No.3  July 2009  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE1 (total: 30 countries)

Food emergencies update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

Special feature: Domestic food prices in developing countries
remain very high

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical Appendix

Note

Statistical Appendix

Table A1. Global cereal supply and demand indicators
  Average     
2002/03 -     
  2006/07 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
1. Ratio of world stocks to utilization      
Wheat28.828.926.123.628.829.7
Coarse grains17.018.215.516.619.617.8
Rice25.324.523.824.326.227.6
Total cereals22.322.720.320.223.623.2
       
       
2. Ratio of major grain exporters'      
supplies to normal market requirements123133116119124116
       
       
3. Ratio of major exporters' stocks      
to their total disappearance     
Wheat20.322.214.810.916.716.2
Coarse grains15.217.712.214.116.313.3
Rice17.416.115.417.018.318.2
Total cereals17.618.714.114.017.115.9
       
       
  Annual trend Change from previous year
  growth rate
  1999-2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  ( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
4. Changes in world cereal production2.1-1.0-1.65.57.1-3.4
       
5. Changes in cereal production       
in the LIFDCs1.75.14.42.24.30.9
       
6. Changes in cereal production in       
LIFDCs less China and India3.36.74.4-1.05.74.6
       
       
  Average Change from previous year
  2002-2006 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
   (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )
7. Selected cereal price indices:      
Wheat104.6-1.417.149.131.5-43.1
Maize101.7-12.123.334.136.5-28.0
Rice112.35.79.917.383.7-7.9
Notes:
Utilization is defined as the sum of food use, feed and other uses.
Cereals refer to wheat, coarse grains and rice; Grains refer to wheat and coarse grains.
Major Grain Exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and the United States; Major Rice Exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United
States and Viet Nam.
Normal Market Requirements for major grain exporters are defined as the average of domestic utilization plus exports in the three preceding seasons.
Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.
Price indices: The wheat price index has been constructed based on the IGC wheat price index, rebased to 2002-2004 = 100; For maize, the US maize No. 2 Yellow (delivered US Gulf ports) with base 2002-2004 = 100; For rice, the FAO Rice Price Index, 2002-2004 = 100, is based on 16 rice export quotations.* January - June average.


Table A2. World cereal stocks1 ( million tonnes)
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
estimate
2010
forecast
TOTAL CEREALS 470.2 469.2 430.5 445.0 523.8 517.2
Wheat 178.6 179.5 160.9 151.8 186.8 191.9
held by:      
- main exporters 255.156.236.526.944.941.5
- others165.3123.4124.4124.9141.9150.4
Coarse grains 191.7 184.8 165.4 184.0 217.9 201.0
held by:      
- main exporters292.790.160.879.990.373.3
- others107.694.8104.6104.1127.6127.7
Rice (milled basis) 99.9 104.9 104.2 109.2 119.2 124.3
held by:      
- main exporters219.323.423.125.828.828.8
- others97.381.581.183.390.495.5
Developed countries 188.6 189.2 131.2 131.2 168.3 149.4
Australia10.013.56.35.45.65.7
Canada14.516.210.58.78.37.7
European Union 347.644.431.137.654.850.1
Hungary 4------
Japan4.74.84.44.03.93.9
Poland 4------
Romania 55.05.63.8---
Russian Federation9.19.37.05.513.313.3
South Africa4.14.12.71.82.52.8
Ukraine4.24.84.23.75.15.0
United States74.771.749.954.364.250.6
Developing countries 281.6 280.1 299.3 313.8 355.5 367.8
Asia 237.4 237.9 254.0 273.6 308.5 323.8
China152.8149.0163.0179.2206.8222.0
India26.725.828.535.639.438.3
Indonesia5.75.15.86.78.810.3
Iran, Islamic Republic of3.23.63.52.93.73.9
Korea, Republic of2.52.52.52.72.62.5
Pakistan2.13.22.52.83.13.0
Philippines2.32.92.83.44.03.8
Syrian Arab Republic4.34.43.72.72.32.2
Turkey6.76.07.05.24.24.1
Africa 23.4 25.2 29.7 25.6 25.4 25.5
Algeria3.64.44.75.24.64.5
Egypt3.14.54.64.14.94.9
Ethiopia0.10.10.21.10.70.4
Morocco4.82.64.02.11.73.3
Nigeria1.31.42.11.01.31.3
Tunisia1.21.41.31.91.71.2
Central America 6.3 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.4
Mexico      
South America 14.2 11.9 10.3 9.6 16.8 13.9
Argentina3.22.61.62.53.62.6
Brazil6.64.53.62.28.66.9
1 Stock data are based on an aggregate of carryovers at the end of national crop years and do not represent world stock levels at any point in time.
2 The major wheat and coarse grains exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU and the United States. The major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Viet Nam.
3 Up to 2004 15 member countries, from 2005 to 2007 25 member countries, from 2008 27 member countries.
4 From 2005 included in the EU.
5 From 2008 included in the EU.
Note: Based on official and unofficial estimates. Totals computed from unrounded data.


Table A3. Selected international prices of wheat and coarse grains ( USD/tonne)
  Wheat Maize Sorghum
  US No.2 Hard
Red Winter Ord. Prot.
1
US Soft Red
Winter No.2
2
Argentina
Trigo Pan
3
US No.2
Yellow
2
Argentina 3 US No.2
Yellow
2
Period
 
Annual (July/June )      
2003/04161149154115109118
2004/05154138123979099
2005/06175138138104101108
2006/07212176188150145155
2007/08361311318200192206
2008/09270201234188180170
Monthly      
2007 - July 250223249146141157
2007 - August277254273152157171
2007 - September343323325158170177
2007 - October 352323321163180172
2007 - November332307290171179171
2007 - December 381345310179171192
2008 - January381343330206199225
2008 - February449403365220207222
2008 - March482397395234216233
2008 - April382301-248224243
2008 - May349258-242207240
2008 - June 358249363281258268
2008 - July 341245329267252232
2008 - August343253307232217209
2008 - September308222280229203208
2008 - October 252183235181169158
2008 - November247182189166156146
2008 - December 240182177160152151
2009 - January256193213172160148
2009 - February241183218163158145
2009 - March244186214165163153
2009 - April242180211168166149
2009 - May265201210180186167
2009 - June 263201228177185167
2009 - July (one week average)228171230148166141
1 Delivered United States f.o.b Gulf.
2 Delivered United States Gulf.
3 Up River f.o.b.
Sources: International Grain Council and USDA.


Table A4a. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2008/09 or 2009 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 or 2008 2008/09 or 2009
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
AFRICA  37 410.8 2 812.3 40 223.1 41 958.5 29 980.8 1 887.8 28 093.0
North Africa   18 260.1 0.0 18 260.1 18 691.0 18 146.3 0.0 18 146.3
EgyptJuly/June11 873.7 0.0 11 873.7 13 170.0 13 050.0 0.0 13 050.0
MoroccoJuly/June6 386.4 0.0 6 386.4 5 521.0 5 096.3 0.0 5 096.3
Eastern Africa  4 414.2 1 789.0 6 203.2 6 577.0 4 694.7 1 167.3 3 527.4
BurundiJan./Dec. 116.0 23.1 139.1 150.0 11.1 10.1 1.0
ComorosJan./Dec. 45.3 0.0 45.3 47.0 6.0 0.0 6.0
DjiboutiJan./Dec. 126.8 9.3 136.1 103.0 37.2 5.0 32.2
EritreaJan./Dec. 187.3 17.2 204.5 319.0 28.3 0.0 28.3
EthiopiaJan./Dec. 588.5 896.41 484.9 656.0 478.6 258.6 220.0
KenyaOct./Sept.1 010.2 197.21 207.4 2 121.0 1 768.6 142.9 1 625.7
RwandaJan./Dec. 146.4 11.3 157.7 170.0 51.6 20.7 30.9
SomaliaAug./July 381.9 90.1 472.0 760.0 469.1 386.1 83.0
SudanNov./Oct.1 138.8 416.21 555.0 1 404.0 1 154.6 293.1 861.5
UgandaJan./Dec. 146.9 83.9 230.8 145.0 44.1 3.8 40.3
United Rep. of TanzaniaJune/May 526.1 44.3 570.4 702.0 645.5 47.0 598.5
Southern Africa  2 741.4 523.1 3 264.5 3 695.4 3 695.4 458.7 3 236.7
AngolaApril/March 768.6 5.8 774.4 833.8 833.8 0.0 833.8
LesothoApril/March 201.9 24.2 226.1 202.8 202.8 0.3 202.5
MadagascarApril/March 277.0 61.0 338.0 217.0 217.0 10.7 206.3
MalawiApril/March 125.3 56.8 182.1 186.2 186.2 64.9 121.3
MozambiqueApril/March 688.9 62.1 751.0 974.6 974.6 85.1 889.5
SwazilandMay/April 123.1 22.2 145.3 128.0 128.0 6.0 122.0
ZambiaMay/April 55.2 4.4 59.6 139.8 139.8 6.6 133.2
ZimbabweApril/March 501.4 286.6 788.0 1 013.2 1 013.2 285.1 728.1
Western Africa  10 440.1 390.4 10 830.5 11 186.7 3 022.6 178.4 2 844.2
Coastal Countries   7 886.3 148.6 8 034.9 8 528.3 1 922.6 44.7 1 877.9
BeninJan./Dec. 63.8 6.3 70.1 72.0 34.0 2.0 32.0
Côte d'IvoireJan./Dec.1 182.4 11.51 193.9 1 240.0 283.0 4.9 278.1
GhanaJan./Dec. 804.0 29.8 833.8 990.0 134.7 7.0 127.7
GuineaJan./Dec. 456.9 35.4 492.3 509.0 44.1 11.7 32.4
LiberiaJan./Dec. 214.8 38.3 253.1 270.0 54.0 5.4 48.6
NigeriaJan./Dec.4 865.1 0.04 865.1 5 180.0 1 329.8 0.0 1 329.8
Sierra LeoneJan./Dec. 209.6 22.7 232.3 174.0 22.6 12.6 10.0
TogoJan./Dec. 89.7 4.6 94.3 93.3 20.4 1.1 19.3
Sahelian Countries   2 553.8 241.8 2 795.6 2 658.4 1 100.0 133.7 966.3
Burkina fasoNov./Oct. 282.2 23.1 305.3 289.0 60.6 21.0 39.6
ChadNov./Oct. 56.4 67.3 123.7 146.0 103.1 68.1 35.0
GambiaNov./Oct. 101.0 2.8 103.8 109.5 29.4 0.8 28.6
Guinea-BissauNov./Oct. 117.7 7.0 124.7 95.0 30.4 1.6 28.8
MaliNov./Oct. 217.9 8.0 225.9 273.6 75.1 7.8 67.3
MauritaniaNov./Oct. 369.9 60.4 430.3 404.0 296.0 17.0 279.0
NigerNov./Oct. 341.4 55.1 396.5 310.0 64.1 12.9 51.2
SenegalNov./Oct.1 067.3 18.1 1 085.4 1 031.3 441.3 4.5 436.8
Central Africa  1 555.0 109.8 1 664.8 1 808.4 421.8 83.4 338.4
CameroonJan./Dec. 570.5 8.6 579.1 623.0 179.7 2.5 177.2
Cent.Afr.Rep.Jan./Dec. 41.5 14.4 55.9 60.4 20.2 15.6 4.6
CongoJan./Dec. 312.0 2.5 314.5 325.0 67.1 1.3 65.8
Dem.Rep.of the Congo Jan./Dec. 591.8 76.9 668.7 761.0 140.1 63.7 76.4
Equatorial GuineaJan./Dec. 26.8 0.0 26.8 25.0 10.9 0.0 10.9
Sao Tome and PrincipeJan./Dec. 12.4 7.4 19.8 14.0 3.8 0.3 3.5


Table A4b. Cereal import requirements of Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries1 , 2008/09 or 2009 estimates ( thousand tonnes)
   2007/08 or 2008 2008/09 or 2009
   Actual imports Total import requirements (excl. re-exports) Import position 2
  Marketing
year
Commercial purchases Food aid Total commercial and aid Total commercial and aid Food aid allocated, committed
or shipped
Commercial purchases
ASIA   37 535.5 1 438.6 38 974.1 44 384.1 32 318.2 899.2 31 419.0
CIS in Asia   3 723.6 37.4 3 761.0 4 547.0 3 207.7 61.2 3 146.5
ArmeniaJuly/June 378.6 7.4 386.0 355.0 343.7 1.6 342.1
AzerbaijanJuly/June1 347.2 2.8 1 350.0 1 500.0 1 429.9 0.8 1 429.1
GeorgiaJuly/June 817.9 8.1 826.0 886.0 457.4 15.5 441.9
KyrgyzstanJuly/June 330.0 0.0 330.0 316.0 175.4 4.8 170.6
TajikistanJuly/June 439.9 19.1 459.0 620.0 614.0 38.5 575.5
TurkmenistanJuly/June 272.0 0.0 272.0 610.0 37.3 0.0 37.3
UzbekistanJuly/June 138.0 0.0 138.0 260.0 150.0 0.0 150.0
Far East   23 230.5 1 215.6 24 446.1 24 047.1 19 190.2 506.4 18 683.8
BangladeshJuly/June3 017.6 313.3 3 330.9 3 150.0 3 342.5 226.3 3 116.2
BhutanJuly/June 71.0 0.0 71.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CambodiaJan./Dec. 32.6 7.6 40.2 40.0 3.8 0.8 3.0
China (Mainland)July/June1 493.0 0.0 1 493.0 2 006.0 1 344.2 0.0 1 344.2
D.P.R. of KoreaNov./Oct. 735.2 763.1 1 498.3 1 786.4 287.4 158.6 128.8
IndiaApril/March2 078.1 21.9 2 100.0 601.9 601.9 22.4 579.5
IndonesiaApril/March7 528.6 16.0 7 544.6 5 745.3 5 745.3 0.0 5 745.3
Lao, P.D.R.Jan./Dec. 20.9 7.4 28.3 17.4 2.1 2.1 0.0
MongoliaOct./Sept. 290.8 5.0 295.8 266.0 179.0 16.9 162.1
NepalJuly/June 173.8 16.2 190.0 240.0 48.5 23.5 25.0
Pakistan May/April1 519.5 2.1 1 521.6 3 123.1 3 123.1 38.7 3 084.4
PhilippinesJuly/June5 033.4 16.9 5 050.3 5 717.0 4 132.9 9.9 4 123.0
Sri LankaJan./Dec.1 175.0 46.1 1 221.1 1 220.0 379.5 7.2 372.3
Timor-LesteJuly/June 61.0 0.0 61.0 63.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Near East   10 581.4 185.6 10 767.0 15 790.0 9 920.3 331.6 9 588.7
AfghanistanJuly/June 856.0 156.1 1 012.1 2 340.0 1 412.1 297.5 1 114.6
IraqJuly/June4 322.7 9.0 4 331.7 5 090.0 2 817.4 21.7 2 795.7
Syrian Arab Republic July/June2 563.1 8.4 2 571.5 5 290.0 4 440.3 9.6 4 430.7
YemenJan./Dec.2 839.6 12.1 2 851.7 3 070.0 1 250.5 2.8 1 247.7
CENTRAL AMERICA   1 497.2 163.8 1 661.0 1 790.0 1 198.0 143.6 1 054.4
HaitiJuly/June 501.3 91.9 593.2 654.0 475.8 116.1 359.7
HondurasJuly/June 652.8 28.0 680.8 741.0 503.3 8.3 495.0
NicaraguaJuly/June 343.1 43.9 387.0 395.0 218.9 19.2 199.7
OCEANIA   431.3 0.0 431.3 431.3 91.3 0.0 91.3
KiribatiJan./Dec. 8.7 0.0 8.7 8.7 1.5 0.0 1.5
Papua New GuineaJan./Dec. 380.0 0.0 380.0 380.0 83.5 0.0 83.5
Solomon IslandsJan./Dec. 29.5 0.0 29.5 29.5 4.8 0.0 4.8
TuvaluJan./Dec. 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.6
VanuatuJan./Dec. 12.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.9 0.0 0.9
EUROPE   290.1 45.9 336.0 80.0 78.5 0.0 78.5
Republic of MoldovaJuly/June 290.1 45.9 336.0 80.0 78.5 0.0 78.5
TOTAL   77 164.9 4 460.6 81 625.5 88 643.9 63 666.8 2 930.6 60 736.2
1 Includes food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. USD 1 735 in 2006).
2 Estimates based on information available as of end June 2009.

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