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Report on the FAO survey of pulp and paper capacities 1997-2002

by the Secretariat

The FAO Survey of World Pulp and Paper Capacities is based on figures received early in the year of publication from correspondents in many countries of the world, and on Secretariat estimates for the remaining countries. In most instances, the data are provided by national pulp and paper trade associations. The information on their future development plans is obtained from companies, on average about six months before the data are reported to FAO. Accordingly, the results reflect industry opinion and expectations in the middle of the first year reported on. Subsequent changes in economic, financial and market conditions may, in the meantime, have led to changes in their plans and expectations. For this 1997-2002 Survey, new estimates have been received in time for inclusion for 38 countries. For the remaining countries, the estimates of the 1996-2001 Survey have been repeated, and 2002 has been made equal to 2001.

The coverage and content of the Survey is as for last year. The data have been stored and processed by computers, and a computer questionnaire was used in the enquiry. The following features of presentation are noted:

(i) Country tables for pulp and paper are presented on one page.

(ii) Regional tables include all the detail of the country tables. In addition, these tables show for each product aggregate, the volume for which further detailed breakdown to component products is not available. This indicates immediately the extent of coverage of the detail provided on the breakdown.

(iii) Product tables show volume of production capacity by country, for each product and product aggregate code. They are included in the order of the code numbers.

The countries for which data were received in time for inclusion in the updating were Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Finland, France, Germany, Honduras, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Korea Rep. of, Malaysia, Morocco, Myanmar, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkey, United Kingdom and the United States of America. These 38 countries account for 82 percent of world capacity. Returns from developing countries covered 26 percent of their total production capacity. Note in this edition the data on China excludes capacity of the Province of Taiwan. Data under the former USSR is for the Russian Federation only.

The national correspondents who returned the FAO questionnaires in time for publishing the "Pulp and Paper Capacity Survey 1997-2002" are listed in Annex 1. This publication is possible because of their support. Their willingness to share and exchange data is greatly appreciated. For inquiries on these data please contact the national correspondents or FAO Forestry Department, Planning and Statistics Branch, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy. Fax: (+39-6) 5705.5514, e-mail: Felice.Padovani@FAO.ORG. These data are also available on Internet on the FAO home page at: http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/forestry/forestry.htm

SYMBOLS USED IN THE TABLES

·

NOT DISAGGREGATED

*)

ESTIMATED DATA

LATE DATA

DATA RECEIVED AFTER REPORT DEADLINE. REVISION NOT INCLUDED IN REGIONAL OR PRODUCT TABLES.

UNITS

TONS/TONNES/METRIC TONS

SUMMARY

The main findings of the 1997-2002 Survey are as follows:

Trends (Table 1 and Table 2)

During the period 1997-2002, industrial capacity is projected to increase at an annual rate of 1.3 percent for Wood Pulp and 1.5 percent for Paper and Paperboard. Both these growth rates are lower than those foreseen in the 1996-2001 survey. Total world capacity for Wood Pulp in 2002 is predicted to be 198 million mt, that for Paper and Paperboard 350 million mt.

Out of the total of 198 million mt of projected wood pulp capacity in the year 2002, the developed countries (which includes the former USSR and countries of Central and Eastern Europe in transition to market economy) will account for 85 percent, the developing for the remainder; in 1997 the corresponding share was 87 percent. Out of the 350 million mt projected capacity for paper and paperboard, the developed countries will account for 77 percent while in 1997 the corresponding share was 78 percent.

For wood pulp capacity expansion, the fastest growing region is expected to be Latin America and particularly Honduras and Chile. In the paper industry, expansion will also be fastest in Eastern Europe and particularly in Hungary and the Czech Republic. The slowest regions, both for pulp and paper, are expected to be the Former USSR and Africa excluding South Africa. Chemical pulp is expected to be the fastest growing type of pulp and printing grade for paper.

Wood Pulp For Paper Making (Table 3)

During 1997-2002, the capacity of the wood pulp industry is expected to grow 1.3 percent per annum, the same expansion experienced during 1992-1997. In developed countries, capacity is expected to increase 0.7 percent per annum. Notable expansions are planned in Eastern Europe, Nordic countries and in Oceania respectively of 3.3 percent, 1.4 percent and 3.1 percent per year. The developing countries are expected to continue expanding capacity but somewhat slower than their previous particularly rapid rates. Their projected growth is expected to be an annual 4.9 percent compared to the 7.9 percent of the 1992-97 period.

Mechanical Wood Pulp (Table 4)

World mechanical wood pulp capacity is predicted to remain stable in the period 1997-2002 after the declines experienced in the previous periods. A decrease is planned for the developed countries as a whole. However, the planned increase in capacity in Eastern Europe (the highest in the developed countries especially Romania), in the EEC (especially Spain) and in the Nordic countries is expected to compensate for the decline foreseen for Norway, which is planning to reduce capacity by some 0.15 million mt. An increase in capacity of 0.3 percent is predicted in the developing countries, mainly in Asia and a decline is predicted in Latin America of 0.4 percent mainly in Chile.

Thermo-Mechanical Wood Pulp (Table 5)

World-wide capacity of thermo-mechanical wood pulp is expected to increase annually by 1.3 percent during 1997-2002, well below the previous strong growth. The developed countries, where most of the capacity is located, are planning to increase it also by 1.1 percent with the highest increase planned in Norway at 2.8 percent annual growth. For the period 1997-2002 Canada, Finland and Norway plan to increase their capacity by more than 1 million mt. On the other hand, capacity in the developing countries is predicted to grow by 4.6 percent annually with the highest growth in Latin America, at 6.9 percent mainly in Chile. All other regions, both developed and developing, are predicted to experience marked slow down in their growth.

Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp (Table 6)

The world capacity of semi-chemical wood pulp is expected to increase by 0.2 million mt during 1997-2002. Its total annual increase is predicted to be 0.6 percent. In the developed countries, the rate is expected to be 0.6 percent, with the highest growth in Nordic countries at 2.2 percent annually, mainly in Norway. An annual rate of expansion of 0.5 percent is foreseen in the developing countries with the highest growth being in Latin America, where the annual increase will about 1.2 percent.

Chemical Wood Pulp (Table 7)

World capacity of chemical wood pulp is expected to rise moderately in the period 1997-2002, by some 1.5 percent annually. In the developed countries, which are predicted to grow annually by 0.7 percent, the highest expansion is planned in Oceania, at 6.6 percent and particularly in Australia. Notable expansions are also planned in the Nordic countries which are predicted to increase their capacity by 1,2 million mt, mainly in Sweden, Finland and to a lesser extent in Germany. The developing countries, although growing more slowly than in previous periods, are planning to increase capacity of chemical wood pulp by 5.6 percent annually with strong expansion in Asia and Latin America. Particularly rapid expansion is projected for capacity in Indonesia (7.3 percent), Malaysia (52.2 percent), Chile (10.2 percent), Brazil (5.8 percent), Colombia (12.2 percent) and Honduras (24.6 percent). Africa (excluding South Africa) is predicted to have the slowest growth among developing regions, with an annual rate of 0.3 percent.

Other Fibre Pulp (Table 8)

The other fibre pulp industry is almost exclusively located in the developing countries where 1997 capacity stood at some 21.5 million mt, out of a world total of 22.8 million mt. Plans for the period 1997-2002 indicate an annual increase in capacity of 0.9 percent. Almost all the expansion is planned in China. Capacity in the developed countries, is predicted to decrease by an annual 0.2 percent. Most of this decrease will be in Spain where capacity will decline from a current level of 141.000 mt. to 16.000 mt in 1998.

Dissolving Pulp (Table 9)

World capacity of dissolving pulp is predicted to decrease annually by 0.4 percent. Capacity in the developing countries is predicted to grow annually by 0.8 percent with the fastest growth in Asia. The corresponding annual growth in the developed countries is predicted to decrease by 0.9 percent mainly in Japan and the USA.

Market Pulp

The world capacity for market wood pulp production was estimated at 44.8 million tons in 1997, with the indication of an increase to 45.5 million tons by 2000. The leading producing regions include: North America (20 million tons), Nordic countries (6.7 million tons), EEC and rest of Europe (4.6 million tons), Latin America (5.2 million tons) and developing Asia (3.6 million tons).

Paper and Paperboard (Table 10)

For 1997-2002, the paper and paperboard industry has a lower planned capacity expansion rate than that experienced from 1992-1997. In Eastern Europe, capacity is planned to increase from 1997-2002 at 3.3 percent per annum. This expansion is notable following the significant contraction experienced from 1992-1997. The paper and paperboard industry capacity in developing countries will continue to grow but at a notably slower pace than in the past. During the previous period, in fact, they enjoyed an annual growth of 6.3 percent; during the next period the annual growth is expected to be 1.8 percent.

Newsprint (Table 11)

Capacity for newsprint in 1997-2002 is predicted to grow annually by 1.1 percent. Growth in planned capacity during 1997-2002 is expected to be marginal for developed countries, some 0.7 percent annually and mainly located in Japan and some EEC countries (Spain, France, Netherlands). A much stronger increase is expected in the developing countries where plans for newsprint capacity predict a growth at some 3.6 percent annually during 1997-2002. Significant capacity expansions are planned in Malaysia and Brazil.

Printing and Writing (Table 12)

Capacity for printing and writing paper which increased very rapidly during previous periods, is expected to grow more slowly during 1997-2002, with the annual increase being 2.0 percent. However, this industry is predicted to still maintain the highest rate of growth of capacity (at global level) for the whole pulp and paper industry. The developed countries are predicted to achieve an annual rate of increase in capacity of 2.4 percent, slightly below the previous growth rate. Major expansions are planned in Oceania and Eastern Europe, the highest regional growth, at 8.2 percent annually and 7.2 percent annually respectively. A notable capacity increase is also predicted for the Nordic countries and other West-European countries, but lower to their previous rate of growth. The rate of increase in capacity in the developing countries is predicted to slow down considerably, from 7.0 percent during 1992-1997 to some 1.4 percent annually. Among the regions, Latin America is predicted to enjoy the fastest growth, 1.9 percent annually, with Brazil planning to expand capacity strongly by 0.3 million mt.

Other Paper and Paperboard (Table 13)

The increase in capacity of other paper and paperboard is expected to slow down during 1997-2002. Planned increase in world capacity will result in a 1.3 percent annual growth rate, down from the 2.7 percent of the previous period. The developed countries are predicted to increase capacity by 1.1 percent annually, slightly above the previous period. A notable recovery of capacity is planned in Eastern Europe and Nordic countries, the fastest growing regions. Major expansions are also planned in Oceania, up by 2.6 annually. The developing countries, on the other hand, are expected to experience a marked slow down in the rate of increase of their previous strong expansion. Their annual increase is predicted to be 1.7 percent, well below the previous 5.9 percent. The notable exceptions to this predicted slow down are two Latin American countries, Brazil and Colombia, which plan to increase capacity by 0.6 million mt and 0.2 million mt respectively.

Capacity Ratio: Pulp for Paper to Paper and Paperboard (Table 14)

The apparent ratio of capacity to produce pulp for paper (wood pulp plus pulp of other fibre) to the capacity to produce paper and paperboard is 64.4 percent in 1997 and falls to 63.5 percent in 2002. This decline reflects an increasing use of recovered paper and fillers such as clay, especially in the last ten years.

Comparison with Earlier Surveys (Tables 15+16)

In Table 15, the estimate of total capacity in the first year of each Survey and the estimated increase over the period is shown. It should be noted that data published in the 1980, 1981 and 1982 Surveys were subsequently revised to include country returns received too late to be included. Data for 1982, 1983 and 1991 include the revision of data for China. Data for 1993 include the revision of data for India.

Capacity Utilisation (Table 17)

For countries reporting production and capacity for 1997, the ratio indicating apparent capacity utilisation is shown.

World development of capacity is illustrated in tables 1-17 and in figures 1-12.


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