Previous Page Table of Contents Next Page


Appendix 29. ITTO scenario: Substitution of fibre and products

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Quantities Demanded - Summary



1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Consuming Countries 1


Plywood/Veneer

13,013

12,832

12,288

11,772

11,608

11,256

11,231

10,893

11,015

10,691

9,589

8,604

7,859

7,307

6,797

SawnWood

6,298

6,080

5,855

5,431

5,113

5,038

5,067

5,165

5,369

5,480

6,030

6,310

6,736

6,589

6,736

Main Producing Countries 1


Plywood/Veneer

2,088

2,104

2,119

1,957

1,970

1,997

2,024

2,053

2,166

2,196

2,159

2,121

2,098

2,089

2,080

SawnWood

11,429

11,515

11,888

11,918

11,967

12,302

12,646

13,000

13,528

13,907

14,755

15,656

16,650

17,750

18,926

Exogenous 1


Plywood/Veneer

2,021

2,040

2,059

1,996

1,934

1,855

1,855

1,779

1,779

1,706

1,608

1,429

1,292

1,188

1,093

SawnWood

4,056

4,017

3,979

3,591

3,240

3,200

3,068

3,030

3,030

2,991

2,770

2,672

2,592

2,527

2,464

Other 4


Plywood/Veneer

2,947

3,005

2,897

2,731

2,677

2,626

2,648

2,670

2,769

2,792

2,688

2,618

2,576

2,562

2,549

SawnWood

4,712

4,501

4,083

3,859

3,673

3,517

3,473

3,458

3,486

3,478

3,759

4,048

4,348

4,675

4,900

Total


Plywood/Veneer

20,069

19,960

19,363

18,455

18,188

17,734

17,758

17,394

17,728

17,384

16,043

14,772

13,825

13,146

12,518

SawnWood

26,495

26,114

25,806

24,798

23,993

24,056

24,254

24,652

25,412

25,856

27,314

28,687

30,326

31,541

33,026

1 Japan, Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore

2 Indonesia, Malaysia

3 Countries outside the region including Australia and New Zealand

4 Other countries within the Asia region

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of macroeconomic trends in the supply and demand of sustainably produced tropical timber from the Asia-Pacific Region.

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Quantities Demanded



1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

3000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Japan

Plywood/Veneer

8997

8721

8453

8194

7942

7616

7616

7304

7304

7004

6224

5529

4998

4597

4228

Korea

Plywood/Veneer

2264

2328

2181

2044

2104

2080

2058

2035

2096

2073

1842

1636

1479

1360

1251

Thailand

Plywood/Veneer

407

415

423

431

440

443

448

451

442

447

407

401

397

397

397

China

Plywood/Veneer

1747

1798

1686

1582

1535

1477

1490

1503

1578

1593

1538

1485

1458

1456

1453

Taiwan

Plywood/Veneer

1622

1653

1535

1426

1453

1452

1451

1450

1508

1506

1424

1347

1295

1267

1239

Singapore

Plywood/Veneer

130

130

119

109

108

107

106

105

108

107

99

92

87

83

80

Indonesia

Plywood/Veneer

1615

1630

1645

1513

1527

1556

1585

1615

1712

1745

1720

1695

1681

1678

1674

Pen. Malaysia

Plywood/Veneer

334

334

334

304

304

300

297

294

303

299

269

279

271

265

260

Sarawak

Plywood/Veneer

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

51

53

53

53

52

52

52

52

Sabah

Plywood/Veneer

90

90

90

90

90

91

92

93

98

99

97

96

95

95

95

Philippines

Plywood/Veneer

211

207

203

181

161

161

161

161

168

168

165

163

162

162

162

PNG

Plywood/Veneer

19

19

19

17

17

17

17

17

17

17

16

16

15

15

15

Hong Kong

Plywood/Veneer

509

513

518

476

480

485

489

494

519

523

515

508

500

488

477

Exo Demand

Plywood/Veneer

2021

2040

2059

1996

1934

1855

1855

1779

1779

1706

1608

1429

1292

1188

1093

Myanmar

Plywood/Veneer

12

11

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

10

9

9

9

9

Cambodia

Plywood/Veneer

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Laos

Plywood/Veneer

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Vietnam

Plywood/Veneer

31

32

30

27

26

26

26

26

27

27

27

27

27

27

27

Solomon Islands

Plywood/Veneer

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Total

Plywood/Veneer

20,069

19,980

19,363

18,455

18,188

17,734

17,758

17,394

17,728

17,364

16,043

14,772

13,825

13,146

12,518

Japan

Sawn wood

2564

2429

2406

2172

1960

1945

1865

1851

1860

1846

1799

1754

1718

1692

1667

Korea

Sawn wood

1324

1378

1307

1239

1289

1331

1374

1419

1483

1531

1616

1705

1781

1844

1909

Thailand

Sawnwood

1601

1558

1517

1482

1480

1406

1334

1267

1212

1146

1134

1232

1319

1515

1600

China

Sawnwood

702

672

581

556

532

502

521

540

567

588

627

668

716

771

829

Taiwan

Sawnwood

1908

1792

1682

1580

1483

1402

1455

1509

1584

1644

2036

2239

2536

2392

2476

Singapore

Sawnwood

503

481

460

441

381

360

374

387

442

459

580

613

701

661

684

Indonesia

Sawnwood

7564

7795

8033

8278

8530

8764

9004

9250

9620

9883

10532

11223

12019

12934

13920

Pen. Malaysia

Sawnwood

3079

2919

3037

2879

2730

2805

2881

2960

3078

3162

3305

3455

3593

3719

3850

Sarawak

Sawnwood

304

311

317

295

275

285

296

307

323

335

357

380

404

426

450

Sabah

Sawnwood

481

491

501

465

433

449

466

483

507

526

561

598

635

669

707

Philippines

Sawnwood

678

679

623

568

518

532

547

562

584

600

639

681

722

763

806

PNG

Sawnwood

375

342

312

284

259

263

268

272

280

265

346

386

429

435

442

Hong Kong

Sawnwood

95

89

84

79

74

77

80

62

87

80

97

103

119

123

127

Exo Demand

Sawnwood

4056

4017

3970

3591

3240

3200

3068

3030

3030

2991

2770

2672

2592

2527

2464

Myanmar

Sawnwood

655

591

482

444

401

350

336

335

339

338

459

492

530

528

525

Cambodia

Sawnwood

77

71

59

54

49

45

44

44

45

45

47

50

52

54

57

Laos

Sawnwood

12

10

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Vietnam

Sawnwood

504

478

409

376

346

327

330

342

359

372

397

423

449

474

501

Solomon Islands

Sawnwood

12

11

9

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Total

Sawnwood

26,495

26,114

25,806

24,798

23,993

24,056

24,254

24,652

25,412

25,856

27,314

28,687

30,326

31,541

33,026

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Demand Prices



1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Japan

Plywood/Veneer

464

399

417

455

476

499

488

480

487

480

481

479

478

457

457

Korea

Plywood/Veneer

334

349

398

437

459

480

472

464

451

464

464

463

462

440

440

Thailand

Plywood/Veneer

405

420

435

450

467

484

502

520

545

566

585

582

580

546

546

China

Plywood/Veneer

414

418

446

487

513

539

531

523

528

522

523

521

518

497

497

Taiwan

Plywood/Veneer

332

345

395

434

455

476

468

460

448

460

461

459

458

436

436

Singapore

Plywood/Veneer

311

325

371

409

430

450

442

434

422

434

435

433

432

411

411

Indonesia

Plywood/Veneer

336

327

343

378

395

417

403

396

404

397

397

397

397

376

375

Pen. Malaysia

Plywood/Veneer

320

340

358

390

410

432

418

411

419

412

412

412

404

391

390

Sarawak

Plywood/Veneer

351

342

358

393

410

432

418

411

419

412

412

412

412

391

390

Sabah

Plywood/Veneer

344

342

358

393

410

432

418

411

419

412

412

412

412

391

390

Philippines

Plywood/Veneer

375

396

421

460

506

533

525

516

517

516

464

481

468

478

476

PUG

Plywood/Veneer

336

342

358

393

410

432

418

411

419

412

412

412

412

391

390

Hong Kong

Plywood/Veneer

354

345

361

396

413

435

421

414

422

415

415

415

415

394

393

Exo Demand

Plywood/Veneer

428

416

434

472

492

516

505

497

503

497

498

496

495

474

474

Myanmar

Plywood/Veneer

395

417

492

553

586

619

607

594

574

594

423

421

409

419

419

Cambodia

Plywood/Veneer

479

482

551

613

656

694

696

690

694

689

692

687

681

658

658

Laos

Plywood/Veneer

395

417

493

554

568

621

608

595

576

595

596

594

592

558

556

Vietnam

Plywood/Veneer

395

418

493

554

588

621

608

595

576

595

571

571

571

558

558

Solomon Islands

Plywood/Veneer

491

482

551

613

656

694

696

690

694

689

692

687

681

658

658

Volume Weighted Average


384

383

409

446

467

489

480

472

474

472

472

470

469

447

447

Japan

Sawn wood

286

307

329

366

426

449

440

431

411

425

381

379

366

378

378

Korea

Sawn wood

279

295

354

400

425

450

431

421

400

415

393

391

389

364

364

Thailand

Sawn wood

347

363

361

399

418

438

459

461

510

535

556

554

551

511

511

China

Sawn wood

219

238

287

327

350

372

365

356

343

355

357

355

353

331

331

Taiwan

Sawn wood

281

304

324

361

421

444

435

426

406

420

376

374

361

373

373

Singapore

Sawnwood

266

289

309

346

406

429

420

411

391

405

361

359

346

358

358

Indonesia

Sawn wood

240

231

246

283

300

323

309

302

309

302

302

302

302

280

280

Pen. Malaysia

Sawnwood

250

273

293

330

390

413

420

411

391

405

361

359

346

358

358

Sarawak

Sawnwood

249

272

292

329

389

412

403

394

374

387

344

342

329

341

341

Sabah

Sawnwood

249

272

292

329

389

412

403

394

374

388

344

342

329

341

341

Philippines

Sawnwood

295

316

340

380

444

473

467

458

437

448

404

401

387

398

396

PNG

Sawnwood

251

274

294

331

391

414

405

396

376

390

346

344

331

343

343

Hong Kong

Sawnwood

269

292

312

349

409

432

423

414

394

408

364

362

349

361

361

Exo Demand

Sawnwood

301

324

344

381

441

464

455

446

426

440

396

394

381

393

393

Myanmar

Sawnwood

317

341

418

482

518

552

539

525

505

525

346

344

331

343

343

Cambodia

Sawnwood

346

371

461

532

572

611

596

581

558

581

547

544

542

502

502

Laos

Sawnwood

346

371

461

532

572

611

596

581

558

580

546

544

541

501

501

Vietnam

Sawnwood

346

373

461

532

572

611

596

581

558

581

546

544

641

501

501

Solomon Islands

Sawnwood

346

371

458

529

569

607

592

569

546

524

484

483

446

446

445

Volume Weighted Average


302

313

338

375

413

436

425

415

406

411

382

378

370

360

357

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Quantities Supplied



1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Thailand

Logs - Hardwood

5420

5339

5259

5180

5102

4837

4585

4347

4121

3907

3371

2910

2741

2497

2478

Indonesia

Logs - Hardwood

35,730

33,699

35,710

35,245

34,787

34,022

32,494

32,493

31,826

31,126

31,247

31,247

33,204

30,252

30,013

Pen, Malaysia

Logs - Hardwood

10,490

9,882

9,447

9,013

8,598

5,502

5,502

5,502

5,502

5,502

5,502

5,502

5,013

5,013

5,013

Sarawak

Logs - Hardwood

19,411

10,848

16,737

14,696

12,903

12,593

12,291

11,995

11,708

11,427

10,133

9,232

8,411

9,154

9,154

Sabah

Logs - Hardwood

10,140

11,041

9,455

7,148

5,404

5,404

5,404

5,404

5,404

5,404

4,695

4,277

3,897

4,244

4,244

Philippines

Logs - Hardwood

1,560

619

675

795

1,007

1,097

1,097

1,097

999

999

829

822

749

816

806

PNG

Logs - Hardwood

2,480

2,480

2,487

2,493

2,500

2,500

2,500

2,293

2,089

2,275

1,888

1,873

1,858

1,844

1,829

Myanmar

Logs - Hardwood

2,319

2,525

3,198

3,766

4,100

4,465

4,465

4,465

4,085

4,448

2,612

2,591

2,361

2,571

2,571

Cambodia

Logs - Hardwood

206

224

284

334

364

391

391

392

357

388

388

388

353

322

322

Laos

Logs - Hardwood

340

231

292

344

375

408

408

408

372

405

405

405

369

336

336

Vietnam

Logs - Hardwood

2,195

2,390

2,987

2,987

2,987

2,987

2,987

2,987

2,987

2,988

2,988

2,988

2,988

2,988

2,968

Solomon Islands

Logs - Hardwood

300

327

400

400

400

400

400

390

389

379

369

369

339

329

319

Total Conventional Supply

Logs - Hardwood

90,590

87,604

86,931

82,400

78,527

74,606

72,524

71,774

69,839

69,248

64,427

62,604

62,283

60,365

60,072

Thailand - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

90

160

220

280

330

370

420

460

520

620

731

Indonesia - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

580

1,100

1,590

2,070

2,519

2,950

4,010

5,121

6,241

7,347

8,466

Pen, Malaysia - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

140

180

260

350

440

520

690

860

1,070

1,319

1,599

Sarawak - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

220

410

590

760

920

1,081

1,330

1,530

1,771

2,062

2,362

Sabah - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

90

170

260

340

430

510

660

801

941

1,100

1,250

Philippines - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

30

50

80

110

140

180

240

321

391

461

541

PNG - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

310

390

470

550

630

Myanmar -IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cambodia - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Laos - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Vietnam - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

50

100

140

190

240

280

64

63

64

0

0

Solomon Islands - IU

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

10

10

20

30

30

40

50

50

80

90

100

Total Improved Utilization

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

1,250

2,260

3,280

4,290

5,250

6,171

7,775

9,595

11,546

13,549

15,680

Indonesia - Helilog

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

0

800

1,300

0

2,100

903

3,500

1,248

3,010

0

0

PNG - Helilog

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

400

800

1,300

1,700

2,100

2,499

3,500

4,500

0

4,077

2,378

Total Helilogging

Logs - Hardwood

0

0

0

0

400

1,600

2,600

1,700

4,200

3,402

6,999

5,748

3,010

4,077

2,378

Australia

Logs - Softwood

0

37

75

112

150

200

249

299

349

399

539

678

798

898

997

New Zealand

Logs - Softwood

0

75

150

225

300

399

499

599

699

799

1,079

1,358

1,598

1,798

1,997

Chile

Logs - Softwood

0

150

300

450

600

799

999

1,199

1,399

1,599

2,159

2,718

3,198

3,598

3,997

Russia

Logs - Softwood

0

187

375

562

750

999

1,249

1,499

1,749

1,999

2,699

3,398

3,998

4,498

4,997

Total Conifer Supply

Logs - Softwood

0

450

899

1,349

1,798

2,398

2,997

3,597

4,196

4,796

6,474

8,153

9,591

10,790

11,989

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre and Products

Supply Prices



1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Thailand

Logs -Hardwood

103

109

114

121

128

135

142

150

161

169

177

176

175

161

161

Indonesia

Logs - Hardwood

98

93

100

119

127

138

132

128

132

128

128

128

128

117

117

Pen. Malaysia

Logs - Hardwood

98

109

118

137

166

178

181

177

167

174

152

151

145

150

150

Sarawak

Logs - Hardwood

97

108

117

136

165

177

173

168

158

165

143

142

136

141

141

Sabah

Logs - Hardwood

96

107

116

135

164

176

172

167

157

164

142

141

135

140

140

Total Malaysia

97

107

117

136

166

177

174

170

160

167

145

144

138

144

144

Philippines

Logs - Hardwood

94

103

112

128

153

165

163

159

150

155

137

136

131

135

134

PNG

Logs - Hardwood

77

85

94

108

132

142

138

134

126

132

114

114

109

113

113

Myanmar

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

178

186

114

113

109

113

113

Cambodia

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

178

186

187

186

185

170

170

Laos

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

178

186

187

186

185

170

170

Vietnam

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

178

186

176

176

176

170

170

Solomon Islands

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

183

175

167

153

152

139

139

139

Thailand- IU

Logs - Hardwood

103

109

114

121

128

135

142

150

161

169

177

176

175

161

161

Indonesia - IU

Logs - Hardwood

98

93

106

119

127

138

132

128

132

128

128

128

128

117

117

Pen Malaysia - IU

Logs - Hardwood

98

109

118

137

166

178

181

177

167

174

152

151

145

150

150

Sarawak - IU

Logs - Hardwood

97

108

117

136

165

177

173

169

158

165

143

142

136

141

141

Sabah - IU

Logs - Hardwood

96

107

116

135

164

176

172

167

157

164

142

141

135

140

140

Philippines - IU

Logs - Hardwood

94

103

112

128

153

165

163

159

150

155

137

136

131

135

134

PNG - IU

Logs - Hardwood

77

94

94

108

132

142

138

134

126

132

114

114

109

113

113

Myanmar - IU

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

178

186

114

113

109

113

113

Cambodia - IU

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

225

186

225

186

185

170

170

Laos -IU

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

143

169

183

197

192

186

225

186

187

186

185

170

170

Vietnam - IU

Logs - Hardwood

103

112

176

176

183

197

192

186

178

186

176

176

176

176

170

Solomon Islands - IU

Logs - Hardwood

103

138

143

169

183

197

192

183

175

167

153

152

139

139

139

Indonesia- Helilog

Logs - Hardwood

98

93

128

128

128

138

132

128

132

128

128

128

128

117

128

PNG - Helilog

Logs - Hardwood

77

85

113

113

132

142

138

134

126

132

114

114

113

113

113

Australia

Logs - Softwood

74

73

104

130

144

158

147

142

130

138

126

125

124

110

110

New Zealand

Logs - Softwood

74

73

104

130

144

158

147

142

130

138

126

125

124

110

110

Chile

Logs - Softwood

74

73

104

130

144

158

147

142

130

138

126

125

124

110

110

Russia

Logs - Softwood

89

68

119

145

159

173

162

157

145

153

141

140

139

125

125

Source: ITTO. 1995 Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region

Scenario: Substitution of Fibre Only

Quantities Manufactured - Summary



1991

1192

1993

1994

1995

1996

1897

1998

1999

2000

2002

2004

2006

2001

2010

Consumer1 Countries




Plywood/Veneer Total

11,734

9,885

9,168

9,026

8,694

9,056

9,549

10,109

10,957

11,283

9,884

10,571

11,314

11,900

12,041

Plywood/Veneer Softwood

0

0

0

0

0

214

587

1,021

1,672

1,969

3,557

4,480

5,270

5,796

5,874

Sawnwood Total

3,629

6,199

3,600

3,406

3,320

3,705

3,622

3,522

3,303

3,306

1,437

1,360

1,326

1,533

2,315

Sawnwood Softwood

0

268

548

822

1,097

1,225

1,176

1,060

703

740

0

0

0

147

792

Producer2 Countries




Plywood/Veneer Total

8,335

10,744

10,674

10,410

10,310

10,000

9,742

9,418

8,816

8,702

9,640

9,392

9,120

8,969

8,943

Plywood/Veneer Softwood

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sawnwood Total

22,866

19,553

22,151

20,795

20,382

19,631

20,420

21,175

22,101

22,598

25,677

27,741

30,067

32,023

33,855

Sawnwood Softwood

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

All Countries



Plywood/Veneer Total

20,069

20,629

19,841

19,436

19,204

19,056

19,291

19,527

19,673

19,985

19,523

19,963

20,434

20,869

20,984

Plywood/Veneer Softwood

0

0

0

0

0

214

587

1,021

1,672

1,969

3,557

4,480

5,270

5,796

5,874

Sawnwood Total

26,495

25,752

25,751

24,202

23,702

23,336

24,041

24,697

25,404

25,904

27,114

29,101

31,393

33,556

36,170

Sawnwood Softwood

0

268

548

822

1,097

1,225

1,178

1,060

703

740

0

0

0

147

792

1 Japan, Korea, Thailand, China, Taiwan Province of China, Singapore, Hong Kong

2 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Soloman Islands

Source: ITTO. 1995. Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region


Previous Page Top of Page Next Page