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Competition and potentials of perimeter players

In the present review, the role of 'perimeter players' in terms of potential additional sources of timber supply to supplement declining Regional supplies and/or the possible threat of competition in established markets has been noted. Overall, this review found that the possible increases in timber supply around the perimeter of the Asia Pacific Region are real but realistically limited in total volumes and almost entirely conifer. It is Recommended that an explicit analysis of such 'perimeter players' be included in a Asia Pacific Outlook assessment, to include supply potentials, competition for available supplies of both Asian and non-Asian sourced products, and as two-way trade partners. Russian timber, for example, may grow in availability but may be drawn to European or North American markets at the expense of declining supply to Asia. New Zealand might find more attractive markets elsewhere. Growth in domestic consumption outside of the Asian Pacific Rim will profoundly impact direction of trade in increasingly competitive markets. Substitution within the Asia Pacific Region, as well as substitution in external markets traditionally served by Asia Pacific producers, will undoubtedly change in response to competitive forces driven by not only potential supply but potential consumption.

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