4.1 Introduction
4.2 Regional situation in 1980
4.3 Prospects for the year 2000
4.4 Typology of deficit situations and feasibility of forestry solutions
In all the countries of Africa and the Indian Ocean wood as a fuel occupies a very important place in the various activities that consume energy and. constitutes almost the only domestic fuel for the vast majority of the inhabitants. The woody cover of these countries varies greatly according to the climatic zones and it often happens that the most inhabited areas are the tree or shrub savanna zones in which farming and grazing are progressively degrading the forest cover, creating critical situations from the ecological point of view and leading to difficulties in supplying rural, and above all urban, populations with woody material.
The increase in population combined with the progressive degradation of the woody vegetation cannot but worsen these critical situations and create new ones.
The countries¹ concerned are;
- the West African countries situated south of the Sahara;
- the East African countries (including Sudan);
- the Central African countries;
- the countries of Southern Africa, with the exception of the Republic of South Africa;
- the Indian Ocean islands; Madagascar, the Comoros, Mauritius, Reunion.¹ In this study the word country is used for convenience, although one - Réunion - is not a country in the strict sense of the term but a French department.
4.2.1 Populations concerned and their energy needs
4.2.2 Woody resources utilizable as a source of energy
4.2.3 Identification and nature of the various categories of situation
4.2.4 Regional summary
In 1980 the total number of inhabitants in this region of the world could be estimated at 319.5 million. The greater part of the population (288 million, or 90 percent) lives in rural areas or urban centres with less than 100 000 inhabitants which are concentrations of people of rural origin with practically the same customs and ways of life as rural dwellers; 31.6 million, or only 10 percent, live in large towns. The minimum energy needs are estimated at 10 to 18 GJ/person/year, according to the area.
According to statistics, in 1980 the output of fuelwood and wood for charcoal-making in this region reached 375.8 million m³. This represents about 87 percent of the total forest output and more than 60 percent of the total energy consumption. In some countries, such as Ethiopia and Mali, wood represents more than 90 percent of the energy consumption. In thirteen of the sixteen least developed countries in the region, wood represents more than three-quarters of the energy supply.
In rural areas fuelwood represents almost all the energy resources consumed, except in certain limited regions where there may be some recuperation of agricultural residues (central Upper Volta, northern Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi), but these are zones where the situation is one of acute scarcity. Minute quantities of oil (0.5 to 2 litres per person per month), resin and various vegetable oils produced locally are also used for lighting, representing 2 to 5 percent of total energy consumption. In rural areas supplies are usually obtained by direct gathering organized by each woman and her children, rarely by the entire household. "The distance to be covered may be as much as 3.5 to 4 km. For towns more than 10 000 inhabitants, needs are met by buying from sellers. The cooking methods used and the food habits largely account for the high consumption of fuelwood and explain why energy consumption is usually greater than in Asia. In rural centres, considerable amounts of fuelwood are also consumed for artisanal and semi-industrial purposes - processing of agricultural and fishery products (smoking of fish, processing os shea nuts etc.), small-scale catering, bakeries, smithies, pottery and ceramic works, tanneries, brick-works, laundries. An amount equivalent to 20 - 40 % of domestic consumption may be consumed for these purposes.
In the towns considerable use is usually made of charcoal, because it is more convenient. It is appreciated by home-makers and its consumption increases with the appearance of ways of life different from that in rural communities, Fuelwood still retains a certain place, however. Commercial fuels, particularly oil products, are more widely used the larger the town and the higher the purchasing power (20 to 50 percent).
In the towns, in addition to handicraft and semi-industrial requirements, fuelwood and charcoal are also used by public and private groups. In the case of land-locked countries without other resources (e.g. Mali, Burundi, Rwanda, Chad), wood is required for certain industrial activities: cigarette and match-making, large-scale bakeries, tanneries, breweries, tea factories.
There is an intensive trade in wood and charcoal, often characterized by the size of the profits made by the middlemen in complex and obscure distribution systems, to the detriment of the small consumers.
To sum up, energy requirements in rural areas may be schematically shown as follows:
Table 3 - ENERGY REQUIREMENTS IN RURAL AREAS IN AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA
|
Country |
Energy requirements per inhabitant GJ/person/year |
Percentage of the different sources of energy used |
Minimum fuelwood needs, including charcoal m³/person/year |
|
|
Fuelwood and charcoal |
Others |
|||
|
Lowland or tableland countries in dry regions |
10 to 14 |
95 to 98% |
2 to % (oil) |
1 to 1.5 |
|
Lowland or tableland countries in humid regions |
12 to 14 |
95 to 98% |
2 to 5% (oil) |
1.2 to 1.5 |
|
Mountainous or upland countries (above 1 500 m) |
14 to 18 |
90 to 95% |
5 to 10% (oil, animal waste) |
1.4 to 1.9 |
In towns, fuelwood requirements, including charcoal, should be considered as being, on average three-quarters of rural consumption, or 0.75 to 1.2 m³/person/year in lowland and tableland countries and 1.15 to 1.4 m³ in mountainous areas.
Subdesert and desert countries in which the nomad populations have a very different subsistence economy, and which, therefore, consume much less energy materials, will be considered separately, as will the nomadic peoples of the Arab countries (Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria). A consumption of 0.5 m³ per person per year will, therefore, be assumed.
a) Natural formations - Three main physiognomic types of forest vegetation cover tropical Africa:
(1) closed, usually moist, multi-storeyed forests consisting of a mixture of hardwood species, in which the density of the upper cover and the size of the trees varies greatly. The standing volume per hectare, therefore, varies from 250 to 600 m³ (volume of trees with a diameter of more than 10 cm, including large branches) and fuelwood output (after extraction of industrial wood) may be estimated at between 2 and 4 m3/ha/year. The areas classified as productive (as defined in the UNEP/FAO study which served as a source of information) amount to 162 million hectares.
(2) open forest and wooded savanna in which the "forest cover" ¹ is more than 40 percent and the bottom layer is grass-covered, enabling fire to pass. The fuelwood output of these formations is 0.8 to 1.2 m³/ha/year. These formations correspond, to the mixed forest-grassland. formations called productive in the UNEP/FAO study, and cover a total area of 170.7 million hectares.
¹ Forest covert area occupied by the crowns of the trees.
(3) tree savanna in which the forest cover is between 10 and 40 percent of the area and fuelwood production is 0.2 to 0.8 m³/ha/year. These formations correspond in the UNEP/FAO study to the mixed forest-grassland formations called unproductive for physical reasons. The total area is 282 million hectares.
To these three types of forests must be added bush and shrub formations, the density of which varies greatly, (the total area is estimated at 444.6 million hectares) and whose fuelwood yield may be estimated at between 0.05 and 0.2 m³/ha/year. Finally, many areas are covered by forest fallow, which does not represent an inconsiderable source of woody material. The estimated area in 1980 was 61.6 million hectares of closed forest fallow and 104.8 million hectares of wooded savanna fallow, with a fuelwood yield varying between 0.5 and 2 m³/ha/year.
(b) Forest plantations
(1) Plantations for industrial purposes
These plantations set up in order to produce either lumber and timber for sawing and peeling, or wood for paper pulp plants, can constitute a source of fuelwood either when thinnings are carried out (for plantations with a long rotation) or during final harvesting. The total area of industrial plantations set up in 1980 in the African countries covered by this study is estimated at about 1 108 000 ha, broken down as follows:
- hardwood species with a long rotation (not quick-growing): 300 000 ha
- hardwood species with a short rotation (quick growing); 181 000 ha
- coniferous species: 627 000 ha
The situation varies greatly from country to country. Some countries have little or no industrial plantations (Sahel countries, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Central African Republic, Liberia, Sierra Leone), others, on the contrary, have more than 50 000 ha of plantations (Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zimbabwe). Many of these plantations are already old (20 years and over); their condition varies, depending particularly on the size of the Forest Service and the means at its disposal, because these plantations almost always belong to the State.
It is fairly difficult to estimate their productivity, and particularly their potential fuelwood output. Many of them are not, really managed and thinning programmes are, therefore, unforeseable. It has, therefore, been arbitrarily assumed that the potential fuelwood yield equals 40 percent of the final output in hardwood plantations for lumber (or 2 to 4 m³/ha/year according to the zone) and 15 percent of the final output in coniferous plantations for lumber (or 1.5 to 2 m³/ha year) and in plantations of both hardwood and softwood species for paper pulp (or 1 to 3 m³/ha/year).
(2) Plantations for non-industrial purposes
These plantations are usually set up to produce fuelwood and rural building timber, or fruit (cashew trees), or rubber, resin or tannin (Acacia), The areas planted in Africa are slight as compared with those in Latin America and above all in Asia. Only a few countries had relatively large areas in 1980: Ghana 49 000 ha, Angola 89 000 ha (40 000 ha of which were intended essentially to fuel railway steam engines), Ethiopia 97 000 ha, Madagascar 154 000 ha, Sudan 130 000 ha (two-thirds intended mainly for rubber production (Acacia africana). Tanzania and Uganda 30 000 ha each, Zimbabwe 28 000 ha, Rwanda 25 000 ha, Kenya 24 000, Nigeria 17 000, and finally Burundi 13 000 ha. All the other countries had less than 12 000 ha of non-industrial plantations. Altogether, the African countries covered by the study have about 785 000 ha of non-industrial plantations ¹, of which about 640 000 ha are specifically intended, in principle, for the production of fuel-wood. The main species planted ares Acacia spp., Prosopis juliflora, Azadirachta indica, Cassia siamea, Gmelina arborea, Dalbergia sissoo, Casuarina equisetifolia.
¹ Source: FAO/UNEP Project on the Evaluation of Tropical Forest Resources.
It seems that many of these plantations are unfortunately badly tended, or degraded by excessive (often illegal) cutting. This is because they have often been established in rural areas without any precise management plan having been drawn up and in the absence of any well-established managing authority. The estimates made by FAO take these factors into account and, therefore, include only plantations considered to be really productive in 1980. It is necessary, however, to be prudent regarding future developments. The output of these plantations varies from 2 to 10 m³/ha/year according to the region.
(c) Other natural woody resources; row plantations, hedges, village woodlots, orchards, trees scattered over cultivated land
It is extremely difficult to assess the amount of woody material that can be used as fuelwood obtainable from this type of woody vegetation. Consideration of the extent of cultivated land and the average number of trees per hectare makes it possible to put forward estimates which must be considered as probable orders of magnitude but certainly not amounts actually available. Trees are usually considered as an important element in the environment, but no active and dynamic efforts are made to preserve, far less to increase, them, and tree-planting in rural areas, therefore, remains limited.
(d) Agricultural and industrial residues
In section 2.3.4 it has been mentioned that in the majority of African countries these residues are only very occasionally used for energy purposes, although in many countries they represent a potential that could be used with profit. But with the exception of cases of acute scarcity which make it necessary to resort to all available resources, it seems very improbable that the people will change their habits. It is, therefore, not realistic to take this resource into account in the overall balance of existing supplies.
The case of the mountainous countries and the small Indian Ocean islands deserves to be considered separately, and an estimate of the agricultural residues available can be given on the basis of the agricultural production statistics.
Since these countries are already in a situation of acute scarcity, domestic and artisanal energy requirements are partly met from substitute fuels such as maize stalks, banana leaves, bagasse, groundnut and bean husks and pods, the straw of various cereals and remnants not buried when cutting is carried out. This also applies to the Mossi lands (in Upper Volta) and Haoussa land (in Niger), where the acute scarcity of woody matter has led the inhabitants to use everything possible: millet, sorghum and maize chaff, rice straw, groundnut shells and even cow-dung.
Industrial residues (sawdust, shavings, fragments from sawing and peeling) offer few possibilities, because the wood industry is very little developed in most of the tropical African countries.
The zone-by-zone analysis showed that the situations could be classified into six categories relatively homogeneous as regards natural woody vegetation (area and productivity) and population (density and level of requirements for woody energy material).
Category 1) Desert and subdesert zones with little or no forest resources and usually few inhabitants;Category 2) Zones of wooded savanna and savanna with trees, heavily populated;
Category 3) Zones of wooded savanna and savanna with trees, sparsely populated;
Category 4) Dense forest zones where the forest stands have been and continue to be under heavy pressure from food-crop cultivation and plantations, carried out by a relatively dense population;
Category 5) Dense forest zones with immense forest resources and usually small population;
Category 6) Very heavily populated zones where the forest vegetation is either severely degraded or inaccessible.
(a) Category 1 - This comprises:
- in West Africa, the following desert and subdesert zones: Mauritania, northern Mali, northern Niger, northern Chad;- in East and Southern Africa: northern Sudan, Djibouti, north-east Kenya, eastern Ethiopia (Ogaden), Somalia, Botswana, Namibia.
These zones cover an area of 605.2 million hectares inhabited by only 14.6 million people, most of them nomadic shepherds. The areas covered by woody vegetation are almost exclusively shrub or tree formations with very low productivity (0.1 to 0.2 m³/ha/year on average). Overall, in view of the considerable area covered, the amount of woody material theoretically available seems relatively great (0.9 m³/person/year), but this figure masks the real situation, because despite the itinerant way of life which enables the populations to cover large areas, the very low yield of the shrubby vegetation is insufficient to meet their needs for wood fuel. The average amount of woody material really accessible may be estimated at 5 percent of the apparent supplies, or only 0.06 m³/person/year.
Plantations cover only 20 000 hectares - 9 000 in Ogaden and 11 000 in Somalia (irrigated plantations) - and there are no other woody resources available.
As a result there is a fuelwood deficit of some 0.4 m³/person/year, leading to over-cutting of the existing vegetation and desertification.
This is aggravated by grazing: the rate of stocking very often exceeds the carrying capacity of the grassy vegetation, which is, therefore, supplemented by drawing on the woody vegetation. Finally, the unfavourable climatic conditions of the seventies have increased desertification, limiting the possibilities for regeneration of the grassy and woody rangelands and causing the vegetation physiologically weakened by over-cutting of its leafy branches to die. The situation is, therefore, particularly serious for all the desert and subdesert areas south of the Sahara which have very few woody resources.
(b) Category 2 - This comprises wooded savanna and savanna with trees where the forest resources are low as compared with a sizable population.
These zones are spread throughout Africa and coincide with zones with a considerable population. They are:
- In North - west Africa;Northern Senegal, western Senegal, Gambia, northern Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Togo, southern Benin, central Upper Volta, southern Niger, northern Nigeria.
- in Central Africa;
Northern Cameroon, western Cameroon, central Congo, western Zaire, eastern and western Angola, southern Zaire.
- In Southern and Eastern Africa and Madagascar;
Eastern Zambia, Malawi, southern Mozambique, western and south-eastern Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, Eritrea, central and south-western Madagascar.
These zones cover a total area of 533 million hectares inhabited by 146 million people, 90 percent of whom live in rural areas (including villages and towns with less than 100 000 inhabitants).
Closed forests cover only a very small area: 2.1 million hectares; the other formations comprise 45.4 million ha of open forest and wooded savanna, 88.6 million hectares of tree savanna and 89 million hectares of shrub formations. To these natural formations should be added about 48.5 million hectares of forest fallow, a considerable source of wood fuel.
Extensive though these areas are as compared with the population, the way in which the latter is distributed makes it probable that at least 40 percent of the fuelwood sources are not really accessible to the populations, thus reducing total accessible supplies to 78.1 million m³ per year.
The average accessible amount per inhabitant is, therefore, only 0.54 m³/person/ year, which is decidedly inadequate as compared with needs (which are more or less double).
The plantations existing in 1980 comprised 540 000 ha of industrial plantations (80 000 ha hardwood and 460 000 ha softwood, situated mainly in Kenya (150 000 ha), Madagascar (112 000 ha) and Malawi (69 000 ha). Their fuelwood yield varies from 1 to 2 m³/ha/year. There are also 350 000 ha of fuelwood plantations, with an average yield of 4 m³/ha/year. Al together, the amount of fuelwood available from plantations is some 2 200 000 m³ a year, or only 0.015 m³/person/year.
The other woody resources (woodlots and scattered trees) are, for these countries with a large agricultural area, a type of resource all the more important in that they lie near the places of consumption. The following estimates can be given on the basis of the regional surveys:
|
|
Total amount available |
Amount available per inhabitant |
|
1 000 m³/year |
m³/year |
|
|
West Africa |
2 700 |
0.05 |
|
Central Africa |
1 200 |
0.04 |
|
Southern and Eastern Africa |
2 200 |
0.04 |
|
Madagascar |
260 |
0.037 |
or an average of 0.04 m³/person/year.
In conclusion, altogether these zones have a total accessible wood supply of material of some 87 million m³ per year, or 0.66 m³/inhabitant. This is insufficient to cover requirements, which are between 1 and 1.5 m³/person/year. The deficit is, therefore, about 0.2 to 0.9 m³/person/year.
The existing woody formations are, therefore, either totally destroyed or over-cut to meet needs, in a process which aggravates the situation in these zones.
In some of these zones the situation is alarming owing to the increasing scarcity of woody formations and/or their degradation. They are rapidly proceeding towards a situation of acute scarcity already perceptible in large and medium-size urban centres (more than 20 000 inhabitants). This is the case in Senegal, Cape Verde, Sine Saloum, the river region in Gambia, central Upper Volta (Mossi plateau), north-western Nigeria (Haoussa-land), southern Togo and southern Benin, western Cameroon (Bamiléké land), the zone around Lake Victoria (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania), southern Malawi and the zone where Shaba (Zaire) and Zambia touch. Wherever population density exceeds 50 inhabitants per km , there is a situation of potential deficit, and when the density exceeds 100 inhabitants per km-, the situation evolves rapidly towards acute scarcity, which affects the urban centres first but spreads to the rural areas.
The relatively large urban centres (more than 50 000 inhabitants) in these countries are already in a deficit situation as regards domestic energy, because the people can no longer find fuelwood and charcoal in sufficient quantities and at acceptable prices owing to the distance from sources of supply and the almost universal absence of price control.
(c) Category 3
This comprises zones composed essentially of 'wooded savanna or savanna with trees, sometimes including closed forest stands, where the population is relatively small as compared with the total supplies of woody material.
- In North-West AfricaSouth-eastern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, southern Mali, southern Upper Volta, northern Ivory Coast, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, south-eastern Niger, eastern Upper Volta, central and southern Chad.
- In Central Africa
Northern and central Central African Republic, southern Angola and central Zaire.
- In Southern and Eastern Africa
Eastern Botswana, Zimbabwe, western Zambia, northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania, central and southern Sudan.
This group of zones and countries covers an area of 736.3 million ha, with a total population of only 67.8 million, 96 percent rural. In rural areas the average density of 9 inhabitants/km2 is markedly below that of the countries and zones in Category 2 (25 inhabitants/km2).
Productive forest formations cover a much larger area than in the countries and zones in Category 2: 8.4 million ha of closed forest, 101.2 million ha of wooded savanna and open forest, 149.4 million ha of savanna with trees and 175 million ha of shrub vegetation, to which must be added 59 million ha of fallow. The apparent total annual supply of woody material is 260 million m3. However, the size of the areas and the uneven distribution of the populations leads to a reduction of this supply by about 50 percent, whence an annual accessible supply of 130 million m³, or an average of 1.9 m³/person/year. Requirements for energy-producing woody material are, therefore, usually met from the natural formations alone.
Only a limited amount of plantations have been established in these countries: 209 000 ha of industrial plantations (55 000 ha in Sudan), and 135 000 ha of fuelwood plantations (49 000 in Ghana and 40 000 in Sudan). Total annual supplies of fuelwood are around 867 000 m³.
The annual amount available per inhabitant is, therefore, 0,013 m³ , comparable to that of the countries in Category 2. In conclusion, taking into account average requirements, which are between 1 and 1.5 m³/person/year, and not counting other woody resources (not very abundant) such as woodlots and agricultural and industrial residues, the balance between needs and resources is positive (0.3 to 1.1 m³/person/year). However, this should not mask the difficulties that certain large urban centres, such as Bamako and Ndjamena, have in obtaining enough fuelwood.
(d) Category 4
This consists of zones of closed forest in which the forest stands have been and continue to be subjected to great pressure from food-crop cultivation and plantations. It comprises essentially the forest zones of West Africa along the Gulf of Guinea; Ivory Coast, south-eastern Guinea, Liberia, south-western Ghana, southern Nigeria, southern and north-eastern Madagascar. In West Africa these zones cover a limited area of 70 million ha, but the population is quite big - 42.2 million in 1980. Big urban concentration exist: Monrovia, Abidjan, Accra and above all the towns in southern Nigeria, including Lagos and Ibadan. Altogether some 8 million people, or 19 percent of the total population, live in towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants.
Productive closed forests covered no more than 11.1 million hectares in 1980, i.e. between a quarter and a fifth of the area covered by these forest stands at the beginning of the century. The rate of deforestation has increased during the last thirty years, and although it is slowing down a little now, it still remains worrying. Considerable areas -about 29.7 million hectares - are covered by forest fallows, which must be considered as potential producers of fuelwood. The apparent total annual amount of wood fuel available is 92.7 million m³. If the proportion of this resource accessible to the people is estimated at 80 percent, this gives an annual accessible supply of 74.1 million m³, or 1.76 m³/person/year in terms of the total population, and more than 2 m³ in terms of the rural population alone.
In Madagascar, the north-eastern part of the island (districts of Diego Suarez and Tamatave) has 7 million ha of closed forest for a population of 2.2 million. The theoretical annual fuelwood supply is 28 million m³. However, the population is practically confined to the coastal plains and the greater part of the forests (85 percent) situated in the mountainous parts is inaccessible to them. The accessible annual supply is, therefore, about 4.2 million m³, or 1.9 m³/person/year, as compared with needs of 1.2 to 1.7 m³/person/year.
The plantations established in these countries are essentially industrial plantations of broadleaved species, 113 000 ha with a long rotation and 67 000 ha with a short rotation. The total annual fuelwood supply may be estimated at 650 000 m³ , or an average amount per. inhabitant of 0.014 m³, which is very little. The concentration of these plantations does, however, confer considerable interest on them, particularly for supplying the large urban centres. Taking just the inhabitants of towns with a population of more than 100 000 (7.9 million), the supply is in fact 0.11 m³/person/year.
In conclusion, the present positive balance between resources and needs (0.3 to 0.8 m³/person conceals a trend towards imbalance, at a point in the future varying according to the country, and even current difficulties in supplying large towns such as Abidjan, Accra, Lagos and Ibadan.
(e) Category 5
This consists of zones of closed forest with large resources and usually fairly sparsely populated, situated in central Africa; the southern part of the Central African Republic, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, northern Zaire, northern Angola, southern Congo, northern Congo. The total area of these zones is 201 million ha and the population only 8.4 million, of whom 2.2 million live in towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants. The rural population is, therefore, sparse (average 3 per km2), even rare in certain zones. The natural formations comprise 133.6 million ha of closed forest and 19.5 million ha of open forest. The total amount of fuelwood theoretically available is considerable: 461 million m³ per year. Even if it is agreed that in fact only 10 percent of the wooded areas are accessible to the populations, the annual supply is 5 to 7 m³/ inhabitant, which is a considerable amount.
The area of plantations established is very small: 52 000 ha of broadleaved species for industrial purposes, potentially able to produce about 200 000 m³ of fuelwood per year, which is very little. The average amount provided per inhabitant taking only the large towns, however, is 0.075 m³/year.
In conclusion, these zones have a very positive balance which makes them safe from any difficulty and even places them in a potential situation of exporters of woody material or of energy manufactured from this biomass.
(f) Category 6
This consists of countries with a very dense population and a forest vegetation extremely degraded and/or inaccessible to the people: the mountainous countries of East Africa and the small islands in the Indian Ocean.
The mountainous zones in Bast Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, central Ethiopia, Lesotho, Swaziland) have an extremely degraded forest cover; in the case of Burundi and Lesotho it is even almost entirely destroyed. The forest formations that survive are often inaccessible because they are at a high altitude (the Zaire-Nile ridge in Burundi, the mountains of Ethiopia).
For the whole of these zones, which contain the densest rural populations in Africa, the apparent total annual supply of fuelwood is only 10.8 million m³, or 0.26 m³/person/ year. Leaving aside central Ethiopia, the four small countries of Burundi, Rwanda, Lesotho and Swaziland together have 11.8 million inhabitants over a total area of 10.1 million ha and with an apparent total annual supply of 1.2 million m³ , or 0.1 m³/person/year, which is extremely low and places these countries in a situation of very acute scarcity.
Mauritius, Reunion and the Comoros, which have a total of 1 850 000 inhabitants, are in a situation of acute scarcity that is extremely serious in the Comoros and Mauritius, where the annual supply per inhabitant is 0.03 to 0.05 m³/person/year. The situation of this group of islands with a rapidly growing population resembles in many respects that of the small mountainous countries of Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, Lesotho, Swaziland).
Relatively large plantations have been established in certain zones - 72 000 ha of conifers in Swaziland, fuelwood plantations in Ethiopia, Rwanda and Mauritius - and their. productivity is excellent owing to the fertility of the soil.
Altogether, the total area of plantations was estimated in 1980 at 247 000 ha, of which 125 000 ha are for the production of fuelwood (average yield 10 m³/ha/year, 96000 ha industrial plantations of conifers, and 26 000 ha industrial plantations of broadleaved species. The total annual amount of fuelwood available is estimated at 1.5 million m³. But this gives only an average supply per inhabitant of 0.038 m³/year.
The other sources of woody material can be estimated at 1.72 million m³/year from farm woodlots and 8 million m³ from agricultural residues, or a total of 0.24 m³/person/ year.
The total annual supply of woody material per inhabitant in the mountainous countries is, therefore, 0.54 m³/person/year.
Bearing in mind the needs, which are between 1.4 and 1.9 m³/person/year, these countries are already in a situation of acute scarcity: they are short of the equivalent of 0,85 to 1.35 m³/person to satisfy domestic and artisanal requirements. Despite the big use made of dried dung and agricultural residues, to the detriment of soil fertility, the woody vegetation that remains is exploited beyond its yield capacity, whence ever more pronounced degradation. In the small islands supplies are notoriously inadequate, and even though requirements are in fact lower, they are faced with a situation of acute scarsity similar to that in the mountainous zones.
The following tables show respectively:
- the amount of woody material available
- the present overall balance.
They demonstrate the seriousness of the situation in the subdesert countries (countries south of the Sahara in particular) and in the heavily populated zones (mountainous countries of East Africa, small Indian Ocean islands, heavily populated savanna in West Africa).
They also show the considerable importance of the forest reserves of central Africa, the total annual yield from which is more than 35 times greater than the annual consumption of the populations inhabiting these zones.
TABLE 4 - WOODY RESOURCES FROM NATURAL FORMATIONS
|
Zone Category |
Productive closed forests |
Productive open forests and wooded savanna |
Savanna with trees |
Shrub formations |
Closed forest fallow |
Savanna fallow |
volume of fuelwood |
|||
|
Weighted average |
Annual supply |
Amount accessible per inhabitant |
||||||||
|
|
Apparent total |
Accessible total |
|
|||||||
|
|
million hectares |
m³/ha/year |
million m³ |
m³/year |
||||||
|
1 |
0 |
2.0 |
34.9 |
168.6 |
0 |
5.3 |
0.08 |
17.4 |
0.9 |
0.06 |
|
2 |
2.1 |
45.4 |
88.6 |
89.0 |
1.0 |
48.0 |
0.47 |
130.2 |
78.4 |
0.54 |
|
3 |
8.4 |
101.2 |
149.4 |
175.0 |
14.6 |
51.5 |
0.56 |
259.7 |
129.8 |
1.91 |
|
4 |
18.1 |
e |
e |
e |
66.4 |
0 |
2.35 |
120.7 |
78.3 |
1.76 |
|
5 |
133.6 |
19.5 |
e |
e |
41.2 |
0 |
2.99 |
461.5 |
46.1 |
5.50 |
|
6 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
9.1 |
12.0 |
0 |
E |
0.44 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
0.26 |
|
TOTAL |
162 |
170.7 |
282.0 |
444.6 |
61.6 |
104.8 |
|
|||
TABLE 5 - WOODY RESOURCES FROM PLANTATIONS EXISTING IN 1980
|
Zone |
Industrial plantation |
Fuelwood plantations |
Annual fuelwood supply |
Annual fuelwood supply per inhabitant |
||
|
Area 1 000 ha |
Volume of fuelwood 1 000 m³/year |
Area 1 000 ha |
Volume of fuelwood 1 000 m³/year |
1 000 m3 |
m³/person/year |
|
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
40 |
40 |
0.003 |
|
2 |
540 |
825 |
350 |
1 400 |
2 225 |
0.015 |
|
3 |
209 |
327 |
135 |
540 |
867 |
0.013 |
|
4 |
185 |
653 |
e |
e |
653 |
0.014 |
|
5 |
52 |
196 |
e |
e |
196 |
0.024 |
|
6 |
122 |
277 |
125 |
1 250 |
1 527 |
0.038 |
|
TOTAL |
1 108 |
2 278 |
630 |
3 230 |
5 508 |
|
TABLE 6 - WOODY RESOURCES AVAILABLE IN 1980
|
Categories |
Population 1980 |
Total annual accessible supplies |
Supplies per inhabitant |
||||||
|
Total |
Rural |
Natural, formations¹ |
Plantations |
Farm woodlots |
Wood waste |
Total |
m³/ Total |
||
|
Total |
Rural |
||||||||
|
1 |
14.6 |
13.1 |
0.9 |
0.04 |
0 |
0 |
0.94 |
0.06 |
0.07 |
|
2 |
146.0 |
131.4 |
78.4 |
2.22 |
6.36 |
NE |
86.98 |
0.60 |
0.66 |
|
3 |
67.8 |
65.0 |
129.8 |
0.87 |
NE |
NE |
130.67 |
1.93 |
2.01 |
|
4 |
44.4 |
36.5 |
78.3 |
0.65 |
NE |
NE |
78.95 |
1.78 |
2.16 |
|
5 |
8.4 |
6.2 |
46.1 |
0.20 |
0 |
0 |
46.30 |
5.51 |
7.46 |
|
6 |
40.5 |
35.7 |
10.8 |
1.53 |
1.72 |
8 |
22.05 |
0.54 |
0.62 |
|
(Ethiopia) |
(26.8) |
(24.7) |
(9.4) |
(0.97) |
(1.0) |
(5.2) |
(16.6) |
(0.62) |
(0.67) |
¹ In the broad sense, i.e. including closed forests, open forests, and wooded savanna and savanna with trees, shrub formations and forest fallows, but excluding the zones legally unproductive or physically inaccessible (mountains, swamps).
TABLE 7 - OVERALL BALANCE 1980
|
Countries and zones |
Level of needs¹ |
Level of supplies |
Balance |
Order of magnitude of total surpluses and deficits |
Order of magnitude of reserves not yet accessible |
|
Category 1 |
0.5 |
0.05 to 0.1 |
- 0.44 |
- 6 |
|
|
Category 2 |
1 to 1.5 |
0.8 to 0.9 |
- 0.2 to - 0.9 |
- 65 |
52 |
|
Category 3 |
1 to 1.5 |
1.8 to 2.1 |
+0.25 to + 1.10 |
+45 |
130 |
|
Category 4 |
1.2 to 1.7 |
1.8 to 2.1 |
+ 0.3 to + 0.8 |
+ 20 |
42 |
|
Category 5 |
1.2 to 1.7 |
5 to 10 |
+4 |
+ 35 |
415 |
|
Category 6 |
1.4 to 1.9 |
0.5 to 0.7 |
- 0.7 to - 1.4 |
- 40 |
0 |
¹ The level of needs taken into account are those of the rural populations.
4.3.1 Growth in population and needs
4.3.2 Changes in wood energy resources
The division of countries makes it difficult to make population forecasts for the year 2000 by zone. These estimates are, therefore, based on average figures for population increase as they emerge from the FAO's statistical forecasts. We thus have the following results:
TABLE 8 POPULATION FORECASTS FOR 2000
|
Country |
Populations in 2000 (millions) |
||
|
Rural |
Urban centres > 100 000 inhabitants |
Total |
|
|
Category 1 |
19 |
3 |
22 |
|
Category 2 |
215 |
35 |
250 |
|
Category 3 |
112 |
7 |
119 |
|
Category 4 |
63 |
15 |
78 |
|
Category 5 |
9 |
5 |
14 |
|
Category 6 |
55 |
11 |
66 |
|
(of which central Ethiopia) |
40 |
5 |
45 |
Unless special and widespread action is undertaken, the populations' fuelwood requirements will probably remain at their present level, because at present there are no a priori grounds for assuming that consumption will be decreased either through substitution by other sources of energy, or through improvements in the energy yield from domestic uses.
It is, therefore, assumed that the present level of consumption in rural areas will persist and there will be a slight decrease in the level of consumption in the large towns: overall a decrease of about 5 percent in the average per capita consumption.
(a) Natural formations
1. Subdesert steppe and savanna vegetation Account is taken both of the increase in population and of the amounts effectively removed by these populations from the existing wood capital.2. Closed forest vegetation The figure for destruction of the forest formations as they emerge from the estimates made by FAO in 1978. and 1980 are used. The following figures are obtained:
TABLE 9 - NATURAL FOREST FORMATIONS; FUELWOOD SUPPLIES IN 2000
|
Category of country and zone |
Area Closed, forest wooded savanna and savanna with tree s, including fallow |
Area shrub formations |
Average weighted yield of woody formations |
Total annual supplies in the year 2000 |
Accessible supply per inhabitant/year |
|
|
Apparent |
Accessible |
|||||
|
million hectares |
m³/ha/year |
million m³ |
m³/person/year |
|||
|
Category 2 |
147 |
89 |
0.40 |
95 |
95 1 |
0.40 |
|
Category 3 |
291 |
175 |
0.50 |
233 |
163 ² |
1.45 |
|
Category 4 |
44 |
e |
2.1 |
92 |
83 ³ |
1.05 |
|
Category 6 |
19 |
1 |
0.30 |
6 |
6 |
0.09 |
¹ Equal to 100% of total supplies (60% in 1980)
² Equal to 70% of total supplies (50% in 1980)
³ Equal to 90% of total supplies (80% in 1980)
No precise figures are given for the zones in the first category (desert and sub-desert), because the mobility of the populations makes it difficult to assess what changes will occur in the supplies of wood resources. Although it is certain that the deficit ascertained in 1980 will lead through over-use of the grazing areas to progressive (and irreversible) degradation of the vegetation, particularly around the watering points, it may also be supposed that the populations will modify their itineraries in order to look for more favourable zones. In any event the situation is bound to worsen, but the present situation is so serious that there is not really any need for additional figures to confirm it.
Similarly, no figures have been given for the zones in category 5, because the immensity of the forest areas and hence of the resources will make it possible, to satisfy the populations* needs without any problem.
(b) Plantations
(1) Industrial plantations
It is extremely difficult to make projections in this field. The study conducted by FAO in 1978¹ foresaw the establishment between 1975 and 2000 of 1.2 million hectares of industrial plantations in Africa (excluding the Republic of South Africa), consisting of 0.65 million ha of conifers and 0.55 million ha of broadleaved species, with an almost equal distribution within the two categories between plantations for timber and plantations for paper pulp. These forecasts, based on countries' official programmes, seem fairly probable, since the 1980 forecasts were 1.25 million ha and the new estimates are for 1,24 million ha actually planted. If one examines the short-term forecasts (1980-85 period) made by FAO in 1980, it will even be seen that the rate of reforestation forecast is tending to accelerate for some countries - Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, Madagascar, Zambia - even though for others - Liberia, Cameroon, Zaire - the forecasts seem to have been too optimistic. These 1980-85 forecasts will, therefore, be used, extrapolated to 2000 without modifying the rate of increase.
¹ "Present and Future Forest and Plantation Areas in the Tropics", Lanly, J.P. and Clement, J., Rome, 1979.
This makes it possible to draw up the following table:
TABLE 10 - AREA OF INDUSTRIAL PLANTATIONS IN 2000
|
Category of country |
Forecast of areas planted by 2000 (thousands of ha) |
Average annual rate of reforestation (ha) |
|||
|
Broadleaved Long rotation |
Broadleaved Short rotation |
Coniferous |
Total |
Per 1 000 inhabitants |
|
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
2 |
257 |
127 |
792 |
19 000 |
0.13 |
|
3 |
116 |
20 |
51 |
4 500 |
0.07 |
|
4 |
553 |
253 |
80 |
35 000 |
0.83 |
|
5 |
55 |
13 |
56 |
1 700 |
0.20 |
|
6 |
13 |
19 |
120 |
1 500 |
0.04 |
This gives the following supplies of fuelwood, based on 40 percent of the total volume produced for the broadleaved lumber plantations and 15 percent of the volume for broadleaved pulp plantations and coniferous plantations.
TABLE 11 - INDUSTRIAL PLANTATIONS IN 2000: FUELWOOD SUPPLIES (thousand m³5)
|
Category of country |
Broadleaved plantations Long rotation |
Broadleaved plantations Short rotation |
Coniferous plantations |
TOTAL |
|
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
2 |
514 |
127 |
1 188 |
1 829 |
|
3 |
232 |
20 |
76 |
328 |
|
4 |
2 212 |
759 |
160 |
3 131 |
|
5 |
220 |
39 |
112 |
371 |
|
6 |
52 |
57 |
240 |
349 |
|
TOTALS |
3 230 |
717 |
1 776 |
6 008 |
The total annual supply from industrial plantations, which was 2.3 million m³ in 1980, will rise to 6 million m3 in 2000.
(2) Fuelwood plantations
Forecasting is even more difficult here than for the industrial plantations. However, a projection to the year 2000 of present rates of reforestation gives the following results:
TABLE 12 - NON-INDUSTRIAL PLANTATIONS IN 2000
|
Category of country |
Area planted between 1980 and 2000 |
Area planted annually |
Total area in 2000 |
Fuelwood supply |
|
hectares |
hectares |
hectares |
thousands of m³ |
|
|
1 |
50 000 |
2 500 |
70 000 |
140 |
|
2 |
650 000 |
32 500 |
850 000 |
3 400 |
|
3 |
140 000 |
7 000 |
245 000 |
980 |
|
4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
5 |
- |
- |
-. |
- |
|
6 |
380 000 |
19 000 |
505 000 |
5 050 |
|
Totals |
1 220 000 |
61 000 |
1 670 000 |
9 570 |
Note It has been assumed that the areas cut were immediately replaced by new plantations.
TABLE 13 - TOTAL FUELWOOD SUPPLIES FROM PLANTATIONS IN THE YEAR 2000
|
Category of country |
Total supplies |
Supplies per inhabitant |
||
|
Industrial plantations |
Non-industrial plantations |
Total |
||
|
(millions of m³) |
(millions of m³) |
(millions of m³) |
(m³/person/year) |
|
|
1 |
0 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.006 |
|
2 |
1.83 |
3.40 |
5.23 |
0.021 |
|
3 |
0.33 |
0.98 |
1.31 |
0.011 |
|
4 |
3.13 |
- |
3.13 |
0.040 |
|
5 |
0.37 |
- |
0.37 |
0.026 |
|
6 |
0.35 |
5.05 |
5.40 |
0.082 |
|
Totals |
6.01 |
9.57 |
15.58 |
|
(c) Other woody resources
It is assumed that the 1980 level of resources is stable, i.e. about 0.05 m³/ person/year, for Category 2, and the same figure is applied, to Category 3. In order to take into account the fact that the zones of Category 4 are situated in areas of closed forest with a higher yield, a level of resources equal to 0.15 m³/person/year is adopted for this category.
For Category 6 the same total level of supplies is adopted, assuming that the increase in population will lead to more complete use of existing space rather than to the settlement of new land, of which there is already almost none. The supply per inhabitant will, therefore, be lower than in 1980.
Supplies from other woody resources, therefore, appear as follows:
|
Categories |
Per capita supply from various woody resources (m³/person/year) |
|
1 |
none |
|
2 |
0.05 |
|
3 |
0.05 |
|
4 |
0.15 |
|
6 |
0.18 |
(d) Summary of supplies of woody material per inhabitant usable in the year 2000
TABLE 14 - FUELWOOD SUPPLIES IN 2000 (m³/inhab./yr.)
|
Country |
Natural woody formations |
Plantations |
Others |
Total |
|
Category 2 |
0.40 |
0.02 |
0.05 |
0.47 |
|
Category 3 |
1.45 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
,1.51 |
|
Category 4 |
1.05 |
0.04 |
0.15 |
1.24 |
|
Category 6 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.18 |
0.35 |
If this table is compared with Table 6 indicating resources in 1980, the following changes will be noticed:
- category 1: no quantitative change, but situation of increasingly acute scarcity owing to degradation of the vegetation;- category '2: drop of more than 20 percent in annual supplies per inhabitant resulting from increase in population and degradation of the woody vegetation. Slight contribution of forest plantations, representing only about 4 percent supplies;
- category 3: drop of 20 percent in annual supplies per inhabitant, it being assumed that 30 percent of the forest areas will remain inaccessible;
- category 4: drop of more than 30 percent in annual supplies per inhabitant owing to intensive clearing of the natural vegetation added to an increase in the population;
- category 6: drop of 35 percent in supplies despite considerable reforestation, which represents for the small countries (the whole category less central Ethiopia) about two - thirds of the supply.
TABLE 15 - BALANCE FORESEEABLE IN THE YEAR 2000 (m³/inhab./yr.)
|
Country |
Level of needs¹ |
Supply |
Balance |
|
Category 1 |
0.5 |
in the order of 0.1 |
- 0.4 |
|
Category 2 |
1 to 1.45 |
0.35 to 0.55 |
- 0.50 to - 1.1 |
|
Category 3 |
1 to 1.45 |
1.05 to 1.95 |
- 0.3 to + 0.8 |
|
Category 4 |
1.1 to 1.6 |
1.1 to 1.4 |
-0.5 to + 0.3' |
|
Category 5 |
1.1 to 1.6 |
>5 |
>4 |
|
Category 6 |
1.4 to 1.9 |
0.35 |
- 1 to - 1.6 |
¹ Needs reduced by 5 percent as compared with 1980c,
This balance makes it possible to establish the following:
Category 1 - Situation of acute scarcity apparently unchanged, but in fact aggravated by degradation of the vegetation, making it more and more difficult to obtain enough woody material,
Category 2 - Situation worse than in 1980, only 25 to 50 percent of needs being met from available resources, even assuming that all the areas covered by woody vegetation are accessible; the areas of acute scarcity detected in 1980 have now expanded to cover the entire zone in which they lie, and new zones are in a situation of acute scarcity; northern Cameroon, central Congo, western Zaire, central Angola, southern Mozambique, Eritrea.
The rural populations can cope with these situations by continuing to remove material in excess of the yield capacity of the woody vegetation, but the "urban" populations (towns with more than 20 000 inhabitants) are in a situation of increasingly acute scarcity which affects more than 80 million people.
This situation seriously mortgages the future, because the degradation of the natural woody vegetation caused by the clearing and over-cutting of stands is taking place in zones that are fragile from the point of view of both climate and soil and their vulnerability often renders ecological degradation irreversible. Over and above the woody vegetation is the entire ecosystem, including the possibility of human habitation, that is threatened.
Category 3 - Some zones belonging to this category reach the 1980 situation of zones in Category 2. This refers particularly to zones situated in West Africa: southern Mali, northern Benin, northern Togo, northern Ivory Coast, northern Ghana, south-eastern Niger, eastern and western Upper Volta, central and southern Chad; and in last Africa: central and northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In these zones the rural populations meet their requirements by over-cutting (or destroying) the existing vegetation. The urban populations have great difficulty in meeting their requirements and situations of acute scarcity already exist in the large towns. On the other hand, some zones in this category are already in a fairly satisfactory situation (northern and central Central African Republic, southern and south-eastern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, central Zaire, south-eastern Angola, western Zambia, eastern Botswana, Zimbabwe).
Category 4 - Radical reversal of situation; these zones in an overall situation of abundance in 1980 are partly in a deficit situation in 2000. This is due to the rapid increase in population and continuance of the practice of clearing already noted in 1980, even though allowance has been made for a certain slowing down in the extent of these clearings. In reality the rural populations are far from a situation of acute scarcity, in view of the productivity of the surviving woody vegetation and the possibility of using all kinds of wood waste which have not been taken into account in the estimates; but this situation of apparent overall deficit takes into account situations of prospective deficit in the large and medium-sized towns such as Abidjan, Daloa, Gagnoa, Man, Abeogourou, Bouaké in Ivory Coast; Accra, Kumasi, Sekondi, Rakoradi, Dunkiva, Oda au Ghana; Lagos, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Ijebu, Ode, Iwo, Oyo, Ogbomosho and Enugu in Nigeria; Monrovia and Buchanan in Liberia. Altogether more than 30 million people are affected.
Category 5 - Situation of abundance unchanged and no reversal in trend.
Category 6 - No noticeable worsening of the situation of acute scarcity existing in 1980, despite the increase in population, thanks to considerable reforestation (particularly in the small countries), but no improvement either. This means, to put it clearly, that the reforestation work undertaken is not enough and that it is necessary to supplement domestic and artisanal energy in other ways: local peat or imported commercial fuels?
Three main types of critical situations have been identified:
(1) Situations of acute scarcity
These concern four groups of populations
(i) The inhabitants of desert or sub-desert zones (Category 1). The situation is extremely serious in all the countries immediately south of the Sahara (northern Senegal, northern Mali, northern Niger, northern Chad and northern Sudan). In 1980 5 million people, mostly nomadic shepherds, were living spread over an immense stretch of 357 million ha.The rangelands and the areas around the watering points are over-used, despite the relatively limited level of needs consequent on the mode of existence: 0.5 m³/person/ year. The accessible supply of existing vegetation is very small (less than 0.1 m³/ person/year. No large-scale forestry solution to redress this situation is possible. Locally, reforestation around watering points with drought - resistant species (various Acacias in particular) can provide both feed for the animals and wood for the people, but the low yield of these plantations (less than 3 m³/ha/year) limits their scope considerably.
In East Africa (Ogaden, Somalia, north-eastern Kenya) and southern Africa (western Botswana and Namibia), the existence of a relatively vigorous natural vegetation attenuates the average deficits noted and makes the overall situation less serious.
(ii) The inhabitants of heavily-populated mountainous zones (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Lesotho, Swaziland). In 1980 there were 36 million people in this group living in rural areas; population density exceeded 100 per km , and the accessible forest areas are very limited. Only 20 to 30 percent of fuelwood needs (1.4 to 1.9 m³/ person/year) are covered by the resources. In Ethiopia 24 million rural inhabitants overcut all the accessible land and have ever greater difficulty in procuring fuelwood. In the small mountainous countries, 11.8 million people inhabit a total area of 10.1 million ha, with an annual average supply equal to 0.1 m³/person/year, or less than 7 percent of needs. Despite the over-cutting of all woody and plant resources there is an acute scarcity of fuelwood.
Although the soil, which is often of volcanic origin is very fertile, reforestation cannot be regarded as the only solution to this problem. To take the small countries alone, the existence of an additional 1 million ha of plantations producing 20 m³/ha/year would be required in 2000 to meet the people's minimum needs (about 1.5 m³/ha/year). This is absolutely impossible, not only because of the size of the programme, but even more owing to the unavailability of land. Forestry solutions can, therefore, be only partial and local, and the emphasis must be put more on the establishment of small communal or private woodlots and the planting and propagation of trees on agricultural land than on large-scale reforestation work.
(iii) The inhabitants of the small Indian Ocean islands. Some 2 million people are affected and find themselves in conditions fairly similar to those in the small mountainous countries. The problem will have to be solved in a number of different ways, since the amount of land available for plantations is limited.
(iv) The inhabitants of towns either in the zones referred to below or in the relatively heavily - populated savanna zones. This concerns some 15 million people. Their fuelwood needs are between 0.5 and 1 m³/person/year and they are experiencing difficulty in meeting these needs. There are two main reasons for this:
- a growing scarcity of resources at a distance compatible with economic transport conditions;- a constant rise in the prices of wood and charcoal, forcing the poorest to reduce their consumption.
Although the establishment of fuelwood plantations could help to make up the deficit for certain towns, owing to their relatively favourable geographical situation (Brazzaville, Lomé, Cotonou, Kinshasa, Nairobi, etc.), for many other towns (Dakar, Bamako, Niamey, Kano, Garoua, Njamena, etc.) the shortage of favourable land and the inevitably low productivity of plantations owing to harsh climatic conditions make it unrealistic to expect that fuelwood plantations could make more than a modest contribution to meeting domestic energy needs. Depending on the existing transport infrastructure, particularly railways, it might be more feasible in certain cases to transport woody material (in charcoal form or, better still, in briquettes) from the nearest natural forest zones to these urban centres.
(2) Deficit situations
These concern the great majority of the rural population (131.4 million people) living in the wooded and shrub savanna of the Category 2 zones. Supplies are between 0.7 and 1 m³/person/year and needs are estimated at 1 to 1.5 m³/person/year. In the majority of cases supplies do not cover needs, whence over-cutting of the existing vegetation. Until recently this over-cutting had not caused any obvious modification of the landscape, but with the population increasing and the effects of over-cutting accumulating, an ever more marked decrease is noticeable in the area of natural woody vegetation around villages, and little by little this vegetation is disappearing completely.
In many zones soil and climate conditions are hardly favourable to re-establishment of the forest and there are many obstacles to the success of forestry plantations. However, it is absolutely essential that maximum efforts be made to help the rural people reintroduce trees into the countryside, not only in the form of plantations managed by the State, but also in the form of private or community plantations managed by the inhabitants themselves with the technical assistance of the forest services. Assuming that a tree can yield oh average 0.1 m³ at 15 years, it would be enough for each family (10 to 15 people) to plant about one hundred trees a year to cover its minimum fuelwood needs. This would also result in an improvement in the environmental conditions and stabilization of the natural resources propitious to the maintenance or increase of agricultural productivity.
(3) Potential deficit situations (evolving towards a deficit situation), This concerns a part of the rural populations living in savanna zones where the population is increasing heavily (certain zones in Category 3), and the urban populations in forest zones with rapidly increasing populations (zones in Category 4).
In the savanna zones the populations involved are at present meeting their needs, estimated at 1 to 1.5 m³/person/year, by removing from the natural woody formations an amount which is often at the maximum limit compatible with sustained yield. In view of the very rapid growth in population, which will have increased by more than 50 percent by the year 2000, the present balance will disappear and be replaced by a deficit situation similar to that of the zones in Category 2. In 2000 only two-thirds of needs will be covered by supplies, leading the populations to over-cut the forest formations. In order to avoid this situation arising, it is necessary to take action immediately to ensure rational use of the existing resources and increase their yields. In effect, any measure aimed at protecting the natural formations against fire, over-grazing and over-cutting will eventually have a considerable effect on fuelwood production. Management of the forest formations should, therefore, be considered a priority. But it should not be imposed by a forestry service acting whether or not the population is willing. In many places it would be best to delimit forest areas for which rural communities will be given full responsibility and from which they will reach the full benefits, but whose technical management will be ensured by the forestry service. In addition to this action concerned with the natural formations, steps should also be taken to integrate trees in the agricultural land in the same way as is proposed for the zones already in a deficit situation.
In the closed forest zones of Category 4, situated essentially in West Africa, the rural populations should not really find themselves in a deficit situation, except around the large towns. The urban inhabitants ¹ (30 million in 2000), on the other hand, will no longer be able to count on fuelwood (and charcoal) to meet their basic domestic energy needs. The poorest social categories will, therefore, find themselves in a situation of deficit and or acute scarcity. In order to prevent or remedy this type of situation, it is necessary, while there is still time, that a municipal natural forest to provide fuel-wood be reserved for each of these towns, or that high-yielding plantations be established around them. For a town with 20 000 inhabitants consuming an average of 0.5 m³ per inhabitant per year, it would be enough to establish 400 ha of plantation producing 25 m³/ha/year after 10 years, or 40 ha per year. This implies, of course, the implementation of a policy attentive to the present and foreseeable needs of the people.
¹ Comprising those in large towns (more than 100 000 inhabitants) and medium-sized ones (10 000 to 100 000 inhabitants).
