5.1 Introduction
5.2 Regional situation in 1980
5.3 Prospects for the year 2000
The countries of North Africa and the Middle Bast form a heterogeneous group. Although all have some access to the sea, the extent of this varies greatly: the islands (Cyprus and Malta), Tunisia and Turkey, for example, have an extensive coastline; others, such as Iraq and Jordan, very little. There is also great geographical diversity: some countries have extensive mountainous zones which constitute the backbone of the country and are usually under forest (e.g. Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon and Turkey), while others have little hilly terrain. Even the climate is not homogeneous; it is not of a Mediterranean type everywhere (Turko-Iranian plateau, almost the whole of the Arabian peninsula, the Iran-deccanian zone), and where it is Mediterranean there are considerable variations, from Saharan to very humid; it can be said, however, that everywhere the rains, very variable from one region to another, are concentrated in the cool season with short days.
From the economic point of view, there are considerable differences between the petroleum-producing countries - some of which are among the largest producers and exporters: and the non-producers, and although all the countries covered by the present study are considered as developing, there is great economic inequality both between countries (Libya has a GNP of about US$8 400/year) but also sometimes within countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Morocco). The only common features are the presence of Islam and the great diversity of the human settlements.
|
|
Production |
Exportation¹ |
|
(million tonnes) |
||
|
Algeria |
55 |
45 |
|
Saudi Arabia |
519 |
398 |
|
Arab Emirates |
70 |
69 |
|
Iran |
77.9 |
51.9 |
|
Iraq |
125.2 |
132.9 |
|
Kuwait |
64.1 |
80.5 |
|
Libya |
81.5 |
88.5 |
|
Qatar |
22.2 |
22.7 |
¹ The quantities of crude oil produced and exported in 1980, according to the United Nations Yearbook of World Energy Statistics.
The problem of wood fuel is of great importance in the countries in this region, at least in those which would not be able to count on their own oil resources should delivery be suspended or slowed down through any cause. It is difficult to see how the inhabitants of Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco or Tunisia, for example, could warm themselves in winter or cook their food without the importation of petroleum products.
In a sense a crisis of this kind might even have serious immediate consequences in view of the relatively heavy dependence of all these countries on oil products,
The countries covered by this study are:
- the countries of North Africa: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Malta;- the countries of the Mediterranean Near East: Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Cyprus;
- the countries of the Persian Middle East: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Arab Republic of the Yemen, People's Democratic Republic of the Yemen.
5.2.1 Populations concerned and their energy needs
5.2.2 Present wood resources
5.2.3 Overall balance in 1980
The total population of the countries concerned is estimated at 160 million in 1980, of which 35 percent live in towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants and the other 65 percent in rural areas or small towns.
In view of the past and present over-cutting of the forests and the growing use of oil products, one cannot but be surprised to note that, although the per capita consumption of wood is decreasing noticeably, total consumption throughout the zone considered is increasing rather than diminishing. The overall rise in the standard of living is synonymous with a fall in the relative importance of wood fuels, but not with a decrease in the total amount used: it does seem that the decline in the use of wood fuel over the last two decades has been due much more to the availability and low price of oil fuel than to any other reason, including the rise in the standard of living. Neither in the past nor in the present, however, has the conomic availability of other fuels made it possible to meet the growing needs for wood fuel, to judge from the ever more marked degradation of the forest stands and other woody formations owing to the removal of fuelwood.
Urban consumption represents only about 20 percent of total consumption. This proportion will probably decrease, because the price of fuelwood and charcoal will probably continue to increase, the costs of cutting and transport being high, although less for charcoal than for fuelwood. In Lebanon a big drop in the use of wood fuels in the towns has already occurred, except among the poorest classes.
Average annual consumption per inhabitant may vary from 0.02 to more than 1 m³ of air-dried fuelwood, and there may be big variations within the same country. In the mountainous countries, such as Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco and Turkey, the proportion of wood fuels increases with the altitude, both because wood is more abundant in mountainous areas than in the lowlands, at least up to about 1 000 m, and because family incomes are lower.
This question of income is important and explains why, in certain countries that are big oil-producers, such as Algeria, the low budgetary resources of part of the population lead these people still to prefer wood, resulting in a relatively high consumption per capita. The situation regarding the level of fuelwood consumption is not the same in all countries, however: in certain "forestry" countries, such as Cyprus, petroleum products are widely used, in particular for domestic purposes. Other countries without forests consume practically no wood fuels: Israel, Libya .and the countries of the Arabian peninsula, with the exception of the two Yemen, depend entirely on the oil they produce.
The countries may, therefore, be classed as follows :
(1) Countries not consuming fuelwood (or with a minute per capita consumption): Cyprus, Israel, Libya, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman;(2) Countries that consume small amounts of fuelwood (from 0.05 to 0.1 m³/inhab./ year): Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, South and North Yemen;
(3) Countries consuming large amounts of fuelwood (from 0.2 to 0.8/person/year): Tunisia, Iraq, Morocco, Algeria, Turkey.
In certain mountainous zones fuelwood requirements are undoubtedly much higher; this is the case in the massifs of North Africa, Iraq and Turkey, where fuelwood requirements are at least 1.5 m³/person/year.
(a) Natural formations
The documents concerning estimation of the wood cover are often erroneous or incomplete ¹. Nevertheless, an attempt has been made to give for each country an estimate of the wood cover, distinguishing between:
¹ The countries in the group considered here are not covered by the FAO/UNEP Study on tropical forest resources.1. Mediterranean forests of evergreen trees with small, hard leaves;
2. Temperate deciduous forests;
3. Mediterranean forests of needle-leaved conifers almost always evergreen;
4. Steppes and pseudo-steppes;
5. Shrub deserts;
6. Desert solontchak vegetation.
For these 6 types of vegetation the following fuelwood yields have been used:
Type 1 - abbreviation = MH = 1 m³/ha/year
Type 2 - abbreviation = TH = 0.5 m³/ha/year
Type 3 - abbreviation = MS = 0.5 m³/ha/year
Type 4 - abbreviation = nH1 = 0.2 m³/ha/year
Type 5 - abbreviation = nH2 = 0.04 m³/ha/year
Type 6 - abbreviation = nH3 = 0.02 m³/ha/year
It is evident that natural forest formations constitute a limited source of supply of fuelwood in the countries concerned. This is illustrated in the following table:
TABLE 16 - NATURAL FOREST FORMATIONS: FUELWOOD AVAILABILITY IN 1980
|
Countries |
Area of natural formations 1 000 ha |
Population (millions) |
Available supply m³/year |
||||||||
|
MH |
MS+TH |
nH1 |
NH2NH3 |
Total area |
Total |
Urban |
Rural |
Total 1 000 m³/year |
Per inhabitant |
Per rural inhabitant |
|
|
Lebanon |
20 |
50 |
65 |
E |
1 040 |
3.3 |
1.5 . |
1.8 |
51 |
0.015 |
0.028 |
|
Egypt |
0 |
0 |
2 |
5 000 |
100 145 |
42.1 |
17 |
25.1 |
15 |
0.0006 |
0.0006 |
|
Jordan |
8 |
28 |
90 |
E |
9 774 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
31 |
0.013 |
0.02 |
|
Syria |
40 |
47 |
150 |
450 |
18 518 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
92 |
0.010 |
0.013 |
|
Sub - total |
. |
- |
- |
|
|
56.2 |
20.8 |
35.4 |
189 |
- |
- |
|
Tunisia |
70 |
150 |
330 |
120 |
16 415 |
6.5 |
0.8 |
5.7 |
181 |
0.027 |
0.032 |
|
Iraq |
800 |
700 |
370 |
1 000 |
43 492 |
13.1 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
1 217 |
0.093 |
0.19 |
|
Morocco |
200 |
200 |
4 800 |
2 000 |
44 505 |
20.3 |
6.4 |
13.9 |
600 |
0.029 |
0.043 |
|
Algeria |
820 |
1 360 |
1 300 |
1 100 |
238 174 |
18.3 |
5.0 |
13.3 |
1 663 |
0.091 |
0.125 |
|
Turkey |
2 000 |
3 100 |
13 300 |
2 200 |
78 058 |
45.3 |
16 |
29.3 |
5 546 |
0.123 |
0.189 |
|
TOTAL |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
103.5 |
34.4 |
69.2 |
9 207 |
|
|
It will be noted that the resources derived from natural stands are very small for all countries.
(b) Forest plantations, row plantations, farm woodlots and fruit-tree plantations (vines, olives).
The following table gives an estimate of the total annual supply from this type of woody resource:
TABLE 17 - ANNUAL FUELWOOD SUPPLY - OTHER RESOURCES (million m³/yr)
|
Country |
Wood from forest plantations |
Other woody resources |
Total |
|
Lebanon |
12 |
25 |
37 |
|
Egypt |
40 |
121 |
161 |
|
Jordan |
48 |
5 |
53 |
|
Syria |
40 |
24 |
64 |
|
Sub-total |
180 |
175 |
355 |
|
Tunisia |
188 |
670 |
858 |
|
Iraq |
108 |
300 |
408 |
|
Morocco |
2 360 |
280 |
2 640 |
|
Algeria |
1 600 |
300 |
1 900 |
|
Turkey |
1 600 |
1 790 |
3 390 |
|
TOTAL |
5 856 |
3 340 |
9 196 |
TABLE 18; WOODY RESOURCES UTILIZABLE AS FUELWOOD
|
Country |
Natural formations |
Others |
Total |
Totals/inhabitant |
|
|
Total |
Rural |
||||
|
1 000 m³/year |
m³/year |
||||
|
Lebanon |
51 |
37 |
88 |
0.027 |
0.049 |
|
Egypt |
15 |
161 |
176 |
0.004 |
0.007 |
|
Jordan |
31 |
53 |
84 |
0.036 |
0.056 |
|
Syria |
92 |
64 |
156 |
0.018 |
0.022 |
|
Tunisia |
181 |
858 |
1 039 |
0.150 |
0.182 |
|
Iraq |
1 217 |
408 |
1 625 |
0.124 |
0.235 |
|
Morocco |
600 |
2 640 |
3 240 |
0.160 |
0.247 |
|
Algeria |
1 663 |
1 900 |
3 563 |
0.192 |
0.267 |
|
Turkey |
5 546 |
3 390 |
8 936 |
0.197 |
0.304 |
It will be noticed that the two groups of countries also differ as regards resources, those with low fuelwood consumption having the lowest supplies. Considering its big population, Egypt has extremely small per capita supplies.
If one compares the theoretical supplies per inhabitant with the needs indicated in paragraph 5.2.1, it will be seen that all the countries studied have a fuelwood deficit. This deficit is small in volume, but important as a percentage of overall needs for the low-consumption countries, which can, therefore, content themselves with importing small amounts of wood in order to meet their requirements. This does not seem to be true for Egypt, whose deficit is much greater. Admittedly the fuelwood consumption figures usually put forward for Egypt are 10 times less than those given in this study. The truth probably lies between the two. In any event Egypt has a fuelwood deficit. The overall deficit is much greater for the big-consumption countries (0.3 to 0.5 m³/inhabitant/year in the plains and 0.8 to 1 m³/inhabitant/year in the mountainous areas) and leads to over-cutting of the existing woody vegetation and hence progressive degradation of this vegetation. Finally, in certain extreme cases there is acute scarcity and the populations, despite the use of animal dung as fuel, are obliged to reduce their consumption, in particular for heating, which results in high mortality among old people and children (this applies particularly to eastern Turkey).
TABLE 19: OVERALL FUELWOOD BALANCE IN 1980
|
Country |
Needs |
Annual supply |
Balance (total deficit) |
Average deficit refers only to rural pop. |
||||
|
Per inhabitant ¹ |
Total |
|||||||
|
Rural |
Urban |
Rural |
Urban |
Total |
||||
|
m³/year |
1 000 m³/year |
1 000 m³/year |
m³/inhab./yr |
|||||
|
Lebanon |
0.1 |
0.02 |
180 |
30 |
210 |
88 |
122 |
0.067 |
|
Egypt |
0.03 |
0.005 |
753 |
85 |
838 |
176 |
622 |
0.026 |
|
Jordan |
0.05 |
0.02 |
75 |
16 |
91 |
84 |
7 |
E |
|
Syria |
0.05 |
0.01 |
350 |
15 |
365 |
156 |
209 |
0.030 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tunisia |
0.5 |
0.1 |
2 850 |
80 |
2930 |
1 039 |
1 891 |
0.33 |
|
Iraq |
0.5 |
0.1 |
3 450 |
620 |
4 070 |
1 625 |
2 445 |
0.35 |
|
Morocco |
0.8 |
0.1 |
11 120 |
640 |
11 760 |
3 240 |
8 520 |
0.61 |
|
Algeria |
0.8 |
0.1 |
10 640 |
500 |
11 140 |
3 560 |
7 580 |
0.56 |
|
Turkey |
0.8 |
0.1 |
23 440 |
1 600 |
25 040 |
8 936 |
16 104 |
0.51 |
¹ In these figures the situation in certain mountainous regions of Morocco, Algeria and Turkey has been taken into account to raise the average fuelwood requirement.
5.3.1 Growth in population and needs
5.3.2 Changes in wood energy resources
5.3.3 Balance foreseeable in the year 2000
The following table gives the United Nations forecasts for the population concerned:
TABLE 20: POPULATION TRENDS - 1980-2000
|
Country |
Population 1980 |
Population 2000 |
||||
|
Rural |
Urban |
Total |
Rural |
Urban |
Total |
|
|
million inhabitants |
||||||
|
Lebanon |
1.8 |
1.5 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3 |
6.1 |
|
Egypt |
25.1 |
17 |
42.1 |
30.6 |
34 |
64.6 |
|
Jordan |
1.5 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
4.3 |
|
Syria |
7.0 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
12.8 |
3 |
15.8 |
|
Sub-total |
35.4 |
20.8 |
56.2 |
49.2 |
41.6 |
90.8 |
|
Tunisia |
5.7 |
0.8 |
6.5 |
9.2 |
1.6 |
10.8 |
|
Iraq |
6.9 |
6.2 |
13.1 |
12.0 |
12.4 |
24.4 |
|
Morocco |
13.9 |
6.4 |
20.3 |
23.1 |
12.8 |
35.9 |
|
Algeria |
13.3 |
5.0 |
18.3 |
23.9 |
10.0 |
33.9 |
|
Turkey |
29.3 |
16 |
45.3 |
40.6 |
32.0 |
72.6 |
|
Sub-total |
69.1 |
34.4 |
103.5 |
108.8 |
68.8 |
177.6 |
|
Grant Total |
104.5 |
55.2 |
159.7 |
158.0 |
110.4 |
268.4 |
As regards the population of towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants, it has been assumed, that this will double in 20 years, whence the above distribution. The total population of these nine countries will therefore rise from 160 million in 1980 to 268 million in 2000, or an increase of 67 percent. However, the rural population will increase proportionately more slowly: from 104.5 million in 1980 to 158 million in 2000, or an increase of 51 percent.
It is very difficult to predict what the fuelwood consumption of these populations will be in the year 2000. It may be assumed, however, that the urban populations will consume less and less wood products for domestic energy needs. Account will therefore be taken only of rural consumption, for which it will be assumed that the level of consumption in 2000 will be the same as in 1980. This gives the following overall needs for the year 2000;
TABLE 21: OVERALL FUELWOOD NEEDS IN THE YEAR 2000
|
Country |
Average fuelwood requirement |
Global population |
Total needs |
|
Lebanon |
0.1 |
3.1 |
310 |
|
Egypt |
0.03 |
30.6 |
908 |
|
Jordan |
0.05 |
2.7 |
135 |
|
Syria |
0.05 |
12.8 |
640 |
|
Sub-total |
|
49.2 |
1 993 |
|
Tunisia |
0.5 |
9.2 |
4 600 |
|
Iraq |
0.5 |
12 |
6 000 |
|
Morocco |
0.8 |
23.1 |
18 480 |
|
Algeria |
0.8 |
23.9 |
19 120 |
|
Turkey |
0.8 |
40.6 |
24 480 |
|
Sub-total |
|
108.8 |
72 680 |
|
TOTAL |
|
|
74 673 |
(a) Natural formations
As regards natural formations, it may be assumed that the efforts made by countries with a relatively large forest area and a well-staffed and competent forestry service (Morocco, Algeria, Turkey) will produce fruits with respect to the restoration of degraded forest areas, and that yield per hectare will therefore increase. Unfortunately, in view of the present situation of fuelwood deficit, much of this additional yield from the protected stands will be offset by a loss of capital, and hence of yield, from the other wooded areas. It therefore seems unrealistic to count on a substantial increase in fuelwood production from the natural formations. The levels of supply estimated in 1980 will therefore be retained.
(b) Forest plantations
Many countries have ambitious forest plantation programmes, but recent years have shown that there is often a time lag between the establishment of programmes and their effective implementation. We shall therefore be prudent in estimating the areas that will be planted between 1980 and 2000 and their output.
TABLE 22 - EVOLUTION OF PLANTATION AREAS FROM 1980 TO 2000 AND THEIR LEVEL OF PRODUCTION
|
Country |
Estimated areas of plantations 1980 - 2000 |
Estimate of their fuelwood output in 2000 |
Yield from plantations established before 1980 |
Total supplies in 2000 |
|
Lebanon |
20 |
120 |
12 |
132 |
|
Egypt |
40 |
200 |
40 |
240 |
|
Jordan |
5 |
25 |
48 |
73 |
|
Syria |
40 |
200 |
40 |
240 |
|
Tunisia |
200 |
1 600 |
188 |
1 788 |
|
Iraq |
80 |
640 |
108 |
748 |
|
Morocco |
600 |
4 200 |
2 360 |
6 560 |
|
Algeria |
500 |
3 000 |
1 600 |
4 600 |
|
Turkey |
1 500 |
10 500 |
1 600 |
12 100 |
(c) Other woody resources
The level of supplies in 1980 should increase by 50 percent to take into account:
- the increase in the rural population and hence the development of crop-growing and tree-cultivation;- the establishment in many countries of row plantations, hedges and shelterbelts.
TABLE 23: SUPPLIES OF WOOD MATERIAL AVAILABLE IN 2000 FOR FUELWOOD DOMESTIC AND ARTISANAL CONSUMPTION
|
Country |
Natural formations |
Plantations |
Others |
Total |
Available supplies |
|
Lebanon |
51 |
132 |
37 |
220 |
0.071 |
|
Egypt |
15 |
240 |
160 |
415 |
0.013 |
|
Jordan |
31 |
73 |
7 |
111 |
0.041 |
|
Syria |
92 |
240 |
36 |
368 |
0.029 |
|
Tunisia |
181 |
1 788 |
1 005 |
2 974 |
0.32 |
|
Iraq |
1 217 |
748 |
450 |
2 415 |
0.20 |
|
Morocco |
600 |
6 560 |
420 |
7 580 |
0.33 |
|
Algeria |
1 663 |
4 600 |
450 |
6 713 |
0.28 |
|
Turkey |
5 546 |
12 100 |
2 685 |
20 331 |
0.50 |
The following table summarizes the supplies and needs of woody material for domestic and artisanal consumption in the year 2000.
TABLE 24; SUPPLIES AND NEEDS OF WOODY MATERIAL FOR FUELWOOD DOMESTIC AND ARTISANAL CONSUMPTION IN 2000
|
Country |
Total needs |
Total supplies |
Balance (deficit) |
Deficit per inhabitant |
|
1 000 m³/year |
m³/year |
|||
|
Lebanon |
310 |
220 |
690 |
0.029 |
|
Egypt |
908 |
415 |
493 |
0.016 |
|
Jordan |
135 |
111 |
24 |
E |
|
Syria |
640 |
368 |
272 |
0.021 |
|
Sub-total |
1 993 |
1 114 |
879 |
|
|
Tunisia |
4 600 |
2 974 |
1 626 |
0.17 |
|
Iraq |
6 000 |
2 415 |
3 585 |
0.29 |
|
Morocco |
18 480 |
7 580 |
10 900. |
0.47 |
|
Algeria |
19 120 |
6 713 |
12 407 |
0.51 |
|
Turkey |
24 480 |
20 331 |
4 149 |
0.30 |
|
Sub-total |
72 680 |
40 013 |
32 667 |
|
|
TOTAL |
74 673 |
41 127 |
33 546 |
|
It will be seen, that the low - consumption countries (Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Syria) have reduced their deficit per inhabitant to an extremely low level. There is even a decrease in the total deficit for Lebanon and Egypt. It may be considered that the maximum will have been done as regards wood production and that the development of soft energies (wind and sun) will suffice to make up the deficits noted.
As regards the other countries, situations differ: Turkey will reduce its overall deficit by almost a half thanks to its reforestation efforts; Tunisia will reduce it slightly; but in Morocco, Iraq and above all Algeria it will increase considerably. If these deficits are compared with the total number of people living in rural areas and in towns with less than 100 000 inhabitants, it will be seen that there is an overall decrease in the deficit per inhabitant, particularly for Turkey and Tunisia. But these deficits will nevertheless remain considerable. It may be assumed that they will affect mainly the poor, whose incomes will not permit them access to other energy sources. There will also be a continuation of the activities causing degradation of the existing woody vegetation. The example of Turkey shows that the implementation of large reforestation programmes could constitute an extremely effective solution to this situation of deficit in available woody material for energy needs for all these countries, with the exception of Tunisia, where there are few areas available and utilizable.
