No.4  November 2009  
   Crop Prospects and Food Situation

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Highlights

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE (total: 31 countries)

Food emergencies update

Global cereal supply and demand brief

Special feature: Domestic food prices in developing countries
remain high

Special feature: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Special feature: how China stabilized grain prices during the recent globalfood price crisis

Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries food situation overview

Regional reviews

Statistical Appendix

Note

COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE1 (total: 31 countries)

Nature of Food Insecurity

Main Reasons

Changes from last report

(July 2009)

AFRICA (20 countries)

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

  

Kenya

Adverse weather, lingering effects of civil strife

 

Lesotho

Low productivity, HIV/AIDS pandemic

 

Somalia

Conflict, economic crisis, adverse weather

 

Swaziland

Low productivity, HIV/AIDS pandemic

 

Zimbabwe

Problems of economic transition

 

Widespread lack of access

  

Eritrea

Adverse weather, IDPs, economic constraints

 

Liberia

War related damage

 

Mauritania

Several years of drought

 

Sierra Leone

War related damage

 

Severe localized food insecurity

  

Burundi

IDPs and returnees

 

Central African Republic

Refugees, insecurity in parts

 

Chad

Refugees, conflict, inadequate rainfall

 

Congo

IDPs

 

Côte d'Ivoire

Conflict related damage

 

Democratic Republic of Congo

Civil strife, returnees

 

Ethiopia

Adverse weather, Insecurity in parts

 

Guinea

Refugees, conflict related damage

 

Guinea-Bissau

Localized insecurity

 

Sudan

Civil strife (Darfur), insecurity (southern Sudan), localized crop failure

 

Uganda

Localized crop failure, insecurity

 

ASIA/NEAR EAST (11 countries)

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies

  

Iraq

Conflict and inadequate rainfall

 

Widespread lack of access

  

Afghanistan

Conflict and insecurity

 

Dem. People's Rep. of Korea

Economic constraints

 

Severe localized food insecurity

  

Bangladesh

Cyclones

 

Myanmar

Past cyclone

 

Nepal

Poor market access, floods/landslides

 

Pakistan

Conflict, IDPs

 

Philippines

Tropical storm

+

Sri Lanka

IDPs, post-conflict reconstruction

 

Timor-Leste

IDPs

 

Yemen

Conflict, IDPs

+

COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS 2

AFRICA (7 countries)
ChadInadequate rainfall +
EthiopiaLate onset of belg rains 
KenyaInadequate rainfall 
NigerInadequate rainfall +
NigeriaInadequate rainfall 
SomaliaInadequate rainfall 
SudanLate onset of main season rains 
ASIA/NEAR EAST (4 countries)
Dem. People's Rep. of KoreaInadequate inputs +
IndiaPoor monsoon rainfall 
IraqInadequate rainfall +
IsraelInadequate rainfall +
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (2 countries)
ArgentinaInadequate rainfall in key farming areas 
GuatemalaLocalized severe food insecurity +
   No change    Improving    Deteriorating +    New entry

TERMINOLOGY

1 Countries in crisis requiring external assistance are expected to lack the resources to deal with reported critical problems of food insecurity. Food crises are nearly always due to a combination of factors but for the purpose of response planning, it is important to establish whether the nature of food crises is predominantly related to lack of food availability, limited access to food, or severe but localized problems. Accordingly, the list of countries requiring external assistance is organized into three broad, not mutually exclusive, categories:

    Countries facing an exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies as a result of crop failure, natural disasters, interruption of imports, disruption of distribution, excessive post-harvest losses, or other supply bottlenecks.

    Countries with widespread lack of access, where a majority of the population is considered to be unable to procure food from local markets, due to very low incomes, exceptionally high food prices, or the inability to circulate within the country.

    Countries with severe localized food insecurity due to the influx of refugees, a concentration of internally displaced persons, or areas with combinations of crop failure and deep poverty.

2 Countries facing unfavourable prospects for current crops are countries where prospects point to a shortfall in production of current crops as a result of a reduction of the area planted and/or adverse weather conditions, plant pests, diseases and other calamities which indicate a need for close monitoring of the crops for the remainder of the growing season.

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