by the Secretariat
The annual FAO Surveys of World Pulp and Paper Capacities are based on figures received early in the year of publication from correspondents in many countries of the world, and on Secretariat estimates for the remaining countries. In most instances, the data are provided by national pulp and paper trade associations. The information on their future development plans is obtained from companies, on average about six months before the data are reported to FAO. Accordingly, the results reflect industry opinion and expectations in the middle of the first year reported on. Subsequent changes in economic, financial and market conditions may, in the meantime, have led to changes in their plans and expectations. For this 1996-2001 Survey, new estimates have been received in time for inclusion for 36 countries. For the remaining countries, the estimates of the 1995-2000 Survey have been repeated, and 2001 has been made equal to 2000.
The coverage and content of the Survey is as for last year. The data have been stored and processed by computers, and a computer questionnaire was used in the enquiry. The following features of presentation are noted:
(i) Country tables for pulp and paper are presented on one page.(ii) Regional tables include all the detail of the country tables. In addition, these tables show for each product aggregate, the volume for which further detailed breakdown to component products is not available. This indicates immediately the extent of coverage of the detail provided on the breakdown.
(iii) Product tables show volume of production capacity by country, for each product and product aggregate code. They are included in the order of the code numbers.
The countries for which data were received in time for inclusion in the updating were Australia, Austria, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Korea Rep. of, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Myanmar, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, United Kingdom and the United States of America. These 36 countries account for 85 percent of world capacity. Returns from developing countries covered 35 percent of their total production capacity. Note in this edition the data on China excludes capacity of the Province of Taiwan. Data under the former USSR is for the Russian Federation only.
The national correspondents, that returned the FAO questionnaires in time for publishing the "Pulp and Paper Capacity Survey 1996-2001" are listed in Annex 1. This publication is possible because of their support. Their willingness to share and exchange data is greatly appreciated. For inquiries on these data please contact the national correspondents or FAO Forestry Department, Planning and Statistics Branch, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy. Fax: (+39-6)5225.5514, e-mail: Felice.Padovani@FAO.ORG. These data are also available on Internet on the FAO home page at: http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/forestry/forestry.htm
SYMBOLS USED IN THE TABLES
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NOT DISAGGREGATED |
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ESTIMATED DATA |
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UNITS |
TONS/TONNES/METRIC TONS |
SUMMARY
The main findings of the 1996-2001 Survey are as follows:
Trends (Table 1 and Table 2)
During the period 1996-2001, industrial capacity is projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.5 percent for Wood Pulp and 1.8 percent for Paper and Paperboard. Both these growth rates are lower than those foreseen in the 1995-2000 survey. Total world capacity for Wood Pulp in 2001 is predicted to be 197 million mt, that for Paper and Paperboard 344 million mt.
Out of the total of 197 million mt of projected wood pulp capacity in the year 2001, the developed countries (which includes the former USSR and countries of Central and Eastern Europe in transition to market economy) will account for 85 percent, the developing for the remainder; in 1996 the corresponding share was 88 percent. Out of the 344 million mt projected capacity for paper and paperboard, the developed countries will account for 77 percent while in 1996 the corresponding share was 79 percent.
For wood pulp capacity expansion, the fastest growing region is expected to be Asia and particularly Indonesia. In the paper industry, expansion will also be fastest in Asia and particularly Malaysia. The slowest region, both for pulp and paper, is expected to be Africa excluding South Africa. Semi-chemical pulp is expected to be the fastest growing type of pulp and printing grade for paper.
Wood Pulp For Paper Making (Table 3)
During 1996-2001, the capacity of the wood pulp industry is expected to recover somewhat after the marked decline experienced during 1991-1996 when the industry in countries of Eastern Europe and the former USSR suffered severe dislocation. In these countries, many pulp mills had to be closed as, in the new market-economy environment, they were obsolete, uneconomic or faced difficulties in obtaining raw materials. According to current plans, the period 1996-2001 should witness a recovery of capacity from previous lows, for wood pulp as well as for paper and paperboard. In other developed countries, notable pulp capacity expansions are also planned in the Nordic countries and in Oceania which are expected to grow by an annual growth of 2.1 percent and by 4.3 percent, respectively, The developing countries are expected to continue expanding capacity but somewhat slower than their previous particularly rapid rates. Their projected growth is expected to be an annual 5.8 percent compared to the 8.4 percent of the 1991-96 period.
Mechanical Wood Pulp (Table 4)
World mechanical wood pulp capacity is predicted to have zero growth in the period 1996-2001 after the declines experienced in the previous periods. No growth is planned for the developed countries as a whole. However, the planned increase in capacity in Eastern Europe (the highest in the developed countries especially Romania), in the EEC and in the Nordic countries (especially Finland) is expected to compensate for the decline foreseen for Canada, which is planning to reduce capacity by some 0.3 million mt. An increase in capacity of 0.5 percent is predicted in the developing countries, mainly in Asia and a decline is predicted in Latin America of 0.7 percent mainly in Chile.
Thermo-Mechanical Wood Pulp (Table 5)
World-wide capacity of thermo-mechanical wood pulp is expected to increase annually by 1.8 percent during 1996-2001, well below the previous strong growth. It is important to note that thermo-mechanical pulp has seen the most rapid capacity increase of all pulps in recent years: installed capacity jumped from 6 million mt in 1981 to some 27 million mt in 1996. The developed countries, where most of the capacity is located, are planning to increase it also by 1.6 percent with the highest increase planned in Sweden at 3.9 percent annual growth. For the period 1996-2001 Canada, Finland and Japan are planning to increase their capacity by more than 1.2 million mt. On the other hand, capacity in the developing countries is predicted to grow by 7.3 percent annually with the highest growth in Latin America, at 10.1 percent. All other regions, both developed and developing, are predicted to experience marked slow down in their growth.
Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp (Table 6)
The world capacity of semi-chemical wood pulp is expected to recover in 1996-2001, halting a long-term downward trend. Its total annual increase is predicted to be 1.9 percent. In the developed countries, the rate is expected to be 1.9 percent, with the highest growth in Eastern Europe, at 5 percent annually. A doubling of capacity, based non coniferous wood, is projected to take place in Australia and Romania. An annual rate of expansion of 1.7 percent is foreseen in the developing countries with the highest growth being in Asia, where the annual increase will about 2.3 percent.
Chemical Wood Pulp (Table 7)
World capacity of chemical wood pulp is expected to rise moderately in the period 1996-2001, by some 1.7 percent annually. In the developed countries, which are predicted to grow annually by 0.8 percent, the highest expansion is planned in Oceania, at 6.6 percent and particularly in Australia. Notable expansions are also planned in the Nordic countries which are predicted to increase their capacity by 1.3 million mt, mainly in Finland and Sweden and to a lesser extent Germany, The developing countries, although growing more slowly than in previous periods, are planning to increase capacity of chemical wood pulp by 6.5 percent annually with strong expansion in Asia, by 8.7 percent annually and particularly Indonesia which will more than double its capacity of non-coniferous wood pulp by the year 2001 to reach 5.7 million mt, Chile, Brazil and Colombia are also planning notable expansions of capacity, with an overall growth of 10.3 percent, 4.3 percent and 13.3 percent respectively. Africa (excluding South Africa) is predicted to have the slowest growth among developing regions, with an annual rate of 0.3 percent.
Other Fibre Pulp (Table 8)
The other fibre pulp industry is almost exclusively located in the developing countries where 1996 capacity stood at some 21 million mt, out of a world total of 22.4 million mt. Plans for the period 1996-2001 indicate an annual increase in capacity of 1.4 percent. Almost all the expansion is planned in China, with most of the pulp being straw. Capacity in the developed countries, is predicted to grow by an annual 2.9 percent most of their increase will be in France where capacity will jump from a current level of 2.000 mt. to 150.000 mt in 1998.
Dissolving Pulp (Table 9)
World capacity of dissolving pulp is predicted to recover slightly, increasing annually by 0.6 percent - after a long period of decline. Capacity in the developing countries is predicted to grow annually by 2.1 percent with the fastest growth in Latin America, mainly in Brazil. The corresponding annual growth in the developed countries is predicted to be 0.2 percent, with the strongest growth in the EEC, at 5,7 percent annually, and a notable expansion in Germany.
Market Pulp
The world capacity for market wood pulp production was estimated at 43.9 million tons in 1996, with the indication of an increase to 46.1 million tons by 1999. The regional distribution was 20 million tons in North America, 6.5 million tons in the Nordic countries, 4.6 million tons in the EEC and the rest of Europe, 5 million tons in Latin America, 0.7 million tons in Oceania, 2.4 million tons in developing Asia, and 0.4 million tons in developing Africa.
Paper and Paperboard (Table 10)
For 1996-2001, the paper and paperboard industry has a lower planned capacity expansion rate than that experienced in previous periods, although it will still increase. The developed countries are predicted to benefit from the expected recovery of the paper industry in Eastern Europe and in the Nordic countries which have, in previous years, seen a decrease in their capacities. However, although decreasing, from 1.9 percent annual growth to 1.5 percent, capacity growth of the developed countries is expected to be well below that of the developing countries. The paper and paperboard industry capacity in developing countries will continue to grow but at a notably slower pace than in the past. During the previous period, in fact, they enjoyed an annual growth of 6.8 percent; during the next period the annual growth is expected to be halved, to 3 percent.
Newsprint (Table 11)
Capacity for newsprint in 1996-2001 is predicted to grow annually by 1.4 percent. Growth in planned capacity during 1996-2001 is expected to be marginal for developed countries, some 0.6 percent annually and mainly located in Japan and some EEC countries (France, Sweden, Spain), the highest regional growth. A much stronger increase is expected in the developing countries where plans for newsprint capacity show to growth at some 5.8 percent annually during 1996-2001, a decline of the growth rate from the previous period. Significant capacity expansions are planned in Asia, notably in Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia and Thailand as well as Latin America, mainly Brazil and Chile. No growth is predicted for Africa, excluding South Africa.
Printing and Writing (Table 12)
Capacity for printing and writing paper which increased very rapidly during previous periods, is expected to grow more slowly during 1996-2001, with the annual increase being 2.5 percent. However, this industry is predicted to still maintain the highest rate of growth of capacity (at global level) for the whole pulp and paper industry. The developed countries are predicted to achieve an annual rate of increase in capacity of 2.4 percent, slightly below the previous growth rate. Major expansions are planned in Eastern Europe, the highest regional growth, at 7.6 percent annually. A notable capacity increase is also predicted for the Nordic countries, but lower to their previous rate of growth. The rate of increase in capacity in the developing countries is predicted to slow down considerably, from 7.8 percent during 1991-1996 to some 3.0 percent annually. Among the regions, Asia is predicted to enjoy the fastest growth, 3.7 percent annually, with China and Indonesia planning to expand capacity strongly by 0.8 million mt and 0.6 million mt, respectively.
Other Paper and Paperboard (Table 13)
As for printing and writing grades, the increase in capacity of other paper and paperboard is expected to slow down during 1996-2001. Planned increase in world capacity will result in a 1.6 percent annual growth rate, down from the 2.7 percent of the previous period. The developed countries are predicted to increase capacity by 1.2 percent annually, slightly above the previous period. A notable recovery of capacity is planned in Eastern and Nordic countries, the fastest growing region. Major expansions are also planned for Oceanian countries, up by 2.6 annually. The developing countries, on the other hand, are expected to experience a marked slow down in the rate of increase of their previous strong expansion. Their annual increase is predicted to be 2.7 percent, well below the previous 6.3 percent. The notable exceptions to this predicted slow down are two Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico, which plan to increase capacity each by 0.4 million mt. However Asia is predicted to maintain the highest growth among developing countries.
Capacity Ratio: Pulp for Paper to Paper and Paperboard (Table 14) The apparent ratio of capacity to produce pulp for paper(wood pulp plus pulp of other fibre) to the capacity to produce paper and paperboard is 65.3 percent in 1996 and falls to 64.3 percent in 2001. This decline reflects an increasing use of recovered paper and fillers such as clay, especially in the last ten years.
Comparison with Earlier Surveys (Tables 15+16)
In Table 15, the estimate of total capacity in the first year of each Survey and the estimated increase over the period is shown. It should be noted that data published in the 1980, 1981 and 1982 Surveys were subsequently revised to include country returns received too late to be included. Data for 1982, 1983 and 1991 include the revision of data for China. Data for 1993 include the revision of data for India.
Capacity Utilisation (Table 17)
For countries reporting production and capacity for 1996, the ratio indicating apparent capacity utilisation is shown.
World development of capacity is illustrated in tables 1-17 and in figures 1-12 on pages XXIII-XXXVIII.
