.
5 From 2008 included in the EU.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.

Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains ( USD/tonne)
  Wheat Maize Sorghum
  US No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord. Prot.
1
US Soft Red
Winter No.2
2
Argentina
Trigo Pan
3
US No.2
Yellow
2
Argentina 3 US No.2
Yellow
2
Period
 
Annual (July/June )      
2003/04161149154115109118
2004/05154138123979099
2005/06175138138104101108
2006/07212176188150145155
2007/08361311318200192206
Monthly      
2008 – January 381 343 330 206 199 225
2008 – February 449 403 365 220 206 222
2008 – March 481 397 395 234 216 233
2008 – April 382 301 - 247 224 243
2008 – May 349 258 - 242 207 240
2008 – June 358 249 363 281 258 268
2008 – July 341 245 329 267 252 232
2008 – August 343 253 307 232 217 209
2008 – September 308 222 280 229 203 208
2008 – October 252 183 235 181 169 158
2008 – November 247 182 189 166 156 146
2008 – December 240 182 177 160 152 151
2009– January 256 193 213 172 160 148
1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf.
2 Delivered United States Gulf.
3 Up River f.o.b.
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.

Table A4a. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2008/09 or 2009 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 or 2008 2008/09 or 2009
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  36 539.8 2 438.4 38 978.2 41 010.5 12 265.1 1 308.1 10 957.0
North Africa   18 193.0 0.0 18 193.0 18 242.0 8 629.6 0.0 8 629.6
EgyptJuly/June11 872.0 0.0 11 872.0 12 121.0 6 654.0 0.0 6 654.0
MoroccoJuly/June6 321.0 0.0 6 321.0 6 121.0 1 975.6 0.0 1 975.6
Eastern Africa  4 015.2 1 516.8 5 532.0 5 910.0 1 696.5 929.6 766.9
BurundiJan./Dec. 117.5 21.5 139.0 139.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 42.0 0.0 42.0 47.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 98.6 11.4 110.0 87.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EritreaJan./Dec. 171.0 5.9 176.9 291.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 315.5 626.5 942.0 616.0 610.0 390.0 220.0
KenyaOct./Sept. 996.3 197.21 193.5 1 990.0 298.2 100.2 198.0
RwandaJan./Dec. 133.9 19.1 153.0 157.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SomaliaAug./July 381.2 90.8 472.0 600.0 241.5 225.3 16.2
SudanNov./Oct.1 128.0 416.01 544.0 1 401.0 282.3 187.8 94.5
UgandaJan./Dec. 105.1 83.9 189.0 175.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United Rep. of TanzaniaJune/May 526.1 44.5 570.6 407.0 264.5 26.3 238.2
Southern Africa  2 670.0 482.5 3 152.5 4 013.0 1 850.6 335.0 1 515.6
AngolaApril/March 768.6 5.8 774.4 762.0 250.1 0.0 250.1
LesothoApril/March 201.9 24.2 226.1 220.0 111.4 0.1 111.3
MadagascarApril/March 251.0 61.0 312.0 366.0 187.0 6.6 180.4
MalawiApril/March 125.2 56.8 182.0 150.0 100.4 27.7 72.7
MozambiqueApril/March 688.8 62.1 750.9 933.0 404.4 76.1 328.3
SwazilandMay/April 128.1 17.2 145.3 142.0 46.5 0.5 46.0
ZambiaMay/April 55.6 4.4 60.0 186.0 60.2 4.3 55.9
ZimbabweApril/March 450.8 251.0 701.8 1 254.0 690.6 219.7 470.9
Western Africa  10 153.2 328.9 10 482.1 11 067.5 81.2 43.5 37.7
Coastal Countries   7 580.4 101.0 7 681.4 8 408.0 15.3 0.0 15.3
BeninJan./Dec. 67.0 3.0 70.0 72.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 134.0 11.51 145.5 1 160.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
GhanaJan./Dec. 819.3 13.1 832.4 985.0 15.0 0.0 15.0
GuineaJan./Dec. 456.9 18.5 475.4 509.0 0.3 0.0 0.3
LiberiaJan./Dec. 206.7 38.3 245.0 270.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NigeriaJan./Dec.4 680.0 0.04 680.0 5 180.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 126.9 12.1 139.0 139.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TogoJan./Dec. 89.6 4.5 94.1 93.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sahelian Countries   2 572.8 227.9 2 800.7 2 659.5 65.9 43.5 22.4
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 282.2 20.8 303.0 288.0 5.3 5.3 0.0
Cape VerdeNov./Oct. 68.5 7.7 76.2 72.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
ChadNov./Oct. 53.0 67.4 120.4 118.5 9.8 9.8 0.0
GambiaNov./Oct. 101.0 2.8 103.8 109.5 0.6 0.6 0.0
Guinea-BissauNov./Oct. 99.4 7.0 106.4 95.0 0.6 0.6 0.0
MaliNov./Oct. 215.9 8.0 223.9 268.0 1.2 1.2 0.0
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 366.5 45.3 411.8 367.8 23.1 15.7 7.4
NigerNov./Oct. 335.2 53.4 388.6 310.0 4.6 4.6 0.0
SenegalNov./Oct.1 051.1 15.5 1 066.6 1 030.7 20.6 5.6 15.0
Central Africa  1 508.4 110.2 1 618.6 1 778.0 7.2 0.0 7.2
CameroonJan./Dec. 537.0 9.1 546.1 620.0 7.2 0.0 7.2
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 38.0 13.8 51.8 55.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CongoJan./Dec. 312.5 2.5 315.0 323.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dem.Rep.of the Congo Jan./Dec. 584.9 83.8 668.7 741.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Equatorial GuineaJan./Dec. 24.0 0.0 24.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sao Tome and PrincipeJan./Dec. 12.0 1.0 13.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table A4b. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2008/09 or 2009 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 or 2008 2008/09 or 2009
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA   38 140.0 1 425.0 39 565.0 42 767.0 13 928.9 816.1 13 112.8
CIS in Asia   3 723.4 34.6 3 758.0 4 141.0 1 387.4 31.1 1 356.3
ArmeniaJuly/June 378.4 4.6 383.0 355.0 224.1 1.6 222.5
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 347.2 2.8 1 350.0 1 156.0 764.7 0.8 763.9
GeorgiaJuly/June 817.9 8.1 826.0 886.0 225.7 7.2 218.5
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 330.0 0.0 330.0 316.0 8.9 0.0 8.9
TajikistanJuly/June 439.9 19.1 459.0 558.0 60.4 21.5 38.9
TurkmenistanJuly/June 272.0 0.0 272.0 610.0 9.6 0.0 9.6
UzbekistanJuly/June 138.0 0.0 138.0 260.0 94.0 0.0 94.0
Far East   23 533.4 1 209.8 24 743.2 23 261.0 8 074.0 567.6 7 506.4
BangladeshJuly/June2 986.6 344.3 3 330.9 3 294.2 1 241.6 75.3 1 166.3
BhutanJuly/June 71.0 0.0 71.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CambodiaJan./Dec. 33.8 6.4 40.2 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China (Mainland)July/June1 810.0 0.0 1 810.0 1 567.0 336.1 0.0 336.1
D.P.R. of KoreaNov./Oct. 770.0 728.3 1 498.3 1 786.0 450.0 450.0 0.0
IndiaApril/March2 078.4 21.6 2 100.0 600.0 62.3 6.7 55.6
IndonesiaApril/March7 528.6 16.0 7 544.6 6 544.4 2 489.7 0.0 2 489.7
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 21.4 6.9 28.3 17.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 290.8 5.0 295.8 274.0 45.7 0.0 45.7
NepalJuly/June 173.8 16.2 190.0 240.0 26.9 1.9 25.0
Pakistan May/April1 519.5 2.1 1 521.6 2 521.0 1 956.8 30.9 1 925.9
PhilippinesJuly/June5 016.5 16.9 5 033.4 5 026.0 1 464.9 2.8 1 462.1
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 172.0 46.1 1 218.1 1 220.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Timor-LesteJuly/June 61.0 0.0 61.0 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Near East   10 883.2 180.6 11 063.8 15 365.0 4 467.5 217.4 4 250.1
AfghanistanJuly/June 856.2 151.5 1 007.7 2 340.0 284.5 193.1 91.4
IraqJuly/June4 623.0 9.0 4 632.0 5 040.0 1 914.7 14.7 1 900.0
Syrian Arab Republic July/June2 564.0 8.2 2 572.2 4 915.0 2 268.3 9.6 2 258.7
YemenJan./Dec.2 840.0 11.9 2 851.9 3 070.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 513.7 147.3 1 661.0 1 725.0 705.1 115.9 589.2
HaitiJuly/June 515.4 77.8 593.2 635.0 272.6 91.6 181.0
HondurasJuly/June 655.2 25.6 680.8 695.0 285.6 6.5 279.1
NicaraguaJuly/June 343.1 43.9 387.0 395.0 146.9 17.8 129.1
OCEANIA   437.7 0.0 437.7 437.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 380.0 0.0 380.0 380.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
TongaJan./Dec. 6.4 0.0 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EUROPE   1 606.1 45.9 1 652.0 1 230.0 353.5 0.0 353.5
AlbaniaJuly/June 480.0 0.0 480.0 440.0 99.7 0.0 99.7
BelarusJuly/June 361.0 0.0 361.0 150.0 121.5 0.0 121.5
Bosnia and Herzegovina July/June 475.0 0.0 475.0 590.0 94.0 0.0 94.0
Republic of MoldovaJuly/June 290.1 45.9 336.0 50.0 38.3 0.0 38.3
TOTAL   78 237.3 4 056.6 82 293.9 87 170.2 27 252.6 2 240.1 25 012.5
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 675 in 2005).
2 Estimates based on information available as of mid-January 2009.

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