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"Most likely" scenario towards 2010

A "reasonable" scenario
Role of equilibrium models
Adjustments to the scenario
Sustainable harvests and transitional effects

It was beyond the scope of the present study to fully develop alternative scenarios for the Asia Pacific Region looking forward towards 2010. Rather, the attempt here is to provide perspective on the alternative scenarios discussed previously based on the several major and detailed 'outlooks' for this region.

It is inevitable that the future outlook for the Asia Pacific Region will be for a timber-constrained future. In spite of incremental shifts in supply in individual countries, development of 'new' resources such as rubberwood, and the further expansion of fast growing plantations, it is difficult to escape the logic of the prevailing conclusion that new sources of supply within the region will fall short of the pending declines in harvest from the natural forests of Malaysia and potentially from Indonesia and other current major producers. The growing apparent consumption of timber within the region as was indicated in Table 62 is unlikely to be sustained, let alone the continued growth without a considerable shift to further net regional imports. Extrapolations of 'consumption' strictly as functions of population, GDP or similar relationships independent of price will exaggerate 'demand' and fail to provide useful information for policy decision-making in the Asia Pacific Region.

It is also clear that much greater consideration must be given to the role of fuelwood in total consumption and the various related issues this consumption raises in connection to the future forest sustainability and productivity. Industrial timber production and consumption is modest in comparison. A preoccupation with the industrial component, as significant as it is, results in a distorted picture of the overall condition of the forestry sector and the probable consequences for the future.

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